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V.

Kumar

A Theory of Customer Valuation:


Concepts, Metrics, Strategy,
and Implementation
Customer value refers to the economic value of the customer’s relationship with the firm. This study approaches the
topic of customer value for measuring, managing, and maximizing customer contributions by proposing a customer
valuation theory (CVT) based on economic principles that conceptualizes the generation of value from customers to
firms. The author reviews the established economic theories for valuing investor assets (e.g., stocks) and draws a
comparison to valuing customer contributions. Furthermore, the author recognizes the differences in the guiding
principles between valuing stocks and valuing customers in proposing CVT. Using CVT, the author discusses the
concept of customer lifetime value (CLV) as the metric that can provide a reliable, forward-looking estimate of direct
customer value. In addition, economic models to estimate CLV, ways to manage CLV using portfolio management
principles, and strategies to maximize CLV are discussed in detail. The author extends the customer value concept by
discussing ways that a customer can add value to the firm indirectly through incentivized referrals, social media
influence, and feedback. Finally, the benefits of CVT to multiple constituencies are offered.

Keywords: customer valuation theory, customer lifetime value, customer engagement, customer profitability, stock
valuation

ny sustainable business first creates value for its customers, and products, the challenge in this context for

A customers through firm offerings1 and, in the process,


derives value from its customers in the form of profit.2
This duality of roles performed by firms and customers to
firms is to dynamically align resources spent on customers
and products to simultaneously generate both value to cus-
tomers and value from customers. In addition, the volatility
derive and deliver value best summarizes the firm–customer and vulnerability in customer cash flows differentially affects
relationship from a value standpoint. However, this value is overall firm profitability. These changes can be due to both
distributed heterogeneously across customers. Because it is customer actions and firm actions. For instance, especially
the firms/decision makers who allocate resources to markets, in business markets, leadership change in the customer
organization influences procurement decisions that can
result in changes in future cash flows. Similarly, customer
1“Firm offering” refers to physical goods, services, brands, or a
life events (e.g., getting divorced, becoming empty nesters)
combination thereof.
2“Customer” denotes both an end consumer and a business can also affect future cash flows. Therefore, firms look for
customer. ways to better manage cash flows (Srivastava, Shervani, and
Fahey 1999).
To better understand and manage the value creation and
V. Kumar (VK) is the Regents Professor, Richard and Susan Lenny
Distinguished Chair, & Professor in Marketing, and Executive Director of the cash flow management process, this article proposes a theory to
Center for Excellence in Brand and Customer Management, and the Di- value future customer contributions: the customer valuation
rector of the PhD Program in Marketing, J. Mack Robinson College of theory (CVT). The CVT focuses on two aspects of customer
Business, Georgia State University (email: vk@gsu.edu). VK is also financial contributions: their nature (i.e., direct and indirect) and
honored as the Chang Jiang Scholar at Huazhong University of Science their scope (i.e., breadth and depth). In doing so, the CVT
and Technology; Fellow, Hagler Institute for Advanced Study, Texas A&M informs firms about (1) the conceptualization of value gener-
University; and the Senior Fellow, Indian School of Business, Hyderabad.
ation from customers and (2) the ways and means available to
The author thanks the senior editor, Robert Meyer, and the JM review team
for their valuable comments during the review process. This study has been generate and maximize value from customers. In this regard, the
presented in many universities worldwide over the past few years and has power of the customer lifetime value (CLV) metric to accurately
benefited significantly from the audience feedback. The author also thanks value a customer’s future contributions is established. By ap-
Bharath Rajan for his assistance in the preparation of this manuscript, and plying the CLV metric, this study demonstrates how firms can
Renu for copyediting an earlier version of the manuscript. Robert Meyer, use CVT to (1) value customer assets, (2) manage customer
Senior Editor for AMA Journals, served as the editor charged with pro- portfolios, and (3) nurture profitable customers. The robustness
cessing this article through review and final acceptance per the AMA policy
on submissions by journal editors. Praveen Kopalle served as area editor for
of the CVT is also highlighted through its successful imple-
this article. mentation across various types of markets (consumer and
business), scenarios (contractual and noncontractual business

© 2018, American Marketing Association Journal of Marketing


ISSN: 0022-2429 (print) Vol. 82 (January 2018), 1–19
1547-7185 (electronic) 1 DOI: 10.1509/jm.17.0208
settings), contexts (domestic and global), and industries (e.g., To assist investors in the stock valuation process, several
insurance, airline, retail). Furthermore, the widespread positive approaches, such as the discounted cash flow models, capital
impact of implementing CVT on multiple constituents of the asset pricing models, and the arbitrage pricing theory, among
market such as the firms, the customers, the employees, the others, are available. The resulting stock valuation would
society, and the environment is also identified. then inform investors about the configuration of the portfolio
using approaches such as the modern portfolio theory (Elton
et al. 2014).
Valuing Assets: A Contextual In the case of the firm investing in its customers, the val-
Background uation of customers also forms a crucial component. If the
principles of the stock valuation approach were applied to
What is an asset? Despite the conflicting viewpoints on the role
manage investments in customers, firms ideally should perform
and constituents of an asset or firm resource (Mahoney and
the following three actions: (1) identify and invest in the “right”
Pandian 1992), an asset can be broadly defined as any physical,
customers, (2) form a customer portfolio (or customer base)
organizational, or human attribute that enables the firm to consisting of favorable customers, and (3) constantly reevaluate
generate and implement strategies that improve its efficiency
the portfolio to ensure that the firm is maximizing its future
and effectiveness in the marketplace (Barney 1991). Given the
gains. In reality, performing each of these three actions is not
prominence of assets in deploying firm strategies and gaining
always possible because of certain challenges.
competitive advantage, the next question is, What makes them
The comparison between the case of the investor and the
valuable? Here too, scholars from diverse fields such as finance,
firm shows the similarity in how they manage their respective
industrial organization, management, and economics have
assets (stocks vs. customers). So, can the principles that guide
presented several approaches to decode an asset’s value. With
the valuation of stocks be applied in valuing customers? To
specific reference to marketing, academics and practitioners
answer this question, the challenges of valuing customers must
consider customers as assets and have instated strategies that
first be understood.
manage and nurture customers rather than use them only for
First, firms need a reliable method to identify and invest in
specific marketing actions. In this regard, studies have in- the “right” customers. While it may seem straightforward to say
vestigated customer asset valuation from various viewpoints
that the “right” customers are the ones who exhibit the highest
such as firm valuation (Gupta, Lehmann, and Stuart 2004;
value potential, the specifics may not be so apparent. Tradi-
Kumar and Shah 2009), customer management (Berger et al.
tionally, value measures have focused on repeat purchases,
2002), and financial performance (Hogan et al. 2002), among
acquisition cost, retention cost, tenure, and share of wallet,
others. The differing approaches to asset valuation not-
among others. Thus, a valuation approach that can accu-
withstanding, the true value of an asset is most often observed
rately capture these intricacies for firms to identify the most
in its interactions in the external marketplace. This leads to the
valuable customers is essential.
next question: How are assets valued? To better understand
Second, configuring a portfolio of the most valuable
the approach to value assets, consider two scenarios—an
customers is easier said than done. The customer characteristics
investor investing in stocks, and a firm investing in its
(e.g., consumption pattern, lifestyle habits) that determine
customers. their value potential have been found to change over time
In the case of the investor (which applies to both individual
(Kumar 2013). As a result, periodic evaluation of customer
and institutional investors), the valuation of stocks forms a
value measures (e.g., profitability) is a necessary and reliable
crucial component. Drawing on the valuation, the investor
method to help managers in the vital job of keeping track
typically performs three routine actions: (s)he (1) selects and
of changing customer characteristics. Furthermore, regulated
invests in stocks that show potential for growth, (2) constructs a
monopolies such as telephone and municipality services are
portfolio of stocks and bonds, and (3) constantly rebalances the
often required to cross-subsidize one group of customers with
portfolio to ensure maximum future gains. An important
another (e.g., rural and urban customers). In such cases, firms
feature common to all these actions is the element of risk.
may not be able to build the ideal portfolio of customers.
This is because risk affects the volatility and vulnerability
Third, rebalancing of customers is not a feasible strategy.
of cash flows, which, in turn, affect the stock value and
Although cases have been reported in which companies have
ultimately reflect in the overall firm value.3 As a result, in- fired customers because profitability concerns (Reardon 2007),
vestors aiming to avoid risk ideally should (1) invest in stocks
this is not a common practice. For instance, many banks are
that indicate a steady stream of cash flow, (2) construct a
unable to “fire” the unprofitable customers, especially if they are
portfolio of similar stocks so that their overall future value is
from lower socioeconomic groups or minority groups. In ad-
secured and maximized, and (3) constantly evaluate the earnings
dition, churn is a challenge that firms constantly face. While a
potential of the stocks in their portfolio and reconfigure the
firm may want to have profitable customers, holding on to those
portfolio by selling risky stocks and buying robust stocks.
customers typically poses challenges for the firm. Therefore,
firms need a reliable way to discern how to manage unprofitable
3I recognize that the valuation of a company is affected by many
customers as well as ways to nurture profitable customers.
other factors (including nonmonetary factors such as competition
and mergers and acquisitions) beyond the focal firm’s cash flows. Therefore, in this study, I present the case for a val-
However, this example is designed to illustrate the importance of uation approach that is specifically designed to value
cash flows in determining firm value. I thank an anonymous re- customer assets. In doing so, I demonstrate why the stock
viewer for raising this distinction. valuation approach is not readily applicable to valuing

