Workshop on Structural Safety and

Infrastructure Management
Lloyd’s Register, London, 24th May 2017

Risk-informed Integrity Management of marine Structures

subject to Fatigue Deterioration
G. Zou1,2 *, K. Banisoleiman 1, A. González2 and M. H. Faber3
1Lloyd’s Register, 2UCD School of Civil Engineering , 3 AAU Department of Civil Engineering

*guang.zou@lr.org

Motivation
Mitigate failure risk and reduce inspection and maintenance costs
Significant uncertainties associated with wave loads and fatigue deterioration
Design assumptions usually cannot be fully satisfied during operation.
Risk-based inspection/monitoring provide actual structural performance and
support optimal decisions on operation and maintenance (Fig 1).

Fig 4 Decision-making model for inspection planning

Highlights
Hierarchical characteristics for different marine structures are identified and
generic requirements for risk-informed integrity management are concluded
(Fig 5).

Fig 1 Integrity management of ship structures

Ideas Fig 5 System representation for fatigue risk assessment

Stochastic modelling of fatigue deterioration is based on dynamic Bayesian Uncertainty associated with initial damage state a(0) is reduced by updating
networks (DBN) (Fig 2). prior distribution with a likelihood (Fig 7). A model is developed to construct
Probabilistic risk assessment facilitates consistent treatment of information the likelihood based on available S-N curves or test data (Fig 6).
collected through inspection/monitoring. 𝑎𝑐
1 𝑑𝑎
Bayesian decision theory facilitates quantification of the value of information 𝑁𝑆𝑁 = 𝑁𝐼 + 𝑁𝑃 =
𝜋𝑚 2 𝐶∆𝜎 𝑚 𝑚 2𝑌 𝑎 𝑚
𝑎𝐸𝐼𝐹𝑆 𝑎
which has not yet been collected (Fig 3).
Influence diagram serves as a strong tool for cost-optimal decision making on
inspection/monitoring and maintenance in face of uncertainty (Fig 4).

Fig 6 Model for 𝒂𝑬𝑰𝑭𝑺 Fig 7 Bayesian updating of a(0)

Fig 2 Stochastic modelling of fatigue crack growth based on DBN
The benefit of sampling inspection on structural systems are evaluated with
Bayesian networks. The potential harm of inspection results on decision are
studied with Bayesian decision theory.
Sequential optimal decisions and lifetime globally-optimal decisions are
investigated by use of DBN and optimization techniques (Fig 8).

Fig 3 Maximization the value of inspection Fig 8 Sequential decisions and global decisions (inspection number n=3)
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