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استخدام التحليل التمييزي للتنبؤ بالفشل المالي لعينة من المؤسسات الصغيرة والمتوسطة بولاية أم البواقي خلال الفترة 2014-2016 PDF
استخدام التحليل التمييزي للتنبؤ بالفشل المالي لعينة من المؤسسات الصغيرة والمتوسطة بولاية أم البواقي خلال الفترة 2014-2016 PDF
20162014
2018/12/09 : 2018/09/08 :
30
201620141713
Abstract
This study aims to determine the scientific method that
allows us to an early detection of risks that may be faced by
small and medium entreprises(SME).
We will try in this study using the statistical method which
is based on the factor analysis discriminatory on a sample of 30
SME’s of oum bouaghi, 13 failed SME’s and 17 sound SME’s
during the period 2014-2016.
808
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lakehal.asma@gmail.com :
2016-2014
The study concluded that two of the nine ratios have he ability to
distinguish between the failed SME’s and sound SME’s, represented by
the total assets turnover ratio and current assets turnover ratio.
Key words: Discriminat analysis, prediction, financial failure, financial
ratios, small and medium enterprises(SME).
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809
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-
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-
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46
30
2002 2000
20062005
7
1966 " financial ratios as predictors of failure " Beaver
79
810
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3019641954 79
financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the brediction Altman
1968 of corporate bank ruptcy
11 22
22
Z- score
%83
811
2018321
2016-2014
2
250 12
1
1 1 2
1 1 1 2
2
2 1 1 2
3
3 1 1 2
4 1 1 2
2 1 2
4
3-1-2
5
2.2
6
7
812
2018321
2016-2014
(Beaver)
8
9
10
11
12 3.2
1936
13
813
2018321
2016-2014
1514
3
1 3
30 1 1 3
30
13ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ17
2016
1
18 01
19 02
SOCHARPE 20 03
EL 21 04
KHALIL
ALGOﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ 22 NAKAA 05
AMOUNEﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ 23 RENDA 06
ARGHISﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ 24 LOCIF 07
DIB 25 SAIM 08
814
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2016-2014
MANARﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ 26 FABCOM 09
TRAVAUX 27 MAISOM DU 10
PIBLIC HAMAC MARBRE D’OR
CAFE EL 28 PROLIPOSﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ 11
HOUKOUL
ATTIA ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ 29 SARAMAﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ 12
TECHNOLOGIE
I.V.Bﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ 30 SIDI RGHISﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ 13
ILITIFACﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ 14
EXPLOITATION DU ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ 15
SABLE HADJAB
DAR EL HOUDAﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ 16
HABI LAITﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ 17
13 17
2
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
R6
–
816
2018321
2016-2014
R7
R8
R9
819
2018321
2016-2014
3
Log Determinants
0 2 -1,207
1 2 1,214
Pooledwithin-groups
2 ,612
.SPSSv20
Rank
Test Results
Box's M 12,186
F Approx. 3,739
df1 3
df2 85663,475
Sig. ,011
BOX’s M4
.SPSSv20
820
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2016-2014
F Fisher BOX’s M
H1 %5
H00011
t
SPSS
821
2018321
2016-2014
5
Variables Entered/Removeda,b,c,d
Wilks' Lambda
Entered
Step
Statistic
Exact F
df1 df2 df3
Statistic df1 df2 Sig.
At each step, the variable that minimizes the overallWilks' Lambda isentered.
.SPSSv20
R4R3
F
Wilk’s Lambda
18
822
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2016-2014
0.002 F exact
0.061 R4 R3 0.05
0.1
6
R3
R4
SPSS
.SPSSv20
0.541
0.413
823
2018321
2016-2014
100%
90
100
1
2-4-2-3
0.708
9.333
0.009
0.05
8
Wilks' Lambda
Test of Wilks' Lambda Chi-square Df Sig.
Function(s)
1 ,708 9,333 2 ,009
.SPSSv20
5 2 3
9
1.096=b1
0.042 =b2
R3=X1
R4=X2
10
0.710
0.543
2
0.083520.5430.710
1 7 2 3
12
Classification Function Coefficients
Y
1 0
R3 ,137 1,510
R4 ,317 ,370
(Constant) -,902 -2,251
Fisher'slinear discriminant functions
.SPSSv20
826
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2016-2014
Z=-2.251+1.510R3+0.370R4
Z=-0.902+0.137R3+0.317R4
R3
R4
R3 أﻛﺒﺮR4
30 2-7-2-3
17و 13
%92.3 12
%64.711
1
6 %7.7
%35.3
%76.6723
Classification Resultsa,c
Y Predicted Group Total
Membership
0 1
Original Count
0 12 1 13
1 6 11 17
% 0 92,3 7,7 100,0
1 35,3 64,7 100,0
Cross- Count 0 11 2 13
validatedb 1 7 10 17
% 0 84,6 15,4 100,0
1 41,2 58,8 100,0
a. 76,7% of original grouped cases correctlyclassified.
b. Cross validation isdoneonly for those cases in the analysis. In cross
validation, each case isclassified by the functionsderivedfrom all cases
otherthanthat case.
c. 70,0% of cross-validatedgrouped cases correctlyclassified.
.SPSSv20
827
2018321
2016-2014
8-2-3
ROC
ROC ROC 1-8-2-3
%50 ﺑـ
ROC1
SPSS
ROC
% 50
828
2018321
2016-2014
ROC14
Area Under the Curve
LowerBound UpperBoun
d
The test result variable(s): Y has at least one tiebetween the positive actual
state group and the negativeactual state group. Statisticsmaybebiased.
079 ROC
0.05
05 ﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ ROC
2-8-2-3
2016
2016 R3.R4
829
2018321
2016-2014
11
13 13 17
%100
20162015
2016201515
30 18 12 2015
30 19 11 2016
141312
4
SPSS
0.708 0.009Wilk’s Lambda
.(R3.R4
005 0.79 ROC
2016
%76.67
830
2018321
2016-2014
831
2018321
2016-2014
1
3220032825
2Chabha bouzar, les PME/PMI en Algérie : contraintes, soutien étatique
et impact sur l’emploie « proposition de communication, la transition en
question : l’économique et le politique entre convergence et dissonance »,
Tunisie, 6, 7juin 2014, pp 6, 7.
3
26 25
122008
4
26 25
.112008
5
720071816
6
10032
12ص2010
772008 17
8
20122009
40ص2015
9
29
sherrord 10
14ص201411536
11
220092827195520
832
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2016-2014
12
Mireille Bardos, analyse discriminante : application au risque et
scoring financier, dunod, paris, 2001.
13
42ص2008
14 -Mireille Bardos, op cit, p2.
15
12ص
833
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