Environ Dev Sustain (2017) 19:1473–1487

DOI 10.1007/s10668-016-9815-6

Scenario of future e-waste generation and recycle-reuse-

landfill-based disposal pattern in India: a system
dynamics approach

Dipsikha Dasgupta1 • Anupam Debsarkar1 • Tumpa Hazra1 •

B. K. Bala2 • Amitava Gangopadhyay3 • Debasish Chatterjee4

Received: 5 January 2016 / Accepted: 17 May 2016 / Published online: 24 May 2016
 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Abstract The fundamental requirements of the e-waste management system are the
forecasting of the future generation of e-waste and in situ planning to minimize the risk.
The prediction analysis (a simulation exercise with base year 2012 and end year 2025) for
several e-waste items (desktop, notebook, refrigerator, television and washing machine)
reflects an increasing waste generation pattern. The present study deals with the prediction
of e-waste generation and the percentage distribution of e-waste through different disposal
pathways (landfill, second-hand market and recycling) based on the system dynamics
approach (using STELLA software, version 8.0) for the purpose of improved management
practice in near future in India. During the prediction of disposal options, the role,
importance and functionality of various pathways are also critically analyzed. The simu-
lation results indicate that the specific route of e-waste disposal will largely control the
e-waste generation in India as informal sectors, in future, will solely utilize recycle and
reuse pathways due to the economics of the specific components of the generated e-waste.
On the other hand, the percentage of landfillable e-waste will decrease from 8.06 to 6.54 %
within a decade (2012–2025). Finally, the study emphasizes on delineation of a well-
composed guideline for policy orientation to protect the human health and environment, as
e-waste items and their various components often emit toxic substances particularly during
informal trade chain practices.

Keywords System dynamics  Simulation  E-waste generation  Electronics appliances

& Anupam Debsarkar

anupamju1972@gmail.com
1
Environmental Engineering Division, Department of Civil Engineering, Jadavpur University,
Kolkata 700 032, India
2
Department of Agro Product Processing Technology, Jessore University of Science and
Technology, Jessore 7408, Bangladesh
3
Department of Civil Engineering, Brainware Engineering College, S.D.E.T-Brainware Group of
Institute, Barasat, Ramkrishnapur, Kolkata 700 124, India
4
Department of Chemistry, University of Kalyani, Kalyani, West Bengal 741 235, India

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1 Introduction

Electronic waste (e-waste) is an emerging global challenge due to the rapid obsolescence
of technology coupled with informal ways of recycling and reuse particularly in devel-
oping countries (Ongondo et al. 2011). Baldé et al. 2015 estimated that the global gen-
eration of e-waste was 42 million tons (MT) in 2014 and it is likely to be increased to 72
MT by 2017 (Ikhlayel 2016; Jaiswal et al. 2015). Presently, the global generated e-waste is
more than 5 % of the total generated municipal solid waste stream with USA alone
producing nearly 10 MT of e-waste annually (Wu et al. 2015).
Information on the generation, disposal and flow of e-waste is important in the planning
of future effective management strategies. In this context, developed countries have
advanced reasonably in the sphere of policy development and implementation program to
manage the e-waste.
Developed countries have standard protocols and regulations to handle huge quantity of
generated e-waste, whereas the scenario is entirely different and complex in the developing
countries with the increasing generation of e-waste (Ongondo et al. 2011). The revolu-
tionary growth of electronics industry especially of consumer durable e-items is deemed to
be a significant contributor of e-waste generation. Presently, the consumption pattern has
been dramatically shifted to multicomponent consumer appliances notably, desktop,
notebook, television, refrigerator and washing machine.
Electronic appliances usually have a definite lifecycle, and after a certain time span they
become out of order. At this point, the consumer has the option of either replacing the end-
of-life e-item by a more advanced or stylistic product or to sell the out-of-order e-items in
the second-hand market. These products are then reused after necessary refurbishment. The
products that are not suitable for reuse become scrap and sent for recycling or landfilling
(Jaiswal et al. 2015).
A large section of the population of developing countries such as India and China often
opt for buying second-hand products due to economic constraint (Sinha-Khetriwal et al.
2005; Wath et al. 2010). In India, the second-hand electronics items have a lucrative
market, which is being mostly operated at the outskirts of the megacities (Ongondo et al.
2011). Cucchiella et al. 2015 reported that the majority of e-items (mostly obsolete) were
imported illegally from the developed countries to the developing countries, primarily for
recycling and disposal purpose due to greater availability of manpower and lack of proper
environmental protocols. Li et al. (2013) reported that among discarded e-items only
repairable parts used to go to the second-hand market and residual portion got mixed with
municipal solid waste. The occurrence of this illegal transportation of electronics items has
also contributed to the e-waste generation in the developing countries (Needhidasan et al.
2014). Expansions of second-hand market for electronic industries are a major factor of the
growth of informal e-waste recycling hub in India (Sinha-Khetriwal et al. 2005).
The major problem of e-waste management in India is that almost 95 % recycling
operation is carried out by the informal sectors, which are reasonably organized (Awasthi
et al. 2016). Though presently almost 138 formal e-waste recycling setups have come up to
mitigate the problem, they are only getting a meager share of total generated e-waste
(Awasthi et al. 2016; CPCB 2014). The informal sectors have several issues of concern
such as health of the workers, environmental pollution caused by open burning, exposure to
hazardous substances during handling of e-waste, etc. In the informal recycling hub, even
the women and children are forced to work in an unhygienic environment. They often
handle acids and heavy metals with bare hand without protective measures (Ha et al. 2009).

