Labour Force

and
Employment
2019-20
The Labour Force

 All persons in a given population

who furnish the supply of labour for
the production of goods and
services during a specific time or
reference period.
The Labour Force (LF)
 Who are the individuals in the labour force?
All persons between a specific age set by law
usually. In Jamaica all persons 14 years and
older are potential members of the labour
force.
 Retirement age:
 14-60 females
 14-65 males
 LF consist of persons who are working, seeking
work or available for work.
The Labour Force
 Defined by STATIN:
- Persons 14 years and over who were “employed in
any form of economic activity for one hour or
more during the survey week” and
- Persons who were unemployed, that is, “although
had no job, were looking for work during the
reference week” or available for work.

 This definition is based on the standards and

guidelines prescribed by the ILO.
The Labour Force

 The labour force includes both the employed

and the unemployed
 Measured using the following principles:
 Activity Principle
 Gainfully Occupied Population principle
Activity Principle
 Focuses on what the person was actually doing
during the specific reference period of the survey:

Persons who were

economically active
Seeking work /or willing and
able to accept work.
Questions asked in the
Labour Force Survey
 Did you do any work during the week
ending…?
A. yes
B. no
 What were you doing most of the time during
the week ending…?
A. working
B. looking for work
C. at school full-time
D. with job not working
E. at home
F. incapable of working
Employed

 Those who work for a wage or salary in

cash or in kind
 Those who are formally attached to a job
but not at work
 Self employed persons
 who are working for cash or in the family
business (also have unpaid family workers),
 Personsworking for at least one hour during
the survey week. Prior to 1973 the cut-off was
eight hours
Unemployed
Definition – refers to persons who are:
 without work, currently available for work
and actively seeking work (job-seekers)
 without work, currently available for work
but not seeking work (non job-seekers)
How do we to identify those who
are looking for work (jobseekers)?
 These are persons who:
 Have registered at employment agency
 On call as available for work- nurse at
registered hospital
 Visited a job site ( office, construction site,
factory etc.)
 Applied in person for a job (school leavers)
 Have written letters of application
 Advertised in the media
 Asked someone (friend, relative, politician or
other) to find a job for you
 Made investigations, with the intention of
starting a business
Gainful occupation
principle
 Good measure of the potential
labour supply
 Helps you to identify level of skilled
persons in the population
Gainfully occupied
population
 Used prior to the adoption of the activity
principle
 More subjective measure
 Based on the classification of the persons who
reported themselves as having an
occupation, profession or trade from which
they earned an income ( cash or kind) or in
which they had assisted in the production of
goods and services, irrespective of if they had
actually worked or sought work during the
reference period.
Limitations of the gainfully
occupied approach
 Does not distinguish between the employed
and unemployed
 Retired persons although not available for
work would have stated their previous
occupation
 Persons now entering the labour force who
did not have an occupation to report would
be excluded
Distinction between the
working age population and
the labour force
 The working age group:
 The 15-64 working age group varies from country to
country
 Includes some individuals who are between the
specified ages but not considered as a part of the
labour force
 Full time students,
 Persons engaged in home duties,
 Physically incapacitated
 Those who retired at an early age
 Some exceptions:
 A full time student attending school and seeking a job
is considered unemployed
 A person working but seeking a better job is employed
 Labour Force Participation
Rate
 This is the labour force as a percentage of the
population 14 years and over

_____Employed + Unemployed __ X 100

Population 14 years and over

Persons 14 years and over who were “employed in any

form of economic activity for one hour or more during
the survey week” and persons who were unemployed,
that is, “although had no job, were looking for work
during the reference week’. See slides 8 and 9.
 Labour force participation rates for Jamaica, April 2015 and 2016

Age group Both 2015 Male Female Both 2016 Male Female

TOTAL 62.4 69.6 55.4 64.8 71.4 59.2

14 - 19 10.0 12.5 7.3 11.8 14.4 9.5

20 - 24 61.8 69.1 54.5 68.8 73.4 64.1

25 - 34 80.2 88.7 72.3 84.8 91.6 78.2

35 - 44 87.1 92.8 82.0 88.1 92.9 82.8

45 - 54 84.4 92.1 76.8 86.5 93.4 80.3

55 - 64 71.9 82.4 61.2 72.3 82.8 62.9

65 and over 29.8 43.5 17.9 28.5 43.5 59.2

STATIN 2016
Youth Labour Force Participation Rates by region and sex,
1991 and 2014

