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POLITICS & ECONOMY BUSINESS

COVID-19 in charts: What


the numbers say about Asia
Philippine fast-food king’s global
page 28 expansion spoiled by the pandemic page 16

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May 11-17, 2020

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CONTENTS

AP
8
ON THE COVER BUSINESS

READY 16 25
Jollibee puts its plans for fast-food Nintendo market cap soars past
dominance on the back burner Tokyo Disney operator in the

PLAYER ONE?
CLIFF VENZON Manila new stay-at-home world
RYO SAEKI/TAKEHIRO HASEGAWA Tokyo

JOHN GAPPER/JADA NAGUMO Tokyo 20 China’s Moutai ‘state liquor’ defies


national slump in alcohol sales
Sony CEO Kenichiro KENJI KAWASE Tokyo THROUGH THE LENS
Yoshida navigates the
22 Countries focus on national drives
26 The safety dance
coronavirus and activist over international cooperation in
vaccine race
attacks as he fights to NORIYUKI TAKADA/MINORU SATAKE
POLITICS & ECONOMY
restore the company
Tokyo/London

to its innovative prime 28


23

Courtesy of AnGes

Kosaku Mimura
COVID-19 in charts: Japan and
India opts for its own COVID-19 the Philippines dodge explosions
tests kits, rejecting those from China AKANE OKUTSU/MITSURU OBE Tokyo
KIRAN SHARMA New Delhi

32 Southeast Asia’s remittances suffer


Sony CEO Kenichiro Yoshida speaks 24 Toyota, Canon and others free a record hit as migrant labor dries up
at the CES technology conference their patents to fight the virus SHOTARO TANI Jakarta
in Las Vegas in January 2019. NIKKEI STAFF WRITERS Tokyo
(Photo by Getty Images)

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ON THE COVER

FAST
FORWARD Sony spent
years stuck
on pause.
CEO Kenichiro
Yoshida got it
rolling again.

JOHN GAPPER Nikkei Asian Review editor-at-large


JADA NAGUMO Nikkei staff writer

TOKYO Before the novel coronavirus outbreak


began, Sony CEO Kenichiro Yoshida had many
reasons to be optimistic. Under his leadership the
electronics-to-entertainment conglomerate had
regained its momentum, and with it the respect
of its shareholders. Yoshida, a quiet and reflective
figure, had seen off an attack by the U.S. activist
hedge fund Third Point, and was preparing for
the launch of the next generation of its iconic
PlayStation games console.
As he readies for Sony’s full-year results
announcement on May 13, and to make its annual
strategy presentation to investors a few days later,
the world outside the company’s 20-story Tokyo
The pioneering Walkman headquarters has changed.
defined music-listening for a
generation -- but Sony failed to
Its shares sunk as four of its factories in China
Reuters

adapt the device when Apple’s were temporarily shut and its Hollywood studio
iPod entered the scene. had to halt production. The initial shock has worn

8 Nikkei Inc. No reproduction without permission. 9


ON THE COVER

off, and the share price has partly recovered cheered when Hirai and Yoshida sold weaker recovered financially, some question its future as of management urgency, a need for humility and
from its March lows. Its video games have even brands, such as its Vaio laptops, and as they an innovative force. “It is sad to see how a once- the importance of a long-term view.”
experienced a boost from people needing to be curtailed their ambitions for the Xperia mobile great company like Sony is going down and down Yoshida’s humility is expressed through
entertained during lockdowns. phones when it became clear that they would not in hardware. I don’t want to sound negative, but curiosity. “He came to me and said, ‘Let’s talk
But, like other global companies, Sony must now match Apple’s iPhone. They proved that Sony it is an orderly retreat,” said Chang Sea-jin, a about medical things,’ and we met for dinner,”
navigate an uncertain environment, not knowing would cut its losses when necessary. professor at the National University of Singapore said Toru Katsumoto, who heads Sony’s medical
fully the long-term impact, or how drastically But Yoshida does not simply want to keep and author of “Sony vs. Samsung.” “Yoshida is business and research and development, of their
its business will be disrupted. Its leader at a slimming Sony. He rejected pressure from Third a financial guy running a company focused on first meeting. “I spoke about medical imaging
crucial time is not a charismatic extrovert like his Point to spin off its image sensors business, which profits and market valuation, not a great engineer.” and tried to explain the technology as simply as
predecessor Kazuo Hirai, but a cool strategist who in 2018 held 51% of the world’s market for image possible, but he had read a lot before we met.
helped to steer its transformation as chief financial Kenichiro Yoshida, 60, sensors, including smartphone cameras. He sees ‘A NEED FOR HUMILITY’ When people first
The entire I was surprised and impressed. Once or twice
officer before taking over as chief executive in 2018. has spent his entire a long-term future for Sony businesses that have meet Yoshida, they are often surprised that way people a month, we have a face-to-face meeting and we
His task was always complex and challenging, but career at Sony. little in common with entertainment, such as life instead of an extrovert, effusive, globe-trotting work or enjoy exchange ideas freely.”
COVID-19 has made it monumental. insurance and medical equipment, which helped chief executive of a tech company, they find an entertainment His enthusiasm for educating himself extends
“The entire way people work or enjoy to compensate for its electronics losses at times of amiable and quizzical figure who devotes as to junior employees, even in a country that
entertainment may change, but their motivations strain. “In the past, we used diversity to survive. much time and energy to listening to others as
may change, regards corporate hierarchy as sacrosanct. It
and inspirations and desire for entertainment I want diversity to be a strength,” he said. talking. Now 60, he joined Sony in 1983 and spent but their helps that he is comfortable talking without a
will not. It is too early to tell what kind of change Its success in sensors and in video gaming, his entire career there, mostly in analytical roles in motivations group of executives around him -- he will often
[there will be] but we will have to adapt to the with the PlayStation 4 easily beating the Microsoft strategy and finance, working out how to expand and sit alone with visitors, throwing out questions.
new world,” he said in an interview with the Xbox in the race to sell more than 100 million the company. “Some of the younger generation engineers who
Nikkei Asian Review. “The value of creating units, have allowed him the benefit of the doubt. “We realized how much Japan urgently and
inspirations know about the latest technologies will go to his
excellent content will remain, whatever the But with this year’s launch of the PlayStation 5 indispensably required a company like ours, and desire for office to teach him. Yoshida-san did not do an
method of delivery is.” overshadowed by COVID-19, and the future of with technological spirit and a set of management entertainment engineering major, but he actually knows a lot
Until the pandemic, Sony’s revival music and television in flux, Yoshida cannot policies,” Sony’s founder Masaru Ibuka wrote in about technology,” Katsumoto said.
from disarray in 2012 at the end of rely on it indefinitely. To restore Sony’s its first prospectus in 1946. It was this combination
will not Yoshida’s quieter approach and willingness
Sir Howard Stringer’s troubled era as halo as the company that invented of innovation and rigor that led to Sony’s half- to rethink past expansionism has something in
chief executive had been striking -- devices from the Walkman to the century streak of creation, from Japan’s first common with a new generation of technology
its shares rose more than sixfold PlayStation, he must not simply transistor radio in 1955 to the Trinitron color leaders, including Sundar Pichai at Google and
by January this year before go slow and steady to please television in 1968, the Walkman in 1979 and the Kenichiro Yoshida Satya Nadella at Microsoft. Benedict Evans, an
Sony CEO
falling sharply on the shareholders. PlayStation in 1994. In 2018, Yoshida recalled independent internet and technology analyst,
outbreak. Investors Although Sony has learning from Akio Morita, co-founder, “a sense sees other similarities in the way that Nadella

1994 PLAYSTATION 2001 EVILLA 2013 ALPHA7R


Sony’s entry into a console Launched in June 2001, the eVilla was not quite Although Sony had a successful imaging
1975 BETAMAX market then dominated a computer. It could play audio and video files, sensor business supplying other camera makers,
Sony pioneered several media formats -- some that became global by Nintendo was and for a $22 monthly subscription, offered its own devices struggled to break through
standards, like the CD and the 3.5-inch floppy disk, and some, a startling success. access to the internet. It was immediately clear with many professionals and enthusiasts. The compact, powerful A7
like the MiniDisc, that didn’t. However, its most iconic failure remains Betamax, Over the next decade, that it could not compete with PCs, and by and A7R mirrorless cameras changed that, forcing market leaders
which fell behind the competing standard, VHS. Sony kept investing in the the PlayStation would sell September it had been withdrawn. Buyers were Canon and Nikon to rush to develop their own competing products.
format despite its failure, and only ceased production in 2016. more than 100 million units. offered full refunds.
PLAYSTATION 4
The latest in Sony’s line of games consoles,
the PlayStation 4 was a critical and commercial
1979 WALKMAN VAIO MUSIC CLIP 1999 2000 PLAYSTATION 2 2006 MYLO success, selling more than 100 million units.
The pioneering portable Sony preempted the iPod by two years with the Music Clip, a portable The follow-up to the surprise success A hand-held device shaped The PlayStation 5 was announced in 2019, to be
music player was a digital music player. However, the player used an unpopular of the PlayStation cemented Sony’s like a games console, released in late 2020.
cultural phenomenon in proprietary file format that was quickly superseded by the MP3. place in the games the Mylo offered young But with gaming moving onto
the 1980s and 1990s, market. Sony sold consumers a portable way to use popular the cloud and mobile devices,
selling more than 200 AIBO 150 million units, messaging services, including Skype, AOL analysts question whether
million units. It cemented The mechanical dog that could walk, wave, and respond to spoken and users bought IM and Yahoo Messenger. It had no cellular the era of the console
the dominance of the cassette tape commands became a shorthand for Japan’s apparent lead in robotics. a collective 1.5 connection, and only ran on Wi-Fi. Three is coming to an end.
over vinyl, and paved the way for its Commercially, it was a failure, and Sony discontinued the line in 2006. billion games months after the Mylo was launched, Apple
digital equivalents decades later. In 2018, however, Sony launched its first new Aibo in over a decade. for the platform. CEO Steve Jobs announced the iPhone. Source photos by Getty Images

10 Nikkei Inc. No reproduction without permission. 11


ON THE COVER

in detail. “His attitude is not just ‘I’m doing this made ‘recurring’ a keyword,” said Masahiro Ono, From semiconductors
because I’ve been forced to,’” says one person an analyst at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities. to Spider-Man
close to Third Point. “They think he is a good “I believe this makes him a successful CEO.” Sony’s businesses are
operator who wants to create value.” In the long term, Sony faces the growth diverse, ranging from
entertainment to imaging
of cloud-based gaming over fifth-generation
sensors to financial
READY PLAYER ONE If video games were still networks, and the launch of smartphone-based services. Its gaming
in the vanguard of consumer electronics, Sony platforms such as Apple’s Arcade and Google’s division has become
a runaway success:
would be in a powerful position. The PlayStation Stadia. But for now, streaming drawbacks such
Revenues have more than
4 has been a huge hit since its 2013 launch, with as latency in multiplayer games gives consoles tripled, and now make up
cumulative sales exceeding 100 million units, an edge and bolsters its franchise. In February, more than a quarter of

