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I n d ia n Ad ex re giste red
h igh e st growth a mo ng
a ll Co u n tr ie s
FORECAST 2022:
20%
DIGITAL: 30%
TRADITIONAL: 15%
ADEX
DEFIES
COVID
WAVE II
Adex zooms by 37%,
Traditional Adex by 31% and
Digital Adex by 50%
Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Traditional Adex - Rs 26552 29056 33435 38871 42165 43835 49202 52136 37177 48793
Crores
Growth % 3 9 15 16 8 4 12 6 -29 31
Digital Adex - Rs Crores 2303 3050 3970 5120 7315 9303 11705 15467 16974 25438
Growth % 50 32 30 29 43 27 26 32 10 50
Total Adex (Rs. in crore) 28854 32106 37405 43991 49480 53138 60908 67603 54151 74231
Growth % 5 11 17 18 12 7 15 11 -20 37
Source: WARC
38%
37% 34%
42%
30%
31%
22% 23%
22%
5%
3%
3%
`3495
2%
2%
`2260
2%
1.5% `2178
`1733
`1292
`1270
0.3% 0.2%
`1045
`20045
`22508
`25438
`15467
`16595
`25291
`16974
`11925
`28151
`136
`182
G R OW T H % 2 0 2 1 /2 0
G R OW T H % 2 0 2 1 / 1 9
Real Estate & Home Improvement 1442 4.0% 2182 5% 51% 2% 740
2020 was a full blown Covid quarter. Both Q3 and Q4 have grown
substantially, not just over corresponding quarters in 2020, but also
over corresponding quarters of 2019. For both 2020 and 2021, Q4 has
registered a substantial contribution of 35% to 37% to the total year’s
Adex,
In terms of categories, in Traditional media (only TV + Print + Radio), CO-POWERED BY
Education grow by
almost 100%
25%
19%
9% 8%
4% -11%
GROWTH %
`28,151
`23,432 `25,291 `22,508
`19,650
`18,831
YEARLY SPENDS
(Rs CRORE)
Period Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
2019 5384 8815 5315 5777 25291
Period Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
PRESENTS
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because Q4 2020 had the full IPL, whereas Q4 2021 had only half of
IPL which started in Q2 but got suspended and resumed in Q4.
TV Adex witnessed a 25% spike in Ad volume or FCT in 2021
PRESENTS
over 2020 and a 11% increase against 2019. Significantly ad volume
in 2021 is higher than 2020 in all four quarters. Faced with a drop
in viewership largely on account of change in BARC panel, large
Advertisers with CPRP deals could not meet their FCT requirements
in festival months of October and November with GEC and movies
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genres dropping spots of these large Advertisers.
FMCG the most dominant sector with a share of 51% in 2020 lost
as much as five percentage points and was down to 46%. This drop
can be attributed to the headwinds faced by the FMCG category
on account of inflation in price of raw materials on the one hand
and aggression by Ecommerce Companies. Ecommerce increased
its share from 11% to 18% and Education from 4% to 6%. Within
Ecommerce, many sub categories have emerged like Mobile Wallets,
Online Pharmacy and Financial Service which substantially increased
their volumes on TV advertising. Edtech sector also doubled its
volume on the back of many brands like Byjus, WhiteHat Jr, Vedantu
and Unacademy. BFSI also increased its share from 2% to 3% on the
back of newage Fintech Companies and Crypto Currency players.
For the first time in many years, BFSI has shown a massive growth
of 70% in TV Adex. Telecom is the only sector that dropped its share
GALLOPING
JUGGERNAUT
Digital grows by
50%. Establishes
CAGR of 27% over
10 years
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50%
43%
32%
27% 26%
10%
GROWTH %
`25,438
`16,974
`15,467
`9,303 `11,705
`7,315
YEARLY SPENDS
(Rs CRORE)
Period Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
2019 3867 3093 3403 5104 15467
`10,684
`10,364
`14,754
`10,787
`4,680
`6,610
2019 2020 2021
% PROGRAMMATIC SPENDS
PRESENTS
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With online sales galloping intense competition now has
extended to online. Ecommerce advertising on brands such as
PRESENTS Amazon and Flipkart have galloped. Traditional brands are also
adopting Ecommerce and many of these brands in addition to
using the Ecommerce platforms are setting up their own online
systems. D2C is expected to take off in a big way in the coming
years. Amazon has just released its global advertising figures and
surprised everyone that in 2021, its advertising revenue at US$ 31
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billion is higher than YouTube’s US$ 29 billion. In India, ecommerce
advertising revenue is rising rapidly and we estimate ecommerce
advertising spends in 2021 to be at Rs. 4100 crore, mainly on the
back of Amazon and Flipkart, but newer entrants like Nykaa, Big
Basket and JioMart are also finding favour with a relevant set of
advertisers.
As per ICUBE report, 573 million Indians access internet daily.
Active Internet Users [AIU], defined as people using internet
atleast once in last 30 days stands at 622 million. For context, as
per BARC, there are 892 TV viewing individuals. This implies that
nearly 70% of TV viewing audience are active internet users. With
regards to AIU, the ratio of male to female in Urban India is 57:43
and that of Urban/ Rural India is 58:42.
