TRADE ON TENNIS MANUAL

Welcome to the Trade on Tennis Trading manual.

Along with the Daily Trading Notes, this manual and the resources in the members area should equip you with all you
need to take on the tennis markets.
The hardest thing to learn in trading is Patience and discipline. We see a lot of new traders who are eager to get started
and in their rush they start entering trades when really they would be better sitting back and waiting for better
opportunities.
If you are relatively new to tennis trading, we would recommend that you go through this manual and that you master
ONE trading technique at a time.
Ideally the first trade you should be looking to master is the Set One (The Removal of 40% Liability) and once you have
mastered this then go onto the next Strategy. The double break in set one.
You should set your stall out so that you are ONLY getting involved in these trades. The major reason we encourage you
initially just to get involved in the First Set is because this is where the least damage can be done. If the trade goes against
you then you know exactly how much you are going to lose, and providing you follow the rules you should make a good
profit long term.
DAILY TRADING NOTES
First let’s take a look at the daily trading notes and what each column represents
In the first column we have the names of the 2 participating players.
In the second and third columns we highlight each players projected service hold & break expressed as a percentage. It
should be noted that this is MATCH UP SPECIFIC and takes into account both players holding and breaking stats on today’s
surface.
Where you see a players number highlighted in BLUE this means they are either a strong server or a strong returner meas-
ured against the average for that surface.
Should a players number be highlighted in RED then this suggests they are either a weak server or a weak returner meas-
ured against the average for that surface.
The 4th column gives the implied probability (odds) expressed as a percentage. This takes into account the past 3 years
data with more of an emphasis based on recent form. This then goes through the Trade on Tennis model
The 5th Column gives the estimated End of Set (E.O.S) price should that player win the First set based on Pinnacles opening
price. This is very useful, as for example if a player goes 4-1 up in the first set there are many times that they trade below
the estimated EOS price. This means should you oppose this player then you are entering the trade with very low risk
should that player then go onto win the first set.
The 6th column gives the ATP/WTA ranking for that player on all courts and the 7 th column gives the ATP/WTA ranking for
that player on that particular surface.
The 8th Column gives Pinnacles opening price.
The 9th Column gives my price based on the percentage highlighted in column 4. If this figure is highlighted in RED it means
this player offers no real value and you can Lay from the start. If this figure is highlighted in BLUE it means that this player
offers some good value and you should consider backing from the start.
The final column gives the Trade on tennis surface rating for that player. This is based on 12 months stats and essentially
the higher the number the better that player performs on the this particular surface
Now crucially here we are looking to oppose those players with a weak serve so any player in RED is an ideal candidate to
take on when the situation presents itself. If you are trading just by the notes then this is the strongest indicator.
Below the spreadsheet Matt then highlights those games where he see there are potential opportunities. He maps out
various scenarios that highlight the best time to enter and this gives the user the best opportunity to profit.

SOFTWARE
Ideally you should be trading from the API and we would recommend using Bet Angel. Obviously there is other software
such as Geeks Toy or Gruss. However in our opinion Bet Angel is by far the best to trade tennis.
We would also recommend that whichever software you use, you get used to using it by using the practise mode. You
have to be fairly quick to implement some of the strategies highlighted in this manual and this is by far the best way to do
it.
Successful trading involves learning numerous new skills and learning to use trading software can save you an awful lot, as
well as making you an awful lot of money.

IN PLAY TRADING ROOM

We are very lucky in that we have a very active chat room and indeed we have some very good traders. If you are new to
tennis or trading please do not be afraid of asking questions in the room.
It is our goal to build a very strong trading community and eventually we want to be in a position where we have a
number of people sourcing the best entry and exit points.
Matt is in the room most days and if you have any questions, again please ask and draw on his experience.
It should be noted that occasionally Matt may advise a trade that may at first look to go against the Daily Notes. There will
be a reason for this and Matt will explain why.