Reuters
Reuters

overall sales. But analysts


more than twice those of Microsoft’s Xbox; Sony’s it predicted that games and network services will
warn the company’s
Marvel’s Spider-Man game for the platform has comprise 23% of revenues and 27% of operating traditional focus on
The things sold 13 million units alone. While Nintendo’s profit in its 2019 full-year results, which will be hardware may leave it
unprepared for the
Sony’s then-president, Nobuyuki Switch is loved by casual gamers, hardcore announced on May 13. Shop assistants hold back crowds
Idei, right, ties up a broadcast deal Sony did gaming enthusiasts remain Sony devotees. Sony surprised many analysts last May by
advent of cloud gaming.
clamoring to buy the PlayStation 3
with media tycoons including ... stopped Breakdown of sales console in Tokyo in 2006.
Sony also made its earnings from gaming announcing a cloud gaming tie-up with its main
Rupert Murdoch in 1997. (In percent)
mattering. Half less cyclical by reducing financial dependence gaming rival, Microsoft -- an acknowledgement
of the products on launching and selling a new version of that the dominance of the console may be on FY2011 goes, is dwarfed by the smartphone. Sony’s
and Yoshida pleased investors: “A lot of what PlayStation every six or seven years. In 2015, it the wane. 100 million PS4 sales are tiny in comparison to
Nadella did was capitulate and say, ‘This is where
don’t exist and launched PlayStation Now, an online streaming Sony’s interactive business has also gained
7.6 9.6
Apple’s installed base of 1.5 billion devices. Sony
13.3 10.5
we are now and this is what we are going to do,’ the other got service allowing users to pick from a collection from COVID-19, and the eagerness of people to Total was outsmarted by Apple first with the iPod
rather than chasing the glories of the past.” consumed into of more than 400 titles to play on their consoles be entertained at home. Social distancing only 6.6 6.49 and then the iPhone, having failed to adapt the
trillion yen
Fellow executives insist that Yoshida is more smartphones or PC for about $10 a month. PlayStation Plus, encourages gamers to interact remotely with 10.1 22.4 Walkman for the internet era. It was an expensive
than a backroom thinker -- he spent seven years another service on which users can access online each other. It has responded with a Play at Home 19.8 strategic error that leaves Sony hoping somehow
outside the head office at its internet services arm multiplayer games, has 38 million subscribers. initiative, including letting gamers download some to regain leadership in the post-smartphone era of
Sony Network Communications, taking it public Its emphasis on recurring revenues has pleased titles for free. “There is huge demand on the games FY2018 consumer technology.
as its president in 2005. But more of his career has many investors. “Sony is the only Japanese side. ... It is vital for employees to feel that they do “The things Sony did that placed them on
Benedict Evans 3.9 5.6
been spent in strategy and finance under other Independent electronics company to have surpassed its profit good for society, and delivering content to homes every magazine cover stopped mattering. Half
14.4
CEOs, including Nobuyuki Idei in the late 1990s. technology analyst levels [from] before the Lehman crisis. Yoshida is socially very important right now,” Yoshida said. of the products don’t exist and the other got
25.9
Perhaps as a result, he has a clear philosophy knew the company had to become sustainable and The pandemic has been less helpful for the Total consumed into smartphones,” said Evans. “The
9.0
of leadership, including the need to consider all continuity in growth was valuable. That is why he planned launch of the PlayStation 5, scheduled for 8.93 world moved to software and they did not make
trillion yen
angles before making difficult decisions. release during the 2020 year-end holiday season. 11.0 the leap. They own a studio and the world’s
A leader must “make necessary decisions The console will be compatible with ultrahigh- 17.3
biggest music publisher, but those have no
12.9
at necessary times and take responsibility for definition 8K displays and have a solid-state drive strategic leverage for hardware.”
the result. Unnecessary quick decisions are not
Prodigal Sony to offer quick loading times. “The PS5 will likely be The irony for Sony is that it is increasingly
Since hitting share price lows in 2012, Sony has seen a turnaround under Chief Executive Mobile
good. Any necessary decision is tough, and it is Kenichiro Yoshida, who refocused the company’s efforts away from the crowded very high-spec and users can anticipate a deeper successful in smartphones -- not as a brand,
Game and network
very difficult to know it is objectively correct,” field of consumer electronics and toward intellectual property. sense of immersion,” said Yoshiharu Izumi, a services but as a components maker. The fact that many
Yoshida said. Alongside this responsibility, he senior analyst as SBI Securities. But no matter how Imaging and sensing* devices have three or four cameras has raised
Tokyo Stock Exchange, monthly closing price (In yen)
puts two other tasks -- “to lay out the direction eagerly Sony gamers await the PS5, the pandemic Home entertainment demand for its CMOS (complementary metal-
and sound
of the company, which includes its purpose and 12,000 makes an attention-grabbing launch harder. Movies
oxide-semiconductor) sensors so much that Sony
direction as well as identity” and “to decide who Sony’s bigger problem is that the games Music is investing more than $900 million to expand
to entrust with what tasks and for how long.” console, no matter how well the PS5 launch Financial services capacity by building a new plant in Nagasaki
8,000
His approach is even appreciated by Third Other Prefecture. Sony estimated in February that its
Point, the hedge fund that has pressed him *Includes semiconductors and sensors business would produce more than
to restructure Sony. Third Point is known for 4,000 devices
Source: Company
1 trillion yen in revenues in the 2019 financial
attacking some CEOs aggressively, but it praised year, and only slightly less in operating profits
“the thoughtful leadership of Yoshida-san” when than its games business.
0
it took a $1.5 billion stake last June. Despite their May ‘05 ‘10 ‘15 Apr. Aibo, Sony’s revolutionary
It was the sensors operation that attracted Third
Reuters

differences, this harmony has endured, helped by 2000 ‘20 -- but commercially Point to Sony last June, arguing that it was one of
his willingness to consider the fund’s proposals Source: QUICK-FactSet unsuccessful -- robot dog. the most undervalued large-cap businesses in the

12 Nikkei Inc. No reproduction without permission. 13


ON THE COVER

world. The hedge fund wanted Sony to spin off Sony's giant image makes sensors for smartphones, but high-end Such diversity is more characteristic of a
sensors into what it said could become a $35 billion sensor business claims professional cameras and surgical microscopes. Its Japanese conglomerate than a Western company,
stand-alone business, and to focus on gaming, financial services arm Sony Financial Holdings, and Yoshida emphasizes the financial value
music and films as an entertainment group.
Yoshida responded with a strategic review of its
over which began by offering life insurance in 1981, has
a subsidiary that operates nursing homes. In 2013,
of having a broad portfolio of products with
differing life cycles. “As well as entertainment, we
assets, but decided last September to hold onto
sensors, instead selling off the remaining 5% stake
it held in fellow Japanese tech company Olympus.
half
the global market
at the low point of its post-Lehman crisis, Sony
Financial contributed two-thirds of Sony’s profits.
Sony’s motto is “kando” -- making products
have businesses to support people, like medical
or life insurance. The time scale is long in medical
equipment, quite opposite from smartphones.
“I greatly value an open dialogue with and services that create a sense of wonder and This diversity stabilizes the company.”
Estimated
shareholders. It is incredibly important as well as stand-alone value: excitement, and most of its consumer devices Diversity could also hold back Sony’s valuation.
useful for us as I carry out my duties,” Yoshida are for entertainment. But it is clearly thinking “The big thing that Third Point keeps telling them
said of Third Point. “Any proposal creates an more broadly about the future. At the Consumer is that Sony is a great global company, but it is not
opportunity for us to rethink our business portfolio
$35 Electronics Show held in Las Vegas in January, perceived in the way it should be,” said one person

Getty Images
[and] the demand to focus is very important.” But it unveiled a self-driving concept car that would close to the discussions. Hideki Yasuda, an analyst
he shows no inclination to succumb to short-term
demands from investors. “Management is very billion use its sensors to navigate. “The megatrend
after smartphones will be mobility, and we will
at Ace Research Institute, agrees that perception
lags reality. “Yoshida’s accomplishment has been
operational, and investors are clearly financial. Source: Sony, Third Point contribute to its evolution from the perspective of huge and has contributed to growth, but investors
They have a put option and can sell at any time.” safety, security and entertainment,” Yoshida said. have not appreciated Sony’s strength. The point is
Sony displays its VR technology at the
to bridge the gap between the Sony that investors

$1.5
Consumer Electronics Show in 2019.
WONDER AND EXCITEMENT For a company PlayStation 4 sales have exceeded see and the transformed one,” he said.
famed for consumer entertainment, Sony has 100 million units, more than twice Hirai and Yoshida worked to correct one of

billion While Third Point has pushed for it to spin off


always taken a liberal view of its scope. It not only those of Microsoft’s Xbox. Sony’s worst conglomerate weaknesses -- that
its hardware and entertainment arms were silos sensors, others have suggested it should exploit
that did not communicate with each other. the intense demand for film and television content
“Six or seven years ago, it was really siloed and Value of Sony stake from streaming services such as Netflix and Apple
we did not talk to the entertainment people -- the disclosed by activist TV+ by selling its studio -- the biggest independent
fund Third Point,
synergy did not happen. But we now have a real one still standing -- during what could be a price
once the company's
relationship,” Katsumoto said. “Jim Ryan [head of bubble. Yoshida demurs. “That is a financial way of
largest investor
games division Sony Interactive Entertainment] thinking,” he said. “Visual content is clearly a core
and Tony Vinciquerra [head of Sony Pictures Source: Third Point for a creative entertainment company. We need to
Entertainment] are partners, and even friends.” think about the long-term future of the business.”
Having restored investors’ trust, Yoshida prefers
to keep his options open in a changing world. As
its display at CES showed, he wants Sony to take a
Game on bigger share of the growing market for self-driving
In the 1990s and early 2000s, Sony was the clear leader in video games
with its then-peerless PlayStation console. But by 2008, its market share had fallen vehicles by selling packages of sensors, including
to around a third, eaten into by Nintendo and Microsoft. (In percent) crucial “lidar” vision sensors, to automakers.
Further into the future, he sees Sony sensors
100
and technology embedded in many devices.
Microsoft
80 “I sometimes think that the ‘internet of things’
is just a transition to the ‘intelligence of things.’”
60 Sony The impact of technology is now clouded by
Sega the outbreak of COVID-19, making it harder to
40 judge. But Sony’s medical products, and even
its life insurance business, might turn out to be
20 Nintendo* hidden strengths in the world after coronavirus.
Entertainment has a social value, but so does
0 keeping people healthy and secure. “Right now,
1998 2000 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16 ‘18
what I can do is keep our employees safe,”
Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding
Yoshida said. “It is the most important thing.”
AP

*Including Nintendo Switch Source: IHS Markit

14 Nikkei Inc. No reproduction without permission. 15


BUSINESS

MANILA Philippine fast-food king Tony Tan Jollibee Foods OpenTable, a U.S. restaurant booking service.
COMPANY IN FOCUS Caktiong has always wanted to rule the world. In March alone the industry lost over 3 million

DOMINATION
The largest fast-food
“Since the start of Jollibee Foods 40 years ago, chain in the Philippines jobs and $25 billion in sales, according to the
I have always dreamed [for] it to be the largest National Restaurant Association, an industry lobby
Founded, main office
food company” on the planet, Tan Caktiong 1978, Pasig, Philippines
group, which has called for a government rescue.

ON HOLD
told shareholders in June 2018, explaining his “This will make it even tougher for management
decision to buy struggling Denver, Colorado-based Revenue (2019) to get them [Smashburger and Coffee Bean] to
hamburger chain Smashburger. 179.63 billion pesos
profitability,” Raymond Franco, vice president
(US$3.56 billion)*
But after upping the ante in 2019 with the and head of research at Manila brokerage Abacus
purchase of California-based Coffee Bean & Tea Key executive Securities, told Nikkei. “So, I think expansion plans
Leaf and going up against the likes of international will be on hold for at least the next year or two.”
Jollibee’s quest for a global restaurant empire
Tony Tan Caktiong, Chairman
powerhouses such as Starbucks and Dunkin’ Further trouble awaits at home, where a
*At current rates
Donuts, Tan Caktiong’s dreams have met with a lockdown by President Rodrigo Duterte across the

will have to wait until after the pandemic harsher reality.


