HISTORICAL BACKGROUND:

The British Parliament passed a law called the India Independence Act on July 18, 1947 ending the British rule in India.
By mid-August, the British government recognized India and Pakistan as independent nations.

Relationship between the two states have been defines by the violent partition of British India in 1947. Both engaged in a
military confrontation across the de facto border in Kashmir, a disputed region which id claimed by both countries and
large parts of which are controlled by each country. (Slater; Masih, 2019)

The partition of British India came about in the aftermath of World War II, when both Great Britain and British India were
dealing with the economic stresses caused by the war and its demobilization. It was the intention of those who wished for
a Muslim state to come from British India to have a clean partition between independent and equal “Pakistan” and
“Hindustan” once independence came.

After the dissolution of the British Raj in 1947, two new sovereign nations were formed—the Dominion of India and
the Dominion of Pakistan. The subsequent partition of the former British India displaced up to 12.5 million people, with
estimates of loss of life varying from several hundred thousand to 1 million (Metcalf & Metcalf, 2006).  India emerged as
a secular nation with a Hindu majority population and a large Muslim minority, while Pakistan with a Muslim majority
population and a large Hindu minority later became an Islamic Republic (web.archive.gov, 2010) although its constitution
guaranteed freedom of religion to people of all faiths (Cavendish, 2006).

The actual division of British India between the two new dominions was accomplished according to what has come to be
known as the 3 June Plan or Mountbatten Plan. It was announced at a press conference by Mountbatten on June 3, 1947,
when the date of independence was also announced which is August 15, 1947.

The partition itself should have resulted in peaceful relations as said by a leading politician Mohammed Ali Jinnah, leader
of the All India Muslim League and leader of the Indian National Congress. As the Hindu and Muslim population were
scattered unevenly in the whole country, the partition of British India into India and Pakistan in 1947 was not possible
along religious lines.

The plan has a main point which involves the Sikhs, Hindus and Muslims in Punjab and Bengal legislative assemblies
would meet and vote for partition, then these provinces are to be divided. The fate of North West Frontier province and
Sylhet district of Assam was to be decided by a referendum. However, the separate independence for Bengal was ruled
out and a boundary commission is to be set up in case of partition. Yet within British India, the border between India and
Pakistan (Radcliffe Line) was determined by a British Government-commissioned report prepared under the chairmanship
of a London barrister, Sir Cyril Radcliffe.

Soon after their independence, India and Pakistan established diplomatic relations but the violent partition and numerous
territorial claims would overshadow their relationship. Since their Independence, the two countries have fought  three
major wars, one undeclared war and have been involved in numerous armed skirmishes and military standoffs.
The Kashmir conflict is the main center-point of all of these conflicts with the exception of the Indo-Pakistan War of
1971 and Bangladesh Liberation War, which resulted in the secession of East Pakistan (now Bangladesh).

There have been numerous attempts to improve the relationship—notably, the Shimla summit, the Agra summit and
the Lahore summit. Since the early 1980s, relations between the two nations soured particularly after the  Siachen conflict,
the intensification of Kashmir insurgency in 1989, Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests in 1998 and the 1999 Kargil war.
Certain confidence-building measures — such as the 2003 ceasefire agreement and the Delhi–Lahore Bus service – were
successful in de-escalating tensions. However, these efforts have been impeded by periodic terrorist attacks. The  2001
Indian Parliament attack almost brought the two nations to the brink of a nuclear war. The 2007 Samjhauta Express
bombings which killed 68 civilians (most of whom were Pakistani) was a crucial point in relations. Additionally, the  2008
Mumbai attacks carried out by Pakistani militants resulted in a severe blow to the ongoing India-Pakistan peace talks
(latimes.com, 2009).

The state of Jammu and Kashmir, which had a predominantly Muslim population but a Hindu leader, shared borders with
both India and West Pakistan. The Prince of Jammu and Kashmir was the Maharaja Hari Singh, great-grandson of the
man who purchased the area from the British Government in 1846. Although most of his subjects in Kashmir were
Muslims, Hari Singh was a Hindu.