Bankroll Management, Entry and Exit Points & Staking Advice

Here we set down or process regarding bankroll & staking management.
Number one is protecting your trading bank and this is an absolute, no ifs or buts, you should never do anything that puts
it or a large chunk of it at risk via over staking.
So with this golden rule in mind, I only ever risk 10%-12% of my total bank on any individual trade. There are instances
where I may use up to 15% of my bank and that occurs when I average down my lay price and this usually happens when
I’ve made a mess of my initial entry and have taken a bad price and am in need of a lower scratch figure. As when you
have to average down you should not be thinking of profit, but damage limitation and in this scenario a scratch should be
regarded as a win. Of course you can stay in the trade if it starts going your way, but you must remember that you’re
putting more capital at risk. So I’d advise you to take out the extra you have put in as soon as you can.
We now have a guideline regarding initial stake but we have to break that down further as the match progresses as its
financial suicide to be risking 10%-15% of your total bank when the match reaches the most volatile situations. Which are
tie-break, towards the end of the 2nd set and the whole of the 3rd set.

Set One
I very rarely open a position pre-match, unless my model shows me 30-40 ticks value. In this situation I’m looking to lay a
heavy favourite who is underpriced with half stake (so up to 6% of total bank) as it reduces our risk.
If we back a player whose value at say 2.90 and they get broken, and their opponent holds, we’re looking at a price around
4.60 and then you will be in a very uncomfortable place. If we lay the favourite in this scenario then we’d only lose around
20 ticks and we can average down using the other half stake.
Once the match has started I’m looking to lay as close to set price as I can (the price I’ve estimated the player to be if they
win the 1st set) as once again I’m looking at reducing risk. If we achieve this then we can let the trade run until the end of
the set, and we have a minimal downside and very much a controlled red if our player does not get back into the match in
the 1st set.
Other scenarios I look for in in Set 1, is laying the break when I’ve estimated the players to have a low projected service
hold. In this scenario I only get involved with full stake in the early parts of the set, and never after game 8 in the ATP or
game 11 in the WTA. If I enter in any of these scenarios (after game 8 or 11) then I halve my stake.
I also like to oppose a weak server (low projected hold) when leading by a double break in the 1st set. So we’re looking for
a 4-1 score line, as the price is going to be close to set price we can stake our FULL amount in this scenario. I then remove
40% of liability after a break back has occurred and then clear my full liability when my player holds. I then look to hedge
my position if the double break is recovered.
The last scenario I look for in the opening set is when the scores are level and I want to take on a weak server for an
individual service game. In this case I’m looking for a price under or at a maximum of 2.50 and for this trade I’ll use 50% of
my regular stake. In this instance I’ll remove 50% at 0-30 or 15-40 and a full clear of liability if we get to 0-40, then win or
lose I’ll do a full hedge at the end of the service game.
Set Two
In the 2nd set we reduce our stakes to between 35% & 50% of our initial full stake, so if we use £100 as our maximum
liability then we need to reduce this to between £35 to £50 as the match can be won or lost in this set and we don’t want
our pants pulled down having a large liability in and being on the wrong side of it so by staking less in this scenario we can
still control our losses and keep them to a manageable level.
The first trade we look at here is obviously laying the set 1 winner and I like to have certain criteria met before I consider
this trade as a viable proposition; What I’m looking for is the set loser to have shown something on return in Set 1, no
break points or break then no lay, we also need to be sure our player is capable of fighting back so a quick check of the
stats is required to see if they have come back from a set down and how many times they have done this over the past 12
months. Once you’re satisfied that the player has met the criteria then I lay with 35% of full stake or if the player has
broken the set 1 winner more than once in the opening set then I lay with 50%. I start to clear my liability by removing
40% at 0-30 or 15-40 then another 40% when a break up and finally clearing my full liability after a hold.
Laying at set & break is another option I use in the 2nd set especially if the player I’m laying has a poor projected service
hold % and poor stats when in a leading position so is statistically likely to give up the advantage, this can be a very fruitful
position to take as we get to lay at a low price of at least under 1.20 on a regular basis. For this trade I use up to 50% of my
full stake and once again look to take some out as above when I can.
A set 2 tie-break can be another very decent position to take and what I look for is a weak server who’s price is 1.35 or
