British-Irish Relations

International Relatins

ABPS 2B

TF 11:30 – 1:30

Princess Hanah Bell II

Angelica Joy Mayola

Joaned A. Pingkihan

Estefany Ferrer Cabalona Sapla

Christian Venzon

Henrick Yson
 Waltz’ Multilevel Analysis: British-Irish
Level II Level I
Level III

SPREAD OF
Defeat of Spanish Plantation ROME
CHRISTIANITY
Expeditionary of Ulster
Force
Lordship HENRY II
Rise of of
Gaelic Ireland
Society
Unification of England
HENRY VIII
and Ireland in one
Crown

Poor
End of the Relation of Sack of Oliver
Civil War British-Irish Drogheda Cromwell

Winston Churchill

Struggle for End of Christian

Battle of William of
supremacy Ireland, rise of James II
Aughrim Orange
in Europe Protestant Ireland
British
Protestant
Domination
American
Revolution
Uprising Revolutionary
French Wolfe Tone
of 1798 Ideals
Revolution

Act of Failure of the

Union Uprising

Daniel O’
Irish
Irish Communities Connel
Question
worldwide

British Great IRA

Colonial Famine
Policies
 Troubles

Easter
Unification Uprising of
Rising
of Ireland Easter Rising

Public
Support Defeat and
Change Execution

Irish
End of Free
British rule State

Bloody Civil Rights British or

Public Sunday Movement UK
Outrage

Increase in
IRA Activities

Ceasefire and
US
Negotiations
involvement

Belfast or Good
Friday
Agreement
Historical Background

An island people the Irish may be, yet the history of Ireland has never been insular or inward-looking. Instead, it is a story
of a people profoundly aware of the wider world – its threats, its possibilities and its advantages.

In addition, while the English and British connection will always remain key to any reading of Irish history, an array of other
powers, including Spain, France, the papacy and the United States, have left their mark on the nation. In its turn, Ireland
has reached out to influence the world: playing a part in Europe’s bitter power struggles; influencing the evolution of
British parliamentary democracy; and helping to shape the growth of the United States into a global superpower.

Here are just a few key moments that have helped to define the course of Irish history…

1. The coming of the gospel to Ireland

The spread of Christianity in fifth-century Ireland is inextricably linked in the public mind with the iconic figure of Patrick:
miracle-working missionary, canny politician and snake-banishing national saint. Yet the historical facts are rather different
– for Christianity had in fact taken root in Ireland well in advance of Patrick’s mission. The Irish were in the habit of
plundering the long western seaboard of Roman Britain in search of booty – and the first Christians in Ireland, therefore,
were most likely Britons carried across the sea as slaves.

In AD 431, Rome dispatched a bishop to minister to these “Irish believing in Christ” – and this was not Patrick but the
shadowy Palladius, an aristocratic Briton or Gaul who has been elbowed by Patrician hagiographers out of the Irish story.

The development of Christianity was fundamental to the evolution of an Irish cultural identity, led to the creation of such
glories of early Irish art as the Book of Kells and the Ardagh Chalice, and helped to maintain the flame of learning and
education in Europe during the chaotic centuries that followed the fall of Rome.

2. The arrival of Henry Plantagenet in Ireland

In the summer of 1167, a small band of Anglo-Norman adventurers sailed from Pembrokeshire and landed on the County
Wexford coast. Within two years, the Norse ports of Wexford, Waterford and Dublin had fallen; and the Gaelic Irish were
mustering against these potent newcomers on the Irish political scene.

In October 1171, Henry Plantagenet – King Henry II – himself arrived in Ireland, anxious to underscore his authority, and
to add this promising new dominion to his extensive Anglo-French empire.

It was a seismic moment in Irish history, marking the establishment of the Lordship of Ireland: in effect, the first English
colony. Three decades later, Henry’s successor John lost control of Normandy – after which the attention of the English
crown became even more focused on its Irish possessions.

