Accepted Manuscript

Statistical Modeling and Optimization of the Combustion Efficiency in Cement Kiln

Precalciner

S. Fellaou, A. Harnoune, M.A. Seghra, T. Bounahmidi

PII: S0360-5442(18)30804-1

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.04.181

Reference: EGY 12820

To appear in: Energy

Received Date: 28 November 2017

Revised Date: 28 February 2018

Accepted Date: 28 April 2018

Please cite this article as: S. Fellaou, A. Harnoune, M.A. Seghra, T. Bounahmidi, Statistical
Modeling and Optimization of the Combustion Efficiency in Cement Kiln Precalciner, Energy
(2018), doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.04.181

This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to
our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo
copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form.
Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the
content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

1 STATISTICAL MODELING AND OPTIMIZATION OF THE COMBUSTION EFFICIENCY IN

2 CEMENT KILN PRECALCINER
3 S. FELLAOU1,*, A.HARNOUNE1, M.A. SEGHRA1, T. BOUNAHMIDI1,2,
4 1: Laboratory for Analysis and Synthesis of Industrial Processes (LASPI), University Mohammed V, Mohammadia School of
5 Engineers, Rabat, Morocco
6 2: Euromed University of Fes, Fez, Morocco

7 Abstract

8 Cement industry is highly energy and emissions intensive. Thermal energy is majorly used in the kiln and calciner
9 systems, accounting for over 90% of total energy use in cement plant, and virtually all of the fuel use. Therefore, the
10 precalciner is one of the key equipment in cement manufacturing process impacting the energy efficiency of the
11 pyroprocessing unit. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the potential of statistical modeling to support the
12 optimization of precalciners. According to the current knowledge of the authors, this is the first investigation using
13 statistical models to optimize combustion system operating conditions by analyzing historical and experimental
14 design data. Multiple linear regressions were obtained for each of the two approaches with statistically comparable
15 variances. It should be noted that the optimum obtained with the experimental design is better because the
16 corresponding model describes a larger range of operating variables. On the basis of the experiment-based model,
17 60% of the total unburned organic carbon could be reduced
18
19 Keywords: Modeling; Experimental design; Historical data; Optimisation; Combustion; Precalciner.

Nomenclature

Tat tertiary air temperature (°C) 𝑐𝑜𝑘𝑒 Petroleum coke

Draw raw mass flow rate (t/h) 𝑖 row
DCoke Petroleum coke mass flow rate (t/h) 𝑗 column
V2,1 fan speed (tr/min) 𝑟𝑎𝑤 raw material
Dap primary air flow rate (Nm3/h)
Dat tertiary air flow rate (Nm3/h) Abbreviation
Rat register (%)
𝑇𝑂𝐶 total organic carbon
FSwirl Swirl flow (t/h) 𝑀𝐴𝐸 mean absolute error
V Variance 𝐷𝑂𝐹 degree of freedom
𝐶𝑉 coefficient of variation
Indices 𝑅𝑆𝑃 reinforced suspension preheater
𝐶𝐹𝐷 computational fluid dynamics
𝑎𝑝 primary air
𝐹 Fisher distribution
𝑎𝑡 tertiary air

20 1. Introduction
21 The cement manufacturing process is one of the most energy consuming processes. To produce a tonne of
22 cement, a well-equipped cement plant consumes about 4GJ distributed between the electrical energy drawn mainly
23 from the grinding and thermal energy consumed in the baking line [1]. The thermal efficiency of modern plants
24 remains below 54% [17-18-19]; an equivalent amount of the polluting gases is emitted. The cement industry was
25 receiving special attention because of its intensive use of energy and its impact on the environment. The first main
26 source of irreversibility whether the cement components is detected in the precalciner system from chemical
27 reactions that occur during the calcination process (see Fig.1) [2]. The complexity of the phenomena involved in this
28 phase makes it difficult mastering and monitoring the precalciner operating parameters which affects cement quality,

1
 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

29 fuel consumption and pollutant emissions. The development of efficient tools and advanced industrial technologies
30 with the improved performance of higher efficiency and lower pollutant emissions is the major goal of combustion
31 researchers and manufacturers.

