TTE 4274:

Transportation Engineering Systems

Instructor: Sabreena Anowar, PhD

Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering
University of Central Florida

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Today’s Outline
• Public transportation
• Optimal headway
• Elasticity
• Road safety

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Basic Operating Elements - Headway
• Transit operator cost and passenger cost depend on
chosen headway
• Passenger cost, in the case when vehicles arrive
regularly, has linear increase with headway
• The greater the headway, the greater the
passenger waiting time and passenger cost
• Greater headway means for transit operator - smaller
number of departures and lower costs

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Basic Operating Elements - Headway
Dependence of the transit operator cost and passenger cost of headway

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Basic Operating Elements - Headway
• Let us assume that
• Z is the total cost per hour;
• c is the transit operator cost per bus hour;
• ν is the value of passenger waiting time per hour;
• r is the total number of passengers on line per hour
(ridership per hour);
• N is the number of vehicles assigned to the bus line; and
• h is the headway.

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Basic Operating Elements - Headway
• The transit operator cost per hour is equal to
𝑁×𝑐
• We assume regular vehicle arrivals. In this case, the
average waiting time per passenger w is equal to one
half of the vehicle headway h;
ℎ
𝑤=
2
• The waiting cost of all passengers is equal to
ℎ
υ ×𝑟×
2

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Basic Operating Elements - Headway
• The total cost is equal:
ℎ
𝑍 =𝑁×𝑐+υ ×𝑟×
2
𝑇
• Since, 𝑁 = ;
ℎ
𝑇 ℎ
𝑍 = ×𝑐+υ ×𝑟×
ℎ 2
• The optimal headway is found by setting the
derivative of Z with respect to h equal to zero:
𝑑𝑍 𝑇 υ ×𝑟
= −𝑐 × 2 + =0
𝑑ℎ ℎ 2

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Basic Operating Elements - Headway
• The optimal headway equals:
2×𝑐×𝑇
ℎ=
υ ×𝑟
• This is referred to as the “square root formula” for
optimizing headway and service frequency
• Minimal headway values in real-life are usually between
2 and 3 min.
• Maximal headways values are between 15 and 30 min.
• Outside of peak periods, on some transit lines, maximum
headway values reach 60 min.

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Basic Operating Elements - Headway
• The service frequency f is the inverse of the
headway:
1 υ ×𝑟
𝑓= =
ℎ 2×𝑐×𝑇

Service frequency
dependence of the
total number of
passengers on line
per hour.

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Basic Operating Elements - Headway
• Example:

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Passenger Travel Times
• Origin destination travel time:
𝑇𝑂𝐷 = 𝑡𝑎 + 𝑡𝑤 + 𝑡𝑜 + 𝑡𝑓

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Transit Ridership
• To determine impact on ridership and revenues of
any change in service policy
• Need to know how demand estimates will be used
• The value of shrinkage ratio is one way of measuring
demand elasticity of transit ridership with respect to
fare
• Shrinkage ratio is the percentage change in ridership
for each percent change in transit fare

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Fare Elasticity
• Shrinkage ratio elasticity for fare elasticity is
𝑄1 − 𝑄0
%Δ𝑄 𝑄0
𝜀𝑠ℎ𝑟 = =
%Δ𝑃 𝑃1 − 𝑃0
𝑃0

 𝑄1 = After ridership
 𝑄0 = Before ridership
 𝑃1 = After fare
 𝑃0 = Before fare

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Variation in Fare Elasticity
High Fare Elasticity Low Fare Elasticity

(Ridership More Sensitive) (Ridership Less Sensitive)

• Small urban areas • Large dense cities

• Sparse transit service • Rapid transit
• Low cost of driving • High cost of driving
• Low transit mode choice • High transit mode choice
• Off-peak • Peak period
• Weekends
• Feeder service

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Transit Ridership
• Shrinkage ratio elasticity for service elasticity is
𝑄1 − 𝑄0
%Δ𝑄 𝑄0
𝜀𝑠ℎ𝑟 = =
%Δ𝑃 𝑆1 − 𝑆0
𝑆0

 𝑄1 = After ridership
 𝑄0 = Before ridership
 𝑆1 = After fare
 𝑆0 = Before fare

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Example Problem
Example 1:
Let’s say that the bus route #8 carried on an average of 1000
passengers per day in the past year. The base fare during the past
year was 50 cents. If a fare increase to 75 cents was implemented,
and the resulting ridership was 805 per day, what is the fare
elasticity?

