University of the Philippines

Technology Management Center

Diliman, Quezon City

THE FUTURE OF

TECHNOLOGICAL
INNOVATION
IN A COVID PANDEMIC SOCIETY

A Final Paper presented to Prof. Glen A. Imbang Mario L. Rance

In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the TM281, F 6-9PM
subject, Strategic Technology Planning (TM281) mlrance@up.edu.ph
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Introduction
Viruses are as old as the existence of human beings. They are one of the first
living things inhabited the planet. But unlike them, they need to hijack other
living things to reproduce, and that is their goal, to survive and reproduce
themselves by using other living things.

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a newly

discovered coronavirus.

Most people infected with the COVID-19 virus will experience mild to moderate
respiratory illness and recover without requiring special treatment. Older
people, and those with underlying medical problems like cardiovascular disease,
diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, and cancer are more likely to develop
serious illness.

The best way to prevent and slow down transmission is be well informed about
the COVID-19 virus, the disease it causes and how it spreads. Protect yourself
and others from infection by washing your hands or using an alcohol-based rub
frequently and not touching your face. The virus spreads primarily through
droplets of saliva or discharge from the nose when an infected person coughs
or sneezes, so it is important that you also practice respiratory etiquette (for
example, by coughing into a flexed elbow).

A pandemic is not new to us. Throughout history, many deadly infectious

diseases have demonstrated massive deaths and unimaginable economic
damages. The Spanish flu with 50 million deaths worldwide in 1918, was first
observed in Europe, the United States, and parts of Asia before swiftly spreading
around the world. The bubonic plague with 15 million victims in 1855, starting
in China and moving to India and Hong Kong. These are some of the pandemics
in history that drastically changed the world.

Now, as we are amid finding the vaccine to the virus, how did we cope to resolve
it? Did we learn from other pandemics in the past? How modern technology help
the 20th century overcome this crisis? Are these technologies more effective
than the basics (quarantine and lockdowns)? How did Philippines could have
responded more effectively? How technology innovation evolved in this time of
pandemic?
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The Creative Destruction and

Technology Innovation in this time
of COVID19 Pandemic
An Austrian economist and political scientist, Joseph Schumpeter, have once
said, “Lack of outlets, excess capacity, complete deadlock, in the end
regular recurrence of national bankruptcies and other disasters-
perhaps world wars from sheer capitalist despair - may confidently
anticipated. History is as simple as that”, this statement could be an
interpretation that the Coronavirus could have mitigated the global effects in
health, economy and other industries, we are not just ready.

The unanticipated occurrence of COVID-19 Pandemic has changed the global

economy drastically. Many industries have perished, and other new industries
are born. This condition can be classified as due to “Creative Destruction”.
Creative destruction was first coined by Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter
in 1942. He describes creative destruction as the "process of industrial
mutation that incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from
within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new
one."

The term is most often used to describe disruptive technologies such as the
railroads or, in our own time, the Internet. As is implied by the word destruction,
the process inevitably results in losers and winners. Entrepreneurs and workers
in new technologies will inevitably create disequilibrium and highlight new profit
opportunities. Producers and workers committed to the older technology will be
left stranded.

Many businesses have shifted to digital platform. Online selling and money bank
transfers became an instant hit. To Schumpeter, economic development is the
natural result of forces internal to the market and is created by the opportunity
to seek profit. Netflix is one of the modern examples of creative
destruction, having overthrown disc rental and traditional media industries.

The COVID-19 Pandemic is an eye opener to the significance of digital platform.

Though it killed and laid off many jobs, it created more jobs and created new
job roles in this industry such as programmers, data engineers, data analysts
and the like.
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The point, as Schumpeter noted, is that an evolutionary process rewards

improvements and innovations and punishes less efficient ways of organizing
resources. The trend line is toward progress, growth, and higher standards of
living overall.

Is Technological Innovation at brink?

Many industries and businesses have laid off during the pandemic. Many think
that the economy will really went down. Surprisingly, many industries were born
and strengthen such as the e-commerce and digital industry. Entertainment
industry went on our flat screens and shopping are all at the tips of our fingers.
Jon Sundbo, a Danish professor in business administration and innovation said,
“Innovation is the ability to recognize market opportunities and to
transform them into external and internal business strategies…. The
strategy is the framework for innovation development Because of that
the fundamental element in the innovation theories became the
entrepreneur. An entrepreneur is a single individual who is driven by
need to create business activities, for instance, to put into practice an
idea about a new product, a new way of organizing the production
process or of establishing a new market area. Thus, the behavior of these
particular individuals explained economic growth”

Human beings are innovative in nature and technology innovation is a never-

ending phenomenon, regardless of economic situation. People and technology are
intertwined and inseparable. People has to live, and technology is one of the
tools. As Rosenberg said, “Technology discloses man’s mode of dealing with
nature, the process of production by which he sustains his life. And
thereby also lays bare the mode of formation of his social relations and
the mental conceptions that flow from them.”