2 / Journal of Marketing, January 2018


customer assets and show how customer assets are uniquely concepts from financial theories into marketing applications
positioned to provide value to the firm. include the introduction of customer beta that measures the
riskiness of customers (Dhar and Glazer 2003), a customer
relationship scorecard based on customers’ risk–return char-
Theoretical Approach to Valuing acteristics (Ryals 2003), and the management of customer
Assets segments using portfolio theory (Bolton and Tarasi 2015;
The theoretical underpinnings of how an investor values stocks Buhl and Heinrich 2008; Groening et al. 2014). In light of
and a firm values its customers can be understood through these efforts to apply financial theories for valuing customers,
the following questions: some principal differences between finance and marketing
must be noted. Figure 1 illustrates these differences as well as
• How do firms view customer assets? how they ultimately affect firm value. They are as follows:
• Why are financial theories inappropriate for valuing customers?
• It is possible to invest money into stocks and achieve a higher
• How does customer valuation work? amount in return. However, this is not possible in the case of
customers. Firms know that beyond a certain point, investing
How Do Firms View Customer Assets? more money in their customers will yield a lower rate of
return. In other words, whereas the investment-to-earnings
Research on customer asset management dates to models that relationship can be linear in the case of stocks, it is nonlinear
explored how consumers make purchase decisions (Howard in the case of customers.
and Sheth 1969). The research insights generated since then • Investors can be fairly certain about a stock’s “life expec-
have led to the consideration of customers as integral to or- tancy” and the survival of that firm. However, firms that
ganizations (Gupta and Lehmann 2005; Shah et al. 2006). In invest in customers can make no such conclusion about their
this regard, studies have considered customers to be intangible customers. In other words, investors have relatively more
information about how long the stocks in which they have
assets of a firm (Hunt and Morgan 1995; Srivastava, Shervani, invested will remain in trading, compared with firms’ knowledge
and Fahey 1998) and have proposed approaches to valuing and of how long their customers will remain their customers.
managing their contributions to the firm (Bolton, Lemon, and • In the case of widely held stocks (i.e., those that are not
Verhoef 2004; Reinartz and Kumar 2000). closely controlled by investors and fund owners), if a stock
Studies have also focused on applying customer value to begins to perform poorly, the investor has the option of
enhance firm performance from various perspectives such as the quickly divesting that stock. After divesting, the investor has
role of customer acquisition strategies (Lewis 2006), customer the option of either buying another stock or just holding on to
retention strategies (Reinartz, Thomas, and Kumar 2005), the cash. However, firms typically do not have prior in-
formation about how much value a customer is going to bring
customer loyalty (Reinartz and Kumar 2002), customer in. Furthermore, changes in customer lifestyles may make
satisfaction (Anderson and Mittal 2000), resource allo- customers less profitable or may even cause losses. In such a
cation (Petersen and Kumar 2015), and customer metrics case, the firm typically does not “divest” of such loss-making
(Petersen et al. 2009; Srinivasan and Hanssens 2009), among customers but has to find ways to manage them appropriately.
others. Such attempts continue to shape profitable customer This is also true in certain business settings (e.g., oil industry)
management (based on future customer profitability) for both in which it is difficult for suppliers to exit a customer re-
lationship. In some cases, such situations can lead to spec-
contractual and noncontractual business settings.
ulative business practices such as stockpiling. In other words,
Research on customer value has also explored the volatility the value and volume of investments in stocks is easily scalable,
and uncertainty of future revenue contributions. In this regard, compared with the investments in customers.
studies have identified that certain behavioral drivers on the part • Investors routinely buy and sell stocks that will increase the
of customers (e.g., level of purchases, product return behavior) value to the portfolio and/or minimize the risk of losing value.
determine the level and volatility of cash flows (Kumar, Shah, However, firms that invest in customers do not have the
and Venkatesan 2006; Reinartz and Kumar 2003). Therefore, luxury of hiring and firing customers. As a result, a low-value
the management of behavioral drivers is critical in valuing customer is still likely to be part of a firm’s customer port-
folio, and firms will have to find ways to manage these
customers.
customers in such a manner that they do not lose firm value.
In other words, rebalancing a stock portfolio is easier than
Why Are Financial Theories Inappropriate for rebalancing a customer portfolio.
Valuing Customers? • Although investors value their investments in widely held
Prior studies have investigated the application of financial stocks in line with the projected cash flows of the respective
theories to marketing decisions. For instance, Cardozo and stocks,4 firms that have invested in their customers assess the
value of their customers on the basis of customer contribu-
Smith (1983) proposed an approach for making product tions to firm revenue, which determines the stock price and,
portfolio decisions by applying the financial portfolio ultimately, the firm’s value. Recognizing this chain of impact
theory. However, Devinney, Stewart, and Shocker (1985) is important in developing a metric that can effectively track
highlighted critical differences regarding applying a financial the firm’s value creation. In other words, whereas the impact
theory in a product decision setting. Similarly, Tarasi et al. of investing in customers can be observed on the value of
(2011) demonstrated the application of financial portfolio stocks (and, ultimately, on firm value), investing in widely
theory for making customer portfolio decisions, which
subsequently attracted critical review in the literature (Billett 4Exceptions to this are initial public offerings wherein the stock
2011; Selnes 2011). Other efforts that have incorporated value increases as new customers are added.

A Theory of Customer Valuation / 3


FIGURE 1
Differences in Valuing Stocks Versus Customers

Firm Value

Stock Valuation Principles Customer Valuation Principles

Investment-to-earnings ratio Investment-to-earnings ratio


for stocks can be linear for customers is nonlinear
Information on the tenure of a Information on the tenure of a
stock being traded is more customer is less accurate
accurate The value and volume of
The value and volume of investments in customers are
investments in stocks are not easily scalable
easily scalable Rebalancing a customer
Rebalancing a portfolio is portfolio is relatively difficult
relatively easier Sentiments do not play an
Guide Sentiments play an important important role in the valuation Valuation
Valuation of Guide Valuation of
role in the valuation Speculation does not play an of
Stocks Noncustomer
Speculation plays an important role in the valuation Customers Assets
important role in the valuation Identification of risks is
Identification of risks is relatively difficult
relatively easier Risk diversification is based
Risk diversification is based the risk’s impact on customer
on the risk’s systematic or profitability Firms
Investors unsystematic nature Investments in customers can
Investments in stocks do not affect stock value
(Individuals
affect customer value Customer value prediction is
and
Stock value prediction is more accurate in the short run
Institutions)
possible only for the long run than in the long run
Passive approach to Active approach to anticipating
managing future changes and managing future changes

held stocks has a limited observable impact on the value of when prices rise and selling when prices fall, then an increase
customers. in the number of forward-looking speculators can increase
• Using financial theories, it is possible for investors to identify volatility about the asset fundamentals (De Long et al. 1990).
the types of risks to which stocks are exposed (e.g., given the In contrast, speculation does not play a major role when
economic cycles) and recognize the ones that can be di- assessing the value of a customer. In other words, the im-
versified from the ones that cannot. However, firms that have portance of speculation is higher in the valuation of stocks
invested in their customers cannot readily identify the risks than in the valuation of customers.
from customer contributions, or their impact on profitability. • Drawing on known future discounted cash flows, an investor
In other words, it is relatively easier to identify (and therefore typically decides on his or her choice of investment. That is,
manage) risks arising from investments in stocks compared the options are limited to either investment or divestment.
with investments in customers. As a result, investors generally cannot influence the future
• Investor sentiments play an important role in investment cash flow patterns of a firm to change the course of their own
decisions (Weber and Johnson 2009). Stock market opera- actions. In other words, financial theories offer a passive
tions involve investor sentiments regarding a firm’s future approach to managing investments, whereas customer
performance expectations, which, in turn, determine the level management requires an active management approach.
of attractiveness of that firm in the industry. In contrast, the • The volatility and vulnerability of stocks make it difficult for
influence of investor sentiment is not a significant force when investors to predict stock returns in the short run. Short-term
valuing a customer’s direct contribution. However, for returns are difficult to predict because of their random walk
customers who are based in politically unstable regions, the feature (Jensen 1978; Malkiel 1995). In addition, Kumar,
valuation is different more for sentimental reasons than for Ramaswami, and Srivastava (2000) observe that daily returns
economic reasons. In other words, the importance of investor are sensitive to random disturbances in the market. To predict
sentiment is higher in the valuation of stocks than in the stock movements, they offset the effect of random distur-
valuation of customers. bances by considering a longer time period such as a month.
• Speculation also plays an important role in investment de- Using the principles advanced by the capital asset pricing
cisions. For instance, speculation is based on a rational model and the arbitrage pricing theory, the study developed a
betting decision that is known to stabilize asset prices multistage model to study variation in stock returns. The
(Friedman 1953) and is sometimes based on insider trading study found that the addition of significant factors other than
(Kyle 1985). Furthermore, it is known that if the investment the market factors (i.e., cost and supply of money) increases
actions of rational speculators trigger the buying of securities the level of risk, which results in a decrease in the price of the

