Equity Research

October 16, 2018

Hua Hong Semiconductor

Lower target price to HK$20.00 on expected macro slowdown in 2019
Results Preview Maintain BUY

3Q18 earnings expected to be in-line Ticker 01347.HK

We expect Hua Hong Semiconductor to report 4% QoQ revenue CICC investment rating BUY

growth and a 33% GPM for 3Q18, at the high end of guidance. Last close HK$13.46
CICC target HK$20.00
However, we lower our 2019 revenue and net profit forecasts by 3%
and 11% to reflect a more cautious view on the firm’s ASP trajectory 52wk price range HK$30.60~10.44
due to a macro slowdown. We maintain BUY on the stock with a new Market cap (bn) HK$14
target price of HK$20.00, based on 1.2x FY19e BVPS. Daily value (mn) HK$92.71
Shares outstanding (mn) 1,041
Free float (%) 100
Trends to watch Daily volume (mn sh) 5.97
8” demand remain resilient: The market for power discrete remains Business sector Electronic Components
undersupplied (mainly in the high voltage MOSFET and IGBT
segments) and the 8” fab production capacity is tight. SUMCO says
demand for 8” wafers is averaging 5.5–5.6mn units per month. We 288
01347.HK HSCEI

think demand for power discrete and high UTR in 8” fabs will remain 241
Relative Value (%)

robust until 2019.

194

But ASP hikes unlikely to continue: However, a double booking issue 147
for 8”power discrete appears to be arising, and high inventories at 100
end-product manufacturers could result in fewer orders in the future.
Consequently, we now expect Hua Hong’s 8” ASP to decline 1% in 53
Oct-2017 Jan-2018 Apr-2018 Jul-2018 Oct-2018
2019, vs. our previous prediction of a 3% increase.
(US$ mn) 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E
Valuation and recommendation Revenue 721 808 920 1,001
We maintain BUY on Hua Hong but lower our target price 41% to (+/-) 11.0% 12.0% 13.8% 8.8%
HK$20.00, cutting our target multiple from 2.0x to 1.2x 2019e P/B to Net profit 129 145 164 170
reflect a dim macro outlook for 2019. The stock is trading at 0.8x (+/-) 14.5% 12.8% 12.9% 3.7%
2019e P/B. Our target offers 49% upside. Our target multiple is based EPS 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.16
on the 2019e P/B-ROE trend line of five major pure-play foundries. BPS 1.43 1.62 2.11 2.22
DPS 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.05
Risks CPS 0.20 0.25 0.26 0.33

Wafer ASP could decline; Wuxi fab capacity and yield may ramp up P/E 14.0 12.4 11.1 10.7

slowly. P/B 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.8

EV/EBITDA 7.8 6.2 5.1 5.1
Dividend yield 1.1% 2.3% 2.6% 2.7%
ROAA 6.9% 7.4% 7.1% 6.5%
ROAE 8.6% 9.1% 8.4% 7.5%

Source: Wind, Bloomberg, Corporate filings, CICC Research

Leping HUANG Ning DING Qiaosheng CHENG

Analyst Analyst Associate
leping.huang@cicc.com.cn ning.ding@cicc.com.cn qiaosheng.cheng@cicc.com.cn
SAC Reg. No.: S0080518070001 SAC Reg. No.: S0080117070001 SAC Reg. No.: S0080118100006
SFC CE Ref: AUZ066 SFC CE Ref: BNN540

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 CICC Research: October 16, 2018

