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Energy 148 (2018) 208e234

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Energy
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Techno economic analysis of a wind-photovoltaic-biomass hybrid


renewable energy system for rural electrification: A case study of
Kallar Kahar
Jameel Ahmad a, *, Muhammad Imran b, Abdullah Khalid a, Waseem Iqbal a,
Syed Rehan Ashraf d, Muhammad Adnan a, Syed Farooq Ali c, Khawar Siddique Khokhar a
a
Department of Electrical Engineering School of Engineering, University of Management & Technology, C-2, Johar Town, 54770 Lahore, Pakistan
b
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, 2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark
c
Department of Software Engineering, School of System and Technology, University of Management & Technology, C-2, Johar Town, 54770 Lahore, Pakistan
d
Department of Industrial Engineering School of Engineering, University of Management & Technology, C-2, Johar Town, 54770 Lahore, Pakistan

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: This paper focuses on the techno-economic feasibility of a grid-tied hybrid microgrid system for local
Received 18 September 2017 inhabitants of Kallar Kahar near Chakwal city of Punjab province in Pakistan and investigates the po-
Received in revised form tential for electricity generation through hybrid wind, photovoltaic and biomass system. The compre-
3 January 2018
hensive resource assessment of wind, biomass and solar energy is carried out for grid integration. Homer
Accepted 26 January 2018
Pro software is used to model a hybrid microgrid system. Optimization results and sensitivity analysis is
Available online 3 February 2018
carried out to ensure the robustness and cost-effectiveness of the proposed hybrid microgrid system. The
total load has been optimally shared among generated power through wind, photovoltaic and biomass
Keywords:
Hybrid power system
resources and surplus power is supplied to the national grid in case of low local demand of the load. The
Wind energy results of techno-economic feasibility study show that hybrid power system can generate more than
Photovoltaic system 50 MW. The cost of energy based on peak load demand profiles are considered for both residential and
Feasibility analysis commercial sectors. The cost of hybrid system for peak load of 73.6 MW is 180.2 million USD and lev-
Biomass energy elized cost of energy is 0.05744 $/kWh.
HOMER pro © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Techno-economic analysis

1. Introduction generation, especially for rural electrification of an underdeveloped


country such as Pakistan [3]. Due to intermittent nature and un-
Sustainable energy system has strong correlation with the so- predictable power output of standalone renewable energy re-
cioeconomic development of any country due to increasing popu- sources such as solar and wind power, a hybrid power generation is
lation, urbanization and industrialization. The developing countries more promising in terms of operational and life cycle costs, system
rely on fossil fuels to meet energy demand. From last two decades, sizing and maintenance requirements.
Pakistan is facing a very serious energy crisis which not only affects Various studies reported on the analysis and assessment of
the lives of the people but also a major obstacle in the development renewable energy integration for rural electrification around the
and progress of the country [1]. Although there are numerous globe [4e6]. Binayak B. et al. [7] proposed tri-hybrid renewable
measures being taken by government for putting additional ca- energy system comprised of PV, wind, and hydro systems intended
pacity into national power grid but the outcomes of these efforts to provide electricity for off-grid applications. Results show that the
yet have to be seen [2]. It is necessary to explore the renewable hybrid system is cost effective for remote areas where the grid
resources to keep up with current energy demand. Efficient, cost connectivity is either expensive or difficult. Alejandro del A. et al.
effective and reliable integration of renewable energy resources are [8] proposed an innovative urban roof-mounted energy system
promising alternatives to conventional fossil fuel based power constituted by a hybrid solar system for domestic applications. The
case study was conducted in Zaragoza, Spain and model has
reasonable agreement when compared with a residential apart-
* Corresponding author.
ment block having an electrical installed power of 4.14 kW and
E-mail address: jameel.ahmad@umt.edu.pk (J. Ahmad). 20.5 kW of thermal capacity. In another study, photovoltaic (PV)

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.01.133
0360-5442/© 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
J. Ahmad et al. / Energy 148 (2018) 208e234 209

system to combat the energy crisis and mitigate the greenhouse gas
Abbreviations emission in developing countries. The previous studies are focused
on the feasibility or resource assessment of renewable energy and
AEDB Alternative Energy Development Board, Pakistan hybrid energy systems. There are two main research questions
APTMA All Pakistan Textile Mills Association addressed in this study:
CSP Concentrated Solar power
DISCO Distribution Company Q1 If the wind-photovoltaic-biomass hybrid system for rural
ESMAP Energy Sector Management Assistance Program electrification in South Asian region especially for Pakistan, is
GIS Geographic Information System techno-economically viable and commercially applicable?
GST Geospatial Toolkit Q2 Can the proposed hybrid system provide a benchmark to
HOMER Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric other developing countries for potential integration?
Renewables
IESCO Islamabad Electric Supply Company The main objective of current study is to provide answers to the
IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency above questions taking case study of Kallar Kahar in Pakistan. To the
KIBOR Karachi Interbank Offer Rate best of our knowledge no case study has been published which
LOI Letter of Intent proposes a hybrid energy system consisting of wind-PV-biomass
MSW Municipal Solid Waste system for rural electrification in developing countries. Moreover,
NEPRA National Electric Power Regulatory Authority the comprehensive market review is carried out to find the suitable
NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory, USA and commercially viable technology for the hybrid energy inte-
NUST National University of Science and Technology gration. The hybrid energy system is flexible and can be used locally
PKR Pakistani Rupee both for purchase of electricity in case of high load demand and sell
PMD Pakistan Meteorological Department electricity when load demand is low.
SODAR Sonic Detection and Ranging The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 of the
SWERA Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment paper provides the assessment of solar, wind, and biomass resource
potential. Section 3 gives a detailed model of HOMER Pro simula-
tion, analysis, optimization and sensitivity analysis of a proposed
hybrid power system. Section 4 provides an implementation sce-
and biomass-based systems were investigated for different micro- nario of a megawatt scale hybrid power plant for the selected
grid configurations for small scale rural electrification [9]. This mix location near Kallar Kahar to implement a feasible power genera-
of PV and biomass can lead to levelized cost of energy reduction of tion scheme and its integration with national grid. Section 5 pro-
about 40% as compared to a system based on diesel generators. vides a comparison of current study with earlier work of similar
H. Borhanazad et al. [10] analyzed the wind speed, the solar nature and Section 6 concludes the paper.
radiation intensity and hydro power potential of different States in
Malaysia for electrification. M. Jibran et al. [11] presented the 2. Assessment of resource potential
standalone biomass energy resources. This study focuses on three
available resources, namely, livestock, bagasse and municipal solid Pakistan, one of the South Asian countries, is selected to perform
waste available in abundance in Pakistan. Results suggest that the case study for local renewable resource utilization and evaluate
biomass energy can contribute approximately 24% of the total the techno-economic feasibility of the proposed hybrid electrifi-
electric power generation from various other conventional sources. cation system. Pakistan has set a goal to add 5%, approximately
Perez-Navarro A. et al. [12] investigated a hybrid wind-biomass 10 GW electricity through renewable resources with replacing 10%
system with energy storage system and stand-by generators for fossil diesel with bio-diesel by the year 2025. Government of
reliable energy generation. The 40 MW wind park is stabilized and Pakistan has formulated a thorough policy for active participation
compensated by biomass power plant and the over sizing of its of private sector in the development of renewable energies. The
gasifier. This extra power could be used to compensate the vari- Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) has been estab-
ability in the wind power generation in 24 h generation cycle lished with support from Ministry of Water and Power, Govern-
assisting the grid operator. Moreover, integration of renewable ment of Pakistan to encourage and facilitate the implementation of
energy, sizing and optimization of hybrid energy systems, grid renewable energy projects in the country. AEDB and World Bank
configurations, system layout, and modeling approaches have been are now implementing a renewable energy resource assessment
discussed in review papers as well [13e18]. Recent studies in the and mapping activity covering major areas of Pakistan. The project
field of renewable energy integration are presented in Table 1. is mainly sponsored by World Bank's Energy Sector Management
It is of crucial importance to develop the sustainable energy Assistance Program (ESMAP) and efforts are targeted towards the

Table 1
Review of the hybrid energy systems case studies.

Ref. Renewable Energy Integration Remarks

[8] PV and Solar Thermal Urban roof-mounted energy system constituted by a hybrid solar system for domestic use
[19] PV, Wind Demand Response for component size optimization of a stand-alone micro-grid is investigated
[20] PV, batteries, Fuel Cells and Investigation of Fuel Cells based hybrid energy system with a photovoltaic system and an energy storage system
electrolyzers
[21] PV/Battery system/Fossil fuel base Comparative analysis and optimization of a hybrid energy system consisting of PV/Battery system, meeting a dynamic load profile,
engine and system hybridized with supplementary combustion-based prime movers such as Internal Combustion Engines (ICEs) or Micro
Gas Turbines is conducted
[22] PV, Solar Thermal, and Fossil fuel Performance Assessment of various designs of hybrid systems composed of solar thermal collectors, photovoltaic panels and
base engine natural gas internal combustion engines
[23] Nuclear, Coal Feasibility analysis of nuclearecoal hybrid energy systems from the perspective of low-carbon development
210 J. Ahmad et al. / Energy 148 (2018) 208e234