The Lordship itself survived for almost 400 years – in the process enduring the ravages of a Scots invasion, the Black
Death and an indigenous Irish resurgence – until Henry VIII proclaimed himself king in 1541, thus formally uniting England
and Ireland under one crown.

3. The Plantation of Ulster

In the spring of 1606, a wave of Scots settlers – farmers, craftsmen, artisans – crossed the narrow waters of the North
Channel and came ashore at the port of Donaghadee in County Down. This was the beginning of the Plantation of Ulster:
a systematic British and Protestant settlement of the northern half of Ireland – which until this point had remained the most
obdurately Gaelic and Catholic part of the country.

With the defeat of a Spanish expeditionary force at Kinsale in County Cork at Christmas 1601 came the definitive victory
of English military power in Ireland – a fact emphasized by the ‘Flight of the Earls’ in 1607, when a large proportion of
Ulster’s Gaelic aristocracy fled Ireland for the continent. The Plantation set the seal on this new order: by 1640, some
30,000 colonists had arrived in Ulster; and many of the remaining Gaelic landowning families had been expelled from their
lands.
The Plantation represented the onset of a cultural cataclysm for Gaelic society, and marked the beginning of a chaotic
and violent century in Ireland. Most significantly, sectarian tensions became an intrinsic aspect of life in Ulster – with
consequences that continue to be felt to this day.

4. The sack of Drogheda

In August 1649, Oliver Cromwell and his New Model Army landed at Dublin. The Civil War in England had come to an end
with the execution of Charles I, and Cromwell was eager now to settle affairs in Ireland, where anarchy reigned and the
royalist faction retained significant support.

Cromwell marched 30 miles north along the coast to the royalist-held port of Drogheda. By 10 September, the town was
surrounded; on the next day, its walls were breached, and there followed the dreadful sack of Drogheda, in which much of
the town’s population – Catholics and Protestants, English and Irish – were indiscriminately put to the sword.

Later, the town of Wexford was similarly sacked, and by 1660, up to a quarter of the Irish population had died from the
effects of war and disease. The events of these years help to explain why Cromwell, viewed in English history as a
democrat, is remembered in Ireland as a genocidal maniac. One Englishman, however, fully understood the profound
impact of the siege of Drogheda. Winston Churchill remarked that it “cut new gulfs between the nations and the creeds.
Upon all of us there still lies the curse of Cromwell.”

5. The battle of Aughrim

The Battle of Aughrim was fought on the flat landscapes of County Galway in July 1691. It epitomized the final defeat of
Catholic Ireland, and the beginning of an uncontested Protestant ascendancy in Ireland. The battle, however, was also
part of a much larger geopolitical process that encompassed a ferocious struggle for supremacy in Europe between the
French crown and a grand alliance of England, Holland and a cluster of other powers. William of Orange had usurped the
British crown in 1689, forcing his father-in-law, James II, to flee to France and on to Ireland. As a result, Ireland became
the scene of a series of battles, the ripples from which would be felt across Britain and Europe.

The Williamite Wars were fought at Derry/Londonderry, Enniskillen and on the fords of the river Boyne, where William
emerged victorious in a clash with James. But it was at Aughrim that Ireland’s remaining Catholic elite, together with its
French allies, was cut down in the boggy fields. Here, both the fate of the country and William’s hold on the throne were
settled, once and for all.

6. An Argument on Behalf of the Catholics of Ireland

Wolfe Tone stands as one of Ireland’s most compelling and charismatic national leaders. Born in Dublin in 1763, his
political vision was sharpened as he watched revolutionary events unfold first in America and then France. He dreamt of a
radical, non-sectarian Irish republic – and his 1791 pamphlet An Argument on Behalf of the Catholics of Ireland was
envisaged as a necessary first step, calling as it did for the emancipation of Ireland’s disenfranchised Catholic majority.

