Pressing Questions/Problems

• A sofisticação da Administração vale a pena?

– Sucesso X teoria 1
– Procedimentos e práticas X Intuição e experiência

• Para onde vai a Administração de Projetos?

– Simplificação, lean, agile, PMI(USA), IPMA (EU), APM (UK), etc ... 2
• O que é necessário para encarar o futuro?
– Quais skills
– PMP? Outro? 3
 “GESTÃO DE PROJETOS”

O Gerente de Projetos e o Futuro da Gestão de

Projetos
orlando.cattini@fgv.br
Administramos bem nossas empresas?
The Bloom and Van Reenen – MIT (2007) approach
1

1) Quantifying: use scoring grid from a consulting firm

• Scores 18 monitoring, targets and incentives practices
• ≈45 minute phone interview of manufacturing plant managers
(hospitals, retail, schools)

2) Truth: use “Double-blind”

• Interviewers do not know the company’s performance
• Managers are not informed (in advance) they are scored
• All interviews run from a single location with rotation by country

3) Getting data: a variety of tricks

• Introduced as “Lean-manufacturing” interview, no financials
• Official Endorsement: Bundesbank, PBC, CII & RBI, etc.
• Run by 75 MBAs types (loud, assertive & business experience)
4) Population: sample randomly medium and large firms (100-5000
employees) from population databases across countries

3
Não deixe de visitar: www.worldmanagementsurvey.com
Management practices and performance

4
Productivity log(sales/employee)
2
0
labp
-2
-4
-6

1 2 3 4 5
management
Management score 5
US management practices score highest on
average, with developing countries lowest
US
Germany
Sweden
Japan
Canada
France
Italy
Great Britain
Australia
Northern Ireland
Poland
Republic of Ireland
Portugal
Brazil
India
China
Greece

2.6 2.8 3 3.2 3.4

mean of management
Average Country Management Score 6
The Brazilians and Greeks overscored
the most, the US and French the least
Brazil
Greece
India
Portugal
China
Republic of Ireland
Northern Ireland
Australia
Canada
Italy
Great Britain
Poland
Germany
Japan
Sweden
France
US

0 .5 1 1.5
Self score (normalized to 1 to 5 scale)mean of gap
– Management score
Multinationals appear to always be well managed,
consistent with selection and most trade models
Foreign multinationals
Domestic firms
US
Japan
Sweden
Germany
Canada
Australia
Italy
Great Britain
France
Poland
Northern Ireland
Republic of Ireland
India
China
Portugal
Brazil
Greece

2.4 2.6 2.8 3 3.2 3.4

Average Management Score 8
Finally, education is highly correlated with better
management, but no idea on causation
80 Non-managers
Managers
60
Percent with a degree
40
20
0

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Management score (rounded to nearest 0.5) 9
Growing Demand for Project Managers 2

Fonte: Antonio Nieto-Rodriguez (2012): The Focused Organization, Gower, London

PMDI* (Project Management Deployment Index)

País PMDI (2007)

Canada 515
USA 428
UK 368
Alemanha 200
Japão 165
França 47
Brasil 29
Itália 29
China 24
México 10
Rússia 9

* PMDI = no. Profissionais certificados PMP/ População – fonte: Project Management CIRCA 2025 David I.
Cleland e Bopaya Bidanda
PROCEDIMENTOS FUNÇÃO DA ORGANIZAÇÃO

Fonte: J.G. Geraldi /The balance between order and chaos in multi-project firms:
A conceptual model International Journal of Project Management 26 (2008)
O QUE É COMPLEXIDADE PARA PROJETOS?

Características que definem a Complexidade dos Projetos

Múltiplos stakeholders; interesses diversos

Ambiguidade de requisitos, recursos e fases

Influência política/ outras autoridades

Desconhecimento de requisitos, recursos, fases

Mudanças (dinâmica) da governança do Projeto

Influências externas significativas

Uso de tecnologia nova para a organização

Uso de tecnologia ainda não totalmente desenvolvida

Influências interpessoais e/ou sociais significativas

Ambiente altamente regulado

Ciclo do Projeto excede o das tecnologias relevantes

Fonte: Navigating Complexity – PMI Pulse of the Profession, September 2013

 PROJETOS: COMPLEXIDADE INCLUI
COMPLEXIDADE DINÂMICA

Fonte: HERTOGH, M; WESTERVELD, E – Playing with Complexity - Management and Organization of Large Infrastructure Projects – Rotterdam, 2010
NOVAS FRONTEIRAS DA GESTÃO DE PROJETOS

Fonte: Moira Alexander – CIO | Jan 7, 2016

NOVOS REQUISITOS IMPLICAM NOVO MODELO

Fonte: Saynisch, M. (2010). Mastering complexity and changes in projects, economy, and society
via project management second order (PM-2) Project Management Journal, 41(5), 4–20
A EVOLUÇÃO PARTIU DO PM FOCADO
NO PRODUTO (PM 1ST ORDER)

Fonte: Saynisch, M. (2010). Mastering complexity and changes in projects, economy, and society
via project management second order (PM-2) Project Management Journal, 41(5), 4–20
O PM-2 É UM NOVO MODO DE PENSAR,
ENVOLVENDO CULTURA DA ORGANIZAÇÃO
WORLD 1 = Técnicas e métodos tradicionais
(PMBOK e 75% da literatura)
WORLD 2 = Reconhece complexidade e enfoque
sistêmico (sucesso além do triângulo)
WORLD 3 = Comportamento humano – novas
habilidades pessoais do gestor (ICB4)
WORLD 4 = Agile + gestão de portfolio (ainda a
desenvolver) = MUPEC (multiproject firms at edge of chãos)

Fonte: Saynisch, M. (2010). Mastering complexity and changes in projects, economy, and society
via project management second order (PM-2) Project Management Journal, 41(5), 4–20
 O GESTOR DOS PROJETOS
3

• Trend 1: The laser-focus on strategy over projects

• Trend 2: The move away from operational

hierarchies to leverage employee strengths

• Trend 3: The increased need for accountability and

social responsibility

• Trend 4: More emphasis on softer skills, not just

technical training

• Trend 5: Remote work, PM tools & security

Fonte: Moira Alexander – CIO | Jan 7, 2016

THE 5 BIGGEST PROJECT MANAGEMENT
TRENDS SHAPING 2017/2018
PUBLISHED JANUARY 3RD, 2017 BY RACHEL BURGER IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

• 1. Agile project management will gain acceptance outside of

software development.

• 2. There will be a pivot that emphasizes nontraditional

collaboration tools over traditional project management
software.

• 3. “NPD PPM” won’t just be jargon anymore.

• 4. Emotional intelligence will be the most-desired skill for

new project managers.

• 5. Project management certification requirements will begin

to dwindle in job postings.

NDP = New Product Development

PPM = Project Portfolio Management
Projected new job demand for project
management roles by 2020
Fonte: INDUSTRY GROWTH FORECAST - PMI-2010