Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Kumar
Keywords: customer valuation theory, customer lifetime value, customer engagement, customer profitability, stock
valuation
ny sustainable business first creates value for its customers, and products, the challenge in this context for
Firm Value
held stocks has a limited observable impact on the value of when prices rise and selling when prices fall, then an increase
customers. in the number of forward-looking speculators can increase
• Using financial theories, it is possible for investors to identify volatility about the asset fundamentals (De Long et al. 1990).
the types of risks to which stocks are exposed (e.g., given the In contrast, speculation does not play a major role when
economic cycles) and recognize the ones that can be di- assessing the value of a customer. In other words, the im-
versified from the ones that cannot. However, firms that have portance of speculation is higher in the valuation of stocks
invested in their customers cannot readily identify the risks than in the valuation of customers.
from customer contributions, or their impact on profitability. • Drawing on known future discounted cash flows, an investor
In other words, it is relatively easier to identify (and therefore typically decides on his or her choice of investment. That is,
manage) risks arising from investments in stocks compared the options are limited to either investment or divestment.
with investments in customers. As a result, investors generally cannot influence the future
• Investor sentiments play an important role in investment cash flow patterns of a firm to change the course of their own
decisions (Weber and Johnson 2009). Stock market opera- actions. In other words, financial theories offer a passive
tions involve investor sentiments regarding a firm’s future approach to managing investments, whereas customer
performance expectations, which, in turn, determine the level management requires an active management approach.
of attractiveness of that firm in the industry. In contrast, the • The volatility and vulnerability of stocks make it difficult for
influence of investor sentiment is not a significant force when investors to predict stock returns in the short run. Short-term
valuing a customer’s direct contribution. However, for returns are difficult to predict because of their random walk
customers who are based in politically unstable regions, the feature (Jensen 1978; Malkiel 1995). In addition, Kumar,
valuation is different more for sentimental reasons than for Ramaswami, and Srivastava (2000) observe that daily returns
economic reasons. In other words, the importance of investor are sensitive to random disturbances in the market. To predict
sentiment is higher in the valuation of stocks than in the stock movements, they offset the effect of random distur-
valuation of customers. bances by considering a longer time period such as a month.
• Speculation also plays an important role in investment de- Using the principles advanced by the capital asset pricing
cisions. For instance, speculation is based on a rational model and the arbitrage pricing theory, the study developed a
betting decision that is known to stabilize asset prices multistage model to study variation in stock returns. The
(Friedman 1953) and is sometimes based on insider trading study found that the addition of significant factors other than
(Kyle 1985). Furthermore, it is known that if the investment the market factors (i.e., cost and supply of money) increases
actions of rational speculators trigger the buying of securities the level of risk, which results in a decrease in the price of the
FIGURE 2
Understanding the Link Between CVT and Firm Value
Direct
Create a portfolio of
Economic Value CLV Relationship
customers
Contribution
Breadth of
Indirect Identify indirect
Maximize indirect
Economic customer value Engagement
value contribution
Value contribution
Contribution
where
f (tij|a, li, g) = the density function for the generalized gamma distribution;
S (tij|a, li, g) = the survival function for the generalized gamma distribution;
p (DQ|di, d*, s2) = the density function for purchase quantity; and
cij = the censoring indicator, where cij = 1 if the jth interpurchase time for the ith customer is not right-censored
and cij = 0 if the jth interpurchase time for the ith customer is right-censored.
Merits • Accounts for endogeneity and heterogeneity
• Provides more accurate results than independent estimation
Shortcomings • Model development and estimation is complex
Brand-Switching Approach (Rust, Lemon, and Zeithaml 2004)
T 1
Model Form CLV = t =ij 0 t Vijt · pijt · Bijt ,
ð1 + dj Þfi
where
Tij = number of purchases customer i makes during the specified time period,
dj = firm j’s discount rate,
fi = average number of purchases customer i makes in a unit time (e.g., per year),
Vijt = customer i’s expected purchase volume of brand j in purchase t,
pijt = expected contribution margin per unit of brand j from customer i in purchase t, and
Bijt = probability that customer i buys brand j in purchase t.
Merits • Can be used when the firm has cross-sectional and longitudinal database
• Accounts for all types of marketing expenditures
• Can accommodate competition
Shortcomings • Sample selection can play an important role in the accuracy of the metric
• Often relies heavily on survey based data, thus leading to an increase in sampling cost and survey biases.
Monte Carlo Simulation Algorithm (Rust, Kumar, and Venkatesan 2011)
Model Form pðPit , Purit , Xit Þ = pðPit jPurit = 1, Xit Þ · pðPurit = 1jXit Þ · pðXit Þ,
where Purit is the indicator of purchase and is equal to 1 if customer i purchases from the firm in time t, and
0 otherwise.
Merits • Better predictive power over simpler competing models
• Better understanding of customer profitability and firm value
Shortcomings • Cannot be used in a lost-for-good setting
• Heavy reliance long purchase histories
Customer Migration Model (Dwyer 1997)
T
Model Form CE = t =0 MM t C t Pt
ð1 + dÞt
,
where
MMt is a matrix that contains the probabilities of customers moving from one segment to another at time t,
Ct is a vector containing the number of customers in each segment at time t, and
Pt is the profit from each segment at time t.
Merits • Considers probabilistic nature of customer purchases
Shortcomings • Can be used only in limited business settings
products and services they consume. When firms pursue op- and (4) by providing feedback to the firm for product and service
portunities to draw out indirect profit contributions from cus- ideas (or customer knowledge value [CKV]) (Kumar et al. 2010).
tomers, it implies engaging with customers by identifying the
various sources of profit. Such a focus would result in maxi- CRV. With respect to indirect customer contributions to
profit, promoting customer referrals is a popular practice
mizing customer engagement value. Conceptually, customer
adopted by firms. The CRV metric captures the net present
engagement value is the total value provided by customers who
value (NPV) of the future profits of new customers who pur-
value the brand such that they engage with the firms (1) through chased the firm offerings as a result of the referral behavior
their purchase transactions (or CLV), (2) through their ability to of the current customer (Kumar, Petersen, and Leone 2010).
refer other customers to the firm using the firm’s referral Kumar, Petersen, and Leone (2007) showed that when targeted
program (or customer referral value [CRV]), (3) through their referral behavior campaigns were offered to select customers
power to positively influence other customers about the firm’s of a telecommunications firm, it resulted in overall value
offerings on social media (or customer influence value [CIV]), gains of $486,090, representing an ROI of 15.4. This study