assessment of solar, wind and biomass potential, including on the Pakistan's map in Fig. 1.
geographic information system (G) analysis, ground-based data
collection and geospatial planning [24]. Pakistan is situated at
2.1. Solar energy potential
latitude of 23.45 Ne36.75 N and longitude of 61 E to 75.5 E.
Pakistan lies geographically in an area of immense solar radiation
Located in Southwestern Asia and being in Sun Belt, Pakistan has
available most of the time of the day, suitable for both solar thermal
great potential of solar energy. The average global horizontal ra-
and photovoltaic applications. Punjab and Baluchistan are the two
diations are estimated 200e250 Watt=m2 per day with 300 sun-
area-wise largest provinces that receive maximum solar radiation.
shine days and 1500e3000 sunshine hours in a year. Solar radiation
Baluchistan province is particularly rich in solar energy [25]. It has
map of Pakistan is shown in Fig. 2.
annual average clear day sunshine duration of 8e8.5 hours.
Kallar Kahar, a rural valley, is selected to study the hybrid
The annual direct normal solar radiation lies in the range be-
electrification system. There is no data available using ground
tween 5 and 5.5 kWh/m2/day in Southern Punjab, 7 to 7.5 kWh/m2/
measurement of solar radiation for the Kallar Kahar valley. But from
day in many parts of Baluchistan, between 6.5 and 7 kWh/m2/day
the NREL it has been found that the annual solar insolation over
in other parts of Baluchistan, and around 4.5 to 5 kWh/m2/day in
Kallar Kahar is 5.15 kWh/m2/day [34]. The solar potential of Kallar
rest of Pakistan. Pakistan is building its solar power plants in
Kahar in terms of global horizontal radiation and clearness index is
Punjab, Baluchistan, Sindh and Azad Kashmir. The program is under
shown in Table 2. The data has been collected from the Solar and
development support by China, the International Renewable En-
Wind Energy Resource Assessment (SWERA), Geospatial Toolkit for
ergy Agency (IRENA) and private sector of the country. Pakistan has
Pakistan, developed under the SWERA project [35]. The solar po-
also completed a 100 MW Quaid-e-Azam solar power plant in
tential of Kallar Kahar in terms of global horizontal radiation and
Bahawalpur region located in Punjab province and plans to extend
clearness index is shown in Table 2.
it to 1000 MW [26].
For rural environment the biogas, a product from biomass, is a
unique solution to cater for the energy demands in Pakistan as it is 2.2. Wind energy potential
decentralized, distributed and does not require any extra effort for
production of biogas. Biomass utilization in Pakistan is solely uti- According to NREL wind power class 3 and above are good for
lized for energy purposes [27]. Biomass resource mapping of the economic wind energy harvesting and installation of utility scale
country is another effort to support the sustainable expansion of wind turbines [36]. As shown in Table 3, wind power density and
electricity generation. This is accomplished by providing the federal speed are defined at 10 m and 50 m height. For economical wind
and provincial authorities in Pakistan, and commercial project de- power production, we need annual average wind speed of at least
velopers, with an improved understanding of the location and around 5 m/s to 6 m/s at the height of 10 m at the corresponding
potential of biomass resources. To achieve this goal, the World Bank site. In order to evaluate the wind resource of Kallar Kahar, PMD
has assigned a consulting consortium, including Full Advantage Co. [37] has conducted substantial studies for wind profiling using
Ltd. (Thailand) as a lead consultant, Simosol Oy (Finland), VTT Remtech PA-0 acoustic wind profiling SODAR (Sonic Detection and
Technical Research Center of Finland, and PITCO Private Limited Ranging).
(local consultant) to develop a Biomass Atlas for Pakistan with an SODAR was installed for wind data analysis during June 2009 in
initial focus on Punjab and Sindh provinces. NUST was given con- Sardhi village, 15 km towards south of Kallar Kahar near Motorway-
tract to conduct the field survey and data collection on crop 2 (usually called M  2), the main road connecting Rawalpindi and
biomass residues. The biomass resource mapping project consisted Lahore cities. SODAR has two main components; a data receiver and
of three phases: an antenna. It receives the echo of an acoustic pulse, which is
transmitted into the atmosphere vertically and at a small angle to
Phase 1: Project inception, team building, data source identifi- the vertical [38]. It works on the principle of Doppler shift, which is
cation and implementation planning. proportional to the wind speed while the echo intensity varies
Phase 2: Data collection/analysis and creation of draft biomass according to atmospheric turbulence and structure. SODAR beam is
resource maps. steered electronically into the atmosphere. It is capable of
Phase 3: Production and publication of a validated biomass measuring wind speed from altitude of 20 me200 m. Most modern
resource atlas. wind turbines now a day come with hub heights of 50 m and above

Biomass resource mapping phase is currently focusing on Pun-


jab and Sindh provinces. This will assess the overall potential of
various cities and develop technical reports about the feasible
competitive technologies that can be implemented to utilize
available biomass for energy production [28e30].
Pakistan has estimated wind power potential of 346 GW
approximately [31]. Wind resource assessment to identify the po-
tential areas for wind project deployment is inevitable. Pakistan's
public sector organizations including AEDB and Pakistan Meteo-
rological Department (PMD) along with National Renewable En-
ergy Laboratory (NREL) USA are three major sources involved for
wind energy promotion and their ongoing efforts are recently re-
ported in literature [32,33].
Kallar Kahar (32.7760 N, 72.7008 E) is one of the most beau-
tiful tourist places located 25 km away from the city of Chakwal of
Punjab province in Pakistan. It is about 125 km far from the city of
Rawalpindi. The site is adjacent to Islamabad-Lahore Motorway
(M  2) and easily accessible. The location of Kallar Kahar is marked Fig. 1. Location of Kallar Kahar on Google map of Pakistan.
J. Ahmad et al. / Energy 148 (2018) 208e234 211

Fig. 2. Solar radiation map of Pakistan.

Table 2 V0 ¼ reference wind speed at height H0


Monthly solar radiation at Kallar Kahar. V ¼ wind speed at height H
Month Clearness Index Daily Radiation (kWh/m2/day) a ¼ is a surface roughness factor usually varies between 0.1 and
January 0.601 3.281
0.4 [36].
February 0.605 4.095
March 0.579 4.935 For economic and viable wind power installation in any area,
April 0.606 6.137 renewable energy specialists usually consider wind power class 3
May 0.626 6.972
or higher. The wind resource map of Pakistan is shown in Fig. 3,
June 0.623 7.159
July 0.576 6.487 which clearly highlights those areas where wind power potential is
August 0.567 5.887 high. In this research work, acquired wind data from PMD is pro-
September 0.635 5.681 cessed in order to estimate the wind speed characteristics and
October 0.659 4.736 Weibull distribution parameters, scale and shape factors. As part of
November 0.636 3.622
wind resource assessment process, Fig. 6 shows the daily average
December 0.549 2.772
Annual Average 5.15 kWh/m2/day wind speeds at the heights of 20 m, 30 m, 50 m and 80 m hub
heights for the month of June-2009 recorded through SODAR in-
and wind speed at higher heights can be determined using strument. The corresponding average wind speeds are 6.41 m/s,
6.48 m/s, 6.66 m/s and 6.89 m/s respectively. Fig. 4 shows daily
average wind speeds, Fig. 5 shows the wind rose in the region and
 
V H a Fig. 6 shows the diurnal wind speed variations at Kallar Kahar for
¼ (01) June 2009.
V0 H0
Fig. 5 shows the wind rose highlighting wind direction of West
Where. and North-West directions based on the data of June 2009 collected

Table 3
Wind power classes [36].

Wind Power Class Resource Potential 10 m 50 m


2
Wind Power Density (W/m ) Speed (m/s) Wind Power Density (W/m2) Speed (m/s)

1 Poor 0e100 0e4.4 0e200 0e5.4


2 Marginal 100e150 4.4e5.1 200e300 5.4e6.2
3 Moderate 150e200 5.1e5.6 300e400 6.2e6.9
4 Good 200e250 5.6e6.0 400e500 6.9e7.4
5 Excellent 250e300 6.0e6.4 500e600 7.4e7.8
6 Excellent 300e400 6.4e7.0 600e800 7.8e8.6
7 Excellent >400 >7.0 >800 >8.6
212 J. Ahmad et al. / Energy 148 (2018) 208e234

Fig. 3. Wind resource map of Pakistan showing Kallar Kahar region.

at 50 m height. The average wind speed is approximately 6.66 m/s k ¼ Weibull Shape Parameter (Dimensionless)
[37]. c ¼ Weibull Scale Parameter (In unit of speed)
The Weibull probability density function (PDF) is very important
distribution as it closely fits with the real world probabilities of Usually, the shape parameter characterizes the symmetry of the
various wind speed regimes [39e41]. The site-specific parameters k distribution.
and c need to be estimated accurately. The Weibull PDF can be When k ¼ 2 the distribution reduces to Rayleigh distribution
computed using eq. (02) and is given by Ref. [42]: and if k ¼ 1 an exponential distribution is found. These are special
cased of Weibull distribution. Solving the equation, we find that the
  k1 "  # .
scale factor c is closely related to the average wind speed v for the
k V V k
fðVÞ ¼ exp  (02) site. The two Weibull parameters and the average wind speed are
c c c related by

Where.

V ¼ Wind Speed, m/s

Fig. 4. Daily average wind speed at different heights.


J. Ahmad et al. / Energy 148 (2018) 208e234 213

      
1 2 1 2
sX 2 ¼ G 1þ  G 1þ (07)
c2 k k

The data shown in Figs. 7e9 is used for estimating Weibull distri-
bution parameters [42]. Table 4 represents the Weibull parameters
of the site Kallar Kahar at different heights. It is seen from Table 4
that while the scale factor varies between 7.23 m/s and 7.64 m/s,
the shape factor varies from 2.29 to 2.64 for the location analyzed at
different hub heights. In general, the scale factor c shows how
“windy” a location is or, in other words, how high the annual mean
speed is. Scale factor is usually greater than average wind speed.
The scale factor shows that the site is good for wind turbine
installation. Since the scale factor c ¼ 7.64 m/s at hub height 80 m,
it gives an average wind speed close to c value.
The cumulative distribution function, FðVÞ for Weibull statistics
is therefore

 k # "
Fig. 5. Wind Rose at Kallar Kahar (50 m height during 01 month). V
FðVÞ ¼ probðv  VÞ ¼ 1  exp  (08)
c

 k #
"
  V
. 1 probðv  VÞ ¼ exp 
v ¼cG 1þ : (03) c
(09)
k

where, G . is complete Gamma function. Total number of hours can be estimated for feasible wind regime
by calculating probðVi  v  VF Þ and multiplying it by total hours
  i.e. 8760 h in a year. Annual energy estimate, E can be obtained by
.
3
v3 ¼ c3 G 1 þ (04)
k E ¼ 8760$probðVi  v  VF Þ$P ; kWh=yr (10)

The available power density, E in watts/m2 is obtained, where Vi and VF are cut-in wind speed and furling speed respec-
tively and P is power output from wind turbine. Obviously, the
  Weibull parameters c and k greatly affect the overall energy pro-
3
E ¼ f ðVÞc3 G 1 þ (05) duction from a given site. The effect of these factors on overall
k
optimization is shown in Sec 3.4 where a detailed sensitivity
If X  Weibullðk; cÞ., the mean, mX and variance, sX 2 of the analysis is carried out.
Weibull distribution are expressed in terms of the Gamma function NREL wind resource map also highlights wind potential in upper
[43]. Punjab region. An independent study was carried out by Mirza et al.
in Ref. [44] to validate the on-site data with NREL satellite mapping
  data. A suitable site was selected near Kallar Kahar and an Inter-
1 1
mX ¼ G 1 þ (06) national Electro-Technical Standard (IEC) mast was installed. Data
c2 k
was analyzed for about one and half year (Feb. 2010eJul 2011) by
using Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP)

Fig. 6. Kallar Kahar diurnal wind speed at different heights for June 2009.
214 J. Ahmad et al. / Energy 148 (2018) 208e234

Fig. 7. Wind frequency distribution.

