Innovazione e Sviluppo Prodotto

Technology intelligence

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Competitive Market Technology

Intelligence Intelligence Intelligence

Decision making

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 What is technology intelligence?

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Some definitions...

«Collection and delivery of information about new technologies to support

decision making process within an organization. An effective TI system will
warn your company about technology threats and identify opportunities,
in time for your (company) to act on the information.»
Cambridge book of technology intelligence

«The capture and delivery of technological information as part of

the process whereby an organisation develops an awareness of
technological threats and opportunities. » (Kerr et al., 2006).

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Why technology intelligence? And why business
should do TI?

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Several reasons...

• Changes in technology can have a significant impact on business

• Industry that did not anticipate the impact of ... Struggled to maintain the
position in the market

• Identify technologies that have the potential to revolutionise an industry,

early enough to allow your company to take on board a new opportunity or
to react to a threat

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 How do firms do TI?

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Technology intelligence process

The technology intelligence process should comprise the following

steps:

Determination of Information Information filter Information

the information search and analysis communication
needs

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Determination of information needs

• All technology strategy decisions should be supported by the TI process

• Which kind of decision should be supported?

– Identification of opportunities
– Threat avoidance
– Avoiding to invest in a technology too early or too much /too late or too
poorly
– Prioritizing R&D projects / supporting R&D project selection

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Why clarify the information need

li le in e nal acce ance

me an ed inf ma i n i n ecei ed and me inf ma i n

ecei ed i n an ed

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What matters?

• What kind of information

• Company context, industry and product specificities
• Future and strategy
• Who the decision makers are and what information they want
• How to receive the information

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 Information search

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Search modes

Scan
Trawl
Unknown Learning about any
Finding information technological
target which is inside, but development which
not formalised could have an impact
on the future

Knowledge
about the
target of the TI
process
Target
Mine
monitoring the
Extracting development of new
Known intelligence from an technologies
target internal repository identified as relevant
for the future

Internal External

Localization of information

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Information search: sources

• Formal sources: journals, books, reports, studies, databases

• Informal sources: conferences, meetings, collaborations and
alliances; expert circles

• Primary vs Secondary

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Source advantages and

disadvantages
• Formal sources:
– Advantages: Easy access, low priced, analyzed, structured, impersonal
– Disadvantages: Late, widespread (non exclusive), analyzed, information
overload

• Informal sources:
– Advantages: Early (maybe), exclusive, non analyzed
– Disadvantages: Expensive, non analyzed, doubtful, fuzzy, incomplete,
personal, previous knowledge require

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Information Search: sources

• Internal sources: employees from R&D,

marketing, manufacturing, TI specialists

• External sources: external TI specialists,

info broker

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And other sources

• Publications
• Patents
• VC funds
• Start-up fairs
• Contacts to universities
• Consultants, extl. experts
• Scientific conferences
• Product fairs
• Commercial conferences
• Cooperations
• Suppliers
• Lead users
• Information brokers
• Stock market information
• Governmental programs
• Standards committee
• National research committee
• Financing PhD studies
• Sabbaticals
• Employ Post Docs
• Personal networks
• Journals, newspapers
• Databases
• WWW

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Factors influencing the choices

• Degree of formality (formal vs. informal, primary vs. secondary)

• Type of Sender (competitor, university, supplier, customer, ...) and its

openness

• Stage of innovation (research vs. development, early vs. mature

technologies)

• Industry specific technology development

• Directedness of information search (scanning vs. monitoring)

• Strategic importance of information need

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Information filter and

analysis

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Information filter and analysis

• Information collected should be:

– Filtered
– Integrated
– Assessed

• In coherence with the information needs

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Information filter and analysis

Methods for elaborating information can be distinguished according to:

• The (prevailing) nature of data

– Quantitative methods
– Qualitative methods

• The (prevailing) use

– Explorative
– Normative

• The time horizon

• The (prevailing) focus:

– Internal
– External

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 Communication

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Communication

• Face-to-face dialog, meeting

• Video communication
• Phone / conference call
• Documents

• Mix of oral and document communication

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Some tips

• “To ensure accuracy and completeness, always use more than one source of
information. (Coburn, 1999)

• Large numbers of information sources do exist. The challenge is to choose

the appropriate source for an information acquisition task.