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Example Problem
Example 2:
Let’s say that the bus route #8 carried on an average of 1000
passengers per day in the past year. Half of the passenger on a
typical day rode during the AM and PM peak periods. The peak
and off-peak headways were 30 minutes.
a) What would be ridership on route #8 if headways were
increased to 60 minutes between buses? Peak headway elasticity
is -0.37. Off peak headway elasticity is -0.46.
b) Calculate the service frequency elasticity for the service
change proposed in the above example and the ridership
responses calculate from the above problem statement.

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Road Safety

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Transportation System Impacts
• Congestion
• Environmental Impact
• Air Pollution
• Greenhouse Gases, Global Climate Change
• Noise
• Consumption of land/Water
• Energy Consumption
• Safety
• Equity
• Social and Cultural Impacts
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Introduction
• Road safety - a major concern – both in developing
and developed world
• First motor vehicle crash fatality (in Ireland)
• In 1869, Irish scientist Mary Ward died when she fell out
of her cousins' steam car and was run over by it
• First speed related crash/pedestrian fatality (in UK)
• In 1896, Bridget Driscoll was the first pedestrian victim
of an automobile collision
• Since then, road traffic collisions have claimed many
more lives!
Introduction

Source: http://mentalfloss.com/article/31807/when-and-where-was-first-car-accident
Introduction
• Road traffic crashes are one of the leading causes of
death in the world
• 1.24 million persons are killed in road traffic accidents
each year (average of 3 thousand per day)
• 50 millions are injured
• The numbers are projected to increase by about 65%
over the next 20 years
• The death toll of road traffic crashes is expected to
become the fifth (currently eighth) leading cause of
death by the year 2030
Introduction
Introduction

http://gamapserver.who.int/gho/interactive_charts/road_safety/road_traffic_deaths2/atlas.html
Introduction
• Most developed countries have been able to achieve
a reduction in the crash related fatalities
25
Road traffic deaths per 100,000

20

15
population

10

0
Low Medium High

Country Income Status

Introduction
• Most developed countries have been able to achieve
a reduction in the crash related fatalities
25
Road traffic deaths per 100,000

20

15
population

10

0
Low Medium High

Country Income Status

Introduction
• Most developed countries have been able to achieve
a reduction in the crash related fatalities
25
Road safety Management
Road traffic deaths per 100,000
20 Safer Vehicle & Road User

Safer Roads & Mobility

15
population

Post Crash Response

10

0
Low Medium High

Country Income Status

Introduction
• The major elements that have improved road
safety include:
1. Vehicle safety regulatory standard
2. The design of highway
3. The social pressure to reduce drunk driving
4. Enhanced driver training
5. The installation of seat belts and air bags
6. Imposing a national speed limit
7. Emergency medical service (EMS)
Introduction
• The annual road fatality rate of the US declined from
25.7 deaths to 10.4 deaths per 100,000 population
between 1970 and 2011
• In the US, it is the 12th leading cause of death

90 deaths per day,

Cost society $230.6
billion annually
Introduction
• There were 1,976 more fatalities from motor
vehicle crashes in 2016 than in 2015 - a 5.6%
increase
Introduction
• There were 1,976 more fatalities from motor
vehicle crashes in 2016 than in 2015 - 5.6% increase
Introduction
• Florida
Factors that Contribute to Crashes

Source: https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/hsip/resources/fhwasa09029/sec3.cfm
Crash Data
• Police reported crash data is the most reliable and
primary source of crash data
• The national crash databases are usually compiled from
the police reported crash records
• Crash report form: A pre-printed standardized form on which
information can be recorded either in narrative form or on a
checklist
• Other documents:
• Photographs and sketch diagrams of the scene (these are usually
attached to the report),
• Witness information (statements)