shorter prior to the tie-break starting, I’ll then lay if they lead by 3 points so we are again looking at a really low lay price
around 1.15 and below, I then start to clear my liability when my player gets to within 1 point, part hedge when the scores
are level and fully hedge if my player takes the set. For this trade I reduce risk even more as the match can end and we can
lose our full liability quite quickly so I use 20% of my normal stake.
Set Three
This is by far the most volatile part of the match and you can see some huge swings happen game by game and even point
by point so we need to keep our liability here really low and in this set I only ever use 20% of my normal stake.
The trade I use the most in the final set is to lay the leader who has poor front running stats, as these players have a
tendency to get tight and choke when the finish line is in sight. Ideally I’m looking for a price under 1.25 but will consider
slightly higher if the player I’m opposing has a low projected hold (weak serve) and a track record of choking.
Once again I look to remove 40% of liability at 0-30 or 15-40 then clearing full liability when the break back has occurred, I
then normally hedge when my player has held or is struggling to hold. I do this because you can lose all your green quite
quickly in a 3rd set if the player you opposed comes back with another break.
Controlling Your Losses
We don’t win every time we enter the market, far from it and anyone who tells you they do is far from realistic. However
what we can do as a trader is manage our losses and never let them run away from us. This requires discipline on your
part, every single successful trader you’ll ever meet has discipline because without it you are meat & drink to the market
and it WILL feast on you sooner rather than later.
So what do we do when a trade goes against us, when we have layed the break, and our player is still struggling on serve?
There is no method to cover all bases in this scenario, and it very much depends on game state and other variables. In the
ATP I NEVER let a double break go against me. So I’ll look to get out if my player has been broken and is having a poor
service game. You have to take this on the chin and red up before the double break happens.
I leave all red on the player I have layed and manage it from there.
In the WTA, I remove half of my stake by backing the player I have layed, as this reduces your liability and keeps you in the
trade, as the women recover from double breaks more often than the men do.
When our player is receiving we stay in the trade as we’ll only lose a lot of ticks if our player is broken when serving. If our
player shows nothing on return though for more than two or three games look at getting out as soon as possible.
If I’ve layed the break and the break back doesn’t occur but the set was tight then I’ll red up equally at the end of the set
and look to get back involved later in the match.
When we get involved by laying in the later stages of a match i.e. the 2nd & 3rd sets we have to be aware that the price
can move very quickly. So we need to make sure we enter the market in the right place and keep tight stops or your red
could get a little eye watering and it will take a big swing to get you out of trouble.
Now because we initially lay low (somewhere in the 1.20’s) in these sets I like to get out between around 1.10 to 1.05 and
look to get involved again at a lower price if the match dictates a swing may still be forthcoming.
If we’ve layed at a higher than ideal price in one of these sets then we need to be removing half of our stake before we’ve
lost 15 ticks, As we need to keep the reds small and easy to recover but also keep ourselves in the trade. Once again this
gives you scope to average down the lay price if you feel a choke from real low odds is on its way.
In the 2nd & 3rd sets if my initial lay is under 1.09 I will let it run to the death and use a stake I’m not worried about losing.
When I back a player ideally I like to do it at high odds with small change. However in some cases when my model shows
outstanding value, a back is warranted at around 1.80 and upwards. In these scenarios I never, ever look to lose more
than 20% of my stake.
If you allow it to run any more than that then you really face an uphill struggle to get it back. However if you keep it tight
you can always back at a higher price later on, or wait for a nice low lay later in the match.
Also you should always remember to stake correctly when backing and never ever use a huge amount as once the price
goes over evens it can start to run away very quickly.
KEEP A TRADING DIARY
Before we get onto the strategies. If you want to take your trading seriously then we would advise that you keep a simple
trading diary.
All you need to do is record the following
The date.
The price you entered the trade
Why you entered the trade
The price you exited and the outcome.
All you are doing here is confirming that you are trading correctly. By committing your trades to paper you are able to
instantly asses where you are going wrong. This will certainly reduce the number of mistakes going forward and is a habit
that is well worth forming