32 Fig. 1. Irreversibility for each unit within the baking line in the cement plant [2]

33 Increasing the efficiency of combustion in the precalciner was the object of numerous simulations and
34 modeling: Iliuta et al. [3] investigated the influence of operating conditions on the level of calcination and made a
35 sensitivity analysis of their model with respect to combustion/calcination parameters. Ranade et al. [1], Hu et al. [5]
36 and Lu et al. [7] based on their parametric sensitivities on the combustion system, the key parameters that affect fuel
37 conversion are temperature, residence time, turbulence and fuel particle size [4]. Fidaros et al. [6] presented a
38 numerical model for the prediction of the velocity, temperature and concentration fields of gases. The results of their
39 parametric study allow estimations to be made and conclusions to be drawn that help in the optimization of a given
40 calciner. Mikulčić et al. [8] analyzed the impact of an axial and a swirl burner on the mixing of the particles,
41 pollutant emissions and the operating conditions of a newly designed cement calciner. This study shows that from
42 the results obtained, researchers may gain an in-depth understanding of all relevant thermo-chemical reactions
43 occurring in a cement calciner. Benhelal et al. [9] have set up a new baking process by isolating decomposition
44 reactions (decarbonation) from other reactions (coke combustion), thus producing pure CO2. According to this
45 method, the heat required for combustion is provided by a hot stream of CO2 instead of combustion. This new
46 process allows a significant reduction of 66% in CO2 emissions and an energy conservation of 2.3%. In the work of
47 Huttunen and Kjäldman [10] they employed the commercial CFD code Fluent ® to calculate the flow in the kiln
48 riser duct. The simulations made possible a comparison of flow trajectories and residence time of various particles,
49 providing guidelines on what particles to use in the ring of alternative fuels in the kiln riser duct. All of these studies
50 show that there is still a need for further research of cement calciner’s operating conditions.
51 A scarce number of attempts in literature to model parameters affecting combustion efficiency from a statistical
52 perspective. In consequence, nearly none statistical model has been proposed to the precalciner system. The aim of
53 this work is to present the use of the high performance and predictive strength of statistical modeling to
54 enhance combustion in the precalciner unit by reducing the rate of the unburned. Particular objective for this was
55 also to carry out an in-depth study on statistical modeling of the combustion system based on the analysis of data
56 history of the system variables and the other based on an experimental design. The precalciner was chosen because it
57 allows testing several factors including fuel composition, excess air, fuel distribution and factors that determines
58 burner geometry. Understanding the influence of these factors on combustion efficiency is considerably important
59 for energy consumption improvement. Moreover, by optimizing cement calciner’s operating conditions, a reduction

2
 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

60 of pollutant emissions can be achieved, resulting with a more efficient and ecologically compatible cement
61 production. The data required for this study was provided by an actual cement plant in Morocco. The activities of the
62 plant are the production and sale of an extensive range of cements for the construction industry. An annual designed
63 production capacity of the plant is close to 3 million tons. The plant studied operates on a dry process kiln with
64 multi-stage suspension preheating and precalcination.
65 The structure of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 gives a brief description of the cement process in
66 general and the precalciner in particular. The statistical methodology applied to the precalciner unit is given in
67 Section 3. Section 4 contains the results and the discussion of the findings, while Section 5 concludes.

68 2. System description
69 The production of cement includes three main stages: (i) preparation of raw material, (ii) production of cement
70 clinker and (iii) the grinding of cement. The diagram in Fig. 2 shows the usual process for the dry manufacture of
71 Portland cement, the most commonly used [11]. The manufacturing process involves the decomposition of calcium
72 carbonate (CaCO3) at about 900 °C into calcium oxide (CaO, lime) (calcination), followed by the process of forming
73 clinker in a rotary kiln at 1450 ° C. The clinker is then milled with gypsum and other additives to produce the cement
74 [13]. The precalciner cement kiln system, shown schematically in the Fig. 2, is located at the heart of the cement
75 manufacturing process; it consists of a preheater in the form of a cascade of cyclone separators, a precalciner, a
76 rotary kiln and a clinker cooler. The composition of the raw material and Petroleum coke used in the studied
77 installation is given in Table. 1 and Table. 2 respectively.
78 The precalciner used by the plant is of the RSP type; it has a vortex nature and is characterized by: i) the
79 presence of the "Swirl chamber" which ensures integrated combustion in the reactor; ii) the unfolding of a
80 decarbonation part in the mixing chamber; and iii) the transport of combustion air through external pipes. The
81 various inputs and outputs of the system are shown in Fig. 3.

Solids
Gas
Air
Fuel
Preheater

Precalciner

Rotary Kiln Cooler

82
83 Fig.2. Principle drawing of a rotary cement kiln with preheater, precalciner and clinker cooler

84 Table 1
85 Composition of the raw material
Composition Fraction (%)
SiO2 12.53
Al2O3 3.17

3
 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

Fe2O3 2.32
CaO 40.64
MgO 0.54
CO2 34.12
Dust 5.00
Minor Components 1.67

86 Table 2
87 Composition of petroleum coke
Composition Fraction (%)
Carbon 90.50
Sulfur 6.00
ashes 0.45
Volatile compounds 3.05

88 The raw material already crushed in the raw grinding department is fed to the top of the preheater and descends
89 through cyclonic separation in the opposite direction to hot gases rising from the kiln, the meal is dried and the clay
90 minerals dehydrate and decompose. Also, any organic compounds present in the raw meal are oxidized, and
91 magnesium carbonate is calcined. In general, the thermal decomposition of limestone into lime and carbon dioxide
92 can be presented by the following equation [3]:

93 𝐶𝑎𝐶𝑂3 (𝑠)→𝐶𝑎𝑂 (𝑠) + 𝐶𝑂2 (𝑔) + 178 𝑘𝐽/𝑚𝑜𝑙 (1)

94 In this preheating process, the meal temperature is typically increased to about 700 °C [14]. The precalciner unit,
95 illustrated in the schematic Fig. 3, is located just before the kiln inlet housing in the process. However, the
96 precalcined meal is then fed to the kiln whereafter the clinker formation reactions take place.
97 The clinker itself is a mixture of at least four distinct compounds, called alite, belite, aluminate and ferrite (see
98 Table 3) discharged from the kiln and cooled in the cooler.