3. Accurate description of anemometric conditions and data of 10-


min or hourly averages collected for e.g. each 3-h period
throughout the 24-h day.

In Ref. [44] wind speed data was measured for two years and
validated 10 min data subsets [44] were converted into an hourly
average data base using WAsP software. Average monthly wind
speeds and annual wind speed values were then calculated from
the software. Wind rose was developed for the wind direction data
received from the site. The complete data set of 2 years was
analyzed to conclude the results of the research. It is according to
the recommendations given in the literature, where emphasis is
Fig. 8. Percentage wind frequency distribution.
given to have minimum of 1 year of wind speed data for accurate
resource assessment [45e47]. The one-year data are usually suffi-
cient to determine diurnal and seasonal variations.
From Table 5 data, it is observed that at a height of 79 m, the
maximum monthly average wind speed is 4.72 m/s whereas at
height of 10 m, lowest monthly average wind speed is 3.41 m/s.
Interesting wind speed patterns were revealed when the data was
analyzed. For example, it is observed that wind speed is 6.19 m/s
during the May 2010, and 5.15 m/s observed during May 2011. The
accuracy of data can be increased by measuring annual wind
variability and cyclic patterns on long-term studies. Based on these
studies by NREL mapping and the authors of [44], our analysis
shows that the average wind speed of the area is between 5 m/s and
6 m/s which falls in the wind power classes 3 and 4 according to
Table 3 showing moderate to good wind power potential of the
Fig. 9. Kallar Kahar Weibull Distribution with 18 months of wind speed data. region.
It is proposed to use micro to small power rating wind turbines
of capacities between 500 kW and 1 MW for rural electrification
software. This data is shown in Table 5. WAsP recommends that and powering street lights which is very encouraging. There are
time-series of wind data or climatological (statistical) summaries around 50 villages connected to Kallar Kahar and its neighboring
may be obtained from synoptic stations, from stations established major cities of Chakwal and Talagang in the region. It is also rec-
for the collection of climatic data or from other sources. In the se- ommended that before planning any large-scale project in this area,
lection of wind data, a number of goals should be aimed at which micro-siting analysis must be completed for the economic viability.
can be summarized as follows: From Table 4, it is clear that average wind speed for Kallar Kahar
is 6.66 m/s. Wind power determined from average wind speed is
1. Sufficient time period. At least one year, but preferably several not a true indicator. In real world, the wind speed varies consid-
(whole) years. erably at different times of the year. Actual wind power density can
2. Well exposed anemometer, far from buildings and other ob- range from 1.0 to 3 times greater than that calculated at most sites.
stacles. This requirement is often the most difficult to satisfy. From this data, power density can be accurately estimated if we can
find optimal wind speed. Lu et al. [48] has given a mathematical

Table 4
Kallar Kahar parameters at different heights.

Sr. No. Hub Height (m) Average Wind Speed (m/s) k c (m/s) Power Density (W/m2)

1 20 6.41 2.29 7.23 312.4


2 30 6.48 2.38 7.31 306.0
3 50 6.66 2.44 7.53 323.7
4 80 6.89 2.64 7.64 307.4
J. Ahmad et al. / Energy 148 (2018) 208e234 215

Table 5
Monthly mean wind speed for two years at Kallar Kahar at different heights [44].

Year & Month Mean Wind Speed at 79 m Mean Wind Speed at 60 m Mean Wind Speed at 50 m Mean Wind Speed at 30 m Mean Wind Speed at 10 m

2010 Feb 5.7266 5.4334 5.2916 4.8477 4.0529


2010 Mar 5.3072 5.0966 5.0157 4.6345 3.8177
2010 Apr 6.1217 5.8354 5.7249 5.2699 4.5138
2010 May 6.1992 5.9001 5.7993 5.3528 4.5604
2010 Jun 5.4646 5.178 5.1035 4.6942 4.0148
2010 Jul 4.6501 4.4431 4.3984 4.0863 3.4285
2010 Aug 3.4575 3.2555 3.219 2.8823 2.3892
2010 Sep 3.7653 3.4929 3.4123 3.1275 2.5389
2010 Oct 3.9335 3.702 3.6553 3.3872 2.6849
2010 Nov 3.8447 3.7212 3.7021 3.4904 2.8952
2010 Dec 4.2256 4.1206 4.0398 3.7834 3.1147
2011 Jan 5.6441 5.4067 5.4496 5.0733 4.1691
2011 Feb 5.303 5.0775 5.0067 4.6241 3.7438
2011 Mar 4.942 4.7608 4.6973 4.3744 3.6397
2011 Apr 5.5838 5.3453 5.1999 4.76 3.9748
2011 May 5.1579 4.9849 4.9037 4.4529 3.7762
2011 Jun 4.8966 4.6638 4.6161 4.2356 3.601
2011 Jul 3.8857 3.751 3.6332 3.33 2.8382
All data 4.8955 4.6755 4.6048 4.2462 3.5417
Mean of the monthly Means 4.7192 4.5054 4.4453 4.1047 3.4078

model for optimal wind speed based on k and c factors for Weibull 2.3. Biomass energy potential
distribution.
Pakistan is an agro-livestock country. Due to this, it has huge
biomass potential in the form of cow and buffalo dung, poultry
 1=k litter, sugarcane bagasse, wood and crops [50]. The province Punjab
kþ2
Vopt ¼ c m=s (11) has enormous biomass potential accessible in the form of solid
k
municipal waste from rice, wheat, wood and cotton with some of it
is the optimal wind speed that captures maximum power. After as shown in Fig. 10. There is almost a total of 159 million animals
Vopt . is determined, turbine is selected based on the highest ca- whose dung can be easily used for the purpose of producing biogas
pacity factor CP which is the ratio of actual power generated to the in countryside environment.
rated power. Specific wind power (power per unit area) is usually There are 35.2 million cattle and buffalo. If we assume 5 kg/day
expressed as [49]. manure from each animal, then it can be accounted for about 175
million kg of dung on daily basis. If the collection rate of feces is
assumed to be 50%, then a total of 176 million kg of dung can be
1  used for biogas production.
 P=A ¼ r Vopt 3  Cp (12) According to a survey, the wet mass of 20 kg of manure can be
2
used for the production of 1 m3 biogas. Therefore, a total of 8.8
Where r ¼ 1:225 kg=m3 is air density at standard temperature and million m3 biogas can be produced daily which can be utilized for
altitude above sea level, P ¼ power in Watt, A ¼ swept area of the cooking, lighting and electricity generation [51]. Approximately 112
rotor blade (m2), V ¼ wind speed (m/s) and Cp is often called Betz million people belong to rural areas and biogas can meet their
limit. From Eq. (12) it is clear that actual power produced depends energy needs in a better way. Biogas incentives were given to
upon air density, hub height, length of rotor blade, capacity factor people living in rural areas by National Rural Support Program
and wind speed, following a cube of wind speed power law. (NRSP) [52] and since 1974, over 1700 biogas plants have been
Usually specific power is a good indicator for comparative se- installed under a country wide plan funded by the Government of
lection of wind turbines for a particular site under consideration. Pakistan. Some of these schemes are shown in Fig. 11.
Modern day wind turbines come up with the hub height of around Major objectives of this program are to minimize the reliance on
50 m or more. The numerical values of power density are tabulated wood for food preparation. 51% biogas power plants have been
in Table 4. From Table 5, it is clear that spring and summer seasons installed and functioning in various cities of Pakistan like Rahim Yar
are best times of the year for exploiting the wind power when wind Khan, Rawalpindi, and Khushab in Punjab province by NRSP. 10.34
speed varies from 4.9 m/s to 6.2 m/s. By suitably selecting capacity million tons per year waste is available through various crops from
factor for certain areas of Kallar Kahar, wind turbines can be eight different district of Punjab province. According to existing
installed from different manufacturers such as General Electric, thermal energy estimates of biomass, it is approximately equivalent
Nordex, EWT, Swiss Electric, Enercon and Vestas. From the above to 28,304 billion kilo calories. With 22% plant efficiency, approxi-
analysis, it is obvious that at 20 m, average wind speed was 6.41 m/s mately 980 MW nominal capacity power plants can be installed. As
during the period. Average wind speed at 80 m height was recorded stated in one of the study of GIZ Energy Program in association with
as 6.89 m/s. Analysis of diurnal wind speed variation depicts that the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA), biomass
maximum wind speed is available during late night time resource accessibility as industrialized energy, was evaluated in
throughout the whole month. The wind frequency distribution at eight districts together with Jhang, Faisalabad, Toba Tek Singh,
20 m, 30 m, 50 m and 80 m depicts that during 65%, 67%, 70% and Okara, Borewala, Chiniot and Sahiwal for the pilot project. Biomass
74% of the time, wind speed is above 5 m/s respectively. The total pre-conditioning techniques, their cost of conversion, raw material
power density for Kallar Kahar at 50 m height is 323.7 W/m2. These planning and management, usage and storage before its deploy-
numbers suggest that Kallar Kahar is a potential site for installing ment to the power station site, transportation and labor
wind turbine technologies.
216 J. Ahmad et al. / Energy 148 (2018) 208e234

Fig. 10. Various types of Biomass sources in Pakistan.

