MANAGEMENT SCIENCE ASSIGNMENT

SUBMITTED TO- DR. CHINMOY JANA

SUBMITTED BY- SWAPNADIP MAZUMDAR
MBA (DAY)
SECTION- B
ROLL NO. – 89
DATE- 3RD MAY, 2018
SIMULATION TECHNIQUE USING MONTE-
KARLO METHOD

INTRODUCTION-
Monte Carlo methods (or Monte Carlo experiments) are a broad class
of computational algorithm that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain
numerical results. Their essential idea is using randomness to solve problems that
might be deterministic in principle. They are often used
in physical and mathematical problems and are most useful when it is difficult or
impossible to use other approaches. Monte Carlo methods are mainly used in
three distinct problem classes: optimization, numerical integration, and
generating draws from a probability distribution.

OBJECTIVE-
The process’ main objective is to optimize the problem, integrate the numerical
problems and to distribute according to the probability.

DATA-
A manufactures around 200 bikes. Depending upon the availability of new
materials and other conditions, the daily productions has been varying from 196
bikes to 204 bikes, whose probability distribution is given below-
PRODUCTION/PER DAY PROBABILITY
196 .05
197 .09
198 .12
199 .14
200 .20
201 .15
202 .11
203 .08
204 .06

The finished bikes are transported in a specially designed lorry, which can carry
200 motorcycles. Using 20 random numbers simulate the production content.
The random numbers are 82, 89, 78, 24, 53, 61, 18, 45, 04, 23, 50, 77, 27, 54, 10,
55, 67, 78, 48, 29
CALCULATION-
Step 1:
TABULATION OF THE CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY-
PRODUCTION/DA PROBABILITY CUMULATIVE RANDOM
Y PROBABILITY NUMBER
196 .05 .05 00-04
197 .09 .14 05-13
198 .12 .26 14-25
199 .14 .40 26-39
200 .20 .60 40-59
201 .15 .75 60-74
202 .11 .86 75-85
203 .08 .94 86-93
204 .06 1.00 94-99

Step 2:
TABULATION OF SIMULATION-
SERIAL NO. RANDOM PRODUCTION/DAY WAITING EMPTY
NO. SPACE
1 82 202 2 -
2 89 203 3 -
3 78 202 2 -
4 24 198 - 2
5 53 200 - -
6 61 201 1 -
7 18 198 - 2
8 45 200 - -
9 04 196 - 4
10 23 198 - 2
11 50 200 - -
12 77 202 2 -
13 27 199 - 1
14 54 200 - -
15 10 197 - 3
16 55 200 - -
17 67 201 1 -
18 78 202 2 -
19 48 200 - -
20 29 199 - 1

CONCLUSION-
By the simulation process we can easily find out the average no. of bikes waiting I
the factory average of the number of empty space in the lorry.