Youth participants – persons 14 – 24 years

Adult participants – persons 25 years and over.
Persons Outside the Labour
Force
 Classified as:
- At school full time
- Did not want to work
- Incapable of working
- Staying home with dependents
- Illness
Individuals 14 years and over who were not
classified as being employed or unemployed

 Full time students,

 Persons engaged in home duties i.e. house wives / house
husbands
 Physically incapacitated persons, usually those who are
mentally or physically disabled to the point that they are
incapable of holding down a job.
 Those who retired, either at an early age or after reaching
the age of retirement.
In many countries, especially those in the developing would,
persons have dual statuses
 A full time student attending school and still
working part-time or full-time is very much a part
of the labour force and can be correctly classified
as employed
Full-time & Part-time
Employment
 Full-time Employment: Persons employed
for 33 hours or more during the survey
reference week.
 Part-time Employment: Persons employed
for 32 hours or less during the week of the
survey reference week.
Categories of working
persons
 Wage/salary workers
 Those who work for commission, tips, for lodging
or any other type of payment cash or kind
 Trainees or apprentices (nurse, tradesman)
 Own a business or farm- usually referred to as
self-employed (including doctor, lawyer ,vendors
to name a few)
 Non- paid/unpaid worker- family business
Persons who are doing work
but are not included in the
category of workers

 Housewives or house husbands

 Persons who did their own gardening,
painting, spring cleaning or other jobs
around their own home
 Volunteers:
 Church, NGOs, community
 The unemployment rate

 Narrow rate :

Unemployed and seeking a job X 100

Employed + Unemployed and seeking a job
 The unemployment rate

 Broad Rate:

Unemployed and seeking a job +

Unemployed but not seeking job_____ X 100
Employed + Unemployed and seeking a job+
unemployed but not seeking job
 Both 2015 Both 2016 Males 2016 Females 2016
2,724,700 2,731,800 1,351,300 1,380,500

d over 2,084,900 2,090,400 1,025,600 1,064,800

1,300,400 1,363,300 732,700 630,600

1,128,500 1,186,900 663,100 523,800
171,900 176,300 69,600 106,700
784,500 727,100 292,900 434,200
86.8 87.1 90.5 83.1
13.2 12.9 9.5 16.9
8.9 8.1 6.1 10.6

on under 14 years 23.5 23.5 24.1 22.9

on 14 years & over 76.5 76.5 75.9 77.1

14 + Outside LF 37.6 34.8 28.6 40.8

f Total Pop. 47.7 49.9 54.2 45.7

f Population 14+ 62.4 65.2 71.4 59.2

54.1 56.8 64.7 49.2

Unemployment rates, 2005-2016
Age group 2005 2008 2010 2016

14-19 37.7 40.7 44.8 44.4

20-24 23.7 24.5 29.8 29.2

25-34 12.0 12.0 13.2 15.1

35-44 9.7 9.3 9.8 11.0
45-54 6.9 6.0 6.6 6.7

55-64 5.4 4.5 5.8 5.4

65+ 4.2 3.6 1.8 3.8
 Oct 2015 Jan 2016 Apr 2016 Jul 2016
BOTH SEXES
Agriculture Hunting Forestry & Fishing 200,500 194,000 204,800 191,200
Mining & Quarrying 6,400 6,400 4,500 4,900
Manufacturing 70,700 73,700 80,600 81,400
Electricity Gas and Water Supply 8,500 8,400 6,800 5,800
Construction 84,100 86,000 94,900 99,600
Wholesale & Retail Repair of Motor
Vehicle & Equipment 226,800 251,100 226,300 233,500
Hotels & Restaurants Services 95,200 87,700 99,400 96,300
Transport Storage and Communication 72,100 73,600 70,700 76,200
Financial Intermediation 23,800 31,200 25,400 23,100
Real Estate Renting & Business Activities 74,600 66,600 75,900 79,700
Public Administration & Defence;
Compulsory Social Security 60,100 52,900 58,300 65,600
Education 70,800 73,500 66,800 65,700
Health & Social Work 33,900 36,200 28,700 29,600
Other Community Social and Personal
Service Activities 65,800 64,400 65,300 70,000
Private Households with Employed
Persons 50,800 54,500 57,700 60,000
Industry Not Specified (Incl. Extra-
Territorial Bodies) 2,700 3,600 2,900 4,300
Unemployment rates by age and sex JA 2016