• The relevance of information sources for a certain information acquisition

task differs depending on the degree of formality, the type of sender… and
the strategic importance of information need

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Information filter and

analysis

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Technology Intelligence Methods

• S-curve
• Patent analysis
• Publication analysis
• Scenario analysis
• Roadmapping
• Relevance trees
• Delphi method
• Brainstorming
• Benchmarking
• Skill – application matrix
• Quality function deployment
• Lead users analysis
• Technical innovation audit
• ……

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Technology intelligence – Methods

• The choice of the intelligence method should take into consideration:

– Strategic relevance of the TI process
– Information needs and the type of use expected for results
– Time, resources, competences available
– Familiarity with the methods
– Time horizon
– Uncertainty

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S-curve

Physical limit of performance III phase

Performance

IV phase
II phase

I phase

Time (or R&D effort)

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S-curve

– L= superior limit of performance y

– b defines the slope
L – a defines the inflection point
y
1 + ae bt – Parameters a and b are valuated on the basis of
historical data

• Assumptions:
– L is known
– The form of the function is correct
– Historical data allow to valuate a and b with statistical
significance

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Examples

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Substitution curves

Technology

Technology B
Performance

Technological
discontinuity

Past Future

Time (or R&D effort)

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S-curves, technological substitution
and positioning

• Continuous investments in a mature technology allow for an incremental,

limited improvement in performance with increasing marginal costs

• If a new technology, at a definite point in time, is characterised by higher

performance with respect to the old one, firms are triggered to «jump» to
the new one before the old has achieved its higher level of performance

• Companies that do not identify their position and /or do not recognize the
level of maturity of a technology may fall into increasing investments with
decreasing returns in terms of performance

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S-curves: limits

• Time is a significant variable only if associated with continuous R&D effort

• It is difficult to estimate L, a and b

• Unexpected changes in the customer or competitors behaviuor may lead to

a different evolutionary path with respect to what estimated

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Patent analysis
• Patents represent a highly relevant information source, even if:
– Not all innovations are patented
– What is patented is not always an innovation

inventions

patents innovations

Patented
innovations

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Patent analysis

• Patent analysis can be used to:

– Understand the positioning of a technology in its lifecycle
– Identify and monitor major technological competitors
– Valuate technological positioning with respect to competitors
– Compare the patent strategy against competitors
– Communicate the innovation activity

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Example of patent indicators

• Top assignees identification

• Top assignees in main IPC classes;
• Top publication countries (and related evolution over time);
• Technology new comers identification;
• Main applications of a technology (patent classification classes frequency and relations);
• Technology new comers identification;
• Technology maturity definition;
• Average age of patents;
• Patent publication countries;
• Most cited patents;
• Patents classification analysis (e.g. IPC classes of patents);
• Bottom 10 IPC analysis (for technology niches identification);
• Top Priority Countries (and related evolution over time);
• Find-similar analysis per codes/keywords;
• Semantic analysis of patents;
• No. of alive and dead patents;
• Legal state/status analysis;
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Publication analysis

• Use of databases of scientific and technical publications to verify:

– The frequency of occurrence of papers on a specific technology
– The citations of such papers
• Indication of quality
• Indication of correlations among different science
technology areas

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Scenario analysis

• Scenario analysis describes «realistic» future states and the

different possible patterns towards those future states

• It is based upon:
– Identification of variables that influence the future state of a
system
– Identification of the trend of the above variables
– Elaboration of possible future scenarios, corresponding to
different patterns of the above variables

• May exploit system dynamics theory

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Scenario analysis

• Advantages:
– Allows to explicitly consider uncertainty
– Greatly supports strategic decision making
– May be used with technological roadmaps

• Limits:
– Expensive (time and resources)
– Difficult to consider possible tehcnological discontinuities and
breakthrough (i.e. the emerging of new relevant influence
variables)

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 Technology roadmapping

• Technology roadmaps:
– Tools for strategic forecasting and planning
– Integrate different organizational perspectives in the
intelligence process: R&D, di marketing, manufacturing,
finance
– May evolve following actual events

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Technology roadmapping

Resources rf1 rf2 rf5

Financial
I1 I2
Infrastructures
human HR1 HR2 HR4
Core Competences CC1
CC2

CC3
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Adattata da: Lichtenthaler, 2002
Technology roadmapping

• Advantages:
– Visual, clear and rapid representation
– Integrates different data and information from different
c m an f nc i nal ni
– Integrates technological, scientific, organizational, marketing,
manufacturing elements

• Limits:
– Hard to consider technology breakthrough
– Soft, non-technical information are often missed

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Relevance trees

• Aimed at understanding the alternative paths for achieving a specific

objective

• Starting form the desired objective, it is de-composed in different

levels(for example, clean car):
– (i) alternative solutions (electric cars, hybrid cars etc...)
– (ii) functions (lithium cells, photovoltaic cells, etc )
– (iii) technological solutions for performing desired functions
– (iv) .

