BDO Unibank, Inc.

and BDO Nomura

Securities, Inc are the distributors of
this report in the Philippines. No part
of this material may be (i) copied,
photocopied, or duplicated in any
form, by any means; or (ii)
redistributed without the prior written
consent of BDO Unibank, Inc. and
BDO Nomura Securities. Inc. Nomura
has authorized BDO Unibank, Inc. and
BDO Nomura Securities. Inc to re
distribute this report in the
Philippines.
 FY20F FY21F FY22F
in PHPmn Previous New % change Previous New % change Previous New % change
Net sales 195,011 165,660 -15.1% 219,485 190,614 -13.2% 243,565 214,355 -12.0%
Gross profit 30,394 17,309 -43.1% 35,882 25,253 -29.6% 39,750 30,233 -23.9%
GPM 15.6% 10.4% -5.1% 16.3% 13.2% -3.1% 16.3% 14.1% -2.2%
EBITDA 17,790 13,116 -26.3% 19,498 21,657 11.1% 20,637 22,678 9.9%
EBITDA margin 9.1% 7.9% -1.2% 8.9% 11.4% 2.5% 8.5% 10.6% 2.1%
Operating profit 5,411 (2,335) -143.2% 6,768 5,692 -15.9% 7,341 6,037 -17.8%
OPM 2.8% -1.4% -4.2% 3.1% 3.0% -0.1% 3.0% 2.8% -0.2%
Net income 4,032 (3,113) -177.2% 4,836 3,881 -19.7% 5,555 4,528 -18.5%
NPM 2.1% -1.9% -3.9% 2.2% 2.0% -0.2% 2.3% 2.1% -0.2%
EPS 3.64 (2.81) -177.2% 4.37 3.51 -19.7% 5.02 4.09 -18.5%

in PHPmn 1Q19 1Q20 % chg

System-wide sales 54,278 55,151 1.6%
Company revenues
Philippines 29,437 26,750 -9.1%
International 11,068 12,931 16.8%
Eliminations (151) (248)
Total revenues 40,354 39,433 -2.3%
Cost of Sales 33,696 35,396 5.0%
Gross Profit 6,658 4,037 -39.4%
Opex + A&P 4,554 5,368 17.9%
EBITDA 5,409 2,044 -62.2%
Operating income 2,098 (1,331) -163.4%
Share in JV 6 9
Net interest expense (678) (690)
Others 294 194
Profit before tax 1,720 (1,818)
Taxes 366 256
Minority interests (107) (281)
Perpetual capital distribution - (665)
Headline net income 1,461 (1,792) -222.7%
Normalized net income 2,076 (2,195) -205.7%
Margins 1Q19 1Q20 bps chg
GPM 16.5% 10.2% (626)
EBITDA Margin 13.4% 5.2% (822)
OPM 5.2% -3.4% (857)
NPM (normalized) 5.1% -5.6% (1,071)
YTD store network FY19A 1Q20 chg
Philippines
Jollibee 1,195 1,200 5
Chowking 617 613 (4)
Greenwich 284 283 (1)
Red Ribbon 502 505 3
Mang Inasal 611 614 3
Burger King 105 106 1
Pho24 1 1 -
Panda Express 1 1 -
Total Philippines 3,316 3,323 7
International
China
Yonghe King 339 344 5
Hongzhuangyuan 42 39 (3)
Dunkin' Donuts 8 8 -
Total China 389 391 2
US
Jollibee 39 41 2
Red Ribbon 33 33 -
Chowking 15 15 -
Smashburger 301 298 (3)
Coffee Bean 1,173 1,165 (8)
Canada
Jollibee 9 9 -
Total North America 1,570 1,561 (9)
Asia Pacific ex China and PH -
Jollibee 169 171 2
SuperFoods - Highlands Coffee 401 405 4
SuperFoods - Pho24 38 39 1
SuperFoods - Hard Rock Café 6 2 (4)
Total Asia Pacific 614 617 3
Middle East
Jollibee 46 46 -
Chowking 33 33 -
Total Middle East 79 79 -
Oceania
Jollibee Guam 1 1 -
Europe
Italy 1 1 -
United Kingdom 1 1 -
Total international 2,655 2,651 (4)
Grand total (including Smash) 5,971 5,974 3
 Market cap Current price P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE (%) EPS growth (%)
Company Ticker (USDmn) Rating (LCY) FY20F FY21F FY20F FY21F FY20F FY21F FY20F FY21F
Jollibee Foods Corp. JFC PM 2,507 Neutral 116.10 n.m. 33.1 10.3 6.1 -4.6% 4.6% -150.4% n.m.
Century Pacific Food CNPF PM 1,062 Buy 15.24 14.5 13.4 8.9 8.1 18.0% 17.0% 18.2% 8.2%
Emperador Inc. EMP PM 2,444 Neutral 7.80 25.7 23.6 18.7 17.8 7.4% 7.8% -29.6% 8.7%
Puregold Price Club PGOLD PM 2,631 Buy 46.35 19.3 16.8 7.6 6.6 10.3% 10.8% 2.2% 15.0%
Robinsons Retail Holdings RRHI PM 2,097 Buy 67.75 29.3 25.4 6.7 5.9 5.0% 5.5% -10.0% 15.1%
San Miguel Food and Beverage FB PM 7,320 Buy 62.95 28.6 24.9 9.9 8.8 16.2% 18.8% -27.2% 14.9%
Shakey's Pizza Asia Ventures PIZZA PM 172 Buy 5.72 12.2 10.5 8.4 7.2 13.2% 14.0% -19.8% 16.4%
SSI Group SSI PM 71 Buy 1.10 5.8 5.2 3.3 2.9 5.3% 5.7% -26.9% 12.1%
Universal Robina Corp. URC PM 5,426 Buy 125.10 30.6 26.6 14.8 13.2 9.7% 10.6% -22.1% 15.1%
Wilcon Depot WLCON PM 1,247 Reduce 15.46 54.6 44.0 19.5 16.3 7.8% 9.2% -41.1% 24.0%
Average ex-JFC 24.5 21.2 10.9 9.6 10.3% 11.0% -17.4% 14.4%