Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • Forecasting 1 Cass Notes

    Uploaded by

    vijayaganth
    14 views6 pages
    The document describes exponential smoothing, a forecasting method. It provides an example of sales data over 16 months and the corresponding exponential smoothing forecasts. The smoothing constant determines how much weight is given to recent observations versus older data in calculating the forecasts. As the constant increases, more weight is given to recent observations and the forecasts respond more quickly to changes in the actual data.

    Original Description:

    Original Title

    forecasting 1 cass notes

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    Report this Document
    The document describes exponential smoothing, a forecasting method. It provides an example of sales data over 16 months and the corresponding exponential smoothing forecasts. The smoothing constant determines how much weight is given to recent observations versus older data in calculating the forecasts. As the constant increases, more weight is given to recent observations and the forecasts respond more quickly to changes in the actual data.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    14 views6 pages

    Forecasting 1 Cass Notes

    Uploaded by

    vijayaganth
    The document describes exponential smoothing, a forecasting method. It provides an example of sales data over 16 months and the corresponding exponential smoothing forecasts. The smoothing constant determines how much weight is given to recent observations versus older data in calculating the forecasts. As the constant increases, more weight is given to recent observations and the forecasts respond more quickly to changes in the actual data.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 6

    Exponential smoothing

    month sales output


    1 100 100
    Exponential Smoothing
    2 120 114 1600
    3 145 135.7 1400
    4 200 180.71
    1200
    5 210 201.213
    1000
    6 230 221.3639

    Value
    7 240 234.4092 800
    8 258 250.9228 600
    9 290 278.2768 400
    10 300 293.483
    200
    11 400 368.0449
    12 550 495.4135 0
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1
    13 780 694.624
    14 500 558.3872 Data Point
    15 520 531.5162
    16 920 803.4548
    ential Smoothing

    Forecast
    Actual

    6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
    Data Point
    month sales output
    moving average 1 100 #N/A
    2 120 #N/A
    3 145 #N/A C
    4 180 #N/A 1000
    5 200 149 800
    6 280 185 600
    7 240 209 400
    8 258 231.6 200
    9 456 286.8 0
    1 2 3 4 5
    10 485 343.8
    11 841 456
    12 182 444.4
    13 285 449.8
    14 780 514.6
    15 526 522.8
    16 481 450.8
    Chart Title
    1000
    800
    600
    400
    200
    0
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

    Actual Forecast
    trend analysis
    SUMMARY OUTPUT
    month sales
    1 200 Regression Statistics
    2 240 Multiple R 0.714789743857678
    3 215 R Square 0.510924377924125
    4 222 Adjusted R 0.475990404918705
    5 145 Standard E 112.100640370288
    6 156 Observatio 16
    7 201
    8 100 ANOVA
    9 150 df SS
    10 180 Regression 1 183791.25
    11 400 Residual 14 175931.75
    12 500 Total 15 359723
    13 524
    14 480 Coefficients Standard Error
    15 560 Intercept 91.625 58.786071753
    16 355 month 23.25 6.0795108093
    MS F Significance F
    183791.25 14.625430032 0.0018593729
    12566.55357143

    t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
    1.558617496761 0.1414004297 -34.45858413 217.708584131 -34.45858413 217.70858413
    3.8243208589 0.0018593729 10.210746147 36.2892538529 10.210746147 36.289253853

    You might also like