Introduction to Aspen Kbase Day One

Accuracy of ICARUS’ Systems

Introduction to Aspen Kbase – Day One

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Accuracy = Actual $
Estimated $

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Introduction to Aspen Kbase Day One

Steps to Accuracy

Introduction to Aspen Kbase – Day One

©2003 AspenTech. All Rights Reserved.

Steps to Accuracy (1)

0 to +10%
Level of Accuracy

+10% Develop
definitive
estimate
+20%

-25/+35% Budget
-30 /+50%
Conceptual estimate
Enter
estimate
known Calibrate
+50%
project
Out data
of the box

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Introduction to Aspen Kbase Day One

Steps to Accuracy (2)

Level of Accuracy 0 to +10%

+10%

+20%

-25/+35% Budget
-30 /+50%
Conceptual estimate
Enter estimate
+50% known Calibrate
Out project
of the box data

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Amount of Information

“Out of the Box” Estimate

• Percent of Engineering 2 to 5 %
• Project data available:
– Flowsheets
– Process specs on equipment
– Preliminary layout

• Typical system accuracy -50 to +50%

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Introduction to Aspen Kbase Day One

0 to +10%
Steps to Accuracy (3)
Level of Accuracy

+10%

+20%

-25/+35% Budget
-30 /+50%
Conceptual estimate
Enter estimate
+50% known Calibrate
Out project
of the box data

Amount of Information
©2003 AspenTech. All Rights Reserved.

“Out of the Box” Estimate with Known

Project data
• Percent of Engineering 2 to 5 %
• Project data available:
– Prior data
– Known mechanical design specs
– Known site information
– Known craft rates and productivities

• Typical system accuracy -30 to +50%

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Introduction to Aspen Kbase Day One

“Out of the Box” Estimate Calibrated

• Percent of Engineering 2 to 5 %
• Project data available:
– Prior data
– Design rules
– Wage/productivities
– Indirects, overheads
– Completed estimate

• Typical system accuracy -25 to +35%

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Steps to Accuracy (4) 0 to +10%

Level of Accuracy

+10%
Develop
definitive
estimate
+20%

-25/+35% Budget
-30 /+50%
Conceptual estimate
Enter estimate
+50% known Calibrate
Out project
of the box data

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Introduction to Aspen Kbase Day One

Conceptual Estimate – ICARUS

• Percent of Engineering 10 to 40%
• Project data available:
– Prior phase data
– Equipment data sheets
– PFDs
– Plot plans
– 10% P&IDs

• Typical system accuracy +20%

• Typical time per item of equipment .5 - 1.0 mh/item

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Steps to Accuracy (5) 0 to +10%

Level of Accuracy

+10%
Develop
definitive
estimate
+20%

-25/+35% Budget
-30 /+50%
Conceptual estimate
Enter estimate
+50%
known Calibrate
Out project
of the box data

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Introduction to Aspen Kbase Day One

Budget Estimate (Process Package)

• Percent of Engineering 30 to 70%
• Project data available:
– Prior phase data
– 90% P&IDs
– Layouts of steelwork (site selected)
– Key equipment quotes
– Execution plan

• Typical system accuracy +10%

• Typical time per item of equipment 1.5 - 2.0 mh/item

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Steps to Accuracy (6) 0 to +10%

Level of Accuracy

+10%
Develop
definitive
estimate
+20%

-25/+35% Budget
-30 /+50%
Conceptual estimate
Enter estimate
+50%
known Calibrate
Out project
of the box data

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Introduction to Aspen Kbase Day One

Definitive Estimate (Design Package)

• Percent of Engineering 50% to 100%
• Project data available:
– Prior phase data
– Additional dimensions (e.g., for paving)
– Rack pipe drawings
– Equipment quotes

• Typical system accuracy 0 to +10%

• Typical time per item of equipment 2.0 - 2.5 mh/item

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Accuracy
“The deviation of the final constructed cost from the
original estimate”

• Estimate accuracy is affected more by the quality of the

scope definition than by estimating methods or the
estimator’s experience
• Estimate accuracy is a function of ongoing project cost
control and cost management
• Estimate accuracy is a function of the time available for
preparing the estimate
• Estimate accuracy cannot be measured until the estimated
and final scopes are reconciled
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