12.

2 Hypothesis Tests for One Population Proportion 557

12.51 x = 16, n = 20, 90% level.
12.52 x = 3, n = 100, 99% level.
In each of Exercises 12.53–12.56, use the one-proportion plus-
four z-interval procedure, as discussed on page 551, to find the
required confidence interval. Interpret your results.
12.53 Bank Bailout. In the January 2009 article “Ameri-
cans on Bailout: Stop Spending,” P. Steinhauser reported on
a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll that found that, of
1245 U.S. adults sampled, 758 opposed providing more govern-
ment money for the financial bailout of banks. Obtain a 95% con-
fidence interval for the proportion of all U.S. adults who, at the
time, opposed providing more government money for the finan-
cial bailout of banks.
12.54 Social Networking. A Pew Internet & American Life
project examined Internet social networking by age group. Ac-
cording to the report, among online adults 18–24 years of age,
75% have a profile on at least one social networking site. Assum-
ing a sample size of 328, determine a 95% confidence interval for
the percentage of all online adults 18–24 years of age who have
a profile on at least one social networking site.
12.55 Breast-Feeding. In the May 2008 New York Times ar-
ticle “More Mothers Breast-Feed, in First Months at Least,”
G. Harris reported that 77% of new mothers breast-feed their in-
fants at least briefly, the highest rate seen in the United States
in more than a decade. His report was based on data for 434 in-
fants from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Sur-
vey, which involved in-person interviews and physical examina-
tions. Find a 90% confidence interval for the percentage of all
new mothers who breast-feed their infants at least briefly.
12.56 Offshore Drilling. In the July 2008 article “Americans
Favor Offshore Drilling,” B. Rooney reported on a CNN/Opinion
Research Corporation poll that asked what Americans think
about offshore drilling for oil and natural gas. Of the 500
U.S. adults surveyed, 150 said that they opposed offshore
drilling. Find a 99% confidence interval for the proportion of all
U.S. adults who, at the time, opposed offshore drilling for oil and
natural gas.

12.2 Hypothesis Tests for One Population Proportion

In Section 12.1, we showed how to obtain confidence intervals for a population pro-
portion. Now we show how to perform hypothesis tests for a population proportion.
This procedure is actually a special case of the one-mean z-test.
From Key Fact 12.1 on page 547, we deduce that, for large n, the standardized
version of p̂,
p̂ − p
z=√ ,
p(1 − p)/n
has approximately the standard normal distribution. Consequently, to perform a large-
sample hypothesis test with null hypothesis H0: p = p0 , we can use the variable
p̂ − p0
z=√
p0 (1 − p0 )/n
as the test statistic and obtain the critical value(s) or P-value from the standard normal
table, Table II.
We call this hypothesis-testing procedure the one-proportion z-test.† Proce-
dure 12.2 on the next page provides a step-by-step method for performing a one-
Applet 12.3 proportion z-test by using either the critical-value approach or the P-value approach.

EXAMPLE 12.6 The One-Proportion z-Test

Economic Stimulus In late January 2009, Gallup, Inc., conducted a national poll
of 1053 U.S. adults that asked their views on an economic stimulus plan. The ques-
tion was, “As you may know, Congress is considering a new economic stimulus
package of at least 800 billion dollars. Do you favor or oppose Congress passing
this legislation?” Of those sampled, 548 favored passage. At the 5% significance
level, do the data provide sufficient evidence to conclude that a majority (more
than 50%) of U.S. adults favored passage?

† The one-proportion z-test is also known as the one-sample z-test for a population proportion and the one-
variable proportion test.
558 CHAPTER 12 Inferences for Population Proportions

PROCEDURE 12.2 One-Proportion z-Test

Purpose To perform a hypothesis test for a population proportion, p
Assumptions
1. Simple random sample
2. Both np0 and n(1 − p0 ) are 5 or greater
Step 1 The null hypothesis is H0: p = p0 , and the alternative hypothesis is
Ha: p  = p0 Ha: p < p0 Ha: p > p0
or or
(Two tailed) (Left tailed) (Right tailed)

Step 2 Decide on the significance level, α.

Step 3 Compute the value of the test statistic
p̂ − p0
z=
p0 (1 − p0 )/n
and denote that value z0 .

