Prometheus discounted cash flow analysis

Revenue growth

CY17A CY18A CY19F CY20F CY21F

Mobile A$m 159 208 271 325 357
Online A$m 99 105 107 110 113
Label # 1 1 1 1 1
Total A$m 257 313 378 435 470

116 119
110 113
107
105 432
99 325 357 393
208 271
159
CY17A CY18A CY19F CY20F CY21F CY22F CY23F

Label Online

Valuation summary

1,182
DCF A$m 1,182 14.3x
Transaction / trading comps A$m 660 11.0x
Blended valuation A$m 921 12.7x

DCF
CY22F CY23F CAGR
393 432
116 119
1 1
508 551 9.9%

1,182

921

660

DCF Transaction / trading Blended valuation

comps
Prometheus discounted cash flow analysis

Assumptions

Tax rate %
Valuation date
First FY
Time share
WACC
Terminal growth rate

Financials

Citi forecasts
A$m, Dec y/e CY19F CY20F CY21F CY22F CY23F
Mobile net revenue 271 325 357 393 432
Growth 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Online net revenue 107 110 113 116 119
Growth 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Total net revenue 378 435 470 508 551
Growth 20.8% 15.0% 8.1% 8.2% 8.3%
Operating costs (283) (326) (352) (381) (413)
EBITDA 94 109 117 127 138
Margin 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
D&A (4) (4) (4) (5) (5)
Growth 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
EBIT 91 105 113 123 133
Growth 15.1% 15.5% 8.2% 8.3% 8.4%

Cash flow items

Δ NWC (4) (5) (5) (6) (6)
% of sales (1.2%) (1.2%) (1.2%) (1.2%) (1.2%)
Capex (4) (4) (4) (5) (5)

Valuation

1 2 3 4 5
A$m, Dec y/e CY19F CY20F CY21F CY22F CY23F Terminal value
Revenue 378 435 470 508 551
EBITDA 94 109 117 127 138
% margin 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
Less D&A (4) (4) (4) (5) (5)
EBIT 91 105 113 123 133
Less tax on EBIT (29) (33) (36) (39) (43)
NOPAT 62 71 77 83 90
% margin 16.3% 16.3% 16.4% 16.4% 16.4%
Add D&A 4 4 4 5 5
Less capex (4) (4) (4) (5) (5)
Less Δ NWC (4) (5) (5) (6) (6)
Unlevered FCF 57 66 72 77 84
Unlevered FCF (timed) 35 66 72 77 84 1,325
Timing 0.31 1.31 2.31 3.31 4.31 4.31
Discount factor 0.97 0.89 0.82 0.75 0.69 0.69
DCF 34 59 59 58 58 914

Valuation
Discounted cash flows 268
Discounted TV 914
Enterprise value 1,182
CY18 EV / EBITDA 14.3x