99
100 Fig.3. Schematic representation of the RSP precalciner [16]

4
 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

101
102 Table 3
103 Major phases in cement clinker
Phase Formula Abbreviation
Alite 3CaO.SiO2 C3S
Belite 2CaO.SiO2 C2S
Aluminate 3CaO.Al2O3 C3A
Ferrite 4CaO.Al2O3.Fe2O3 C4AF

104 3. Material and Methods

105 3.1. Statistical analysis of historical data
106 3.1.1. Selection of structural parameters
107 In order to optimize the operating point of the combustion system in the precalciner unit, historical data was
108 gathered and presented in (Appendix A). Each row of this table consists of daily averages of the values of the
109 monitored parameters found on the worksheets for a given operating days corresponding to the period between
110 27/01/2016 and 07/04/2017. The amount of air to be introduced into the swirl calciner can be remotely controlled by
111 varying the opening of Stockbridge damper or SB damper. The database points were chosen so as to obtain a
112 significant variation of the characteristic variables of the process. The coefficient of variation, CV, of each of these
113 variables is reported in Table 4 in section 4.1.
114 The combustion conditions in the precalciner are essential to achieve a high conversion of solid fuels. McKay
115 [4] defined them by the "3Ts": a fairly high temperature (at about 1200 ° C.), a sufficient residence time and a
116 significant turbulence. The factors influencing the efficiency of combustion in the precalciner are presented using the
117 Ishikawa diagram (see Fig. 4) and discussed in the following.

118 i) Flow turbulence and temperature

119 The distribution of the combustion air in the RSP precalciner is as follows:
120 First, the tertiary air from the cooler is divided into three parts: The air swirl, directed towards the top of the
121 precalciner and the remainder is directed to two tangential inlets of the combustion chamber. By acting on this
122 distribution, the turbulence as well as the stay time will be subject to optimization. Second, the primary air flow and
123 the flow of the Swirl influence the shape and temperature of the flame: this means that an excess of primary air can
124 lower the temperature of the flame. Additionally, if we increase the swirl air flow, the flame is long and thin; its core
125 temperature will decrease accordingly. The temperature in the precalciner combustion chamber is ensured by the
126 flame and the tertiary air. The temperature of the tertiary air depends on the efficiency of the cooler. Therefore, to
127 maintain a relatively high temperature (at about 1200 ° C.), control of the primary air flow is important. During the
128 combustion, if the temperature is not sufficiently high, fuel will take some time to ignite thus increasing the time of
129 the combustion.

130 ii) Combustion residence time

131
132 When a fuel is being burned, it is important that sufficient time is available so that the fuel burns completely.
133 100% combustion means that the fuel is fully oxidized and full oxidation of the carbon, hydrogen and other
134 combustible elements has taken place. If fuel remains in the combustion zone for a time lesser than necessary, it will
135 be partially burned which increases the un-burnt losses. A residence time of 10 to 15 seconds is recommended [23].
136 This criterion can be verified by two parameters: turbulence and reactor design. A long duct, for example, allows an
137 additional residence time of the order of 4s [4]. Ideally, the fuel should stay for a time sufficient for the complete
138 combustion and then replaced by the fresh fuel. Thus, the time plays a very important role in determining the
139 combustion efficiency.
140
141 iii) Farine flow

5
 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

142 An increase in the flour flow causes a reduction of the energy consumption of the line [15]. As solids flow rate
143 increases, the percent fill at precalciner entrance increases. It can be seen that the net energy consumption per unit
144 weight of product decreases as solids flow rate increases. This is because the net energy loss from the kiln does not
145 increase proportional to the solids mass flow rate [15]. On the other hand, if the air / solid ratio at the inlet of the
146 furnace is low, the kinetics of combustion and calcination will be limited by the transport phenomena, which leads to
147 a low conversion of the fuel.