Drones, Artificial Intelligence (AI) on the move

Pasig City, under the leadership of Vico Sotto, has used drones to disinfect the
city. According to news, the city government was supposed to use the drones to
help its farmers with crop pest management. But with the unprecedented
situation, the Pasig City government instead used the drones to disinfect the
whole city.
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Each drone can load up to 10 liters of disinfectant and spray a wide range of 500
up to 1000 square meters. It can fly continuously for 30 minutes. “‘Kapag
airborne na, mas effective ang drone. ‘Di kasi natin nakikita ang molecules
tapos ito, wider range, faster. Imagine, backpack sprayer compared doon
sa lawak ng area na makocover nito,” Pasig City Disaster Risk Reduction and
Management Office chief Bryant Wong said.

Meanwhile, local talents using AI and mobile platforms develop innovative tools to
fight the pandemic to be used in contact tracing, health assessment and
monitoring, and community monitoring.

These mobile apps are (1) BirdsEye that can be used for location mapping and
matching, transportation matching and mapping, temperature management, mass
testing management and contact tracing; (2) COVID19TRACKER.PH where the
user will be immediately alerted if you are in closed contact with a confirmed
COVID-19 patient for the last 14 days and (3) WeTrace that can be used for
patient mapping, case reporting and location tracking.

On Artificial Intelligence, COVID-19 SCAN developed by Senti AI, the country’s

leading artificial intelligence (AI) company, designed this self-assessment app to
aid users in determining proper action to take given the symptoms being
experienced and history of travel encoded. The Barvid-19 is a Barangay Tracker
is a barangay and city-wide tracker that can help the public identify the number of
people infected with COVID-19 and the specific barangay where they are. The
SafeTravelPH for users to easily report road and other transport incidents in their
area that are related to the ECQ. These reports will be relayed to national and local
authorities for their immediate action and the COVID-19 Symptom Tracker that
allows individuals to easily declare symptoms which will be tagged in the area
where these individuals reside. After submitting the symptoms, personal
information such as age and gender, are the only required personal information to
be filled in. The self-reported symptoms are then projected to a map for easy
visualization that will be useful for decision-making purposes.
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Sen. Miriam Defensor Santiago and

Bill Gates’ Foresight Similarities
In 2013, when the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-COV) outbreak is at
its height, the late Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago filed Senate Bill No. 1573 or
the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act. The bill called for the
creation of a national health strategy in cases of pandemics and national
emergencies. But unfortunately, it was deemed pending in the Senate.

The proposed law aims to strengthen national response and preparedness for
public health emergencies, such as those which result from natural disasters and
severe weather, recent outbreaks and pandemics, bioterrorism, mass casualties,
chemical emergencies, and radiation emergencies. The Department of Health
(DOH) will create a pandemic strategy, and will be the lead agency that will issue
directives to the Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG), the
Philippine Red Cross, and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management
Council (NDRRMC). It also provides the creation of a Medical Reserve Corps that
will be composed of volunteer health professionals who will be called into duty if a
national health emergency arises.1

The late Senator Santiago has seen the unsynchronized and the lack of
coordination of agencies during the likelihood of such medical outbreak.

Coincidentally, the Microsoft founder Bill Gates also predicted that a highly
contagious respiratory virus will spread in the future. In his TED Talk titled, “The
Next Outbreak? We’re not ready”, in 2015. “If anything kills over 10 million
people in the next few decades, it’s most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather
than a war — not missiles but microbes,” he said at the time. “We have invested
a huge amount in nuclear deterrents, but we’ve actually invested very little in a
system to stop an epidemic. We’re not ready for the next epidemic.” 2 Gates
stressed that even the United States and Europe have not prepared for advanced
research on this virus.

Both Sen. Santiago and Bill Gates have foresight the trend of the virus. They both
seen the effect of MERS-COV and Ebola virus that killed thousands of people.
Trend Analysis assumes that the future is a logical continuation of the past
and therefore may be accurately represented mathematically. The approach
requires that all the significant influences and how they relate are known and can
be expressed in mathematical form.
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In simple definition, Trend Analysis focuses on statistical models and analyzed data
into the future. To understand this forecasting tool, we must learn that forecasting
has three approach needed: the (1) predictive approach which leans heavily on
historical data and projects historical patterns, (2) explorative approach which
focuses on what could happen in future, and the (3) normative approach which
dissatisfies with the current and sees the future above all as possibility to fix things.
Three approaches are interconnected in cyclical way. This cyclical loop can start in
the past, predictions about the future are based on past (forward loop). Then, idea
about the future affects people thoughts and actions in the present and they often
see past differently as well (backward loop). The past, present and future are
interconnected in a cyclical way.

Trend analysis has given us what to expect in this time of pandemic. The virus
trend differs from country to country which gives us picture to what precautionary
and health measures they do. Epidemiology also has a big share in the analysis of
this trend. And it can only show if the curve has really flattened.

Technology Foresight Technique used: Trend Analysis

How Scenario Planning

redefined the “Normal”?
The Inter-Agency Task Force on Emerging Infectious Disease (IATF-EID) has set
new guidelines in the implementation of the “new normal” of doing things
especially in going outdoors.

