Professional Documents
Culture Documents
I. CHAPTER OVERVIEW
Most of our attention thus far has focused on short- to medium-term changes in economic conditions associated
with the business cycle. The focus here is on longer patterns of growth and the associated level of aggregate
output in the economy. The approach used here is similar to the other models we have constructed in that it
seeks to help explain another facet of the macroeconomy.
Economic growth, by definition, deals with changes in the level of real output, or GDP, in the economy.
Without growth economies eventually stagnate and fade away. The chapter is divided into two parts: the first
discusses several theories and trends in economic growth, the second part focuses on an analysis of economic
growth in the United States.
After you have read Chapter 27 in your text and completed the exercises in this Study Guide chapter, you
should be able to:
1. Discuss the four basic elements/factors in economic growth.
2. Trace the evolution of thought about economic growth from Smith and Malthus to the neoclassical
growth model developed in large measure by Robert Solow.
3. Define capital deepening and explain why it tends to increase the real wage paid to labor and reduce
the return earned by capital. Understand how and why reductions in the return to capital, in the absence of
technological change, can bring capital deepening to a halt in a long-run steady state.
4. Explain how and why technological change can push a factor-price frontier out, thereby illustrating
how a relatively high return to capital can be maintained even as continued capital deepening drives the
capital-labor ratio upward.
5. Summarize briefly the (seven) basic trends in the economic development of advanced economies.
6. Understand the equations of growth accounting, and use that approach to identify the major sources
of growth in per capita output in the United States.
7. Explain how technological change itself can be viewed as an output, produced by the economy.
8. Discuss the explanations of the productivity slowdown in the United States, and its subsequent
increase in the late 1990s.
Match the following terms from column A with their definitions in column B.
A B
__ Economic 1. Process by which the quantity of capital per worker (or the K/L ratio)
growth increases over time.
__ Social overhead 2. An invention or innovation which has no major effect on relative demand for,
capital or returns to, different factors.
__ Technological 3. An invention or innovation that reduces the capital requirement more than the
change labor requirement. This raises wages relative to profits.
__ Neoclassical 4. Level of real GDP the economy would produce if unemployment were at the
growth model “natural rate.”
__ Capital-labor 5. An invention or innovation that reduces the need for labor and increases the
ratio demand for capital. This increases profits relative to wages.
__ Capital 6. Equals the growth of output minus the growth of the weighted sum of all
deepening inputs. (This is another expression for technological change, but do not put this
number with that term.)
__ Aggregate 7. The expansion of a country’s real potential GDP or output.
production function
__ Long-run 8. Total dollar value of capital goods divided by the number of workers, or the
456
Q = A F(K, L, R)
where Q is national output of GDP, A is the level of technological know-how in the economy and K, L, and R
are the capital, labor, and natural resource inputs in the economy. The production function itself simply says
that national output is some function of a combination of the inputs, weighted by the level of technology.
3. Each new stage in the interplay between diminishing marginal productivity and technology affects the
distribution of income between labor and capital. It is important to understand that input proportions can
change as economic growth occurs. Furthermore, diminishing returns can apply even when the supplies of all
inputs are increasing—if they are not increasing at the same rate.
4. Consider a production function depending upon just two inputs, capital and labor. The input with the
slower rate of growth (usually thought to be labor in a developed economy) can, for purposes of studying
growth, be considered to be the (relatively) fixed input, while the other is viewed as the (relatively) variable
input. Since the payment offered to the variable input (capital, in this simple illustration) depends upon its
marginal product, and that marginal product should decline as the supply of capital increases relative to labor,
diminishing returns work against the well-being of the owners of capital. In the extreme, in fact, diminishing
returns might drive the marginal product of capital to zero, so the competitive return earned by capital would
also move to zero. It is, of course, unlikely that this circumstance would come to pass; investment is likely to
stop increasing the capital stock well before the zero-payment level is reached.
Early (i.e., pre-industrial revolution) discussions of economic growth were also based on two inputs, but in
those approaches land was viewed as the fixed factor and labor was variable. With the emphasis on
457
diminishing returns, it was inevitable that economists like Malthus should conclude that labor’s future looked
gloomy.