• Each level should be analysed in terms of feasibility, necessary resources,

success probability, timing

• Relevance trees allow to:

– (i) evaluate the feasibility of a path
– (ii) identify the optimal path
– (iii) select and plan projects
– (iv) define performance goals for each R&D project
– (v) identify the need for specific forecasting activities, relevant for
defining possible paths

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Brainstorming

• Expert judgment, critical when:

– There are no historical data
– New variables are emerging that influence the evolution of
technology
– Cause-effect relations cannot be understood
– The focus is on the identification of Technological
discontinuities

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Brainstorming

• Team definition: need to introduce external competencies as well

(even external people)
• Identification of the team coordinator, who stimulates the creative
process and avoid not useful parenthesis
• Definition of the focus of the discussion
• Exploration of all possible ideas and opinions with the same
commitment
• Exploration of ideas, not solutions
• Inhibition removal

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Delphi study

• It is a sort of «structured» brainstorming, allowing to:

– Reduce or remove psychological influences
– Consider ideas coming from minority groups
– Cleanse the expert judgement from subjective, personal,
biased factors

• Characteristics:
– Anonymous: avoids the influence of leaders (either hierarchical
of charismatic)
– Iteration with controlled feedback: judgements and forecasts
are elaborated and filtered from the coordinator
– Synthetic synthesis of answers: make expert judgement less
subjective

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Delphi method
• The technological focus of the process is identified and the
coordinator (or moderator) elaborates the questionnaire
• A panel of experts is defined, each expert does not know others
• The questionnaire is sent to the experts

The sequence is launched

1. Experts answer to the questionnaire; the coordinator pool

answers and defines the list of events / relevant items
2. Experts valuate the timing of relevant events / items and the
coordinator statistically elaborates the answers (distributions,
means, variances, medians )
3. Statistic results are communicate to the experts, asking to
motivate their positioning with respect to the mean and median
values; experts may then change their answer
4. Iteration of point 3;
.
• Iterations end when there is a statistically robust convergence of
answers and when subsequent iterations do not introduce significant
statistic modifications

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Delphi method

• Advantages
– Precision
– Reliability (higher with a high number of expert)

• Disadvantages
– The identification of experts is critical
– The identification of a neutral, unbiased coordinaotr is critical
– May foster orthodoxy
– Expert commitment in answering to the questionnaire cannot
be verified

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Benchmarking:

• C m a i n again echn l g be in cla

• Phases:
– Planning:
• Defining the process / performance investigated
• Iden if ing be in cla
• Defining the data collection process

– Analysing:
• Measuring current performance
• cleaning da a

– Draw conclusions:
• P i i ning again be in cla

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Competence – application matrix
an example
COMPETENCIES APPLICATIONS
A1 A2 A3 A4

C1 X X X

C2 X

C3 X

C4 X

C5 X X

C6 X X

C7

C8 X

C9 X

C10 X

C11 X

C12

C13 X

C14 X

C15 X

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Competence – application matrix

an example
COMPETENCIES APPLICATIONS
A1 A2 A3 A4

C1 X X X

C2 X

C3 X

C4 X

C5 X X

C6 X X

C7

C8 X

C9 X

C10 X

C11 X

C12

C13 X

C14 X

C15 X

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 Competence – application matrix
an example
COMPETENCIES APPLICATIONS
A1 A2 A3 A4

C1 X X X

C2 X

C3 X

C4 X

C5 X X

C6 X X

C7

C8 X

C9 X

C10 X

C11 X

C12

C13 X

C14 X

C15 X

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Technology – application matrix

applications
existing new

A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6
existing
T1
Tecnology

T2
- skill

T3
new
T4

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Technology intelligence – Methods

• The choice of the intelligence method should take into consideration:

– Information needs and the type of use expected for results
– Time, resources, competences available
– Familiarity with the methods
– Time horizon
– Uncertainty
– Strategic relevance of the TI process