Age group Male Female

14-19 38.1 56.2

20-24 23.9 35.6
25-34 9.4 21.3
35-44 5.3 16.9
45-54 4.9 8.7
55-64 4.7 6.4
65+ 2.4 6.4
Some Terms to Remember

Child labour:

(a) child aged 5-11years performing 1 hour of

economic work outside the house and 28 hours
of domestic work per week*

(b) child aged 12-14 years performing 14 hour of

economic work outside the house and 28
hours of domestic work per week*
*Source: Convention on the Rights of the Child
6.1% children aged 5-14 employed.8% aged 5-11, 2% 12-14yrs
Source: Jamaica Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2005)
What is the Labour Market?
 The labour market refers to the dynamic interplay
of the demand and supply of human resources in
which workers compete for jobs and employers
compete for workers

Or in other words…
 Where the demand for labour meets the supply of
labour

 The demand side consists of employers (any firm, business or

organization which seeks to employ labour)
 The supply side consists of individuals who seek to offer their
labour to employers
Labour Market Interactions
Labour Force Labour Force
Supply Demand

Labour Market Outcomes

Unemployment
Underemployment

•Involuntary part-time work

•Low wages
•Occupational mismatch
 Factors Contributing to
Labour Force Structure
Population in Population
Base Period of Labour
•Births Force
•Deaths Age (14+)
•Migration in Current
Fertility Period
Changes

Educational Labour LABOUR FORCE

Enrolment Force SIZE and
Non-market sources Participation COMPOSITION
of Income Rates
(remittances,
welfare payments, etc.
Factors related to Labour
Supply
Labour Force Supply

age structure
gender composition
education
training
work experience
attitudes
Factors Related to
Labour Demand and Productivity
Labour Force Demand
(Job Supply)
macro-economic policy
investment
industrial structure
technology
global competitiveness
export processing
gender stereotyping
unionization
labour legislation
public works
organizational factors
illegal activity
social climate
status in employment
Employed labour force
2007-2014
The rural-urban-drift

 Stigma attached to agriculture

 Low wages
 Unavailability of land
 Lack of credit
 Vulnerability to natural disasters
 Poor living conditions and general
infrastructure
 Entertainment
 Social mobility
Reasons for high youth
unemployment in the
Caribbean
 Weak aggregate demand for labour
 Inappropriateness of education and training
 Relative inexperience
 Absence of well functioning vocational
guidance and placement facilities
 Attitudes of young people and their aspirations
concerning work
 New labour market developments-globalization
Context – Trends in Youth
Unemployment Rate by Region
(1997 and 2007)

Source: ILO, Trends Econometrics Model, 2008

Context
 As a result of the global recession, global
unemployment reached the highest
levels on record in 2009
 According to ILO estimates the
unemployment rate in the LAC region has
risen to 8.2 per cent in 2009 from 7.0 per
cent in 2008, resulting in an increase in
the number of the unemployed by
approximately 4 million
Context

 The global recession has made it

increasingly difficult for youth in
particular to find employment
 This has implications for the social
inclusion of youth and for their
medium to long term personal
development
 Among youth there are distinct
segments (male/female,
urban/rural, marginalized/affluent)
and each may be affected in different ways by
national and global conditions
Levels of Unemployment by Education
for Jamaican Youth, April 1998

60

50

40
No secondary
30
1-3 years sec.
20 4+ years sec.

10

0
Males 14-24 yrs Females 14-24 yrs
Growth and Contraction by
Economic Sector, 1991-1998
Sectors which gained Sectors which lost jobs
jobs
Hotels, restaurants and Agriculture
recreation
Social and Community Textile Manufacturing
Construction
Transport Other Manufacturing
Financial and Business
Personal Services Public Administration
Utilities
Importance of Education
Importance of Education
Case for Pursuing
Education
There are several reasons that one may choose to
pursue further studies in this time of economic
uncertainty:

