Shraddha Umarji

Economist
6640 6591

Oilseeds and Veg Oils Report June 2009

Spot and Future Price Movement in Soyabean:

Soyabean Global production is projected to be 241.4 million tonnes in
Rs/Q
2009-10 against 210.9 million tonnes in 2008-09 according
2700 to the USDA estimates. The expected increase in production
2650 may be attributed to a likely rise in contribution by USA,
2600 Brazil and Argentina. USA is likely to see a production of
2550 86.9 million tonnes followed by Brazil with 60 million tonnes.
2500
Argentina may contribute 51 million tonnes of production.
2450
USDA estimates for India are projected at 10 million tonnes.
2400
2350
2300 On the Domestic front:
2250 Soyabean is a monsoon crop. Rains play a crucial role in
2200 Soyabean planting. The last week of June has witnessed a
pick up in monsoons in major producing states which have
1 -Ju n
3 -Ju n
5 -Ju n
7 -Ju n
9 -Ju n
1 1 -Ju n
1 3 -Ju n
1 5 -Ju n
1 7 -Ju n
1 9 -Ju n
2 1 -Ju n
2 3 -Ju n
2 5 -Ju n
2 7 -Ju n
2 9 -Ju n

helped sowing. The Agriculture Ministry’s Weather Watch

Report shows to rise in the acreage of Soyabean to 1.14 lakh
hectares against 1.03 hectares last year as on 19 June,
Spot Price Sep-09 Jun-09 Jul-09
2009. This is attributed to the fact that higher remuneration
Source: NCDEX for the crop compared to other crops has caused a shift in
crop loyalty. The month witnessed a lower export demand
for Soya meal due to a decrease in production of meat and
Spot and Future Price Movement in the grim economic situation. All of the above have
Rape-mustard seed contributed to declining prices.

Rs/20Kg
560 Rape-mustard seed:
According to the Ministry of Agriculture (3rd advanced
550
estimates) the production of the Rabi crop is expected to be
540 higher at 73.15 lakh tonnes in the current season against
58.34 last year. The encouraging progress of monsoon
530 coupled with increased production estimates have caused
520 weakening of prices.

510 Soyabean oil:

500
The world production of the oil is expected to be around 37.3
million tonnes against 35.6 million tonnes in the previous
1-Jun
3-Jun
5-Jun
7-Jun
9-Jun
11-Jun
13-Jun
15-Jun
17-Jun
19-Jun
21-Jun
23-Jun
25-Jun
27-Jun
29-Jun

year causing declining prices. India is projected to produce

15.52 lakh tonnes of Soyabean oil against 14.81 lakh tonnes
Spot Price Sep-09 Jun-09 Jul-09
in 2008-09.

Source: NCDEX COOIT reports that the import of Vegetable oils for the
period November 08 to May 09 increased to 46.83 lakh
tonnes against 25.22 lakh tonnes indicating a rise of 86%.
The reasons contributing to a rise in imports are decline in
world prices, increase in consumption and withdrawal of
import duty on edible oils.

1
Spot and Future Price Movement in
Soyabean oil COOIT has recommended an imposition of 30%
duty on import of crude edible oil and 40% duty on
Rs/10Kg
505 refined oils. The Solvent Extractor’s Association has
500 pointed out to the need for encouraging farmers to
495 increase oilseed production. COOIT has warned that
490 high imports may make the country highly
485 dependent on exporting countries which may
480 dictate terms and prices in future..
475
470 Traded Volumes on the Exchange in June,
465 2009
460 Traded Volumes on
NCDEX (in Rs Crores)
1-Jun
3-Jun
5-Jun
7-Jun
9-Jun
11-Jun
13-Jun
15-Jun
17-Jun
19-Jun
21-Jun
23-Jun
25-Jun
27-Jun
29-Jun

Soyabean 4,245
RM seed 5,498
Spot Price Sep-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Soyabean oil 8,123
Source: NCDEX Source: NCDEX

Appendix: International Price Movement

Price Movement in Soyabean CBOT Price Movement in Soyabean oil CBOT

1290
41
1270
40
1250
USc/Bsh

39
USc/LBS

1230
1210 38

1190 37
1170 36
1150
35
1-Jun

8-Jun

15-Jun

22-Jun

29-Jun

1-Jul
1-Jun
3-Jun
5-Jun
7-Jun
9-Jun
11-Jun
13-Jun
15-Jun
17-Jun
19-Jun
21-Jun
23-Jun
25-Jun
27-Jun
29-Jun

Near month C lose Price

Near month C lose Price

Source: Reuters Source: Reuters

Disclaimer:
This report has been prepared by the Knowledge Management Department of NCDEX Limited for the purpose of information dissemination. The
news reported is from the stated sources and does not necessarily reflect the views of NCDEX. The facts are reported from publications and have not
been checked for authenticity. NCDEX and its employees will not be responsible for any decision taken by the reader based on this report and are
advised to take independent advise on the commodity(ies) dealthis report