TRADING MANUAL STRATEGIES

SET ONE STATEGIES
STRATEGY ONE - THE REMOVAL OF 40% LIABILITY
This is a great strategy and the optimum staking system. Below are a few strategies that outline the power of this strategy.
Essentially by removing 40% of your liability you are extending your safety net and furthering the probabilities of you
executing a profitable trade, where the risk is low and the reward is high.
In this scenario we have the following
SET ONE
Player A is priced at around 1.80 and Player B is priced around 2.20
In this scenario Player A breaks serve goes 2-1 up and moves into 1.43
Here we Lay Player A whilst serving at 1.43 for £100, leaving a liability of -£43
Player B has been broken and his price has moved out to 3.33 and after laying player A is sitting with a profit of +£100
So after this play we have the following (Player A (1.43) -£43 / Payer B (3.33) +£100)

In the next game Player A servers and Player B gets to either 0-30 or 15-40
In this case Player B goes from around 3.33 to 2.68
HERE YOU REMOVE 40% OF YOUR LIABILITY
In the above case your liability is -£43 on Player A which equals £17.20
So in this case you LAY Player B for £17.20 at 2.68 which equals -£28.90 and when you take this off the profit of £100 you
are then left with a profit of +£71.10
Player A when 0-30 or 15-40 goes from 1.43 to 1.60 and on removing £17.20 liability is now (-£43 +£17.20) = -£25.80
So after this play we have the following (Player A (1.60) -£25.80 / Player B (3.33) +£71.10)

After this trade we then move onto the following scenarios

SCENARIO ONE – SET ONE LOSING SCENARIO

If after Laying Player A and the next game does not reach 0-30 or 15-40, then the worst case scenario is that Payer A will
go 3-0 up.
Here Player A would be priced around 1.36 and Player B would be priced at around 3.64
Here you stay in the trade whilst Player B serves
If this happens DO NOT let a double break go against you. ALWAYS HEDGE OUT FOR A LOSS
An example of when you would hedge for a loss is if the game reaches 0-30, 15-40, or break point at 30-40 or 40-A.
In the above example you would be looking at a loss of around -£6.70 or a 10 tick loss.
When using the above strategy always keep in mind the following. NEVER LET RED GO OUT OF HAND & STICK TO A 10/15
TICK LOSS.

SCENARIO TWO
Player A holds and serve and goes 3-1 up. However during the previous game went 0-30 or 15-40
However because we have removed 40% we can at worse scratch our trade
In this scenario
Player A would be priced around 1.39 and -£25.80
Player B would be priced around 3.55 and +71.10
After Greening up Player A would be +£2.08 and Player B £0.00

SCENARIO THREE
Player B breaks serve to level the match 2-2
Player A now moves out to around 1.80 and has a liability of -£25.80. After the break you remove a further 40% of the
liability which in this case is £10.32
So we then Lay Player B at around 2.25 with the £10.32 which would equate to £71.10 - £12.90 = +£58.20
So after this play we have the following (Player A (1.80) -£15.48 / Player B (2.25) +£58.20)

IF Player B Holds to go 3-2 up

Player A now moves out to around 1.91 and has a liability of -£15.48. You remove all of this liability leaving Player A on
£0.00
So we then Lay Player B at around 2.10 with the £15.48 which would equate to £58.20 - £17.02 = +£41.18
So after this play we have the following (Player A (1.91) £0.00/ Player B (2.10) +£41.18)
Now the above is an extremely low risk strategy where the risk v reward is very good. Providing you are disciplined you
are only risking around £6 or 10 ticks for every £100 you have in the market.
This is certainly the best strategy we would recommend trading and indeed for newcomers we would recommend that
you begin with this before moving onto anything else
However as always make sure that you are referring to the notes and are taking on the player that does not offer value.
Always go with the value as shown on the sheets.

STRATEGY TWO – THE DOUBLE BREAK IN SET ONE

In this example we are looking to take on the player who when looking at the notes is a weak server AFTER they have
gone a double break up in the First Set.
At the start of the match Player A was priced at 1.64 and Player B was priced at 2.55
Player A is now leading 4-0 and is ON serve.
The current price of Player A is 1.23. So we LAY them for £100 leaving a liability of -£23
Player B is now priced at 5.26 and is showing a profit of +£100

SCENARIO ONE
Player B breaks back to make it 1-4
Player A then moves out to around 1.28. So we then remove 40% of the -£23 liability

Player B then holds to make it 2-4

Player A then moves out to around 1.34. So we then remove the remainder -£13.80 liability = £5.52.
So we then Lay Player B at around 3.99 with the £5.52 which would equate to £67.53 - £16.50 = +£51.03
So after this play we have the following (Player A (1.34) -£8.28 / Player B (3.99) +£51.03)

Player B then breaks again to make it 3-4

Player A then moves out to around 1.58. So we then remove the remainder -£8.28 liability = £8.28.
So we then Lay Player B at around 2.73 with the £8.28 which would equate to £51.03 - £14.32 = +£36.71
So after this play we have the following (Player A (1.58) £0.00 / Player B (2.73) +£36.71)

SCENARIO TWO
Player A win Set from 4-0
We have Layed Player A at 1.23 and we have the following options.
If the game goes to serve and 5-1 we can scratch our position for a no loss
However if Player A then goes on to win the set we lose 6 to 7 ticks.