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Scenario of future e-waste generation and recycle-reuse… 1475

In India, E-waste Management and Handling Rules (EMHR) (2011) have already been
implemented from May 12, 2012. However, it has so far been practiced in a very relaxed
way by the enforcing agencies. It requires regular surveillance to explore the fate of
e-waste in different disposal routes, viz. landfill, second-hand market and recycling of
e-waste.
E-waste is undoubtedly an upcoming crisis for the world (Garlapati 2016). A prediction
of quantum of e-waste likely to be generated in near future is of utmost importance for
proper policy orientation (Karavezyris et al. 2002). In India, till date there exist no vali-
dated data regarding e-waste generation. Consequently, a research gap is envisaged on the
prediction of e-waste generation and potential of recycle-reuse-landfill-based disposal
pattern in India.
In this paper, a system dynamics approach has been considered to predict, for nearly a
decade, the quantum of e-waste generation as well as percentage distribution of e-waste
disposal through different pathways (landfill, second-hand market and recycling) for
improved management practice in future.

1.1 E-waste generation in India and its prediction: earlier studies

E-wastes are commonly generated from various sectors such as domestic, industrial (no-
tably IT sectors), institutional and governmental sectors. In India, the discarded e-equip-
ments (CRT, PCB, PWB) are frequently disposed off along with regular wastes (both
municipal and industrial) and their quantification is limited (Dwivedy and Mittal 2013).
The available studies are primarily based on estimation of e-waste generation without
proper validation for future prediction (Wath et al. 2010). Task force on waste electrical
and electronic equipment (WEEE task force) estimated the national e-waste generation as
1.46 9 105 T year-1 in 2005, and further prediction was 4.2 9 105 T for the year 2009
(Wath et al. 2010), whereas CPCB estimated the generation as 1.35 9 105 T over the
similar time span with a rise of 8.0 9 105 T till 2012 (Research unit, Rajya Sabha, New
Delhi 2010). In another study, jointly conducted by Manufacturers’ Association for
Information Technology (MAIT) and German Technical Cooperation Agency (GTZ), the
e-waste generation in 2007 was predicted as 3.3 9 105 T, which was supposed to reach
4.7 9 105 T by 2011 (MAIT-GTZ 2007). According to Associated Chambers of Com-
merce of India (ASSOCHAM), the quantum of e-waste generated was 15 9 105 T in 2015
(Garlapati 2016). These studies clearly indicated a different e-waste generation scenario,
and they also suffered from major lacunas related to availability of reliable data bank,
understanding of real-life scenario of discarded pattern of the e-items and methodologies
involved in the prediction process.

1.1.1 Factors influencing e-waste generation

In India, the e-waste generation scenario has been significantly influenced by globalization
(Dasgupta et al. 2014), especially when the booming of electrical and electronics appli-
ances consumption took place at a galloping rate (Jain 2008). The expansion of such
industries occurred because of several factors such as low manufacturing costs, skilled and
cheap labor, availability of technical and nontechnical skills, high population density, and
enhancement of disposable income of growing middle class. Later on, the obsolesce rate
and pattern of e-appliances have escalated due to some factors such as rapid introduction of
new brands, reduction in price, alluring advertisement, attractive offers, portability and

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user-friendly system, and changes in the consumer behavior toward procurement of e-items
(Baji and Chandrasekhar 2013; Wath et al. 2011).

1.1.2 Growth rate and life span of common e-appliances in India

The growth rate (sales) of five most common Indian electronics items (desktop, notebook,
refrigerator, television and washing machine) and their predicted value, obtained on
extrapolation over the period (2008–2012), has been shown in Fig. 1 (Dwivedy and Mittal
2010).
The aforementioned figure clearly indicates that the rate of increase (sales) in all
domestic appliances (for desktop &44 times, notebook &333 times, television &12
times, refrigerator &4 times and washing machine &4 times) over nearly two decades
(1996–2012) results in increase in obsolescence rate and consequent e-waste generation
(Bandyopadhyay 2010; Jain and Sareen 2006).
Another challenging task is to understand the role of several factors such as average
lifetime of e-items, rise in obsolesce rate with respect to increased per capita consumption
of e-items and their relationship with e-waste generation. The falling lifespan of electronics
equipments over the years has also been a major factor of e-waste generation (CPU
lifespan: 4–6 years in 1997, 2 years in 2005) (Babu et al. 2007). The life span (average) of
different e-items is shown in Table 1.

1.1.3 Disposal options and pattern

In India, the generated e-waste is disposed off in various ways, viz. reuse, storage, land-
filling and recycling. Among these, the reuse practice is principally dependent on the
market demand of the product (selling). Again, the products could be given to other

Fig. 1 Growth rate of domestic appliances in India

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Scenario of future e-waste generation and recycle-reuse… 1477

Table 1 Life span (average) and

E-appliances Lifetime in years Average weight (in kg/unit)
weight (average) of common
e-appliances in India. Source
(Dwivedy and Mittal 2010) Refrigerator 10 30
Washing machine 10 27
Desktop 3 27.2
Television 8 24
Notebook 3 2.9

persons on loan or in the name of charity. Alternatively, equipments, which are out of
order, can be stored. After a definite time span, different e-items become e-waste.
Thereafter, they are either dumped at the landfill or are taken for recycling operations
(Dwivedy and Mittal 2010).
Dwivedy and Mittal (2010) reported that most of the generated obsolete e-items are
reused after repairing, while a negligibly small portion is being stored. For example,
refrigerator and washing machine have higher reuse potential (&70 %) in comparison with
personal computer and television (&50 %). Dwivedy and Mittal (2010) also reported that
in India, about 70 % of generated e-items (refrigerators, washing machines, etc.) were
reused.
Dwivedy and Mittal (2010) also reported that considerable amount of obsolete e-items
(personal computer and television &50 % and refrigerator and washing machine &70 %)
is being stored.
In India, there is prevalent practice of open dumping of e-waste by landfilling at the end
of recycling or dismantling operation (The Hindu 2009). Dwivedy and Mittal (2010)
predicted that nearly 5 % of obsolete personal computer and television and nearly 2 % of
large e-items (refrigerator, washing machine, etc.) by and large end up to landfill.

2 System dynamics approach: historical importance and application

Jay Forrester (MIT, USA, 1960) developed system dynamics, a modeling and simulation
methodology for analyzing long-term dynamic behavior of complex systems such as
industrial system management issues, problem of waste management system. The basic
system structure along with effects of various subsystems and their interdependence has
been studied by using system dynamical tools (Forrester 1961).
System dynamics modeling has had a wide range of application for various types of
feedback mechanism systems ranging from business, environmental, ecological, agricul-
tural, socioeconomic and political decision-making systems (Dyson and Chang 2005).
Environmental concerns also have been duly addressed by system dynamics approach,
such as low-land salt accumulation for irrigation practice (Saysel and Barlas 2001), dioxin
exposure from the supply chain to the chicken, eutrophication in shallow fresh water lakes
(Guneralp and Barlas 2003), agricultural development and sustainability (Shi and Gill
2005), methane emission from rice fields (Anand et al. 2005) and waste management
(Dyson and Chang 2005; Guo et al. 2001; Karavezyris et al. 2002; Sudhir et al. 1997;
Suffian and Bala 2007; Ulli-Beer 2003). Construction and Demolition (C&D) wastes are a
matter of great concern in modern societies. System dynamics has been applied to design
policy that can aid decision-making as regard to C&D waste reduction (Yuan et al. 2012).

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Karavezyris et al. (2002) studied the estimation of solid waste generation using system
dynamics and fuzzy logic approach. The waste management model they discussed is
focused on a number of controlling factors, viz. environmental behavior, waste treatment
price, calculations of collected, treated and recycled wastes and regulations thereof. Dyson
and Chang (2005) estimated solid waste generation in Texas, USA (Urban set up) by
considering the population belonging to high economic class. They considered five factors
that could influence solid waste generation, viz. total income per service center, people per
house hold, historical amount generated, income per house hold and population.
The dynamic nature of interactions among the various elements of urban solid waste
management systems in a metropolis of India was investigated by employing a system
dynamical approach (Sudhir et al. 1997). This study provoked a debate on different
structural and policy preferences that will be advantageous to sustainable solid waste
management. Feedback theory on human behavior and public policy that emphasizes both
the values of contextual and personal factors was considered by Ulli-Beer (2003) for
analyzing various local policy initiatives in solid waste recycling. Suffian and Bala (2007)
presented a system dynamics computer model to predict solid waste generation, collection
capacity and electricity generation from solid waste and assessed the necessity for waste
management of Dhaka city, Bangladesh.
Considering the research and literature gaps in the modeling of e-waste management
systems, a system dynamics model for e-waste generation has been developed under the
purview of the present study, first time in the Indian context, by considering e-waste
generated from five major electronics appliances, viz. television, desktop, notebook,
refrigerator and washing machine.

3 System dynamics (SD) model for e-waste generation and disposal

systems

The management of E-waste in India is a complex, dynamic and multifaceted system

depending not only on available technology but also on economic and social factors.
Forrester’s system dynamics methodology provides a foundation for developing computer
models to do what the human mind cannot do that is to rationally analyze the structure, the
interactions and mode of behavior of complex socioeconomic, technological, and envi-
ronmental systems (Bala 1999; Forrester 1968). System dynamics methodology is based on
feedback concepts. Multiloop nonlinear and time-lagged complex systems can be handled
easily following this approach. With traditional econometric techniques, it is exceedingly
difficult to capture fully the nonlinear dynamic relationships (Stephens et al. 2013). System
dynamics methodology is best suited for the problems associated with continuous pro-
cesses where feedback significantly affects the behavior of a system, producing dynamic
changes in system behavior. Discrete Event System (DES) models, in contrast, are better at
providing a detailed analysis of systems involving linear processes and modeling discrete
changes in system behavior.
The study presented in this paper uses system dynamics methodology to model and to
analyze the performances of the e-waste generation, landfill, reuse and recycling in India.
Stock flow diagram of e-waste generation, landfill, reuse and recycling in India is
hypothesized to generate the reference behavior of e-waste generation and disposal system
in India. The key factors influencing e-waste generation, landfill, reuse and recycling in

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Scenario of future e-waste generation and recycle-reuse… 1479

India are per capita e-waste generation and population. Per capita e-waste generation
depends on per capita GDP and the population which increases by birth rate and decreases
by death rate. The e-waste after collection is transferred to the landfill site, second-hand
market and recycling unit. If our hypothesis is correct, this stock flow diagram when
simulated would generate the reference mode behavior of the e-waste generation, landfill,
reuse and recycling in India. The fundamental assumptions of the model are as follows:
1. The generation of e-wastes depends on per capita consumption of e-items and
population
2. Per capita consumption of e-items depends on per capita GDP.
3. The distribution of e-items is assumed to be uniform over the whole spectrum of
population, irrespective of economic class, lifestyle, etc. This assumption is forced
upon us due to the lack of proper statistical data regarding distribution of e-items
according to different economic classes for India
In the stock flow diagram, the building blocks of the model are stock and flow. The
mathematical equations that describe stock and flow structures are represented by integral
equations in form:
Zt
stock ðtÞ ¼ stock(t0 Þ þ jinflowðsÞ  outflow ðsÞjds ð1Þ
t0

where inflow (s) and outflow (s) represent the value of inflow and outflow, respectively, at
any time between the initial time t0 and the current time t.
In STELLA
stock ðtÞ ¼ stock(t  DtÞ þ inflow  Dt  outflow  Dt ð2Þ

The stock is a state variable, and it represents the state or condition of the system at any
time t. The stock is represented by a rectangle. The flow shows how the stock changes with
time and it is represented by a valve symbol. The flow with arrow toward the stock
indicates inflow, and the flow with arrow outwards indicates outflow. The lines with arrow
are influence lines, and the direction indicates the direction of information flow. The
variable/factor at the starting point indicates the variable/factor affecting the vari-
able/factor at the terminating point and this in essence shows how one variable/factor
influences other variable/factor with direction of information flow.
We have five types of e-waste and we can create a dimension entitled ‘e-waste types’
which contains desktop, note books, refrigerator, television and washing machine. The
STELLA stock flow diagram with one-dimensional array of desktop, note books, refrig-
erator, television and washing machine in e-waste generation, landfill, reuse and recycling
model is shown in Fig. 2. The multiple stocks or parameters together in a single stock or
parameter indicates an array variable or parameter with the elements of desktop, note-
books, refrigerator, television and washing machine. The use of the array greatly simplifies
the stock flow diagram where repeated similar computations are required.
Several softwares such as STELLA, VENSIM and POWERSIM are available for
solving the equations numerically in system dynamics models and all of these softwares
are equally good for simulating system dynamics models. STELLA equations in this study
were solved numerically using Runge–Kutta fourth-order method using STELLA software.

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e waste model

landf ill
per capita gdp

av erage lif e time per capita e item

per e waste generation consumption transf er rate f or landf ill

~
per capita obsolence total landf ill
collection f raction f raction to landf ill
second hand market
e waste generation e waste collection

e waste collection rate rate of transf er f or

e waste generation rate
second hand market

total second hand

f raction to second market
recy cle
hand market

total waste generation

rate of transf er
population f or recy cly ing

birth rate death rate total recy cling

f raction to recy cling

death f raction
birth f raction

Fig. 2 Stock flow diagram of e-waste generation and disposal systems in India

4 Initial and parameter values

In this model, there are four types of stocks, i.e., (1) generated e-waste from e-items (e-
waste washing machine, e-waste refrigerator, e-waste notebook, e-waste television and
e-waste desktop), (2) collected e-waste from the above e-items (e-waste collection from
desktop, notebook, refrigerator, washing machine and television), (3) population and (4)
disposal pathways like landfill (landfill from washing machine, desktop, notebook, tele-
vision and refrigerator), recycling (recycle from desktop, notebook, refrigerator, washing
machine and television) and e-waste in second-hand market (second-hand market from
desktop, notebook, refrigerator, washing machine and television). The initial values of the
stocks of each generated as well as disposed e-waste items are given in Table 2.
Population is another vital stock value for the present study. The initial stock value of
the population was 1239196900 for 2012, which is obtained from the best-fit curve drawn
against known population values over the period (2007–2011) and extrapolated for the year
2012. The birth rate and death rate are 21.378 and 6.84 in thousand population. (http://
www.medindia.net/health_statistics/general/birthdeath). It is expected that with the
increase in population, the e-waste generation will certainly increase over the years.

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Scenario of future e-waste generation and recycle-reuse… 1481

Table 2 Initial stock values (generated and disposed) of e-waste items. Source (Dwivedy and Mittal 2010)
List of e-items Initial stock values of e-waste in metric ton (as on 2012)

Generated Disposed Recycled Sent to second-hand

from e-items to landfill market for reuse

Desktop 173,726.4 18,958.4 95,417.6 86,795.2

Notebook 128,81.8 774.3 3158.1 6446.7
Refrigerator 104,175 4230 17,430 72,930
Washing machine 37,773 1512 6102 26,487
Television 252,792 21,360 107,976 111,600

In this model, e-waste collection factor (fraction of e-waste collected from washing
machine, notebook, desktop, refrigerator and television) is assigned a value ‘1’ as it is
assumed in the present study that the entire amount of generated e-waste from e-items
(desktop, notebook, refrigerator, washing machine and television) is collected and after
collection they are sent through different disposal routes (i.e., landfill, recycling and
e-waste in second-hand market). It is noteworthy that, in India, the consumers prefer
gaining profit from their discarded e-items and consequently instead of storing the obsolete
e-items for a long period in their household they prefer to sell them primarily to the
informal e-waste handlers like waste pickers (kabadiwallas), etc. (Wath et al. 2010). The
parameter values of the fraction to landfill, fraction to recycle and fraction to second-hand
market are given in Table 3.
Other important parameters are per capita GDP, per capita consumption of e-items and
per capita obsolescence of e-items. Per capita GDP is obtained dividing the GDP by the
population, which indicates the purchasing capacity of the population. If per capita GDP
increases, the purchasing capacity of population will also increase which will lead to an
increase in per capita consumption of e-items (Baji and Chandrasekhar 2013). The per
capita GDP of Indian population varies linearly with time.
Similarly, per capita consumption of e-items has also been estimated. The value of per
capita consumption of a particular e-item is obtained by dividing the total consumption by
the population. The relationships between per capita consumption of e-items such as
television, desktop, refrigerator and per capita GDP of Indian population are mostly linear
(Fig. 3), while the relationships between per capita consumption of notebook, washing
machine and per capita GDP of Indian population are polynomial (Fig. 4) (Dwivedy and
Mittal 2010).

Table 3 Parameter values of e-waste items disposed via landfill, recycle and second-hand market. Source
(Dwivedy and Mittal 2010)
E-waste items Fraction to landfill Fraction to recycle Fraction to
second-hand
market

Desktop 0.05 0.2 0.5

Notebook 0.05 0.2 0.5
Refrigerator 0.02 0.08 0.7
Washing Machine 0.02 0.08 0.7
Television 0.05 0.2 0.5

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1482 D. Dasgupta et al.

Fig. 3 Relationships between per capita GDP and per capita consumption of e-items such as television,
desktop and refrigerator

Fig. 4 Relationships between per capita GDP and per capita consumption of e-items such as notebook and
washing machine

The per capita obsolescence is computed dividing per capita consumption of an e-item
by the average lifetime of that e-item. For example, per capita obsolescence of washing
machine is given as per capita consumption of washing machine divided by average
lifetime of washing machine. In all cases, the value of ‘Coefficient of Determination’ (R2)
was in the range of 0.95–0.98, which ensures the quality of data.

5 Model validation

The model was simulated using the initial and parameter values presented in Tables 2 and
3 to explore the suitability of utilizing the model under real-life situation. In this context,
the model was validated by comparing the simulated results with those of other validated

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Scenario of future e-waste generation and recycle-reuse… 1483

Fig. 5 Predicted and reported

values of e-waste generation with
time (Dwivedy and Mittal 2010)

models (Dwivedy and Mittal 2010; Sargent 2011), which is justified as real-life data in this
regard are limited and accessibility is restricted. Figure 5 shows a comparative scenario of
predicted and reported values (Dwivedy and Mittal 2010) of e-waste generation. The
agreement between the predicted and reported data is reasonably good (i.e., R2 is 0.99), and
thus, the model can be used for prediction of the e-waste generation and policy analysis for
better e-waste management.
The existing discrepancy in the plots of Fig. 5 is due to fact that reported values
(Dwivedy and Mittal 2010) include contributions from reused e-items that had become
obsolete during preceding years.

6 Results and discussion

The simulated values of total e-waste generated (desktop, notebook, refrigerator, television
and washing machine) are shown in Fig. 6 from which year-wise growth of e-waste
generation for each e-item can be estimated. The projection scenario is different for each of
the e-items such as desktop, notebook, refrigerator, television and washing machine,
whereas the disposal scenario is different for different pathways (Fig. 6).
It is observed that the predicted values of the generated e-waste for different e-items are
gradually increasing. Among total generated e-waste (639,513.70 metric tons in 2025),
desktop shows the highest rate of increase, whereas washing machine indicates the lowest
increase rate in 2025. The rate of increase in generation of e-waste from other e-items is in
between. The possible explanation for generation of e-waste from different e-items may be
due to increase in per capita GDP of Indian population that leads to increase in the
purchasing capacity of the population. The possible reason behind the highest rate of
increase of e-waste generated from desktop could be the massive usage of computer among
the next generation users (Wath et al. 2010). On the other hand, generation rate of e-waste
from washing machine will be relatively low in 2025, as its lifetime is relatively high and it
is generally confined mostly among the rich people in urban areas of India. This suggests
that the usage pattern of the e-items is definitely playing an important role in e-waste
generation where these items are gradually penetrating among the rural population with
varying compounding growth rate (The Hindu, Business line 2012).

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1484 D. Dasgupta et al.

Fig. 6 Simulated e-waste generation and disposal scenario of India

The computer projection of e-waste generation based on system dynamics approach

clearly indicates that the handling of e-wastes is an important issue. The disposal practice
of these e-items is another issue of concern. It has already been reported that several
options (reuse, recycle and landfill) are practiced with regard to the e-waste management
system (Dwivedy and Mittal 2010). In this context, an attempt has been made to predict the
role of each disposal option in e-waste management.
A computer-projected e-waste management option in Fig. 6 shows that the highest
amount of e-items, i.e., 3,904,608.14 metric tons in 2025, are reaching to second-hand
market (increase by 12.83 times) and these items are reused in various forms and purposes
especially by the low-income group. This trend has also been reported by earlier workers
(Wath et al. 2010). The recycle option has also been investigated where the increase
(1,248,037.32 metric tons in 2025) is more than fivefold compared to the 2012 value.
These rates of increase (reuse and recycle) are, in fact, a matter of real concern in terms of
both environmental pollution and human exposure (Robinson 2009). The basic issue is
that, although the processes such as reuse and recycling ought to be carried out in a formal
setup with adequate scientific assistance, in reality the informal sectors predominate in the
Indian context. These informal sectors usually follow age-old operational practices without
taking care of eco-friendliness and hygienic requirement (Kidee et al. 2013). The informal
sector has now a potential fulcrum of the environmental issues along with some health
disorders especially for the workers that may occur due to long-term exposure. It is
surprising to note that the landfilled amount in 2025 (&0.4 million metric tons) is sig-
nificantly low (6.53 %) when compared to the other two options. However, the importance
of landfill is difficult to advocate because the real-life data in this regard are inadequate. It
is important to note that design and construction of engineered landfill are desirable in
terms of both disposal of e-waste and environmental protection (Dwivedy and Mittal
2010).

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Scenario of future e-waste generation and recycle-reuse… 1485

7 Conclusion

In India, three factors, viz. usage patterns of various e-items, e-waste generation and
disposal, have collectively formed a complex issue where consumers prefer to draw benefit
from the disposal pattern such as reuse and recycling. The present study reveals that the
disposal options (reuse and recycling) will increase with time. The study further advocates
that the reuse practice is mostly dominated by the second-hand market due to economic
inequity and demand-driven market policy. The study also indicates that the concern for
informal handling practice of e-waste at the time of recycling and reuse of e-items must be
addressed in a proper way. The study further shows that the market share of e-waste will be
predominated by the informal sector if the present situation continues. The results obtained
(prediction data) also reflect Indian policy loopholes (EMH Rules 2011), which curb down
the responsibilities of dismantlers, producers, recyclers for the second-hand market product
which will be a major cause for the increasing reuse and recycling activity of e-waste in the
informal sector. Finally, such growth of informal sector will definitely produce an adverse
impact on environment and health and it will increase the manpower involvement in the
informal hub, particularly of women and children.

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