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MT 116 Probability PDF
MT 116 Probability PDF
DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS
MT116 LINEAR ALGEBRA AND PROBABILITY FOR ENGINEERING — 2019 TUTORIAL 3/AM
P (A1 ∪A2 ∪A3 ) = P (A1 )+P (A2 )+P (A3 )−P (A1 ∩A2 )−P (A2 ∩A3 )−P (A3 ∩A1 )+P (A1 ∩A2 ∩A3 ).
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15. A computer program generates random questions in arithmetic that children have to answer
within a fixed time. The probability of the first question being answered correctly is 0.8.
Whenever a question is answered correctly, the next question generated is more difficult, and
the probability of a correct answer being given is reduced by 0.1. Whenever a question is
answered wrongly, the next question is of the same standard, and the probability of a correct
answer being given remains unchanged.
(i) Find the probability that the second question is answered correctly.
(ii) By extending the tree diagram, or otherwise, find the probability that the second question
is answered correctly given that the third question is answered correctly.
16. A certain test for HIV infection has a probability of 0.95 of testing positive when a patient
is infected and a probability of 0.1 of testing positive when a patient is not infected. Given
an area with 40% HIV infection, find the probability that a patient is infected is he/she has
tested positive.
17. The probability that a car accident is due to faulty brakes is 0.02, the probability that a car
accident is correctly attributed to faulty brakes is 0.95, and the probability that a car accident
is incorrectly attributed to faulty brakes is 0.01. Calculate the probability that a car accident
which is attributed to faulty brakes was due to faulty brakes.
18. In a certain factory there are two machines producing the same brand of light bulbs. The
first machine produces 10% and the second machine produces 90% of the bulbs. Let the
probability that the first machine turns out a defective light bulb be 1% and the probability
that the second machine turns out a defective light bulb be 5%.
(i) What is the probability that a bulb drawn at random from the production line is defective.
(ii) Given that a bulb is defective, what is the probability that it was produced by the first
machine.
(iii) Given that a bulb is not defective, find the probability that it was produced by a second
machine.