ALEKS 30/03/20 16(20

Student Name:Marco
Marco Antonio Fragoso Gonzalez
Date:03/30/2020
03/30/2020

Probability

Law of total probabilities

Sample Question

While working for Life magazine, Archie is assigned to the Galapagos Islands to photograph a rare, giant white turtle.
The turtle can be found either on Isabella, the largest of the 16 Galapagos islands, or on Santa Cruz, the next largest
island. Many have tried to locate the giant turtle, but 87% of them have failed. In addition, 4 out of every 8 searches in
the past were concentrated on Santa Cruz, though only 9% of them were actually successful. Archie intends to search
on Isabella. What is the probability that Archie will successfully find the turtle? Round your answer to two decimal places.

Explanation

We have to decode the information in the above paragraph.

We are told that the probability that the giant white turtle will be located is 1 − 0.87 = 0.13 . The searches have been
undertaken either on Isabella or on Santa Cruz; 4 out of every 8 searches in the past were concentrated on Santa Cruz,
4 1 4 1
so the probability of a search on Santa Cruz is = . Hence, the probability of a search on Isabella is = .
8 2 8 2

Let us write find turtle for the event "the giant white turtle is successfully located." We'll also write Santa Cruz for the
event "Santa Cruz is searched," and Isabella for the event "Isabella is searched." The fact that only 9% of the searches
on Santa Cruz have been successful is translated as P find turtle Santa Cruz = 0.09.
Applied to this scenario, the law of total probability reads

P find turtle =P find turtle Isabella ·P Isabella +P find turtle Santa Cruz ·P Santa Cruz
.

Filling in the numerical information, we have

1 1
0.13 = P find turtle Isabella · + 0.09·
2 2
We deduce that

1
P find turtle Isabella = 0.13 − 0.09· ·2 = 0.17.
2

Answer

Thus, the answer is 0.17 .

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