Fig. 11. Biogas Utilization in province Punjab.

involvement including farmers were evaluated. The techno- applicable Pakistan environmental protection standards. Liquid and
economic evaluation for suitable options of biomass utilization solid wastes produced by the plant will be disposed off safely in an
for power generation was also addressed in the study. environmentally safe manner. The plant will have the flexibility to
Lumen Energia (Pvt.) Ltd. is currently developing the LE Biomass burn various agricultural crop residues available within the 25 to
Power Project. The proposed project is being implemented in dis- 40 km radius of the plant. The biomass fuel could be wheat stalk &
trict Jhang (31.2601 N, 72.3193 E) which falls within Faisalabad husk, cotton stalk, rice husk, sugarcane trash, bagasse, corn stalk,
Electric Supply Company (FESCO) distribution network. Therefore, pulses stalk, wood chip, etc.
the power off-taker will be FESCO through interconnection with Lumen Energia has initiated development work for its second
Jhang-II zone 11 kV Grid Station. LE Jhang Biomass Power Project 12 MW (gross ISO) biomass fueled power plant to be located in
will be conventional steam power plant with boiler, turbine, District Okara, within the territory administered by Lahore Electric
generator and associated auxiliaries. The plant size of 12 MW has Supply Company (LESCO), in the province of Punjab. The net
been selected while optimizing biomass fuel availability, cost of fuel dependable capacity of the power plant will be approximately
and standardized equipment availability. The proposed project [53] 10.50 MW after auxiliary load. The biomass fuel will mostly consist
with locations as shown in Table 6, is designed and will be operated of sugarcane residue, wheat chaff, rice husk, cotton stalk, bagasse,
in an environment friendly manner, and will comply with all and others seasonally available crop residues. Table 6, Table 7 and
Table 8 are showing available material of biomass for power (en-
ergy) conversion in all chosen territories according to [53]:
Table 6 Kallar Kahar and Chakwal are situated at a distance of approx-
Lumen energia biomass projects in Punjab [54]. imately 25.9 km from each other. The map of Kallar Kahar and its
Generator name Lumen Energia (pvt.) Ltd. neighboring areas is shown in Fig. 12. The total area of district
Chakwal consists of 1652443 acres of land. Total population of
Location Districts Nankana, Okara and Jhang in province of Punjab
Technology Conventional steam power cycle Chakwal is 1059451 according to 1998 census, 87.7%% of the total
Installed capacity 12.00 MW (gross capacity) in each city population resides in villages while only 12.3% in the urban areas.
Fuel Multiple agricultural residues There are more than 50 villages located in this area carrying huge
J. Ahmad et al. / Energy 148 (2018) 208e234 217

Table 7
Biomass estimate of different districts in Punjab [53].

District Total Biomass Availability (Tons/Year) Total Biomass available for Energy (tons/Year)

Jhang 1,801,712 846,9421


Faisalabad 5,153,600 2,613,424
Chiniot 2,485,760 652,137
Sahiwal 1,769,123 1,355,794
Okara 3,342,088 2,138,963
Toba Tek Singh 2,662,228 1,786,526
Nankana Sahib 1,801,712 944,942

Table 8
Parameters of Biomass Crops collected in 2013 [55].

Crop Crop Yield (millions of Biomass Resource Heating Value (KCal/ Biomass Quantity (millions of Ash Content Total Available Energy (Billion
tons) Type Kg) tons) (%) Cal)

Sugarcane 42.21 Bagasse 2143


Sugarcane tops 2062 0.59 1.6%
Leaves or Sheath 2678 1.22 1.9%
Maize Spring 1.949 Corn Cob 3464 0.46 2.5% 3311
Maize Shells 2765 0.065 1.23%
Autumn Stalk 2985 2.29 7.7%
Cotton 1.67 Stalk 3569 1.02 4.7% 3342
Rice 18.38 Rice Straw 3056 1.38 9.8%
Rice Husk 3200 0.092 19.2% 2034
Wheat 7.58 Wheat Straw 4100 3.23 8% 17,474

Fig. 12. Kallar Kahar and its neighboring villages.

biomass potential. Some of the villages are identified as shown in is dynamically moving towards the gardening with reserves into
Fig. 12. Chakwal's land is mostly mountainous, enclosed with scrub livestock and cultivation. One of the prominent diary groups from
wooded area in the southwest, and flat plains interspaced with district Chakwal under the title of Yousaf dairies is being estab-
dried up rocky portions in the north and northeast. The most lished which will be generating organic dairy foods from 6000
important occupation of majority of the people is crop growing. animals. From the farming point of view, approximately 15000
Transport and hence trade is also significant. Currently district acres of land is used for wheat, oranges, peanuts and olives [56].
Chakwal has 3 subdivisions - Chakwal, Talagang and Choa Saidan Cost-effective green energy is necessary for electricity pro-
Shah, along one subdivision of Kallar Kahar. ducers. Traditional fuels release air pollutants in the form of CO2,
Agriculture is the core profession of the people belonging to NO2, SO2 and CO [57]. These hazardous gases cause reduction of
Chakwal. 786212 acres are being used for cultivation. The foremost oxygen, depletion of ozone layer, acidic rain, skin and lungs in-
crops of this territory are: groundnut, wheat, oil seeds, maize, fruit fections. One of the most important aspects in evaluating the
orchards, grams, lentils and vegetables. Wheat has been the main viability of a Biogas-to-Energy project is the assessment of the
crop grown in this region for both commercial and personal pur- waste and waste water in the location of the project. The compo-
poses. Peanut is a popular product of Chakwal area. Chakwal also sition and availability of manure is very essential in estimating the
entered in the field of dairy farming a few years ago. Chakwal Group biogas production. The basic working mechanism of biogas is
218 J. Ahmad et al. / Energy 148 (2018) 208e234

Fig. 13. Methane gas production from anaerobic digestion process.

shown in Fig. 13. Biogas is produced through methane which pro- The gorgeous mountainous prairies and agricultural land of
duces microorganisms that digest the cellulose and other organic Chakwal offers a very worthy location for sheep and cattle
matter in animals and plants wastes which occur at the suitable nurturing. Mostly, farmers keep their personal sheep, goat flocks
temperatures of 28e30  C or 50e70  C. Biogas produced after and cattle. However, a number of poultry and cattle farms have
anaerobic digestion contains 50e70% methane (CH4) and 30e50% been made in the remote sector, which employ modern technology
CO2. Slight traces of O2 and N2 are also present in biogas. Small of breeding and rearing. To assist farming, twelve veterinary hos-
amounts of Hydrogen Sulphide (H2S) moisture, siloxanes are also pitals and twenty-six veterinary dispensaries have been estab-
present. The gases like methane, carbon monoxide and hydrogen lished in the district by the Department of Livestock and Dairy
can be reacted to burn with oxygen. In this way, biogas releases Development. To meet the energy demand, dung could be used to
energy which can be used as a fuel. It has the mean calorific value of produce energy using animal waste through Biogas. If we assume
about 20 MJ/m3. It can also be used in the anaerobic digesters to 8 kg dung per day from each animal, then there will be 4646.2 tons
convert heat energy into electricity by the use of gas engines. Biogas (4,646,200 kg) manure on daily basis. Half of the available dung
is a form of biofuel, which is originated through biological (2323 ton), as shown in Table 9, could be used to fulfill electricity
processes. needs of that particular territory. The misty quantity of 20 kg of
The average yield of Biogas in m3 per m3 capacity of digester for feces can be used for the generation of 1 m3 biogas. 116150 m3
a small 6 m3 digester in tropical Indian conditions has been esti- biogas could be produced using above mentioned data on daily
mated to be 0.35 m3 at STP for a daily slurry feed of 100 kg (50% wet basis. Calorific value of Biogas is 20 MJ per m3, which produces
dung þ 50% water) by Pal et al. in their 1986 study in Lucknow in 2323 GJ energy from 2323 tons of wet dung. This number shows
India [58]. Here it is important to sort out and quantify how much that an annual average of 2323 ton/day of biomass is available in
cattle is needed for this amount of slurry. It is essential to know that selected location. Average price to purchase this biomass is taken as
is it feasible as an alternative solution for such amount of feed the 30 $/ton.
digester on the daily basis or not? Secondly, it is also essential to
calculate that how many people will be able to benefit from energy
gained from the digester to produce enough biogas for basic energy 3. HOMER pro modeling
needs and electricity solutions. The approximate dung produced by
cattle is 5.5 kg/day from which more than 60% is recoverable and HOMER Pro software [62] is used for modeling and analyzing
can be used for the biogas production [59]. The number of cows hybrid power systems, which consists of a mix of conventional
available depends on the fertility of the feeding lands and also the generators, wind turbines, solar photovoltaic, hydropower, batte-
economic situation of the farmers in the villages. We can make a ries, fuel cells, biomass and other sources of energy. HOMER Pro has
rough guess to be 2 to 3 cows per household as suggested by some been used in this research paper to find out technically the best
studies [60]. Biogas could be produced using various waste mate- viable renewable energy solution. Kallar Kahar holds a good po-
rials. Dung has been used with the help of gasifier to produce biogas tential of solar, wind energy and biomass energy resources. But till
for electricity generation. Biogas will burn to generate thermal now there has been no serious efforts to use these resources to
energy. There are three options for any thermal power plant for benefit the local community.
power production: Steam turbine power plant (Rankine Cycle), gas Energy sale, generation and demand forecast for district
turbine (Brayton cycle) and Combined Cycle Power plant (CCPP). On Chakwal is shown in Table 10 for different years. For this research,
the basis of capital cost and other parameters, steam turbine is we have collected peak load demand data from IESCO for district of
most feasible option for Biomass [61]. Using steam turbine with all Chakwal and its connected cities and villages. The site selected for
other required devices, overall net efficiency of this plant will be hybrid power plant installation is Kalllar Kahar which comes under
around 28e33%, gas turbine plant 24e30% while CCPP has 38e46% the jurisdiction of district Chakwal. The expected peak demand for
net efficiency. Biogas plant schematic diagram for electricity gen- grid station #22 for district Chakwal is 73.6 MW for the year
eration is shown in Fig. 14. Kallar Kahar, district Chakwal retains 2016e2017 as shown in Table 11 [63]. As people in rural areas spend
remarkable potential for generating green energy from biomass. most of their time in the farms, therefore load in the morning time
Fig. 15 shows a snapshot of cattle market in Chakwal. becomes much smaller. The peak load occurs between 6:00 p.m. to
9:00 p.m. as shown in Fig. 16. The peak demand also varies from
J. Ahmad et al. / Energy 148 (2018) 208e234 219

Fig. 14. Biogas plant schematic for electricity generation.

Fig. 15. Cattle market in Chakwal.

Table 9
Available Biomass requirement on monthly basis.

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Available Biomass (ton/day) 2,323 2,323 2,323 2,323 2,323 2,323 2,323 2,323 2,323 2,323 2,323 2,323

Table 10
Energy sale, generation and demand for district Chakwal [63].