The pamphlet drew the attention of many: soon, the Society of United Irishmen was established in Belfast by a group of
(equally disenfranchised) Presbyterian merchants and manufacturers who thrilled to Tone’s revolutionary vision. This was
a moment when disparate elements in Irish society looked beyond the confines of sectarian politics and towards the
politics of a wider world. Yet the failure of the Rising of 1798 – and the sectarian element that once more rose to the
surface during that violent Irish summer – ensured that such a vision never became a reality.

Tone himself committed suicide in November 1798, while held in military custody. Two years later, the Act of Union bound
Britain and Ireland even closer together.

7. Daniel O’Connell and Catholic Emancipation

By the 1830s, a new leader had emerged onto the national stage. Daniel O’Connell was as Catholic as Wolfe Tone had
been atheist. His vision was of an Ireland in which Catholicism and national identity were folded into one; and he
understood the importance of enlisting the mass of the population as a means of achieving his vision of the repeal of the
Act of Union.

O’Connell probed the limits of constitutionality, appreciating how the threat of popular unrest could be deployed to achieve
his ends. His Catholic Association, for example, rapidly became a disciplined mass movement working towards the initial
goal of Catholic Emancipation. This duly came about in 1829, as the British government recognised the possibility of
anarchy in Ireland – and took fright.

And yet O’Connell never achieved his dream of repeal. His legacy instead lies in the lessons he presented on the
possibilities inherent in mass politics – lessons absorbed by observers abroad as well as at home. Furthermore, he never
forgot the opportunities offered by a modern media and a shrinking world. After O’Connell, the Irish Question was debated
not only in Ireland and in Britain – but with passion too in America.

8. The Great Famine

In September 1845, as the first potatoes were being lifted in fields across Ireland, word began to spread of a disease
affecting the new crop. The potatoes were coming out of the ground rotten and putrid. Blight was spreading across the
countryside. The famine would continue until 1849 – and its effects upon Irish society were cataclysmic.

Of a pre-famine population of some eight million, over a million died of hunger and famine-related diseases – and for Irish
nationalists, it became a truism that “the Almighty sent the potato blight but the English created the famine”.

It was perhaps inevitable that the collective trauma brought about by the years of hunger would be distilled and heaped, in
rage and grief, onto the heads of the British government. The truth was that government inaction, willfulness and
incomprehension did indeed exacerbate the effects of the famine – although these facts did not, as claimed by many Irish
nationalists, imply an intention to create famine in order to diminish Ireland.

A century later, the Irish population was still in decline. Emigration was a wound that simply could not be staunched, and
the consequent growth of a vast Irish diaspora abroad changed forever the relationship between Ireland and the rest of
the world.

9. Fifteen leaders of the Easter Rising are executed

In the course of nine days in May 1916, 15 men were escorted from their dank cells at Dublin’s Kilmainham Gaol to the
stonebreakers’ yard on the edge of the prison to be executed by firing squad.

The men were leaders of the Easter Rising, which had exploded across central Dublin in late April. One of them, the
labour activist James Connolly, had had his ankle injured by a sniper’s bullet and was executed while being strapped to a
chair. The Rising had been defeated in a matter of days. Much of central Dublin was left shattered by fire, gunfire and
bombardment, and most of the casualties of the fighting were civilians.

As a result, public opinion was not especially supportive of the rebels – but the decision of the British authorities to
execute the ringleaders proved decisive, altering the public mood overnight. The 15 men became heroes and political
opinion was radicalised. The scene was now set for five tumultuous years that resulted in the end of British rule across
most of Ireland, and the establishment in 1922 of the Irish Free State.

10. Bloody Sunday

On 30 January 1972, a civil rights march was winding slowly from the western suburbs of Derry towards the Guildhall
Square in the city centre. Such marches were commonplace: since 1968, Northern Ireland had become accustomed to
the sight of public demonstrations demanding equal rights for the province’s Catholic minority; and an end to Unionist-
majority rule. On this day, however, the march ended in tragedy as British soldiers opened fire on the crowd. Soon, 13
men lay dead; a 14th died later of his injuries.