India and Pakistan wanted to get a hold of Kashmir because it is an integral part of the state- formation and nation
building process in both countries. Pakistan wanted Kashmir due to its predominantly Muslim population while its loss will
provide them the deprivation of land links with its most important Asian Allies and threaten its presence in strategically
vital regions on the borders of Afghanistan and China. India, on the other hand, wanted Kashmir to strengthen its secular
foundations and image.
The Indo-Pakistan War of 1947-1948 was known as the first Kashmir War fought between India and Pakistan over the
princely state of Kashmir and Jammu from October 21, 1947 to December 31, 1948. On October 22, 1947, Muslim tribal
militias started after armed tribesmen from Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province invaded Kashmir in October 1947.
Hari Singh made a plea to India for assistance, and help was offered provided he signs up as an instrument of Accession
to India. (Instrument of Accession is a legal document executed by Marajah Hari Singh, ruler of the princely state of
Jammu and Kashmir, on December 26, 1947. By executing this document under the provisions of the Indian
Independence Act of 1947, Hari Singh agreed to accede to the Dominion of India.

However, on November 27, 1948- December 31, 1948, the Pakistanis decided to end the war and there was a UN
intervention and it arranged a cease-fire. Both countries agreed upon the laid out resolution number 4 by the UNCIP of
August 13, 1948 and was adopted by the UN by 1949. This negotiation required the Pakistanis to withdraw its forces, both
regular and irregular, while allowing India to maintain minimum strength of its forces in the state to preserve law and
order. On compliance to these conditions, a plebiscite was to be held to determine the future of the territory.

Indo-Pakistan war of 1965 was the second conflict between the two countries over the status of the state of Jammu and
Kashmir wherein the war lasted five weeks resulting in thousands of casualties on both sides and ended in a United
Nations mandated ceasefire. It is generally accepted that the war began following the failure of Pakistan’s “Operation
Gibraltar” which was designed to infiltrate and invade Jammu and Kashmir.

Operation Gibraltar happened on August 1965 between 26, 000 and 33,000 Pakistani soldiers crossing the Line of Control
dressed as Kashmiri locals headed for various areas within Kashmir. This was hatched by the officer in command of the
region, Major-General Akhtar Hussain Malik giving its order to infiltrate and invade Jammu.

The Line of Control is a dotted line on the map of South Asia that bisects the Jammu and Kashmir region representing its
contested status between India and Pakistan. About 800 kilometers long, the LoC, which is also known as the Ceasefire
Line, originates from the River Tawi near Jammu and ends at snow-clapped mountains in Kargil. It is amongst one of the
most heavily militarized separation barriers of the world. On the ground, it is a fenced boundary entangled with several-
meters-high double-row barbed wire passing through valleys and hillocks, mountains, and rivulets. Apart from the barbed
wire, Indian military has installed floodlights, surveillance equipment, seismic imaging devices, and audio sensors to
monitor any movement in the area. These gadgets are in addition to a round-the-clock patrol maintained by Indian Border
Security Forces (BSF) personnel. On September 6, 1965, India crossed the International Border on the Western front
making an official beginning of the war.

There has been involvement of other nation between the war of India and Pakistan. The U.S-Pakistani relations had been
consistently positive. The U.S Government looked to Pakistan as an example of a moderate Muslim state and appreciated
Pakistani assistance in holding the line against communist expansion by joining the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization
(SEATO) in 1954 and the Baghdad Pact (later renamed as the Central Treaty Organization, or CENTO) in 1955.
Pakistan’s interests in these pacts stemmed from its desire to develop its military and defensive capabilities, which were
substantially weaker than those of India. Both the United States and the United Kingdom supplied arms to Pakistan in
these years. Pakistan and U.S had signed an Agreement of Cooperation in 1959 under which the U.S agreed to take
“appropriate action, including the use of armed forces” in order to assist the Government of Pakistan at its request.

But then, following the start of the view that the conflict was largely Pakistan’s fault and therefore, US cut all military
supplies to the country. However, Pakistan did receive significant support from Iran, Indonesia and People’s Republic of
China. In 1965 war with India, Pakistan received support from Indonesia, Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia which consists of
six naval vessels, jet fuels, guns, and financial support. China also became a patron for Pakistan and gave Pakistan $60
Million in development assistance in 1965.

