No Atron readings Forecast Error Abs Err Sqr Err APE

1 60.00 F(t+1) = Y(t)

2 81.00 NF1
3 72.00 MA(3)
4 78.00 F(t+1) = Average(Y(t),Y(t-1),Y(t-2))
5 61.50 MA(1)=??
6 78.00 MA(12)
7 57.00
8 84.00
9 72.00
10 67.50
11 99.00
12 25.50
13 93.00 69.63
14 75.00 72.38
15 57.00 71.88
16 88.50 70.63
17 76.50 71.50
18 82.50 72.75
19 72.00 73.13
20 76.50 74.38
21 75.00 73.75 1.25 1.25 1.56 2%
22 78.00 74.00 4.00 4 16.00 5%
23 66.00 74.88 -8.88 8.875 78.77 13%
24 97.50 72.13 25.38 25.375 643.89 26%
25 60.00 78.13 -18.13 18.125 328.52 30%
26 97.50 75.38 22.13 22.125 489.52 23%
27 61.50 77.25 -15.75 15.75 248.06 26%
28 96.00 77.63 18.38 18.375 337.64 19%
29 79.50 78.25 1.25 1.25 1.56 2%
30 72.00 78.50 -6.50 6.5 42.25 9%
31 79.50 77.63 1.88 1.875 3.52 2%
32 64.50 78.25 -13.75 13.75 189.06 21%
33 99.00 77.25 21.75 21.75 473.06 22%
34 72.00 79.25 -7.25 7.25 52.56 10%
35 78.00 78.75 -0.75 0.75 0.56 1%
36 63.00 79.75 -16.75 16.75 280.56 27%
37 66.00 76.88 -10.88 10.875 118.27 16%
38 84.00 77.38 6.63 6.625 43.89 8%
39 66.00 76.25 -10.25 10.25 105.06 16%
40 87.00 76.63 10.38 10.375 107.64 12%
41 61.50 75.88 -14.38 14.375 206.64 23%
42 81.00 74.38 6.63 6.625 43.89 8%
43 76.50 75.13 1.38 1.375 1.89 2%
44 84.00 74.88 9.13 9.125 83.27 11%
45 57.00 76.50 -19.50 19.5 380.25 34%
46 84.00 73.00 11.00 11 121.00 13%
47 73.50 74.00 -0.50 0.5 0.25 1%
48 78.00 73.63 4.38 4.375 19.14 6%
49 49.50 74.88 -25.38 25.375 643.89 51%
50 78.00 73.50 4.50 4.5 20.25 6%
51 88.50 73.00 15.50 15.5 240.25 18%
52 51.00 74.88 -23.88 23.875 570.02 47%
53 85.50 71.88 13.63 13.625 185.64 16%
54 58.50 73.88 -15.38 15.375 236.39 26%
55 90.00 72.00 18.00 18 324.00 20%
56 60.00 73.13 -13.13 13.125 172.27 22%
57 78.00 71.13 6.88 6.875 47.27 9%
58 66.00 72.88 -6.88 6.875 47.27 10%
59 97.50 71.38 26.13 26.125 682.52 27%
60 64.50 73.38 -8.88 8.875 78.77 14%
61 72.00 72.25 -0.25 0.25 0.06 0%
62 66.00 74.13 -8.13 8.125 66.02 12%
63 73.50 73.13 0.38 0.375 0.14 1%
64 66.00 71.88 -5.88 5.875 34.52 9%
65 73.50 73.13 0.38 0.375 0.14 1%
66 103.50 72.13 31.38 31.375 984.39 30%
67 60.00 75.88 -15.88 15.875 252.02 26%
68 81.00 73.38 7.63 7.625 58.14 9%
69 87.00 75.13 11.88 11.875 141.02 14%
70 73.50 75.88 -2.38 2.375 5.64 3%
71 90.00 76.50 13.50 13.5 182.25 15%
72 78.00 75.88 2.13 2.125 4.52 3%
73 87.00 77.00 10.00 10 100.00 11%
74 99.00 78.25 20.75 20.75 430.56 21%
75 72.00 81.00 -9.00 9 81.00 13%

ME MAE MSE MAPE

76 80.88 0.91 11.03 181.95 15%
77 80.88 RMSE
13.49 12.07
LL 67.39 68.80
UL 94.36 92.95
Confidence 68%

30%
X
APE
X
26%

X
20%

21 Time 75
Average(Y(t),Y(t-1),Y(t-2))
No Atron readings Forecast
1 60 60

2 81 60.0

3 72 70.5
4 78 71.3
5 61.5 74.6
6 78 68.1
7 57 73.0
8 84 65.0
9 72 74.5
10 67.5 73.3
11 99 70.4
12 25.5 84.7
13 93 55.1
14 75 74.0
15 57 74.5
16 88.5 65.8
17 76.5 77.1
18 82.5 76.8
19 72 79.7
20 76.5 75.8
21 75 76.2
22 78 75.6
23 66 76.8
24 97.5 71.4
25 60 84.4
26 97.5 72.2
27 61.5 84.9
28 96 73.2
29 79.5 84.6
30 72 82.0
31 79.5 77.0
32 64.5 78.3
33 99 71.4
34 72 85.2
35 78 78.6
36 63 78.3
37 66 70.6
38 84 68.3
39 66 76.2
40 87 71.1
41 61.5 79.0
42 81 70.3
43 76.5 75.6
44 84 76.1
45 57 80.0
46 84 68.5
47 73.5 76.3
48 78 74.9
49 49.5 76.4
50 78 63.0
51 88.5 70.5
52 51 79.5
53 85.5 65.2
54 58.5 75.4
55 90 66.9
56 60 78.5
57 78 69.2
58 66 73.6
59 97.5 69.8
60 64.5 83.7
61 72 74.1
62 66 73.0
63 73.5 69.5
64 66 71.5
65 73.5 68.8
66 103.5 71.1
67 60 87.3
68 81 73.7
69 87 77.3
70 73.5 82.2
71 90 77.8
72 78 83.9
73 87 81.0
74 99 84.0
75 72 91.5
α 0.5

F1=Y1
Ft+1 = α*Yt + (1-α) Ft
Method Mape
NF1 26%
MA(3) 17%
MA(12) 15%
120.00

100.00

80.00

60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00
21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71
 Actual
Forecast

59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75