4 / Journal of Marketing, January 2018


firm. In this regard, appropriately designed marketing actions Transaction behavior. Also known as exchange charac-
directed at the environmental uncertainties (i.e., macroeco- teristics, the transaction behavior broadly includes all the past
nomic factors) can lessen the impact on the firm’s cash flows, and current transaction variables that affect and influence the
because predictions of customer value are accurate in the
short run. Therefore, estimating the value of customers and
customer–firm relationship. The commitment-trust theory
pairing this value with appropriately designed marketing (Morgan and Hunt 1994) proposes that firms try to establish
strategies can place firms on the path to increased financial positive relationships with customers by developing com-
returns. The level of predictive accuracy of customer value, mitment and trust with them. While a customer’s positive
however, declines only in the long run. In other words, a affect influences his or her commitment to the firm, research
more accurate prediction of stock returns is possible only in has also uncovered other dimensions of customer commit-
the long run, compared with the prediction of customer value,
ment. For instance, Allen and Meyer (1990) proposed a three-
which is more accurate in the short run.
component model of commitment (affective, calculative, and
In addition to the financial theories, knowledge from normative). Recently, Keiningham et al. (2015) proposed
behavioral finance is also relevant here. Behavioral finance customer commitment as a five-dimension construct (affective,
literature has argued that some financial phenomena can normative, economic, forced, and habitual). Beyond repeat
reasonably be understood using models in which some agents purchases, purchase habits have been found to play an im-
are not fully rational (Barberis and Thaler 2003). With portant role in determining customer transaction behavior
specific reference to investor behavior, behavioral finance has (Ascarza, Iyengar, and Schleicher 2016; Duhigg 2013). Spe-
explained how certain investor groups behave, the types of cifically, research has reported that customer habits influence the
portfolios investors hold, and investors’ trading patterns future volatility and vulnerability of cash flows (Shah et al.
over time. Barberis and Thaler (2003) trace investor be- 2017) and firm performance (Shah, Kumar, and Kim 2014).
haviors such as having insufficient diversification of port- Furthermore, the importance of primary market research in
folios (Baxter and Jermann 1997), opting for simpler understanding customer behavior patterns has also been
diversification strategies (Benartzi and Thaler 2001), having highlighted, especially in light of the abundance of behavioral
high trading volumes (Barber and Odean 2000), holding on to information made possible by big data (Knowledge@
stocks even if they are decreasing in value (Odean 1998), Wharton 2014). As a result, frequent customer–firm in-
and considering “attention-getting” stocks for their pur- teractions should increase customer trust and commitment
chase decisions (Barber and Odean 1999) to demonstrate in the firm at a faster rate, provided that the interactions are
that investors are not always rational in their investment satisfactory. Therefore,
decisions. This stream of literature has established that in-
vestors’ attitudes and behaviors are of vital importance. In P1: Customer transaction activities significantly influence
customer future profitability.
light of the aforementioned differences between customers
and stocks, I develop the CVT as a robust theory for valuing This proposition has been tested across various industries
customer assets by adopting a different approach than that and markets (business to business [B2B] and business to
used to value stocks. customer [B2C]), and research has found that customer future
profitability is positively influenced by a host of variables,
How Does Customer Valuation Work? including (1) prior customer spending level (Reinartz and
Kumar 2000), (2) customer cross-buying behavior (Kumar,
From the previous discussion of the determinants of customer George, and Pancras 2008; Venkatesan and Kumar 2004), (3)
assets, one of the approaches to value customers in a general the intensity of customer purchases within a product category
form is presented next: (Reinartz and Kumar 2003), and (4) members of rewards
(1) CFPi = fðTransaction behaviori , Marketing costi , programs with the firm (Kumar, Shah, and Venkatesan 2006).
Demographic=firmographic variablesi , In addition, studies have also found the average interpurchase
Economic and environmental factorsÞ,
time and the number of product returns to have a significantly
positive impact on customer future profitability, up to a certain
where CFPi refers to customer future profitability of customer i. threshold (Reinartz and Kumar 2003).
Simply put, the future profitability of the customers depends
on their past and current transaction behaviors, the marketing Marketing cost. Marketing cost can include past, current,
efforts of the firm, the identity and profile of the customers (i.e., and future promotional costs (toward customer acquisition,
demographic variables), and the environment in which these retention, and win-back); technology upgrades; service im-
customers exist (i.e., economic and environmental factors). provements; employee management; and quality control. The
Furthermore, when modeling CFP, statistical issues such as importance of effective management of customer assets to
heterogeneity, endogeneity, and simultaneity are factored in the enhance firm profitability (Bolton, Lemon, and Verhoef 2004)
estimation of such models. Once the CFP is modeled, business has directed research attention toward understanding the impact
intelligence software systems can be used to score CFP, update of marketing expenditures on customer value and actively using
customer information, and rescore CFP on a periodic basis. marketing communication actions (i.e., customer contact
Technology can also be incorporated to target customers on a channels) to maximize customer value. Prior research has
real-time basis through relevant messages in an effort to increase established that well-timed communication efforts (Kumar,
future cash flows. Drawing on this valuation approach, I ad- Venkatesan, and Reinartz 2008) and well-managed content
vance the following testable propositions. (Kim and Kumar 2018) between firms and customers reduces

A Theory of Customer Valuation / 5


the propensity of a customer to quit a relationship (Morgan and Economic and environmental factors. Economic factors
Hunt 1994). However, too much communication has also been such as gross domestic product (GDP) per capita help determine
found to be detrimental to the relationship (Fournier, Dobscha, the consumption pattern of a country. It has been established
and Mick 1998), thereby indicating the presence of an optimal that consumers’ response to macroeconomic factors is a
communication level. function of not just their ability to buy (as measured by current
and expected future income), but also their willingness to buy
P2: Marketing cost nonlinearly influences customer future
profitability. (Katona 1975). This underlying theory explains how various
macroeconomic conditions affect price changes (Gordon, Avi,
Studies have revealed an inverted U-shaped relationship and Yang 2013), changes in consumers’ frame of mind
between marketing contacts (involving rich modes [e.g., sales (Chhaochharia, Korniotis, and Kumar 2011), and overall
personnel contact] and standardized modes [e.g., telephone, household utility (Kamakura and Du 2012), to name a few.
direct mail]) and customer behavior (Reinartz, Thomas, and Furthermore, research has also shown that changes in con-
Kumar 2005; Venkatesan, Kumar, and Bohling 2007). Fur- sumers’ economic constraints have varying effects on their
thermore, in a permission-based marketing context, a firm’s profit-contributing potential. For instance, Sunder, Kumar,
marketing contact policy influences both the length of time a and Zhao (2016) demonstrated that high-CLV customers are
customer stays in an email program and the average amount a least affected by changes in their budgetary constraints when
customer spends on a transaction while (s)he is subscribed to the compared with low-CLV customers. Therefore, if a country
email program; too much marketing may not only make cus- has a high GDP and high purchasing power, its consumers
tomers less likely to opt in but also cause them to opt out more will have more disposable income and spend more.
quickly (Kumar, Zhang, and Luo 2014).
P4: Economic and environmental factors significantly in-
Demographic/firmographic variables. Demographic/ fluence a customer’s future profitability.
firmographic variables refer to the distinguishing characteris-
Studies that have tested this proposition have found that
tics of the customer (end user or business customer). In the case
GDP per capita, the country’s economic well-being (how
of a business customer, the firmographic variables include the
customers feel about and experience their daily lives), cultural
type of industry, the age and size of the firm, the level of annual
characteristics, and the employment rate significantly influence
revenue, and the location of the business. In the case of an end
future customer profitability (Kumar and Pansari 2016b; Kumar
user, the demographic variables include age, gender, income,
et al. 2014; Umashankar, Bhagwat, and Kumar 2016).
and the physical location of the customers. The demographic/
firmographic variables can aid firms in characterizing attractive
segments into identifiable and measurable groups of customers Customer Valuation Theory
(Zeithaml 2000). In the case of end users, the heterogeneity in In line with the customer valuation approach discussed pre-
profit contributions can be better understood through a cus- viously, the CVT can be defined as a mechanism to measure the
tomer’s demographic and psychographic variables (Chintagunta, future value of each customer on the basis of (1) the customer’s
Jain, and Vilcassim 1991); demographic variables affect customer direct economic value contribution, (2) the depth of the direct
store choice (Craig, Ghosh, and McLafferty 1984), shopping economic value contribution, and (3) the breadth of the indirect
channel choice (Inman, Shankar, and Ferraro 2004), profitable economic value contribution by accounting for volatility and
lifetime duration (Reinartz and Kumar 2003), and migration of vulnerability of customer cash flows. The key components of
shopping choice (Thomas and Sullivan 2005), to name a few. As a this definition include:
result, classifying customers on the basis of their distinguishing • Direct economic value contribution: This refers to the eco-
characteristics can help firms in their customer segmentation and nomic value of the customer relationship to the firm,
customer relationship management efforts. Therefore, expressed as a contribution margin or net profit. A firm can
both measure and optimize its marketing efforts by in-
P3: Demographic/firmographic variables significantly influence corporating customer value at the core of its decision-making
customer future profitability. process. When implemented at firms, it aids in (1) computing a
The testing of this proposition has revealed that demo- customer’s future profitability, (2) arriving at a good measure of
graphic variables such as household income, population density customer value, (3) optimally allocating marketing resources to
maximize customer value, and (4) identifying ways to maximize
of the neighborhood, gender, age of the head of the household, the return on marketing investments.
marital status, education level, and so forth significantly affect • Depth of direct economic value contribution: This refers to
future customer profitability (Kumar, George, and Pancras the intensity and inclusiveness of customers’ direct value
2008; Kumar, Shah, and Venkatesan 2006). Furthermore, contributions to the firm through their own purchases that
research has also established that firmographic variables such have produced significant financial results for the imple-
as the size of the firm and the industry category of the business menting firms. Examples of such instances include the
customers significantly explained the variation in contribution acquisition and retention of profitable customers on the basis
margin for the focal firm (Venkatesan and Kumar 2004). of their future value potential, customer purchase potential
across multiple channels of buying, and the possibility of
Specifically, Venkatesan and Kumar (2004) found that the focal customers to buy across multiple product categories.
firm’s business customers in the financial services, technology, • Breadth of the indirect economic value contribution: This
consumer packaged goods, and government industry categories refers to customers’ indirect value contributions to the firm
provided, on average, a higher contribution margin than firms in through their referral behavior, their online influence on
other industry categories. prospects’ and other customers’ purchases, and their

6 / Journal of Marketing, January 2018


feedback on the firm offerings. These indirect measures also on how the risks ultimately affect customer profitability (and
contribute significantly to a firm’s cash flow. This indirect thereby, overall firm profitability) and treats it accordingly.
contribution can also be extended to accommodate other For this reason, the CVT does not explicitly provide a beta
contexts such as salesperson productivity, donations (in the value or any indicator for the risk-free return equivalent in the
case of nonprofit firms), and business references. case of investments. Furthermore, the CVT enables managers
to identify and manage the diversifiable risks through tailored
Because CVT enables managers to actively manage cus-
offerings by focusing on the drivers of customer value.
tomer relationships on the basis of future customer contributions
• Because the CVT focuses on customer profitability, the
through specialized customer strategies, it creates a positive variation in associated customer costs at the individual level
impact on firm performance. Specifically, the implementation of are accounted for.
the CVT can help firms improve their marketing productivity and • The CVT is highly active in terms of generating actionable
realize higher firm value through (1) valuing customers as assets, firm strategies. By dynamically managing the volatility and
(2) managing a portfolio of customers, and (3) nurturing prof- vulnerability in cash flows, this theory enables managers to
itable customers. Therefore, it is critical to understand the nature actively monitor customer relationships over time and un-
of the linkage between CVT and firm value. Figure 2 provides an dertake necessary remedial measures. In comparison, the
overview of how the components of CVT function in driving financial theories largely suggest that investors invest (or
divest) at any point in time as determined by the discounted
firm value.
cash flow analyses. As a result, the financial theories remain
In summary, the proposed CVT is relevant for the following passive by not providing adequate directions to investors
reasons: such that they can influence future changes.
• Unlike prior marketing applications of the financial portfolio • Because future costs drive future margins, the CVT-based
theory, this theory focuses on customer management at the strategies advise managers to better manage their acquisition
individual customer level (on the basis of his or her profit- and retention of profitable customers; by doing so, firms can
ability) instead of the customer segment level. Although actively refine and manage the customer valuation approach.
customers are grouped in line with their profitability (i.e., However, no such option is available with investing in stocks
high-, medium-, and low-profit segments), the subsequent because stocks yield fixed returns, and the investor cannot
strategies that are developed are always deployed at an in- influence or manage the return on a stock.
dividual customer level because this is more effective. Such • The CVT recognizes the investment-to-earnings relationship,
an approach is different from how investors handle financial in the case of customers, to be nonlinear (unlike whenn
assets. The CVT implicitly accounts for customer risks (i.e., valuing stocks), and it uses an appropriate customer valuation
volatility and vulnerability in cash flows) when modeling approach. This is subsequently reflected in customer strat-
future customer profitability. In doing so, the model focuses egies that can be developed.