After Pakistani troops invade Kashmir, India moved quickly to internationalize the regional dispute. It asked the United
Nations to revise its role in the First India-Pakistan War and end the current conflict. The Security Council passed
Resolution 2111 on September 20 calling for an end to the fighting and negotiations on the settlement of the Kashmir
problem, and the United States and the United Kingdom supported the UN decision by cutting off arms supplies to both
belligerents. This ban affected both belligerents, but Pakistan felt the effects more keenly since it had a much weaker
military in comparison to India. The UN resolution and the halting of arms sales had an immediate impact. India accepted
the ceasefire on September 21 and Pakistan on September 22.

On September 20, the Security Council passed Resolution 211 calling for an end to the fighting and negotiations on the
settlement of the Kashmir problem. The United States and the United Kingdom supported the UN decision by cutting off
arms supplies to both belligerents. The ceasefire alone did not resolve the status of Kashmir, and both sides accepted the
Soviet Union as a third-party mediator. Negotiations in Tashkent concluded in January 1966, with both sides giving up
territorial claims, withdrawing their armies from the disputed territory. Nevertheless, although the Tashkent agreement
achieved its short-term aims, conflict in South Asia would reignite a few years later.
The Prime Minister of India and the President of Pakistan having met at Tashkent and having discussed the existing
relations between India and Pakistan, hereby declares their firm resolve to restore normal and peaceful relations between
their countries and to promote understanding between their peoples. They consider the attainment of these objectives of
vital importance for the welfare of the 600 million people of India and Pakistan.

Indo-Pakistan War of 1971 is also called as the Bangladesh Liberation War in 1971 which is a conflict between the
traditionally dominant West Pakistanis and the majority East Pakistanis. Awami League leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman
presented the Six Points to the President of Pakistan and claimed the rights to form the government. The leader of the
Pakistan People’s Party, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, refused to yield the premiership of Pakistan to Mujibur, President Yahya Khan
called the military, dominated by West Pakistanis, to suppress dissent in East Pakistan. The Pakistan army conducted a
widespread genocide against the Bengali population of East Pakistan.

The Indian government repeatedly appealed to the international community, but failing to elicit any response, Prime
Minister Indira Gandhi on March 27, 1971 expressed full support of her government for the Independence struggle of the
people of East Pakistan.

There has been an Agreement on Bilateral Relations between the Government of India and the Government of Pakistan
which is also called Simla Agreement of July 2, 1972. The government of India and the Government of Pakistan are
resolved that the two countries put an end to the conflict and confrontation that have marred their relationships and
worked for the promotion of a friendly and harmonious relationship and the establishment of durable peace in the sub-
continent, so that both countries may henceforth devote their resource and energies to the pressing talk of advancing the
welfare of their people.

Indo-Pakistan war of 1999 is also known as the Kargil conflict that took place between May and July of 1999 in the Kargil
districts of Kashmir and elsewhere along the Line of Control. The cause of the war was the infiltration of Pakistani soldiers
and Kashmiri militants into positions on the Indian side of the LoC. The ambushing of an Indian Patrol team led by Captain
Saurabh Kalia, who acted on a tip-off by a local shepherd in the Batalik sector, led to the exposure of the infiltration. The
Government of India responded with Operation Vijay, a mobilization of 200, 000 Indian troops.

The Pakistanis sought American help in de-escalating the conflict and President Bill Clinton refused to intervene until
Pakistan had removed all forces from the Indian side of the Line of Control. The fighting has ceased on July 26. The
Lahore Declaration signed by the Prime Minister of India and Pakistan on February 21, 1999 reaffirms India and
Pakistan’s commitment to find a peaceful resolution to the issue of Jammu and Kashmir. Each side pledged to “take
immediate steps for reducing the risk of accidental or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons and discuss concepts and
doctrines with a view to elaborating measures for confidence building in the nuclear and conventional fields, aimed at the
prevention of conflict.”

WALTZ’ MULTI-LEVEL ANALYSIS: India-Pakistan

SETTLEMENT:

There are different ways to resolve the conflict that has been revolving around India and Pakistan. The two states should
consider the plight of the people of Kashmir. Instead of fighting over it, they should help in the rehabilitation and
reconstruction of Kashmir and it has to commence with the India-Pakistan cooperation that grants autonomy to Kashmir. It
would be desirable for both of the countries to actively develop people-to-people contacts through inter-societal rapport
and engage in the projects of development cooperation in crucial sectors like power and consolidating trade and
investment-related ties.