Year Energy Sale (GWh) Distribution Losses(GWh) Transmission Losses (GWh) Generation (GWh) % Load factor Peak Demand (MW)

2016e17 1961 114 35 2109 50 485


2017e18 2050 122 36 2208 50 509
2023e24 2630 176 45 2851 49 666

Table 11 season to season as shown in Figs. 16 and 17 for residential as well


Electricity demand of Chakwal [63]. as commercial load.
DISCO IESCO

Grid# 3
Grid No 22
KV 132
3.1. Solar resource
Grid name Chakwal
Total MVA 122 Fig. 18 shows solar data that is input to HOMER Pro. The site
Maximum Demand of Substation (MW) 73.6 longitude and latitude are given below.
2016-17
Latitude: 32 49 min North.
Maximum Demand of Substation (MW) 99.04
2023-24 Longitude: 72 52 min East.
Time zone: GMT þ5:00.
220 J. Ahmad et al. / Energy 148 (2018) 208e234

Table 12 3.2. Wind resource


Wind resource input to HOMER pro.

Weibull parameter, k 2 Wind speed profile for Kalalr Kahar region is shown in Fig. 19
Autocorrelation factor 0.85 and associated parameters are given in Table 12.
Diurnal pattern strength 0.25
Hour of peak wind speed 15
Scaled annual average 7.22 m/s 3.3. Biomass resource
Anemometer height 50 m
Altitude above sea level 457 m
Kallar Kahar, district Chakwal retains remarkable potential for
Wind shear profile Logarithmic
generating green energy from biomass. According to census of

Fig. 16. Residential load profile per residential unit.

Fig. 17. Commercial load profile.

Fig. 18. Solar data input to HOMER Pro.


J. Ahmad et al. / Energy 148 (2018) 208e234 221

Fig. 19. Monthly wind speed profile.

1998, district Chakwal has total population of 1,083,725, 87.8% be- notification [64]. According to the data given in IRENA 2014 report
longs to rural areas having agriculture as major occupation. Ac- the projected cost for a wind power project is 950e1250 USD/kW
cording to livestock census 2006 in province Punjab, Pakistan, the [56]. However, in view of the international capital cost of wind
situation is shown in Fig. 20. The number of cows and goats are onshore projects and the local factors for a developing country like
dominating compared to buffalo and sheep. On average every home Pakistan, AEDB submitted that it is of the view that the Authority
has two to three cows and four to five goats. The primary objective may consider the project cost between USD 2e2.2 million per MW
is to get milk for the family. Dairy farms for commercial use are also for new upfront tariff for wind projects. As per NEPRA approved
increasing. So there is a huge potential for raw biomass in the form cost of a wind project is 1.97 million $/MW [64]. As per NEPRA
of manure. approved cost of a solar project is 1.167 million$/MW [63]. For
Using required dung (~2323 ton/day) collected from villages, it biomass case, one Kg of cattle dung can produce 0.6e0.8 m3 of
could be used to fulfill electricity needs of that particular territory. biogas [65] and one m3 can produce 2.5 kWh energy [66,67]. En-
Fig. 21 shows the monthly need of Biomass resource. ergy per Kg of cattle from dung ¼ 0.6  2.5 ¼ 1.5 kWh. The average
Complete hybrid system is shown in Fig. 22. As output of PV cost of dung is in between 8 and 10 PKR per kg, so cost is 6.66 PKR/
panels is DC so PV arrays are connected to DC bus. The output of kWh and 6666 PKR/MWh or 63.4USD/MWh. Approved biomass
wind turbines and Biogas generator are AC so they are connected to project cost is taken as 0.9966 million$ per MW. As the financing is
the AC bus and the load is connected to AC bus. The AC and DC links local, so discount rate is considered as KIBOR offer rate of 3 months
are interconnected with the help of DC-AC inverter. This system plus spread of 300 bases points. Current value of KIBOR is 6.02 and
assumed to have 25 years of lifetime. Specifications of different therefore 9.02% per year [68]. Currency exchange rate considered is
components of a hybrid wind-PV-Biomass with their associated 1US$ ¼ 105 PKR. Generated electricity will be purchased by NEPRA
costs are given as in Table 13. NEPRA, a regulatory body, determined @ 13.09336 PKR/kWh. As per rationalized system
the upfront tariff for solar PV power plants for project size of 20 MW:15 MW:15 MW ¼ Biogas: Solar: Wind, the applicable tariff
1 MWe100 MW vide its decision dated January 22, 2015. The Au- will be around Biomass @ 11.7396 PKR/kWh, Solar @ 14.7634 PKR/
thority determined levelized tariff within the range of US kWh, Wind @ 13.2283 PKR/kWh. Table 13 shows the cost estimate
Cents14.15/kWh to US Cents 15.02/kWh for three sizes of the of PV, Wind and Biogas power plants for selected plant capacities.
project: 1 MWe20 MW, greater than 20 MW but less than 50 MW Table 14 shows the corresponding biomass resource specifications
and greater than 50 MW but less than 100 MW. The validity period used for simulation.
for opting the upfront tariff was six months from the date of noti-
fication i.e. 5th March 2015. The overall cost of a solar project
3.4. Optimization and sensitivity analysis
(covering module cost, inverters, civil works, land cost, insurance
etc.) is therefore taken as 1.1 Million USD/MW from NEPRA
HOMER Pro software is now used to optimize the hybrid system

Fig. 20. Livestock population in district Chakwal.


222 J. Ahmad et al. / Energy 148 (2018) 208e234

Fig. 21. Biomass resource input to HOMER Pro.

Table 14
Biomass resource input to HOMER Pro.

Parameter Value

Scaled annual average 2323 ton/day


Average price 30 $/ton
Carbon content 7%
Gasification ratio 0.7 kg gas/kg biomass
LHV of biogas 5.5 MJ/kg

Table 15
Hybrid system architecture.

Parameter Characteristics Value

PV Panel Rated Capacity Canadian Solar DYMOND CS6X-315 15,000 kW


No. of Wind Turbines Wind flow 45e500 (500 kW) 30 Ea.
Biogas Generator Power Biogas Generator 20,000 kW
Converter Power Leonics GTP519S 900 kW 700Vdc 15,000 kW
Grid Power Grid 999,999 kW
Dispatch Strategy HOMER Cycle Charging

Fig. 22. HOMER Pro model of proposed hybrid system.

turbine hub height variation causes variation in average wind


speed and that affects Weibull parameters k and c as mentioned in
for optimal values of system decision variables. There are many
Table 4 in Section 2.2. For HOMER dispatch methods CC and LF, a
options for system configuration such as PV-Grid, Wind-Grid, PV-
total of 64 solutions were simulated to see the effect of Weibull
Wind-Grid, PV-Biomass-Grid and PV-Wind-Biomass-Grid. During
parameters on cost of energy (COE). Results given in Table 16 show
optimization process the size of PV array, number of wind turbines,
that cost of energy component varies due to variation in k and c
size of biogas generator and daily biomass requirement, size of DC-
during optimization process and also affects renewable energy
AC converter, dispatch strategy load following (LF) or cycle char-
fraction. By looking at Table 16, it is clear that by increasing the
ging(CC)) [69] are entered into HOMER Pro software such that
value of Weibull shape parameter k, the COE and NPC reduced.
desired power demand is met with reduced system cost and lower
There is no notable variation due to the variation of dispatch
cost of energy (COE) per kWh (e.g. $/kWh). The complete hybrid
method. Therefore, any method can be used as the system doesn't
system was modeled in HOMER Pro as shown in Fig. 22. Table 15
contain any storage facility.
provides detail of system architecture for various plant capacities.
Simulation results are shown in Table 16.
For sensitivity analysis, variations are made in hub height for CC 3.5. Additional variables for sensitivity analysis
and LF dispatch methods. Hub heights of 20 m, 30 m, 50 m, and
80 m are used in sensitivity analysis with different values of k. Wind In addition to the inputs defined in Table 16, more sensitivity

Table 13
Cost estimate of 50 MW PV-Wind-Biomass hybrid power system [64].

System Name Capacity Plant Cost Rate (In Capital Cost (In Fuel Cost (In O&M Cost (PKR /MW) Insurance Cost (PKR/MW) Net O&M (per Year)
Millions) Millions) Thousands)

(MW) US$/MW PKR/MW US$ PKR US$ /MW PKR /MW US$ /MW PKR /MW

Biomass 20 0.997 104.64 19.93 2092.86 63.46 6666.00 439.10 220.40 55,021.14 5,777,220
Solar PV 15 0.978 102.68 14.66 1540.24 NIL NIL 2,786,805 1,008,000.00 36,141.00 3,794,805
Wind 15 1.970 206.85 29.55 3102.75 NIL NIL 1503.90 634.900 20.370 2139
J. Ahmad et al. / Energy 148 (2018) 208e234 223

Table 16
Optimization results corresponding to sensitivity values.

