Appendix Three

Risk Matrix, Consequence And Likelihood Tables

Risk Matrix

The following risk matrix is used in this document, however there are several
variations on this matrix that can be found in the literature. It does not matter
which matrix you use as long as you consistently use the same matrix.

CONSEQUENCE
LIKELIHOOD Insignificant Minor (2) Moderate (3) Major (4) Extreme (5)
(1)
Rare (1) Low Low Low Low Low
Unlikely (2) Low Low Low Medium Medium
Possible (3) Low Low Medium Medium Medium
Likely (4) Low Medium Medium High High
Almost certain Low Medium Medium High Extreme
(5)

Likelihood Table

The following can be used as a guide for determining likelihood. However this tool
has limitations as likelihood and frequency of events tend to vary between
disciplines and functional areas.

Leve Likelihoo Expected or actual frequency experienced

l d
1 Rare May only occur in exceptional circumstances; simple process; no
previous incidence of non-compliance
2 Unlikely Could occur at some time; less than 25% chance of occurring; non-
complex process &/or existence of checks and balances
3 Possible Might occur at some time; 25 – 50% chance of occurring; previous
audits/reports indicate non-compliance; complex process with
extensive checks & balances; impacting factors outside control of
organisation
4 Likely Will probably occur in most circumstances; 50-75% chance of
occurring; complex process with some checks & balances; impacting
factors outside control of organisation
5 Almost Can be expected to occur in most circumstances; more than 75%
chance of occurring; complex process with minimal checks &
certain
balances; impacting factors outside control of organisation
 Appendix Three
Consequence Table

The following is a guide to determining consequence. The applicability of the

operational definitions of each category of consequence will vary in different
Community Health Service and program areas and thus is recommended as a
guide only.

Level & Health Critical Organization Reputation Non-

descriptor Impacts services al outcomes/ and image compliance
interruptio objectives per issue
n
Insignifica First aid No material Little impact Non-headline Innocent
nt (1) or disruption exposure, not procedural
equivalent at fault; no breach; evidence
only impact of good faith;
little impact
Minor Routine Short term Inconvenient Non-headline Breach;
(2) medical temporary delays exposure, objection/compla
attention suspension clear fault int lodged; minor
required – backlog settled harm with
(up to 2 cleared < 1 quickly; investigation
wks day negligible
incapacity impact
)
Moderate Increased Medium Material Repeated Negligent
(3) level term delays; non-headline breach; lack of
medical temporary marginal exposure; good faith
attention suspension under- slow evident;
(2 wks to – backlog achievement resolution; performance
3 mths cleared by of target Ministerial review initiated
incapacity additional performance enquiry/briefi
) resources ng
Major Severe Prolonged Significant Headline Deliberate
(4) health suspension delays; profile; breach or gross
crisis of work – performance repeated negligence;
(incapacit additional significantly exposure; at formal
y beyond resources under target fault or investigation;
3 mths) required; unresolved disciplinary
performanc complexities; action;
e affected ministerial ministerial
involvement involvement
Catastroph Multiple Indetermina Non Maximum Serious, wilful
ic (5) severe te achievement high level breach; criminal
health prolonged of objective/ headline negligence or
crises/inju suspension outcome; exposure; act; prosecution;
ry or of work; performance Ministerial dismissal;
death non failure censure; loss ministerial
performanc of credibility censure
e