Not only are both U.S. acquisitions still losing
island of Luzon, the Philippines’ economic engine,
will likely throw the country into recession.
money, but the coronavirus pandemic has blown a “There is strong correlation between Jollibee’s
gaping hole in Jollibee’s 2020 revenue forecasts. revenues and profits and gross domestic product,”
Shares in Jollibee Foods have plunged 25% this Franco said. He expects up to $600 million in
year, forcing the company to drastically rethink its system-wide sales losses for Jollibee during the
CLIFF VENZON Nikkei staff writer
global expansion plans. lockdown, and even a recovery in the second half
“My biggest concern on Jollibee Foods is “unlikely to offset a significant portion of the
Corporation is that the COVID-19 situation lost sales.”
exacerbates things for Smashburger and CBTL Pia Magalong, consumer analyst at Regina
and pushes back their break-even periods versus Capital Development, a local brokerage, said
what management internally expects,” Renzo the consumer sector in the Philippines will be
Candano, analyst at Daiwa Securities, told the especially hard hit.
Nikkei Asian Review. “We are looking beyond 2020 before Jollibee
Since January 2019, investors have wiped nearly returns to normalcy,” said Magalong, adding that
$4 billion from Jollibee’s market capitalization -- she expects core earnings to be lower this year.
around 55% of the company’s value -- as the two According to Magalong, people will continue
money-losing U.S. acquisitions squeezed profit to observe physical distancing even after the
margins to an 18-year low, according to FactSet data. lockdown, posing a challenge for restaurants
Jollibee’s current market value of $3.2 billion hoping to see a pickup in foot traffic.
puts it in 18th on the list of the world’s largest “I think we are seeing a shift in consumer
restaurant companies, according to FactSet, a far behavior -- more home cooking and food delivery,”
cry from the top-five position Tan Caktiong wants.
Of key concern to investors was Jollibee’s
acquisition of loss-making Coffee Bean, which has
over a thousand outlets in 27 countries, for $330
Jollibee Foods’ earnings growth slows amid expansion
(In billions of pesos)
million, and its 2018 decision to up its 40% stake in
System-wide sales* Net income
struggling Smashburger to 100%.
The deal valued Smashburger at $210 million 250 10
and deepened Jollibee’s exposure in America’s 200 8
brutally competitive restaurant sector.
Jollibee had looked to turn those assets around 150 6
in 2021, but the pandemic has cast new doubts on 100 4
A culinary icon in the Philippines, those goals, with Coffee Bean and Smashburger
Jollibee was hoping to open 600 stores continuing to burn cash. 50 2
Cliff Venzon

this year, over half of them overseas.


Restaurant reservations and visits in many U.S. 0 0
But the coronavirus pandemic 2015 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 2015 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19
has pushed those plans back. states started plummeting in February and fell
to zero in April, according to data compiled by *Sales from franchised and company-owned stores Source: Jollibee Foods Corporation

16 Nikkei Inc. No reproduction without permission. 17


BUSINESS

tasted international success by opening A Smashburger outlet in


Jollibee Foods’ global presence
outlets in countries with large Filipino Manhattan: Jollibee is yet to turn
Number of Jollibee stores, subsidiaries and affiliate stores communities, especially in the U.S. and around the American burger chain
(As of February 2020) Canada that it took over in 2018.
the Middle East, but that expansion has
Kuwait
U.K. Bahrain South Korea continued across Asia with the acquisition
Oman Hong Kong U.S.
of China’s Yonghe King and Highlands for a reason,” Franco said. “My view

Cliff Venzon
Italy China
Macao Coffee and Pho24 in Vietnam. is that Jollibee doesn’t need another
Saudi Vietnam Jollibee’s flagship brand outsells all headache at this point and management
Arabia India Guam
1,000 American rivals at home. Together with is still smarting from the huge hit to the
Qatar Brunei its sister brands that include Red Ribbon share price after acquiring CBTL.”
500
UAE Malaysia Bakeshop, Greenwich Pizza and the local Jollibee did not respond to a request
Burger King franchise, today Jollibee and drive-thru business channels.” earlier this year with a $600 million bond for comment from Nikkei, but in an
Indonesia 100
Singapore controls over half of the Philippines’ $5 Some analysts also argue that while issue, the first time it had tapped capital April 7 report to the stock exchange,
billion fast-food market. the virus has wreaked havoc on the markets since its initial public offering Tanmantiong said Jollibee was hoping
In the Philippines Still, despite dominating the domestic food service industry generally, the in 1993. customer loyalty would help restore
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 quick-service restaurant sector, Jollibee current crisis could also present buying Abacus Securities’ Franco noted that business once the pandemic recedes.
Jollibee
has struggled to shield itself against opportunities. while the opportunity for cheap assets “We believe that our consumers
Mang Inasal the pandemic. Jollibee has previously stated that it was “plausible,” the case for major new will continue patronizing strongly our
Chowking One potential bright spot is China, wants to have six brands in the U.S., and acquisitions in the U.S. remained weak. products and services, once constraints
Red Ribbon
where Jollibee is back on its feet after that the company remains on the hunt for “Any asset that might become available related to the control of the COVID-19 are
Greenwich
CBTL temporarily closing 107 of its 342 stores affordable assets that it can grow. at a cheaper price will probably be cheap lifted,” Tanmantiong said.
Burger King at the height of the epidemic there in “If Jollibee’s management is still in
Highlands Coffee
February, according to a report to the acquisition mode, which might be the
PHO24 1 Coffee Bean locations end of 2018;
Panda Express Philippine Stock Exchange made in April. case, now might actually be a good time
1 Smashburger locations outside U.S. not reflected
Jollibee Foods’ share price falls despite expansion (In Philippine pesos) 8
Source: Jollibee press releases And while dine-in services at most U.S. for acquisitions because the COVID-19
7 9
outlets have been suspended, Jollibee has situation may lower the valuations of 400 1 2 3 10
6
moved quickly to capitalize on the surge some restaurant brands on the market,” 5 11
300
in demand for home delivery. 4 12
Magalong said. “I don’t think this trend greater organic store expansion than in Daiwa’s Candano said.
200
will end after the lockdown is lifted.” the Philippines. “While the COVID-19 pandemic has While much of the attention on Jollibee’s
Already, Jollibee’s net income fell While meeting that target might have brought unprecedented disruption to U.S. operations has focused on the $540 100
21.7% to 6.43 billion pesos ($127 million) calmed some critics, Franco believes our operations in the Philippines and million outlay for Smashburger and Coffee 0
last year partly on losses from its U.S. Jollibee had no choice but to preserve other parts of the world, we are already Bean, Jollibee’s foray into Mexican concept Dec. Mar. June Sept. Dec. Mar. June Sept. Dec. Apr.
2017 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20
assets. Excluding valuation gains from liquidity amid the crisis. planning for the full restoration of dining in 2018 shows that the company is
the acquisition of Coffee Bean, recurring For Jollibee’s founder, who is the son our operations,” Jollibee CEO Ernesto also prepared to grow smaller businesses. 2018
earnings fell 51%, according to Daiwa’s of poor immigrants from China’s Fujian Tanmantiong, the founder’s younger After paying $12.4 million for a 47% 1 Feb. 13 Jollibee takes control of Smashburger, bringing stake to 85% from 40%
estimates. Province, overcoming the pandemic brother, told the stock exchange. stake in Tortas Frontera, a restaurant 2 Dec. 14 Jollibee becomes 100% owner of Smashburger
Overall sales, meanwhile, rose 14.9% to looms as one of the biggest challenges of “We expect growth to resume even if founded by celebrity chef Rick Bayless, 2019
243.79 billion pesos after absorbing Coffee his career. gradually, driven by our delivery, take out Tan Caktiong and Bayless launched the 3 July 24 Jollibee announces deal to buy Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf for $350 million
Bean onto its books. As of February, Starting out on just a dream in 1975, Tortazo restaurant in Chicago in January 2020
the company had 3,317 stores in the Tan Caktiong founded Jollibee as an ice with plans to add another in New York 4 Jan. 16 Jollibee announces $600 million bond sale, first time to tap capital market since
Philippines and 2,664 abroad. cream parlor in downtown Manila. next year. 1993 IPO
In a further sign of its downbeat In the nearly five decades since, he has Analysts also point to Jollibee’s decision 5 Feb. 10 Jollibee shuts down a third of China stores as coronavirus spreads
prospects for this year, Jollibee has slashed turned it into an unlikely phenomenon in 2018 not to engage in a bidding war for 6 18 Jollibee says 2019 income fell 14% (unaudited income)
its capital expenditures to 5 billion pesos that has captivated Filipino tastes -- and British sandwich and coffee chain Pret A 7 Mar. 12 Duterte announces lockdown of Metro Manila
Jollibee founder
from a record spending program of 14 baffled foreigners -- with an idiosyncratic and Chairman Manger -- which was eventually sold to 8 16 Duterte announces lockdown of vital Luzon Island until April 12
billion pesos. mixes such as sweet-sauce spaghetti Tony Tan Caktiong. JAB Holdings for $2 billion, twice amount 9 26 U.S. officially becomes epicenter of the new coronavirus
Jollibee had planned to open 600 stores studded with hot dog pieces and Jollibee said it was prepared to pay -- as 10 Apr. 6 Duterte extends Luzon lockdown to April 30
this year, more than half of them overseas, chunks of ham and hamburgers a sign that Tan Caktiong has been able to 11 7 Jollibee declares 62 centavo per share cash dividend, explains COVID-19 impact
Keiicihro Asahara

a move that would have made 2020 the enhanced with sweet show restraint. on business
first year in the company’s history when ketchup-mayo dressing. Overall, said Candano, Jollibee has a 12 24 Duterte extends lockdown of Manila and nearby areas to May 15
its international business generated Tan Caktiong first healthy balance sheet, which it shored up Source: QUICK-FactSet

18 Nikkei Inc. No reproduction without permission. 19


BUSINESS

Spirited defiance
trillion yuan, or $225 billion, far surpass- price to 1,381.30 yuan from 1,207.00 yuan.
ing better-known competitors like Diageo, Moutai shares closed at 1,279.13 yuan the
at around $80 billion. day after the earnings announcement.
The scale of its success is all the more Mark Yuan, an equity analyst at Jefferies
As China’s alcohol makers struggle during the coronavirus, apparent when compared with some of its Hong Kong, maintained a buy rating with
Kweichow Moutai’s sales of ‘baijiu’ soar with the help of brand recognition Chinese peers. Rival baijiu maker Sichuan a target price of 1,480 yuan. “We expect
Swellfun, more familiar to Chinese con- there is little impact from COVID-19 on
KENJI KAWASE Nikkei Asian Review chief business news correspondent sumers by its brand name, Shuijingfang, its growth, given the underlying demand
saw sales drop 22% and net profit fall 13% growth is much higher than its supply
from the same period last year. Swellfun’s growth,” he said. Reflecting the general
operating cash flow shrank 67%, while market view, he expects “resilient growth
Moutai’s jumped 94% to 2.3 billion yuan. to continue in the rest of the year.”
TOKYO The coronavirus has paralyzed Kweichow Moutai, a distiller of The latest figures continue a streak of Other Chinese drink makers also had Anson Chan at Daiwa Capital Markets
the Chinese economy and cut down on so- baijiu, a sorghum-based liquor, has stellar growth for the company, which is a devastating first quarter. Zhejiang in Hong Kong, however, has doubts,
bucked the sharp downturn
cializing and drinking at restaurants and based from the underdeveloped south- Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine, which pointing to a fall in customer deposits on
in China’s alcoholic drinks industry,
bars, but one of the country’s most famous partly due to its image as the western province of Guizhou. makes huangjiu, a pale yellow rice wine, its balance sheet to 6.9 billion yuan as of
spirit brands has made merry regardless. “state liquor.” Kweichow Moutai’s shares, listed in saw sales fall 42%. Its peer Shanghai the end of March, almost 40% lower than

Getty Images
Kweichow Moutai, a state-owned Shanghai, have risen 7% this year until Jinfeng Wine said the pandemic “basically a year ago. “We see risk in Moutai’s reve-
distiller that makes the sorghum-based the end of April, compared with an 6% brought social dining to a halt” as it was nue growth in the near term, due to order
hard liquor baijiu, bucked the downtrend decline for the Shanghai Composite Index. dragged to a net loss in the first quarter. book weakness, as indicated in the decline
with a 13% year-on-year rise in sales Despite governance concerns, Kweichow It was a similar story for the coun- in customer deposits,” she said, keeping a
for the January to March quarter. Its net Moutai has become one of the most valu- try’s top two brewers, China Resources Moutai was served at a famous hold rating on the company’s shares.
profit climbed 17% to 13.09 billion yuan able companies in the global spirits indus- Beer and Tsingtao Brewery, where turn- 1972 banquet when Chinese What could be more worrying, espe-
($1.85 billion). try, with a market capitalization of 1.59 over during the first two months of the Premier Zhou Enlai hosted U.S. cially for non-Chinese investors, is Moutai’s
President Richard Nixon.
year dropped more than 20%. The coun- governance structure. The company’s con-
try’s total beer production in the first trolling shareholder is Kweichow Moutai
three months slid 33.8% to 5.495 million Group, which owns 58% of its shares.
kiloliters. The parent, in turn, is 100% owned by the
What makes Moutai different has a lot Guizhou provincial government, which is
to do with its brand image as the “state controlled by the Communist Party.
liquor.” It has long been served at state As its competitors Early in March, the company’s board
banquets, including one hosted in 1972 by struggle, we expect said it had received a recommendation to
Premier Zhou Enlai at the Great Hall of the [Moutai] to maintain appoint Gao Weidong as its new chairman,
People in Beijing to entertain visiting U.S. in accordance with the provincial govern-
President Richard Nixon. momentum ment’s directive. The 47-year-old Gao is a
Later, bottles of the spirit became prized throughout the party member and a technocrat who rose
gifts and a target for speculators, though it remainder [of 2020], through the local bureaucracy. He has
suffered at the height of the anti-corruption no experience in the company or in the
campaign by President Xi Jinping. a year fraught with distillery business. He was most recently
“KCMT [Moutai] benefited from its uncertainty the head of the province’s transportation
brand, which enjoys widespread recog- department.
nition in China,” said Kevin Sun of CCB Back in December, Kweichow Moutai
International Securities, after the compa- Kevin Sun Group suddenly transferred 4% of
ny’s quarterly earnings announcement CCB International Securities Kweichow Moutai’s shares to the Guizhou
was made. “As its competitors struggle, government free of charge. Applying the
we expect [Moutai] to maintain momen- share price then, the transaction would
tum throughout the remainder [of 2020], a have been worth about 60 billion yuan.
year fraught with uncertainty.” The move, according to the listed com-
The analyst at the Hong Kong-based unit pany’s filing, was based on a “claim made
Reuters

of China Construction Bank maintained the through relevant notice” from the finan-
stock’s outperform rating, raising its target cially troubled provincial government.

