Games Intelligence Service - Premium

Report

Mobile Games Q2 2019: Mobile fuels battle royale scene as PC

and console platforms lose momentum
July 2019

Louise Shorthouse, Research Analyst, +44 2033 670622, louise.shorthouse@ihsmarkit.com

Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

 Mobile Games Q2 2019 – July 2019

Contents

Q2 2019 performance
‫‮‬ 04

Top 10 mobile games apps

‫‮‬ 05

Top publisher performance

‫‮‬ 06

Battle royale market overview

‫‮‬ 07

Fortnite’s dominance under threat

‫‮‬ 08

India dive: Android’s market monopoly

‫‮‬ 09

AR: Wizards Unite’s slow start 10

AAA publishers showcase mobile titles at E3

‫‮‬ 11

Autobattlers: the latest PC mod trend

‫‮‬ 12

Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. 2

 Mobile Games Q2 2019 – July 2019

Introduction and notes

IHS Markit has partnered with Priori Data , part of the appScatter Group, to produce this report. Priori Data provides IHS Markit with country-level mobile apps data to
support analysis of the mobile games market, mobile games companies and title performance from its Priori Data mobile app data intelligence suite of products. The
combination‫‮‬of‫‮‬Priori‫‮‬Data‫’‮‬s‫‮‬title-level mobile apps data and the extensive expertise of IHS Markit in the app economy and mobile ecosystems helps deliver deeper
insight into these market opportunities.

IHS Markit Technology is the leading source of information, insight and analytics in critical areas that shape the technology ecosystem—from materials and
components, to devices and equipment, to end markets and consumers. Clients worldwide rely on the independent insights of our 300+ analysts in sectors spanning
IT, telecom, media, industrial, automotive, electronics, solar and more. Games Intelligence Premium is IHS Markit's comprehensive games market data and analysis
research product for those companies with an interest or stake in the games sector value chain. Discover more about our research products at technology.ihs.com.

For more information on this partnership or to learn more about IHS Markit services please contact customercare@ihsmarkit.com

Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. 3

 Mobile Games Q2 2019 – July 2019

Mobile games quarter-over-quarter: Asian markets boost iOS growth as

App Store fights back against Google Play
When combining mobile games net revenue from Apple App Store and Google Play, there is Global mobile games app net revenue - Google Play and Apple App Store
a marginal increase in Q2 versus Q1 2019. Growth was almost entirely driven by Apple App 9,500
Store, which saw overall gains of $115.2m – a 2.4% increase QoQ. Google Play was 9,300
comparatively flat, with a mere 0.12% growth. Although the Android market is thriving

Net revenue ($m)

9,100
8,767 8,850
throughout emerging territories due to cost and accessibility, it may take some time for 8,900
mobile games spend to catch up. 8,700
8,500
App Store reaffirms its lead via strong Asian titles 8,300
8,100
Apple App Store leads Google Play, with $4.9b vs. $3.9b net revenue in Q2. The App Store 7,900
is boosted primarily by significant Asian markets such as China and Japan. Game for 7,700
Peace, which launched in China in May, does not have a Google Play equivalent, and this 7,500
Q1 2019 Q2 2019
title alone brought in over $50m in iOS net revenue for the quarter.
Source: Priori Data © 2019 IHS Markit
Perfect World Mobile is another high-performing, recently-launched Chinese title which has
helped to offset any seasonal decline post-lunar‫‮‬new‫‮‬year.‫‮‬China’s‫‮‬iOS‫‮‬market‫‮‬saw‫‮‬growth‫‮‬
of around $33m QoQ, driven by these new releases which have to some extent usurped
Google Play and App Store combined, net game apps revenue ($m)
users from top-ranking titles Honor of Kings and Fantasy Westward Journey.
3,000 10%
IHS Markit data shows that iPhone takes a strong 65% share of the high-spending Japanese 8%

Net revenue ($m)