148 iv) Type of Fuel

149 The used fuel is petroleum coke, its composition in ash and volatile matter is rather low: 0.42% ash and 8.47%
150 in volatile compounds. The fineness of the pulverized coke strongly influences the kinetics of the heterogeneous
151 oxidation of the tank and the speed of devolatilization. The finer the coke particle, the greater the surface area of the
152 reaction. The efficiency of ignition and combustion can increase if the fineness of the pulverized coke is reduced
153 [20]. On the other hand, Syred has studied the impact of the size of the coke particle on the efficiency of combustion
154 in the cement precalciner [21], highlighting the fragmentation phenomenon. The larger the size of the particle, the
155 greater the chance of fragmentation. As a result, the probability of some particle classes not burning increases.
156 Through this fragmentation model, Syred [21] explains the increase in the CO content in the gases at the outlet of the
157 precalciner by increasing the reactive surface area of the tank and reducing the residence time. Moreover, Johansen
158 [22] explains that if the particle size of the coke is large, the conversion rate of the tank is low; this is due to
159 resistance to O2 transfer within the particle. In this study, the coke is sprayed through a burner, with an acceptable
160 fineness: more than 96% is <90𝜇𝑚. This parameter is sufficiently thin so it will not be taken in the present analysis.
161
162 v) TOC

163 TOC is an important quality control parameter during the manufacturing cement, from the raw material until the
164 final product. TOC analyses in the cement laboratory per day. The elemental analysis [11] also made it possible to
165 calculate the quantity of unburned carbon at the exit of the system and it was found equal to 1.03 %.

Operating conditions
Combustion
residence time
Pressure
Temperature

Combustion
Efficiency
TOC Swirl
Fineness Air
distribution
Composition
Geometry

Fuel Turbulence

166 Fig.4. Ishikawa diagram

6
 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

167 The statistical analyses were carried out using Statgraphics ® Plus. Also, a database of the history of the daily
168 operating points of the process studied was constituted and presented in section 4.

169 3.2. Statistical analysis of the experimental design

170 The experimental design is an efficient tool to determine optimum conditions of the combustion in the precalciner
171 unit and an efficient technique for experimentally exploring relationships between investigated factors and system
172 response. In this study, the influence of various factors on combustion efficiency in the precalciner system is
173 investigated using a Box-Wilson Central Composite Design (see Fig.5) to an experimental matrix in order to
174 determine the effect of one by one factor and the most important their interactions. The coordinates of the
175 tetrakis hexahedron heads in an orthogonal normalised basis constitute the elements of the experimental matrix
176 presented in table 7 section 4.1. The principle of the method is to simultaneously vary the levels of one or more
177 factors (which are discrete or continuous variables) at each test. This will make it possible, on the one hand, to
178 greatly reduce the number of experiments to be carried out while increasing the number of factors studied and, on the
179 other hand, to detect the interactions between the factors and the determination of the so-called optimum setting of
180 these factors relative to a response [12].
181 The modeling of the combustion system by an experimental design was carried out in the present paper and
182 allows determining the influence of the variables on the combustion efficiency. Given the operating constraints
183 related to the operation of the baking process, the number of manipulated variables was limited to three: (i) Swirl
184 Registry; (ii) Tertiary air register and (iii) Primary air register. Depending on the operating mode, this is a series of
185 tests carried out on an industrial scale. Indeed, here are the steps taken:
186 • Variables are varied according to a well-defined plan;
187 • For each test, the steady state is expected to be set (about 2 hours);
188 • The TOC of the decarbonated material is analyzed
189

190 Fig. 5. A four level central composite design (Box–Wilson design)

191 3.3. Multiple linear regression

192 Both historical data and experimental design was modeled using the multiple linear regression technique to
193 establish a statistical model that identifies variables whose effect on the dependent variable TOC is significant. The
194 TOC values were correlated to the operating point variables in the historical data analysis as well as the test results
195 with manipulated variables (tertiary, primary, and Swirl airflow) in the experimental design. The development of the
196 regression from the tested terms is carried out using the stepwise regression (direct selection of the terms whose
197 contribution to the model is significant) or the step-down regression (we look for the significant terms after

