Floating Solar Power Plant

in Afghanistan

Speaker:

Shahwali Amani & Barialai Barai

International Master’s Program - Electrical Power

Engineering
Higher School Institute of Energy

Instructor:
https://iets.spbstu.ru/ Professor – Титов Александр Борисович
1 Background Information
 Finding space for industrial-scale solar power arrays is a challenge for many countries aiming to significantly scale
up renewable power capacity to meet net-zero carbon emissions targets. As a result, floating solar panel system
use is increasing.
 Floating solar power plants are mainly solar panels mounted on floating structures such as rafts, pontoons or
barges, then placed in bodies of water such as lakes, reservoirs or even the sea.
 Utilize un used space, since the water surface is free

 Enhanced efficiency (15%) compare to land surface solar plant due to natural water cooling of the PV cell.
 Reduce evaporation of water,
 Easy to integrate with the existing power grid of hydro power plant.

 Limitations and challenges:

 Maintenance: Floating solar power plants require regular maintenance
to ensure optimal performance.
2 Project Location
 The location for the pilot project is the Qargha
lake, Kabul Province of Afghanistan.
 Information of the Site
 Water Quality Analysis
o The lake water quality has not been analyzed, but
the fresh water is considered clean and without
any particular properties.
 Bathymetry Analysis
o The lake of the dam has a maximum length of
450 m and an average depth of 30 meters and
stretches over 72 hectares.
The Project Floating Area [m2]
Needed Floating Area 1150
 4 Environmental data from Climate One Building for Kabul

o The site shows some temperature

variation throughout the year: -13 to
38ºC. The wind speed is low (3 m/s
average) and predominantly from the
South/Southwest (200°) with low
impact on load bearing for the
modules and foundations.
o Snow is reported during winter for 3
months, from December 7 to March 8.
- The additional load shall be taken into
consideration for the sizing of the floating
structure as well as PV modules
5 Single Line Diagram for the FPV Pilot

o The single line diagram is included for

the connection of the FPV system to the
transformer post.

o The plant capacity is 100 kW.

o Voltage: 400V
o Frequency: 50Hz
o Grid Connected
 6 Main Components of the System

floating PV

 Meteo Station
Measuring atmospheric
conditions to provide  The floating PV System  Three-phase inverter 100KW
information for weather The floating PV structure is expected to be of It should be of the outdoor type
forecasts and to study the medium or high density polyethylene (MDPE or and adapted to the temperatures
weather and climate. HDPE). It should be designed for 25 years and and climate of the site.
withstand temperatures of -10ºC to 50ºC. It should
take in consideration the water of the lake, sustain
waves of at least 1 m and allow O&M Servicing.
7 Main Components of the System

 Oil Immersed Transformer

(20 -15/0.4kV, 50Hz, Dyn5-
200kVA) for indoor
installation ONAN 3 phase  Distribution panel 0.4 kV
 Isolator Including main switch 400 A
Outdoors type (Normal voltage 20 KV, Rated (with 2x100 A + 160 A + 63 A)
voltage 24 KV) 630 A outgoing MCCBs
8 Single Line Diagram for the FPV Pilot

 Anchoring solution
The anchoring should be done through cement/concrete dead
weights in the bottom of the lake

 Electrical cables
The electrical cables will be UV protected and will not be
submersed, but kept on top of the PV floating structure for the
DC cables and floating in a duct to the shore for the AC cables.
The cables should be protected from the water and also endure
the expected humidity.
9 Solar Tracking System

 “Track” the sun throughout the day to increase the amount of solar power they can generate, either mounted
on a single-axis or dual-axis tracker.
 Combining floating and solar tracking technologies 40% more productive than comparable static installations
on land.
 According to a study published in 2022, tracking solar panels can output between 10% and 60% more energy
than a fixed system. While this range is highly dependent on property location, time of day, and single vs. dual-
axis systems, most sources estimate that sun-tracking solar panels output between 30% and 40% more power
each year than a fixed installation.
10 ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