Once again we can see that the risk v reward is again very good and certainly worth taking on.

STRATEGY THREE
LAYING SHORT PRICED FAVOURITES PRE MATCH TO BACK IN PLAY
Here we are looking for very short priced favourites, and the first rule is that they should be priced at 1.20 and below.
Then you look to check the players stats on the surface/sheets. If the figures are within 5% of each other, the favourite is
priced too low.
Let’s look at an example
Player A is priced at 1.11
If we lay for £100 our Liability is -£11
Player B is priced at around 9.70 and we have £100 profit showing on this player.
SCENARIO ONE
Should Player A get broken in the first set, then his price will go out to around 1.36. In this case you remove all liability by
backing Player A with £100
This then leaves you with £25 profit on Player A, whilst player B is priced around 3.80 and you have a scratch position on
this player +£0.00
SCENARIO TWO
Should the set go with serve then the before the tie brake Player A’s price will move out to around 1.18. Here you would
hedge for a profit. With the option of greening up or leaving all profit on Player A
SCENARIO THREE
The favourite breaks. If the favourite breaks then his price will contract to around 1.06 leaving you with a Loss of around
£5

STRATEGY FOUR
BACKING THE FAVOURITE WHEN LOSING
Before executing this trade there are FOUR conditions that must be met before the trade is executed

1. We need to make sure that the favourite has a good recovery record

2. We need to make sure that the underdog has a history of choking.

3. Does the underdog have a poor serve?

4. We should also judge a favourites motivation. Are they there to win the match? Or are they there just to
lie on the beach for a few days?
SET TWO TRADING STRATEGIES
STRATEGY ONE
LAYING THE FIRST SET WINNER
Only consider this trade if the player that you are laying does not have a good record of breaking First in the 2 nd set
However ideally the BEST entry in the second set is to open a lay against the player who is both a Set AND a break up
Let’s look at the following scenario
Player A has won the First set and the prices are as follows
Player A 1.22 & Player B 5.57

PLAYER A Breaks and goes 2-0 up

Player A now goes down to around 1.07 and we Lay for £300 leaving us with a liability of -£21
Player B moves out to around 16.30 and we are showing a profit of £300 on this player.
So after this play we have the following (Player A (1.07) -£21 / Payer B (16.30) +£300)

In the next game Player A serves and Player B gets to either 0-30 or 15-40
In this case Player A moves out to around 1.11 and here you would remove 40% of your liability = £8.40.
So we then Lay Player B at around 9.87 with the £8.40 which would equate to £300 - £74.50 = +£225.50
So after this play we have the following (Player A (1.11) -£12.60 / Player B (9.87) +£225.50)

Should Player A hold his serve and go 3-0 up the prices will be as follows Player A 1.05 & Player B 22.84. This would
equate to a loss of around -£4.50

Player B goes onto break and the score is now 2-1

In this case Player A moves out to around 1.19 and here you would remove 40% of your liability = £5.04.
So we then Lay Player B at around 6.28 with the £5.04 which would equate to £225.50 - £26.61 = +£198.89
So after this play we have the following (Player A (1.19) -£8.76 / Player B (6.28) +£198.89)

Player B now holds and the score is now 2-2

In this case Player A moves out to around 1.23 and here you would remove the remainder of your liability = £8.76.
So we then Lay Player B at around 5.43 with the £8.76 which would equate to £198.89 - £38.80 = +£160.09
So after this play we have the following (Player A (1.23) -£0.00/ Player B (5.43) +£160.09)

Once again we can see that the risk v reward is huge and by removing 40% of your liability, you are continually
increasing your safety net.
SET THREE TRADING STRATEGIES
Obviously trading in the 3rd set offers the most risk as the match is nearing its end, so caution is advised, particularly for
the less experienced trader.
LAY THE FIRST BREAK
In the following scenario the match is 1 set all and the players are on serve at 2-2
Player A is priced at 1.78 and Player B is priced at 2.28