 The need to re-train – for the person who has lost

a job, and sees it as the best time to make a fresh
start, in a new field or if you find yourself in an
occupation that is becoming obsolete

 The scarcity of jobs at the moment – persons who

are finding it difficult to find a job at present, may
consider upgrading their skills and qualifications to
position themselves to take advantage of future
job opportunities
Case for Pursuing
Education
 The need to increase qualifications to
progress – Even persons who are currently
employed may find it beneficial to
upgrade their qualifications to better
equip them for upward career mobility
 Research shows a positive relationship
between educational level and earnings
 The more qualified one is, the more
competitive one can be in the job
market
 Further studies could also assist in
entrepreneurship
 Key Labour Market and Workforce Issues
 Declining labour productivity and total factor
productivity
 Mismatches between supply and demand for labour,
including for priority growth industries
 Poor educational outcomes
 Low levels of certification of labour force
 High levels of migration of tertiary graduates and
skilled workers
 Inadequate social protection systems for workers
 High levels of informality in economy
Pre SARS-CoV-2!
THE FUTURE LABOUR MARKET
 Job change 10 to 14 jobs before age 40
 Lifelong learning at the tertiary institutions
 The top ten jobs in the world in 2010 did not
exist in 2004
 Market becomes saturated,
 Other specialized areas such as computer
innovation, programming, software
development
THE FUTURE LABOUR MARKET
No More Lawyers?

× US Justice Department filed Anti-trust lawsuit against CBS; CBS

legal team spent USD2.2 million on ‘discovery’ (assembling legal
documents)
 Today, e-discovery documents can assemble all the relevant
legal documents for about 5% of the cost. The software does
the analysis, determines relevance and precedence. Inferential
software traces conversations across e-mail, texts, calls and
documents
× Lawyers do conveyance- transferring real estate, shares and
other assets between clients
 Today, software can check titles, do secure transfer and verify
payments
THE FUTURE LABOUR MARKET
No Sales Jobs? Bank Managers?

 Data mining is now widely used in business, in areas

such as retail management, credit risk analysis,
marketing, banking, detection of fraud etc.
 Retailers can use software to see whether customers
who buy product A, buy product B as well. This can help
them to focus their strategies
 Google: credit card spending patterns allow them to
predict with 98% accuracy whether couples are going
to divorce within the next two years
 Risk managers (bank loan, credit cards etc.) will be
redundant
THE FUTURE LABOUR MARKET
The end of factories?

 There will be no need for factories when everyone has a

fabricator that can produce items when needed
 3D printing technology is coming and it is likely to disrupt
every field it touches

The Economist, February 10, 2011

THE FUTURE LABOUR MARKET
The end of academics?

 In 1999, the per capita cost for the 14 million students in the
US higher education classrooms was about US12.5 million per
year, the cost of delivery to online students was about half
that of the classroom model
 So a move to online delivery would have reduced total cost
by US87.5 billion for the year
THE FUTURE LABOUR MARKET
Other Jobs that Will Disappear?

 Secretaries, accountants: replaced by software

 Receptionists: replaced by virtual registration
 Couriers: replaced by better e-document security
 Government bureaucrats: replaced by online systems
 Fighter pilots: replaced by UCAVs
 Computer chip designers: replaced by software
 Jobs that depend on information asymmetries (realtors,
brokers, travel agents): replaced by software
THE FUTURE LABOUR MARKET
 Tertiary institutions - core competency skills;
workforce transition:
 Problem Solving Skills
 Social Networking Skills – Team building trends,
influence network
 Creative Skills – designers, visionaries and
conceptualizers
 Technical Skills – scientists, engineers and
technicians
THE FUTURE LABOUR MARKET
 Logistical Skills – project management
 Thinking skills – critical thinkers and
problem solvers
 Entrepreneurial and Commercial Skills –
network
 Generic Skills – ICT fluent, multi tasking,
network, emotional intelligence