7
 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

198 excluding those whose contribution to the model is not significant) [24]. We set the rejection threshold at 5% and we
199 retain the minimum variance model after validating Fisher's test.
200
201 4. Results and discussion
202 4.1. Historical data analysis
203 A database of the history of the daily operating points of the process studied was constituted. The database points
204 were chosen so as to obtain a significant variation in the characteristic variables of the process. The coefficient of
205 variation, CV, of each of these variables is reported in Table 4. The range of variation of each variable is M ± 3 σ.
206 Table 4
207 Descriptive statistical analysis
Variables TOC (%) Dcoke (t/h) Draw (t/h) T(°C) Dat (Nm3/h)
Standard deviation 0.2854 0.67273 7.8878 40.2601 4463.84
Average 0.6483 8.4738 194.585 894.96 58127.5
CV 44.02 % 7.94 % 4.05 % 4.50 % 7.88 %
Variables Rat (%) FSwirl (t/h) Dap (Nm3/h) V2(tr/min) V1(tr/min)
Standard deviation 11.8803 14.196 0.12055 26.2135 30.5461
Average 60.8462 21.2308 1.12 776.482 860.758
CV 19.53 % 66.87 % 10.76 % 3.38 % 3.55 %
208
209 We correlate the values of the TOCs with the selected operating point variables using the multiple linear
210 regression technique [24] and performing by statistical processing software Statgraphics ® Plus. This numerical tool
211 allows estimating the parameters and their standard deviations and the variance of each model by using stepwise
212 forward and backward linear regression analysis. The results are regrouped in Table 5.
213
214 Table 5
215 Statistical models of history
Models Variance DOF
1 TOC = 0.0127 dcru – 3.167 10-5 dat 0.05185 11
2 TOC = 5.261 + 0.01105 swirl – 0.00624 v2 0.04855 10
3 TOC = 0.01308 dcru – 4.2 10-8 v2* dat 0.04197 11
TOC = 0.1924 v2 – 0.1676 Tat – 3.64 10-6 v2*dat +2.166 10-5 v2*dcru + 4.661 10-4 v2*swirl
4 0.02199 6
+3.122 10-6 Tat* dat – 3.944 10-4 Tat* swirl
5 TOC = 4.875 10-4 v2*dcru + 1.379 10-6 Tat*dat – 1.649 10-6 v2 *dat – 4.036 10-4 Tat*dcru 0.03797 9
TOC = 3.1475 – 0.01183 coke* swirl + 0.08807 dap* swirl – 8.75 10-4 Tat * dcru – 4.5840
6 0.01996 5
dap + 2.992 10-6 Tat * dat + 0.00104 v2 * dcru – 3.505 10-6 v2* dat
TOC = –2.0638 – 0.008093 dat + 2.50475 dcru + 1.0478 10-5 v2* dat – 0.003226 v2*dcru
7 0.0276 6
+ 0.073795 dap*swirl – 0.009095 coke*swirl
216
217 According to the Fisher test (see Table 6), all models obtained are acceptable and comparable. Since the variances
218 are comparable, we opt for the model which makes it possible to obtain the best optimum. Thus, we retain the
219 following model N°6:
TOC
-4
220 = 3.1475 ‒ 0.01183 𝑐𝑜𝑘𝑒 * 𝑠𝑤𝑖𝑟𝑙 + 0.08807 𝑑𝑎𝑝 * 𝑠𝑤𝑖𝑟𝑙 - 8.75 10 𝑇𝑎𝑡 * 𝑑𝑐𝑟𝑢 - 4.5840 𝑑𝑎𝑝 + 2.992 1
-6 -6
0 𝑇𝑎𝑡 * 𝑑𝑎𝑡 + 0.00104 𝑣2 * 𝑑𝑐𝑟𝑢 - 3.505 10 𝑣2 * 𝑑𝑎𝑡
221

222 This model predicts the TOC values with a standard deviation of 0.11. Fig. 6. compares the observed values to the
223 values calculated using this regression. The MAE is 5.7%.

8
 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

224 Table 6
𝑉𝑖
225 Fisher test from history’s models (if 𝑉𝑗 is lesser than or equal to 𝐹(𝐷𝑂𝐹𝑖,𝐷𝑂𝐹𝑗) 𝑉𝑖 and 𝑉𝑗 are comparable)
𝑉𝑖
(i) 𝑉𝑗
1 1 𝐹(𝐷𝑂𝐹𝑖,𝐷𝑂𝐹𝑗)
(j)

1.067826
2
1
2.9514

1.235292 1.156829
3 1
2.79356 2.8912

2.357737 2.207978 1.908647

4 1
4.0356 4.060 4.0356

1.365559 1.278821 0.579182 0.579182

5 1
3.1108 3.137 3.1108 3.374

2.597846 2.432836 2.103021 1.101839 1.902405

6 1
4.7118 4.735 4.7118 4.950 4.772

1.878528 1.759207 1.520715 0.79675 1.375648 0.72311

7 1
4.0356 4.060 4.0356 4.284 4.099 4.387
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
226

227
228 Fig. 6. TOC historical data

229 4.2. Analysis of experimental design’s data

230 The modeling of the combustion system through experimental design analysis allowing us to determine the
231 influence of the variables on the combustion efficiency. Considering the operating constraints related to the operation

9
 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

232 of the baking process, we limit the number of variables manipulated to three: Swirl register, tertiary air register and
233 primary air register.
234 We have adopted the Box-Wilson central composite design: 2k ± 2k/4 +1 with k the number of variables involved.
235 According to this plan, each variable will have four levels in addition to the central point, k= 3, so the number of
236 tests is equal to 15. In order to keep the process running appropriately stable, the thresholds of the variables are taken
237 as M ± 3σ, with M the mean of the variable drawn from the data history. The experimental variables and the levels at
238 which they were tested are shown in Table 7 and the results of the tests are shown in Table 8.
239
240 Table 7
241 Tested levels of experimental factors
Level R.Swirl (%) R.AT (%) Q.AP (Nm3/s)
2 3/4 10 35 1
-1 17 43 1.1
0 30 55 1.25
1 43 65 1.4
2 3/4 50 75 1.5
242
243 From the results shown in Table 8, the test N°2 provides a minimum percentage TOC: 0.37%. The search for the
244 optimum requires the development of the statistical model that reliably describes the experimental plan adopted (see
245 Fig.7.).