Rank Height k System Architecture COE NPC Ren. Fraction Bio Production PV Production Wind Production
(m) ($/KWh) ($M) (%) (MWh) (MWh/yr) (MWh/yr)
PV Wind Bio Grid Dispatch
Method

(kW) (kW) (kW) (kW) e

1 80 2.64 15000 15000 20000 99999 CC 0.0525 166.35 87.78 156,680 23,285 48,627
4 50 2.44 15000 15000 20000 99999 CC 0.0559 174.51 86.79 156,680 23,285 42,560
6 80 2.64 e 15000 20000 99999 CC 0.0572 173.84 82.58 156,680 e 48,627
8 30 2.38 15000 15000 20000 99999 CC 0.0596 183.07 85.69 156,680 23,285 36,188
10 50 2.44 e 15000 20000 99999 CC 0.0607 182.00 81.26 156,680 e 42,560
12 20 2.29 15000 15000 20000 99999 CC 0.0625 189.51 84.80 156,680 23,285 31,397
14 30 2.38 e 15000 20000 99999 CC 0.0645 190.56 79.78 156,680 e 36,188
19 20 2.29 15000 e 20000 99999 CC 0.0673 189.91 77.51 156,680 23,285 e
20 30 2.38 15000 e 20000 99999 CC 0.0673 189.91 77.51 156,680 23,285 e
21 50 2.44 15000 e 20000 99999 CC 0.0673 189.91 77.51 156,680 23,285 e
22 80 2.64 15000 e 20000 99999 CC 0.0673 189.91 77.51 156,680 23,285 e
24 20 2.29 e 15000 20000 99999 CC 0.0674 197.00 78.60 156,680 e 31,397
29 20 2.29 e e 20000 99999 CC 0.0713 197.40 69.20 156,680 e e
30 30 2.38 e e 20000 99999 CC 0.0713 197.40 69.20 156,680 e e
31 50 2.44 e e 20000 99999 CC 0.0713 197.40 69.20 156,680 e e
32 80 2.64 e e 20000 99999 CC 0.0713 197.40 69.20 156,680 e e

variables are defined in Table 17. Inverter efficiency is assumed to be costs), any other costs such as legal fees, etc. If number of options
90%. Nominal discount rate was taken as 9.02% with 3.60% inflation are being considered, then the option with the lowest NPC will be
rate. Expected project life was assumed to be 20 years. Ground the most favorable financial option. As in this case, the lowest cost
reflectance for PV system is taken as 20% and nominal cell oper- value is taken into account from sensitivity analysis. After sensi-
ating temperature (NOCT) is taken as 45 Celsius. A 75% derating tivity analysis, COE is calculated by Homer Pro. The reason behind
factor is considered for PV system. Biomass prices are varied from the low cost is excess electricity of 2.7 GWH/year that is sold out to
28 $/ton to 32 $/ton. Wind turbines with hub heights from 20 m to the grid @ 0.05744$/kWh. The emission is in negative side as overall
80 m are used as inputs to HOMER Pro. CanadianSolar PV modules renewable penetration is 87.7%. Wind power plant capacity factor is
CS6X-315 capital cost multipliers are varied from 0.6 to 1. A total of 23.9% with total power production of 31.396 GWH/yr. levelized cost
38,628 solutions were simulated. 23668 solutions were found of energy 0.109 $/kWh with total 6857 annual operational hours.
feasible. 9360 were infeasible due to minimum 10% capacity Wind power system peak output power is 14400 kW which is close
shortage constraint and remaining 5600 were infeasible due to the to its rated capacity of 15000 kW.
minimum renewable fraction. Effect of sensitivity variables on COE Solar PV plant capacity factor is 15.9% and it penetration is 22%
and NPC are shown in Table 18. Not all results are shown. Cost with annual power production of 41.5 GWh. LCOE for PV system is
summary for a subset of sensitivity variables is shown in Table 19. 0.054 $/kWh. Biogas generator gives 156.6 GWh/yr. with 66%
COE varies between 0.053$/kWh and 0.0609 $/kWh and NPC varies penetration with mean electrical output of 20000 kW. Biogas
from $164 million to $195 million. Since the prices for biomass and generator capacity factor is 89.4% with 17.1% efficient system. Grid
PV panels are more dynamic than wind turbine costs, capital cost purchases are 31.5 GHW/yr. with 12.5% penetration. Total power
multipliers are used as sensitivity variables. HOMER Pro displays production from hybrid system is 257.12 GWh/yr. with AC primary
sensitivity results both in graphical and tabular format. Fig. 23 (a, b) load of 189 GHW/yr. The pay back is calculated on the bases of
shows two sensitivity graphs with NPC and COE superimposed. A already approved upfront cost, as the ratio is 20:15:15 for Biomass:
surface plot is also shown in Fig. 23ðcÞ. HOMER Pro has optimized wind: PV respectively, so same ratio is used. Levelized energy cost is
two best configurations i.e. PV-Biomass-Grid and PV-Biomass- calculated by Homer Pro itself, it does include all four (PV-Wind-Bio
Wind-Grid as shown in Table 20. In the first case the optimized and Grid). Fig. 24 gives detail of monthly average electricity pro-
COE is 0.0614 $/kWh and NPC is $178 million. In the second case duction. Table 21 gives detail of NPC and Fig. 25 gives detail sum-
COE converged to 0.0574 $/kWh and NPC is $180 million. mary of nominal cash flow in USD for a period of 20 years.
Renewable energy fraction for each source is provided in Table 22.
The optimal hybrid renewable energy system would save
3.6. Post-homer economic analysis 19,976.607 kg/yr. of CO2 over one year in operation compared to a
centralized power generation plant or an off-grid distributed gen-
Homer Pro gives net present cost (NPC) value which if positive eration system. In addition, other gaseous emission of particulate
means a feasible system. NPC is defined as a summation of all costs: matter, unburned hydro carbon, Nitrogen oxide, Sulfur dioxide and
capital investment, non-fuel operation and maintenance costs, Carbon mono oxide will be reduced due to reliance on renewable
replacement costs, energy costs (fuel cost plus any associated energy system (see Table 23). Monthly grid energy purchased and
sold is shown in Table 24. From techno-economic perspective, the
system is viable and can be implemented.
Table 17
List of sensitivity variables.

Sensitivity Variable Values 4. Implementation: technical aspects


CS6X-315 Capital Cost Multiplier 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 1
WF45 Hub Height (m) 20, 30, 50, 80 It seems also intuitive that the distributed generation approach
Solar Scaled Average (kWh/m2/day) 5, 5.05, 5.25 under the form of medium and micro-generation renewable energy
Biomass Price ($/ton) 28, 29.7, 30, 32
spread over a wide geographic area will bring considerable
224 J. Ahmad et al. / Energy 148 (2018) 208e234

Table 18
Effect of sensitivity variables on COE and NPC.

Sensitivity Variables System Architecture Effect on Cost

CS6X-315 Capital Cost WF45 Hub Height Solar Scaled Average (kWh/ Biomass Price CS6X-315 No of Bio Grid BDI 3P COE NPC ($)
Multiplier (m) m2/day) ($/ton) (kW) WF45 (kW) (kW) (kW) ($/kWh)

0.6 30 5.05 28 29677.31955 35 20000 999999 15000 0.05357736 1.74Eþ08


0.6 50 5.05 28 29677.31955 35 20000 999999 15000 0.04968221 1.64Eþ08
0.7 30 5.05 28 28000.43194 34 20000 999999 15000 0.05483421 1.77Eþ08
0.7 50 5.05 28 28000.43194 34 20000 999999 15000 0.05101006 1.67Eþ08
0.8 30 5.05 28 25922.94594 34 20000 999999 15000 0.05592101 1.79Eþ08
0.8 50 5.05 28 25922.94594 34 20000 999999 15000 0.052067 1.70Eþ08
0.9 30 5 28 25922.94594 34 20000 999999 15000 0.05685823 1.82Eþ08
0.9 50 5 28 25922.94594 34 20000 999999 15000 0.05298469 1.73Eþ08
0.9 80 5 28 26547.63602 34 20000 999999 15000 0.04935391 1.64Eþ08
0.6 30 5.05 29.7 29677.31955 35 20000 999999 15000 0.05501204 1.78Eþ08
0.6 30 5.05 30 29677.31955 35 20000 999999 15000 0.05526521 1.79Eþ08
1 30 5.25 32 24367.26998 35 20000 999999 15000 0.06029138 1.94Eþ08
1 50 5.25 32 24367.26998 35 20000 999999 15000 0.0562457 1.84Eþ08
1 80 5.25 32 24367.26998 35 20000 999999 15000 0.05252331 1.75Eþ08
1 30 5 32 24769.40582 35 20000 999999 15000 0.06096904 1.95Eþ08
1 50 5 32 24769.40582 35 20000 999999 15000 0.05690466 1.86Eþ08
1 80 5 32 24769.40582 35 20000 999999 15000 0.05316444 1.77Eþ08

Table 19
Cost Summary for a subset of Sensitivity Variables.

Sensitivity Variables with HOMER Biomass Average Price Sensitivity PVs Capital Solar Resource Scaled Annual Average (kWh/m2/ Hub Height
Cycle Charging ($/Ton) Multiplier day) (m)

28 0.6 5.05 20

Cost Summary System Canadian Solar DYMOND CS6X-315 Wind flow 45-500 Biogas Generator Grid
(NPC)

Capital $69,230,520.96 $16,748,520.96 $31,200,000.00 $19,932,000.00 $0.00


Replacement $58,423,775.19 $0.00 $0.00 $57,613,057.69 $0.00
O&M $16,354,571.09 $12,607,380.42 $10,609,905.73 $601,339.33 $40,361,003.99
Fuel $76,591,541.90 $0.00 $0.00 $76,591,541.90 $0.00
Salvage $7,601,019.56 $2,013,384.68 $0.00 $5,587,656.81 $0.00
Total $180,290,247.40 $27,342,516.70 $41,809,905.73 $149,150,282.11 $40,361,003.99

The cost summary for two best system configurations is given in Table 23. The system is techno-economically feasible.

advantages in terms of local energy availability besides postponing 4.1. Wind turbines
the construction of long and expensive AC or DC additional power
flow corridors. Wind-solar-biomass hybrid power system is an in- SUNEC Wind Power Generation (Pvt.) Ltd of China has installed
tegrated system of, wind energy, solar energy and biomass energy. the wind turbine in a model wind power generating farm at Buchal
The rational allocation of every part's capacity of generating system Khurd, 20 km from Kallar Kahar as shown in Fig. 26. AEDB had
is very important to guarantee the reliability of generating system. identified a 165 km long wind energy corridor in Punjab which
To satisfy the requirement of users' electricity consumption, anal- started from the famous tourist resort of salt range Kallar Kahar and
ysis is required for the electricity consumption and local solar, wind ended at the valley of Soon Sakesar. In the first phase, the Chinese
and biomass resources conditions to allocate the most suitable company completed installation of wind turbines in the model
system for different users. A number of PV panels are connected in farm. The company planned to install 2.5 MW wind turbines up to
series and/or in parallel giving the required DC output from the 50 MW capacity. To the best of our knowledge the project was not
available irradiance. Orientation and tilt of these panels are completed yet for unknown reasons. However, this provided us
important design parameters, as well as avoiding as much shading idea what type of turbines can be used. Since the wind speeds for
as possible from surrounding obstructions. Wind turbines are Kallar Kahar region lie in between wind power classes 3 and 4
installed on top of a tall tower, collects kinetic energy from the (moderate to good) we can use medium power wind turbines from
wind and converts it to electricity that is compatible with a home's 500 kW to around 1500 kW maximum power output. Kallar Kahar
electrical system. A charge controller controls the battery bank and district Chakwal comes under Islamabad Electric Supply
charge and discharge keeping it within optimum safety limits. A Company (IESCO). The power can be generated at nominal voltage
converter that changes the DC power from the batteries into AC of 690 V and can be stepped to 11kV/66KV/132 kV grid voltages. The
power is suitable for the required loads. Loads are fed from the Choa Saidan Shah to Noor Pur Sethi 132 kV transmission line sub-
inverter (AC loads), or from the battery bank (DC loads). The project has been prepared by IESCO to improve electric power
biomass gasification system converts agriculture and forestry supply in Noor Pur Sethi area in Chakwal district of Punjab prov-
products, cattle waste and wood processing remains (including rice ince. The existing 66 kV grid station at Noor Poor Sethi has been
husks, wood powder, branches, off cuts, corn straws, rice straws, planned to be converted into 132 kV and connected to Choa Saidan
wheat straws, cotton straws, fruit shells, coconut shells, palm shells, Shah 132 kV grid station by means of a new 47.65 km long trans-
bagasse, corncobs and etc.) into combustible gas. It is then used as mission line (TL). Table 25 and Table 26 gives detail of no. of wind
fuel in gas turbine to generate electricity. turbines required and their model for generating 15 MW. Turbine
J. Ahmad et al. / Energy 148 (2018) 208e234 225

Fig. 23. Sensitivity plots with COE Superimposed (a) Hub Height vs. Biomass Price (b) Hub Height vs. Capital Cost Multiplier, (c) Surface plot with Solar Scaled Average vs. Biomass
Price with NPC and COE Superimposed.
226 J. Ahmad et al. / Energy 148 (2018) 208e234

Table 20
Two best system configurations.