The new normal will likely see people keeping their face masks, their first line of
defense against COVID-19, even if the Enhanced Community Quarantine order is
eased or lifted in some parts of the Philippines. They will consciously practice
physical distancing as much as possible and avoid crowded places.

The IATF-EID have used the “scenario planning” to come up with the said
guidelines. “Scenarios are images of the future or alternative futures. They
are neither predictions nor forecasts. Rather each scenario is alternative
image of how the future might unfold.”
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Basically, Scenario planning is a strategic planning tool used to make flexible long-
term plans and learn about the future by understanding the nature and impact of
the most uncertain and important driving forces affecting our world. The driving
forces are usually based on demographics, economic, social, cultural, technological,
environmental and governance aspects.

Scenarios intend to provoke the strategic thought by removing obstacles to creative

thinking and aim to anticipate future threats and opportunities, develop multiple
futures based on optimistic and pessimistic projections of past events, provide
leadership for new initiatives or direction, create options for decision making,
create frameworks for a shared vision of the future to influence organizational
and individual behavior and create an internal or external communication
channel that transcends organizational boundaries, time and space.

The new normal has redefined the labor force. Business establishments has
implementing precautionary health measures such as checking temperature before
entering their establishment. Some employees are working from home and most
offices are only manned by those who must interact with customers. Many
businesses are now shifting to digital. The mode of payment for goods and services
are now contactless in the form of money transfers and mobile payments.

Fast-food chains and restaurants also became aloof as they opened only for delivery
and take-outs. Some allowed dine in but for limited number of guests only.

The mode of transportation could be tricky for the hundreds of thousands of

commuters, especially in Metro Manila. Limiting the number of passengers in trains,
jeepneys and buses will become a challenge for commuters and enforcers alike.
Single mode of transportation such as bicycles become an instant hit. To date, a
number of new cyclists are now plying around the roads bound their jobs, home
and errands.

The “new normal”, thus, will have to deal with a new social and economic
environment and, at the same time, weigh the effects of new protocols. Many new
emerging technologies are also popping to adapt to the new changes. Now we can
imagine, if this pandemic has occurred decades ago, where digital technology is not
born yet.

Technology Foresight Technique used: Scenario Planning

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Why the IATF-EID Team must

include a Technology Manager?
The Inter-Agency Task Force on Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-EID) is a task
force organized by the executive of the Philippine government to respond to affairs
concerning emerging infectious disease in the Philippines.

The IATF-EID was convened in January 2020 to address the growing viral outbreak
in Wuhan, China. In March 25, 2020, the IATF-EID revealed a National Action Plan
(NAP) to slow down the spreading of COVID-19. The NAP was created to implement
and decentralize the system of managing the COVID-19 situation effectively and
efficiently. In addition, the IATF-EID created the COVID-19 National Task Force
headed by Department of National Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana, which
handles the operational command. At the same time, the IATF-EID became the
"policy-making body of operations".

The Chair of the team is the head of Department of Health (DOH) with the following
members coming from Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA), Department of the
Interior and Local Government (DILG), Department of Justice (DOJ), Department
of Labor and Employment (DOLE), Department of Tourism (DOT), Department of
Transportation (DOTr), Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), Department of
Agriculture (DAR) and Department of Budget and Management (DBM).

The consortium of the team is comprised of “experts” in different sectors and

industries that led to craft the NAP. Individual Expert Opinion is present in the
team. In addition, Individual Non-Expert Opinion is also practiced, as the team
from time to time, make online surveys in social media to gage the public opinion
that could help them in crafting the guidelines.

However, it is noticeable that there is no member coming from the Information

Technology (IT) industry which could have been Department of Information and
Communications Technology (DICT) or Department of Science and Technology –
Advanced Science & Technology Institute (DOST-ASTI) that could have proposed
and include the new and emerging technologies in National Action Plan (NAP) to
fight the COVID-19 virus.

It is interesting to note that South Korean and Vietnam have effectively stopped
the spread of virus in their countries because of the technologies implemented to
track and avoid the infected citizens.

Technology Foresight Technique used: Individual Expert Opinion,

Individual Non-Expert Opinion
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References
• https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus#tab=tab_1
• https://www.history.com/topics/middle-ages/pandemics-timeline
• https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/creativedestruction.asp
• https://www.geospatialworld.net/blogs/innovative-apps-support-philippines-fight-against-covid-
19/
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inter-Agency_Task_Force_on_Emerging_Infectious_Diseases
• https://www.esquiremag.ph/politics/news/miriam-santiago-pandemic-bill-a00293-20200330
• https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/story/2020-04-13/coronavirus-bill-gates-ellen-
degeneres-ted-talk
• https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/25/coronavirus-bill-gates-predicted-pandemic-in-2015/
• https://english.alarabiya.net/en/variety/2020/03/25/Bill-Gates-predicted-a-coronavirus-like-
pandemic-five-years-ago-We-re-not-ready-