246 Table 8
247 Results of tests: Experimental matrix
Number of tests R.Swirl (%) R.AT (%) Q.AP (Nm3/s) COT Total (%)
1 43 65 1.40 0.43
2 17 65 1.40 0.37
3 43 43 1.40 0.46
4 17 43 1.40 0.52
5 43 65 1.10 0.45
6 17 65 1.10 0.52
7 43 43 1.10 0.41
8 17 43 1.10 0.45
9 30 55 1.25 0.58
10 53 55 1.25 0.71
11 30 75 1.25 0.49
12 30 55 1.50 0.55
13 10 55 1.25 0.48
14 30 35 1.25 0.68
15 30 55 1.00 0.63
248
249 We model the experimental design by correlating the results of the tests (TOC values) with the variables
250 manipulated (tertiary air flow, primary and Swirl) using the technique of multiple linear regression. The results are
251 regrouped in Table 9.

252 Table 9
253 Statistical models of the experimental design
Models Variance DOF
First All variables TOC = 0.3065 dap + 0.00068 dat + 0.0029 swirl 0.0938 12
order Stepwise TOC= 0.4058 dap 0.0923 14

10
 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

model Step-down TOC = 0.4058 dap 0.0923 14

All variables TOC = 0.6238 dap + 0.0167 dat – 0.0155 swirl – 0.0180 dap* dat + 0.0700 9
0.0087 dap* swirl + 0.00011 dat*swirl
Stepwise TOC = 0.4058 dap 0.0923 14
Second Step-down TOC = 0.5169 dap+0.0118 dat – 0.0114 dat* dap 0.0741 12
order All variables TOC = 0.5749 dap + 0.018 dat – 0.0151 swirl – 0.0157dap2 – 2.766 0.0697 6
model 10-5 dat2 – 1.969 10-5 swirl2 – 0.0167dap*dat + 0.0092 dap*swirl
+0.00011 dat*swirl
Stepwise TOC = 0.927 dap – 0.4070 dap2 0.0802 13
Step-down TOC = 0.5169 dap + 0.0118 dat – 0.0114 dat*dap 0.0741 12
254
255 According to the Fisher test (see Table 10), all models are acceptable and comparable. After comparing the optimal
256 responses of all models, we retain the following model, which provides the best optimum:
257 𝐶𝑂𝑇 = 0.5169 𝑑𝑎𝑝 + 0.0118 𝑑𝑎𝑡 ‒ 0.0114 𝑑𝑎𝑡 ∗ 𝑑𝑎𝑝

258 This model predicts the TOC values with a standard deviation of 0.0985.
259 Table 10
260 Fisher test from experimental design’s models
𝑉𝑖
(i) 𝑉𝑗
1 1 𝐹(𝐷𝑂𝐹𝑖,𝐷𝑂𝐹𝑗)
(j)

0.967742
2
1
2.575

0.967742 1
3 1
2.575 2.519

0.748387 0.773333 0.773333

4 1
3.085 3.032 3.032

0.967742 1 1 1.293103
5 1
2.575 2.519 2.519 2.674

0.625806 0.646667 0.646667 0.836206 0.646667

6 1
2.75 2.695 2.695 2.847 2.695

1.122581 1.16 1.16 1.5 1.16 1.793814

7 1
3.962 3.962 3.962 4.099 3.962 3.962

0.658065 0.68 0.68 0.879310 0.68 1.051546 0.586207

8 1
2.662 2.607 2.607 2.761 2.607 2.662 2.761

0.625806 0.646667 0.646667 0.836206 0.646667 1 0.557471 0.95098

9 1
2.75 2.695 2.695 2.847 2.695 2.75 2.847 2.723

11
 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
261

262
263 Fig. 7. TOC experimental plan
264
265 4.3. Comparison of the models
266 Statistical models were obtained for each of the two approaches with statistically comparable variances. All these
267 models have been exploited for the optimization of the operating point. The optimum corresponding to the minimum
268 value of TOC among all the models used for each of the two approaches constituted the criterion for the choice of the
269 model chosen for the optimization. The comparison of the two calculated results (Table 11) shows that the optimum
270 obtained with the experimental plan is better because the corresponding model describes a larger range of operating
271 variables.