 The estimated cost of the plant Supply, Construction and Installation works
№ Investing Plan for the Floating PV Plant (100kw) Projection Plan(Investing Period)
1 Procurement of Goods and Supply of Plant Equipment(CIP) $100,000.00 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24
$ $
1.1 PV Modules $30,000.00
3,000.00 27,000.00
$ $
1.2 Inverters $6,000.00
600.00 5,400.00
$ $
1.3 Floating Structure (m2) $600.00
60.00 540.00
$ Delivery
1.4 Anchors (1 ton each) $300.00
300.00 Only
Oil immersed transformer (20 -15/0.4kV, 50Hz, Dyn5- 200kVA) for indoor $ $
1.5 $4,961.34
installation ONAN 3 phase impedance voltage 4% 496.13 4,465.21
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
1.6 Civil materials $36,000.00
3,600.00 7,200.00 7,200.00 7,200.00 3,600.00 3,600.00 3,600.00
$ $ $ $
1.7 Other Accessories including cable, clamp, cable lugs… $22,138.66
11,069.33 6,641.60 2,213.87 2,213.87
2 Constrution and Installation Works $120,000.00
$ $
2.1 - Mobilization at the Site $20,000.00
10,000.00 10,000.00
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
2.2 - Delivery of machinary and goods to the site $10,000.00
1,000.00 1,500.00 1,500.00 1,500.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 500.00 500.00 500.00 700.00 300.00
$
2.3 Test and Commessioning $5,000.00
5,000.00
$
2.4 - Demobilization $2,000.00
2,000.00
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
2.5 Satff Salary(Engineers, Skilled and none Skilled labors…) $60,000.00
4,800.00 4,800.00 4,800.00 4,800.00 4,800.00 6,000.00 6,000.00 4,800.00 4,800.00 4,800.00 4,800.00 4,800.00
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
2.6 - Other Expenses $23,000.00
2,300.00 3,450.00 1,840.00 1,840.00 1,840.00 1,840.00 1,840.00 1,840.00 1,840.00 1,840.00 2,070.00 460.00
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
2.7 Total Sum(Cash Received as Loan from ADB) $220,000.00
21,196.13 22,850.00 15,700.00 15,340.00 15,340.00 12,440.00 12,440.00 21,809.33 13,781.60 46,759.07 9,783.87 12,560.00
2.8 VAT tax $4,400.00
2.9 Net Cash Used $215,600.00
11 ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

 The Initial cost of plant and all equipment will be financed with a loan from Asian Development Bank.
 The project construction period is 1 year(2024)

Financial Analysis
CAPEX (without Solar Tracking System) $ 220,000.00

Plant Capacity(kW) 100

Production level(MWh) 220

OPEX $ 6,000.00
Billing ($/kW) $ 0.22
Sales/Year (without Solar tracking system) $ 48,400
Payback Period 2025-2039
 12 CASH FLOW FORECAST, US DOLLAR

Cash Flow forecast (some values include

VAT 20%), USD

№Component\Period(years) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
OPERATING ACTIVITIES
+ Cash received from
selling electricity 0 48400 48400 48400 48400 48400 48400 48400 48400 48400 48400 48400 48400 48400 48400 48400
(revenue)
- cash paid for cleaning 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200
- cash paid for
replacement or repair of 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800
PV
- cash paid to employees 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000
(salary)
- salary tax 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160
- profit tax (4%) 1690 1690 1690 1690 1690 1690 1690 1690 1690 1690 1690 1690 1690 1690 1690
Net cash used in
operating activities 0 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550
INVESTING ACTIVITIES
Net cash used in investing - 220
activities 000,00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FINANCING ACTIVITIES
Inflow 0 48400 48400 48400 48400 48400 48400 48400 48400 48400 48400 48400 48400 48400 48400 48400

out flow -220000 -7850 -7850 -7850 -7850 -7850 -7850 -7850 -7850 -7850 -7850 -7850 -7850 -7850 -7850 -7850

bigning cash flow -220000 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550
Ending Cash Balance -220000 -179450 -138899 -98349 -57798 -17248 23302 63853 104403 144954 185504 226054 266605 307155 347706 388256
 13 EVALUATING THE FEASIBILITY OF INVESTMENT, (US DOLLAR)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Period
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039
Payback Period without -
discount rate -220000 -179450 -138900 -98350 -57800 17250 23300 63850 104400 144950 185500 226050 266600 307150 347700 388250

FCF(nocf+IC) -220000 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550 40550
Discounting
Multiplier 1/(1+r)^t 1,00 0,95 0,91 0,86 0,82 0,78 0,75 0,71 0,68 0,64 0,61 0,58 0,56 0,53 0,51 0,48

Discounted FCF
-220000 38619 36780 35029 33361 31772 30259 28818 27446 26139 24894 23709 22580 21505 20481 19505
Accomulated value of discounted - -
FCF(NPV) -220000 -181381 -144600 -109571 -76210 44438 14179 14640 42086 68225 93119 116828 139408 160913 181394 200899

500000 NPV NPV=$14640>0, the 7th year

400000
PI=1,51 PI>1
300000

200000
on the forecast horizon under consideration (15
100000 years).