2,500 6%
smartphone market, and so a marginal increase of 2% in iOS net revenue QoQ for the 4%
2,000
territory – versus a decline for Google Play – represents a significant contribution to App 2%
Store’s‫‮‬overall‫‮‬growth. 1,500 0%
-2%
1,000 -4%
Clash of Clans surges in Western territories 500 -6%
-8%
Social casino title Coin Master – which continues to boom - and‫‮‬Supercell’s‫‮‬Clash of Clans 0 -10%
USA Japan China South Germany Taiwan United Canada Australia France
drove notable revenue gains across Western markets including the UK, Germany, France Korea Kingdom
and the USA. Clash of Clans saw a strong increase of 85% QoQ, a result of the new Season
Q1 2019 Q2 2019 QoQ Growth
Challenges which were introduced in April: Battle Pass-style reward tracks which reset on a
Source: Priori Data © 2019 IHS Markit
monthly basis and have proven strong monetisation drivers.

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 Mobile Games Q2 2019 – July 2019

Top performing titles: Fortnite pushed out by Homescapes and Coin Master,
with 7 new titles in the most-downloaded
Title Publisher Net revenue Q2 2019 Title Publisher Downloads Q2 2019
Candy Crush Saga* King (and Tencent) $233m Run Race 3D Good Job Games 111m

Clash of Clans Supercell $182m Garena Free Fire Garena International 78m

PUBG Mobile* Tencent (and various) $154m Traffic Run! Geisha Tokyo 62m

Pokémon GO Niantic $142m Clean Road SayGames 60m

Fate/Grand Order* Aniplex/Sony (and various) $127m Tiles Hop – EDM Rush Amanotes 59m

Homescapes Playrix $115m Color Bump 3D Good Job Games 56m

Monster Strike XFLAG $107m Subway Surfers Kiloo 56m

Coin Master Moon Active $106m Bottle Flip 3D Tastypill 53m

Roblox Roblox Corp. $100m House Paint SayGames 52m

Puzzle & Dragons GungHo Online Entertainment $98m Crowd City Voodoo 47m
Notes: Note: Data is combined view of Apple App Store and Google Play net revenues and downloads - does not include third-party Android
Source: Priori Data © 2019 IHS Markit
app stores
*Includes all versions including third-party published

Source: Priori Data © 2018 IHS Markit

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 Mobile Games Q2 2019 – July 2019

Top publisher performance: Tencent extends its lead via PUBG Mobile and
Perfect World, whilst King suffers Candy Crush decline
Tencent’s‫‮‬overall‫‮‬net‫‮‬revenue‫‮‬for‫‮‬Q2‫‮‬grew‫‮‬by‫‮‬more‫‮‬than‫‮‬18%‫‮‬versus‫‮‬Q1‫ –‮‬an increase of $106m. Publisher Net revenue Q1 2019 Publisher Net revenue Q2 2019
Some of this growth can be attributed to the on-going success of the international version of
PUBG Mobile, which saw quarter-over-quarter gains of $53.4m, representing a 64% surge. Tencent $588m Tencent $694m

Further growth emerged from Game for Peace, which launched in May as a state-friendly version King $410m NetEase $330m
of PUBG Mobile for‫‮‬Chinese‫‮‬audiences,‫‮‬generating‫‮‬over‫‮‬$50m‫‮‬in‫‮‬net‫‮‬revenue‫‮‬in‫‮‬Q2.‫‮‬China’s‫‮‬ NetEase $384m Supercell $300m
Perfect World Mobile, an MMORPG based on the PC IP, was released in early March and
contributed its first full quarter of revenue for Tencent. Bandai Namco $302m King $268m