Financial summary
Financial statement (USD mn) 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E Financial ratios 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E
Income statement Growth ability
Revenue 721 808 920 1,001 Revenue 11.0% 12.0% 13.8% 8.8%
COGS -501 -541 -616 -670 Operating profit 27.1% 23.7% 13.8% 5.3%
Selling expenses -7 -7 -8 -9 EBITDA 13.9% 23.4% 16.0% 21.8%
Administrative expenses -97 -109 -124 -140 Net profit 14.5% 12.8% 12.9% 3.7%
Other ops income (expense) -3 -11 -12 -13 Profitability
Operating profit 113 140 160 168 Gross margin 30.5% 33.1% 33.1% 33.1%
Finance costs -2 -2 -2 -1 Operating margin 15.7% 17.4% 17.4% 16.8%
Other income (expense) 40 26 29 27 EBITDA margin 27.7% 30.5% 31.1% 34.8%
Profit before income tax 153 172 195 202 Net margin 17.9% 18.0% 17.8% 17.0%
Income tax -25 -27 -31 -32 Liquidity
Minority interest 0 0 0 0 Current ratio 3.00 2.53 3.06 2.05
Net profit 129 145 164 170 Quick ratio 2.60 2.19 2.60 1.62
EBITDA 200 247 286 348 Cash ratio 1.43 1.11 1.31 0.29
Recurrent net income 0 0 0 0 Liabilities / assets 18.5% 18.4% 13.2% 12.5%
Balance sheet Net debt / equity net cash net cash net cash net cash
Cash and bank balances 341 375 382 83 Return
Trade and bill receivables 153 169 183 194 RoA 6.9% 7.4% 7.1% 6.5%
Inventories 95 116 134 123 RoE 8.6% 9.1% 8.4% 7.5%
Other current assets 126 194 194 194 Per-share data
Total current assets 715 853 893 593 EPS (USD) 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.16
Fixed assets and CIP 677 754 1,193 1,613 BPS (USD) 1.43 1.62 2.11 2.22
Intangible assets and others 435 471 471 471 DPS (USD) 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.05
Total non-current assets 1,112 1,225 1,664 2,084 Cash flow per share (USD) 0.20 0.25 0.26 0.33
Total assets 1,827 2,078 2,556 2,677 Valuation
Short-term borrowings 2 61 0 0 P/E 14.0 12.4 11.1 10.7
Trade and bill payables 65 68 84 81 P/B 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.8
Other current liabilities 171 208 208 208 EV/EBITDA 7.8 6.2 5.1 5.1
Total current liabilities 238 337 292 289 Dividend yield 1.1% 2.3% 2.6% 2.7%
Long-term borrowings 91 32 32 32
Total non-current liabilities 100 46 46 46
Total liabilities 338 383 338 336
Share capital 1,489 1,695 2,218 2,342
Retained profit 0 0 0 0
Equity 1,489 1,695 2,218 2,342
Total liabilities & equity 1,827 2,078 2,556 2,677
Cash flow statement
Pretax profit 129 145 164 170
Depreciation & amortization 84 104 124 179
Change in working capital -4 -34 -17 -2
Others 3 43 0 0
Cash flow from operations 212 258 271 348
Capital expenditure -173 -138 -563 -600
Others -61 -59 0 0
Cash flow from investing -233 -197 -563 -600
Equity financing 0 3 400 0
Bank borrowings -86 -2 -61 0
Others -40 -42 -41 -46
Cash flow from financing -125 -41 298 -46
Foreign exchange gain (loss) -22 13 0 0
Net changes in cash -169 34 7 -299

Source: Corporate filings, CICC Research

Company description
Hua Hong is ranked second globally amongst pure-play 200mm foundries, and sixth amongst all the pure-play foundries worldwide focusing on
the research, development and manufacturing of semiconductors on 200mm, or 8-inch, wafers for specialty applications, in particular eNVM
and power discretes. Their portfolio also includes several other advanced process technologies such as RFCMOS, analog and mixed signal,
CMOS image sensors, PMIC and MEMS. The semiconductors the company manufactures are incorporated into a wide range of products in
diverse markets, including consumer electronics, communications, computing and industrial and automotive.

Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report
2
 CICC Research: October 16, 2018

Earnings preview and valuation adjustment

We expect Hua Hong Semiconductor to report 4% QoQ revenue growth and a 33% GPM for
3Q18, at the high end of guidance. However, we lower our 2019 revenue and net profit forecasts
by 3% and 11% to reflect the negative ASP impact on 8” wafer revenue from a macro slowdown.
We maintain BUY on the stock with a new target price of HK$20.00, based on 1.2x FY19e BVPS

Figure 1: Earnings review and forecasts

(US$ mn) 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18E 3Q18E 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019E
A A (CICC) (Guide) A (CICC) (CICC) (CICC) (OLD) (OLD) Diff. Diff.

