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Science as a candle in the dark

Article · March 2018

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Felix Bast
Central University of Punjab
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FEATURE ARTICLE

In science there is no
belief system. It has
a built-in correcting
mechanism through
which the science
advances every single
day. It is a search for
evidence-based truth.

36 | Science Reporter | March 2018


I
grew up in rural Kerala reading each
morning a well-known Malayalam
newspaper. I remember seeing small
box advertisements on top-corners of
the front page reading something like –
“scientifically prepared magic amulets to
ward off evil spirits”, and so on. Even
after two decades, similar ads can still
be found in many newspapers of Kerala
(and presumably other states as well).
Now, what is science? Simply put,
science is an evidence-based pursuit of
knowledge discovery. So, the question
is how effective the amulet is in warding
off evil spirits. Before answering this
issue, one has to ascertain the validity
of an ‘evil spirit’ or ‘spirit’.
This question evades a fundamental
principle in science known as
‘falsifiability’, put forth first by the
British philosopher of science Karl
Popper. To deem something to be in
the realm of science, statements have
to be testable, claims ‘independently
verifiable’ and falsifiable. According
to Popper, science progresses by the
process of falsification; earlier hypothesis
sequentially is falsified, and this process
leads to the advancement of science.
For example, the hypothesis that Earth
was flat was falsified by Pythagoras
who hypothesised Earth was spherical,
and the heavenly bodies revolve around
the Earth. The concept of geocentric
world was falsified by Copernicus who
hypothesised the Sun is the centre of the
solar system.
Felix Bast
Suppose our earlier advertisement
read the following: “scientifically
prepared magic amulets to make you
rich.” Now, this statement is at least
testable; are the amulets effective in
making someone rich? One can test this
by doing a simple experiment; wearing
it for a month and not wearing for a
month to see whether the person gets
significantly richer. Now the question A 1995 study concluded higher
is what does ‘significantly’ here mean; prevalence of breast cancer in wealthy
if your overall monthly wealth increases countries compared with elsewhere
by 1%, is it significant or not? in the world. Many quickly blamed it
on the sedentary lifestyle of the rich,
To decide in such situations, smart
fast-food culture, obesity, substance
statisticians have come up with various
abuse and so on. The actual reason was
statistical hypothesis tests, which are
the mandatory breast cancer screening
beyond the scope of this article. At
(mammography) in those countries
the end of the experiment and further
because the government could afford
statistical analysis, you might infer that
it there.
the amulet does significantly increase
the overall wealth, and you conclude When you hear stories like “there
that the amulets are effective. This is the are four times more motorcycle accidents
scientific method in a nutshell. than car accidents in India, and therefore
motorcycles are inherently dangerous”,
However, what if you got rich due
you should critically evaluate the claim.
to some other reasons while you were
When you realise that the number of
wearing the amulets? For example, for
motorcycles on Indian roads is more
the simple reason that you know you
than six times that of the cars, you will
are wearing the amulet subconsciously
conclude that motorcycles are in fact less
altered your work habits to work harder
dangerous than cars. A pithy aphorism
and earn higher (this is technically
in statistics is ‘correlation does not imply
called “Hawthorn effect”). It could
causation’.
also be because the Indian Economy
was progressing at a higher rate. An To prove our earlier hypothesis of
unknown, outside variable causing the amulets, we can do the same experiment
effect in our experiment, like the Indian repeatedly, either on the same person at
Economy in this example is known as various periods (longitudinal experiment)
‘confounding’ in statistics. or on different persons at the same time
M arch 2018 | Science Reporter | 37

