Marvin Rausand Department of Production and Quality Engineering Norwegian University of Science and Technology Marvin - Rausand@ntnu - No

Chapter 1
Introduction
Marvin Rausand
Department of Production and Quality Engineering
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
marvin.rausand@ntnu.no
Marvin Rausand, October 7, 2005 System Reliability Theory (2nd ed), Wiley, 2004 – 1 / 22
Introduction
Brief History
Approaches
Physical Approach
Time Dependent
Basic Concepts
Application Areas
Introduction
Brief History
Introduction 1930’s: Statistical methods for quality control of industrial

Brief History
Approaches
products (Shewhart, Dodge and Romig)
Physical Approach Determination of air crash probability
Time Dependent
1940’s Analysis of German V1 missiles (Robert Lusser)
Basic Concepts
Application Areas
1950’s Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA)
Reliability growth (AGREE)
1960’s Analysis of intercontinental ballistic missiles
Space research programs
Fault tree analysis (Minuteman missile)
New textbooks in reliability (e.g., Barlow and Proschan)
1970’s Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400)
Offshore activities (e.g., in Norway and the U.K.)
Reliability centered maintenance (e.g., Nowlan and Heap)
1990’s Integration of RAMS into product and process design
Different Approaches
Introduction
Brief History
❑ Hardware reliability
Approaches
Physical Approach
Time Dependent ✦ Physical approach
Basic Concepts ✦ Actuarial approach ⇐ [Main focus in this book!]
Application Areas
❑ Software reliability
❑ Human reliability
Physical Approach
Introduction
Brief History
Approaches
Physical Approach
Time Dependent
Load Strength
Basic Concepts distribution distribution
Application Areas
0
"Failure area"
S= Strength of item
L= Load on item
The reliability of the item is defined as:
R = Pr(S > L)
Time Dependent
Introduction
Brief History Strength, S(t)
Approaches
Physical Approach
Failure
Time Dependent
Load, L(t)
Basic Concepts
Application Areas
0
Time to failure, T Time t
The time to failure T is
T = min{t; S(t) < L(t)}
and the reliability R(t) is defined as
R(t) = Pr(T > t)
Introduction
Basic Concepts
Reliability
Quality
Maintainability
Maintenance
Availability
Safety
Security
Dependability Basic Concepts
Reliability
Measures
Application Areas
Reliability
Introduction
The ability of an item to perform a required function, under given
Basic Concepts
Reliability
environmental and operational conditions and for a stated period
Quality of time [ISO 8402]
Maintainability
Maintenance
Availability
Safety
Security
Dependability
Reliability
Measures
Application Areas
Quality
Introduction
The totality of features and characteristics of a product or service
Basic Concepts
Reliability
that bear on its ability to satisfy stated or implied needs
Quality [ISO 8402]
Maintainability
Maintenance
Availability
Safety
Security
Dependability
Reliability
Measures
Application Areas
Maintainability
Introduction
The ability of a item, under stated conditions of use, to be
Basic Concepts
Reliability
retained in, or restored to, a state in which it can perform its
Quality required functions, when maintenance is performed under stated
Maintainability
Maintenance conditions and using prescribed procedures and resources
Availability [BS 4778].
Safety
Security
Dependability
Reliability
The measure of the ability of an item to be retained in or
Measures
restored to specified condition when maintenance is performed by
Application Areas
personnel having specified skill levels, using prescribed procedures
and resources, at each prescribed level of maintenance and repair
[MIL-STD21C].
Maintenance
Introduction
All actions necessary for retaining an item in or restoring it to a
Basic Concepts
Reliability
specified condition [MIL-STD 721C]
Quality
Maintainability ❑ Maintenance can be corrective or preventive
Maintenance ❑ Maintenance should not be mixed up with the related
Availability
Safety concept “maintainability”
Security
Dependability
Reliability
Measures
Application Areas
Availability
The ability of an item (under combined aspects of its reliability,
Introduction
maintainability, and maintenance support) to perform its required
Basic Concepts
Reliability
function at a stated instant of time or over a stated period of
Quality time [BS 4778]
Maintainability
Maintenance
Availability A measure of the degree to which an item is in an operable and
Safety committable state at the start of a mission when the mission is
Security
Dependability called for at an unknown (random) time [MIL-STD 721C].
Reliability
Measures
Availability at time t
Application Areas
A(t) = Pr(item is functioning at time t)
Average availability (under certain conditions)