272 Table 11
273 Comparison of the results of two models
Tat Dcru V2 Dap Dat Swirl TOC
Variable
(°C) (t/h) (tr/min) (Nm3/s) (Nm3/h) (%) (%)
Historical data model 894 170.0 747.62 1.12 50257.73 30,00 0,62
Experimental design model 894 180.0 776.48 1.035 59211.00 30.00 0.535
274
275 Based on the results, we can draw the following conclusions

276  The optimal values calculated by the two models are different with a difference of 16%. The optimum obtained
277 by experimental design data is better because the ranges of variation of its operating variables are wider.
278  For the same reason, the responses of the two models (Table 12) show discrepancies of about 30% illustrating the
279 fact that extrapolation of statistical models is risky.
280  Statistical modeling has allowed us to reduce TOC by up to 60% using the experiment-based model
281  Historical data – based model also allows important improvement of the TOC value without performing any
282 industrial tests.
283
284 Table 12
285 Confrontation between the two statistical models
TOC TOC relative TOC TOC relative
Test Experimental Historical difference Test Experimental Historical difference
design data (%) design data (%)

12
 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

1 0.43 0.73 41.0 9 0.58 0.74 21.7

2 0.37 0.73 49.2 10 0.71 0.74 4.2
3 0.46 0.72 36.4 11 0.49 0.69 29.2
4 0.52 0.72 28.1 12 0.55 0.74 25.8
5 0.45 0.73 38.2 13 0.48 0.74 35.2
6 0.52 0.73 28.6 14 0.68 0.69 1.8
7 0.41 0.72 43.3 15 0.63 0.74 15.0
8 0.45 0.72 37.8
Average of the relative difference 29%
286
287 5. Conclusions
288 In this study, two statistical modeling approaches were employed. One based on the analysis of the data history
289 and the other on the development of an experimental design realized on a typical cement precalciner system.
290 Multiple linear regression analysis was performed using Statgraphics ® Plus commercial software to analyze
291 historical and experimental design collected data. The TOC values were correlated to the operating point variables
292 in the historical data analysis as well as the test results with manipulated variables (tertiary, primary, and Swirl
293 airflow) in the experimental design. The optimum obtained by experimental design allowed reducing TOCs by up to
294 60%. Even if the value of the optimum obtained with the model based on the data of the history is 16% higher than
295 that of the optimum obtained with the model based on the experimental design, the former is simpler to obtain
296 because it does not require specific industrial tests that can cause disruption of production. Moreover, the results
297 obtained from this study can be used for improving the understanding of the optimization of cement calciner’s
298 operating conditions.

13
299 Appendix A. Data history of the baking line

TOC Combustion coke Dcru Tat Dat Rat swirl Dap

Yield V1 V2 CO ppm
(%) ratio (t/h) (t/h) (°C) (Nm3/h) (%) (%) (Nm3/s)
27/1/2016 0.93 0 80.22 8.2 195.00 827.00 58146.12 70.00 33 1.1 870 770 380
27/1/2016 0.443 0 89.69 8.1 190.00 850.00 58146.12 75.00 33 1.15 870 770 420
02/2/2016 0.98 16.32 78.42 7.35 200.00 908.00 61044.00 70.00 20 1.23 865 765 550
02/2/2016 0.85 9.4 92 8.5 195.00 891.00 59650.00 65.00 35 1.22 865 765 565
02/2/2016 1.14 8.6 93.84 9.3 195.00 883.00 45250.00 70.00 35 1.05 865 765 600
02/2/2016 0.95 8.7 93.48 9.1 205.00 904.00 58200.00 70.00 20 1.14 865 765 570
31/8/2016 0.33 0 92.87 8 195.00 860.00 59234.46 60.00 35 1.26 762 862 200
14/4/2017 0.552 34.7 89.93 7.45 195.68 967.88 54323.00 63.00 10 1.13 860.07 772.41 200
14/4/2017 0.681 0 86.01 8.8 199.00 967.88 56421.00 30.00 25 1.03 860 760 960
13/6/2017 0.388 23.6 91.99 8 202.39 887.90 61630.00 64.00 0 1.25 866.39 771.48 900
29/6/2017 0.374 0 93.07 9.18 178.16 909.17 62512.00 64.00 0 1.21 879.79 775.01 1018
29/6/2017 0.398 0 92.66 9 180.00 900.00 60000.00 63.00 0 1.18 879.79 775.01 995
04/7/2017 0.413 0 91.69 9.18 199.38 878.65 61100.53 64.73 30 1.14 881.82 778.35 250
300

14
 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

301 Acknowledgements

302 The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of engineers of the selected cement factory for providing the
303 necessary facilities support to undertake the above work.

