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Past and Future
Maureen Hand, Ph.D.
2nd NREL Wind Energy System Engineering Workshop
Broomfield, CO
January 2930, 2013
NREL/PR‐6A20‐57841
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
Overview
• Historical trend for wind plant levelized cost
of energy (LCOE) including influence of
turbine pricing fluctuation and introduction
of low wind speed turbine technology
• Projections for future wind plant LCOE based
on learning curve, expert elicitation, and
engineering‐based modeling.
2
Wind Plant LCOE Declined by More Than
2/3 Between the Early 1980s and 2000s
$300
US (LBNL/NREL Internal Analysis)
$250
Levelized Cost of Energy
Denmark (DEA 1999)
(2010 USD/MWh)
Coastal European Sites (Lemming et al. 2009)
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: Lantz et al. 2012
Escalation in wind power capital costs since 2003 resulted from:
• Rising commodity and raw material prices
• Increased labor costs
• Improved manufacturer profitability
• Turbine upscaling.
3
Lower Turbine Prices Since 2009 Along With Improved
Wind Turbine Performance May Yield a Return to
Historically Low LCOE Levels in 20122013
$170
Levelized Cost of Energy in the United States
$150
Estimated LCOE:
2009‐10
$130
(2010 USD/MWh)
$110 Estimated
LCOE:
2002‐03
$90
Estimated
$70 LCOE:
2012‐13
$50
5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5
Class 2 Class 3 Class 4 Class 5 Class 6
50 Meter Wind Speed (m/s)
air density = 1.225 kg/m3
Source: Lantz et al. 2012
• Estimated wind plant LCOE based on observed market variation in
capital investment and modeled wind plant performance
• Incentives or policies that reduce price of wind energy in wholesale
power markets (e.g., production tax credit) excluded.
4
New Technology Options Reduce Variability in LCOE Across a
Range of Wind Resource Sites
$120
Levelized Cost of Energy ($/MWh)
$100
6 m/s
$44/MWh
$80
No Incentives
7 m/s $25/MWh
$60 8 m/s
$40
$20
$0
2002‐03 Current, 2012‐13
Standard Technology Technology Choice
Source: Lantz et al. 2012
• Low wind speed technology designed for International
Electrotechnical Commission Class III sites provides Technology
Choice in 20122013 for annual average sea level equivalent wind
speeds at 50 meters.
5
Most Projections for Wind Plant LCOE Anticipate Future
Reductions With Opportunities for Greater Reductions in
Offshore Wind Plant LCOE
Land‐Based Wind LCOE Offshore Wind LCOE
Source: Tegen et al. 2012
• Projections included here were published and derived from a variety of methods
including learning curves, expert elicitation, and engineering‐based models.
6
Demonstrating Future Cost Reduction of Wind Energy is
Important for Understanding Future Electric Sector Evolution
• Renewable Electricity (RE) Futures showed that the incremental cost of high RE
scenarios is comparable to published cost estimates of other clean energy
scenarios
• Improvement in the cost and performance of renewable technologies is the most
impactful lever for reducing this incremental cost.
7
Learning Curves Capture Industry‐Level Advances but Do Not
Provide Insight Into the Role of Technology Research and
Development Specifically
Source: IPCC 2011
• Describe cost reduction potential as a function of cumulative experience related to
cumulative installed capacity
• Do not attempt to identify specific factors that yield cost reductions
• Represent learning by research and development (R&D), learning by experience, learning
by deployment, learning by doing, and so on.
8
Expert Elicitation Can Represent Deep Knowledge and
Experience but Is Difficult to Translate Into LCOE
TIOs’ Potential for Improvement (% change from reference turbine)
O&M Costs
possible technology outcomes to
achieve future cost reductions -30 -20 -10
% Change
associated with various technical
Manufacturing TIOs
outcomes to represent the likelihood of
successful innovations Reduced Energy Losses and
Increased Availability TIOs
9
Engineering‐Based Modeling and Analysis Can Capture
Interactions Between Components to Quantify the Impact of
Specific Technology Innovations on LCOE at the System Level
User Inputs:
Governing
Analysis Type and Structure, Fixed Parameter Input Conditions, Software
Design Variables, Constraints (OpenMDAO)
Analysis Software
Turbine Structure and Cost Energy Production Assembly (i.e., OpenMDAO, DAKOTA)
Assembly
Rotor Drivetrain Balance of O&M
Rotor Drivetrain
Aerodynamics Efficiency Plant Component
Structure Structure
Component
Cost and Sizing Tool
Wind Plant Analysis Tool Wind Plant COE
Outputs
Source: NREL
10
Conclusions
• Wind energy LCOE has decreased since the
1980s and is likely to continue this downward
trend
• Projections for future cost of wind energy with
greater precision in magnitude and likelihood
will influence electric‐sector evolution scenarios
• Engineering‐based models provide the
opportunity to quantify the impact of innovative
concepts on wind plant system LCOE.
11
References
• Cohen, J.; Schweizer, T.; Laxson, A.; Butterfield, S.; Schreck, S.; Fingersh, L.; Veers, P.; Ashwill, T. (2008).
Technology Improvement Opportunities for Low Wind Speed Turbines and Implications for Cost of Energy
Reduction: July 9, 2005July 8, 2006. 37 pp.; NREL Report No. TP‐500‐41036.
• Hand, M.M.; Baldwin, S.; DeMeo, E.; Reilly, J.M.; Mai, T.; Arent, D.; Porro, G.; Meshek, M.; Sandor, D.
(2012). Renewable Electricity Futures Study (Entire Report). National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Eds.
4 vols. NREL/TP‐6A20‐52409. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
• IPCC. (2011). Summary for Policymakers. IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate
Change Mitigation [O. Edenhofer, R.; Pichs‐Madruga, Y.; Sokona, K.; Seyboth, P.; Matschoss, S.; Kadner,
T.; Zwickel, P.; Eickemeier, G. Hansen; S. Schlomer; C. von Stechow (eds)], Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
• Lantz, E.; Wiser, R.; Hand, M. (2012). IEA Wind Task 26: The Past and Future Cost of Wind Energy, Work
Package 2. 137 pp.; NREL Report No. TP‐6A20‐53510.
• Tegen, S.; Hand, M.; Maples, B.; Lantz, E.; Schwabe, P.; Smith, A. (2012). 2010 Cost of Wind Energy
Review. 111 pp.; NREL Report No. TP‐5000‐52920.
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Thank you. For more information…
M. Maureen Hand
303‐384‐6933
maureen.hand@nrel.gov