The army claimed that IRA operatives in the crowd had fired first, and the resulting public inquiry accepted this version of
events. Bloody Sunday was by no means the most violent day of the Northern Ireland Troubles – but the fact that the 14
men had been killed by the forces of the state itself lent a ghastly distinction to the event. The effects of Bloody Sunday
continued to be felt for years. Catholic public opinion was inflamed, and support for the IRA and other terrorist groups
grew apace.

Thirty eight years would pass before a new British government inquiry exonerated the victims, finding that the army’s
actions had been “unjustified and unjustifiable”.
 11. The Good Friday Agreement

For many, a solution to Northern Ireland’s 20th-century Troubles seemed impossible. The taproots of the conflict
appeared sunk too deeply into a history of sectarian bitterness and economic rivalry, political differences were
insurmountably great, and the wider context of grievance between the British and Irish states added yet further layers of
difficulty to an already fraught situation.

Throughout the years of the Troubles, however, conversation and negotiation had continued – usually under deeply
unprepossessing circumstances – and ultimately a political solution was indeed found. In April 1998, the Belfast or ‘Good
Friday’ Agreement was signed, setting out a framework for future political progress in Northern Ireland. The key to
progress had been the internationalisation of the discussions – and in particular the close involvement of the Bill Clinton
White House in the protracted negotiations.

The political process in Northern Ireland has continued to be dogged by failures of trust, communication and negotiation.
But there is a sense that the past is now definitively past, and that there can be no return to the years of violence.

More Specific Timeline

August 1969

 The British Government first sends troops to Northern Ireland in what it describes as a “limited operation” to
restore law and order after three days of violence in the predominantly Catholic Bog side area of Londonderry

February 1971

 Gunner Robert Curtis becomes the first British soldier to die when he is shot dead by the IRA.

January 1972

 On “Bloody Sunday”, 30 January, 13 civilians are shot dead by the British Army during a civil rights march in
Londonderry.

• Six held over 'IRA plot to kill Prince Charles'

• Charles's pilgrimage to spot where Mountbatten was murdered

March 1972

 The Stormont Government is dissolved and direct rule imposed by Westminster.

October 1974

 Pubs are bombed in Guildford as the IRA expands its campaign to mainland Britain. A month later, there are more
pub bombings in Birmingham, killing 21 people.

July 1976

 Christopher Ewart Biggs, the British Ambassador to Ireland, is murdered by a car bomb in Dublin.

March 1979

 Airey Neave, a confidant of Margaret Thatcher’s, is murdered by an Irish National Liberation Army car bomb
which explodes as he leaves the Houses of Parliament.

August 1979

 Lord Mountbatten, the Queen’s cousin, dies when a bomb planted by the Provisional IRA explodes on his boat in
Sligo.
April 1981

 Bobby Sands, one of the republicans on hunger strike in the Maze prison, is elected to Parliament. He dies a
month later.

October 1984

 A bomb explodes at the Grand Hotel in Brighton, where Margaret Thatcher, the Prime Minister, is staying during
the Conservative Party conference.

November 1985

 Margaret Thatcher and Garret FitzGerald, the Irish Taoiseach, sign the Anglo-Irish Agreement, paving the way for
co-operation between the two governments.

November 1987

 11 civilians are killed by a Provisional IRA bomb at a Remembrance Day service in Enniskillen.

July 1990

 Ian Gow, the Conservative MP, is assassinated by a Provisional IRA car bomb.

April 1998

 The Good Friday Agreement is signed and is hailed as the end of the Troubles. It establishes the Northern Ireland
assembly, with David Trimble as its first minister.

August 1998

 In the greatest single atrocity of the Troubles, 29 people are killed by a car bombing in Omagh planted by a
dissident splinter group, the Real IRA.