892 Million
ACTIVE INTERNET
USERS [AIU]
622 Million
YOUTUBE - AVERAGE
MAU
467 Million
CONNECTED
TV - AVERAGE
MAU
48 Million
ICUBE report estimates that 96% of the AIU use internet for
entertainment related activities (like watching videos, listening to
music, playing games, etc). This has led to sustained spike in terms PRESENTS
an average UVs of 100 million with usage spike during IPL. Aided
by its freemium model, MX Player continues to see an upward
trajectory in UVs. Last year, it recorded average UVs of 120 million
users a month with each user spending 150 minutes per month.
Short form video continues to flourish in India giving a massive
boost to Brand Influencer campaigns.
While most of the digital video consumption is through
smartphones, there is an upsurge in the phenomenon of Connected
TV [CTV]. In connected TVs, content is streamed from digital
sources versus traditional source like Cable orDTH. Today, absolute
reach of CTV is estimated at 48 million. In addition, DTH operators
are bundling streaming apps with their offering.
There is also a continuous influx of Voice-enabled smart IOT
devices in the consumer segment. This has pushed Brands towards
ideating and implementing Voice marketing campaigns and this is
a trend that is going to only grow in future.
RENAISSANCE
IN PRINT
39%
7% 4%
3% 3%
-41%
GROWTH %
`20,045
`18,640 `19,457
`18,151
`16,595
`11,925
YEARLY SPENDS
(Rs CRORE)
Period Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
2019 4867 5830 4493 4855 20045
Period Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
Yr 2019 85 82 75 85 327
Yr 2020 61 19 53 76 209
Yr 2021 72 40 71 91 274
Real Estate & Home Improvement 683 1025 50% -13% 342 6% 6%
PRESENTS
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36%
13% 14%
7% 5%
-44%
GROWTH %
`2,260
`2,144
`1,875
`1,749
`1,733
`1,270
YEARLY SPENDS
(Rs CRORE)
Real Estate & Home Improvement 129 183 42% -14% 54 10% 11%
69%
9% 9%
6% 4%
-63%
GROWTH % `3,495
`3,085 `3,365
`2,910
`2,178
`1,292
YEARLY SPENDS
(Rs CRORE)
Period Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
Real Estate & Construction 268 472 76% -7% 204 21% 22%
Material
Organized Retail (Jewellery, 145 298 106% -42% 153 11% 14%
Apparel, garments, showroom)
FMCG 174 289 66% -26% 114 14% 13%
Financial Services (Banking, MF, 169 281 67% -16% 112 13% 13%
Insurance, Bond share)
Consumer Services ( Hospitals, 140 237 70% -55% 98 11% 11%
Restaurants, Education)
Media ( Print, T.V Channels, Radio, 126 152 21% -33.1% 26 10% 7%
DTH, OTT)
Automotive ( 2 Wheelers & 4 94 111 18% -46% 17 7% 5%
Wheelers)
Telecom (Mobile Services, 65 60 -8% -71% -5 5% 3%
Handsets)
E-commerce (Portals, Websites, 28 49 77% -50% 21 2% 2%
Apps)
Electronic Durables (Home 23 40 73% -57% 17 2% 2%
Appliances, Laptop, Camera)
Pharmacy 6 15 135% -26% 9 0% 1%
Petroleum/Lubricants 3 8 147% -35% 5 0% 0%
Energy 1 2 272% 86% 1 0% 0%
Others 50 163 227% -55% 113 4% 7%
PRESENTS
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37%
30%
12% 12%
-25%
-83%
GROWTH %
`1,045
`805
`586
`523
`182
YEARLY SPENDS
`136
(Rs CRORE)
15 START-UPS
ENTER
TOP 50
ADVERTISERS
LIST
I
n keeping with the technology boom, 11 Circle, Google, L’Oreal and MPL (Gaming)
15 new-age Companies / start-ups have gained many ranks, Pepsi, Amul, Nestle, VI
entered our top 50 list, altering the and Hero Motors dropped many ranks.
composition of this list. These are Dream 11 Top 50 Advertisers account for 38% (last
at No. 3, BYJU’s at No. 5, Phone year 35%) of Adex and top 10
Pe at No. 12, Upstox at No. 13, continue to account for 18%
My 11 Circle at No. 14 and many of total Adex or 48% (last
others including CRED, Netmed, year 50%) of the top 50 list.
MPL, Policybazaar, Unacademy, PRESENTS Television and Digital continue
WhiteHat Jr, Swiggy, Netflix, to be the favourites of top
Coin Switch Kuber and Coin Advertisers accounting for 88%
DCX, coming lower in the of their total spends. Top 50
pecking order. Advertisers now spend 30 % of
We have as many as 14 new CO-POWERED BY
their budget on Digital alone
Advertisers in our list this year (up from 14 % last year)
compared to 10 last year. FMCG A note of caution, some
still dominates the list with 15 advertisers who in our list rank
players all with high ranks, but above 50, may well be among
their dominance is decreasing. the top 50 list or vice-versa.