Supercell $283m Bandai Namco $230m

Candy Crush maintains pole position as King declines
Aniplex Inc. $182m Playrix $224m
Despite seeing a decrease of $54m in net revenue QoQ, NetEase rises to second place following
Niantic $163m Niantic $143m
a‫‮‬considerable‫‮‬decay‫‮‬for‫‮‬King’s‫‮‬Candy Crush Saga. Despite seeing a 17% decline versus Q1, the
title is so far ahead of the competition that even a notable dip is not enough to see it drop out of Konami $134m Netmarble $129m
the top ranking position.
XFLAG $108m Konami $128m
Dokkan Battle decays by half, but new Legends title could compensate in Q3 Line Corp. $98m Square Enix $126m

Bandai‫‮‬Namco’s‫‮‬Dragon Ball Z Dokkan Battle saw decline in both domestic and international Note: Data is combined view of Apple App Store and Google Play net revenues and downloads - does not include third-party
Android app stores
markets, with a 51% net revenue loss versus Q1. This suggests that the title has perhaps peaked.
Source: Priori Data © 2019 IHS Markit
Some users may also have been cannibalised by newcomer Dragon Ball Legends which only
launched in May, and so cannot make up for a full quarter of decline for Dokkan Battle.

RPGs drive publisher growth in Japan

New top 10 entrant Netmarble was boosted by the June release of Japan-only title Seven Deadly
Sins, which generated over $15m in the last few weeks of Q2 alone, suggesting further growth
moving into Q3. Square Enix is similarly buoyed by domestic RPGs Dragon Quest of the Stars
and Romancing SaGa Re: Universe.

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 Mobile Games Q2 2019 – July 2019

Battle royale genre generates upwards of $1.7b in net revenue since 2017

Battle royale market main contributors - total net revenue and downloads, Apple App Battle royale genre total net revenue by country - top 10, Apple App Store and Google
Store and Google Play combined Play combined*

600 450 USA

400 Japan
500
350 China

400 300 Brazil

Net revenue ($m)

Downloads (m)
Thailand
250
300
Saudi Arabia
200

Canada
200 150

Turkey
100
100
United Kingdom
50

Indonesia
0 0
Fortnite* Knives Out PUBG Mobile Garena Free Rules of Game for 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Fire Survival Peace
Net revenue ($m)

Notes: Fortnite net revenue is Apple App Store only Notes: *China is IOS only
Source: Priori Data © 2019 IHS Markit Source: Priori Data © 2019 IHS Markit

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 Mobile Games Q2 2019 – July 2019

Battle royale: Fortnite’s dominance under threat as decline continues into Q2

The mobile battle royale scene has had its strongest quarter yet, with huge growth of 158% year- Top battle royale titles – net revenue by quarter, Apple App Store and Google
on-year. USA, Japan and China are leading the way for battle royale spending, but other Play combined
territories driving revenue range from South America to the Middle East, demonstrating the global
appeal of the gameplay.
180
Lack of between-Season activity leaves Fortnite flat

Fortnite’s‫‮‬Apple‫‮‬App‫‮‬Store‫‮‬net‫‮‬revenue‫‮‬has‫‮‬further‫‮‬decayed‫‮‬in‫‮‬Q2,‫‮‬despite‫‮‬a‫‮‬lucrative‫‮‬Season‫‮‬9‫‮‬in‫‮‬ 160
May where upon its release, upwards of $2.8m was generated daily.
140

Net revenue ($m)

Events and item sales, such as the Marshmello concert and the introduction of the soccer skins,
drove Q1 performance peaks, but similar activities were not mirrored in Q2, which remained flat. 120
These revenue surges propped up the title despite a financially disappointing Season 8 - the
result of a decision to give away free Battle Passes.
100
PUBG Mobile net revenue has almost tripled since Q4 2018
80
Android takes a substantial 80% share of the PUBG Mobile market, which is reflective of its
popularity across emerging, Android-first territories. Significantly, neither PUBG Mobile nor
60
Fortnite have thus far managed to monetise the Chinese audience.