October 2002

 Sinn Fein’s offices at the Stormont parliament are raided by police investigating an alleged IRA spy ring. The
Government says the peace process cannot go on with the IRA “half in, half out”.

August 2004

 Gerry Adams, the Sinn Fein leader, says republicans must be prepared to see the IRA disbanded as part of a final
settlement.

January 2005

 Robert McCartney, a Catholic former bouncer, is killed outside a bar in Belfast by a gang including IRA members.
His family’s campaign for justice focuses on the IRA’s criminal links.

September 2005

 International monitors confirm the IRA has completed the disposal of its weapons.

November 2006

 Michael Stone, the loyalist murderer, suspends the first meeting of Northern Ireland’s transitional assembly when
he walks into the parliament building armed with a handgun, a knife, and a “viable” bomb.
May 2007

 The Democratic Unionist Party enters a historic power-sharing government with Sinn Fein. Its leader, Ian Paisley,
is first minister, with Sinn Fein’s Martin McGuinness as his deputy.

March 2009

 Republican paramilitaries shoot dead two British soldiers at their barracks near Antrim and wound four other
people.

May 2011

 The Queen and the Duke of Edinburgh make a state visit to Ireland, the first since the 1911 tour by George V, Her
Majesty’s grandfather.

Belfast Agreement
Good Friday Agreement, also called Belfast Agreement or the Agreement, accord reached on April 10, 1998, and ratified
in both Ireland and Northern Ireland by popular vote on May 22 that called for devolved government in Northern Ireland.
By the mid-1960s the demographic majority that Protestants enjoyed in Northern Ireland ensured that they were able to
control the state institutions, and these powers were at times used in ways that disadvantaged the region’s Roman
Catholic minority (though the extent of discrimination in Northern Ireland remains a matter of intense debate). An active
civil rights movement emerged in the late 1960s, and incidents of communal violence ensued, which led the British
government to send troops to assist in quelling the urban violence. Bombings, assassinations, and rioting between
Catholics, Protestants, and British police and troops continued into the early 1990s. A tentative cease-fire was called in
1994, but sporadic violence continued.
Multiparty talks—involving representatives of Ireland, various political parties of Northern Ireland, and the British
government—resumed in June 1996 and eventually culminated in the signing in Belfast on April 10, 1998 (that year’s
Good Friday), of an agreement that called for the establishment of three “strands” of administrative relationships. The first
strand provided for the creation of the Northern Ireland Assembly, which would be an elected assembly responsible for
most local matters. The second was an institutional arrangement for cross-border cooperation on a range of issues
between the governments of Ireland and Northern Ireland. The third called for continued consultation between the British
and Irish governments. In a jointly held referendum in Ireland and Northern Ireland on May 22, 1998—the first all-Ireland
vote since 1918—the agreement was approved by 94 percent of voters in Ireland and 71 percent in Northern Ireland.
However, the wide disparity between Catholic and Protestant support in Northern Ireland (96 percent of Catholics voted in
favour of the agreement, but only 52 percent of Protestants did) indicated that efforts to resolve the sectarian conflict
would be difficult.
The most severe evidence of division came just four months after the agreement was signed, in August 1998, when a
splinter group of the Irish Republican Army (IRA), the Real IRA, killed 29 people in a bombing in the town of Omagh.
Moreover, the IRA’s failure to decommission its weapons delayed the formation of the Northern Ireland Executive (a
branch of the Northern Ireland Assembly), in which Sinn Féin, the political wing of the IRA, was to have two ministers.
On December 2, 1999, the Republic of Ireland modified its constitution, removing its territorial claims to the whole of the
island of Ireland, the United Kingdom yielded direct rule of Northern Ireland, new agreements between Ireland and the
United Kingdom and between Ireland and Northern Ireland entered into force, and, symbolically, Irish Pres. Mary
McAleese had lunch with Queen Elizabeth II.
Brexit Connection

 How did we get here?