System Configuration Cost component Value Unit

PV-Biomass-Wind-Grid Total NPC 180,290,247.40 $


Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) 0.05744 $/kWh
PV-Biomass-Grid Total NPC 178,790,678.90 $
Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) 0.0614 $/kWh

Fig. 24. HOMER-Pro snapshot of Monthly Average Electric Power Production.

Table 21
Net Present Costs in USD ($).

Cost Summary System CanadianSolar DYMOND Windflow 45- Biogas Grid HOMER Cycle Leonics GTP519S 900 kW
(NPC) CS6X-315 500 Generator Charging 700Vdc

Capital $69,230,520.96 $16,748,520.96 $31,200,000.00 $19,932,000.00 $0.00 $0.00 $1,350,000.00


Replacement $58,423,775.19 $0.00 $0.00 $57,613,057.69 $0.00 $0.00 $810,717.50
O&M $16,354,571.09 $12,607,380.42 $10,609,905.73 $601,339.33 $40,361,003.99 $0.00 $164,983.69
Fuel $76,591,541.90 $0.00 $0.00 $76,591,541.90 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Salvage $7,601,019.56 $2,013,384.68 $0.00 $5,587,656.81 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Total $180,290,247.40 $27,342,516.70 $41,809,905.73 $149,150,282.11 $40,361,003.99 $0.00 $2,325,701.19

units can be installed optimally in a wind farm style for harvesting conditions, it is highly desirable to control DC voltage output from
maximum wind energy. Fig. 27 shows a typical layout of wind farm the panel and operate it at its maximum power point called MPP.
wind energy conversion system (WECS) with its major Trackers are installed in practice to achieve maximum power point
components. tracking (MPPT). The scheme looks like as shown in Fig. 28 with
advanced net metering facility. Solar arrays can be used for DC load
as well as for AC loads. However, an inverter is needed to convert
4.2. Photovoltaic system DC to AC which brings some other challenges such as harmonics
and transients. Voltage and frequency regulation is also required if
After connecting many solar cells in series and parallel, the the output of the inverter is fed to utility grid. Solar modules can be
current and voltage rating of a solar panel can be enhanced to meet used in isolated mode as well as grid connected mode. In isolated
the required load demand. Since temperature and irradiance are mode, the solar modules have to adjust their frequency and voltage
two variables which affect the output from the solar panel, a DC-DC while in the case of grid-tied modules, utility grid usually takes care
converter is usually installed to regulate the output voltage to of the system frequency and voltage. It is extremely important to
desired level. Three types of converters are available namely: Buck, include synchronization mechanism at point-of-common-coupling
Boost and Buck-Boost converters. With changing environment
J. Ahmad et al. / Energy 148 (2018) 208e234 227

Fig. 25. Discounted Cash Flow for 20 years.

Table 22 sugar mills, rice mills, MSW landfills and dairy farms) as well as the
Renewable fraction. potential for green field power plants using crop harvesting residue
Component Production(kWh/year) Fraction (%) feedstock. The analysis showed that bagasse offers the highest
potential as fuel for cogeneration plants at the 86 existing sugar
PV 41,540,527 16.1
Biogas Generator 156,680,000 60.93 mills of Pakistan. MSW can also be used for large-scale grid-con-
Wind Turbine 31,396,527 12.21 nected power plants. However, rice husk and cattle manure seem to
Grid Purchases 31,547,291 12.26 offer a limited energy potential. It should be noted that the analysis
Total 257,124,934 100
does not include all the existing MSW landfills, rice mills and
livestock farms in Pakistan due to the lack of data. The potential for
green field power plants using crop harvesting residues was
(PCC) to ensure the right instance when PV system is connected assessed based on their site suitability indicators. This site suit-
with the grid. Table 27 and Table 28 provide some of the technical ability indicator takes into account the feedstock sourcing area size,
data for PV modules and inverters respectively that can also be the road network density in the region, and the distance to the grid.
installed at Kallar Kahar for 15 MW PV power generation. A high site suitability value indicates a good site for a potential
power plant, whereas a low value indicates a poor location. The site
4.3. Biomass energy suitability maps were produced for 19 different combinations of
energy conversion technologies and power plant capacities. The
The Biomass Atlas for Pakistan also presents the potential for maximum direct sourcing distance allowed was 50 km. The
implementing power plants at the biomass producing sites (such as maximum feedstock sourcing area, and hence distance, is

Table 23
Gaseous emission reduction.

Emissions Carbon Dioxide Carbon Monoxide Unburned Hydrocarbons Particulate Matter Sulfur Dioxide Nitrogen Oxides

Units kg/yr kg/yr kg/yr kg/yr kg/yr kg/yr


Quantity 19,976.607 1455 161 110 86,440 55,255

Table 24
Grid Connection and peak demand.

Grid Energy purchased (kWh) Energy sold (kWh) Net energy purchased (kWh) Peak demand (kW)

January 1,391,528 7,159,126 5,767,597 52,704


February 1,302,158 6,981,852 5,679,694 40,235
March 1,903,804 6,454,657 4,550,854 43,098
April 2,256,981 6,028,155 3,771,174 55,107
May 2,547,763 5,730,167 3,182,403 57,588
June 3,714,239 4,932,937 1,218,698 59,047
July 4,082,862 3,941,816 141,046 80,145
August 5,283,392 3,472,512 1,810,880 64,447
September 3,357,540 4,255,829 898,290 52,690
October 2,291,185 5,492,794 3,201,609 50,426
November 1,822,608 6,494,426 4,671,818 50,961
December 1,593,230 6,783,652 5,190,422 52,556
Annual 31,547,291 67,727,923 36,180,633 80,145
228 J. Ahmad et al. / Energy 148 (2018) 208e234

plants with inclined grate combustion steam boiler and steam


turbine.
Due to space limitation we cannot give detail of the various
technology options available. However good treatment of the
subject is given for various biomass plant technologies and energy
conversion techniques in Refs. [71e73]. One of the possibilities to
purchase these power plant is from Chinese company POWERMAX
[74]. The POWERMAX biomass gasification power generation sys-
tems are based on a modular concept and are applicable for
50e20000 kW biomass power station installations. There are four
series of biomass gasification system offered by POWERMAX which
ranges from 50 to 20000 kW of power generation: CFBG (Circu-
Fig. 26. SUNEC 0.6 MW wind power generating units at Bochal Khurd, 20 km from lating Fluidized Bed Gasifier) Series, UFBG (Updraft Fixed Bed
Kallar Kahar. Gasifier) Series, DFBG (Downdraft Fixed Bed Gasifier) Series, TFBG
(Twin-fire Fixed Bed Gasifier). A series biomass generator sets from
50 kW to 1000 kW are developed by POWERMAX to combine with
Table 25
Requirement of low power horizontal axis wind turbines for Kallar Kahar loads. POWERMAX advanced gasification technology. These gas generator
sets are using the high efficiency Siemens technology alternators,
Parameter Values
Chinese top brand medium speed gas engine (500e1000 rpm) with
Turbine Power Rating (kW) 600 800 1000 1200 1500 advanced European engine control systems. The high performance
Total Capacity required in (kW) 15000 15000 15000 15000 15000
of the POWERMAX biomass gasification plants and the later pro-
No. of Wind Turbines Needed 25 19 15 13 10
duction of electricity with the gensets represents a competitive
solution when compared with conventional boiler-fired system.
Based on the available resource and power rating of the plant any
determined by both the power plant capacity and the technology choice can be made for selection of the biomass plant as shown in
used. Fig. 29 illustrates the site suitability for the 15 MW power

Table 26
Suitable wind turbine models for installation.

Maximum Power Output Manufacturer Turbine Model Generator Technology cut-in/rated wind Hub Height (m)
speed (m/s)

500 kW DW 52 /54 Synchronous air-cooled EWT-design, multi-pole, 3/10 35/40/50/75


wound-rotor
800 kW Enercon E53/48 direct-drive annular synchronous generator 2.5/12 50 /60 /65 /73 /76
900 kW EWT DW61 Synchronous multi-pole 2.5/11.5 46/69
1.5 MW GE 1.5sle Double Fed Asynchronous 3.5/12 61.4/64.7/80/85
1.5 MW Swiss Electric YZ82/1.5 Permanent magnet direct-driving 2.0/10.2 70/80
YZ93/1.5 1.8/9.3 80/90
YZ103/1.5 1.8/8.7 90/100
2e3 MW Enercon E82 low-speed synchronous generator with no 2/12 78 /84 /85 /98 /108 /138
direct grid coupling

Fig. 27. Wind Farm Layout and transmission scheme [50].


J. Ahmad et al. / Energy 148 (2018) 208e234 229

Fig. 28. Proposed PV power plant schematic diagram and net metering [70].

Table 27
Technical details of a 15 MW solar system for Kallar Kahar region.

