Barrieta, Jerry P.

SEC1MN S 1:30-4:30 QTV TCHN

Forecasting

CASE STUDY

RC ANIMAL PARK CORPORATION

The poor economy of 2009 resulted in the verging permanent closure of Manila
Zoo. The administration of the City of Manila decided to hire the RC Animal Park
Corporation to operate the Manila Zoo.

The RC Animal Park Corporation realized that it is a must to maintain the image
of the Zoo as a good place for visitors to relax and spend time together with their
families. to accomplish their goal, they have to assure that the place is clean. The
corporation also added more animals, birds, and reptiles to attract more visitors.
They also introduced new activities and games. The efforts of the Corporation seem
to be working because the attendance increased from 70,000 in 2009 to an all-time
high of 165,000 in 2013 as shown in the following table.

Attendance in Manila Zoo as of 2009-2014

Year Attendance
2014 157,800
2013 165,000
2012 120,250
2011 87,600
2010 75,800
2009 70,000

Discussion Questions

1. Based on the data above, can you forecast the attendance for 2015 to 2020?

2. What forecasting technique will be most suitable to forecast the attendance from
2015 to 2020? Why?

Answer:

Year Period (t) Attendance(Y) t2 ty

2009 1 70000 1 70000

2010 2 75800 4 151600

2011 3 87600 9 262800

2012 4 120250 16 481000

2013 5 165000 25 825000

2014 6 157800 36 946800

 21 676450 91 2737200

t= 3.5 Y= 112741.7

Solution:

A. a= 38,816.66667

B. b= 36,9625 / 17.5

b= 21,121.42857

T= 38,816.67+21,121.43

Forecast the attendance for 2015 to 2020

2015, Attendance to forecast:

t=7

= 38,816.67 + 21,121.43(7)

= 38,816.67+ 147,850.01

T= 186666.67

2016, Attendance to forecast:

t=8

= 38,816.67 + 21,121.43(8)

= 38,816.67+ 168,971.44

T= 207,788.11

2017, Attendance to forecast:

t=9

= 38,816.67 + 21,121.43(9)
= 38,816.67+ 190,092.87

T= 228,909.54

2018, Attendance to forecast:

t=10

= 38,816.67 + 21,121.43(10)

= 38,816.67+ 211,214.3

T= 250,030.97

2019, Attendance to forecast:

t=11

= 38,816.67 + 21,121.43(11)

= 38,816.67+ 232,335.73

T= 271,152.4

2020, Attendance to forecast:

t=12

= 38,816.67 + 21,121.43(12)

= 38,816.67+ 253,457.16

T= 292,273.8

2. The best technique that suitable to forecast the attendance is a trend line, because
its a combination of historical data and then projects the line in the future data. It
most accurate and there is a significant to understand the flow of transaction with the
basis of its historical data.