20 Nikkei Inc. No reproduction without permission. 21


BUSINESS

China, three companies and research


institutes are believed to be receiving Make in India, Organization to develop test kits are
Mylab, Medsource Ozone Biomedicals,
May 17, has helped slow the spread of
the disease.
government support to fund, plan clinical Voxtur Bio and Alpine Biomedicals. “We have progressively scaled up [test-
trials for and produce vaccine candidates.
The country has prioritized proving their
COVID-style The change comes amid reliability con-
cerns about the kits supplied by Chinese
ing],” Lav Agarwal, joint secretary at the
Ministry of Health and Family Welfare,
effectiveness over safety, allowing devel- manufacturers Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech told a media briefing on April 30. “From
opment to move quickly.
New Delhi rejects China test and Zhuhai Livzon Diagnostics. a few hundred per day, we have come to
One of the trio, CanSino Biologics, has kits, boosts domestic output The Indian Council of Medical Research the level where 58,686 tests had been done
become the first player in the world to on April 27 told local governments to in the country [on April 29], with 49,800
enter second-phase clinical trials, which KIRAN SHARMA Nikkei staff writer stop using tests made by the two Chinese RT-PCR tests on an average, per day, in the
gauge efficacy. The goal is to commercial- companies and return them to suppliers, last five days.”
ize a vaccine by the end of the year -- a feat after it found that results from the kits Experts, however, say India, a country
that could boost China’s diplomatic clout. showed wide variation, “despite early of over 1.3 billion, must do much more on
The U.K. has announced 20 million NEW DELHI India is ramping up domes- promise of good performance for surveil- the testing front.
pounds ($25 million) for Oxford University tic production of coronavirus testing kits lance purposes.” The country needs to do about 2 million
to aid its vaccine project. A recently an- as questions are raised about the accuracy Ji Rong, a spokesperson for the Chinese tests a day if it is to get the level of con-
Countries are investing in coronavirus
nounced partnership by the university and of rapid antibody kits supplied by Chinese Embassy in India, slammed the decision, fidence seen in the U.S., said Raghuram
vaccine research that would prioritize

Reuters
domestic supplies. AstraZeneca aims to churn out 100 million manufacturers. saying, “It is unfair and irresponsible for Rajan, former head of India’s central bank,
doses by year-end and prioritize supply to The government hopes the move, certain individuals to label Chinese prod- in a video call on April 30 with Rahul
the U.K. which involves halting all testing using the ucts as ‘faulty’ and look at issues with Gandhi, leader of the country’s main oppo-
The European Union has also stepped Chinese products, will enable it to double preemptive prejudice.” sition force, the Indian National Congress.

National priorities up, offering 80 million euros ($88 million)


to a key German vaccine maker in a likely
testing capacity to 100,000 per day.
“We will have indigenous production
The Indian government, meanwhile,
continues to stress that the RT-PCR test is
“Clearly, we are nowhere near that.”
Rajan said, stressing the need for mass
attempt to ensure that the company priori- of good-quality antibody kits, and also the most reliable method to check for the testing.
Coordinated global efforts for a COVID-19 vaccine take tizes the bloc over the U.S. the [RT-PCR] kits for detection of the virus. Such tests are being conducted at Archana Jyoti, a New Delhi-based
But the EU lacks a single agency run- virus. I think all this is going to come in nearly 400 government and private labo- health columnist, pointed out that India is
a back seat as countries pour money into company research ning point on vaccine development, pos- the next couple of weeks,” Health Minister ratories across the country. When India’s doing only about 600 tests per million peo-
sibly slowing efforts there. Harsh Vardhan said on April 30 in an first coronavirus case came to light -- on ple. “Obviously, the country needs to scale
NORIYUKI TAKADA and MINORU SATAKE Nikkei staff writers
“Currently, Europe has no BARDA online meeting with civil society and Jan. 30 -- only one lab performed that test. up testing. But at the same time, the health
equivalent, meaning that the EU has lim- nongovernmental organizations. As of the end of April, India had tested infrastructure must be strengthened,” she
ited vaccine manufacturing capabilities Domestic production will also help to more than 830,200 samples, confirming said, noting that more tests could lead to
TOKYO/LONDON Countries around the with Johnson & Johnson to develop capac- and countries are independently respon- meet the target of conducting 100,000 tests 33,610 cases of coronavirus, including additional positive cases, which would
world are shoveling huge sums at drug ity for a billion-plus doses. sible for stockpiling medical supplies and a day by May 31, Vardhan said at another 1,075 deaths. The nationwide lockdown, require having sufficient medical facilities
companies to aid development, clinical Biotechnology company Moderna has medications,” wrote Paul Hudson, CEO of event. which is scheduled to remain in force until in place.
trials and mass production of COVID-19 announced a BARDA award of up to France’s Sanofi, in a commentary piece on The RT-PCR, or reverse transcription
vaccines, overshadowing coordinated $483 million for its vaccine candidate. The Fortune magazine’s website. “This leads polymerase chain reaction, a molecular
global efforts. agency is believed to have committed to to competition for scarce resources. We probe that authorities call the “gold stan-

Reuters
The U.S. Biomedical Advanced Research buying the product in quantity even be- can do better; I’ve called for the creation of dard” test to detect the virus, is conducted
and Development Authority has poured fore efficacy is established. a European BARDA equivalent to help us by examining a sample from a nasal or
$1.2 billion into the hunt since early The U.S. aims to have hundreds of build regional capacities.” throat swab. The results take up to eight
March, when the pandemic began to gain millions of doses available by January, The Japan Agency for Medical Research hours to come back.
momentum in America. The office was according to Anthony Fauci, who heads and Development has extended assistance Among the local companies authorized
created in 2006 under the U.S. Department the National Institute of Allergy and to vaccine developers, though it is limited by the Central Drugs Standard Control
of Health and Human Services to help Infectious Diseases and sits on the White in size and scope. With no guarantee of
protect the nation from bioterrorism and House coronavirus task force. foreign-made vaccines quickly reaching
other threats. “You don’t wait until you get an answer Japanese shores, the country will likely A doctor uses a nasal swab to
BARDA is investing in not only the before you start manufacturing,” he has need to help domestic developers increase test a girl for the coronavirus
vaccines themselves, but also their supply said. “You, at risk, proactively, start mak- their production capabilities as well. in Ahmedabad, India, on April 30.
The government authorized several
chains, so that they can quickly be distrib- ing it, assuming it’s going to work.” domestic companies to make test
uted to the public once approved. It has Other countries are also ramping up Additional reporting by Taisei Hoyama kits after finding problems with
jointly committed more than $1 billion support for vaccine development. In in Washington. Chinese products.

22 Nikkei Inc. No reproduction without permission. Read more at asia.nikkei.com 23


BUSINESS

‘Social distancing’ stocks jump have seen their stock prices double since
the end of last year. U.S.-based online
study help platform Chegg and Chinese
Nintendo is among the companies driving Japan’s tutoring service provider GSX Techedu are
soaring. Peloton Interactive, the American
market rebound in the new stay-at-home world company behind the indoor-workout plat-
form, has trended higher.
Hundreds of thousands of patents RYO SAEKI and TAKEHIRO HASEGAWA Nikkei staff writers
Among health-related stocks, Chugai
Photos by Reuters

are expected to be released.


Pharmaceutical, which has announced
plans for a clinical trial using its Actemra
About 20 Japanese companies are arthritis medication to treat patients with
cooperating with the initiative. coronavirus-induced pneumonia, is up
TOKYO Companies poised to benefit the Nikkei average. 27% compared with the end of last year.
from the changes wrought by the corona- In the U.S. stock market, Netflix and “Awareness of public health will grow

Patently tive. The group’s office will be located at


GenoConcierge Kyoto, a startup launched
medical intervention.
Patents have many benefits for com-
virus pandemic have emerged as drivers
of a budding recovery in Japan’s stock
Microsoft are going strong. In Europe,
Germany-based meal kit delivery ser-
across the world, and the medical field
will expand further,” said Tetsuro Ii, pres-
out of Kyoto University. panies and research organizations. Usu- market. vice HelloFresh and British online grocer ident of Tokyo-based Commons Asset
generous All patents, utility model rights, de-
sign rights and copyrights owned by
ally other companies that want to use a
patent negotiate with the holder, but that
The Nikkei Stock Average rose 422
points, or 2%, on April 30 to close above
Ocado have soared.
Remote services are going mainstream.
Management.
That said, the pandemic threatens
each company will, in principle, be made often takes one to two years because of 20,000 for the first time in nearly two M3, the Japanese operator of a medical to create a fierce struggle for corporate
Toyota and Canon among free of charge as long as they are used for internal decision-making processes at the months and recover more than 20% from news platform for physicians around the survival in a low-growth world. In the
companies freeing their fighting the coronavirus. The companies owning company. But under the coopera- a low plumbed in March. world, remains in its record-high range U.S., investor money is concentrating in
patents to fight the virus will not exercise their exclusive intel- tive arrangement, patents that will be re- As expectations build for reopening and is up 18% compared with the end of tech giants like Google, Amazon.com,
lectual property rights until the World leased can be used immediately and free locked-down economies around the world, last year. Medley, a Tokyo-based medical Microsoft and Facebook.
NIKKEI STAFF WRITERS Health Organization declares the global of charge, thus bypassing extended negoti- investors are hunting for companies able records software developer that went pub- “As businesses and people refrain
pandemic has ended. Several hundred ations. Opening up the patents also avoids to respond to the demands of a new era lic in December, has seen its price more from active behavior, the global poten-
thousand patents are expected to be the risk that other companies would not be of living with the virus. Three key themes than double. tial growth rate stands lower than be-
opened via the cooperative effort. able to use the desired patent because of in this search are “no contact,” “at home” With demand high for telemedicine, fore the coronavirus outbreak,” said
TOKYO About 20 Japanese companies, One notable item among patents that a failure to reach an agreement on condi- and “medical.” U.S.-based Teladoc Health and China’s Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at
including Toyota Motor and Canon, will will be released by Toyota is technology tions such as usage fees. “Now that people have learned the Alibaba Health Information Technology Daiwa Securities.
release patents and other intellectual that can collect respiratory data from Ideally, the new arrangement will help advantages of not going into the work-
property held in Japan and overseas for coronavirus patients without coming into smooth the development of testing kits, place or to the hospital, their behavior
free to help fight the new coronavirus, physical contact with them. It was orig- machines to diagnose the medical condi- will fundamentally change,” said Hiroshi
Nikkei has learned. inally developed for use in nursing care tion of patients, devices to remotely trans- Matsumoto, head of Japan investment at
The goal is to make it easier for busi- robots. If doctors can more safely monitor mit information, alcohol-based sanitizers Pictet Asset Management in Tokyo.
nesses and research organizations to de- patients’ breathing, then they can deter- and other medical products. Companies that support telework or
velop medical devices as well as testing mine if they have pneumonia. The compa- Companies that release their patents serve homebound consumers have ridden
and treatment technologies. The hope is ny’s production technology, which limits will not receive any direct benefit, but a this trend to higher valuations. With a re-
that it will lead to a faster resolution of the inventory and costs to the bare minimum, faster end to the coronavirus pandemic cent surge, video game maker Nintendo’s
crisis, which threatens to seriously affect is likely to be a plus in making diagnostic would help minimize the impact of the market capitalization surpassed that of
the global economy. machinery and pharmaceutical products. economic downturn it has brought about. Tokyo Disney Resort operator Oriental
The idea was initially proposed by Shimadzu’s small-scale X-ray equip- The organizers of the initiative created Land, a leader in the pandemic-ravaged
professor Fumihiko Matsuda, head of ment, meanwhile, is also likely to attract a way for each company to easily partic- entertainment sector. Shares of the com-
the Center for Genomic Medicine at the attention. The lungs of patients with ipate so as to increase the effectiveness pany behind escapist hit Animal Crossing
Graduate School of Medicine at Kyoto COVID-19 often leave distinctive shapes of freeing up the patents by drastically are up around 1.5% since the end of last
University. Nissan Motor, Honda Motor, in X-ray images. The company’s smaller streamlining the amount of time it would year, compared with a 14.6% decline by
Shimadzu, Ajinomoto Group and Tokyo- devices will help hospitals flooded with normally take. Organizers simplified
based SRL, a member of the Miraca Group, the infected to take images more effi- procedures so that companies need only
will also participate. ciently. That would help in determining download documents from a dedicated A Nintendo store in Tokyo:

