Quantitative Business Analysis: Statistics & Probability

ISDS 361A-18, Schedule #12257

Spring 2014

Syllabus
Instructor: DR. DANIEL R. CAVAGNARO

Class time: Tuesday, Thursday: 2:30pm– 3:45pm

Classroom: LH 317

Instructor’s Office: SGMH 4184

Department Office: SGMH 4113

Office Hours: Tuesday, Thursday: 1:45pm – 2:15pm, 3:45pm – 5:15pm

and by appointment

Phones: (657) 278-3878 (INSTRUCTOR’S OFFICE)

(657) 278-2221 (DEPARTMENT OFFICE)

Email: dcavagnaro@fullerton.edu

Required Textbook:
Statistics for Management and Economics (Ninth Edition), by Gerald Keller

Recommended Textbook:
The Business Writer’s Handbook (Tenth Edition) by G.J. Alred, C.T.
Brusaw, and W.E. Oliu

Software:
Microsoft Excel (available in school computer labs) will be used extensively
in this course. Instructions for using Excel appear in each chapter of your
textbook as appropriate.
OVERVIEW: In this course, you will learn how statistical methods are used to support the
decision-making process. After taking this course you should be able to
choose and apply appropriate statistical tools, know how to properly obtain
reliable data, and be able to apply statistical reasoning to interpret and report
their results in the context of business problem-solving and decision making.

GRADING: Three midterms and a final exam will be given. The midterms and the final
will be worth 100 points each. You can earn up to an additional 50 points
through class participation and weekly homework assignments. Your final
grade will be computed using the grading scale below.

A B C D F
90% 80% 70% 60% <60%
403 358 313 268 <268

This should make it relatively easy for you to see how you’re doing and to
figure out what your final grade would be. For instance, if you have 320
points going into the final you know the lowest grade you can get is a C and
that you would need an 83 on the final to get an A.

HOMEWORK: Homework will be assigned weekly on Tuesdays (except after exams) and
will be due at the beginning of class on the following Tuesday (except where
specified otherwise). Homework may be done individually or in groups, but
to receive credit you must turn in your own homework at the time it is due.
NO LATE HOMEWORK WILL BE ACCEPTED.

EXAM DATES: EXAM 1 ................ FEBRUARY 13, 2014 (THURSDAY)

EXAM 2 ................ MARCH 13, 2014 (THURSDAY)
EXAM 3 ................ APRIL 17, 2014 (THURSDAY)
FINAL EXAM ...... MAY 15, 2014 (THURSDAY)

Exams are closed book, but you may bring a handwritten, 8.5x11 page of
notes (both sides if you wish). You may use Microsoft Excel to assist with
calculations. No make-up exam will be given, except in the case of
documented illness or emergency. The format of the make-up will be
determined by the professor, but all make-up exams must be completed no
later than three business days after the missed exam.
Assessment Statement –
The programs offered in Mihaylo College of Business and Economics (MCBE) at Cal State
Fullerton are designed provide every student with the knowledge and skills essential for a
successful career in business. Since assessment plays a vital role in Mihaylo College’s drive to
offer the best, several assessment tools are implemented to constantly evaluate our program as
well as our students’ progress. Students, faculty, and staff should expect to participate in MCBE
assessment activities. In doing so, Mihaylo College is able to measure its strengths and
weaknesses, and continue to cultivate a climate of excellence in its students and programs.

Academic Integrity Statement –

Students are expected to maintain a high standard of academic integrity. Policies on academic
integrity will be strictly enforced. Familiarize yourself with the academic dishonesty policy,
which can be found in the current student handbook or on the web at
http://www.fullerton.edu/senate/PDF/300/UPS300-021.pdf

Disabled Student Services–

If you have a disability or special need for which you are or may be requesting an
accommodation, please inform me and contact the Disabled Student Services Office, located in
University Hall 101, as early as possible in the term. For more information, the Disabled Student
Services Office can be reached by calling (657) 278-3117 or visit their website at
www.fullerton.edu/disabledservices/. Confidentiality will be protected.

