Climate change and water security

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Climate change affects all aspects of the water cycle through:

changing the water holding capacity of the atmosphere

shifting weather patterns

changing evaporation rates

melting frozen water storages (glaciers and permafrost lands)

changing hydrological regimes

changes in the frequency of extreme events

The expected impacts of climate change on the water cycle lead to significant concerns regarding water
security. For example, increased storm intensities pose direct threats to people and infrastructure

Here we’ll introduce key ideas around the impacts of climate change on global water resources. We’ll
discuss the ecological consequences and the methods used to investigate these impacts on water
resources.

The links and articles suggested in this step are optional but might improve your understanding of the
subject.

Some examples of climate change impacts on water resources

Based on the understanding of current regional climates, observed data and model simulations, we can
identify several physical impacts that will influence future water security.

1. Intensification of the hydrological cycle

This refers to the impacts of climate change on the physical processes that drive the hydrological cycle.

In warmer climates, evaporation rates increase, and so soil moisture decreases. When soils dry out, the
severity of droughts increases. So, in most dry sub-tropical regions, water resources are likely to
decrease due to the increased evaporation rates.
Conversely, the atmosphere has a greater water holding capacity when it becomes warmer. This means
that, when a precipitation events occurs, rainfall is likely to be more intense. So, in temperate high
latitude regions with high humidity levels, water resources tend to increase due to increases in
precipitation.

Read more about the intensification of the hydrological cycle

2. The expansion of the tropics

Tropical climates span the region between 30 degrees North and South. Adjacent to this equatorial band
are expanses of dry regions, the sub-tropics. Since the late 1970s, atmospheric observations indicate
that the region of the tropical belt has expanded. Whilst the exact mechanisms are not fully understood,
the expansion is most likely driven by increasing greenhouse gases and pollutants.

The implication of an expanding tropical region is a poleward push of the dry subtropical regions. These
encroach into previously more moist and temperate regions at higher latitudes. This has significant
implications for local communities and livelihoods as it reduces water resource availability and soil
capacity for farming.

Read more about the expansion of the tropics

3. Reduction of snowfields and glaciers

In a warmer world, we can expect a decrease in precipitation falling as snow, particularly at the end and
start of the snow season and in regions where temperatures are close to freezing. A warmer world also
leads to a reduction in ice cover (in most locations), hence a diminishing snowpack, glacier depth and
extent.

Consequences for water resource management include an earlier onset of snowmelt and a decreasing
source of water supply from glacier melt in spring and summer. This has significant implications for
many of the downstream communities who rely on glacier melt waters, namely in the dry seasons.

As an example, you can read this news item that explains how Asia’s glaciers are likely to shrink by a
third by 2100, threatening water supply of millions.

4. Impact on aquatic ecosystems

Growing evidence shows that streams, rivers and lakes are among the most sensitive ecosystems to
climate change. However, the processes involved differ among regions because of the different ways in
which hydrological and thermal processes are disrupted.
For example, glacial retreat in the French Pyrenees has different effects to those of changing drought
frequency in Australia or changing thermal regimes in temperate Europe.

The evidence from long-term data and experiments, shows, for example, that:

Organisms in freshwater ecosystems are linked closely to their hydrology, hydraulics, and sequences of
floods or droughts: processes that change the hydrological cycle inevitably affect organisms

Thermal regimes in freshwater are linked closely to the atmosphere: although damped by the greater
heat capacity of water or by groundwater cooling, atmospheric warming or more intense solar radiation
leads to warmer waters

Many freshwater organisms are ‘cold blooded’: their temperatures, metabolic rates, growth rates and
oxygen demands track the water temperatures around them

Warmer waters hold less oxygen than cooler waters – so warming directly affects a major limiting factor
for many aquatic species

Climate change interacts with other pressures on freshwater ecosystems, for example from intensified
catchment land-use, pollution, water abstraction and invasive species

In the next step we’ll look at how these could effect the future.

Future climates
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How do scientists predict future climates?

Future climate change projections need information on greenhouse

gas concentrations in decades and centuries to come and an
understanding of how the earth system will respond to such changes.

The reason these projections need information on emissions of

greenhouse gases is that these reflect things like population growth,
economic development, use of energy resources or transport
methods.
Climate scientists therefore came up with a range of different but
plausible emission pathways, called Representation Concentration
Pathways (RCPs).

Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface

warming by the late 21st century and beyond. Most aspects of climate
change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are
stopped - Last IPCC report 2014

The climate response to these emission scenarios is simulated using

global climate models. Whilst differing in complexity, these models
represent physical processes that influence the movement of heat and
mass in the atmosphere and ocean. These models remain quite
coarse, with spatial resolutions around 100-200km.
Producing change information for use in impact
studies
Global climate models are very useful to predict how the world is
changing globally, but governments, businesses and individuals need
information that will be useful at a much smaller scale.

There are climate scientists that work on ‘downscaling’ these models.

One of the issues of downscaling, is that many assumptions and
simplifications need to be made. So, the uncertainty over predictions
is usually much higher.

How ‘good’ are model simulations of future climates?

Models are simplifications of the real world and can be more or less
skilful in simulating climate change. To support the development of
climate models, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
organise regular model inter-comparison projects.

WCRP experiments help scientists understand model capabilities in

simulating natural climate variability and predictability on decadal and
centennial time scales. They produced results that underpinned much
of the climate science reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC).

To avoid becoming reliant on the outcomes from any particular model,

good practice in climate change research stipulates that researchers
should attempt to consider all the key sources of uncertainty when
investigating climate change impacts. These include:

 Natural climate variability (dominates on relatively short time

scales of years up to a few decades)
 Model uncertainty (model ability to simulate the climate response
– relevant on all time scales)
  Emissions (uncertainty expands with time due to the cumulative
effect of following lower or higher emission rates).

The relative contribution of these to the total uncertainty of a projection

varies between variables and regions. For example, rainfall
projections are typically more varied compared to temperature
projections because rainfall is strongly influenced not only by warming
of the atmosphere, but also by shifts in atmospheric circulation
patterns

 Learn about potential pitfalls in the use of climate

change data for adaptation work

Emerging pollutants
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The so called ‘emergent pollutants’ that arise from the

production of synthetic chemicals are attracting increasing
attention, often dominating environmental news.

However, the array of complex chemicals that can pose a significant

risk to freshwater ecosystems is large.

In this step, we will explore the diverse suite of chemicals present

within freshwater systems and highlight their potential for negative
effects.

The links to external sources are optional reading if you are interested
in a certain area. You’re not expected to read them all.

The concentrations and distribution of chemical pollution in fresh water

is highly variable locally, regionally and globally. The existence of a
wide range of sources and transfers mean that the composition of
pollution at any given site is invariably relatively unique.
Effects can arise from some chemicals that are present in the highest
concentrations, but also the nature and interactions among chemical
mixtures can dictate the overall environmental effects within the
environment.

 Read more about the increasing threat from emergent

pollutants (UNESCO)
1. Plastic pollution
Plastics are produced in large quantities across the globe, and by
2015 around 5000 million metric tons of plastic had been released into
landfills or to the environment. As well the physical effects of
entanglement or blocking the digestive tracts of organisms, plastics
can give rise to toxic effects either from chemicals added to them
during production or bound to their surfaces.

Effects depend upon the size of the plastic relative to the organism.
Large, mega- (>1 m) and macro-plastics (>25 mm) can cause
significant negative effects across a range of organisms, from birds to
large mammals. At the other end of the spectrum, the effects of micro-
(0.001-1 mm) and nano-plastics (<0.001 mm) remain poorly
understood, yet a suite of ‘perceived risks’ exist.

The large number of ‘perceived risks’, has led to the portrayal of

plastic pollution as one of the largest threats to contemporary
biodiversity.

In comparison to other pollutants, however, the true risks of plastics in

the natural environment are extremely poorly quantified.

2. Pharmaceuticals
The development of pharmaceuticals, as well as increases in their
prescription and utilisation, has led to an exponential increase in the
concentrations observed in freshwater systems. As an example, over
1074 million prescriptions were dispensed in the UK over 2009.
This broad range of compounds has been a focus of contemporary
research due to the diversity of chemicals, the increasing volumes of
production and the fact they are manufactured with the intention that
they affect biological systems.

Pharmaceuticals operate through a range of pathways, from

neurological stimulation (Carbamazepine – an anticonvulsant) to
glucose inhibition (Metformin – an antihyperglycemic).

The mixture of pharmaceuticals present in freshwater ecosystems

pose a significant threat as the biological targets they interact with in
humans are also present in many organisms. For example,
approximately 90 % of human drug targets were shared with 23
assessed mammalian species. As with other chemicals, however, the
true scale of ecological effects is poorly quantified.

