ANALISIS DAN SISTEM KEPUTUSAN

Prof. DR. techn. Mohammad Isa Irawan, MT

RIO INDRALAKSONO
6032201136

Answer:

Phisycal Condition
Pitcher
No Injuries Normal Excessive Injuries
Jerry Damon 173 135 46
Frank Thompson 133 115 88
Derek Rodriguez 105 101 95
Ken Griffin 127 98 75
Max 173 135 95
Min 105 98 46
The best pitcher to sign according to decision criteria:
a. Maximax (Maximum output on optimal condition) = Jerry Damon
b. Maximin (Maximum outpot on poor condition) = Derek Rodriguez

ɑ = 0,35
Phisycal Condition
Pitcher No Excessive Best Normal Worst Result
Normal
Injuries Injuries
Jose Diaz 153 122 76 53,55 42,7 26,6 122,85
Jerry Damon 173 135 46 60,55 47,25 16,1 123,9
Frank Thompson 133 115 88 46,55 40,25 30,8 117,6
Derek Rodriguez 105 101 95 36,75 35,35 33,25 105,35
Ken Griffin 127 98 75 44,45 34,3 26,25 105

c. Equal Likelihood = Jerry Damon (with result 123,9)

ɑ = 0,35
Phisycal Condition
No Excessive
Pitcher Best Worst Result
Normal
Injuries Injuries

Jose Diaz 153 122 76 53,55 49,4 102,95

Jerry Damon 173 135 46 60,55 29,9 90,45
Frank Thompson 133 115 88 46,55 57,2 103,75
Derek Rodriguez 105 101 95 36,75 61,75 98,5
Ken Griffin 127 98 75 44,45 48,75 93,2

d. Hurwicz = Frank Thompson (with result 103,75)

2. Geiven the following sequantial decision tree, determine which is the optimal
investment, A or B

Answer:
Ev (9) = 0,35 ($105.000) + 0,66($40.000) = $62.750
Ev (8) = 0,2 ($200.000) + 0,8($70.000) = $96.000
Ev (7) = 0,4 ($300.000) + 0,6($60.000) = $156.000
Ev (6) = max((Ev(9) - $9.000 ; $55.000) = $55.000
Ev (5) = max((Ev(8) - $17.000 ; $60.000 = $79.000
Ev (4) = max((Ev(7) - $20.000 ; $45.000 = $136.000
Ev (3) = 0.3($80.000)+0.55($55.000)+0.15($79.000 ) = $66.100
Ev (2) = 0.3($136.000)+0.7($75.000) = $93.300

Optimal Investment is investment A

3. Selesaikan permasalahan sebagai berikut:

a. Berdasarkan decision tree analisys di atas, Tech harus mengejar 2 poin untuk meperoleh hasil
optimal
b. Probabilitas kemenangan pada babak perpanjangan waktu minimal adalah sebesar 0,34 agar
mempengaruhi keputusan yang akan diambil