Tutoring –
There is a free tutoring service for ISDS 361A. Please check the following link for information:
http://business.fullerton.edu/StudentServices/Tutoring/

Emergency Policies –
All students should be aware of what needs to be done in the case of an emergency, such as an
earthquake, a fire, or other disasters, natural or otherwise. Be sure to look at the CSUF
Emergency Preparedness website at http://prepare.fullerton.edu for critical information about
your safety.
Tentative class schedule*
Week Dates Reading Topics Notes

Course Introduction
1 January 21, 23 1 --
What is Statistics?

Graphical depiction of nominal data

2 January 28, 30 2, 3 Homework 1 due
Graphical depiction of interval data

3 February 4, 6 4 Describing data numerically Homework 2 due

Review of chapters 1-4

4 February 11, 13 Homework 3 due
Midterm Exam 1

Principles of Probability
5 February 18. 20 6
Introduction to Random Variables

6 February 25, 27 7 Bivariate and binomial distributions Homework 4 due

Continuous distributions
7 March 4, 6 8 Homework 5 due
Normal Distribution and z-scores

Review of chapters 6-8

8 March 11, 13 Homework 6 due
Midterm Exam 2

9 March 18, 20 9 Sampling Distributions

10 March 25, 27 10 Confidence Intervals Homework 7 due

11 April 1, 3 Spring recess, no classes --

Hypothesis Testing
12 April 8, 10 11 Homework 8 due
z-test

Review of chapters 9-12

13 April 15, 17 Homework 9 due
Midterm Exam 3

t-test
14 April 22, 24 12, 15 --
chi-squared test

15 April 29, May 1 16 Simple Linear Regression Homework 10 due

Multiple Linear Regression

16 May 6, 8 17 Homework 11 due
Review of Chapters 12, 15-17

17 May 15 Final Exam ***2:30PM – 4:20PM***

*subject to change without notice

Specific Learning Outcomes for ISDS 361A

1. Be able to distinguish between samples and populations

2. Understand the various levels of measurement (nominal, ordinal, etc.)
3. Be able to calculate and interpret the descriptive measures: mean, median, mode, range, standard
deviation for both samples and populations.
4. Be able to construct and interpret histograms and pie charts.
5. Be able to correctly apply the basic rules & concepts of probability (mutually exclusive events,
independent events, conditional probability, addition law, complementary events, tree diagrams, Venn
diagrams) to solve simple problems.
6. Understand the distinction between discrete and continuous measurements and random variables.
7. Be able to find probabilities of events defined in terms of a discrete random variable (e.g., P(X6), etc.)
8. Be able to calculate and interpret the mean and standard deviation of a discrete random variable.
9. Understand how and when the “Empirical Rule” (aka “1,2,3 sigma rule”) applies to random variables.
10. Calculate probabilities for a binomial random variable (by formula and by Excel)
11. Be able to find probabilities associated with the standard normal distribution.
12. Be able to formulate and solve probability problems involving normal distributions.
13. Understand the concept of a “sampling distribution”.
14. Know how and when to apply the Central Limit Theorem for probability calculations involving the
sample mean and the sample proportion.
15. Understand the concept of confidence intervals.
16. Be able to calculate confidence intervals for the population mean and know the appropriate distribution
(z or t) to apply and the conditions necessary for choosing between these distributions.
17. Be able to determine the minimum necessary sample size for estimating the population mean or the
population proportion.
18. Be able to correctly formulate a hypothesis test (i.e., to correctly choose the forms of null and alternative
hypotheses).
19. Be able to conduct a hypothesis test involving either a population mean or proportion and to interpret the
conclusion of the test.
20. Know how the p-value of a hypothesis test is calculated and interpreted.
21. Understand and interpret the two errors (Type I & II) associated with a hypothesis test.
22. Be able to calculate the estimated coefficients for a simple linear regression model.
23. Be able to conduct and interpret hypothesis tests about a simple linear regression model.
24. Be able to calculate confidence and prediction intervals in a simple linear regression analysis.
25. Be able to read and interpret computer (Excel) printouts from a simple linear regression analysis.
26. Be able to formulate a multiple regression model and interpret computer (Excel) printouts regarding the
model.
27. Know how to construct and interpret a contingency table.
28. Be able to formulate and conduct hypothesis tests for one-way and two-way contingency tables using
the chi-square tests.