The relatively unexplored area of trade and development cooperation has immense potential to open up fresh avenues
toward inter-state and inter-societal ties of cordiality, built around mutual benefit, between the two countries. Through this
development cooperation, the outstanding controversial issues of Kashmir question could get solved, in the long run.

CORRELATES OF WAR:

Pp= (C+E+M) x (S+W)

Where:
Pp- Perceived Power
E- Economic capability
M- Military capability
S- Strategy (coherent planning)
W- Will (fighters)
C- Population and Territory (as critical mass)

PERCIEVED POWER

INDIA – One of the most powerful countries in the world considering current economy, military, political and soft
power. It is an economic powerhouse in the world. Indian military secured 4 th in the world ranking with the GFP power
index rating of 0.1661 (0.0000 being perfect).

PAKISTAN – Pakistan’s military is the 13th most powerful amongst 25 armies in the world, as reported by
Business Insider. With a total population of 201,995,540, Pakistan has military personnel amounting to 919,000. Its total
aircraft, fighter aircraft and naval assets are 951, 301 and 197 respectively. Pakistan has 2,924 combat tanks.
Furthermore, it allocates $7 billion towards its defense budget.

ECONOMIC CAPABILITY

INDIA – The world's fourth-largest economy. It produced $9.4 trillion in goods and services in 2017. But it has a
long way to go to beat the top three: China, with a production worth $23.1 trillion, the European Union with $19.9 trillion,
and the United States with $17.4 trillion. India had rapid growth despite the Great Recession. It grew 6.7% in 2017, 7.1%
in 2016 and 8% in 2015. From 2008 through 2014, it grew between 5% and 11%. That phenomenal growth rate has
reduced poverty by 10% in the last decade. India has a mixed economy. Half of India's workers rely on agriculture, the
signature of a traditional economy. One-third of its workers are employed by the services industry, which contributes two-
thirds of India's output. The productivity of this segment is made possible by India's shift toward a market economy. Since
the 1990s, India has deregulated several industries. It's privatized many state-owned enterprises, and opened doors to
foreign direct investment.

India's Strengths:

India is an attractive country for outsourcing and a cheap source of imports. Its economy has these five
comparative advantages:

1. The cost of living is lower than in the United States. Its gross domestic product per capita is $7,200, half that of
China or Brazil. This is an advantage because Indian workers don't need as much income since everything costs
less.
2. India has many well-educated technology workers.
3. English is one of India’s official languages. Many Indians speak it. This, combined with the high level of education,
attracts U.S. technology and call centers to India. For example, an Indian call center employee only costs $12 per
hour. That's almost half the American counterpart of $20 an hour. According to the Technology Manufacturing
Corporation, more than 250,000 call center jobs, as a result, were outsourced to India and the Philippines
between 2001 and 2003.
4. India’s 1.3 billion people come from a wide range of economic and cultural backgrounds. This diversity can be
strength or a challenge. Socioeconomic status is largely determined by geography. India’s three main regions
each have distinct class and education divisions. Annually, 11 million people leave the rural areas to live in the
cities. Most of them are young and educated. They seek a higher quality of life.
5. The profitable Indian film industry is called "Bollywood." It's a portmanteau of Bombay, now called Mumbai, and
Hollywood. Bollywood makes twice the number of movies Hollywood makes. The most popular actor in the world
is India's Shah Rukh Khan. In 2016, Bollywood contributed $4.5 billion to India's GDP. It generates less revenue
than Hollywood’s $51 billion only because its ticket prices are much lower. On the plus side, Bollywood films cost
less to make: $1.5 million on average versus $47.7 million in Hollywood.

These comparative advantages mean great opportunities for American business. Foreign direct investment in Indian
companies could be very profitable. The Indian middle class is almost 250 million people, bigger than the U.S. middle
class. It will continue to drive India's consumer spending and economic growth.

In addition to FDI, India has seen more than 100 initial public offerings in the last 18 months. Private equity funding
grew in 2012 and 2013, a trend that is expected to continue. Energy, health care, industry, and materials have been the
top four sectors. While inbound mergers and acquisitions deals have declined in the last year, outbound deals have
increased substantially in the emerging markets in the Middle East, Asia, Africa and South America. These deals are
driven by depressed valuations due to the recent recession.