CRITICAL-VALUE APPROACH OR P-VALUE APPROACH

Step 4 The critical value(s) are Step 4 Use Table II to obtain the P-value.
±zα/2 −zα zα
or or P - value
(Two tailed) (Left tailed) (Right tailed)
Use Table II to find the critical value(s). P- value P -value

z z z
− |z0 | 0 |z0 | z0 0 0 z0
Reject Do not Reject Reject Do not reject H 0 Do not reject H 0 Reject
H0 reject H 0 H0 H0 H0 Two tailed Left tailed Right tailed

/2  /2   Step 5 If P ≤ α, reject H0 ; otherwise, do not

−z /2 0 z /2
z
−z  0
z
0 z
z reject H0 .
Two tailed Left tailed Right tailed

Step 5 If the value of the test statistic falls in

the rejection region, reject H0 ; otherwise, do not
reject H0 .

Step 6 Interpret the results of the hypothesis test.

Solution Because n = 1053 and p0 = 0.50 (50%), we have

np0 = 1053 · 0.50 = 526.5 and n(1 − p0 ) = 1053 · (1 − 0.50) = 526.5.

Because both np0 and n(1 − p0 ) are 5 or greater, we can apply Procedure 12.2.

Step 1 State the null and alternative hypotheses.

Let p denote the proportion of all U.S. adults who favored passage of the economic
stimulus package. Then the null and alternative hypotheses are, respectively,

H0: p = 0.50 (it is not true that a majority favored passage)

Ha: p > 0.50 (a majority favored passage).

Note that the hypothesis test is right tailed.

 12.2 Hypothesis Tests for One Population Proportion 559

Step 2 Decide on the significance level, α.

We are to perform the hypothesis test at the 5% significance level; so, α = 0.05.
Step 3 Compute the value of the test statistic
p̂ − p0
z= .
p0 (1 − p0 )/n
We have n = 1053 and p0 = 0.50. The number of U.S. adults surveyed who favored
passage was 548. Therefore the proportion of those surveyed who favored passage
is p̂ = x/n = 548/1053 = 0.520 (52.0%). So, the value of the test statistic is
0.520 − 0.50
z=√ = 1.30.
(0.50)(1 − 0.50)/1053

CRITICAL-VALUE APPROACH OR P-VALUE APPROACH

Step 4 The critical value for a right-tailed test is zα .
Use Table II to find the critical value.
For α = 0.05, the critical value is z 0.05 = 1.645, as
shown in Fig. 12.2A.
FIGURE 12.2A
Do not reject H 0 Reject H 0
Step 4 Use Table II to obtain the P-value.
From Step 3, the value of the test statistic is z = 1.30.
The test is right tailed, so the P-value is the probability
of observing a value of z of 1.30 or greater if the null
hypothesis is true. That probability equals the shaded
area in Fig. 12.2B, which by Table II is 0.0968.
FIGURE 12.2B

P-value
0.05
z
z 0
0 1.645
z = 1.30
Step 5 If the value of the test statistic falls in
the rejection region, reject H0 ; otherwise, do not Step 5 If P ≤ α, reject H0 ; otherwise, do not
reject H0 . reject H0 .

From Step 3, the value of the test statistic is z = 1.30,
which, as Fig. 12.2A shows, does not fall in the rejection
region. Thus we do not reject H0 . The test results are not
statistically significant at the 5% level.
From Step 4, P = 0.0968. Because the P-value ex-
ceeds the specified significance level of 0.05, we do not
reject H0 . The test results are not statistically signifi-
cant at the 5% level, but (see Table 9.8 on page 378)
the data do provide moderate evidence against the null
hypothesis.

Step 6 Interpret the results of the hypothesis test.

Interpretation At the 5% significance level, the data do not provide sufficient
evidence to conclude that a majority of U.S. adults favored passage of the economic
Report 12.2
stimulus package.
Exercise 12.65
on page 561

Note: Example 12.6 illustrates how statistical results are sometimes misstated. The
headline on the Web site featuring the survey read, “In U.S., Slim Majority Supports
Economic Stimulus Plan.” In fact, the poll results say no such thing. They say only that
a slim majority (52%) of those sampled supported the economic stimulus plan. As we
have demonstrated, at the 5% significance level, the poll does not provide sufficient
evidence to conclude that a majority of U.S. adults supported passage of the economic
stimulus plan.