FIGURE 2
Understanding the Link Between CVT and Firm Value

Valuing Managing Nurturing


Customers as Portfolio of Profitable
Assets Customers Customers

Concepts Metrics Strategies

Direct
Create a portfolio of
Economic Value CLV Relationship
customers
Contribution

Augmented customer Identify value


Depth of Direct
value through the segments on the basis of
Economic Value Interaction
Wheel of Fortune augmented customer
Contribution
strategies value

Breadth of
Indirect Identify indirect
Maximize indirect
Economic customer value Engagement
value contribution
Value contribution
Contribution

A Theory of Customer Valuation / 7


Valuing Customers as Assets can be accomplished by identifying and measuring the factors
that drive CLV. At the individual level, the CLV is calculated as
(Concepts) the sum of cumulated cash flows—discounted using the
The next component of the CVT delves into the concepts behind weighted average cost of capital—of a customer over his or her
customer valuation and the related financial benefits they hold entire lifetime with the company (Kumar 2008). It is a function
for firms. To contextualize the practice of customer valuation to of the predicted contribution margin, the propensity for a
the proposed theory, it is essential to review prior literature on customer to continue in the relationship, and the marketing
this topic. In recent years, the idea of treating customers as assets resources allocated to the customer. It is important to note that
of a firm has emerged as the most popular and efficient way of weighted average cost of capital is one of the measures that
doing business (Hunt and Morgan 1995). This entails identi- represent the discount factor used to compute CLV, among
fying future customer profitability and designing marketing other options (e.g., T-bills rate). In its general form, CLV can be
guidelines that will advise managers on profitable customer expressed as follows (Venkatesan and Kumar 2004):
management. Traditionally, firms have used several metrics to
T
value customers (Kumar and Reinartz 2012; Petersen et al.
2009). The guidance from these metrics has driven decisions (2) CLVi =  ðFuture Contributionð1Margin
t =1 + dÞ t
it - Future Cost it Þ
,
pertaining to the allocation of marketing resources.
When considering a customer’s value contribution to the where i is the customer index, t is the time index, T refers to the
firm, a crucial part is his or her contribution in the future periods. number of time periods considered for estimating CLV, and d is
It is this future component that is of immense interest to aca- the discount rate.5 The CVT proposed in this study is based on
demics and practitioners. The concept of future value contri- the individual-level CLV rather than the aggregate level.
bution has been conceptualized in the form of the CLV metric, Although a “true” CLV measure implies measuring the
which refers to the present value of future profits generated customer’s value over his or her lifetime, for most applications it
from a customer over his or her lifetime with the firm (Gupta and is a three-year window.6 The reasons for this time frame are as
Lehmann 2005; Venkatesan and Kumar 2004). follows: (1) because future cash flows are heavily discounted, a
The conceptualization of CLV was strongly influenced by significant portion of profit can be accounted for in the first three
the corporate finance body of knowledge, and specifically to the years, and the contributions in the following years are very
contribution of the present value concept by Irving Fisher (1965 small; (2) the predictive accuracy of the models decline over a
[1930]) and Eugene Fama’s asset pricing theory (Fama and longer time frame; (3) changes in customer needs and life cycle
Miller 1972). Applying this knowledge to customer asset are likely to change significantly beyond a three-year window;
management, it is evident that customers pose risks in terms of (4) product offerings change in response to technological ad-
generating returns for the firm in the future. However, the vancements and customer needs; and (5) CLV predictions are
impact of these risks on customer profitability is not uniform updated on the basis of a rolling time horizon to accommodate
across all customers. In this regard, the CLV approach identifies changes in other environmental factors. However, specific in-
opportunities to contain the variation in returns (also known as dustry trends do lead to some exceptions for this three-year
cash flow volatility) and, thus, the total risk of changes in the window. For instance, automakers can expect customers to
value of the firm (measured by future returns) (Shah et al. make a purchase every four to six years (we suggest using a
2017). This is possible by understanding the drivers of cus- longer window to accommodate at least a couple of purchases or
tomer profitability and their impact on CLV. using purchase intention measures to forecast future value),
While the inspiration from other sciences such as economics computer manufacturers can expect customers to make a pur-
and finance is apparent, the adaptation and inclusion into the chase every one to two years (we suggest a four- to five-year
customer asset valuation would not have been possible without window to account for at least two or three purchases); and
the development of new methodologies specific to the mar- insurance companies can take up to seven years to recover the
keting milieu. Specifically, the conceptualization of the acquisition costs. Exceptions aside, the aforementioned reasons
CLV metric and the development of substantive methodol- advocate the use of a three-year timeframe in computing the CLV.
ogies served as a stepping stone for managing profitability by The extant CLV literature has covered a wide range of
selecting the right customers for targeting and determining business conditions through the measurement approaches. This
the allocation of resources for customer acquisition, re- coverage has expanded the scope and application of CLV-based
tention, and growth. Furthermore, this important contribution models for a multitude of industries and markets. Some of the
also demonstrated that the CLV framework can help firms later developments in modeling CLV have accommodated
manage risk through appropriate actions directed at the in- several modeling challenges, which has allowed for more so-
dividual customers. phisticated and precise estimation of customer value. Kumar
and Reinartz (2016) provide a detailed review of select ap-
Direct Economic Value Contribution proaches that have made significant contributions in modeling
While the valuation of assets/projects is typically done at the
aggregate level, the CLV metric enables firms to capture the 5Although the prediction of future contribution margin and future
direct value contribution of customers at both the aggregate and costs does generate risk in the CLV calculation, a higher discount
the individual levels. At the aggregate level, the average lifetime rate can be used to account for the uncertainties in the prediction.
value of a customer is derived from the lifetime value of a 6In the B2B markets, some categories may not conform to the
cohort, segment, or even a firm. Here, the estimation of CLV three-year window (e.g., capital goods such as plant and machinery).

8 / Journal of Marketing, January 2018


CLV. Table 1 offers a summary of the model form as well as customer, representing an increase in return on investment
merits and shortcomings of popular modeling approaches. (ROI) of 160% (Kumar, Venkatesan, and Reinartz 2006).
Although the models discussed here are the most popular 6. Preventing customer attrition: How do firms decide which
ones, there will always be improvements to the CLV model prospect will make a better customer in the future and is
therefore worthwhile to acquire? Using test and control groups,
because of the nature of the availability of customer data and the
Reinartz, Thomas, and Kumar (2005) showed that acquiring
business situation. In addition, the knowledge of how to im- and retaining the “right” customers garnered a B2C firm an
plement the models is also important in determining how CLV incremental profit of $345,800 with an ROI close to 860%.
can be managed at different firms. 7. Product returns: Should the firm encourage or discourage
product return behavior, and how should it manage this process?
Depth of Direct Economic Value Contribution Petersen and Kumar (2009) found that the ideal level of product
returns should be one that maximizes firm profits. For a B2C
The depth of direct economic value contributions, as measured catalog retailer, they found that the optimal percentage of product
by CLV, have focused on the impact of customers’ direct profit returns that maximized profitability was 13%. Furthermore,
contributions to the firm through their own purchases. Track- Petersen and Kumar (2015) addressed the aspects of perceived
ing and valuing these contributions have produced significant risk and optimal resource allocation into the product returns
process for a B2C catalog retailer and found that the firm was
financial results for the implementing firms. In this regard,
able to generate approximately $300,000 more in profits com-
recent research has demonstrated that when firms try to un- pared with the next best available resource allocation strategy.
derstand and leverage the true power of measuring and max- 8. Managing multichannel shoppers: What kind of sales and
imizing CLV, it ultimately results in enhanced firm value service resources should firms allocate to current customers to
(Berger et al. 2002; Kumar, Ramaswami, and Srivastava 2000; conduct future business with them? Kumar and Venkatesan
Kumar and Shah 2009). Furthermore, Kumar (2008, 2013) (2005) identified the drivers of profitable multichannel
explored the implications and generated the “Wheel of Fortune” shopping behavior and found that adding one more channel
strategies that have enabled firms to address marketing issues resulted in an average net gain of about 80% in profits.
with greater confidence and ensure better decision making. This 9. Branding and customer profitability: Should firms invest in
set of strategies answers the following questions: building brands or customers? Kumar, Luo, and Rao (2016) have
shown that by understanding the link between investments in
1. Customer selection: How do firms identify the “right” branding and CLV, firms can efficiently allocate their resources
customers to manage? Reinartz and Kumar (2000) found that to improving customer brand value to generate maximum
long-life customers are not necessarily profitable customers, lifetime value. It was found that a 5% increase in the investments
and the authors call for the use of a forward-looking metric such in branding causes the CLV to increase by over 25%.
as CLV to identify the “right” customers to manage. 10. Acquiring profitable customers: How should firms monitor
2. Managing repeat purchases and profitability simultaneously: customer activity to readjust the form and intensity of their
How can firms ensure profitability while improving customer marketing initiatives? In managing firm actions regarding
repeat purchases? When customized actions were imple- customer acquisition and retention efforts, Reinartz,
mented at a B2C catalog retailer on the basis of segmenting Thomas, and Kumar (2005) found that it is not sufficient to
customers on repeat purchases and profitability, Reinartz consider how much to spend on acquisition or retention
and Kumar (2002) found that loyal customers are aware of alone but, instead, firms need to consider how they must
their value to the company and demand premium service, balance acquisition and retention spending together to
believe they deserve lower prices, and spread positive word maximize profitability and double the ROI.
of mouth only if they feel and act loyal. 11. Interaction orientation: Ramani and Kumar (2008) ask,
3. Optimal allocation of resources: Which customers should Should firms realign themselves to realize augmented CLV?
the firms interact with through inexpensive channels (e.g., If so, is interaction orientation the answer?
Internet, phone), and which customers should firms let go? 12. Referral marketing strategy: How can firms enhance their
When resources were reallocated on the basis of the optimal value through customers’ referral behavior? By implementing
mix and frequency of communication channels, a B2B com- customized campaigns for each customer value segment, B2B
pany realized 100% more revenue and 83% more profits across and B2C firms have realized large profit gains, representing a
its four customer segments (Venkatesan and Kumar 2004). higher ROI (Kumar, Petersen, and Leone 2007, 2010, 2013).
4. Cross-buy: How can customers’ purchases be increased 13. Linking CLV to shareholder value: How do firms leverage
across multiple product categories to improve customer the CLV metric to drive their stock price and provide more
profitability? By encouraging customers to buy across more value to their stakeholders? By linking CLV-based actions
product categories through profitable customer management to a firm’s stock price, B2B and B2C firms have reported
strategies, Kumar, George, and Pancras (2008) found that significant increases of approximately 35% and 57%, re-
metrics such as revenue per order, margin per order, revenue spectively, in their stock prices; better prediction of stock price
per month, margin per month, and orders per month increased movements; and superior performance with respect to the
as customers shopped across multiple product categories. stock market index and rival firms (Krasnikov, Jayachandran,
However, not all cross-buying is good. Shah et al. (2012) and Kumar 2009; Kumar and Shah 2009).
found that across five B2B and B2C firms, 10%–35% of the
firms’ customers who cross-buy are unprofitable and account
for a significant proportion (39%–88%) of the firms’ total loss Breadth of Indirect Economic Value Contribution
from its customers. Therefore, discerning profitable from un-
profitable cross-buying behavior is essential. Apart from customers’ own contributions, the CLV metric also
5. Next logical product: How do firms decide the timing of an applies to customers’ indirect profit contributions to the firm
offering to a customer? When done right, results have shown such as their referral behavior, online influence on prospects’
that firms increased their profits by an average of $1,600 per and other customers’ purchases, and review/feedback on the