PAKISTAN – The economy of Pakistan is the 23th largest in the world in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), and
42nd largest in terms of nominal gross domestic product. Pakistan has a population of over 212 million (the world's 6th-
largest), giving it a nominal GDP per capita of $1,357 in 2019, which ranks 154th in the world and giving it a PPP GDP per
capita of 5,839 in 2019, which ranks 132th in the world for 2019. However, Pakistan's undocumented economy is
estimated to be 36% of its overall economy, which is not taken into consideration when calculating per capita income.
Pakistan is a developing country and is one of the Next Eleven countries identified by Jim O'Neill in a research paper as
having a high potential of becoming, along with the BRICS countries, among the world's largest economies in the 21st
century. The economy is semi-industrialized, with centres of growth along the Indus River. Primary export commodities
include textiles, leather goods, sports goods, chemicals, carpets/rugs and medical instruments.

Growth poles of Pakistan's economy are situated along the Indus River; the diversified economies of Karachi and
major urban centers in the Punjab, coexisting with lesser developed areas in other parts of the country. The economy has
suffered in the past from internal political disputes, a fast-growing population, mixed levels of foreign investment. Foreign
exchange reserves are bolstered by steady worker remittances, but a growing current account deficit – driven by a
widening trade gap as import growth outstrips export expansion – could draw down reserves and dampen GDP growth in
the medium term. Pakistan is currently undergoing a process of economic liberalization, including privatization of all
government corporations, aimed to attract foreign investment and decrease budget deficit. In October 2016, foreign
currency reserves crossed $24.0 billion which has led to stable outlook on the long-term rating by Standard & Poor's. In
2016, BMI Research report named Pakistan as one of the ten emerging economies with a particular focus on its
manufacturing hub.

In October 2016, the IMF chief Christine Lagarde confirmed her economic assessment in Islamabad that Pakistan's
economy was 'out of crisis' The World Bank predicted in 2016 that by 2018, Pakistan's economic growth will increase to a
"robust" 5.4% due to greater inflow of foreign investment, namely from the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. As of May
2019, the growth rate has been revised and the IMF has predicted that future growth rates will be 2.9%, the lowest in
South Asia. According to the World Bank, poverty in Pakistan fell from 64.3% in 2002 to 29.5% in 2014. The country's
worsening macroeconomic position has led to Moody's downgrading Pakistan's debt outlook to "negative".

In 2017, Pakistan's GDP in terms of purchasing power parity crossed $1 trillion. By May 2019, the Pakistani rupee had
undergone a year-on-year depreciation of 30% vis-a-vis the US Dollar.

MILITARY CAPABILITY

MILITARY: In 2018, India allocated four trillion rupees ($58bn), or 2.1 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), to
support its 1.4 million active troops, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

Last year, Pakistan spent 1.26 trillion Pakistani rupees ($11bn), about 3.6 percent of its GDP, on its 653,800 troops. It
also received $100m in foreign military assistance in 2018. Between 1993 and 2006, more than 20 percent of Pakistan's
annual government expenditure was spent on the military, according to estimates from the Stockholm International Peace
Research Institute (SIPRI).

The military accounted for 16.7 percent of government spending in 2017, it said.

By comparison, India's military spending as a percentage of its government expenditure remained under 12 percent
during the same period, according to SIPRI. It was 9.1 percent in 2017.

Missiles and nuclear weapons are present where both nations have ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear
weapons.

India has nine types of operational missiles, including the Agni-3 with a range of 3,000km to 5,000km, according to the
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington.

Pakistan's missile programme, built with Chinese assistance, includes mobile short- and medium-range weapons that can
reach any part of India, CSIS said. The Shaheen 2 has the longest range, up to 2,000km. In 2011, Pakistan confirmed
that it had acquired tactical nuclear weapon capability, wherein smaller nuclear warheads are attached to short-range
missiles (50-100km) as a deterrent against relatively small-scale conventional Indian attacks. The addition of tactical
nuclear weapons to Pakistan's arsenal lowers the threshold for nuclear weapon use, giving Pakistan what its military
terms "full spectrum deterrence" against India's conventional forces. The weapons were developed to counter India's
"Cold Start" doctrine, which envisions a shallow incursion into Pakistani territory without breaching its previous nuclear
threshold. Pakistan has 140 to 150 nuclear warheads, compared with India's 130-140 warheads, according to SIPRI.