Reuters
Organizers will continue to call on a the severity of each case, along with key website, sign them and upload them back The video game company’s
wide range of companies to join the initia- determinations such as the best timing for in order to join. market valuation has leapt.

24 Nikkei Inc. No reproduction without permission. 25


THROUGH THE LENS

The safety
dance
Performers wearing protective
face shields perform at the Erawan
Shrine in Bangkok on May 4. The
previous day, some restaurants,
parks and barbershops were
allowed to reopen as the
government started relaxing
COVID-19 restrictions.
Photo by Akira Kodaka

26 27
POLITICS & ECONOMY

Number of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases figures for the six categories to gauge so-
cial distancing efforts in key economies.
India Singapore Indonesia Philippines Japan Malaysia
In Japan’s case, the average was down by
Greater China South Korea Thailand Vietnam Taiwan Peak
13.83%, largely thanks to a 46% decrease
2,400 in traffic through transit stations and 31%
315 (Mar. 16) 15,152 (Feb. 13) 813 (Feb. 29) drop in retail and recreation activity.
2,000
252 (Mar. 29) 24 (Mar. 23) 27 (Mar. 20) But Japan’s social distancing pales in
1,600 comparison to the Philippines and India,
which saw average declines of 50.83% and
1,200
47.83% respectively. Malaysia was just

Illustration by Michael Tsang


800 behind at 47.50%, followed by Singapore
at 36.16%, amid the city-state’s struggle
New Zealand, Vietnam, Thailand 400 to control big clusters in migrant worker
and Malaysia have recently dormitories.
0
gambled on gingerly restarting 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 30 The Philippines, land of President
their economies, despite the risk of Apr.
a new wave of infections. Rodrigo Duterte’s war on drugs, has taken
Source: World Health Organization, Taiwan Centers for Disease Control
a decidedly less deadly but similarly enthu-
siastic approach to enforcing its lockdown.

THE
ASIA INSIGHT Over 30,000 people have been arrested for
the call: While daily new cases dropped to new case clusters, essential for resuming violating the orders, according to reports.
about 200 at the end of April, less than a normal social and economic activities.” Since mid-March, residents on the main
third of the peak of 743 on April 12, that is Google’s data shows the Japanese public island of Luzon have been barred from
not enough. has been fairly cooperative so far, though leaving home except for essential outings

BIG PICTURE
Malaysia, before it reopened much not to the point of reducing contact by 80% for food or medicine. Only one household
of the economy on May 4, had not seen as the government originally hoped. member is allowed out at a time and they
a triple-digit increase since April 17. The U.S. tech company has released must carry a permit to pass street-corner
Thailand, which eased its lockdown on movement data from scores of countries, checkpoints manned by the police and the
May 3, had gone days with fewer than covering six categories: retail and recre- military. The restrictions are expected to
10. Vietnam put up a two-week streak of ation, grocery stores and pharmacies, parks, last at least until May 15.
zeros, with a couple of exceptions. transit stations, workplaces and residential India on May 1 extended the “world’s
Now Abe is counting on Japan’s 127 mil- areas. Activity on April 17, a Friday, was largest lockdown” to May 17. Large seg-
Our deep dive into the COVID-19 data shows that lion people to help “flatten the curve” fur- compared to median Friday traffic between ments of the economy remain shut down
Japan, India and the Philippines are at key junctures ther. For although the country has avoided
the grimmest scenarios, limiting the health
Jan. 3 and Feb. 6, before the crisis fully ex-
ploded out of China.
and anyone caught flouting the rules can
face imprisonment.
ministry’s death total to 510 as of May 4, it The Nikkei Asian Review averaged the “India didn’t wait for the problem to
AKANE OKUTSU and MITSURU OBE Nikkei staff writers has the region’s highest median age -- 48.6
-- in a pandemic that threatens the elderly
and infirm the most. The nation logged Tokyo’s famous Shibuya
double-digit deaths on all but a handful of crossing, pictured
TOKYO The Philippines and India have victory, they need more sustainable long- gambled on gingerly restarting their econ- days in the second half of April. on May 2, is far less
imposed some of the strictest coronavirus term battle plans. omies in recent days, despite the risk of “Having successfully bent the curve, crowded than usual.
containment measures in Asia. Japan has This is one of the takeaways from the a new wave of infections. Japan’s Prime the challenge for the Abe administration
taken a far less draconian approach, under Nikkei Asian Review’s dive into the deep Minister Shinzo Abe made a different bet may now be reducing the number of new
a loose state of emergency. But in a way, pool of data generated in a crisis that on May 4, extending the emergency until infections to a sustainable level, ensuring
these very different countries stand at a has touched virtually every corner of the the end of May to try to eradicate the virus. that the medical system has the resources
similar point in the fight against this dev- world. From Google mobility tracking to Abe did say he would cut the emer- to manage the outbreak until therapeutics
astating pandemic. simple trends in tests, cases and deaths, gency short if conditions improve enough, or a vaccine are developed,” Tobias Harris,

Arisa Moriyama
At least according to the official fig- we compiled the numbers to gain a firmer but the extension is still another blow to an Japan analyst at Teneo Intelligence, wrote
ures, their infections and deaths are well grasp of the situation. economy the International Monetary Fund in a note on May 1. “The government
below those in the U.S. and hardest-hit Some countries -- New Zealand, already expects will contract 5.2% in 2020. needs more time to implement a system
European countries. Yet, short of a clear Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia -- have The data tells the story of why he made that will enable it to detect and contain

28 Nikkei Inc. No reproduction without permission. 29


POLITICS & ECONOMY

Changes in public mobility (April 17 compared to baseline, in percent) [escalate],” Prime Minister Narendra Taiwan’s government worked with mes- Scope of COVID-19 testing
Modi said on April 14, about three weeks saging app provider Line and smartphone 0 5 10 15 20 25

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into the lockdown. “Rather, we attempted maker HTC to develop an app that checks

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Had India not adopted a holistic and in- South Korea 619,881
Philippines –79 –56 –53 –85 –71 39 –50.83
tegrated approach, taking quick and de- use of big data and health IDs to ensure fair Malaysia 154,203
India –85 –43 –60 –65 –65 31 –47.83 cisive action, the situation in India today distribution of surgical masks. Vietnam 261,004
Malaysia –81 –44 –59 –80 –61 40 –47.50 would have been completely different.” South Korea has been using data from Taiwan 62,844
Singapore –60 –17 –57 –65 –65 47 –36.16 Indeed, India has logged 40,000-plus cellphones, credit card transactions and Japan 164,255
Thailand –49 –19 –48 –62 –33 21 –31.66 total cases and over 1,500 deaths -- serious even security camera footage to track the
Thailand 66,371 Total
Vietnam –51 –30 –35 –54 –25 18 –29.50 but not staggering numbers in a country movements of people found to be infected.
Philippines 93,387
Indonesia –38 –23 –35 –58 –35 18 –28.50 of 1.3 billion. The Philippines has detected This information is shared with the public
Japan –31 4 –1 –46 –23 14 –13.83 around 9,000 infections, with about 600 so that others can avoid at-risk locations. India 830,201
Tests per 1,000 people
Hong Kong –23 –1 –10 –37 –21 18 –12.33 deaths. Both nations may be helped by Seoul seems to have learned from the Indonesia 72,351
their youth, with a median age of 24 in the Middle East respiratory syndrome crisis in
South Korea –23 –7 –19 –20 –6 9 –11.00 As of May 1 Source: Our World in Data
Philippines and 28 in India. On the other 2015. Back then, the authorities initially re-
Taiwan –8 2 2 –15 3 3 –2.16
hand, the Philippines’ relatively high mor- fused to reveal the hospitals where MERS Number of infections per million people
Baseline is median value for corresponding day of week tality rate among confirmed coronavirus patients were treated, in the name of
during five-week period from Jan. 3 to Feb. 6, 2020 Source: Google 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
patients suggests its medical services are avoiding panic. Throughout the outbreak,
severely strained: 6.7% as of April 29, ver- which killed 35, the government was criti- Singapore 2,673.52
Deaths in proportion to population and confirmed cases
sus 3.2% in India and 2.9% in Japan. cized for a lack of transparency. South Korea 209.97
Deaths per 100,000 people Fatality rate (In percent) The fact that daily cases are still ris- After MERS, the government revised Malaysia 183.68

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0 2 4 6 8 10 ing in India and just plateauing in the a law to allow testing by private enti- Japan 111.39
Philippines also raises the question of how ties, which “enabled a fast response” to Philippines 74.94
Philippines
much even the tightest lockdowns can the new coronavirus, according to Kim China 58.32
South Korea
achieve in densely populated countries. Myoung-jung, associate fellow at the NLI Thailand 42.32
China
With so many variables -- population, Research Institute. Indonesia 35.72
Malaysia economic development, medical resources And this time, a virtuous circle of trust India 23.95
Japan -- one containment approach will never fit appears to have developed between Taiwan 18.01
Indonesia all. Still, as governments scramble to leave President Moon Jae-in’s government and Vietnam 2.77
Singapore this crisis behind, success stories could the public, as illustrated by the landslide As of April 30
Source: Our World in Data
Thailand light the way. win by Moon’s Democrats in the recent par-
India South Korea has limited daily cases liamentary vote. Kim noted that decades of
Taiwan to low double or single digits for weeks. tensions with North Korea have also made
Taiwan has also fared well: Its highest citizens more “willing to compromise their positive cases, and some degree of social guidelines on May 6, but the government
As of April 29 Source: Johns Hopkins University
single-day count in April was 22, and it information to protect the country.” distancing. He stressed that border restric- is implementing an “everyday quarantine”
has gone days with zero or only imported Nevertheless, epidemiologists warn tions alone are “not effective in the long -- safeguards that will remain indefinitely.
Number of COVID-19 deaths recorded per day infections. Both have seen their outbreaks that no place is immune to a COVID-19 term.” The key is to “test and isolate.” People will be advised to wear masks at
India Philippines Japan Indonesia South Korea peter out even though the Google data comeback. By some estimates, up to half of Hiroshi Nishiura, an expert advising indoor gatherings and try to stay 2 meters
Greater China Singapore Malaysia Thailand shows only an 11% decline in activity for all infected individuals are asymptomatic. Japan’s government, agrees that “lives are apart, among other advice.
100 South Korea and 2% for Taiwan. They can spread the virus without know- not going to be the same right away” once On May 4, the prime minister said at a
Upward revision of South Korea’s testing campaign has ing they have it. the state of emergency eventually ends, meeting that South Koreans must learn to
80 Wuhan’s death toll
been one of the more aggressive, checking So as countries look to get back to busi- perhaps not for a year. live with the virus as part of public life.
to 1,290 on April 17
60 12 people per 1,000 residents, versus just 1 ness, experts stress that a new set of long- Taiwan, for its part, still requires face But as cases decline and people yearn
in Japan. Taiwan has not tested nearly as haul measures will be needed. masks on public transportation and bans for normalcy, experts see a danger of com-
40
much. Its ratio is closer to Japan’s -- 2.6 per Kenji Shibuya, director of the Institute eating and drinking on high-speed rail- placency. Kim said “it remains to be seen
20 1,000 people. But two things South Korea of Population Health at King’s College ways. Temperature checks and hand san- how much the citizens comply.”
0
and Taiwan have in common are effective London, advises maintaining three types itizing have become part of the standard
1 5 10 15 20 25 30 use of technology and a widespread will- of defenses after relaxing restrictions: bor- restaurant experience. Additional reporting by Cheng Ting-Fang,
April Source: World Health Organization ingness to sacrifice privacy. der controls, PCR testing and isolation of South Korea relaxed its social distancing Lauly Li and Steven Borowiec.