A Theory of Customer Valuation / 9


TABLE 1
Summary of Select CLV Modeling Approaches

Estimating Models Independently (Venkatesan and Kumar 2004)


Ti n
 ð1 + rÞ
GCit MCi,m,l
Model Form CLVit =  = t - m
l ,
t =1 ð1 + rÞ fi l =1
where
GCi,t = gross contribution from customer i in purchase occasion t,
MCi,m,l = marketing cost, for customer i in communication channel m in time period l,
fi (or frequency) = 12/expinti (where expinti is the expected interpurchase time for customer i),
r = discount rate, n = number of years to forecast, and Ti = number of purchases made by customer i.
Merits • Accounts for customers to return to the firm after a temporary dormancy in a relationship
• Aids resource allocation decisions on marketing communication channels
Shortcomings • Does not account for competitive responses and consumers’ brand-switching behavior
Estimating Models Simultaneously (Venkatesan, Kumar, and Bohling 2007)
Model Form Likelihood function:

k =1 fijk ½fk ðtij ak , lijk , g k Þ · pðDQij di,k , dpk , s2k Þcij Sk ðtij ak , lijk , g k Þð1-cij Þ ,
K
L = ∏ni=1 ∏Jj =1
i

where
f (tij|a, li, g) = the density function for the generalized gamma distribution;
S (tij|a, li, g) = the survival function for the generalized gamma distribution;
p (DQ|di, d*, s2) = the density function for purchase quantity; and
cij = the censoring indicator, where cij = 1 if the jth interpurchase time for the ith customer is not right-censored
and cij = 0 if the jth interpurchase time for the ith customer is right-censored.
Merits • Accounts for endogeneity and heterogeneity
• Provides more accurate results than independent estimation
Shortcomings • Model development and estimation is complex
Brand-Switching Approach (Rust, Lemon, and Zeithaml 2004)
T 1
Model Form CLV = t =ij 0 t Vijt · pijt · Bijt ,
ð1 + dj Þfi
where
Tij = number of purchases customer i makes during the specified time period,
dj = firm j’s discount rate,
fi = average number of purchases customer i makes in a unit time (e.g., per year),
Vijt = customer i’s expected purchase volume of brand j in purchase t,
pijt = expected contribution margin per unit of brand j from customer i in purchase t, and
Bijt = probability that customer i buys brand j in purchase t.
Merits • Can be used when the firm has cross-sectional and longitudinal database
• Accounts for all types of marketing expenditures
• Can accommodate competition
Shortcomings • Sample selection can play an important role in the accuracy of the metric
• Often relies heavily on survey based data, thus leading to an increase in sampling cost and survey biases.
Monte Carlo Simulation Algorithm (Rust, Kumar, and Venkatesan 2011)
Model Form pðPit , Purit , Xit Þ = pðPit jPurit = 1, Xit Þ · pðPurit = 1jXit Þ · pðXit Þ,
where Purit is the indicator of purchase and is equal to 1 if customer i purchases from the firm in time t, and
0 otherwise.
Merits • Better predictive power over simpler competing models
• Better understanding of customer profitability and firm value
Shortcomings • Cannot be used in a lost-for-good setting
• Heavy reliance long purchase histories
Customer Migration Model (Dwyer 1997)
T
Model Form CE = t =0 MM t C t Pt
ð1 + dÞt
,
where
MMt is a matrix that contains the probabilities of customers moving from one segment to another at time t,
Ct is a vector containing the number of customers in each segment at time t, and
Pt is the profit from each segment at time t.
Merits • Considers probabilistic nature of customer purchases
Shortcomings • Can be used only in limited business settings

10 / Journal of Marketing, January 2018


TABLE 1
Continued

Deterministic Model (Jain and Singh 2002)


CLV = i =1 ð1ðR+i -dÞCi-0:5

n
Model Form ,
where
i = the period of cash flow from customer transaction,
Ri = revenue from the customer in period i,
Ci = total cost of generating the revenue Ri in period i, and
N = the total number of periods of projected life of the customer under consideration.
Merits • Higher predictive accuracy
• Aids in firm-level strategy development
Shortcomings • Requires huge amounts of individual customer data
• Does not consider the relationship between model parameters
• Descriptive, but not prescriptive, and therefore less helpful in managerial decision making
• Does not account for competition
Probabilistic Model (Drèze and Bonfrer 2009)
t
Model Form CLVt = ð1 +ð1dÞ+t dÞ
- pðtÞ
AðtÞ,
where
t = a fixed time interval between contacts,
A(t) = expected surplus from communications following the interval, and
p(t) = probability of retention given that interval.
Merits • Can be used when the firm does not have longitudinal database
• Identification of subdrivers aids in better resource allocation
Shortcomings • Assumes purchase volume and interpurchase time to be exogenous
• Calls for frequent updating of the model
• Heavy reliance on data and less reliance on managerial insight
Structural Model (Sunder, Kumar, and Zhao 2016)
J J
Model Form Uit = j =1 ½yit lnð1 + qijt Þ + li ln½yit - j =1 ðPjt qijt Þ,
where
Uit = overall utility from consumption by consumer i at time t,
yijt = baseline utility,
yit = unobserved budget allocation within category by consumer i at time t,
Pjt = price of brand j at time t, and
qijt = quantity of brand j consumed by consumer i at time t. The qijt can then be used in the assessment of CLV.
Merits • Model based on theoretical underpinnings of consumer behavior
• Can account for various salient aspects of consumer behavior (e.g., multiple discreteness, budgeting etc.)
which cannot be addressed by other methods
• Aids in accurate out of sample prediction and managerial policy simulations
Shortcomings • Model development and estimation is very complex
• Relies heavily on across and within variation in customer purchases

products and services they consume. When firms pursue op- and (4) by providing feedback to the firm for product and service
portunities to draw out indirect profit contributions from cus- ideas (or customer knowledge value [CKV]) (Kumar et al. 2010).
tomers, it implies engaging with customers by identifying the
various sources of profit. Such a focus would result in maxi- CRV. With respect to indirect customer contributions to
profit, promoting customer referrals is a popular practice
mizing customer engagement value. Conceptually, customer
adopted by firms. The CRV metric captures the net present
engagement value is the total value provided by customers who
value (NPV) of the future profits of new customers who pur-
value the brand such that they engage with the firms (1) through chased the firm offerings as a result of the referral behavior
their purchase transactions (or CLV), (2) through their ability to of the current customer (Kumar, Petersen, and Leone 2010).
refer other customers to the firm using the firm’s referral Kumar, Petersen, and Leone (2007) showed that when targeted
program (or customer referral value [CRV]), (3) through their referral behavior campaigns were offered to select customers
power to positively influence other customers about the firm’s of a telecommunications firm, it resulted in overall value
offerings on social media (or customer influence value [CIV]), gains of $486,090, representing an ROI of 15.4. This study