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Case Study

DSPs and all semiconductor devices are the foundation of microelectronic technologies and the support of
the entire technological system of information and communication technologies (ICTs). This system
includes all techniques that are related to the generating, transmission, reception, storage and processing of
information, as much for human communication as for that among machines. The spectrum of technologies
that embraces this definition is extensive as it includes very concrete applications (automatic, robotic,
artificial intelligence) that can be used in different environments as well as support technologies
(microelectronic, optoelectronic). Therefore, ICTs can be characterized as a technological system whose
modules constitute a chain in which each link uses, out of necessity, the previous one until the final
applications are realized. This concept is visualized in Figure 2, in which the different elements that form
the technological system of ICTs are defined: support technologies, information and communication
technologies in the strictest sense, derived technologies, and complementary technologies. DSPs are the
base of this technological chain and fulfill the task of supporting the functional development of ICTs. The
technologies that are incorporated into the DSPs have no utility themselves if they are not applied in their
natural area of incidence. Therefore, DSPs, being typical support technologies, facilitate the realization of
the majority of functions that are required in the equipment and the systems that are used by ICTs. The
large growth of these devices that the market is experiencing and the optimistic expectations regarding their
development in the future can be explained by their multiple applications in the scope of ICTs. In addition,
DSPs using digital techniques have made processing possible in real time of signals of elevated width band
and have provoked a clear breaking-off with the analogic technologies used to date. It has been confirmed
that the revolution that these devices have provoked can be compared to the one that the first
microcomputers caused in the 1970s. Digital computing tasks can be divided into two classes. Data
processing operates on numbers that represent textual and numerical information. Signal processing
operates on numbers that represent real-world signals such as speech and vision. Data processing
applications have dominated the computer market and the semiconductor components market over the past
decades. DSPs components will become a major growth area in the semiconductor components market over
the next few years for two reasons (Price Waterhouse, 1994): I Applications pull such as digital audio for
entertainment (Compact Disc, Digital Audio Tape), digital telecommunications (ISDN), digital TV, video-
conferencing, speech input and output to computers, and computer vision. I Technology push such as
increased processing speeds, greater storage capacities and new algorithms.

DSPs are microprocessors which belong to the extensive family of digital devices. The basic function that
DSPs perform is to digitally process the signal. As an alternative, the signal can also be processed
analogically using other semiconductor components (see Figure 1). Up until the end of the 1970s, signal
processing was achieved, in large part, by using analogic technologies. The appearance of the first DSPs in
approximately 1979 provoked a discontinuity in the technology of signal processing, shifting all analogic
systems towards digital systems. The main problems that arise with signal processing systems based on
analogic electronics are their low versatility and limited capacity for processing complex algorithms.
Versatility depends on the programming possibilities of the device. In spite of the fact that analogic
processing systems can incorporate the characteristic of programmability, they are not comparable to what
a DSP, designed specifically for signal processing, can offer. In fact, a DSP enables the programming of
any algorithm that will determine the desired signal treatment. The DSPs are essentially high-speed
microprocessors designed to develop signal processing algorithms with elevated calculations. In a DSP, the
limitation at the time of executing an algorithm for signal processing is its velocity. Digital procedures are
found to be disadvantageous in applications where great speed is required. Therefore, it is essential to realize
them by using analogic techniques. It is important to point out that, due to technological improvements and
the optimization of informal structures, the speed of DSPs has been increasing dramatically in recent years.
Nonetheless, analogic signal processing is not likely to disappear. Currently a gradual transition in signal
processing technologies is taking place. It is necessary to consider that the first DSPs were quite slow and
although they solved the problem of complicated assembly, when the demand for greater velocity increased,
it was necessary to turn to analogic technology.

Figure 1 Semiconductor devices and components

Figure 2 ICT system

The performance of DSPs are represented at Table 1. As with all complex mechanisms, DSPs have
numerous characteristics that can be used as technology performance indicators: longitude of data with
which it can work, internal memory, capacity to direct memory, etc. In Table 1 we can see the main technical
characteristics of a sample of 29 DSPs that were introduced into the marketplace between 1976 and 1995.
In the last column the parameter efficiency values are indicated. This parameter has been defined on the
basis of two characteristics of the technology of DSPs which are easily quantifiable by R&D engineers:
cycle time and data time. The efficiency parameter can be obtained by dividing the data type with which
the DSP can work and its cycle time. The results are standardized with respect to the information received
for ADSP21060. The parameter cycle time represents the speed of a device. Nevertheless, a device with
less speed than another could be capable of realizing operating calculations with a higher performance.
Therefore, in order to verify how the device operates the performance is important to consider another
factor, equally as important as the speed of processing: the format that is used to represent the data (data
type). If this parameter is considered, processors can be broken down into two families: those that operate
in fixed point and those that do so in floating point. With the first format an inferior value ranking of data
type is obtained. On the other hand, the floating point is a more dynamic margin and a greater volume of
data can be treated.