Six out of top 10 are FMCG Advertisers, We may mention that many Madison clients
Hindustan Unilever, Reckitt, P&G, Reliance, feature in this list, but we hasten to add that
Mondelez and ITC. Whilst Unilever continues we have not used confidential information
to top the list consistently, Amazon reappears that we are privy to in arriving at this list.
at number 2 and BYJU’s is now at number 5. The list has been arrived at using a standard
Whilst many Advertisers like Dream 11, My structured process.
ADEX TO
SURGE TO
RS. 90,000
CRORE
Adex to grow by 20% to reach close to Rs.
90,000 crore; Traditional media to grow
at 15%; Digital to grow at 2X of Traditional.
Digital Medium to overtake TV in 2022.
TV 25291 37% 22508 42% 28151 38% 25% 32100 36% 14%
PRINT 20045 30% 11925 22% 16595 22% 39% 18750 21% 13%
CINEMA 1045 1.5% 182 0.3% 136 0.2% -25% 500 0.6% 267%
TOTAL TRADITIONAL 52136 77% 37177 69% 48793 66% 31% 56215 63% 15%
Digital 15467 23% 16974 31% 25438 34% 50% 33070 37% 30%
O
ur Outlook for Adex Covid in 2020 when Adex de-
in 2022 continues to grew 20%.
be positive. Last year With a growth rate of 20%, PRESENTS
DIGITAL
The pandemic has opened the eyes of many Advertisers to the power
of Digital and given the continuously increasing penetration of Digital in
India, we estimate Digital to take another big leap in 2022, growing by
almost Rs. 8,000 crores to Rs. 33,070 crore and growing its share from
34% to 37%. As indicated in the earlier paragraph, Digital will pip TV with
a share of 37% and become the largest medium in Indian Adex in 2022.
Digital medium is expected to grow by a dramatic 30% (Twice that of
Traditional) on the back of Video primarily driven by OTTs, Short Video
Apps, E-commerce, Performance Marketing and Connected TV.
PRINT
We expect Print to continue to accelerate its road to recovery, given
the substantial de-growth that happened in 2020, due to Covid. Print
grew substantially in Q4 of 2021.
But with a growth of 13% will still short by Rs. 1,300 crore as compared
to pre Covid levels. Surge in Print Adex is likely to be driven by categories
like real estate, education, mobile apps, crypto currencies, online
shopping, Media/ OTT and Edtech. State election campaigns including
Advertorials is also likely to fuel growth in Print Adex. With 13% growth
rate, Print Adex is likely to reach close to Rs. 18,750 crore and establish a
share of 21% down by 1% share point compared to 2020 & 2021.
OOH
We expect Outdoor to grow by 36% in 2022, taking the total
Outdoor Advertising market close to Rs. 3,000 crore, but settle at
a share of just 3%. Despite growing by more than 750 crores (36%),
OOH Adex is still expected to be lower than its pre Covid levels by Rs
550 crores.
We are bullish on Digital OOH because of several reasons. The
few advertisers who have used DOOH have expressed delight with
the medium; the regulatory authorities have also warmed up to the
medium and are granting licenses in increasing numbers; there is
a reduction in Digital price of screens with increasing volumes and
now there is an enabling mechanism provided by the emergence
of platforms, all of which should give a big boost to DOOH. We
estimate that the number of screens will move up from 60,000 to
85,000 in 2022 and with this DOOH Adex will move up from Rs. 300
to Rs. 800 crore and establish a substantial share of 27% in OOH
Adex.
CINEMA
The Cinema industry had a dry spell for last 20 months due to
the pandemic and multiple lockdowns. However with markets slowly
opening up across India, Cinema advertising revenue will definitely
see a revival in coming months. In 2022, we expect cinema to grow
to almost thrice of year 2021 to become a Rs. 500 crore advertising
market. Interestingly, this is half of what cinema advertising was
during pre Covid levels in 2019. At this level, Cinema share of Adex
will be a miniscule 0.56% in 2022.
We are guided in our forecast by the fact that Production of films
which was halted in 2020, fortunately resumed in 2021 and one can
hope for a flurry of releases in 2022, which should attract substantial
Cinema Advertising.
WHY WE
PREDICT A
20% GROWTH
IN 2022 – A
MACRO VIEW
By Nagaraj Krishnamurthy,
Chief Strategy and Analytics Officer,
Madison Media
F
or Adex, the biggest tailwind is the opening of
the economy. Fortunately, third wave did not
result in high hospitalization and consequently PRESENTS
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Source: RBI
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
RBI survey indicates a gradual improvement, though it remained
in the pessimistic zone. It rose to 63.7 in the latest round in January,
compared to 62.3 in November. The marginal improvement in the current
situation index is on the back of better sentiments on general economic
situation, household income and spending. The one-year ahead outlook,
as reflected by the future expectations index, remained in the optimism
zone but moderated as the latest survey period coincided with a surge in
Covid-19 cases.
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1. EMarketer, Jun -2019