A Theory of Customer Valuation / 11


established that customers who score highly on CLV are not the to existing and potential customers as well as improve process
same as those who are successful at referring new customers, efficiencies. Customers must be attributed to the corresponding
and it made the case for measuring both CLV and CRV when feedback to receive credit toward their asset value (Kumar and
evaluating marketing campaigns. To compute CRV, the first Bhagwat 2010).
step is for firms to integrate their customer transaction database While the value of customer feedback can be substantial to
with the referral database. In the absence of referral behavior any firm, juxtaposing CLV with CKV can yield even greater
information, firms can collect it from new customers by asking insights to firms. Normally, customers with low CLVs have
questions such as, “Were you referred, and if so, by whom?” Or, little experience with the product and/or they are likely to be
“To what degree did the referral influence your decision to transact unenthusiastic about the firm and therefore are likely to provide
with us?” The CRV metric is, however, not relevant for all business little feedback to the firm. Consequently, the higher a cus-
situations. For instance, customers may not make referrals if they are
tomer’s CLV, the more positive that customer will perceive the
not attached to the product (e.g., fast-moving consumer goods).
company and its products to be, and the more opportunities for
Furthermore, a customer recommendation for one product does
not necessarily apply to the firm’s portfolio of products. the company to receive input. However, at very high levels of
The concept of referral behavior has also been extended to CLV (an indication of a close fit between the company’s
apply to the B2B relationship setting through the business ref- products and a customer’s needs), the customers are likely to be
erence value (BRV) metric. This metric computes the amount of highly satisfied and therefore have little incentive to provide
profit the existing client firm can help generate from the prospect feedback. These customers can, however, be encouraged to
firms that purchase the firm offerings as a result of the client assist less experienced and less knowledgeable customers when
reference. Significant differences were found between high-BRV firms implement a communication medium to do so.
and low-BRV clients of a telecommunications and financial
services firm, which indicated that, compared with low-BRV Customer brand value. The three tangible value met-
clients, high-BRV clients (1) contribute more value, (2) stay longer rics—CRV, CIV, and CKV—collectively capture customers’
with the firm, (3) are more likely to provide a video reference indirect profit contributions. In addition to these metrics, an
than a “call me” reference, and (4) are larger in size and annual attitudinal metric (intangible value)—customer brand value
revenue (Kumar, Petersen, and Leone 2013). By linking CRV and (CBV)—measures the value that the customer attaches to the
BRV to CLV, firms can begin to identify the value of customers brand as a result of all the marketing and communication
and enhance it through optimally designed marketing campaigns. messages delivered through different media. Conceptually,
CIV. The power of the online medium has influenced CBV refers to the total value a customer attaches to a brand
customers to (1) persuade and convert others into customers, (2) through his or her experiences with the brand over time (Kumar,
continually use the firm’s offerings, and (3) change/modify their Luo, and Rao 2016). The CBV is a multidimensional metric that
own purchase patterns. In an effort to conceptualize and met- measures the customer’s brand knowledge, brand attitude,
ricize the customer influence on others, research has contributed brand purchase intention, and brand behavior and enables
two key metrics—customer influence effect (CIE) and CIV. companies to devise appropriate strategies depending on where
Whereas the CIE measures the net spread and influence of a the problem exists—awareness, trust, or repeat purchase.
message from a particular individual, the CIV calculates the Monitoring all the components of CBV becomes important
monetary gain or loss a firm experiences that is attributable to a from a branding standpoint. That is, brand-building efforts are
customer, through his or her spread of positive or negative aimed at inducing favorable behavior outcomes toward the
influence. Tracking these two metrics for a company’s social brand, such as longer duration, higher purchase frequency,
media campaign, Kumar et al. (2013) were able to dem- higher contribution margin, and positive customer referrals.
onstrate a 49% increase in brand awareness, 83% increase in Such behavioral outcomes determine the CLV scores. With this
ROI, and 40% increase in sales revenue growth rate. Al- understanding, managers can work on optimizing the compo-
though this study described the applicability of the CIE and
nents of CBV to improve an individual’s CLV score. In this
CIV metrics in the case of an offline retailer, it can be extended
regard, Kumar (2013) shows that CBV is the foundation for
to online retailers as well. Companies such as Starbucks and
Staples already have established customer relationship man- managing CLV, CRV, CIV, and CKV.
agement practices alongside a vibrant social media presence.
CKV. Because customer input is a valuable resource in the Managing Customer Portfolios
product development process, the value of this contribution (Metrics)
needs to be captured and included as part of a customer’s value to
the firm. This was captured in the conceptualization of the CKV The next component of the CVT relates to identifying the
metric, which refers to the monetary value attributed to a cus- metrics to ascertain the value of customers. Firms constantly
tomer by a firm as a result of the profit generated by implementing struggle with managing customers while ensuring profitability.
an idea/suggestion/feedback from that customer. This customer In many cases, the cost of serving a customer may far exceed the
feedback not only identifies the areas that are in need of im- returns from that customer. In such a scenario, firms are caught
provement but also helps provide suggestions and solutions for between retaining their customer portfolio/base and ensuring a
future upgrades and modifications to firm offerings. This feed- healthy bottom line. The CLV metric will help firms manage
back has the potential to make the entire offering more attractive healthy customer portfolios.

12 / Journal of Marketing, January 2018


Direct Economic Value Contribution A good way to understand the impact of optimal allocation
of resources is through the firm’s usage of marketing com-
As mentioned previously, the CLV stream of research has
munication channels (Venkatesan, Kumar, and Bohling 2007).
uncovered several resource reallocation insights that have
To optimally allocate their resources, firms must first identify
helped firms maximize their value. Specifically, studies have
their most profitable customers and those who are the most
focused on the magnitude of cash flows (the expected returns as
responsive to marketing efforts. Performed at the individual
measured by CLV) and on the volatility and variability of the
customer level, the selection of the best mix of communication
cash flows (the risk element associated with customer revenue
channels is determined on the basis of the responsiveness of
contributions). This dual focus has enabled firms to better
each customer. The cost-effectiveness of these channels is also
understand customer portfolio decisions and manage customers.
considered to measure the customers’ potential revenue con-
Through this process, it is possible to select and invest in
tribution based on the contacts made. The firm then decides the
customers who will optimize the overall customer cash flow
frequency and interval of contacts through these channels to
while balancing the risk in cash flow variations.
develop a customer contact strategy. Analyzing customer be-
While the concept of managing customer portfolios is
havior in relation to these factors provides firms with valuable
similar to the financial portfolio theory, a couple of key dif-
information about their customers’ preferences and attitudes. By
ferences must be noted. First, financial assets are typically
carefully monitoring customers’ purchase frequency, the time
classified in line with their historic risk/return characteristics.
elapsed between purchases, and the contribution margin,
However, the same approach does not apply when treating
managers can determine the frequency of firm initiatives to
customers as assets. Research has shown that past customer
maximize CLV through an optimal contact strategy.
contributions are not highly correlated with future profit po-
The benefits of optimal resource allocation using CLV as
tential when using traditional or backward-looking metrics
the metric can be observed even in a complex business setting.
(Venkatesan and Kumar 2004). The CLV metric, in contrast,
When IBM adopted the CLV metric to measure customer
has been found to be a good predictor of future customer
profitability and allocate resources for customers, the firm
profitability. Second, finance managers typically invest in in-
determined the level of contact and outreach efforts through
dividual assets and try to maximize the portfolio’s return.
telesales, email, direct mail, and catalogs on an individual
However, marketing managers largely allocate resources at the
customer basis. At the conclusion of this program (based on
customer segment level and increase customer profit. This is due
approximately 35,000 customers), IBM was able to effectively
to the nonlinear relationship between customer investments and
reallocate resources for approximately 14% of customers as
returns. In other words, customer responses operate within
well as increase revenues by about US$20 million. This was
certain thresholds of the level of marketing investments, and too
done without increasing the investment but by abandoning
few or too many marketing investments may not elicit the
ineffective techniques based on customer spending history in
desired customer response. Whereas early studies have con-
favor of the CLV metric (Kumar et al. 2008).
tributed to managing customer portfolios by optimizing
segment-level risk/return (Buhl and Heinrich 2008; Reinartz
Breadth of Indirect Economic Value Contribution
and Kumar 2003; Tarasi et al. 2011), more recent studies are
focusing on optimizing resource allocation at the individual In managing customer portfolios, firms must realize that cus-
customer level to maximize overall profitability (Kumar, Zhang, tomers have multiple ways to contribute value, and all avenues
and Luo 2014; Luo and Kumar 2013; Petersen and Kumar 2015). have to be explored to maximize customer contributions. In this
regard, the CLV metric has resulted in the creation of other
Depth of Direct Economic Value Contribution metrics that can be used to manage and maximize customer
value. These metrics must be managed independently, because a
To realize the full potential of customer contributions, firms customer could contribute in one or more of these ways. Fur-
must focus on the augmented customer value while managing thermore, firms must identify the ideal combination of direct and
customer portfolios. This is possible through optimal allocation indirect value contribution from the metrics that provide the
of resources by prioritizing customers on their augmented greatest profits to the firm. Figure 3 illustrates the metrics that
profitability and their receptiveness to marketing efforts. To do embed the principles of CLV.
so, decile analysis of the predicted CLV must be performed. While most of the metrics illustrated in Figure 3 have been
Here, the baseline CLV (i.e., NPV of future profits that con- discussed in previous sections of this study, a brief description
siders only the focal product category that the customer pur- of salesperson future value (SFV), donor lifetime value (DLV),
chases) and the incremental CLV (i.e., NPV of future profits that and employee engagement value (EEV) is provided here in the
considers customer purchases only from new product cate- following subsections.
gories) are separately tracked. Conceptually, the augmented
CLV is the sum of baseline CLV and the monetary impact of the SFV. Despite numerous studies conducted on the sales
portfolio of strategies discussed previously. Furthermore, the function, the future value of the salesperson to the firm and how
medium-value customers experience the highest gain from organizational factors affect it has received little attention. Rec-
the portfolio of strategies—higher than even the high-value ognizing the importance of this knowledge to firms, Kumar,
customers. This indicates the receptiveness of customers to Sunder, and Leone (2014) conceptualized the SFV metric and
firm-initiated marketing actions. Following this, firms can empirically demonstrated the short-term and long-term effects of
prioritize marketing resources and actions according to the managing SFV. The SFV is defined as the NPV of future cash
impact on future profits and on firm value. flows from a salesperson’s customers (i.e., CLV) after accounting

A Theory of Customer Valuation / 13


FIGURE 3 create perceptions about the firm, which affect repeat customer
Maximizing Indirect Value Contribution purchases (Sirianni et al. 2013). These perceptions lead to at-
titudinal and behavioral outcomes through their impact on
purchases, referrals, influence, and knowledge that the customers
Customer provide to the firm. In this regard, a positive interaction between
Referral customers and employees is likely to motivate how customers
Employee Value Business talk about the brand and whether they recommend it to their
Engagement Reference friends and relatives. Kumar and Pansari (2014, p. 55) define
Value Value
employee engagement as “a multidimensional construct which
comprises of all the different facets of the attitudes and behaviors
of employees towards the organization.” The dimensions of
Customer Customer employee engagement comprise employee satisfaction, em-
Engagement Principles Brand Value
Value ployee identification, employee commitment, employee loyalty,
of CLV
Embedded and employee performance. Kumar and Pansari (2016a) de-
In… veloped an approach to measure EEV using a five-point scale.
When implemented in the airline, telecommunication, and hotel
Salesperson Customer industries, the authors found that the highest level of growth in
Future Influence profits (10%–15%) occurs when a company’s employees are
Value Value
highly engaged (i.e., have a high EEV); the lowest level of
Donor
growth (0%–1%) occurs when the company’s employees are
Customer
Lifetime Knowledge
disengaged (i.e., have a low EEV). Ongoing research continues
Value Value to uncover several facets of the metrics presented in Figure 3, and
the insights generated thus far have advised firms in valuing
customers.