Japanese iOS users drive Knives Out resurgence 40

96% of Knives Out net revenue is generated in Japan, and 86% of this is derived from the Apple 20
App Store alone. Despite seeing negative growth across all other versions - Chinese, Taiwanese,
and global Android – a 21.6% increase for the global iOS version represents an improved
0
performance overall.
Fortnite* PUBG Mobile Knives Out
The‫‮‬title’s‫‮‬remarkable‫‮‬consistency‫‮‬is‫‮‬perhaps‫‮‬testament‫‮‬to‫‮‬it’s‫‮‬largely‫‮‬Japanese‫‮‬player-base.
Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019
Titles such as Monster Strike and Puzzle & Dragons have maintained strong performances for
several years, despite being virtually confined to Japan.
Notes: * Fortnite net revenue is Apple App Store only
Source: Priori Data © 2019 IHS Markit

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 Mobile Games Q2 2019 – July 2019

India dive: An Android-first, emerging market coming to terms with a mobile

games influx
Android dominance favours certain titles India iOS and Android smartphone active installed base forecast
IHS Markit data shows that smartphone penetration of the overall population of India is 40% in 900
2019. Only 5% of this group comprises iOS devices - much lower than the global average of
around 19% - leaving Android with a huge 95% majority. 800

This imbalance is primarily a result of cost. Cheaper Android devices from Chinese smartphone
companies such as Xiaomi enjoy widespread popularity, whilst many consumers are inherently 700
priced out of iPhone products. Titles which are unavailable on Google Play are therefore at a
considerable disadvantage in terms of exposure.

Active installed base (m)

600
The cultural PUBG phenomenon

The success of PUBG Mobile – India’s‫‮‬most‫‮‬popular‫‮‬smartphone‫‮‬game‫‮‬- can be partially 500

attributed to the state of the OS market. Competitor Fortnite not only launched months later into a
territory already hooked on PUBG,‫‮‬but‫‮‬it’s‫‮‬lack‫‮‬of‫‮‬availability‫‮‬via‫‮‬Google‫‮‬Play‫‮‬rendered‫‮‬it‫‮‬far‫‮‬less‫‮‬
easily accessible in comparison. 400

The title has a dedicated and widespread following across the territory: Twitch and YouTube are
300
awash with Indian PUBG streamers, and national esports tournaments such as the mobile
Campus Championship offer substantial prize pools.
200
Market potential limited by politics and wealth disparity

Whilst PUBG Mobile performs extremely well in India, the mobile gaming market as a whole 100
remains small. Affluence continues to grow and the country is increasingly urbanised, but as a
games market it is still embryonic.
0
Fears‫‮‬surrounding‫‮‬the‫‮‬game’s‫‮‬impact‫‮‬in‫‮‬terms‫‮‬of‫‮‬violence‫‮‬and‫‮‬addiction‫‮‬have‫‮‬resulted‫‮‬in‫‮‬ 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
widespread bans across Indian cities, an issue which is likely to be on-going, particularly as the
gaming scene evolves and expands. Android iOS
Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit

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 Mobile Games Q2 2019 – July 2019

AR: Modest launch for Wizards Unite as Pokémon GO remains dominant

Based on the Harry Potter IP, Wizard’s Unite is‫‮‬Niantic’s‫‮‬latest‫‮‬mobile‫‮‬offering,‫‮‬providing‫‮‬a‫‮‬ Pokémon GO and Wizards Unite net revenue per download comparison* - 2 week
refined, Pokémon GO-inspired AR experience. Initially, the title appears quite complex with some post-launch period
users also reporting an aggressive approach to monetisation, and we believe these factors are
reflected in its early performance. 1.0

Niantic’s new title cannot re-capture Pokémon GO’s magic

0.9
In its first 14 days, the title racked up 11.8m downloads and generated around $2.9m in net
revenue, driven largely by the USA and Western Europe. Although significant in terms of the 0.8
lacklustre AR games scene more broadly, these figures pale in comparison to competitor 0.73
Pokémon GO, which saw over 70m downloads and $51.2m in net revenue in the same 14-day 0.7
post-launch period.