PLAYER A Breaks and goes 3-2 up

Player A now goes down to around 1.17 and we Lay for £100 leaving us with a liability of -£17
Player B moves out to around 6.72 and we are showing a profit of £100 on this player.
So after this play we have the following (Player A (1.17) -£17 / Payer B (6.72) +£100)
Scenario One – Player A Holds serve and goes 4-2 up
Here Player A moves to around 1.10 and Player B moves out to around 10.44
Now you have a choice you can either take a loss of -£6.36 after hedging or go to the death.
However we would advise exiting at 1.05 for a maximum loss of -£11.42

Scenario Two – Player B Breaks to make it 3-3

Here Player A moves to around 1.80 and Player B goes to 2.25
Now you hedge for around a £35 profit

TIE BREAK TRADING

SET ONE
Here we are looking to take on players with a low projected hold WTA 55% & ATP 64%
Before getting involved we have the following 2 rules
The player must be leading by 2 or 3 points and priced between 1.50 & 1.99 BEFORE THE TIE BREAK STARTS
Here you remove liability when the scores are level and hedge out win or lose at the end of the set.

SET TWO
Here we are looking to take on players with a low projected hold WTA 55% & ATP 64% AND PRICED BELOW 1.35 prior to
the tie break
We enter at the start of the tie break
Lay at £30 and clear liability when 2 points up.
Part Hedge when 3 points up
Full hedge at the end of the set
You should set your stop loss at 15/20 ticks.
SET THREE
Here we are looking to take on players who are 3 points ahead with a low projected hold WTA 55% & ATP 64% AND THEY
WERE THE UNDERDOG PRE MATCH
Look to lay at under 1.20
Remove liability or fully hedge when scores are level
This trade can go to the death if it does not go our way, so ensure that you stake appropriately.

MISCELLANEOUS STRATEGIES

STRATEGY ONE – LAYING POOR SERVERS WHEN THE MATCH IS ON SERVE

In the WTA look to oppose players with a projected hold of under 50%. Here you should EXIT at the end of every service
game win or lose.
In the ATP look to oppose players with a projected hold of under 64%. Here again you should EXIT at the end of every
service game win lose.

STRATEGY TWO – BACKING THE BIG SERVER WHEN LOSING SERVE

Here we are looking for ATP players with a projected hold of 6% or more above the tour mean.
Then we are looking to back them when they are either 0-30 or 15-40 down.
Here we remove liability when the scores are levelled and then look to hedge at the end of the game.

STRATEGY THREE – BACKING POOR SERVING WOMEN WHEN SERVING FOR THE SET
Here we are looking for players with a projected hold of below 60% and we are looking to hedge out of the position at the
end of the game.
The reason this is such a good trade is that the market will be anticipating the opposite.

STRATEGY FOUR – LAYING POOR SERVERS WHEN SERVING TO STAY IN THE SET
Here we are looking to Lay ATP players with a projected hold of under 70% and WTA players with a projected hold of
under 60%
The Rule here is the set MUST be on serve 4-5 or 5-6 and you hedge out at the end of the game
CREATING A TENNIS TRADING SCRIPT USING THE TRADE ON TENNIS NOTES
Here I’m going to give you a blueprint to create and use a script to trade a tennis match using the data from the daily
notes, and the stats from the resource page. Having a script prepared is extremely useful for a couple of very important
reasons:-
 It gives you all the statistical information in one place before and during the match.

 It makes sure that you don’t make any trades on impulse without any logical behind them.

I’m going to look at a forthcoming match between Lucie Safarova & Eugenie Bouchard from this year’s Rogers Cup in
Montreal.

Rogers Cup - Montreal, Premier, CAN, Hard, 25/07/2016, $2.4M

Court Speed is 61.3% (2.9% Projected Break Implied E.O.S. WTA WTA Pinnacle My TOT
below tour mean) - Hold Opponent probability World Surface Opening Price Surface
Slowish. % Rank Rank Price Rating

Lucie Safarova 70.80% 25.60% 44.27% 1.32 28 67 1.833 2.259 96.5

Eugenie Bouchard 75.70% 35.90% 55.73% 1.34 41 26 2.09 1.794 101.4
WTA Hard Court Mean
64.2%