The UK voted to leave the European Union on June 23rd 2016 by a majority of 51.9 to 48.1 per cent, with a turnout of just
under 72 per cent. This set the UK on course to leave the EU, but left all the details of its exit still to be decided. The
timetable was set the following March 29th, when British prime minister Theresa May took the formal step, required under
EU law to start the exit process, of triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Under the two-year process the UK was due
to leave the EU on March 29th, 2019 but that date was postponed after a meeting of the European Council until October
31st, 2019. However, the UK can leave earlier if it ratifies the Brexit withdrawal agreement before that.
The talks between the UK and EU started in June 2017 and focused on the details of the UK’s withdrawal, which must be
set down in a formal, legal agreement. Outline agreement was reached on what the UK will pay the EU after departure –
the so-called exit bill or divorce bill – and on the mutual recognition of the rights of UK citizens in the EU and EU citizens
in the UK.
In November 2018, agreement was also reached on a backstop for the Irish border, a way to provide a guarantee that
there be no hard border on the island of Ireland no matter what future trade arrangements are agreed between the EU
and UK. This cleared the way for a draft withdrawal agreement and final talks on a political declaration outlining the
principles for future negotiations. This draft needs to be ratified politically by both sides. The process was subsequently
thrown into crisis after Theresa May failed on a number of occasions to secure support from the House of Commons for
her deal.
If the withdrawal agreement is passed, a so-called transition period, a kind of standstill in current arrangements, would
apply from the leaving date until December 2020 or 2022 if it is extended. This is to allow future trade arrangements and
the wider ongoing relationship between the EU and UK to be negotiated. The withdrawal agreement also contains a
provision known as the backstop, but more on that later.
Boris Johnson succeeded May as Conservative leader and British prime minister in July 2019 after she failed to break the
deadlock over Brexit and her withdrawal agreement with the EU was rejected three times in parliament. Johnson’s
election threw the manner of the UK’s exit by the next deadline of October 31st in doubt given that during his campaign to
become leader he described the withdrawal agreement as a “dead letter” and demanded that the backstop be removed
from the withdrawal agreement. Brussels and Dublin have insisted the withdrawal agreement would not be renegotiated
and the backstop would not be removed from the agreement.
In his first speech as British Prime Minister Johnson described the backstop as “anti-democratic” and said that he was
convinced he could do a deal with the EU without having to have checks at the Border.

 The key changes

For a country to leave the EU is unprecedented - and the extent of the complications has slowly become evident in the
last couple of years. EU membership is a central part of the economy and society of all its members and unscrambling
this is very complex, before account is even taken of sketching out how the two sides will relate to each other in future.
Much of the discussion has been about the UK’s membership of the EU trading bloc. There are two elements to this. First,
the UK is part of the EU customs union. This is a free trade area under which allows goods to circulate freely through the
EU. Part of this is a commitment by all members to impose the same import tariffs – or taxes – on goods entering from
outside the EU.
The UK is also part of the EU single market, the system of rules and regulations which allow free movement of goods,
services, people and capital. Together, membership of the customs union and single market allows goods to move freely
across the EU and also for free trade in services like banking. Common EU regulations also underpin trade in a host of
different areas, for example pharmaceuticals and food.
The single market also allows free movement of people across the EU. The UK is also involved in common international
policies co-ordinated at EU level, notably in foreign policy and defence and in trade deals with other countries.

 What’s a no-deal scenario?

If there is no withdrawal agreement, then the UK would leave the EU in a so-called “no-deal” Brexit on October 31st,
2019, which could be chaotic as barriers to trade would go up overnight and there would be uncertainties in areas ranging
from aviation to pharmaceuticals to co-operation in nuclear regulation. There was some speculation that the EU and UK
would work together to try to avoid the worst of the chaos but as a no-deal Brexit has become more and more likely
preparations have intensified in both Dublin and Brussels on how the border between the Republic and Northern Ireland,
and other arrangements, would be managed.
If a withdrawal agreement is finalised, then talks move on to how the two sides will relate in future in areas such as foreign
policy, defence and security and, crucially for Ireland, trade.