In more recent discussions, labor has been the fixed input and capital the variable one (because the stock of
capital is growing faster than population). Now the shoe is on the other foot. Capital, it would seem, is the
input that is vulnerable to the ravages of diminishing returns; but capital has another card to play:
technological progress.
The diminishing-returns effect, which continually works against the return to the owners of capital, is more or
less continually being offset by technological advance.
5. Capital deepening occurs when the stock of capital grows more rapidly than the labor force. When we
hold other factors constant, this accounts for the positive (though declining) slope of the aggregate production
function (APF) in Figure 27-4 from your textbook (reproduced here as Figure 27-1). When technology
changes, as in Figure 27-5 from your textbook (here, Figure 27-2), the entire APF schedule will shift. Capital
and technology are the basic ingredients in the neoclassical growth model.
Figure 27-1
Economic Growth Through Capital Deepening
Figure 27-2
Technological Advance Shifts up the Production Possibilities
458
6. Recent theories of economic growth suggest that technological change may itself be an output of the
economic system. Rather than assuming that technology is a “given” or determined exogenously (i.e., outside
the economic system), newer economic models investigate how the private market and public policy contribute
to technological progress.
Many aspects of technological change should also be viewed as public or “nonrival” goods. While new
technologies may be expensive to develop, they tend to be rather inexpensive to reproduce. Further, once
developed, many people and producers can use or share the same technology simultaneously without using it
up. These public good attributes of technology suggest that the private market would tend to underproduce
technology and that the government or public agency should be more involved in its development.
The 0.75 and 0.25 represent the relative contributions of labor and capital, respectively, to economic growth.
There are a couple of intermediate steps between equations (1) and (2). First, subtract (% L growth) from
both sides of the equation. Since the right-hand side of equation (1) already has 0.75 x (% L growth) in it, we
are left with negative one-quarter of (% L growth) on the right-hand side. This leaves:
We can combine the capital and labor growth terms on the right-hand side of equation (la) since they are both
premultiplied by 0.25:
Finally, when you calculate percentage changes, and two terms are subtracted, you can first form them into a
ratio or fraction and then calculate the percentage change.
For example, let:
The percentage change in Q is 5 percent, and the percentage change in L is 1 percent. So, we could write:
% Q growth - % L growth = 5% - 1% = 4%
459
Alternatively, we could first form the terms above into an output-labor ratio, and then calculate the percentage
change in that ratio:
The percentage change in the ratio is 0.0396. (If the changes are very small, or if we calculate the change using
the midpoint of the range, rather than the initial value as the base, then the two answers would be identical!)
This all leads to Samuelson and Nordhaus’ second equation:
About 60 percent of the growth in output in the United States can be attributed to increases in capital and labor.
The rest is a residual factor and can, in large part, be attributed to technology and factors related to it: research
and development, innovation, economies of scale, scientific advances, and education.
3. When compared with the period from 1948 to 1973, the rate of productivity growth in the United States
from 1973 to the early 1990s slowed dramatically. While no clear-cut explanation for the productivity
slowdown exists, studies point to several factors that have become more prevalent since the early 1970s.
Stricter environmental regulations, the sharp increase in energy prices, a deterioration in labor quality, and a
disproportionate share of research and development dollars (when compared to other industrialized economies)
allocated to national defense and space exploration have all been proposed as contributing factors to the
productivity slowdown.
However, during the late 1990s there was a dramatic increase in the labor productivity in the United States.
Economists had been expecting to find increases in productivity due to the increased utilization of computers,
and during the last few years of the century labor productivity returned to the levels it had been during the late
1960s and early 1970s. Economists attribute about half of the increase in labor productivity to the widespread
investment in computer hardware and software as well as an overall increase in the productivity of the computer
itself. It is estimated that the other half of the labor productivity increase is due to the strong growth in the
U.S. economy and more accurate measurement of inflation indexes to reduce their upward bias. (For any given
increase in GDP, the lower the measurement of inflation, the higher the real growth in output.)