When I create my script the first job is to look at the projected holds of both players.
Projected holds for this match are:-
Safarova 70.80%
Bouchard 75.7%
As we can see the current WTA Hard Court service hold mean percentage is 64.2% so with both girls holding more than 5%
above this we can assume this will be a serve dominated match with less breaks than your average game, we then take
into account the court speed which comes in below the WTA mean at 61.3% so this will blunt the serve a little and aid the
returner as the courts play a little slow.
It’s also worth looking at and taking into account the break point stats from the resource page to get a picture of who is
clutch or not as the case may be in that situation. From this we can see Safarova is much better at saving break points
than taking them and Bouchard hasn’t a strong trend either way.
I then take a look at the TOT surface ranking which is a numerical overview of the player’s surface stats over a 12 month
period; this gives us a quick snapshot of who has been performing at a higher level recently by posting better numbers.
From this I look at my models generated SP and as we can see Bouchard is a slight favourite on my numbers even though
the market currently has Safarova as slight favourite so we can assume the value lies with Bouchard as she holds and
breaks more than her opponent on this surface.
So as it stands, we have the following information:-
· Starting prices are wrong with the value on Bouchard.
· Both players are expected to hold serve more than average.
· Safarova should save more break points than average.
· Bouchard has been playing at a higher level over the last 12 months on Hard Court.
· Safarova has poor return numbers and unless Bouchard gifts her some break opportunities
then she could struggle to break her opponent.
All this information is available for every match every day in the Trade on Tennis Notes and Resource centre.
So now we can start to put together a trading plan.
With both players expected to hold serve more than average and with Safarova good at saving break points, then we can
lay Bouchard when she is leading on the Safarova serve at *15-40, while the first set is still on serve. At the end of the
service game or when we get to deuce we hedge our position, taking a profit if there is a service hold or a loss if there is a
break. This is a short term single game trade where we have to take into account the game state as a break at 4-3 rather
than 2-1 will move the price a lot further and could leave us with a bigger red than ideal.
The next step at this point would be to assess whether there is any juice in laying the player a break up in the set. As we
can see Safarova is poor on return so I wouldn’t be in a rush to lay Bouchard if she led by a break unless Safarova had been
applying some serious return pressure in previous games. If Safarova led by a break then we again look at return pressure
but as Genie has some average return numbers rather than elite numbers then this trade could be a possibility as long as
there has been some pressure.
In this scenario the closer we are to the end of set price (EOS) the less risk we take on and the risk versus reward is
stacked in our favour. So if it turns out after looking at the game state that its viable to lay either player a break up in this
match then I will look at keeping my position until either the player a break up gets broken back (I can then hedge for
profit) or the end of the set is reached (I can then hedge for a loss).
Once the 1st set is done we need to see if there’s any value in laying the set winner. Here we look at the stats from the 1st
set and make a note of the break point opportunities of the set loser. I want to see a minimum of two preferably more to
even consider this trade. If the set 1 loser is serving 1st I’ll wait until they have held before laying. Because if they are
broken we can lay at a lower price, if they hold we lose a bit of EV but have a smoother ride.
We also look at a players set 1, 2 & 3 win percentages(available from the resource centre) to see if a player has a drop off
after winning set 1 or whether they are good at closing out a match after taking the 1 st. In this example over the last 12
months when Bouchard has won the 1st set she wins the match 96% of the time (26-1 record), Safarova wins the match
after winning the 1st set 86% of the time (12-2), on the flipside when they lose the opening set Bouchard has a horrible
record of 2-17 (11%) and Safarova 5-16 (24%) so neither girl is much of a fighter and that would put me off this particular
trade in this match.
When we get to a 3rd set the prices move back to around SP as the match is level again and once again we need to check
game state and make a note of break point chances etc, as per set two. We also need to look at a players record in the
deciding set over the last 12 months and in this case Safarova wins the match 56% of the time (5-4 record) with Bouchard
weighing in at 33% (2-4).
Armed with this information, we can see that Bouchard is well worth a lay when a break up in the 3rd as long as Safarova
has been generating break opportunities during the course of the match. I want to see this as she has in general, poor
return numbers, a player with elite return numbers against a poor server, which unfortunately is not the case here, a
would be a cast iron back a break down in the 3rd.
Hopefully you now have a good idea of how to create a tennis trading script based on statistics and match reading, if you
have any more questions then please feel free to contact me via the Skype room and we can organise a one 2 one or email
me via the trade on tennis site.