Net revenue ($)

Pokémon GO delivered very high ARPU, generating around $0.73 in net revenue per download in 0.6
that 14 day period. This suggests that players were more engaged from the onset, with Wizards
Unite managing only a third of this. However, it is worth noting that a return of $0.25 in net 0.5
revenue per download over a period of two weeks remains a solid performance.
0.4
Wizards Unite formula suggests more work needed to deliver a hit
0.25
Pokémon GO represented a ground-breaking new format for gamers, and was the first truly viral 0.3
AR title. Wizards Unite is built on an established style of play, making explosive virality far less
likely.‫‮‬The‫‮‬game’s‫‮‬complexity‫‮‬may‫‮‬confuse‫‮‬less-than-hardcore fans of the franchise, and overly- 0.2
zealous monetisation can be alienating.
0.1
Further‫‮‬growth‫‮‬is‫‮‬partially‫‮‬dependent‫‮‬on‫‮‬Niantic’s‫‮‬actions.‫‮‬Delivering‫‮‬updates‫‮‬and‫‮‬alterations‫‮‬is‫‮‬
likely to gradually mould the title into a more substantial success. The Harry Potter IP is one of
very few to be able to compete on a global scale with the likes of Pokémon - its fanbase is 0.0
Pokémon GO Wizards Unite
more‫‮‬diverse‫‮‬than‫‮‬the‫‮‬latter’s‫‮‬core‫‮‬gaming‫‮‬audience,‫‮‬and‫‮‬will‫‮‬likely‫‮‬take‫‮‬more‫‮‬work‫‮‬to‫‮‬engage‫‮‬
and monetise. Net revenue per download
Notes: *Apple App Store & Google Play combined
Source: Priori Data © 2019 IHS Markit

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 Mobile Games Q2 2019 – July 2019

E3 2019: Mobile games afforded increasing coverage from AAA-publishers,

whilst Nintendo prioritises Switch
Nintendo’s mobile no-show raises questions E3 mobile titles Publisher Genre Launch date
Of all the publishers, Nintendo seems best-poised to capitalize on the lucrative mobile gaming Tom Clancy’s Elite Squad Ubisoft RPG battler TBA
market given its huge collection of suitable IP, and its existing expertise and fan-base in handheld
Elder Scrolls Legends Bethesda Collectible card game March 2017 /
devices. Previous mobile excursions have proven disappointing – Super Mario Run was bogged
down by its premium business model. Perhaps the publisher is being more selective about its Fallout Shelter Bethesda Simulation June 2015 / Tesla 2019
audience, but is it worth it? There is virtually no bigger platform than E3.
Commander Keen Zenimax Tactical strategy Summer 2019
Multiple mobile titles showcased across the board Gears POP! Microsoft RTS battler TBA 2019

Conversely, many of the other big publishers used the stage to share their mobile plans. Ubisoft War of the Visions Final Fantasy Square Enix RPG TBA 2019
announced‫‮‬Tom‫‮‬Clancy’s‫‮‬Elite‫‮‬Squad:‫‮‬a‫‮‬F2P‫‮‬RPG‫‮‬battler‫‮‬which‫‮‬combines‫‮‬characters‫‮‬from‫‮‬across‫‮‬ Brave Exvius
the Clancy franchises. Bethesda opened its show with Elder Scrolls Blades, and built on its Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit
existing mobile catalogue with a new expansion for CCG Elder Scrolls Legends and the porting
of Fallout Shelter to Tesla autos. Old school id Software title Commander Keen also got a
21st century mobile makeover – likely to the disappointment of many of its original PC fans.