Solar Panels /PV modules (DYMOND CS6X-315/320/325P-FG - CanadianSolar Photovoltaic Module) Type of module Poly-crystalline

No of PV modules In Series per string 17

In Parallel 3000 strings

Total No of PV modules No of modules 51000

Unit Norm Power 315 W

Total Arrays 750

Array Power Nominal(at STC) 20 kW

Array Operating Characteristics Vmpp 622 V

Impp 8.61 A
2
Total Module Area ~100,000m
No of Solar cells per module 72
Efficiency of Module 16.14%
Voltage at Pmax 36.6 V
Current at Pmax 8.61 A
Open Circuit Voltage (VOC) 45.1 V
Short Circuit Current (ISC) 9.18 A
Maximum System Voltage 1500 V DC (IEC)
Temperature coefficient of VOC 0.31%/0C
Temperature coefficient of ISC þ0.053%/0C
Nominal Operating Cell Temp. 45 ± 2  C

Table 29 and Table 30. 5. Comparison with similar case studies


A hybrid power plant consisting of wind, PV and Biomass can
now be proposed as shown in Fig. 30 and its associated diagram for There are only few case studies that deal with the techno eco-
interconnection of system components as shown in Fig. 31. nomic assessment of micro grid hybrid energy systems [5]. A
comprehensive literature review was carried out to find the
230 J. Ahmad et al. / Energy 148 (2018) 208e234

Table 28 It should be noted that the results are compared based on Rank
Technical details of 15 MW solar system inverters for Kallar Kahar region. 1(see Table 16) result obtained from HOMER Pro optimization
Inverters TC500KM TC630 KM TC850KM TC1000 KM environment. The result shows good agreement when compared
Max. DC Power 567 kW 714 kW 964 kW 1134 kW
with the share of the renewable energy mix, which is almost 90% in
MPP Voltage Range 500-820 V 500-820 V 500-820 V 500-820 V all cases. However, in case of hydropower in hybrid energy system
Max. AC Power 550 kW 693 kW 935 kW 1100 kW [78] and off-grid systems [76], the COE is relatively higher than
Nominal AC Voltage 315 V 315 V 315 V 315 V present case study due to higher investment cost. However, for
No of MPP Trackers 3 4 5 6
microgrid system the result shows good agreement with other
Max. Efficiency 98.7% 98.7% 98.7% 98.7%
Euro Efficiency 98.5% 98.5% 98.5% 98.5% studies such as [79] and [77]. A system level synoptic table is
No of Inverters 28 22 16 14 provided with techno-economic details of proposed hybrid system
Total Power 15 MW 15 MW 15 MW 15 MW as shown in Table 32.

suitable case studies to compare the results in south Asian region. 6. Conclusion
Although, it was difficult to compare these case studies due to the
variation in size (kW) and type of hybrid energy mix. However, a It is of crucial importance to develop the sustainable future
comparison has been made on the basis of cost of energy (COE, energy system to address the energy crisis issue and mitigate the
$/kWh), renewable share (%), and type of energy mix as shown in greenhouse gas emission in developing countries. To the best of our
Table 31. knowledge and from the literature study, there still exist a research
knowledge gap in case of hybrid energy system consisting of wind-

Fig. 29. Site suitability indicator map for 15 MW power plants with inclined grate steam boiler.

Table 29
Analyzed combinations of power plant technologies and capacities.

Technology Plant Power Capacity (MWe)

Horizontal grate combustion steam boiler þ steam turbine 3, 8 and 15


Inclined grate combustion steam boiler þ steam turbine 3, 8 and 15
Bubbling fluidized bed combustion steam boiler þ steam turbine 8, 15, 25, 50 and 100
Circulating fluidized bed combustion steam boiler þ steam turbine 15, 25, 50 and 100
Gasifier þ syngas engine/turbine 0.5 and 1.5
Anaerobic digester þ biogas engine 0.5 and 1.5
J. Ahmad et al. / Energy 148 (2018) 208e234 231

Table 30
Technical specification of CFBG series biomass gasification generation system [75].

Model CFBGPP 200 CFBGPP 200 CFBGPP 200 CFBGPP 200 CFBGPP 200 CFBGPP 200 CFBGPP 200 CFBGPP 200 CFBGPP 200

Rated Power (kW) 200 400 500 600 800 1000 1200 1500 2000
Biomass Consumption (kg/hr) 200e360 400e720 500e900 600e1080 800e1440 1000e1800 1200e2160 1500e2700 2000e3600
Gas production (Nm3/hr) 600e700 1200e1400 1500e1750 1800e2100 2400e2800 3000e3500 3600e4200 4500e5250 6000e7000
Heating Value of the Gas 1200-1300 kcal/Nm3
Rated frequency 50/60 Hz
Rated Voltage 220/400/440/6300/6600/11000/13800
Gasifier Type Circulating Fluidized Bed Gasifier
Gas Composition CO-12e18%, CO2-10e16%, CH4- 4e8%, H2-3~7%, O2-0.5e1.2%, N2- 54e60%
Ash Discharge type Dry type

Fig. 30. Proposed hybrid Wind-PV-Biomass Power System at Kallar Kahar.

Fig. 31. Interconnection of system components and integration with transmission network [68].
232 J. Ahmad et al. / Energy 148 (2018) 208e234

Table 31
Comparison of present study with other studies.

Ref Country Hybrid System Energy Mix COE ($/kWh) Dispatch Method Renewable Fraction (%)

Source 1 (kW) Source 2 (kW) Source 3 (kW) Source 4 (kW)

[76] Bangladesh Wind 14 Battery 285 PV 25 e 0.47 CC 0.92


[77] India Diesel 0 Biomass 15 PV 0 Grid 100 0.064 CC 0.91
[78] India Wind 0 Hydro 29.98 PV 20 Bio Diesel 10 0.42 CC 0.90
[79] Ethiopia Wind 0 Hydro 34.2 PV 0 e 0.101 LF 0.90
Present Study Pakistan Wind 15000 Biomass 20000 PV 15000 Grid 99999 0.0525 CC 0.88

PV-biomass system for rural electrification in developing countries. recommended that alternate energy resources should be given
A comprehensive market review is carried out to identify the highest priority and incentives should be offered to local commu-
suitable and commercially available technology for the hybrid en- nities in terms of reduced price of electricity generation through
ergy integration. The hybrid energy system is flexible and can be local resources. There might be certain concerns regarding heavy
used both for purchase of electricity in case of high load demand truck and trolley traffic and its social and environmental effects on
and sell electricity when load demand is low. The study includes proposed power plant given the nature and operation of a bio po-
development of a detailed model of HOMER Pro simulation with wer facility. For example, a large number of heavy trucks rolling
analysis and system optimization. To measure the uncertainty, the around the community carrying raw biomass would affect the local
sensitivity analysis has been performed to investigate the impact of community and its activities. It is suggested that a suitable site close
capital and operational costs of the proposed hybrid power system to Kallar Kahar within 10e15 km radius be further investigated for
together with varying biomass costs and their influence on elec- installation of such a hybrid plant so that echo system is maintained
tricity price. Further, the applicability of the hybrid system is dis- at all times. From this techno-economic study, it is concluded that
cussed using a scenario of a megawatt scale hybrid power plant at a Kallar Kahar area is feasible for generation of electricity by a hybrid
selected location to show a feasible power generation scheme and mix of wind-solar and Biomass. The resource assessment and
its integration with national grid. feasibility study will help local government to invite local or foreign
In this paper we have analyzed wind, PV and Biomass resource investors to finance the project. The cost of energy is calculated for
potential of a selected area in province Punjab. Kallar Kahar is a different peak load, energy demand profiles and grid availability.
potential site for installation of renewable energy technologies The cost of energy in case of grid-tied hybrid system for peak load
with possible local and foreign investment. The whole system was of 73.6 MW is 180 million USD and levelized COE is 0.0574 $/kWh.
optimized in HOMER Pro for a small scale 50 MW hybrid power To implement this project, certain risks should be taken into
plant. The load can be shared among wind, PV and biomass power account. The first concern that arises relates to financing of the
plants and surplus can be sold to national grid. Due to prevailing investment. System implementation requires a multimillion dollar
situation in the country of electricity shortfall it is highly investment. Although the investment volume is not large consid-
ering a MW scale project, either for any conventional lender (such
as banks) or for any local or international utility investor, significant
Table 32
risks are involved in the investment. Second, if the project does not
Techno-economic details of proposed hybrid system Configuration. succeed for any reason, the investment will be a sunk cost for the
investor and will represent a bad investment. The electricity market
Configuration Unit Value
in the area is not very well developed and the assumptions related
Annaul Scaled Average Wind speed m/s 7.22 to the demand may not materialize, or take longer to realize. This
Biomass fuel price $/ton 28e32
will adversely affect the cost recovery process. Third, the business
Solar PV CS6X-315 (kW) kW 20000
Solar Resource Scaled Annual Average (kWh/m2/day) 5.05 environment may be affected by political, regulatory and gover-
Solar PV Penetration % 22 nance challenges, thereby affecting such investments. Fourth, there
Wind Turbines WF45e500 kW No. 30 are practical difficulties (e.g. availability of skilled manpower,
Converter Leonics BDI-3P kW 15000 managing supply logistics, and poor transport facilities) that can
Biogas Generator kW 20000
Dispatch Strategy e CC
add to costs, delay project delivery and reduce profitability of the
Total Capital Cost $M 69.2 project. In such cases, appropriate incentives and support mecha-
Total NPC $M 180.3 nisms will play an important role to attract investment and miti-
Total LCOE $/kWh 0.05744 gate risks. The good points are proposed system has been found
System Renewable Penetration % 88
techno-economically feasible. The study concluded that the cost
Bio/Production GWh/yr 156.8
Biogas Renewable Penetration % 66 of energy for a grid-connected hybrid system is lower compared to
WF45/Capital Cost $M 31.2 an off-grid hybrid system with similar load profiles. The techno-
WF45/Production GWh/yr 48.6 economic study given in this research shows that other places
WF45/O&M Cost $M 10.6 with similar climatic and economic conditions are prospective
Grid Energy Purchased GWh/yr 31.5
Grid Energy Sold GWh/yr 67.7
candidates for deployment of the proposed hybrid system for
AC Primary Load served GWh/yr 189 electricity generation.
Replacement Cost of Hybrid System $M 58.4
O&M Cost of Hybrid System $M 16.3
Fuel Cost $M 76.5 References
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