 What's the Backstop?

The UK’s departure from the EU means Northern Ireland is leaving the bloc too so checks would be required along the
499-kilometre Irish Border as different trade rules would apply north and south after Brexit. The Border in Ireland will
become the only land border between the UK and the EU after Brexit.
The 1998 Belfast Agreement laid the foundation for Northern Ireland’s peace process with many all-island rules and
institutions. Neither side wants the return of border checks because of the risk to peace whereby a physical border
infrastructure would be considered a potential target for paramilitaries.
The Backstop is an insurance policy that the EU and UK have agreed to include in the withdrawal agreement to avoid this
happening. Both sides see it as a last resort to be triggered in the event of no better solution being found to avoid a hard
border in an EU-UK trade deal. But there is a sequencing problem: a withdrawal treaty must be agreed before a trade
deal, hence the need for the backstop first.

 The economic impact

The economic impact of Brexit is negative, for both the UK, Ireland and the rest of the EU. The biggest impact will be in
the UK itself and in Ireland, its closest trading partner. For the UK, any trade arrangement reached after Brexit – barring
full membership of the EU trading bloc, which the UK has ruled out – will be less favourable than current arrangements.
Economists say that any new trade opportunities elsewhere will not make up for losses in trade with the EU. Weaker
sterling since Brexit has already cut the purchasing power of UK consumers and uncertainty has hit investment, with
growth estimated to be 1 to 2 per cent per annum lower over the couple of years.
For Ireland, growth remains strong and the main short-term impact has been via a weaker sterling exchange rate, which is
good if you’re going to the UK to buy a second-hand car but bad if you’re an exporter to the UK market.
The main threat to Brexit comes from barriers to exports to the UK and also delays and higher prices for importers of UK
goods to Ireland. Forecasters have estimated that in a harder version of Brexit, where the UK leaves the EU trading bloc,
the Irish economy could be 4 to 7 per cent lower in a decade’s time, with most of the hit in the first five years. A no-deal
Brexit means the economic effect would be more severe and happen more quickly.
Key dates:

 August 25th-27th, 2019: G7 summit of world leaders in Biarritz, France.