MTTF
Aav =
MTTF + MTTR
MTTF = Mean time to failure, MTTR = Mean time to repair
Safety
Introduction
Freedom from those conditions that can cause death, injury,
Basic Concepts
Reliability
occupational illness, or damage to or loss of equipment or
Quality property [MIL-STD-882D].
Maintainability
Maintenance
Availability
Safety
Security The expectation that a system does not, under defined
Dependability
Reliability conditions, lead to a state in which human life is endangered
Measures
[DEF-STAN 00-56]
Application Areas
Security
Introduction
Dependability with respect to prevention of deliberate hostile
Basic Concepts
Reliability
actions.
Quality
Maintainability ❑ Security is often used in relation to information and computer
Maintenance systems. In this context, security may be defined as
Availability
Safety “dependability with respect to prevention of unauthorized
Security
Dependability
access to and/or handling of information” [Laprie 1992].
Reliability ❑ The security of critical infrastructures is thoroughly discussed
Measures
Application Areas
in CCIP (1997)
Dependability
Introduction
The collective term used to describe the availability performance
Basic Concepts
Reliability
and its influencing factors: reliability performance, maintainability
Quality performance and maintenance support performance [IEC 60300].
Maintainability
Maintenance
Availability
Safety
Security A measure of the degree to which an item is operable and
Dependability
Reliability capable of performing its required function at any (random) time
Measures
during a specified mission profile, given item availability at the
Application Areas
start of the mission. (Item state during a mission includes the
combined effects of the mission-related system R& M parameters
but excludes non-mission time) [MIL-STD 721C]
Reliability Measures
Introduction
❑ Mean time to failure (MTTF)
Basic Concepts
Reliability
❑ Number of failures per time unit (failure rate)
Quality ❑ The probability that the item does not fail in a time interval
Maintainability
Maintenance (0, t] (survival probability )
Availability ❑ The probability that the item is able to function at time t
Safety
Security (availability at time t)
Dependability
Reliability
Measures
Application Areas
Introduction
Basic Concepts
Application Areas
Application Areas
Models and
Uncertainties
Model Figure
RAMS Activities
Application Areas
Application Areas
Introduction
❑ Risk analysis
Basic Concepts
❑ Environmental protection
Application Areas
Application Areas ❑ Quality
Models and
Uncertainties
❑ Optimization of maintenance and operation
Model Figure ❑ Engineering design
RAMS Activities
❑ Verification of quality/reliability
Models and Uncertainties
Introduction
Basic Concepts
“. . . no model is absolutely correct. In particular
Application Areas situations, however, some models are more useful than
Application Areas others”
Models and
Uncertainties G. E. P. Box
Model Figure
RAMS Activities
❑ The model should be sufficiently simple to be handled by

available mathematical and statistical methods
❑ The model should be sufficiently “realistic” such that the
deducted results are of practical use.
Model Figure
Introduction
Our system
Basic Concepts
Rest of the world
Application Areas
Application Areas Generic data
Models and
Uncertainties
Model Figure Simplification Relevance?
limitations uncertainty
RAMS Activities
Data
Model of system
for the analysis
&
Other inputs Results Other inputs

to decisions Input to decisions to decisions
Decisions
RAMS Activities in Programme Phases - (1)
Introduction
❑ Feasibility phase
Basic Concepts
Application Areas ✦ Definition of the system mission

Application Areas ✦ RAMS requirements definition
Models and
Uncertainties
Model Figure ❑ Definition phase
RAMS Activities
✦ Technical specifications
✦ Hazard identification
❑ Development phase
✦ Compilation of definition file
✦ Design validation
RAMS Activities in Programme Phases - (2)
Introduction
❑ Manufacturing phase
Basic Concepts
Application Areas ✦ Product realization tasks

Application Areas ✦ Assurance of RAMS performances
Models and
Uncertainties
Model Figure ❑ Operations phase
RAMS Activities
✦ Ensure that the RAMS objectives are reached
✦ Data collection and analysis
❑ Dismantling phase

Marvin Rausand Department of Production and Quality Engineering Norwegian University of Science and Technology Marvin - Rausand@ntnu - No

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Marvin Rausand Department of Production and Quality Engineering Norwegian University of Science and Technology Marvin - Rausand@ntnu - No

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Chapter 1

Introduction 1930’s: Statistical methods for quality control of industrial

The reliability of the item is defined as:

The time to failure T is

T = min{t; S(t) < L(t)}

and the reliability R(t) is defined as

R(t) = Pr(T > t)

A(t) = Pr(item is functioning at time t)

Average availability (under certain conditions)

MTTF = Mean time to failure, MTTR = Mean time to repair

❑ The model should be sufficiently simple to be handled by

Other inputs Results Other inputs

Application Areas ✦ Definition of the system mission

Application Areas ✦ Product realization tasks

You might also like