30 Nikkei Inc. No reproduction without permission. 31


POLITICS & ECONOMY

the five major Southeast Asian nations.


For Vietnam, remittances accounted
for 6.5% of the country’s GDP. In several countries
Indonesia is likely to see a huge cut
in remittances from the Middle East, a across the region,
region that has been hit by a sharp de- over three-quarters
cline in oil prices. Remittances from Gulf of poor households
Cooperation Council states account for
43% of Indonesia’s total. rely on remittances
“My aunt informed our family that to complement their Indonesia could see a huge drop in
money transfer for February will be late,” remittances from the Middle East,
own earnings which has been hit by a sharp
said Ayra Ardhani, a college student in
decline in oil prices.
Pontianak, the capital of the Indonesian
province of West Kalimantan. The World Bank
Her aunt works as a nurse at a hospital worker in his 20s.
in Oman. Ardhani said that even though He usually sends home 700 to 900
her aunt’s workload has increased because Singapore dollars ($490 to $630), the ma-
“so many people are visiting [the] hospital countries could be at risk of seeing this im- jority of his monthly income, but that has
due to the COVID-19 panic,” the hospital portant source of income decline during now become impossible.
was late in paying her. this period.” The Singaporean government has said

Photos by Reuters
“I’m directly affected because her COVID-19 is also proving to be a prob- it would work with employers to en-
money transfers also cover my college lem for migrant workers in Southeast sure that foreign workers are paid, but
tuition, which should be paid by early Asian countries like Singapore. the Bangladeshi man is worried that the
March,” Ardhani said. From early April, the city-state shut wage support may not be enough for him
In another report, the World Bank high- down all workplaces except those for es- to send any money to his family.
lighted the importance of remittances to sential services. At the same time, an infec- He normally visits a branch of a

No work means no
Asia. “In several countries across the re- tion spike in migrant worker dormitories Bangladeshi bank to transfer money home.
A remittance counter in Makati City gion, over three-quarters of poor house- has meant that most migrant workers have But Bangladesh, too, has been in lock-
in Manila: Filipinos are expected to holds rely on remittances to complement been quarantined and cannot work. down, which has made it difficult for his

money to send home


suffer the most from a fall in their own earnings ... a substantial share “How can I send money home? I’m not family to receive any money he may send.
remittances from overseas as the
coronavirus pandemic leads to job
of households in East Asian and Pacific working,” said a Bangladeshi construction Neighboring Malaysia has around 3
losses and pay cuts. million migrant workers, of whom nearly
Southeast Asia in on pace to see record declines half are in irregular jobs. They work in so-
Migrant workers wait to be called 3D jobs -- “dirty, dangerous and dif-
in remittances as pandemic shutdowns cut migrant pay last year in remittances. The five largest transported to a medical facility ficult” -- that locals often shun.
countries in the region -- the Philippines, from their dormitory in Singapore World Bank data shows that Malaysia
SHOTARO TANI Nikkei staff writer on April 27.
Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam sends more remittances than Singapore
-- received a combined $72.5 billion. -- $9 billion in 2018. Around a third goes
Data for 2018, the latest year that reflects to Indonesia and another quarter to
JAKARTA The coronavirus pandemic has this year from $147 billion in 2019. bilateral flows, shows that the Philippines the Philippines.
already disrupted the lives of poor people “The slowdown is expected to be driven received just over a third of its total remit- “The outlook for remittance remains
across Southeast Asia. Now it is dealing a by declining inflows from the United States, tances from the U.S. as uncertain,” the World Bank said. “In
further blow by cutting a vital source of in- the largest source of remittances to the re- According to the Philippines’ Depart- the past, remittances have been counter-
come to the region -- remittances. gion,” the international institution said. ment of Labor and Employment, “a total cyclical, where workers send more money
In a recent report, the World Bank said “Several remittance-dependent countries ... of 89,436 overseas foreign workers were home in times of crisis and hardship back
that global remittances for this year are could see households at risk as remittance either displaced or on a no-work, no-pay home. This time, however, the pandemic
projected to fall by the widest margin in incomes decline over this period.” status due to lockdowns and slowdown of has affected all countries, creating addi-
history, as migrant workers suffer wage The Philippines is expected to feel the businesses in host countries.” tional uncertainties.”
cuts and job losses. Remittance flows to pinch the most as remittances are equiva- The U.S. also accounts for half of remit-
the East Asia and Pacific region, which in- lent to 9.9% of its gross domestic product. tances to Vietnam, the second-largest re- Additional reporting by Kentaro Iwamoto in
cludes Southeast Asia, is set to fall by 13% The country received $35.1 billion cipient of fund flows from overseas among Singapore and Ismi Damayanti in Jakarta.

32 Nikkei Inc. No reproduction without permission. 33


POLITICS & ECONOMY

Time for a new school


been growing. On April 27, the Democratic nent shift would “boost globalization.” He
Party for the People held a working group called the idea “one option” to a problem
meeting for the first time on the topic. It that has cropped up now that the virus

year in Japan? intends to work with other opposition par-


ties on proposals to submit to the govern-
ment. The smaller Japan Innovation Party
has closed public schools and the country
finds itself behind the e-learning curve --
students are falling behind.
Coronavirus disruptions rekindle the debate over compiled its own proposals the same day. Japan’s public schools have been closed
Such a change could be a catalyst for since the beginning of March and are ex-
a permanent September start to the academic calendar a “paradigm shift” in Japanese society, pected to remain so until sometime after
Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike said in a video the government lifts the state of emer-
AKANE OKUTSU and RURIKA IMAHASHI Nikkei staff writers

Reuters
posted online April 28 as the education gency that it declared on April 7.
minister’s comments. She noted that the In the meantime, only 5% of public
shift would change the schedule for ev- schools are holding online classes, accord-
TOKYO April marks the start of the ministries, since any revision would “need erything from preschool to job hunting for ing to an education ministry survey made
school year in Japan. But this could soon to be observed by society” as a whole. university students. in mid-April. for children to learn,” he said, “is to move Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike is pushing
become history. Corporations, for example, would have Calling a September start the “global Hagiuda is considered an advocate [the start of the school year] to September.” for school years to start in
The closure of schools due to the coro- to adjust their recruitment calendar and standard,” Koike argued that it would help for a September start to the school year. As things stand now, many public September, noting that this could
be a catalyst for a “paradigm shift”
navirus has rekindled talk of moving the practices. attract foreign students -- something that At the April 28 news conference he said: school teachers are simply giving assign- in Japanese society.
start of the academic year to September, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe chimed in has been an issue for Japanese schools. “The issues have already been sorted out ments to their homebound students, who
which would make it easier for Japanese the day after Hagiuda’s comments. “There would be some confusion, but at the Ministry of Education, Culture, are on their own to complete them.
to study overseas and for universities to “With such a big change happening, I things are already confused now,” she said. Sports, Science and Technology. In a glo- There are concerns that this arrange- hoping to align its calendar with those in
attract foreign students. The idea is attract- would like to consider a wide range of op- Calls for change are growing louder. balized society, it may be easier to accept ment will lead to unequal outcomes and the U.S., the U.K. and many other countries.
ing some powerful advocates. tions,” he said on April 29. He noted that Also on April 28, a group of 17 prefec- international students.” that students with few resources will be at At the time, the university said the April
Education Minister Koichi Hagiuda some have voiced the need for caution tural governors on urged the government He noted that it is imperative for the a disadvantage when they take the coun- start hindered its efforts to attract foreign
said on April 28 that his ministry is “con- because a change in the school calendar to adopt the September start, saying that national government, local governments, try’s competitive entrance exams. students and professors.
ducting simulations” for revising the April would greatly affect children, parents and “now is the time to think boldly.” educators and the leaders of Japanese in- “School days are precious for students,” Strong opposition from Japanese indus-
start of the school year “as one option.” He society as a whole. Miyagi Prefecture Gov. Yoshihiro Murai dustry to speak with one voice. 12th graders wrote on a website called try, which did not want to interrupt its tra-
also said he needs to coordinate with other Political support for this change has told reporters the day before that a perma- “The only way to secure opportunities Spring Once Again, “and events that we ditional recruitment efforts, helped put an
were looking forward to have been can- end to the debate at the time.
celed as we stay at home.” The site is part In Japan, spring graduations and the

Karina Nooka
of a campaign advocating for a move start of a new school year have been part
to September. of life since the Meiji era (1868-1912). Op-
The 12th graders also suggested that a position to shifting this calendar remains,
revised enrollment date would solve con- and laws would need to be revised.
fusion over university entrance exam and But Kamikubo said business will be
application procedures. The campaign more open to the idea this time around.
had over 2,300 signatures as of April 26, “Companies have come to realize that
according to a Twitter post. Japanese employment practices, like the
“Changing the academic year to start simultaneous recruiting of new graduates
in September also makes sense [when and lifetime employment, are not sustain-
it comes to accepting] more foreign stu- able,” he said. “Rather, the new academic
dents,” said Masato Kamikubo, a professor year would give companies more oppor-
at Ritsumeikan University, who pointed tunities to gain global talent.”
out that the government has been trying to He warns that if Japan misses this op-
increase the number of international stu- portunity there will be no second chance,
dents in Japan. and the country would pay a huge price.
In addition, Kamikubo said, the coun- “While the world is becoming more
try’s academic year has prevented many united, Japan will be left behind and will
Students keep their distance as Japanese students from studying abroad. lose in the global competition for out-
they attend a ceremony to mark In 2011 the University of Tokyo pushed standing human resources, unless it can
the start of the school year at an
elementary school in Saitama
for a September start to the academic year, change now,” he said.
Prefecture, north of Tokyo,
34 on April 8. Nikkei Inc. No reproduction without permission. 35
OPINION

Another pandemic
democratic institutions in Southeast Asia. This is Prayuth Chan-ocha, formerly head of a military
why it is crucial that any additional powers given government, has been granted sweeping powers
to regional leaders are subject to strict oversight that extend to shutting borders, banning social

danger: power grabs and constitutional limits.