304 References
305 [1] V.V. Ranade, Computational flow modeling for chemical reactor engineering, Academic press, 2002, London.
306 [2] S. Fellaou and T. Bounahmidi, analyzing thermodynamic improvement potential of a selected cement
307 manufacturing process : Exergy analysis (submitted).
308 [3]I. Iliuta, K. Dam-Johansen, A. Jensen, L.S. Jensen, Modelling of in-linelow- NOx calciners — a parametric study,
309 Chemical Engineering Science 57 (2002) 789–903.
310 [4] K. K. H. Choy, D.C.K. Ko, W. H. Cheung, J.S.C. Fung, D.C.W. Hui, J.F. Porter, G. Mckay, Municipal solid
311 waste utilization for integrated cement processing with waste minimization, Process Safety and
312 Environmental Protection, Volume 82, Issue 3, 2004, p. 200-207
313 [5] Z. Hu, J. Lu, L. Huang, S. Wang, Numerical simulation study on gas-solid two phaseflow in pre-calciner,
314 Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, Volume 11, Issue 3, 2006, p. 440-451
315 [6] D.K. Fidaros, C.A. Baxevanou, C.D. Dritselis, N.S. Vlachos, Numerical modelling of flow and transport
316 processes in a calciner for cement production, Powder Technology 171 (2007) 81–95
317 [7] H. Lu, E. Ip, J. Scott, P. Foster, M. Vickers, L. Baxter, Effects of particle shape and size on devolatilization of
318 biomass particle Fuel, 89 (2010), pp. 1156–1168
319 [8] H. Mikulčić, M. Vujanović, D.K. Fidaros., P. Priesching , I. Minić , R.Tatschl , N. Duić , G. Stefanović, 2012a,
320 The application of CFD modelling to support the reduction of CO2 emissions in cement industry, Energy,
321 doi:10.1016/j.energy.2012.04.030
322 [9] E. Benhelal, G. Zahedi, H. Hashim, A novel design for green and economical cement manufacturing, Journal of
323 Cleaner Production, Volume 22, 2012, p. 60-66.
324 [10] H. Mikulčić, M. Vujanović, D. K. Fidaros, P. Priesching, I. Minić, R. Tatschl, N. Duić, and G. Stefanović, “The
325 application of CFD modelling to support the reduction of CO2 emissions in cement industry,” Energy, vol.
326 45, no. 1, pp. 464–473, Sep. 2012.
327 [11] S.Fellaou, T.Bounahmidi, Evaluation of energy efficiency opportunities of a typical Moroccan cement plant:
328 Part I. Energy analysis, Applied Thermal Engineering (2017), doi: 10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2017.01.010
329 [12] A. Jambrak, Experimental Design and Optimization of Ultrasound Treatment of Food Products, Food
330 Processing & Technology, Food Process Technol 2011, 2:3 http://dx.doi.org/10.4172/2157-7110.1000102e
331 [13] Z. Sogut, Z. Oktay, A. Hepbasli, Energetic and exergetic assessment of a trass mill process in a cement plant,
332 Energy Conversion and Management 50 (2009) 2316–2323
333 [14] L.A. Tokheim, The impact of staged combustion on the operation of a precalciner cement kiln, Thesis, 1999.
334 [15] K. S. Mujumdar, K.V. Ganesh, S.B. Kulkarni, V.V. Ranade, Rotary Cement Kiln Simulator (RoCKS):
335 Integrated modeling of pre-heater, calciner, kiln and clinker cooler, Chemical Engineering Science 62, 2007,
336 p. 81-95
337 [16] S.N. Ghosh, Book, Advances in Cement Technology: Chemistry, Manufacture and Testing, Second edition 298
338 2002. India. ISBN: 81-88305-04-9.
339 [17] S. Khurana, R. Banerjee, U. Gaitonde. Energy balance and cogeneration for a cement plant, Applied Thermal
340 Engineering, Volume 22, Issue 5, April 2002, Pages 485-494
341 [18] A.Kolip, Energy and exergy analyses of a serial flow four cyclone Stages precalciner type cement plant, 2010,
342 Scientific Research and Essays Vol. 5(18), pp. 2702-2712, ISSN 1992-2248
343 [19] J. Kline, C. Kline. Assessing Cement Plant Thermal Performance. DOI 10.1109/TIA.2017.2649458, IEEE.
344 Transactions on Industry Applications.
345 [20] S. Ha, Y. Li, H. Zhang, H.-Y. Shi, C. Zhu (2010) Study on a separation technology for more efficient utilization
346 of pulverized coals in cement plants, Fuel Processing Technology 91, p. 1261-1266
347

15
 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

348 [21] N. Syred, K. Kurniawan, T. Griffiths, T. Gralton, R. Ray (2007) Development of fragmentation models for
349 solid fuel combustion and gasification as subroutines for inclusion in CFD codes, Fuel 86, p. 2221-2231
350 [22] I. Iliuta, K. Dam-Johansen, A. Jensen, L.S. Jensen, (2002) Modeling of In-line low NOx calciners - a parametric
351 study, Chemical Engineering Science 57, p.789-803
352 [23] J. M. Commandre (2002), Thesis. Formation des oxydes d'azote lors de la combustion de cokes de pétrole dans
353 des conditions de précalcinateur de cimenterie, Thèse de doctorat, Institut National Polytechnique de
354 Toulouse, France
355 [24] J. Tanase, Dobre and Jojé, G. Sanchez Markano ; chemical engineering modelling, simulation and similitude,
356 wailey-vch, 2007

16
 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

Highlights

 A statistical modeling using historical data analysis of the combustion system was developed
 A statistical modeling using experimental design of the same combustion system was analysed
 A comparison between the two approaches was done
 60% of TOC have been reduced using the experiment-based model