(cross-sectional experiment). Various
ingenious scientists with help from
statisticians have tested and retested
the efficacy of such amulets, and the
conclusion from all those experiments
is that amulets do not work.
If they do not work, how can
someone claim that these were prepared
‘scientifically’? Claiming something to
be scientific and factual in the absence
of evidence is known as pseudoscience.
This pseudoscience is exactly what
scientists and science popularisers like
Carl Sagan, Richard Dawkins, Michael
Shermer, Isaac Asimov, Douglas Adams,
Yash Pal, PM Bhargava and so on were
against – the ignorance that comes in
a white-lab coat of an experimental
scientist and masquerades before the
public as ambassadors of real science
while evading Popper’s falsifiability and
appealing to the public through emotions
and anecdotes.
How about claims such as
astrology, palmistry, numerology,
tarot card reading and so on being
scientific? To this list we can also add
Yeti, Bigfoot, UFOs, magnetotherapy,
reflexology, faith-healing, vastu, Extra
Sensory Perception, Astral Projection,
clairvoyance, transcendental meditation,
and many others.
38 | Science Reporter | March 2018
The list is exhaustive and is swiftly
expanding. For example, the anti-vaccine
campaign at many places in the world
is a form of textbook pseudoscience,
or climate change denialism. Most of
these pseudosciences masquerade as the
real science and usually have the word
‘science’ or ‘medicine’ with them. Even
today there are millions of people who
refuse to accept many scientifically
validated concepts as facts; for example
Darwin’s theory of evolution (instead
they believe in Intelligent Design).
Pseudoscience approaches you
through emotion (such as mysteries and
miracles) and anecdotes, not through
reason and evidence. Most of the
pseudoscience practices, especially
alternative medicine, make use of the
placebo effect that results from the belief
that one has been treated rather than
having experienced actual changes due
to physical, physiological, and chemical
activities of treatment.
Anecdotes are unreliable accounts
and hearsays. For example, someone
tells you that the person knows a
very ‘effective’ alternate medicine
practitioner in a particular city who has
cured cancer through a miracle cure.
There is a need to understand that a
number of diseases go away on their own
Pseudoscience approaches
you through emotion (such
as mysteries and miracles)
and anecdotes, not through
reason and evidence.
without any treatment as well.
Sometimes cancer too goes away,
but the chances are very less, one in
fifty lakhs. Since ancient times people
from various cultures around the world
have prayed for rain during drought
periods. Some days it rains, some other
days it doesn’t. Does praying cause rain
to come? Not at all; rain comes on its
own. When someone tells you about such
anecdotes, ask them what the evidences
are. Out of one hundred cancer patients,
how many got cured?
Trust the science, stay away from
obvious unsubstantiated claims and
anecdotes (and motivate others to do
the same). And ask questions. Do
practitioners of alternative medicines
ever get their children vaccinated, or
give them antibiotics when sick?
A strategy often used is a trap
known as the ‘philosophical burden of
proof’ (also known as ‘Russel’s Teapot’).
Bertrand Russel once famously wrote
about one such claim that he invented:
there is a lone teapot that orbits the sun
between Earth and Mars. Can anyone
disprove this assertion? Proponents of
pseudoscience make such unverifiable,
unfalsifiable claims, and ask the sceptics
to prove otherwise (which is impossible
to disprove).
Another strategy is known as
argumentum ad populum – the appeal
to widespread beliefs. For example,
‘ghosts are real because millions believe
in them’. We should be aware that belief
being so widespread (for example,
“food becomes poison during eclipse,”
“peahen gets pregnant by drinking the
tears of peacock”, “the only animal that
inhales and exhales oxygen is cow”,
“drenching in the rain causes fever” or
“cold weather causes common cold”)
does not make it true.
A logical fallacy called dicto
simpliciter (generalisation) is also related