Capacity (translating to 8", kpm) 168 172 174 168 176 209 231 178 211 -1% -1%
% chg QoQ 0.0% 2.4% 8% 5% 18% 11%
Utilization 97% 102% 98% 93% 93% 90%
Turnover 210 230 239 up 3-4% QoQ 808 920 1,001 1,159 908 1,029 1% -3%
% chg YoY 14.7% 16.1% 13.9% 12% 14% 9% 16%
% chg QoQ -3.1% 9.4% 4.0% 12% 14% 9% 16%
Blended ASP (8") 454 449 464 423 465 468 476
% chg QoQ 7.0% -1.0% 3.3% 7% 10% 1% 2%
COGS (142.7) (152.6) (160.2) (541) (616) (670) (794)
Gross profit 67 77 78.9 267 304 331 365 300 340 1% -3%
OPEX (34) (34) (37.5) (127) (144) (163) (188)
Operating income 33 43 41.4 140 160 168 177 158 179 1% -6%
% chg QoQ 0.2% 28.0% -3.3% 24% 14% 5% 5%
Non-operating incomes 7 17 6.0 32 35 33 35
Pretax income 40 59 47.4 172 195 202 212 195 226 0% -11%
% chg QoQ -17.8% 48.6% -20.1% 12% 13% 4% 5%
Taxes 0.3 (13.4) (7.5) (27) (31) (32) (33)
Net income 40 46 39.9 145 164 170 178 164 190 0% -11%
% chg QoQ -3.4% 14.2% -12.9% 13% 13% 4% 5%
EPS (US$) 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.17
ROE 9.2% 10.4% 18.5% 9.1% 8.4% 7.5% 7.4%
BVPS 1.90 2.17 1.54 1.62 2.11 2.22 2.35
Ratios (%)
Gross margin 32.1% 33.6% 33.0% 32-33% 33.1% 33.1% 33.1% 31.5% 33.1% 33.1% 0.0pp 0.0pp
OPEX -16.2% -15.0% -15.7% -15.7% -15.7% -16.2% -16.2%
OPM 15.9% 18.6% 17.3% 17.4% 17.4% 16.8% 15.3% 17.4% 17.4% 0.0pp -0.6pp
Net profit margin 19.1% 19.9% 16.7% 18.0% 17.8% 17.0% 15.4% 18.1% 18.5% -0.3pp -1.5pp
Source: Wind Info, Bloomberg, CICC Research

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3
 CICC Research: October 16, 2018

Valuation

Pure-play foundry shares have enjoyed a heady rise since 2016. Hua Hong has led, advancing
124% until now. Of late, however, the stock has corrected considerably amid gloomy sentiment
for power discrete demand and rising concerns over channel inventories.

Figure 2: Share price analysis (Hua Hong vs. other foundries)

450%
TSMC UMC Vanguard SMIC Hua Hong

400%

350%

300%

250%
Hua Hong : 124%

200% TSMC: 84%

Vanguard: 59%
150%
UMC: 33%

100% SMIC: 6%

50%

0%
2016/1/3 2016/4/3 2016/7/3 2016/10/3 2017/1/3 2017/4/3 2017/7/3 2017/10/3 2018/1/3 2018/4/3 2018/7/3

Source: Wind Info, Bloomberg, CICC Research

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4
 CICC Research: October 16, 2018

Sensitivity analysis for 2019e ROE

We believe ASP and utilization rate are the major variables driving Hua Hong’s earnings, and
have analyzed the sensitivity of the firm’s 2019e ROE to the two factors (the results range from
6.1% to 9.0%). Foundry company valuations largely follow the relationship between P/B and
ROE—a higher ROE generally means a higher P/B. Hua Hong has benefited from tight supply of 8”
capacity, and its ROE has risen over the past few quarters. Based on our sensitivity analysis and
the industry P/B-ROE trend line, its fair 2019e P/B lies within a 1.0–1.5x range.

Figure 3: ROE sensitivity to ASP and utilization rate (2019) Figure 4: P/B vs ROE (2019e)
ASP YoY ROE 25.0
7.5% -6% -4% -2% -1% 2% 4% TSMC
Vanguard
88% 6.1% 6.4% 6.6% 6.8% 7.2% 7.4%
89% 6.3% 6.5% 6.8% 6.9% 7.3% 7.6% 20.0