• Secondary source: Hospital data, insurance data

Crash Report Form
Florida Crash Report Form
• Crash report forms:
• Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) Crash
Analysis Reporting System (CARS)
• Signal Four Analytics (S4A) databases
• FDOT CARS and S4A are long and short forms of
crash reports in the State of Florida, respectively
• The long form crash report includes higher injury severity
level or crash related to criminal activities (such as hit-
and-run or Driving Under Influence)
• The Short Form Report is used to report all other types of
traffic crashes
Analysis of Crash Data
• Accident statistics are measures (or estimates) of the
number and severity of accidents
• The reasons for analyzing crash data are to:
• Identify patterns that may exist
• Determine probable causes/factors
• Compare safety conditions among different locations
• The insight gained help develop countermeasures
that will reduce the rate (occurrence) and severity of
future crashes
Analysis of Crash Data
• To facilitate the comparison of safety conditions
among different locations, one or more of the
following procedures have been used:
• Direct comparison of number of crashes
• Direct comparison of crash rates
• Crash patterns
• Statistical comparison
Analysis of Crash Data
• Direct comparison of number of crashes
• Involves computing the number of crashes for the same
duration before and after the implementation of the safety
countermeasure or computing the number of crashes for
the same time period at different locations.
• The comparison may be done by computing the
percentage change in the number of crashes from
which some inferences can be made.
• Disadvantage:
• This procedure does not consider several factors (exposure), such
as the volume at the location or locations
Analysis of Crash Data
• Direct comparison of crash rates
• These rates are determined on the basis of exposure data
• Accident rate generally fall into two broad categories
• Population-based rates
• Area population
• Number of registered vehicles
• Number of licensed driver
• Highway mileage
• Exposure-based rates
• Vehicle-miles traveled
• Vehicle-hours traveled
Analysis of Crash Data
• Direct comparison of crash rates
• Commonly used rates are
• rate per million of entering vehicles (RMEVs) and
• rate per million vehicle-miles (RMVM).

𝑐𝑟𝑎𝑠ℎ𝑒𝑠/𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝑅𝑀𝐸𝑉 = ∗ 106 [for intersection]
𝐴𝑝𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑎𝑐ℎ 𝐴𝐷𝑇∗𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠/𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟

𝑐𝑟𝑎𝑠ℎ𝑒𝑠/𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝑅𝑀𝑉𝑀 = 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠 ∗ 106 [for intersection]
𝐴𝑝𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑎𝑐ℎ 𝐴𝐷𝑇∗ ∗𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟

Where, ADT = Average Daily Traffic Volume

Analysis of Crash Data
• Direct comparison of crash rates
• Commonly used rates are
• rate per million of entering vehicles (RMEVs) and
• rate per million vehicle-miles (RMVM)

𝑐𝑟𝑎𝑠ℎ𝑒𝑠/𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝑅𝑀𝐸𝑉 = ∗ 106 [for roadway section]
𝐴𝐷𝑇∗𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠/𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟

𝑐𝑟𝑎𝑠ℎ𝑒𝑠/𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝑅𝑀𝑉𝑀 = ∗ 106
𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠
𝐴𝐷𝑇 ∗ ∗ 𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
[𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑟𝑜𝑎𝑑𝑤𝑎𝑦 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛]

Where, ADT = Average Daily Traffic Volume

Analysis of Crash Data
Example 1: Several intersections in Orlando had an apparent
increase in collisions last year. One such intersection – Research
park and Alafaya – may need some special attention. It had 13
crashes. The four leg of the intersection had two-way ADT values
of 9671, 2893, 9506 and 2611 vehicles per day last year.
Calculate the intersection’s crash rate, so that it may be compared
with the rate for other similar intersections.
Analysis of Crash Data
Example 2: A new state highway safety programs offers funds to
improve local roads with RMVM values greater than 1.00. A 6.1
mile section of University Blvd. in Orange county had six crashes
last year. The two way ADT was 755 vehicles per day. Does the
road qualify for the state Program?
Analysis of Crash Data
• Direct comparison of crash rates
• Disadvantages of crash rate approach
• Although the use of crash rates considers the effect of an
exposure, it does not take into consideration other factors, usually
referred to as confounding factors, that may affect the occurrence
of crashes.
• Research has also shown that it tends to be biased toward low
volume sites.
• Care should therefore be taken in making conclusions by simply
comparing crash rates.
References
 https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/hsip/
 https://www.massdot.state.ma.us/Portals/8/docs/designGuide/CH_6_a.pdf
 Fundamentals of Transportation Engineering: A Multimodal Systems
Approach. By Jon D. Fricker and Robert K. Whitford. Pearson
International Edition.
 Traffic Engineering. By Roger P. Roess, Elena S. Prassas and William R.
McShane. Fourth Edition.
 Traffic & Highway Engineering. By Nicholas J. Garber and Lester A. Hoel.
Fourth Edition.