V. HELPFUL HINTS
l. It has been mentioned previously that economic growth is always measured in real terms. Growth is also
usually measured in percent per time period.
2. It may be helpful to keep in mind that when economists talk about the steady state, the level of
technology is held constant. As long as technology keeps changing, an economy cannot be in a steady state
position.
3. As we move along the aggregate production function (APF) in Figure 27-1, we add more capital per
worker, holding all other factors constant. This is capital deepening.
4. The APF schedule will shift if there is a change in technology or natural resources.
5. If an invention or innovation is capital-saving, the firm will demand more labor relative to capital.
Correspondingly, the amount of money paid in wages relative to profits will increase.
6. The classical approach to economics includes, for the most part, ideas that were developed in the eighteenth
and nineteenth centuries. Economists of that time did not consider themselves as “classicals”—that is just
what we call them now. Some of their ideas are very powerful and relevant today.
Neoclassical models are modern (twentieth-century) refinements of classical ideas.
These questions are organized by topic from the chapter outline. Choose the best answer from the options
available.
d. threefold, and operation of the diminishing-returns law has significantly reduced the capital-output
ratio.
e. eightfold, but the capital-output ratio has not increased significantly despite the diminishing-returns
law.
18. Since 1900, the share of wages and salaries in national income:
a. has significantly increased.
b. has remained about constant, showing only a very slight upward trend.
c. has significantly fallen, except for a period during and immediately after World War II.
d. rose fairly steadily until about 1930 and remained constant until 1945 (excluding World War II), but
has fallen perceptibly since then.
e. is not correctly described by any of the above.
19. According to the Council of Economic Advisors, how much of the increase in labor productivity in the late
1990s was due to the increased utilization of computers?
a. None.
b. About half of the increase in labor productivity was due to the computer.
c. About three quarters of the increase in labor productivity was due to the computer.
d. Nearly all of the increase in labor productivity was due to the computer.
e. None of the above. Labor productivity did not increase in the late 1990s.
20. Which of the following factors contributed to the increase in productivity in the late 1990s?
a. The productivity explosion in computer technology.
b. The widespread increase in investment in computer hardware and software.
c. Improvements in the measurement of price indexes that removed their upward bias.
d. Strong growth in the U.S. economy from 1995 through 1999.
e. All of the above.
21. Numerous trends of economic growth are seen in data for the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries.
These trends include:
a. that real wages and output per hour worked have risen steadily.
b. that real interest rate has shown no major trend.
c. that the capital-output ratio has declined.
d. A, B, and C are correct.
e. none of the above.
The following problems are designed to help you apply the concepts that you learned in the chapter.
If the stock of capital (i.e., machinery tools, and other such equipment) were to increase gradually over time,
then we would expect to see at least some accompanied technological improvement, i.e., the appearance of
different and more efficient capital goods. Suppose, for the sake of illustration, though, that we assume that
this type of technological change is absent.
b. An increase in capital with labor or population fixed—or more generally, an increase in the ratio of
total capital to total labor—would lead to (an increase / a decrease) in the return to each unit of capital
and (an increase / a decrease) in the wage paid to labor.
3. Consider the process indicated in question 2 in more detail. Designate the variable input capital as K, the
fixed input labor as L, and quantity of total output as Q. Then, with no technological progress, the following
results should be expected if K were increased relative to L:
a. The capital-labor ratio K/L should (increase / decrease).
b. The capital-output ratio K/Q should (increase / decrease). When the law of diminishing returns is
operating, any increase in the variable input yields an increase in output Q that is (less than / exactly /
more than) proportionate to the increase in K.
c. The interest or profit rate (price of K per unit) should (increase / decrease), and the wage rate (price of
L) should (increase / decrease) as the K/L ratio increases.
d. The fractional or percentage share of total output going to K owners (must increase / might increase /
must decrease).
Figure 27-3
a. Thus even though K is increasing, the shift in position of the APF curve means that the marginal
product of K will (increase / decrease). The rate of interest or profit (per unit of capital) will thus (fall /
rise) relative to labor’s wage rate.
b. Combining the two effects (diminishing returns and technological progress), we see that the increase in
the capital stock (raises / lowers) total output.
c. Technological progress (raises / lowers) total output. The increase in the capital stock (disregarding
technological progress) (raises / lowers) the demand for labor. Hence we would expect labor’s wage or
price to (increase / decrease).