90% 6.4% 6.7% 6.9% 7.1% 7.5% 7.7%

91% 6.6% 6.8% 7.1% 7.2% 7.6% 7.9% 15.0
92% 6.7% 7.0% 7.3% 7.4% 7.8% 8.1%
UTR 93% 6.9% 7.1% 7.4% 7.5% 7.9% 8.2%
94% 7.0% 7.3% 7.6% 7.7% 8.1% 8.4% 10.0 Hua Hong
95% 7.1% 7.4% 7.7% 7.8% 8.3% 8.5%
UMC
96% 7.3% 7.6% 7.9% 8.0% 8.4% 8.7%
5.0
97% 7.4% 7.7% 8.0% 8.1% 8.6% 8.9%
98% 7.6% 7.9% 8.2% 8.3% 8.7% 9.0% SMIC
-
- 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
P/B

Source: Wind Info, Bloomberg, CICC Research Source: Wind Info, Bloomberg, CICC Research

Figure 5: P/E band Figure 6: P/B band

30 40

35
25
30
20
25

15 20

15
10
10
5
5

0 0
2014-10-17

2015-04-17

2015-10-17

2016-04-17

2016-10-17

2017-04-17

2017-10-17

2018-04-17

2014-10-17

2015-04-17

2015-10-17

2016-04-17

2016-10-17

2017-04-17

2017-10-17

2018-04-17

Price 7x 10x 13x 16x 19x Price 0.5x 0.9x 1.3x 1.7x 2x

Source: Wind Info, CICC Research Source: Wind Info, CICC Research

Figure 7: Valuations of comparable companies

P/E P/B EPS
WIND Company Price M/Caps ROE(%) Price change
growth
TICKER 15-Oct USD mn 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019E 2018E 2018E 3M YTD
2330.TW TSMC 230.50 193,460 16.9 14.9 3.6 3.2 22.3 3% 3 1
2303.TW UMC 13.35 5,365 14.9 15.4 0.8 0.8 5.2 15% -22 -6
0981.HK SMIC 6.90 4,630 40.3 46.9 0.9 0.9 2.2 -44% -29 -45
5347.TWO Vanguard 57.30 3,037 15.9 13.9 3.3 3.0 20.8 31% -17 -10
1347.HK HUA HONG 13.46 1,908 11.1 10.7 0.8 0.8 8.4 15% -52 -16
Foundry-Average 19.8 20.4 1.9 1.7 11.8
Foundry-Median 15.9 14.9 0.9 0.9 8.4
Source: Wind Info, Bloomberg, CICC Research

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 CICC Research: October 16, 2018

Market update: Will 8-inch market turn down as well?

Global semiconductor industry enters a down-cycle

After rising for five years, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is now at an unprecedented
high, but slowing monthly shipment YoY growth at North American equipment manufacturers
suggests that foundry equipment demand has slowed, and foundry expansion plans tend to be
conservative. On the demand side, YoY growth in semiconductor sales has also begun to decline
this year. Foundries face headwinds: 1) growth of advanced process product sales is suffering
from a slowdown in smartphone shipments to low single-digit levels this year; 2) a plunge in
crypto currency prices has hit demand for mining chips; and 3) in terms of mature processes,
foundry inventory levels have risen because of double-booking.

Figure 8: SOX and semiconductor sales growth Figure 9: Semiconductor equipment sales growth has slowed
1,600 30% 80.0% (Percentage)
Global semiconductor sales growth YoY
70.0%
1,400 Philadelphia Semiconductor Index 25%
60.0%
1,200 20% 50.0%

1,000 15% 40.0%

30.0%
800 10%
20.0%
600 5% 10.0%

400 0% 0.0%
2013-09 2014-09 2015-09 2016-09 2017-09
-10.0%
200 -5%
-20.0%
0 -10% North America semiconductor equpiment sales YoY growth
2013-09 2014-05 2015-01 2015-09 2016-05 2017-01 2017-09 2018-05
Source: Wind info, WSTS, CICC Research Source: SEMI, CICC Research

8 inch (90nm-0.35um) mature processes: According to iHS, 2017 TSMC still leads the 8-inch
silicon foundry market with a share of 41%. According to SEMI, 8-inch wafer capacity has not
changed much from 2012–2014 levels, and some 8-inch factories have closed due to node
migration. Overall demand has fluctuated between 3.6mn and 4.3mn wafers per month, and
utilization rates are averaging 70–80%. Eight-inch wafer capacity has increased since 2015, and
was up about 7% in 2017 from 2015. Demand has grown since 4Q15 on: 1) short supply of
upstream 8-inch silicon wafers; 2) growing demand for MCU/PMIC in the mid-range and low end
segments; and 3) migration of power semiconductors to 8-inch factories. Tight global 8-inch
wafer supply and demand at end-2017 made it obvious 8-inch wafer ASPs would rise in 2018.