Nurturing Profitable Customers


for the costs of developing, motivating, and retaining the sales-
person. By measuring the value of the salespeople using the SFV
(Strategies)
metric and linking the performance with the types of training and Finally, the concepts and metrics discussed previously lead to
incentives each salesperson receives, it is possible to identify the the establishment of strategies that will aid in growing customer
best-performing salespeople and tailor the training and incentives value. In developing strategies, firms are often misled by the
to maximize their performance. When this approach was belief that loyal customers are profitable. In addition, firms’
implemented in a Fortune 500 B2B firm, the firm was able belief that creating customer reward programs can result in
to reallocate training and incentive investments across increased repeat purchasing behavior, and thereby improve firm
salespeople, which resulted in an 8% increase in SFV profitability, is misplaced. Research in this area has shown that
across the sales force and a 4% increase in firm revenue loyal customers are not necessarily profitable, and the re-
(Kumar, Sunder, and Leone 2015). lationship between repeat purchases and profitability is more
complex than is often perceived. In addition, firms regularly use
DLV. Similar to for-profit firms, nonprofit firms also need traditional metrics to measure the value of their customers, and
to build relationships to be able to raise donations. In this case, these lead managers to implement flawed marketing strategies
the relationships are created with potential donors. Furthermore, that drain the firm’s resources. In this regard, the CLV metric is
the nonprofit firm will have to be selective about the donors with ideal for firms aiming to grow and nurture customer profit-
whom it builds relationships, so that it judiciously uses its ability. When firms adopt a CLV-based approach, they can
limited resources. To make this possible, Kumar and Petersen make consistent decisions over time about (1) which customers
(2016) conceptualized the DLV metric, which refers to the sum and prospects to acquire and retain, (2) which customers and
of donations in the future years discounted to the present value prospects not to acquire and retain, and (3) the level of resources
over a donor’s lifetime with the firm. Using the donor de- to spend on the various customer segments.
mographic information, past donation behavior, and marketing
information, the DLV is modeled by predicting (1) the likeli- Direct Economic Value Contribution
hood of donation; (2) the value of donation, given that the
When aiming to maximize the direct contribution of customers
person will donate; and (3) marketing costs expended in seeking
to the firm, the CVT proposes that the focus be on establishing
donations. By computing the DLV, it is possible for nonprofit
profitable customer relationships that are based on customer
firms to rank-order donors on the basis of their future donation
transactions. In this regard, Reinartz and Kumar (2002) found
value to the firm. This metric can predict who will be able to
that (1) loyal customers do not cost less to serve, (2) loyal
donate with 90% accuracy, the value of donations with 80%
customers consistently paid lower prices, and (2) customers
accuracy, and the DLV with 75% accuracy.
who were attitudinally and behaviorally loyal were more likely
EEV. Firms can leverage the power of an engaged cus- to be active word-of-mouth marketers than those who were only
tomer base better if they have a workforce that interacts behaviorally loyal. In effect, the study found that while there
well with customers. Customer–employee interactions help may be long-standing customers who are only marginally

14 / Journal of Marketing, January 2018


profitable, there also may be short-term customers who are connect with the firm and design the nature of the transaction
highly profitable. The identification of the distinct customer and (2) connect and collaborate with each other by sharing
types led to the development of the following specific information, praise, and criticism about a firm’s product and
strategies: services. Finally, the customer value management component
1. High repeat purchases and high profitability. Referred to as refers to the extent to which a firm can quantify and calculate the
“True Friends,” these customers buy steadily and regularly over individual customer value and use it to reallocate resources to
time. They are generally satisfied with the firm and are usually customers. Firms such as IBM and American Express, through
comfortable engaging with the firm’s processes. Firms should their endorsement of practices that are consistent with the
build relationships with these customers because they present the elements of interaction orientation, have realized superior
highest potential for long-term profitability. business performance, thereby demonstrating the manage-
2. Low repeat purchases and high profitability. Referred to as rial significance of the interaction orientation approach.
“Butterflies,” these customers do not repeat purchase often, tend
to buy a lot in a short time period and then move on to other firms, Breadth of Indirect Economic Value Contribution
and avoid building a long-term relationship with any single firm.
Firms should enjoy their profits until they turn to competition. Firms can nurture customer profitability by implementing
3. High repeat purchases and low profitability. Referred to as an engagement strategy that considers the value generated
“Barnacles,” these customers, if managed unwisely, could by customers and employees and results in superior firm
drain the company’s resources. Firms must evaluate their size performance. The CVT proposes an engagement strategy that
and share of wallet. If the customers’ share of wallet is low, builds an engaged and committed customer and employee
firms can up-sell and cross-sell to them to make them
base to enhance the firm’s overall profitability (Kumar and
profitable. However, if the size of wallet is small, strict cost
control measures must be taken to prevent losses for the firm. Pansari 2016a).
4. Low repeat purchases and low profitability. Referred to as Although the engagement approach is powerful by itself, its
“Strangers,” these customers not only are a poor fit to the true potential is realized when it is viewed from a long-term
company but offer very little profit potential to the firm. Firms perspective. Engaged customers contribute to the long-term
should identify these customers early on and avoid any in- reputation and recognition of the brand. Creating an environ-
vestment toward building a relationship with them. ment where customers are more engaged with the company may
A relationship focus would lead firms to identify those cus- require an initial investment, but doing so has the potential to
tomers who provide the most value and prioritize the marketing generate higher profits in the long run through the creation of
efforts accordingly. customer engagement (Verhoef, Reinartz, and Krafft 2010).
Furthermore, fostering engagement within firms is effective
Depth of Direct Economic Value Contribution even in a recessionary economy. In a recessionary period, firms
face budgetary challenges that significantly affect their mar-
Firms are expected to demonstrate the profitability of their keting plans, which influences their levels of brand awareness
marketing actions at the individual customer level on an on- and adoption. During this period, firms can mitigate the risks
going basis. At the same time, customers expect firms to posed by the dents in their marketing budgets if they have a
customize products and services to meet their demands. A highly engaged employee base that promotes the firm’s brand
successful management of these two types of expectations and its products/services to its customers. This would ensure
depends on the firms’ ability to better interact with customers delivery of a superior customer experience, thereby increasing
and create a unique positioning in the future. This calls for customer purchases, influence, and referrals—all without any
implementing an interaction strategy in which firm–customer additional marketing investments.
and customer–customer interactions constantly occur. In other
words, the CVT advocates for a firm–customer exchange en-
vironment that focuses on constant interactions as opposed to Benefits of the CVT
just profitable transactions. The true measure of any marketing strategy or initiative is the
Implementing the interaction strategy requires the firm to improved financial result for the firm implementing it. This is
adopt an interaction-oriented approach, which consists of four why it is critical to study customer reactions to firm actions.
components—customer concept, interaction response capacity, When firms can precisely link their actions to customer value
customer empowerment, and customer value management— and, ultimately, to firm/shareholder value, they can begin to realize
that the firm can utilize to increase the impact on its profitability the potential of valuing customers as assets. Using concepts from
(Ramani and Kumar 2008). First, the customer concept pro- economics, finance, and marketing, this article has created an
poses that the unit of every marketing action or reaction is an interface that connects the value of each customer (determined by
individual customer. This places the customer at the top of the evaluating the lifetime value of the customer to the firm) with the
hierarchy in the customer–firm relationship. By doing so, firms performance and, therefore, the valuation of the firm. This con-
are able to observe customer behavior and respond appropri- nection has been established by (1) valuing customers as assets,
ately. Second, the interaction response capacity (the degree to (2) managing a portfolio of customers, and (3) nurturing profitable
which a firm can provide successive products or services customers. Each of these tactics plays a unique role in the opti-
drawing on previous customer feedback) highlights the im- mization of shareholder value, customer equity, and overall
portance of firms attending to and promptly addressing cus- profitability, and each tactic also works in combination with others
tomer needs. Third, the customer empowerment component to increase the overall impact on the firm value. Specifically, the
refers to the extent to which a firm allows its customers to (1) CVT proposed here provides the following benefits:

