BACK THE

FAVOURITE
SECOND HALF STRATEGY

SYNDICATE STRATEGY VAULT

DISCLAIMER
The contents of this document are for information and education purposes only.
I am simply providing information on the strategies that I use to trade the Betfair
Football markets which should be used to broaden the readers trading horizons
and should in no way be seen as investment advice.

The reader accepts that trading of any type carries a high level of risk and that a
trader can lose all their money. All trading and investment decisions are that of
the reader.

STRATEGY OVERVIEW
It can often take the favourite a half just to get into the game. This strategy takes
advantage of the increased odds that you will get if a favourite is not winning by
the time the second half starts.

It is a little risky as we are taking a position on who is going to win the game as
oppose to just profiting through the number of or lack of goals.

This strategy is great if you are able to develop a view on who will win the game.
Typically deployed in the second half and where possible within the last 10-20
minutes you will achieve a fantastic reward to risk ratio allowing you, to make
money even if you are wrong more than half of the time.

The good news is that if you follow my match selection criteria you will not only
have a positive reward to risk ratio, but you will also have a win rate that far
exceeds 50%.

Your strike rate will depend largely on your pre-match reading skills in addition to
your ability to decipher the in-play statistics.

This strategy is almost set and forget.

PRE-MATCH SELECTION
Let's take a look at the match selection criteria. From a pre-match perspective we want to see
that there is a significant difference in the league position between the teams that are playing,
both in terms of points and position.

Sometimes you can find teams that look like they are 6 or 7 places apart from a league
position perspective but a closer look at the points reveals that actually there is only 3 or 4
points between them.

Obviously the exact points difference will depend on where the teams are in their season, at
the beginning 6 points can be a big difference but mid-way through a season 6 points is not a
great deal. This is where experience will play a part but essentially when looking at this
information you are trying to find a fairly strong team playing a fairly weak team. You want
there to be an obvious favourite in the game.

There are occasions when a team may start a season badly, then after a new signing or new
manager start to turn things around. That is why league position alone it not enough to make
your trading decisions, and why you must also look at other related data like form.

A team's form can really help your pre-match selection. You want the stronger team to have
had at least 4 wins in their last 6 games and ideally the weaker team will have an inconsistent
record. Where possible refer to the home team's home form and the away team's away form.
Another important indicator is how have the teams performed against other similar teams.
That is how has the stronger team performed against a weaker team in a similar league
position to their current opponents and vice-versa.

Sometimes for example you will find that a weaker team is in their current position because
of their results against teams in a similar or lower position to them, but they somehow get
results against stronger teams.

By the same token you can find stronger teams that struggle to get results against weaker
teams. This is why it is important to understand both team's form against opponents in a
similar league position, because sometimes games that look fairly obvious from a league
position's perspective can tell a very different story when you dig into the detail.

I have seen many traders get caught out with this little detail.
IN-PLAY STATISTICS

The reality is that this is the part that can really make or break your trade. You can have the
most convincing pre-match statistics in the world, but if the in-play stats tell you something to
the contrary then you can still lose money. That is why it is so important that we have both
the pre-match and in-play statistics aligned in order for us to initiate a trade.

The issue with reading in play statistics is that context is so important. As much as I wish I
could give you hard and fast numbers to look out for, the markets will not allow me to do so.

For example I could have a game that up until the beginning of the second half had zero shots
on or off goal, zero corners and only a handful of attacks. If at the beginning of the second I
saw that the stronger team had 2 shots on target and 3 corners, I might then be compelled to
initiate the trade, as I would be able to see a clear difference in the play.

However I could have a game that was extremely lively in the first half with five shots on
target, three shots off target and six corners. If at the beginning of the second I saw that the
stronger team had 2 shots on target and 3 corners, although I might be tempted to get
involved based on the price and the pre-match criteria, you would have to argue that the
second half had begun as the first half had ended.

The significance of the first scenario vs the second one is that in the first scenario I would be
able to see a clear change in the play, which is positive, whereas the second scenario
although positive would be more difficult to detect. Essentially what I am trying to say here is
that yes you need to look at stats like shots on goal, shots off goal, corners and dangerous
attacks to make your decisions, but you also have to look at that information within the
context of the whole game.

Typically I will look at the entire game's statistics and then look at the last 15 minute's
statistics and then make a decision based on whether the last 15 minutes equals or exceeds
the entire game stats.
Typically 3+ plus shots on goal in a 15 minute period is a pretty good indicator that the game
is lively and deserves to be considered.

It is also nice to see the weaker team also creating chances. A game where both teams are
looking for a goal is more open and more likely to result in a goal being scored, hopefully from
the stronger team.

TRADE EXECUTION

This trade is taken in the second half of games and is only entered once the in-play statistics
indicate that the stronger team are creating chance. A lot of the time this will be within the
first 5-10 minutes of a game, but on occasion will be a little later, towards the 70th or even
80th minute mark.

The later in the game you initiate the trade, the better your reward to risk ratio, so it often pays
to be patient and not dive right into a trade just because the pre-match statistics tell you there
will be an obvious winner.

The price that we are willing to accept for this trade, depends on the time of entry. If you are
entering around the half time mark, a price of 1.80 or above is acceptable. However if you are
entering later in the game (after the 65th-70th minute), you will want a price of above 2.5 or
perhaps even closer to 3 to make up for the additional risk you are taking on by virtue of the
fact there is less time for the goal to be scored.

For trade entry you have two options; first you can put 100% of your stake on all at once, and
second you can choose to split your stake into smaller increments and build into your
position. For example you might put 50% on at first, followed by 30% as the price rises and
then another 20% as the price rises even more.
The benefit here is if a late goal is scored, your return will be significantly more than if you put
100% on from the outset. However if an early goal is scored then you will make a smaller
return due to the fact that you didn't have your entire stake on. This is a decision that you
need to make, although I can tell you that I personally prefer to split my stake up.

When a goal is scored you have 3 options; close the whole position and take profits, partial
cash out taking the liability off of the table, leave your whole position on for full profits.

There are many factors affecting this decision including the time the goal is scored and how
dominant the stronger team is or has been. Typically in the beginning I would recommend
closing the whole trade and then when you build experience experiment with other exit
techniques.

If the weaker team takes the lead you close the trade for a loss and move onto the next one.

If neither team takes the lead, we hold the position until the final whistle and take a loss.