SUMCO says demand for 8” wafers is averaging 5.5–5.6mn units per month. Worldwide, there
are now 194 8-inch wafer fabs with monthly capacity of about 5.5mn wafers (including IDM).
Equipment shortages make it difficult to add capacity. We believe supply and demand will
remain tight until 2019, boosting ASPs in the short term. But in the long run, supply-chain
tightness is likely to exacerbate a double-booking issue of 8-inch products, and increasing
inventory levels at OEMs is a risk.

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 CICC Research: October 16, 2018

Figure 10: Global 8-inch supply and demand

6,000 2015-2017 capacity increase~7%

(kwpm)

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
8-inch demand 8-inch capacity

Source: SEMI, CICC Research

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Tel: (86-23) 6307-7088 Tel: (86-22) 2317-6188
Fax: (86-23) 6739-6636 Fax: (86-22) 2321-5079
Foshan Jihua 5th Road Branch Yunfu Xinxing Dongdi North Road Branch
12th Floor, Trend International Business Building 2nd Floor, Service Building C1, Wens Science &
2 Jihua 5th Road, Chancheng District Technology Garden, Dongdi North Road
Foshan 528000, P.R. China Xincheng Town, Xinxing County
Tel: (86-757) 8290-3588 Yunfu 527499, P.R. China
Fax: (86-757) 8303-6299 Tel: (86-766) 2985-088
Fax: (86-766) 2985-018
Ningbo Yangfan Road Branch Fuzhou Wusi Road Branch
11th Floor, Building Five, 999 Yangfan Road 38th Floor, Henglicheng Office Building
Hi-tech Industrial Development Zone No.128 Wusi Road, Gulou District
Ningbo 315103, P.R. China Fuzhou 350001, P.R. China
Tel: (86-574) 8907-7288 Tel: (86-591) 8625 3088
Fax: (86-574) 8907-7328 Fax: (86-591) 8625 3050
Hong Kong
China International Capital
Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited
29th Floor, One International Finance Centre
1 Harbour View Street
Central, Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 2872-2000
Fax: (852) 2872-2100
United Kingdom
China International Capital
Corporation (UK) Limited
Level 25, 125 Old Broad Street
London EC2N 1AR, United Kingdom
Tel: (44-20) 7367-5718
Fax: (44-20) 7367-5719
Shanghai Pudong New District Century Avenue
Branch
Unit 4609-14, 46th Floor, Phase II Shanghai IFC, No.8
Century Avenue,China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trande
Zone, Shanghai, 200120, P.R. China
Tel: (86-21) 5359-9800
Fax: (86-21) 2057-9488
Hangzhou Jiaogong Road Branch
1st Floor, Euro American Center
18 Jiaogong Road
Hangzhou 310012, P.R. China
Tel: (86-571) 8849-8000
Fax: (86-571) 8735-7743
Chengdu Binjiang Road (East) Branch
1st & 16th Floors, Shangri-La Center
Block 9B, Binjiang Road (East)
Chengdu 610021, P.R. China
Tel: (86-28) 8612-8188
Fax: (86-28) 8444-7010
Qingdao Middle Hongkong Road Branch
11th Floor, Shangri-La Center
Block 9, Hongkong Road (M), South District
Qingdao 266071, P.R. China
Tel: (86-532) 6670-6789
Fax: (86-532) 6887-7018
Dalian Gangxing Road Branch
16th Floor, Wanda Center
6 Gangxing Road, Zhongshan District
Dalian 116001, P.R. China
Tel: (86-411) 8237-2388
Fax: (86-411) 8814-2933
Changsha Chezhan Road (North) Branch
3rd Floor, Annex Building, Securities Tower
459 Chezhan Road (North), Furong District
Changsha 410001, P.R. China
Tel: (86-731) 8878-7088
Fax: (86-731) 8446-2455
Xi’an Yanta Branch
21th Floor, Capitaland West Tower,
No.64 Second Ring South Road West Section,
Yanta District, Xi'an 710065, P.R. China
Tel: (+86-29) 8648-6888
Fax: (+86-29) 8648-6868