ARMY: India has a 1.2 million-strong army, supported by more than 3,565 battle tanks, 3,100 infantry fighting vehicles,
336 armoured personnel carriers and 9,719 pieces of artillery, according to IISS.

Pakistan's army is smaller, with 560,000 troops backed by 2,496 tanks, 1,605 armoured personnel carriers, and 4,472
artillery guns, including 375 self-propelled howitzers.
Despite its larger army, the capability of India's "conventional forces is limited by inadequate logistics, maintenance and
shortages of ammunition and spare parts", IISS said in a report this month.

AIRFORCE: With 127,200 personnel and 814 combat aircraft, India's air force is substantially larger but there are
concerns about its fighter jet fleet.

India's defense plans require 42 squadrons of jets, about 750 aircraft, to defend against a two-pronged attack from China
and Pakistan. With older Russian jets like the MiG-21, first used in the 1960s, retiring soon, India could have 22
squadrons by 2032.

Pakistan has 425 combat aircraft, including the Chinese-origin F-7PG and American F-16 Fighting Falcon jets. It also has
seven airborne early warning and control aircraft, three more than India. The (Pakistan) air force is modernizing its
inventory while improving its precision-strike and ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) capabilities.

NAVY: India's navy consists of one aircraft carrier, 16 submarines, 14 destroyers, 13 frigates, 106 patrol and coastal
combatant vessels, and 75 combat-capable aircraft. It has 67,700 personnel, including marines and naval aviation staff.

Pakistan, which has a significantly smaller coastline, has 9 frigates, 8 submarines, 17 patrol and coastal vessels, and 8
combat-capable aircraft.

STRATEGY

INDIA – Cold Start is a military doctrine that was developed by the Indian Armed Forces for use in a possible war
with Pakistan. It involves the various branches of India's military conducting offensive operations as part of unified battle
groups. The doctrine is intended to allow India's conventional forces to perform holding attacks to prevent a nuclear
retaliation from Pakistan in case of a conflict. The first Integrated Battle Group is expected to be structured by the end of
August 2019. The doctrine, known as Cold Start, deviated from the defense posture that India’s military had employed
since independence in 1947. "The goal of this limited war doctrine is to establish the capacity to launch a retaliatory
conventional strike against Pakistan that would inflict significant harm on the Pakistan Army before the international
community could intercede, and at the same time, pursue narrow enough aims to deny Islamabad a justification to
escalate the clash to the nuclear level".

Drawing on the experience of the 1967 Six-Day War as well as the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971, Indian defense
planners envisioned a new doctrine that would involve limited, rapid armored thrusts, with infantry and necessary air
support. As per Cold Start promulgation, offensive operations could begin within 48 hours after orders had been issued.
Such a limited response time would enable Indian forces to surprise their Pakistani counterparts. Operations would
involve armored spearheads, launched from forward positions in Punjab and Rajasthan.

The plan emphasizes speed and overwhelming firepower: armored formations and accompanying infantry would
advance into eastern Pakistan, with limited goals in terms of distance and in terms of duration. The plan reportedly has a
significant air support component. From the Indian perspective, the plan has the added virtue of accentuating Pakistani
discomfiture and angst, which theoretically has some deterrent value.

PAKISTAN – The Nuclear doctrine of Pakistan is a theoretical concept of military strategy that promotes
deterrence by guaranteeing an immediate "massive retaliation" to an aggressive attack against the state. Pakistan's
foreign minister Shamshad Ahmad had warned that if Pakistan is ever invaded or attacked, it will use "any weapon in its
arsenal" to defend itself.

The doctrine is divided into four different thresholds before the weapons would become operationally activated
during a conventional or nuclear war with an aggressor state.[4] In the event of war, for instance war between India and
Pakistan, the Indian Armed Forces' numerical superiority and large stock of conventional weaponry is most likely to
overwhelm Pakistan. Therefore, in a deteriorating situation, where an Indian military aggression is more likely to penetrate
through Pakistan's defenses (or has already breached the main defense line causing a major setback to overall defense)
which cannot be reversed by conventional means, the government would be left with no other option except to use
nuclear weapons to stabilize the situation, with a first strike.