The threat of authoritarian reversion is acute
among fledgling democracies, where
gatherings and, crucially, controlling information
on the pandemic.
The new legal powers could undermine efforts
Southeast Asian leaders are reshaping national institutional checks and balances are fragile, by the opposition to curb the power of the junta

Thailand Government House/Reuters


especially during national crises. In the under a new constitution, further strengthening
politics at the expense of hard-fought freedoms Philippines, which has one of the highest Prayuth’s hold on Thai society. Equipped with a
numbers of confirmed coronavirus cases in massive $58 billion stimulus program, the Thai
Southeast Asia, right-wing populist President prime minister could secure the support of tens
Rodrigo Duterte seamlessly secured sweeping of millions of citizens reeling from the economic
powers and a multibillion-dollar subsidy program slowdown and travel restrictions through cash
RICHARD HEYDARIAN from a largely pliant legislature. handouts and targeted subsidies.
During the six-week-long lockdown across the For his part, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun

W
Philippines’ capital region, Duterte was given Sen, who already rules with no opposition
ith the COVID-19 pandemic ravaging the authority to, among other things, direct the allowed, has won powers to monitor and control
Southeast Asian nations, the region’s operations of strategic private establishments both traditional and social media, tightening his
Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha
leaders have found a unique pretext to and crack down on any source of what the grip on the overall distribution of information in has been granted sweeping powers
consolidate power and muzzle critics. In a climate government deems “disinformation.” Journalists the name of national security. that extend to controlling information
of fear and uncertainty, authoritarian-leaning and an independent-minded city mayor who In Malaysia, critics fear that new Prime Minister on the pandemic.
figures from the Philippines and Thailand to questioned some aspects of the lockdown faced Muhyiddin Yassin, a member of the old guard
Richard Heydarian is an Cambodia and Malaysia have used the need for subpoenas from law enforcement agencies and known for his reactionary policies, could


Asia-based academic, unity to achieve unprecedented legal powers and shortly after Duterte won his new powers. leverage new powers to roll back the hard-earned Authoritarian-leaning leaders should not be
columnist and author silence the opposition. Authoritarian leaders in Thailand and democratic gains of the opposition in recent given a free pass in the name of addressing an
of “The Rise of Duterte:
A Populist Revolt Against
The public health crisis is not only precipitating Cambodia, meanwhile, have used emergency years. Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim has As successful urgent crisis. Instead, new emergency powers
Elite Democracy” and “The an economic depression, but could also lead to powers for full consolidation of power. Under called on the Malaysian parliament to vet new models such should be subjected to democratic checks and
the systematic erosion of basic freedoms and an emergency degree, Thai Prime Minister resources and powers given to the government balances. For instance, governments should
Indo-Pacific: Trump, China
and the New Struggle for to ensure democratic transparency.
as Taiwan and provide regular updates on how new resources
Global Mastery.” What we see across the region is a pattern of South Korea and powers are being used to combat the
growing restrictions on the flow of information; have shown, pandemic, allowing thorough scrutiny by the
a hardening crackdown on independent voices; other branches of the state, independent media
and increased marginalization of opposition and
participatory and civil society groups.
democratic forces. Meanwhile, authoritarian and democracy … Civil society groups and the opposition should
populist leaders now oversee large-scale stimulus is essential combine critical collaboration working cautiously
programs that can be leveraged for political with the government to check its excesses with
patronage and to strengthen their base as
to instituting proactive vigilance, especially when faced with
economic distress and political uncertainty grow. sustainable wily authoritarians.
Critics such as Brad Adams, Asia director and inclusive As successful models such as Taiwan and South
at Human Rights Watch, have argued that the Korea have shown, participatory democracy
vagueness of the new measures in a country like
measures -- private-public collaboration, transparent
Cambodia, where the ruling party controls all key to combat governance and robust levels of trust between
branches of the state, allows the prime minister the festering citizens and rulers -- is essential to instituting
to “assert absolute power over all aspects of civil, sustainable and inclusive measures to combat the
political, social and economic life -- all without
pandemic festering pandemic.
any time limits or checks on abuses of power.”
” Otherwise, even if regional states manage
to contain the outbreak in coming months,
emergency powers may have allowed a coterie of
Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen
authoritarian leaders to reshape national politics
has control over both traditional for the foreseeable future at the expense of hard-
and social media.
AP

fought freedoms.

36 Nikkei Inc. No reproduction without permission. 37


OPINION

Virus gives China a


Solomon Islands to give them advice about how on the 205-day Mission Harmony that included
to beat the virus. four Pacific nations.
It was a remarkable display of both China’s Now, Pacific nations are already trying to turn

Pacific island opening enormous capacity and confidence, and the


ability of its system to rapidly change course.
Only weeks earlier, China appeared to be on its
what are usually considered to be vulnerabilities,
their small size and remoteness, into strengths
to keep COVID-19 at bay. For weeks, they have
Beijing is using health care aid to improve knees as the virus spread throughout the country restricted entry and some have gone further,
from its epicenter in Wuhan. Now, Beijing was closing their borders altogether.
relations in the strategically significant region giving lessons to its neighbors. More than 200 cases have been identified in
As COVID-19 barrels toward the Pacific, such places as Guam, French Polynesia, Fiji and
China’s moves are a potent reminder of its soft Papua New Guinea, and many more are expected.
power and capabilities in a region that is fast Health systems in much of the region are
forming into a fault line for geopolitical tension in already dealing with severe and acute diseases,
the South Pacific. In the age of the coronavirus, such as dengue, malaria, tuberculosis and

Reuters
public health and politics are joined together as diabetes, and will not be able to cope. There are
never before. only a handful of ventilators and intensive-care-
JONATHAN PRYKE This is not China’s first foray into health care in unit beds in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea’s
RICHARD McGREGOR the Pacific islands. In July 2018, Chinese military capital, with a population of more than 350,000.


hospital ship the Peace Ark laid anchor in the Even if COVID-19 had not made it to the third-largest aid donor in the region, eclipsing

W
idyllic Port Vila harbor to launch a week of free Pacific, the economic cost for a region so Japan and the U.S. but still far behind Australia
hen it comes to helping the Pacific medical services for the citizens of Vanuatu, a dependent on the outside world through and New Zealand, and it is fast becoming the China’s moves
islands fight the spread of the new small island nation in the South Pacific. aid, tourism and migration would have been region’s most important trading partner. Taiwan are a potent
coronavirus, China has been quick The ship’s 300 beds and eight operating devastating. Budgets across the Pacific will be is also a player, in an effort to retain a diplomatic reminder of its
out of the blocks. In early March, when it was theaters dwarfed the capacity of the country’s wrecked and large swaths of the population will foothold in the Pacific that Beijing has managed
confident that it had tamed the spread of the largest hospital. By the end of its mission, the lose their jobs. to almost completely nullify. soft power and
Jonathan Pryke is a fellow
at the Lowy Institute in
virus, and new infections were beginning to fall, Peace Ark had provided consultations and Given their economic fragility, these The scale and intensity of Chinese engagement capabilities in
Sydney.
Beijing convened a videoconference with most treatments for 4,700 people, around 10% of the governments cannot draw on the same firepower have rattled Australia and its allies, who fear a region that
of the ministers from Papua New Guinea and the capital city’s population. This was only one stop as Australia, China, Japan and other regional China will try to use its newfound leverage, such
nations. The Pacific islands will need significant as diplomacy, debt, aid and trade, to gain what is fast forming
fiscal injections to keep their economies afloat, might the biggest prize, a military base in the into a fault line
and fast, which is where the geopolitical rivalry region. While a long shot, since the Pacific nations for geopolitical
comes in. are not interested and Australia seems resolute in
While much attention has been focused on preventing it, the strategic return on investment tension
Beijing’s high-profile efforts to send masks and
ventilators to countries like Spain and Italy, its
work in the Pacific is a reminder that the Chinese
that China could get in the region is appealing.
The benefit of a port for China may be
questionable. The logistics of maintaining

are active in every hemisphere. supply routes alone would be challenging but it
Scott Morrison, Australia’s prime minister, has would have a profound psychological impact on
Richard McGregor is a tried to put the Pacific nations on the global Australia. It would accelerate a military buildup
fellow at the Lowy Institute
coronavirus map, raising their plight on the first and confirm its worst fears about Chinese soft
in Sydney.
hookup of G-20 leaders in late March. aid -- that it is aimed at smoothing the path to
Australia has already provided medical a hard-power presence in the Pacific that would
materials and expertise and is reviewing its challenge the U.S. and its allies, like Australia,
aid program to take account of the changed head-on.
circumstances. But generally, Australia’s resources Many commentators have suggested that the
in the region are stretched. coronavirus will turn nations inward. Nationalism A Chinese construction
Over the past 15 years China has dramatically will trump globalization, so the argument goes. project in Port Moresby,
The Peace Ark, a Chinese scaled up its footprint in the Pacific. Chinese But the early skirmishes in the Pacific tell a Papua New Guinea, in
military hospital ship, 2018. Chinese state
launched free medical
cranes and state-owned engineering companies different story, of a renewed fight for influence, engineering companies
Reuters

services for the citizens of are at work in every major city. Chinese trade albeit on a battleground that is being cleared, and are at work in major cities
Vanuatu in July 2018. stores are in every major town. China is now the remade, by a once-in-a-century pandemic. across the Pacific.

38 Nikkei Inc. No reproduction without permission. 39


NIKKEI EDITORIAL

T Don’t make
he battle against the coronavirus First” ideology. The European Union is
has proved a challenge for strongly divided on the economy and

democracy
democratic nations as American other issues.
and European leaders have pushed for The trend extends beyond world
unprecedented measures to contain the leaders. The publics at the very heart of
outbreak while pushing up against the
limits of their authority.
a casualty democracies are growing self-interested
and exclusionary, triggering crime,
Meanwhile, Communist Party-ruled
China quickly put severe measures into of virus war bullying and false rumors in the midst of
the crisis.
place, sometimes at the expense of liberty Asians now face racism in the U.S. and
and private rights. This has led to claims Europe over misconceptions that they
that authoritarian governments are more spread the virus, while Hindu nationalists
successful at dealing with the pandemic. in India blame Muslims. The world is sorely
But that is not true. Nondemocratic
Checks and balances missing a sense of unity, despite facing an
countries have suffered higher mortality more essential than ever enemy that threatens all of humanity.
rates than democracies in recorded in age of nationalism Even before the coronavirus, there
epidemics since 1960, an analysis by The was concern in the world about
Economist magazine found, with curbs
and populism “Westlessness” -- the decline of
on public information a possible factor. American and European societies
Even today, authoritarian regimes in that until now had been beacons of
Russia and Iran are struggling to contain democratic ideals. Further deterioration
the virus. While the initial responses in the rule of law, human rights
by the U.S. and Europe were far from Globalization and international protections and multilateralism is not
perfect, we should not disregard the cooperation, advocated by democratic ideal. We need to not only defeat
strengths of a free and open democracy. states, are under threat as well. COVID-19, but also protect the
The problem is that these strengths are U.S. President Donald Trump has principles and foundations of democracy.
no longer as pronounced. Nationalism suspended some immigration and Balancing authority and human
and populism have accelerated around threatened funding to the World Health rights in a pandemic is no easy task.
the world over the virus, pushing many Organization under his “America Governments seeking expanded powers
leaders into a more authoritarian and therefore must provide clear constraints
exclusionary brand of politics. and time limits as well as strong legal
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor and scientific justifications.
Orban, who openly advocates illiberal The public also must be more vigilant
democracy, has been granted sweeping about abuses. Otherwise, the world will be
powers under an indefinite state of left dealing with negative consequences
emergency declared in response to the even after the outbreak ends.
coronavirus. Philippine President Rodrigo The use of the latest technology to
Duterte reportedly gave the military track the public is now spreading into
and the police the green light to shoot democracies as well. Some people
civilians who violate lockdown orders. want automatic tracking of those
As of early May 5, there were 84 under quarantine, for example. So it is
countries with emergency declarations important to create laws and regulations
over the virus, according to the to keep the internet -- long symbolic of a
Reuters

International Center for Not-for-Profit free and open society -- from becoming
Law. Thirty had measures that impact an amplifier for autocrats.
expression, and 111 that affect assembly. When too much of the public has
While limiting some actions and rights lost tolerance and self-restraint, it is
may be necessary in an emergency, we Philippine President Rodrigo impossible to rebuild a healthy society
Duterte reportedly gave
must not accept restrictions that go too the military and the police
and international order. It is important for
far or accept the current state of affairs the green light to shoot civilians each and every individual to acknowledge
as a new normal. who violate lockdown orders. the responsibility they have.

40 Nikkei Inc. No reproduction without permission.


LIFE & ARTS
Courtesy of Hsu Shih-kai

Reuters
Hong Kong bookseller Lam Wing-kee’s life took a
dramatic turn in 2015, when he was abducted by
Chinese agents. “I didn’t expect myself to be China’s
next target,” says Lam, pictured here in Taipei in 2019.

