Population Dynamics

Environmental Engineering
Population dynamics
• This topic focuses on population growth and the development of
models that simulate the dynamics of population change, including
the regulation of those dynamics by environmental factors through
modeling of the response of populations to environmental stimuli
• Moreover, this play an important role in many areas of environmental
engineering, including the fate of fecal bacteria discharged to surface
waters, the efficiency of microbes in biological waste treatment, and
substrate/organism interactions in the clean up of contaminated soils.
Other applications include nuisance algae growth in lakes,
biomanipulation as a management approach for surface water
quality, and the transfer of toxic chemicals through the food chain
Models of Population growth
• Consider the case of algal or bacterial community of a lake or river, or the
community of microorganisms in a wastewater system*. The mass balance on
biomass** may be written as:

𝑑𝑋
𝑉 𝑑𝑡 = 𝑄𝑋𝑖𝑛 − 𝑄𝑋 ± 𝑅𝑒𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (1)

Where X - biomass (mg/L)

V - volume (L)
Q - flow (L/day)
t - time (days)
Reaction - refers to all the kinetic processes describing the
growth or death of organisms

*, ** - see next page

• Wastewater treatment – is a process
used to remove contaminants from
wastewater or sewage and convert it
into an effluent that can be returned
to the water cycle with minimum
impact on the environment, or
directly reused
• Biomass – total mass of organisms in
a given area or volume
Models of Population growth
Ignoring the flow terms (i.e., Q = 0, a batch reactor), and assuming that the first-
order kinetics adequately describe the reaction term (in this case, population
growth),

𝑑𝑋
𝑉 𝑑𝑡 = 𝑉𝑘𝑋 (2)

Dividing both sides yields

𝑑𝑋
= 𝑘𝑋 (3)
𝑑𝑡

Where k =first-order rate coefficient (time-1)

Models of Population growth
Three fundamental models

1. Unlimited (exponential) growth

2. Space-limited (logistic) growth
3. Resource-limited (monod) growth
Exponential or Unlimited growth
• The dynamics of many organisms, from bacteria to humans, can be
described using a simple expression termed the exponential growth
model:

𝑑𝑋
= 𝜇𝑋
𝑑𝑡

Where 𝜇 = specific growth-rate coefficient (day-1)

Exponential or Unlimited growth
Rearranging the preceding expression,

𝑑𝑋
𝑋
= 𝜇𝑑𝑡
𝑑𝑋
‫𝑡𝑑𝜇 ׬ = 𝑋 ׬‬
𝑙𝑛𝑋 = 𝜇𝑡 + 𝑐

Simplifying the equation,

𝑒 𝑙𝑛𝑋 = 𝑒 𝜇𝑡+𝑐
X = 𝑒 𝜇𝑡+𝑐 = 𝑒 𝜇𝑡 ∙ 𝑒 𝑐

Or simply, X(t) = 𝐶𝑒 𝜇𝑡
Exponential or Unlimited growth
At time t=0, the total number of population, 𝑋 = 𝑋0 (initial number of
population)

𝑋𝑜 = 𝐶𝑒 𝜇(0) ; 𝐶 = 𝑋𝑜

Therefore, 𝑿(𝒕) = 𝑿𝒐 ∙ 𝒆𝝁𝒕

Where X(t) - biomass at some time, t

X0 - initial biomass
Example
• Consider a population or community with an initial biomass, X0 of
2mg DW/L (dry weight milligrams per liter) and a specific growth rate,
μ of 1 day-1. Determine the biomass concentration in mg DW/L over a
time period of ten days.
Solution
Assume exponential growth. The biomass at any time t is given by

𝑋 𝑡 = 2𝑒 𝑡

The table below presents calculations of biomass as a function of time

Time (days) Biomass (mg DW/L)
1 5
2 15
3 40
4 109
5 297
Time (days) Biomass (mg DW/L)
6 807
7 2,193
8 5,692
9 16,206
10 50,015
Plot of the X(t) function versus time
Plot of X(t) function versus time with
Varying values of μ
Remarks
• Again, the general
𝑑𝑋
definition of exponential growth is given by the 𝑑𝑋
expression 𝑑𝑡 = 𝜇𝑋. Should the value of 𝜇 becomes negative; i.e., 𝑑𝑡 =
− 𝜇𝑋, the expression becomes first-order decay with a general equation
𝑿(𝒕) = 𝑿𝒐 ∙ 𝒆−𝝁𝒕
with a typical plot shown below
Logistic growth: The effect of carrying
capacity
• If the prediction generated by the exponential growth were examined a bit
further along in time some interesting biomass levels would be observed. For
instance, in 100 days the biomass simulated in the previous example would reach
5.4x1043 mg/L. There are no constraints or upper bounds on biomass
• In many situations the exponential growth model has value. However, the logistic
growth model provides a framework that is more in tune with the concept of how
populations and communities of organisms behave, that is, the size of a
population or community is limited by the carrying capacity of the environment
to sustain growth. Carrying capacity again, refers to an upper limit of population
or community size (biomass) imposed through environmental resistance. In
nature, that resistance is related to the availability of renewable resources (e.g.,
food) and nonrenewable (e.g., space) resources as they impact biomass through
reproduction, growth, and survival
Logistic growth: The
effect of carrying
capacity
Logistic growth
The logistic growth model is developed by modifying the maximum
specific growth rate to account for carrying-capacity effects

𝑋
𝜇 = 𝜇𝑚𝑎𝑥 1−
𝐾

Where 𝜇𝑚𝑎𝑥 = maximum specific growth-rate coefficient (day-1)

K = carrying capacity (mg DW/L), i.e., the maximum
sustainable population biomass
Logistic growth
Plugging in μ into k of Eqn. (3) yields

𝑑𝑋 𝑋
= 𝜇𝑚𝑎𝑥 1 − 𝑋
𝑑𝑡 𝐾

Integrating the equation above yields the general equation of Logistic growth
model as a function of time, t

𝑲
𝑿(𝒕) =
𝑲 − 𝑿𝟎 −𝝁𝒎𝒂𝒙 𝒕
𝟏+ 𝑿 ∙𝒆
𝟎
Logistic growth
• Whence it is also equivalent to

𝑿𝟎 𝑲
𝑿(𝒕) =
𝑿𝟎 + (𝑲 − 𝑿𝟎 )𝒆−𝝁𝒎𝒂𝒙 𝒕
Exponential vs. Logistic Growth Plots
Exercise
• Derive the logistic growth model shown in the previous slide (Use similar
approach performed in deriving exponential growth model)

• Proceed to this website https://swillson.public.iastate.edu/Logistic.pdf

for further explanation on Logistics growth differential equation
Example
• Consider the population from the example in Exponential growth
method (X0=2 mg DW/L, μmax=1 day-1), but with a carrying capacity, K
of 5,000 mg DW/L. Determine the population biomass over a time
period of 10 days.
Solution
• Applying the general form for Logistics growth model, the population
as a function of time, t is expressed as

𝟓, 𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝑿(𝒕) =
𝟓, 𝟎𝟎𝟎 − 𝟐 −𝒕
𝟏+ ∙ 𝒆
𝟐
Solution
Biomass
Time concentr
μ (days-1)
(days) ation (mg
DW/L)
0 1.0 2
1 1.0 5
2 1.0 15
3 1.0 40
4 1.0 107
5 1.0 280
6 0.9 695 Plot of biomass concentration, X(t) and
7 0.7 1525 growth rate, μ vs. time
8 0.5 2720
9 0.2 3821
10 0.1 4491