The rationale behind the doctrine is to prevent India from any military intervention (both conventional and surgical)
that would lead to the disintegration of the country, as it did in 1971 (see Indo-Pakistani war of 1971). The South Asian
affairs expert, Professor Stephen P. Cohen terms the strategy of Pakistan an "option-enhancing policy".[1] According to
sources, the doctrine entails a stage-by-stage level of advancement in which the nuclear threat is increased at each step
to deter India (or any aggressor state) from attacking:
 1. A public or private warning.
2. A demonstration atomic test of a small atomic device on its own soil.
3. The use of (a) nuclear weapon(s) on Pakistan's soil against foreign attacking forces.
4. The use of (a) nuclear weapon(s) against critical but purely military targets on foreign soil, probably in thinly
populated areas in the desert or semi-desert, causing the least collateral damage. This is possibly to prevent
retaliation against Pakistani cities.

Levels of threshold: The doctrine is not part of the Minimum Credible Deterrence principle of Pakistan, however, the
doctrine is integrated the nuclear dimension into its defense principle. According to the International Institute for Strategic
Studies (IISS), the definition of the four potential thresholds has been refined from the first thresholds which were
mentioned by officials at the Pakistan nuclear command authority in late 2001.

Spatial threshold - The military penetration of Indian Armed Forces into Pakistan on a large scale may elicit a
nuclearized massive retaliation, if and only if the Pakistan Army is unable to stop such intervention. For instance, many
analysts, including some Indians, believe that the Indus Valley— the "lifeline" of Pakistan— is one of many other "red
lines" that Indian forces should not cross. The capture of key objectives in this crucial northeast–southwest axis might well
provoke nuclear retaliation by Pakistan.

Military threshold - The complete knockout or comprehensive destruction of a large part of the Pakistan Armed
Forces, particularly and most importantly the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), could lead to a quick nuclear response if
Islamabad believed that it was losing the cohesiveness of its defense and feared imminent defeat. A senior ranking PAF
officer maintained that "orders given to PAF (and its missile command) are identical to the guidelines given to the NATO
commanders during the Cold war crises". This criterion is even more important for the Pakistan Armed Forces because of
its critical role in maintaining the country's stability. As noted above, an attack on a nuclear installation has also been
posited as a threshold. According to the PAF, this threshold would also be breached by the use of chemical or biological
weapons against Pakistan, and would provoke a massive retaliation.

Economic threshold - This level implicitly and explicitly refers for the countermeasure operations of the Pakistan
Navy. Economic strangulation and economic blockade is also a potential threat to Pakistan, if the Navy is unable to
counter it effectively (for example, see operations: Trident and Python in 1971). This primarily refers to a potential Indian
Navy blockade of Sindh Province and coastal cities of Balochistan Province, or the stoppage or significant reduction of
Pakistan's share of water from the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab Rivers under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty. It could also
refer to the capture of vital arteries such as the Indus.

Political threshold - Finally, Pakistan's geostrategists, game theorists, political strategists and planners suggest
that a destabilization of the country by India could also be a nuclear threshold if Islamabad has credible reasons to believe
that the integrity of the country were at stake. Stated scenarios are political destabilization or large-scale internal
destabilization which the Pakistan Marines (along with the paramilitary command) were unable to stabilized effectively.
One example would be encouraging the breakaway of one or more of Pakistan's provinces (as in during the Bangladesh
Liberation War).

WILL: INDIA - The primary mission of the Indian Army is to ensure national security and national unity, defending the
nation from external aggression and internal threats, and maintaining peace and security within its borders. It conducts
humanitarian rescue operations during natural calamities and other disturbances, like Operation Surya Hope, and can
also be requisitioned by the government to cope with internal threats. It is a major component of national power alongside
the Indian Navy and the Indian Air Force. The army has been involved in four wars with neighboring Pakistan and one
with China. Other major operations undertaken by the army include: Operation Vijay, Operation Meghdoot and Operation
Cactus. Apart from conflicts, the army has conducted large peace time exercises like Operation Brass tacks and Exercise
Shoorveer, and it has also been an active participant in numerous United Nations peacekeeping missions including those
in: Cyprus, Lebanon, Congo, Angola, Cambodia, Vietnam, Namibia, El Salvador, Liberia, Mozambique, South Sudan and
Somalia.

