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Time Frame to Economic Recovery Post COVID 19

Technical Report · April 2020

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.22966.24645

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 Time Frame to Economic Recovery Post COVID 19
By
Dawood Mamoon
(World Economic Survey)
Abstract:
The policy brief presents unique perception bases data compiled by World Economic Survey on the
recovery time frame for national economies from COVID 19 crises for selected economies of the
world including Pakistan. The data suggests that economic experts view a longer time period for
economic recovery for European economies estimating that GDP levels would be back at pre crises
year 2019 levels not before year 2022. However economic recovery for China, Korea, Pakistan and
Turkey is perceived to be smooth so that more experts believe that by start of year 2021, economies
of these countries would be able to effectively fight back the crises.
1. Economic Recovery Data
Table: Recovery of GDP to Pre Crises Level (2019)
N 2020 1st half of 2nd half of Not before
2021 2021 2022
Germany 44 6.8% 34% 20.4% 38.6%
France 33 3% 30% 21.2% 45.4%
Italy 67 2.9% 16.4% 16.4% 64.1%
Spain 39 5.1% 41.0% 25.6% 28.2%
United Kingdom 38 5.2% 26.3% 21.0% 47.3%
Netherlands 24 4.1% 54.1% 25.9% 26.6%
China 12 66.6% 16.6% 16.6% 0.0%
Korea 12 41.6% 41.6% 16.6% 0.0%
Pakistan 11 36.6% 45.4% 18.1% 0.0%
Turkey 10 50.0% 20.0% 10% 20.0%
Source: World Economic Survey, April 2020
The data in the table shows that the countries where the severity of COVID 19 pandemic is intense
in terms of corona infections, the recovery of GDP to pre crises levels is expected to take longer time
periods. For example, for European countries like Germany, France, Italy, Spain and United Kingdom
economic recovery will start happening in first half of year 2021 but a full recovery of GDP to 2019
levels would not happen before year 2021. The data in the table also suggests that China and Korea
that have successfully controlled the Pandemic is expected to achieve economic recovery within year
2020. Pakistan where the severity of the COVID 19 pandemic is mild at best is also expected to
recover its economic output within year 2021. Thus these Asian countries are expected to have higher
GDP levels in subsequent years 2021 and 2022.

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