Lam at a protest march in


Hong Kong in June 2016.

that would allow people to be extradited to the mainland in outcome that worries Lam and has been criticized by many in
February 2019, sparking last year’s six-month-long protests, he Taiwan as encouraging such acts of violence.
decided to flee to Taiwan. “It’s ridiculous that a tiny bookstore could be a target of
He does not plan to muddle along or retire but is devoting all threat,” says Lam. “The intimidation comes in the form of red
his energy to resuscitating Causeway Bay Books in Taipei. “The paint today, but what if it turns into knives, guns and blood
bookstore is symbolic in defying Chinese authoritarian rule while tomorrow?” He says he suspects Chinese Communists are
underpinning democracy in Taiwan,” Lam says. He hopes to turn behind these two incidents.

Abducted by China, a Hong Kong


it into a supportive hub for the increasing number of Hong Kong If all goes well, the 700-sq.-foot shop will stock over 10,000
immigrants, including hundreds of young protesters, fleeing to books, including many intensively researched, thought-
Taiwan in fear of being prosecuted. provoking academic titles on greater China, Xinjiang, Tibet

bookseller starts again in Taiwan Planned since 2017, Lam’s new store has been marred by
interference. A Hong Kong financial sponsor pulled out of
the project as he and his wife, who had businesses in China,
and elsewhere in Asia. Others range from weighty tomes on
Marxism and schools of Western thought to highbrow world
politics, culture, economics and European arts and literature.
Lam Wing-kee, who jumped bail in 2016, defies Beijing’s curbs were both investigated. Meanwhile, a Taiwanese man secretly There is little place for the stories on scandals or the colorful
sold the sponsor list to a China-backed newspaper in Hong private lives of Chinese officials ubiquitous at Hong Kong’s
on free speech by resuscitating Causeway Bay Books Kong. Assuming Lam was ignorant of his plot, the man later newsstands and popular in his old bookstore.
approached him several times to offer funding to co-launch the “Understanding China’s 5,000 years of autocratic
CYBIL CHOU Contributing writer
bookstore, which Lam rejected as “poison laced with sugar.” traditions and comparing them with the Western democratic
The bookstore finally gained momentum after a crowdfunding developments will prepare ourselves to deal with China,” Lam
campaign in Taipei that raised nearly $200,000 in late 2019. says in strong Cantonese-accented Mandarin. “It’s pivotal given
TAIPEI In 2015, Lam Wing-kee was managing Causeway Bay bespectacled Lam jumped bail in June 2016 while on a visit But days before the store’s opening on April 25, Lam received its ingrained political and cultural heritages will still impact Hong
Books, a bookstore he had founded in Hong Kong that sold, to Hong Kong to retrieve a computer database. Now, aged a letter from a lawyer representing a newly registered bookstore Kong, Taiwan, Xinjiang and Tibet for many years to come.”
alongside serious works, some gossipy titles prohibited by the 64, when he could be retiring, he has started all over again in that accused him of registering a similar name to compete unfairly The bookstore also plans to attract children, hoping to
Chinese authorities. Between October and December of that Taiwan -- new life, new bookshop. in the book business, while also infringing on its trademark. He inspire their love of books from a young age.
year, he and four associates were abducted by China’s Central Life in Hong Kong after jumping bail was very difficult for was also attacked by masked men throwing red paint. They were “We used to tell a bedtime story every day for our boy since
Case Examination Group, set up to prosecute those felt to be Lam. “Whenever I went out alone, I shielded my face with later arrested but soon released on bail with petty fines -- an he was very little. It turned out that 10 minutes a day can go
against the mainland’s ruling Communist Party. masks and was always alert for potential stalkers coming from
They were put into custody for months. Lam and his associates any direction,” he says. “Sometimes I had to cut short my
believed their abduction was linked to the intended publication strolls, knowing someone nearby was following me.”
of a book that disclosed the secretive personal relationships of Despite this, he joined public protests at home and also
Chinese leader Xi Jinping and other sensitive material. testified at a U.S. congressional hearing in 2017, pleading for
The abductions were part of Chinese efforts under Xi to rein China to release fellow abductee Gui Min-hai, publisher Yiu
in press freedom in Hong Kong. In 2013, 73-year-old publisher Man-tin and Taiwanese activist Lee Ming-che.
Yiu Man-tin, who was working on a book about Xi, was But constant fear of being sent back to China overwhelmed
detained and sentenced to 10 years for “smuggling ordinary him and when the Hong Kong government proposed a bill
goods.” In 2014, two editors at magazines that featured
loosely sourced articles about Chinese political leaders were
also imprisoned, before being convicted of “operating an Right: Members of pro-democracy group Demosisto,
illegal business” and sentenced in 2016. from left, Agnes Chow Ting, Joshua Wong
and Oscar Lai march in Hong Kong on June 17,
“I didn’t expect myself to be China’s next target,” Lam 2016 to protest Lam’s abduction.
Wing-kee tells the Nikkei Asian Review. Far right: Lam’s supporters gather outside
Causeway Bay Books the following day.

AP
After eight months of detention in China, the slender and

42 Nikkei Inc. No reproduction without permission. 43


LIFE & ARTS TEA LEAVES

W Street food
hen I step out of my building Toei market, and on her original recipe
in the middle of Bangkok for Thailand’s national dish.

Courtesy of Hsu Shih-kai


these days, there are few cars
in the usually congested thoroughfare. spirit in “We make all our products from
scratch,” Mae Am says with a hint

Bangkok’s
Passersby wear face masks and stay of pride. Old-school garnishes like
a respectful distance from each other banana blossom and small bouquets

lockdown
-- a feat that would be impossible in of pennywort leaves are served with
AP

the usual throng of students and office every order.


workers in this neighborhood. Speaking through her daughter-in-
But the biggest change is what I don’t law Clare, whose husband Bas works
Lam hangs a work of calligraphy that reads “Freedom” Despite feeling nostalgic for cha chaan teng (tea see. Gone is the fried-chicken lady who in the shop with his mother, Mae Am
at his bookstore’s opening in Taipei on April 25. It is a restaurants) and luncheon meat with egg noodles back would slip some crispy chicken skin and says the COVID-19 crisis has changed
gift from Tiananmen Square protest leader Wang Dan. in Hong Kong, Lam’s chance of a homecoming is slim. an extra pouch of nam jin (chili sauce) in many things -- including the way food is
my order. Gone too is the “uncle” who served to customers. “We have to sell
a long way,” says Lam, a father of two, describing how some In a cafe in Taipei, Lam sports a relaxed posture and easy always greeted me with a toothy grin and through take-away and deliveries now,
excellent titles on hard topics he sourced went missing as his grin barely seen in his earlier TV appearances. But he becomes warm cheer whether or not I was buying and have started using Grab, Line Man
VINCENT VICHIT-VADAKAN
son grew older. He knew that his son “stole” them but felt guarded and serious when approached by a stranger. his skewers of juicy grilled pork. and Wongnai,” she notes, referencing
pleased about the astute taste for books his son cultivated. Trauma left by his experience in China has come back to These street-food vendors and many popular delivery apps.
But in Taiwan, he finds it alarming that the younger haunt him. “I had this recurring nightmare three times -- that others have disappeared from the While the apps take a hefty cut, she
generation is either ignorant of or indifferent toward China group of men that abducted me in China rushed toward me, sidewalks of Bangkok since the onset sees their service as a convenience for
and how its systems function, despite their country being handcuffed me and dragged me into a seven-seater. ... It is of the novel coronavirus. Customers her customers during these difficult

Hiroko Oshima
under perpetual Chinese threat. Certain Taiwanese bookstores horrifying,” he says. have vanished, curfews have cut into times. But she misses the usual flow of
operating across the Strait self-censor, removing titles that may Despite feeling nostalgic for cha chaan teng (tea restaurants) their business hours and nobody knows people. “We like to serve our pad thai
spark China’s ire. and luncheon meat with egg noodles back in Hong Kong, his what tomorrow will bring. Many of the fresh and hot from the wok,” she says.
As many independent bookstores in Taiwan have closed due chance of a homecoming is slim. stallholders have returned to their “We like to see people enjoy our food.”
to the rise of online competitors, e-books and promotional “Lam can return to Hong Kong should he wish to, but the homes in the provinces for the duration Her day starts at 6 a.m. and ends well
campaigns by large chains, Lam, a veteran in the book city is no longer a safe place for him,” says Sang Pu, a solicitor of the national lockdown. A few are after the stall’s 8 p.m. closing time. The
business of over 30 years, remains upbeat about his project. and political commentator in Hong Kong. Despite withdrawing sticking it out, though, and stand as popular word that the Thai language has staff serve all day, and when there is a
“All too often, bookstores are deemed merely as venues the controversial extradition bill, says Sang, the Hong Kong inspiration for others. borrowed from English. lull, the shopkeeper makes traditional
where commodities are traded,” he says. “If booksellers government has invoked and will invoke regulations to further “I don’t know what to do,” says Despite the hard times, Pim has not desserts like bua loy (rice-flour balls in
struggle for survival, it’s because they fail to identify the unique clamp down on dissidents like Lam. Bangkok native Pim Chana, the most compromised on quality. She simmers coconut milk) and -- my personal favorite
values bookstores can offer.” He is confident he can gauge While Lam has severed contact with his former bookstore popular rad na (noodles and gravy) her meat-packed gravy with the same -- the silkiest durian sticky rice in town,
readers’ appetites, claiming that over 90% of the books he associates for safety’s sake, he knows Lee Bo, the bookstore’s vendor in the Ruam Sab Market in care as always, and ensures that all the served faintly warm. “I enjoy my working
sourced from Guangdong sold during bumper years. shareholder who was abducted from a Hong Kong warehouse, the central district of Asok. Pim’s stall ingredients are fresh. Many options are day,” she says. “I don’t feel tired and my
can now travel freely to China, although his phones are proclaims that she has been featured available, but the regulars’ favorite is the heart is happy when I work.”
The Taipei coffee shop where Lam was attacked tapped. Two other associates are known to be barred from on television, but there is no air of flat crispy egg noodles, softening in a She says sales have been steady and
with red paint on April 21. returning to Hong Kong. glamour as she steps out to reflect glistening sauce. she has gained new customers through
He was saddened by a Chinese court’s recent 10-year on the emergency. Pim says she tried selling through the delivery apps. Bangkok’s street
sentence for Gui Min-hai for “illegally providing intelligence “I have to keep selling because I have the delivery platform GrabFood, but vendors have long been under pressure
overseas” and by the arrest of Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy responsibilities,” she says as she takes off complains that the company’s minimum from gentrification and regulation, and it
Lai in February over his role in a pro-democracy protest last year. her face mask -- keeping a table’s width 30% commission was unaffordable. So is unclear how many will reopen when the
“It’s absurd,” says Lam. Between Gui’s two-year detention away from me. “I’m on my own and don’t she is relying on walk-in customers and capital returns to normal. But she sees a
and apprehension shortly after his release, “what intelligence have any family to support me.” direct orders. “At least I can still make silver lining to the crisis.
could he obtain and share with foreign countries?” Looking around the nearly empty a little bit of an income,” she sighs. “It’s “Local people are working together
While Lam is not upbeat about the city’s outlook given its market, Pim says she is determined to better than not making anything at all.” and helping each other,” she says.
small area, proximity to China and lack of military capability, he keep cooking, even though sales have Some vendors are more upbeat. Characteristically, so is Mother Am, who
urges Hong Kong not to give up hope. plunged. “Normally, I have 250 to 300 Amara Seetongdee, better known as is quietly donating meals to medical
“Our fight for freedom and democracy must go on even customers a day,” she says. “Now it’s “Mae Am” (Mother Am), opened her workers and others in need.
from outside of the city,” he says. “But don’t expect a less than a third of that.” Some loyal eponymous pad thai shop “30-plus years
revolution to bear fruit in merely one or two years. Be ready to customers are still buying. “But it isn’t ago.” She prides herself on sourcing Vincent Vichit-Vadakan is a Bangkok-based
AP

fight for 20 or 30 years.” as happee as before” she adds, using a fresh ingredients from the nearby Khlong writer.

44 Nikkei Inc. No reproduction without permission. 45

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