PAKISTAN – The primary objective and its constitutional mission is to ensure the national security and national unity of
Pakistan by defending it against external aggression or threat of war, and internal threat by maintaining peace and
security within its land borders by requisitioning it by the federal government to cope with internal threats. During the
events of national calamities and emergency, it conducts humanitarian rescue operations at home as well as participating
in the peacekeeping missions mandated by the United Nations, most notably playing a major role in rescuing the trapped
U.S. soldiers in Somalia in 1993 and Bosnian War in 1992–95.

POPULATION AND TERRITORY

 INDIA – India's 2019 population is estimated at 1.37 billion based on the most recent UN data. India, located in
South Asia, is bordered by the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea, and the Indian Ocean, and is also bordered by the
countries of Pakistan, Bhutan, China, Nepal, Myanmar (formerly Burma), and Bangladesh. India is the world's 7th largest
country by area and the 2nd most populous country with more than 1.3 billion residents. Area 3,287,590 km²

PAKISTAN - Last collected in the year 2011, the population, at that point, stood at a reported 176,745,364. This
number came from a report that was published by the World Bank in 2012. Back in 2001, the estimated population was
around 142.5 million; the country, at that point, became the seventh most populated country in the entire world. Over the
next ten years, the estimated population grew by about 34 million people. Today, the estimated Pakistan population is
approximately 216.57 million, making it the 5th most populous country. Area 881,912 km²

CONCLUSION

After the comparison between two countries namely India and Pakistan, there is a reason why India had won the
four wars/conflicts against Pakistan. India is rank fourth in the world’s strongest or most powerful countries. If we are
talking about conventional war India will undoubtedly defeat Pakistan due to the fact the they have the advantage of
military personnel, military weapons and overall power but if we add nuclear weapons to the equation, Pakistan might
have a chance in winning a war against a powerhouse in that of India because they have been developing nuclear
missiles to supplement the lack of other military equipment and to also counter the nuclear weapon of India and its
virtually strong military capabilities.

Even though Pakistan would win the war against India with the use of nuclear weapons, the end result would be a
disadvantage for Pakistan because of the destruction that the war would bring to them. Pakistan is just a developing
country wherein it cannot finance a long term war unlike that of India that is already a developed country wherein it has
the means to aid itself when a war ends. Pakistan’s best option is to have a dialogue with India to pursue peace so that
further conflicts will not arise any longer and for both states to have prosperity in terms of economy, religion, politics etc.

CURRENT NEWS AND UPDATES:

The Express News headlines Pakistan warning to ‘stop terror camps’ or India will enter the region to ‘destroy’ them.
Pakistan was warned to stop terrorist attacks or else the Indian army will enter the contested Jammu and Kashmir region.
The governor of Jammu and Kashmir, Satya Pal Malik said that India would enter the country to go “inside and destroy”
the terrorist camps if the attacks continued. The Indian army confirmed that several terrorists have been killed and there
are about six to ten Pakistani military members that were killed during the recent attack. Indian army has targeted the
launch pads since they have the coordinates for them; this decision was led by the attack in Kashmir region killing 44
Indian paramilitaries. Following the attack, the India Prime Minister called an airstrike on a camp run by the militant
organization known as Jaish-e-Mohammed (McLoughlin, October 21, 2019).

The Washington Post titles an article India and Pakistan trade fire in Kashmir, killing nine. India and Pakistan exchanged
fire across the line dividing the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir on Saturday and Sunday killing nine civilians and
soldiers, according to authorities of both countries saying it was also one of the deadliest sequences this year at the Line
of Control. The barrage came amid increased tension between the nuclear-armed rivals (Slater, October 20, 2019).

The Economic Times web article names an article “Pakistan Army rejects India’s claim of destroying terror comps on
PoK”. Pakistan’s military spokesman Major-General Asif Ghafoor rejected Indian Army’s assertion that it targeted at least
three terror camps in PoK. He also said that India is welcome to take any foreign diplomat or media to the site to prove its
claim. Pakistan claims that “there are no camps let alone targeting those.” Such false claims by the Indian Army are being
made to suit vested domestic interests. This is against professional military ethos,” says Major General Asif Ghafoor (PTI,
2019).