Read This!
Some books are recommended for the
young readers to arm themselves with
the power of scientific knowledge and
to discern pseudoscience:
• Carl Sagan’s The Demon-Haunted
World: Science as a Candle in
the Dark
• Richard Dawkin’s The God
Delusion
• Michael Shermer’s Skepticism
101: How to Think Like a Scientist
(audiobook)
to this. For example, “logging (cutting
down the trees) is anti-environment”
is a popular generalisation that has
no scientific basis. Logging is indeed
necessary for the healthy management
of planted forests.
Another related logical fallacy
is argumentum ad antiquitatem or
the appeal to tradition. For example,
Ayurveda and Astrology are true because
these have been practised for thousands
of years and these are our tradition.
Similarly, many practitioners use the
word ‘natural’ to appeal to the public,
but the public should know that simply
being natural does not make it effective
or safe. More than 70 percent of all
medicines are obtained from plants, but
that does not mean crude plant extracts
are either effective or safe.
Another often-used propaganda is
the connotation that the word ‘chemical’
means toxin, which is false. Is there
anything that can be called ‘chemical
free’? Even the purest Antarctic water
is made up of chemicals. Martian rocks
too. The public should be wary of these
advertisement gimmicks.
A number of alternative medicine
formulations have been proven to
contain harmful levels of heavy metals
including lead, mercury, and arsenic.
Often such medicines are claimed to
be ‘government certified’. Investigate
and you find that these government
certifications are what are known as
GMPs (Good Manufacturing Practices).
If any commercial item is manufactured
in hygienic surroundings with proper
quality controls, the government issues
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GMP certifications. What is being
missed here is, however, this certificate
has nothing to do with the efficacy of
the remedy. The certification is not an
attestation that the drug ‘works’ (i.e.,
‘evidence-based’).
Another strategy often employed
is argumentum ad verecundiam or
the appeal to authority, in which a
celebrity is claimed to be endorsing
something. Just because the twenty-three
times Olympic gold medallist Michael
Phelps tried the Chinese practice called
‘cupping’ does not validate it as a
science. Another form of the same trick
is pointing the reference to a book. But
just because something has been printed
on a good-looking book or in a religious
tome does not mean what is claimed is
a fact.
In science, there is no authority.
Science is open to criticism and
improvement; anyone can falsify anyone
else through evidence-based rigorous
methodology (unlike religion and
alternative medicine where criticisms
are not tolerated, and there is no scope
for falsification.
For hundreds of generations,
humanity tried to eradicate one of the
biggest challenges it had ever faced
in history, smallpox, through prayers.
During those ages, religion ruled the
world, science and free thought was
suppressed through those "dark ages."
But prayers failed miserably. Careful
scientific studies by Edward Jenner
helped eradicate smallpox in the next
one-generation smallpox.
Only through inductive
experimentation backed by rigorous
statistical hypothesis testing can
one differentiate between objective
scientific practices and anecdote-
based pseudoscience. However, the
rigorous scientific methodology is
filled with technical jargon entirely
incomprehensible to the non-technically
trained public, and perhaps that
is the cause for the prevalence of
ignorance round the world. And this
is also the reason why practitioners of
pseudoscience can easily deceive simple
plebeians with their miracle cures.
Scientists are like ‘Doubting
Trust the science, stay
away from obvious
unsubstantiated claims and
anecdotes (and motivate
others to do the same).
And ask questions. Do
practitioners of alternative
medicines ever get their
children vaccinated, or
give them antibiotics when
sick?
Thomases’, sceptic to the core and
incredulous to any claims without
evidence. Many scientific insights
taken today as common everyday
knowledge, like ‘smoking causes cancer’
or ‘trans-fat and lack of exercise causes
coronary artery diseases’ are inferences
of decades-long epidemiological studies
backed with rigorous statistics. Take
for instance the famous “Framingham
Heart Study”, which began in 1948 and
is still ongoing. We should realise that
the technology we use today and take for
granted like a computer, or electricity,
or a car, or a mobile phone, or a vaccine
is the product of decades-long rigorous
scientific research.
Since there are no authorities
in science, anyone can directly and
validly question the veracity of a
scientific conclusion. In science there
is no belief system; nobody believes in
science, but they only acknowledge the
efficacy. Science has a built-in correcting
mechanism through which the science
advances every single day. It is a search
for evidence-based truth.
And, therefore, parents and teachers
should teach the young how to think, not
what to think, as the age we are living in
is for knowing, not for believing.
Dr. Felix Bast is a popular science writer
and DST-INSA-INSPIRE Assistant Professor
at Central University of Punjab, Bathinda,
Punjab. Address: Centre for Plant Sciences,
Central University of Punjab, Mansa Road,
Bathinda-151001, Punjab; Email: felix.bast@
gmail.com
M arch 2018 | Science Reporter | 39