 The project can be

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
-100000
accepted
-200000

-300000
14 NPV DEPENDENCE ON THE DISCOUNT RATE ($)

NPV dependency on Discount Factor

1200000.00
IRR > r
1000000.00
4% < 5% 800000.00

600000.00

The project is not 400000.00

Series1

accepted 200000.00

0.00
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
-200000.00

-400000.00

-600000.00
15 SWAT Analysis

Strengths (S): Weaknesses (W):

1. Competent management, Decreasing sun light due to cloud related
2. Closely monitoring the polluted and to climate change.
panels,

Opportunities (O): Threats (T):

1. Installation of Automatic Sun Tracking 1.
System for the PV panels, which will
increase efficiency from 15 to 25%,
2. In our case we have considered 20% 2.
as an average value for calculation.
Miss management, not qualified
technician as the floating system was
not used earlier,
High replacement cost,
 16 EVALUATING THE FEASIBILITY OF INVESTMENT, (US DOLLAR) (WITH SUN
TRACKING SYSTEM)
Pay back with tracking system
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Period
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039
Payback Period without discount 54049
rate -242000 -189834 -137667 -85501 -33334 18832 70998 123165 175331 227498 279664 331830 383997 436163 488330 6
FCF(nocf+IC) -242000 52166 52166 52166 52166 52166 52166 52166 52166 52166 52166 52166 52166 52166 52166 52166
Discounting
Multiplier 1/(1+r)^t 1,00 0,95 0,91 0,86 0,82 0,78 0,75 0,71 0,68 0,64 0,61 0,58 0,56 0,53 0,51 0,48
Discounted FCF -242000 49682 47316 45063 42917 40874 38927 37074 35308 33627 32026 30501 29048 27665 26348 25093
Accomulated value of discounted 29946
FCF(NPV) -242000 -192318 -145001 -99938 -57021 -16147 22781 59854 95163 128789 160815 191316 220364 248029 274376 9

NPV comparison without & with sun tracking system

400000

300000
NPV=$22781>0; in the 6th year
200000
PI=, PI>1
100000
NPV

on the forecast horizon under

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 consideration (15 years).
-100000

-200000

-300000 Discount Rate (%)

17 NPV DEPENDENCE ON THE DISCOUNT RATE ($)

IRR Value comparison without & with sun tracking system

2000000.00 IRR>r
8%>5%
The Project is accepted
1500000.00

1000000.00 NPV=$22781>0;

PI=3,7 , PI>1
500000.00
on the forecast horizon under
consideration (15 years).

0.00
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

-500000.00
18 PRIMARY INFORMATION OF THE SCENARIO ANALYSIS, (US DOLLAR)

Primary table of the scenario analysis

Negative Real Positive
Value/Scenario
(pessimistic ) (most likely) (optimistic )

Cleaning of the
Panel 3 600,0 3 000,0 2 400,0
Replacement or
repair of PV 32 400,0 27 000,0 21 600,0

Employee (salary) 72 000,0 60 000,0 48 000,0

Discount rate 6,00% 5,00% 4,00%
19 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF NPV, (Spider Graph), (US DOLLAR)

NPV value for the

NPV value for a
Deviation of the corresponding change in the NPV value for the
corresponding change
parameter value from Salary of employees (or corresponding change
the base values average salary) in cost of repairmen in in maintenance

20% 26,678.71 24,534.74 22,975.49

0% 22781 22781 22781
-20% 18,882.45 21,026.42 22586

30,000.00

25,000.00

20,000.00

15,000.00

NPV value for a corresponding change in cost of repairment

10,000.00
NPV value for the corresponding change in the average number of employees (or average
salary)
5,000.00
NPV value for the corresponding change in in maintenance
-
-20% 0% 20%
20 CONCLUSION

1. The design life of the solar power plant is 15 years.

2. The initial design doesn’t not give the required IRR greater than the discount rate, so for recovering
investment cost we have to add automatic solar tracking system to improve the system efficiency
by 20 percent. The IRR=8% has been achieved, which is bigger than discount factor of 5%.

3. At the selected discount rate of 5% , for initial design, main project indicators are as follows:
NPV=14640 $, PI=1,5, IRR=4%, DPP=6 years. So the project is not accepted.

4. At the selected discount rate of 5% , for improved design (adding Solar tracking system), main
project indicators are as follows: NPV=22781 $, PI=3,7, IRR=8%, DPP=5 years. So the project
may be accepted.

5. The results of the sensitivity evaluation shows that the greatest threat for the project is a possible
decrease in the professional personal, so the increased number and professional personal
strengthen the over all management of the project and contribute to the maximum out put of the
plant.
6. The efficiency of the plant can be increased with installation of the Solar Tracking System.
THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION