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Precipitation PDF
Precipitation PDF
PXPP MAT
1 check consistency - check consistency
2 compute monthly
means
TAPLOT MAPE
- get mean max/min 1 check consistency -compute 12
for mean zone elev. 2 generate daily time monthly ET
series of MAPE demand values
MAP MAT
MAPX
1. ‘Poor man’s” reanalysis
NWS Calibration Workshop, LMRFC March, 2009 slide 1
Analysis of Precipitation
• Non-Mountainous Areas
– Long Term Means Vary Slightly Across the Region
– Station Weights Based Totally on Location
• Mountainous Areas
– Long Term Means Vary Across the Region
– Ratio of Monthly Normals Used when Estimating
Missing Data
– Long Term Areal Mean Based on Isohyetal Analysis
– Station Weights Typically Don’t Sum to 1.0
Station Variation
0 1-10% >10%
H H
D
D D
D
H
D D
D
D D
H
D
H
D
H
D
D
H
D
H
D
Main river
channel
Standard Rain Gauge
– PXPP/MAP/MAT/MAPE
estimated data
+
0
documented station change
-
A B
calibration verification
i1
Px
i1 i1 n - 1 0
Pre-processor Pre-processor
controls controls
Pre-processor Legacy
New correction
Input file Calibration
IDMA factors
Pre-processor
Current correction Current correction
-MAP
Factors Factors
-PXPP
-MAT
-MAPE
Accumulated
point time series
Mean areal
(‘dma’ file)
Time series
NWS Calibration Workshop, LMRFC March, 2009 slide 14
Pre-processor: program for analyzing precipitation, temperature, evaporation data
IDMA Steps
• Group stations geographically
• Identify missing data (white lines in IDMA)
• Identify station moves
• Pick period to correct to (usually the most
recent)
Complex case
Accumulation of Group Base
0
3
1
-
2
CF>1.0 CF<1.0 CF=1.0
estimated data
0
documented station change
-
0
documented station change
Good candidate for
- correction
0
Oct-88
Oct-89
Oct-90
Oct-91
Oct-92
Oct-93
Oct-94
Oct-95
Oct-96
Oct-97
Oct-98
Oct-99
Oct-00
Oct-01
Oct-02
Oct-03
Oct-04
Oct-05
Accumulated Sim. Error (mm)
-100
-200
-300 March 1998
-400
-500
Accum error
-600
-700
-800
Date
Inconsistent Precipitation?
NWS Calibration Workshop, LMRFC March, 2009 slide 23
DMIP 2: North Fork American River
OHD Streamflow Simulations
OHD
Distributed
Flow (cms)
Lumped
Observed
D D
D
D D
H
D
H
D
H
D
PXPP MAT
1 check consistency - check consistency
2 compute monthy
means
TAPLOT MAPE
- get mean max/min 1 check consistency -compute 12
for mean zone elev. 2 generate daily time monthy ET
series of MAPE demand values
MAP MAT
Thiessen Polygon
2 Precipitation station
Thiessen Weighting
.
1. Overlays HRAP grid
2. Examines each grid point
1
3. Assigns grid point to closest
station
4. Station weight =
4 no. assigned points/
2 Total no. of grid points.
3
HRAP grid
1
Precipitation station
NWS Calibration Workshop, LMRFC March, 2009 slide 31
MAP3 Computational Sequence
1. Read in data and corrections
2. Applies corrections to observed data
3. Estimates missing hourly data using only other hourly stations.
n
Px
Pi w i 1
Px i1 Pi w x,i 2
n
dx,i
w
i1
x,i
Px precipitation at station being estimated
Pi precipitation at the estimator station
n number of estimating stations
i station being used as an estimator
Px mean monthly precipitation for station x
Px mean monthly precipitation for station i
w x,i station weight
dx,i distance from station x to estimator i
NWS Calibration Workshop, LMRFC March, 2009 slide 32
MAP3 Computational Sequence
continued
4. Time distribute observed daily amounts into hourly values based on
surrounding hourly stations.
1. Procedure uses 1/d2 weighting for surrounding hourly stations.
2. If all hourly stations = 0, then all precipitation is put in last hour of the
daily station. Hour of the observation time. NFAR example
5. Estimate missing daily amounts using both hourly and daily gages; time
distribute these amounts
-If all estimators are missing, then uses 0.0
6. Generates file of station and group accumulated precipitation for IDMA
7. IDMA
1. -Compute correction factors
2. -Preliminary check of correction factors
3. -Insert correction factors into input file
4. -Re-run MAP3 for final check of consistency
Base station
time
NWS Calibration Workshop, LMRFC March, 2009 slide 38
Analysis of Precipitation in Mountainous Areas
• Information to Consider
– Precipitation - Elevation Relationships, Seasonal and
Annual
– Correlation Relationships (from PXPP)
– Knowledge of Prevailing Storm Types and Tracks
(Anomaly Maps can Assist in Understanding)
• Typical Results
– Seasonal Weights in Intermountain West
– Winter Weights Based More on Elevation
– Summer Weights Based More on Distance
– Annual Weights in East and along West Coast
600
400
Period of known underestimation
(mm)
-200
-400
Jan-93 Jun-94 Oct-95 Mar-97 Jul-98 Dec-99
Time (months)
-1000
-1200
Time (months)
Re-analysis
Original
Re-analysis