3. Industrial chemicals
The manufacture of industrial machinery and products continues to
produce toxic compounds. For example, flame retardants are widely
used in both commercial and domestic products and are associated
with significant disruption of the endocrine system in organisms.

This group of functionally important chemicals generate a range of

sub-lethal and lethal effects – from reduced growth to population
declines. These chemicals are often persistent within the environment,
and pose a long-term risk to freshwater ecosystems.

4. Heavy metals
Although no longer deemed ‘emergent’, heavy metals continue to be
released into freshwaters from different activities. Metal mining is still
a widespread activity in some parts of the world, while the legacy of
mining activities in former industrial regions is associated with
continued emission of copper (Cu), lead (Pb), zinc (Zn), mercury (Hg)
and cadmium (Cd) in former extraction sites. Industrial activities also
provide a source of heavy metal pollution, for example lead-acid
batteries and metal production (soldering).
The ecological effects of these pollutants can be severe and acid mine
drainage, a concoction of heavy metals, sulphur compounds and low
pH, has been linked to deleterious effects across aquatic ecosystems
downstream from a range of types of mines, including collieries. Many
metals are identified as carcinogenic as well as generally toxic.

5. Persistent organic pollutants (POPs)

In more economically developed regions or the world, POPs are now
considered legacy pollutants. Although no longer in production,
however, many remain detectable within water systems – often in
organisms. Their extreme persistence (half-lives >10 years), provides
a continued risk to freshwater species. The toxicity of these chemicals
is variable, but in many cases severe.

POPs were linked to large declines in top predators over the 1960s
and 1970s, in particular Peregrine falcons, Sparrowhawks and Otters.
The majority of these chemicals are now banned from either
production or use, yet their persistence provides a long-term threat to
biological communities.

 Read about the issues and responses to POPs at the

global scale

 More information on the predatory bird monitoring

scheme

6. Pesticides
The phase out of persistent chemicals, for uses such as pest control
(e.g. organochlorine pesticides), has led to the introduction of other
pesticides that can also give rise to biological effects in freshwater
ecosystems.

For example, large uses of organophosphates (e.g. dimethoate) and

synthetic pyrethroids (e.g. chlorpyrifos) in agricultural livestock
protection has been linked to downstream effects, with the loss of
invertebrate and fish taxa.
A contemporary suite of systemic pesticides such as neonicotinoids
(e.g. imidacloprid), incorporated into crop seedstocks, were initially
designed to avoid wider contamination, but evidence of non-target
effects on pollinating insects, soil organisms and freshwater
organisms is growing.

The continual development of pesticides has occurred over time, with

pesticides tested for direct effects on target organisms, applied across
agricultural systems and then retracted after effects are observed on
non-target taxa.

 Read more about pesticides and their effects

7. Inorganic compounds
Inorganic chemical pollutants are widespread and range from the use
of road salt to prevent ice formation, often in urban areas, to the uses
of nitrate and phosphate distributed as agricultural fertilisers. These
compounds, as well as sometimes being toxic in their own right, alter
the transport and behaviour of other pollutants, such as heavy metals.

Time-lags have been identified in both the release and mitigation of

nitrate and phosphate pollution across river catchments. Considerable
stores of both compounds can be remobilised over long periods of
time. In urban areas of Europe, large steps have been made to reduce
the levels of these regulated pollutants and complementary
improvements in biodiversity have been observed.

In other regions, often where agricultural is intensifying, the use of

these chemicals has increased – presenting a continued and
increasing threat to freshwater biodiversity.

Mitigation and management

Developing strategies for mitigating pollution is challenging. The range
of pollutants and multitude of sources makes the identification of risk
and subsequent implementation of management difficult.
Interventions at the source of production are most effective, for
example the ban on microbeads in the UK, yet this is often
unfeasible due to the widespread use of a chemical or its important
human uses (e.g. many pharmaceuticals).

Limiting the entrance of pollutants into the natural environment is the

most commonly adopted strategy, but in order to do this a large
volume of information is required:

 Relationships between environmental concentrations of

pollutants and ecological effects (dose-response relationships)
 Local and regional sources of pollution across catchments (e.g.
sewage treatment works, leaching from landfill, urban drainage
and rural runoff)
 Concentration of pollutants within compartments of the
environment (sediment and water)
 The potential ecological risk presented by pollutants across
catchments (site-specific)