Table 1 Main characteristics of a sample of 29 DSPs

Family Manufacturer Data type Cycle time (ns) Efficiency

Fixed AMI 12 300 1.00E-36
Fixed NEC 16 250 1.93E-35
Fixed Texas Instruments 16 390 1.24E-35
Fixed Hitachi 12 250 1.20E-36
Fixed Fujitsu 16 100 4.82E-35
Fixed Toshiba 16 250 1.93E-35
Fixed Texas Instruments 16 195 2.48E-35
Floating ATT 24E8 160 0.1562
Fixed NEC 24 100 1.24E-32
Fixed Analog Devices 16 125 3.86E-35
Fixed National 16 100 4.82E-35
Floating NEC 24E8 150 0.166
Fixed Texas Instruments 16 100 4.82E-35
Fixed Motorola 24 74 1.67E-32
Floating Fujitsu 24E8 150 0.166
Fixed ATT 16 55 8.76E-35
Fixed Analog Devices 16 80 6.02E-35
Floating ATT 24E8 80 0.312
Floating Texas Instruments 24E8 50 0.5
Fixed Texas Instruments 16 50 9.64E-35
Floating Analog Devices 24E8 50 0.5
Floating Analog Devices 24E8 30 0.833
Floating ATT 24E8 50 0.5
Fixed Texas Instruments 16 40 1.20E-34
Floating Texas Instruments 24E8 40 0.625
Fixed ATT 16 25 1.93E-34
Floating Texas Instruments 24E8 33 0.758
Floating Analog Devices 24E8 25 1
Fixed Texas Instruments 16 25 1.93E-34
S-Curve

The S curve allows for the evolution model of the performance of any technology. The S curve can be very
useful in orienting the technological strategies of firms. In fact, this model supplies information:

(1) about the magnitude of effort necessary to obtain a determined increase in the productivity of a
technology;

(2) about the existence of natural limits in its performance.

The structure of the operative methodology developed to analyze the technology performance of DSPs will
be discussed. This methodology can be outlined in three phases: (1) selection of the technology to be
analyzed; (2) definition of the technology performance indicator; and (3) construction of the S curve.

First phase: selection of the technology to be analyzed

In the first place, it is necessary to identify the technology in a precise way in order to differentiate it from
others that have similar characteristics or that perform the same functions. Identifying a technology consists
of differentiating it from others that have similar characteristics or that perform the same functions.
Secondly, it is necessary to evaluate the role of the technology in relation to the technological system in
which it is immersed. No technology can be analyzed in an isolated way without taking into account the
interactions of other technologies within its technological system (Metcalfe, 1981; Freeman et al., 1982).
Finally, it is necessary to evaluate the impact of the technology on the present and future activities
(products/processes) of the firm. These aspects are closely related and therefore should be analyzed
together.

Second phase: definition of an indicator of the technology performance

It is necessary to define a parameter that allows for the true evaluation of the technology performance. This
second phase has transcendental importance, as one incorrect definition of the performance parameter could
invalidate the analysis results. It should reflect the expressed performance in physical/technical units. It is
highly recommended that it be defined by engineers from the firm using variables that are easily quantifiable
by the personnel of R&D. At the same time, it should reflect perfectly identifiable attributes or qualities
which synthesize the most significant properties and characteristics of the technology in accordance with
their impact on the marketplace. In this way, any increment in the physical/technical performance of a
technology will also reflect an improvement in the contributions of the products that incorporate it.
3.3 Third phase: construction of the S curve
Once a technology performance indicator is defined, it is necessary to construct the S curve. Constructing
the S curve consists of representing the technology performance evolution based on an explicatory variable.
To do this, Foster (1986a) recommends relating the performance improvements with the effort expended in
the development of the technology. Without any doubt, the technology effort variable has great explicatory
capacity. The technological effort that contributes to the accumulation of knowledge about a technology,
as with other intangible claims of a firm, constitutes, at the same time, an input and an output (Imai, 1987).
In addition, technological understanding is quite tacit and therefore difficult to quantify.