Square Enix introduced a global version of the gacha title War of the Visions Final Fantasy Brave
Exvius, and a corresponding partnership with singer-songwriter Katy Perry to use her music and
likeness in-game. This mirrors an earlier strategy involving Ariana Grande. It is no surprise that
the publisher – as a Japanese company with a considerable IP roster - continues to build on its
smartphone‫‮‬titles,‫‮‬but‫‮‬this‫‮‬makes‫‮‬Nintendo’s‫‮‬relative‫‮‬inability‫‮‬to‫‮‬establish‫‮‬a‫‮‬solid‫‮‬mobile‫‮‬presence‫‮‬
all the more perplexing.

Blurring platform boundaries on the physical stage

The‫‮‬mobile‫‮‬platform‫‮‬is‫‮‬now‫‮‬a‫‮‬key‫‮‬component‫‮‬of‫‮‬many‫‮‬publishers’‫‮‬offerings‫‮‬moving‫‮‬forward.‫‮‬
However, try as they might to minimize the platform divide, traditional console and PC gamers
remain resistant to the mobile onslaught.

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 Mobile Games Q2 2019 – July 2019

Autobattlers: New trend triggers Valve’s first mobile title and reignites
old rivalry
A sub-genre of the real-time strategy (RTS) category, autobattlers are characterized by units Auto Chess - Net revenue and downloads for June 2019*
being strategically placed around chess board-like map, followed by an automatic battle at the
end‫‮‬of‫‮‬each‫‮‬round.‫‮‬The‫‮‬format‫‮‬was‫‮‬originally‫‮‬popularized‫‮‬by‫‮‬Drodo‫‮‬Studios’ Dota 2 mod, Dota
Auto Chess. 50,000 250000

Much like MOBAs and battle royales, the autobattler genre emerged from the PC mod scene – a 45,000
space which has proven to be indicative of future trends; particularly esports.
40,000 200000
Familiar foes: Valve and Riot battle it out

Dota Underlords,‫‮‬Valve’s‫‮‬take‫‮‬on‫‮‬the‫‮‬trend,‫‮‬was‫‮‬launched‫‮‬in‫‮‬Beta‫‮‬on‫‮‬June‫‮‬20th‫‮‬for‫‮‬iOS,‫‮‬Android‫‮‬ 35,000

Net revenue ($)

and PC – with full cross-platform‫‮‬play.‫‮‬This‫‮‬represents‫‮‬Valve’s‫‮‬first‫‮‬foray‫‮‬into‫‮‬mobile‫‮‬gaming,‫‮‬

Downloads
a possible sign that the company is looking to expand its reach following industry pressures 30,000 150000
regarding revenue shares.
25,000
Teamfight Tactics is‫‮‬Riot‫‮‬Games’‫‮‬League of Legends-themed autobattler, released in Beta only
a week after Dota Underlords. It is only available on PC, leaving Valve and Drodo to mobile, but
20,000 100000
Riot‫‮‬have‫‮‬stated‫‮‬that‫‮‬they‫‮‬are‫‮‬not‫“‮‬ruling‫‮‬out”‫‮‬a‫‮‬smartphone‫‮‬version.

Stripped of the Dota IP, can Auto Chess compete? 15,000

Originator Drodo Studios was the first to bring the genre to smartphones through partnerships 10,000 50000
with Imba TV and Long Mobile. Standalone mobile title Auto Chess launched in May. Players of
the original mod can migrate their accounts to the mobile version to receive rewards, which 5,000
partially explains its initial though moderate success.
0 June 2019 0
A separate PC version is set to come exclusively to the Epic Games store later this year.
However, with industry heavyweights Valve and Riot also fighting for a share of the autobattler
market – and without the support of primary storefront Steam on PC - it will be tough for Auto Net revenue Downloads
Chess to maintain its position. Loyal fans of the original mod might stick around, but Dota and
LoL’s‫‮‬huge‫‮‬existing‫‮‬player-bases could prove instrumental. Notes: *Google Play & Apple App Store combined
Source: Priori Data © 2019 IHS Markit

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 Report Name / Month 2019

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