464
d. Moving against this trend is technological progress, which (increases / decreases) the interest or profit
rate and tends to (increase / decrease) the demand for labor.
Figure 27-4
5. The facts of economic growth in the United States are summarized below. Refer to Figure 27-6 from the
text, which has been reproduced here as Figure 27-4 (on previous page), to deduce the answers.
a. Since 1900, the labor force has (remained roughly constant / nearly doubled / approximately
tripled / increased more than sixfold). The stock of capital has, meanwhile, (remained roughly
constant / nearly doubled / increased nearly fourfold / increased approximately eightfold / increased
by more than elevenfold). That is to say, the capital stock, in proportion to the labor force, has
(increased / decreased) by a factor of approximately (1 / 2 / 3 / 6). There (has / has not) been a (small /
significant) deepening of capital.
b. Disregarding technological change, if both capital and labor had increased eightfold, then we would
have expected to see output increase by a factor of 8. With labor only tripled, though, we would expect to
see output increase by (more / less) than 8 times its value in 1900.
c. In fact, however, output has increased by a factor of approximately (3 / 8 / 11). This means that the
ratio of the capital stock to annual output has (increased / remained about constant / decreased
slightly). Things (have / have not) worked out as the simple law of diminishing returns would indicate,
the reason evidently being (that the law has been incorrectly set out / the effects of technological
change / the higher real wage paid to labor).
d. Real wages (have risen / have fallen / show no clear trend either up or down). The interest or
profit rate—the “price of capital”—(has risen / has fallen / shows no clear trend either up or down).
e. Output per worker-hour, or Q/L, has (risen / remained constant / fallen). The increase in the wage
465
rate (has significantly exceeded / has been approximately equal to / has fallen behind) the (increase /
decrease) in output per worker-hour.
6. Seven basic trends in major economic variables have been typical of growth in the United States as well as
in most developed countries. Indicate the direction of each in the spaces provided below:
a. The capital-labor ratio has _______.
b. The real wage has _______.
c. The share paid to labor has _______.
d. The real rate of interest has _______.
e. After _______ from 1920 through 1945, the capital-output ratio has _____ since 1950.
f. The savings-output ratio has _______.
g. Output has _______.
7. a. Trend f, combined with a small level of net foreign investment, implies that the investment-output
ratio has (risen / remained steady / fallen).
b. Trends a and b are consistent with the neoclassical model of growth (only when technological
change is introduced / even without technological change).
c. Trends d and e (do / do not) depend on technological change because no progress would always
combine with a deepening capital stock to predict (higher / lower) real interest rates and (higher / lower)
capital-output ratios.
8. Complete Table 27-1 on the basis of the growth-accounting procedures presented in the text.
TABLE 27-1
Case I Case II Case III
Rate of growth of labor (%) 1 0 1
Rate of growth of capital (%) 4 4 5
Rate of technological change (%) 2 2 2
Rate of growth of output (%) __ __ __
Rate of growth of output per worker (%) __ __ __
Answer the following questions, making sure that you can explain the work you did to arrive at the answers.
9 Growth accounting
6 Total factor productivity
4 Potential GDP
TABLE 27-1
Case I Case 11 Case 111
Rate of growth of output (%) 3.75 3.00 4.00
Rate of growth of output
per worker (So) 2.75 3.00 3.00
3. This question tempts the reader to confuse stocks and flows. The wealth of a nation and its citizens is a
stock variable—it is measured at a particular point in time. Annual economic growth is a flow variable—it
measures how a nation’s output (or wealth) is changing. India and Turkey may have higher rates of growth, but
their respective stocks of wealth are still far below that of the United States.
4. Technology is an important component of the neoclassical growth model. Technological change means
that more output can be produced with a given amount of capital and labor. Technological change
counterbalances the law of diminishing marginal returns (to capital) and helps keep the real wage of labor from
falling.
468