A Theory of Customer Valuation / 15


1. Benefit to the firms: When firms understand customer prof- Implications for Future Research
itability and adopt CVT as the desired approach, they will be
able to (1) attract and retain the most valuable customers, (2) The insights from various financial theories served as a good
nurture customers into a skilled resource base for the firm, (3) starting point in the development of the CVT. In addition, the
prevent their customers from switching to competitors by modern portfolio theory provided insights into risk di-
instilling a heightened sense of ownership of the firm among its versification and the maintenance of a balanced portfolio.
customers, (4) consistently evolve their product/service offerings Overall, this study has showcased CVT as a forward-looking
and match it to customer needs and preferences, (5) develop the
ability to accurately foresee customer responses, and (6) exhibit
approach to aid managers in the valuation and management of a
superior aggregate business-level performance because the firm customer’s future contributions.
will be dynamically maximizing the profit function at every stage Specifically, two key managerial implications emerge. First,
of business activity across all customers. the applicability of the CVT has been demonstrated in various
2. Benefit to the customers: The CVT essentially advocates that scenarios spanning multiple markets (e.g., B2B, B2C), business
the individual customer be the unit of analysis of every settings (e.g., contractual, noncontractual), regional contexts
marketing action and reaction. This implies that firms respond (e.g., domestic, global), and industries. This should provide
to heterogeneous customers differently at different points in confidence to managers regarding its relevance and applicability
time by pooling information from multiple sources and points
to the current marketplace. Furthermore, experts opine that in
in time. This approach provides customers avenues to (1)
connect with the firm and actively shape the nature of the next five to ten years, CLV will be the metric of prime
transactions and (2) connect and collaborate with each other importance to businesses (Fader 2016). Second, given the
by sharing information and knowledge. Furthermore, cus- evolution in the methodology to value customers, the avail-
tomers will be subjected to only the product/service offerings ability of customer information, and the 360-degree customer
that are appropriate to them rather than every offering in the data, managers are enriched with improvements that can result
firm’s product portfolio. This keeps the customers focused, in better implementation. Despite the success of the CLV
involved, and connected to the firm, thereby increasing their
metric, it has not experienced industry-wide acceptance. For
lifetime with the firm.
instance, a survey found that while 76% of the respondents
3. Benefit to the environment: When firms base their marketing
actions on the potential value the customers can bring them, it
agreed that CLV was important to their organization, only 42%
becomes easier to align and allocate the optimal amount of reported that they were able to implement it (Charlton 2014).
resources toward each customer. For instance, firms can plan In this light, I identify three areas that can benefit from
and optimize the printing and mailing of marketing materials future research. First, the identification of the relevant organi-
only to those customers they are intended for, and not send zational structure required to facilitate and implement CVT-
mass mailers. In addition to enhancing the effectiveness of the based strategies is important. A customer-centric organization
firm’s marketing efforts, this would also prevent the wasteful has been identified as a basis to align an organization (Kumar
usage of valuable environmental and infrastructural resources
and would help firms embrace sustainability as part of their
2013). Such an alignment can enable firms to view their cus-
core mission (Kumar and Christodoulopoulou 2014). tomers both as a source of business and as a potential business
4. Benefit to society: The benefits to society from implementing resource. However, more insights are necessary to better un-
the CVT are threefold. First, there is a clear line of com- derstand the organizational requirements for a successful CVT
munication from firms to customers in terms of what to implementation. Second, the role of multiple stakeholders needs
expect. The customer expectations relate to product/service to be explored. For instance, studies have investigated the
offerings as well as firm responses through marketing actions. circumstances in which firm–stakeholder relationships are
Second, the customer’s repeat purchases can now be con- forged, such as those in which (1) the stakeholder is critical to
solidated among a few preferred firms. When firms display
the functioning of the firm (e.g., institutional investors having an
their respective needs and expectations, customers’ repeat
purchases gradually are aligned to matching firms. Over equity interest in a firm), (2) the stakeholder aims to gain from
time, a self-selection of repeat patronage by firms takes place the relationship (e.g., customers seeking firm offerings), (3) the
that leads firms to focus their resources to satisfy their cus- firm and the stakeholder mutually gain from the association
tomers’ expectations. Finally, customers become empow- (e.g., the firm and the channel partners working collectively to
ered, such that they can exercise their choice and free will, produce and sell offerings), and (4) the stakeholder has moral
thereby having a definite say in the marketing transaction rights attached to the firm’s operations (e.g., customer rights and
process. This empowerment is evident through behavior
employee rights) (Freeman and Reed 1983). However, precise
ranging from customer advocacy (in case of complete sat-
isfaction of firm offerings) to customer boycott and negative recommendations have to be generated that can inform firms
word of mouth (in case of extreme displeasure). about better stakeholder integration for a successful imple-
5. Benefit to the employees: Employees are instrumental in mentation of CVT. Finally, the time-varying effects of certain
providing a better customer experience, and this leads to drivers involved in the implementation of CVT need to be better
customer engagement. Firms can engage their customers only understood. These elements include the valuation methodolo-
if their employees are committed to delivering the brand gies, data availability, intensity of customer-level data, and
values and performing to the best of their ability. Employees emergence of smarter consumers. Over time, these elements are
can be committed to the organization only if they understand likely to have a dynamic effect on CVT-based strategies. In
its goals and their responsibilities toward achieving these
goals. The employees must be highly engaged with the firm summary, by focusing on a CVT-based approach, firms can (1)
to provide peak performance (Kumar and Pansari 2014). acquire and retain profitable customers, (2) employ resources
Therefore, in addition to engaging customers, firms must also productively, and (3) nurture profitable customers, which will
ensure that they are engaging their employees. ultimately result in higher firm value.

16 / Journal of Marketing, January 2018


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Wharton School Publishing. customer experience factors on service purchase behaviors,”
Kumar, V. (2013), Profitable Customer Engagement: Concept, Marketing Science, 33 (5), 673–92.
Metrics, and Strategies. New Delhi: Sage Publications. Kumar, V., and Rajkumar Venkatesan (2005), “Who Are the
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Thorsten Wiesel, and Sebastian Tillmanns (2010), “Undervalued of Multichannel Shopping Behavior,” Journal of Interactive
or Overvalued Customers: Capturing Total Customer Engage- Marketing, 19 (2), 44–62.
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Kumar, V., and Yashoda Bhagwat (2010), “Listen to the Customer,” Beckmann (2008), “The Power of CLV: Managing Customer
Marketing Research, 22 (2), 14–19. Lifetime Value at IBM,” Marketing Science, 27 (4), 585–99.
Kumar, V., Vikram Bhaskaran, Rohan Mirchandani, and Milap Shah Kumar, V., Rajkumar Venkatesan, and Werner Reinartz (2006),
(2013), “Creating a Measurable Social Media Marketing Strategy: “Knowing What to Sell, When, and to Whom,” Harvard
Increasing the Value and ROI of Intangibles and Tangibles for Business Review, 84 (3), 131–37, 50.
Hokey Pokey,” Marketing Science, 32 (2), 194–212. Kumar, V., Rajkumar Venkatesan, and Werner Reinartz (2008),
Kumar, V., and Angeliki Christodoulopoulou (2014), “Sustain- “Performance Implications of Adopting a Customer-Focused
ability and Branding: An Integrated Perspective,” Industrial Sales Campaign,” Journal of Marketing, 72 (5), 50–68.
Marketing Management, 43 (1), 6–15. Kumar, V., Xi Zhang, and Anita Luo (2014), “Modeling Customer
Kumar, V., Morris George, and Joseph Pancras (2008), “Cross- Opt-In and Opt-Out in a Permission-Based Marketing Context,”
Buying in Retailing: Drivers and Consequences,” Journal of Journal of Marketing Research, 51 (4), 403–19.
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paper, Georgia State University. Customer Asset Value,” Journal of Marketing Research, 43 (2),
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Perspective,” Customer Needs and Solutions, 1 (1), 52–67. Seller Relationship States to Measure the Return on Marketing
Kumar, V., and Anita Pansari (2016a), “Competitive Advantage Through Investment in Business-to-Business Markets,” Journal of
Engagement,” Journal of Marketing Research, 53 (4), 497–514. Marketing Research, 50 (1), 143–60.
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and Customer Lifetime Value: Assessing the Relative Impact of Resource-Based View Within the Conversation of Strate-
the Drivers of Customer Lifetime Value for a Global Retailer,” gic Management,” Strategic Management Journal, 13 (5),
Journal of International Marketing, 24 (1), 1–21. 363–80.

18 / Journal of Marketing, January 2018


Malkiel, Burton G. (1995), “Returns from Investing in Equity Shah, Denish, V. Kumar, Kihyun Hannah Kim, and JeeWon Brianna
Mutual Funds 1971 to 1991,” Journal of Finance, 50 (2), Choi (2017), “Linking Customer Behaviors to Cash Flow Level
549–72. and Volatility: Implications for Marketing Practices,” Journal of
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58 (3), 20–38. “Unprofitable Cross-Buying: Evidence from Consumer and
Odean, Terrance (1998), “Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Business Markets,” Journal of Marketing, 76 (3), 78–95.
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Petersen, J. Andrew, and V. Kumar (2009), “Are Product Returns a George S. Day (2006), “The Path to Customer Centricity,”
Necessary Evil? Antecedents and Consequences,” Journal of Journal of Service Research, 9 (2), 113–24.
Marketing, 73 (3), 35–51. Sirianni, Nancy J., Mary Jo Bitner, Stephen W. Brown, and Naomi
Petersen, J. Andrew, and V. Kumar (2015), “Perceived Risk, Mandel (2013), “Branded Service Encounters: Strategically
Product Returns, and Optimal Resource Allocation: Evidence Aligning Employee Behavior with the Brand Positioning,”
from a Field Experiment,” Journal of Marketing Research, Journal of Marketing, 77 (6), 108–23.
52 (2), 268–85. Srinivasan, Shuba, and Dominique M. Hanssens (2009), “Marketing
Petersen, J. Andrew, Leigh McAlister, David J. Reibstein, Russell S. and Firm Value: Metrics, Methods, Findings, and Future Di-
Winer, V. Kumar, and Geoff Atkinson (2009), “Choosing the rections,” Journal of Marketing Research, 46 (3), 293–312.
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Long-Life Customers in a Noncontractual Setting: An Empirical Lifetime Value of a Customer in the Consumer Packaged Goods
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“Balancing Acquisition and Retention Resources to Maxi- Loyal Customers Really Pay More for Services?” Journal of the
mize Customer Profitability,” Journal of Marketing, 69 (1), Academy of Marketing Science, 45 (6), 1–20.
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the Frog Change into a Prince? Predicting Future Customer Allocation Strategy,” Journal of Marketing, 68 (4), 106–25.
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28 (4), 281–94. “Optimal Customer Relationship Management Using Bayesian
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A Theory of Customer Valuation / 19

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