 September 22nd-25th, 2019: Britain's Labour Party holds its annual conference in Brighton
 September 29th-October 2nd, 2019: Conservative Party holds its annual conference in Manchester
 October 8th, 2019: The last practical polling date on which a British prime minister could hold a general election
or second referendum before the next Brexit deadline.
 October 17th-18th, 2019: EU leaders meet for the final European Council summit before the UK’s extension is
due to expire.
 October 31st, 2019: The six-month extension to the “Article 50” process expires. If no other agreement is
reached, the UK will leave on this date in a scenario known as a no-deal Brexit.
 July 1st, 2020: Under the draft Brexit agreement, the UK and EU can, before this date, request an extension to
the transition period "of up to one or two years to the transition period".
 December 31st, 2020: If the EU and UK have agreed a Brexit treaty and agree a future trading relationship, this
is the earliest date by which the transition period will end.
 December 31st, 2022: the date the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier has proposed extending the Brexit
transition to in order to allow the EU and UK negotiate a trading deal. Under the withdrawal agreement this is the
latest date on which the transition period can end. If it were extended until 2022 it would mean that the UK would
stay within the single market and customs union for six and a half years after the Brexit vote.
Correlates of War (Yson Version) II. Aircrafts and Helicopters
1 = below 300
War Capability Value System 2 = 300 - 600
3 = 600 above
Pp = (C+E+M) x (S+W) III. Naval Ships
1 = below 30
Pp = Perceived Power Projection 2 = 30 - 50
3 = 50 above
C = Population
IV. Specialized Forces
E = Economic Capability 1 = below 2
2=2-5
M = Military Capability 3 = 5 above
V. Nuclear Arsenal
S = Strategy 3 = Tactical Nuke
D. Strategy (10)
W = Will I. Military Bases
1 = below 50
A. Population (15) 2 = above 50
I. Total population II. Air Bases (indl. Intl. Airports)
1 = below 500,000 1 = below 100
2 = 500,000 – 1M 2 = above 100
3 = 1M – 500M III. Naval Yard
4 = 500M – 1B 1 = below 10
5 = above 1B 2 = above 10
II. Active Military Personnel IV. State Threats
1 = below 500,000 1 = above 3 states
2 = 500,000 – 1M 2 = below 3 states
3 = 1M – 500M V. Alliances and Treaties part of
4 = 500M – 1B 1 = below 2
5 = above 1B 2 = above 2
III. Reserve Forces E. Will (10)
1 = below 300,000 I. Total of A.II, A.III, & B.V
2 = 300,000 – 450,000 1 = below 1M
3 = 450,000 – 600,000 2 = 1M – 1.5M
4 = 600,000M – 750,000 3 = 1.5M – 2M
5 = above 750,000 4 = 2M – 2.5M
B. Economic Capability (15) 5 = above 2.5M
I. Roads and Railway II. Percentage of Trust to Gov’t
1 = 30% - 50% 1 = below 30%
2 = 50% - 80% 2 = 30% - 50%
3 = 80% - 100% 3 = 50% above
II. Military Industries III. Literacy Rate
1 = below 5 1 = below 50%
2 = 5 - 10 2 = above 50%
3 = 10 above
III. Defense Budget
1 = below 10B
2 = 10B – 50B
3 = above 50B
IV. Manufacturing Industries
1 = below 10
2 = 10 - 20
3 = 20 above
V. Work Force
1 = below 1M
2 = 1M – 500M
3 = 500M above
C. Military (15)
I. Utility and Armored Vehicles
1 = below 200
2 = 200 - 500
3 = 500 above
 Corresponding Perceived Power
Below 100 Dependent Power
100 – 300 Developing Power
300 – 500 Industrialize Power
500 – 700 Regional Power
Above 700 Super Power
 CORRELATES OF WAR
FACTORS IRELAND UNITED KINGDOM
A. Population
I. Total 5,068,060 3 66.04M 3
Population
II. Active Military 9000 1 233,000 1
Personnel
III. Reserve 2500 1 83,000 1
Forces
B. Economic Capabilities
I. Roads and 10% 1 80% 2
Railways
II. Military 0 1 54 3
Industries
III. Defense 1B 1 49B 2
Budget
IV. Manufacturing 20 1 140 3
Industries
V. Work Force 2,366,779 2 29,948,413 2
C. Military
I. Utility and 124 1 5188 3
Armored Vehicles
II. Aircrafts and 16 1 681 3
Helicopters
III. Naval Ships 8 1 76 3
IV. Specialized 1 1 9 3
Forces
V. Nuclear 0 1 215 3
Arsenal
D. Strategy
I. Military Bases 59 2 156 2
II. Air Bases (indl. 40 1 460 2
Intl. Airports)
III. Naval Yard 2 1 18 2
IV. State Threats 1 2 6 1
V. Alliances and 1 1 24 2
Treaties part of
E. Will
I. Total of A.II, 2,377,779 4 30,264,413 5
A.III, & B.V
Percentage of 44% 2 42% 2
Trust to Gov’t
Literacy Rate 99% 2 99% 2
Computation Pp = (C+E+M) x (S+W) Pp = (C+E+M) x (S+W)
Pp = (5+6+5) x (7+8) Pp = (5+12+15) x (9+9)
Pp = (16) x (15) Pp = (32) x (18)
Pp = 240 Pp = 576

Corresponding Developing Power Regional Power

Perceived Power

Corresponding Perceived Power

Below 100 Dependent Power
100 – 300 Developing Power
300 – 500 Industrialize Power
500 – 700 Regional Power
Above 700 Super Power