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Bursawinners 15
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Bursa Winners
Winners 2008
Discover How You Can Become Rich During A Stock Market Crash
Bursa Winners
2008
How You Can Become Rich During A Stock Market Crash
No part of this e-book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means -
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The reports in this e-book contain the opinions and ideas of its author and are designed to
provide useful advice to the reader on the subject matter covered. They reflect his personal
views only, and not the views of anyone or any organisation which he may be affiliated to.
The strategies in these reports may not be suitable for every individual, and are not
guaranteed or warranted to produce any particular result. Any reference to any person,
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author strives to be as accurate and complete as possible in the creation of these reports but
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reading. All information provided here, including recommendations (if any), should be
treated as for information purposes only. The author should not be held liable for any
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Burse Winners
Copyright ©2008 by Andrew Chia, AndrewChia.com. All Rights Reserved.
Bursa Winners
2008
How You Can Become Rich During A Stock Market Crash
Version 1.5
Andrew Chia
"Bursa Winners is a comprehensive guide for anyone who aspires to be a stock market
investor in Bursa Malaysia. You can't go wrong with this book."
Eric Chong
Galaxy Connections
“Andrew cuts and trims stock market intelligence to its barest and goes right to the core
strategies without taking cutting any corners. It solves all the problems that most beginners
like me face in our journey to stock market success. This book is unique."
Tung Tung
Fashion Consultant, Quinn Marketing
"The ideas in Bursa Winners are so deceptively simple that you enjoy re-reading it many
times just fully grasp the wisdom of the world's richest investors.
Caroline Chong
CEO, Canhill Tours & Travel
"Bursa Winners contains bite-sized stock market intelligence. A great help for busy people
like me."
YC Liaw
Banker
"Very provocative. You cannot read this e-book without benefitting from some new and
valuable insight."
Joanna Chey
Rejoice Care Centre
"Some of the information in Bursa Winners is compelling and soul-searching. Like the parts
on money management and emotional control..."
Don Hor
Marketing Director, Pacific Carbon Sdn Bhd
"Read this e-book first before you invest in the stock market."
Christopher Heng, D Sc
Auditor
"These e-reports cover a big portion of what we need to know about basic stock investing
skills."
Rickson Thean
Accounts Manager
"Reading this e-book is quite an exciting experience. The principles are rock solid and
delivered in crystal-clear terms. It is really relevant in educating would-be investors on the
basics of generating wealth from the stock market."
Saranjeet Singh
Charity Resources
"If there were one pill that could make us a stock market veteran overnight, that pill would be
Bursa Winners."
Bryan Choong
Senior Property Negotiator
"Andrew Chia deserves my respect for arranging such an innovative document in a read-
less-learn-more presentation. He has done a good job in arranging powerful stock investing
concepts in very small helpings suitable for beginners."
Kanicen
Internet Marketing guru
"The information contained in the first chapter alone is worth a hundred times the price of
this book."
Aziz Kudah
Senior Technician, Telekom Malaysia
"Bursa Winners is a must-read book if you are looking for information on how to invest in the
stock market. It shortens your learning curve by a great deal."
Richard Ng
Agency Manager, Great Eastern Life
To,
Kenneth Chia
CONTENTS
Introduction
Introduction
1. The Dow Jones surpassed 14,000 points in late 2007. Today, about a year
later, it is struggling to stay above 8,000 points. That is a drop of more than
40%. Generally, if you had $1,000,000 in shares a year ago, you would have
lost $400,000. If you had shares in the financial sector you may have lost
more than $700,000.
2. A big secret is that true investors make more money in bad markets. This is
not limited to the stock market but to all markets, including property or
commodities like crude oil, for example. About six months ago, crude oil
was on the verge of breaching the $150 per barrel mark. Today, it is broken
the southern limit of $50 a barrel.
If you have bought at the peak, your $1,000,000 investment would have been
reduced to $600,000.
Conversely, if you have bought something at $50 and sold for it $150, your
$1,000,000 you would have become $3,000,000. You make you a clean profit
of $2,000,000.
This e-book is not for the average investor who just wishes to learn some
stock strategies.
If you lack the hunger for success and are too lazy to do homework before
investing, you should stick back to the easy way of looking for the best
investing tips from the most "reliable" sources.
If you are willing to work hard to master the skill of stock investing, this e-
book with its reports, will be of great help to you in extracting and compiling
the performance of the best companies in Malaysia. You will still need to do
more homework especially in understanding the business, marketing,
economic and political climate, and the cashflow of the companies you wish
to invest in.
Success seldom comes easy, but I assure you that you will be thoroughly and
deservedly rewarded for your efforts. You will soon be on your way to
financial independence and a fat bank account.
5. Robert Kiyosaki (RK), "The best investors get interested in companies when
their share prices go down."
Ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_books
6. People who trained their minds to see money had tremendous power over
those who didn't. - RK
7. Investing is like flying; after flight school and years of experience it's fun,
not risky. - RK
8. Investing does not require high IQ but it does need a lot of common sense.
Unfortunately, when it comes to money common sense is uncommon. - RK
9. The Government in the US has mismanaged big time. Promises made sixty
years ago cannot be kept. - RK. In recent times, the markets appear really
gloomy. This may be due to the bubbles, which had been created much
earlier, starting to burst now. And it certainly looks as if the current
markets will be bearish for some time.
10. A little history of stock market crashes - The Great Depression in 1929,
"Tulipomania" crash 1610, "South Seas Bubble" meltdown 1620, "Junk Bond"
bombshell 1990. What we need to pay attention to is that every stock
market crash transfers wealth from the poor to rich.
11. Financial freedom is found in the stock market. That is why Benjamin
Graham advised us to invest not less than 25% of our total funds in the stock
market. However, we should not have more than 75% of our total funds in
the stock market.
(Benjamin Graham was Warren Buffett's teacher. He wrote the classic book
The Intelligent Investor (TII). On the cover of the book, Warren Buffett
wrote, "By far the best book on investing ever written.")
Ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Graham
13. More than 90% of people want to get rich, but less than 10% will do anything
about it.
14. You have got to work at it to become rich. It takes a bit of time to do
homework. The heights by great men reached and kept were not attained
by sudden flight. But they, while their companions slept, were toiling
upward in the night. - Sir Winston Churchill
15. In this set of stock market reports, you will find out what 90% of the people
on this planet don't know and will never find out about stock investing.
16. Stock investment is not based on luck. You can calculate your chances and
control your own destiny. On the other hand, buying a lottery is. Robert
Allen says, "Lotteries are for people who are bad at mathematics."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_G._Allen_(author)
17. Allow your judgment to be swayed by the facts, figures and numbers that
you will find in these reports. As you run through them I believe you will be
affected by the "Oh..." factor. You will slowly form a correct opinion about
companies with strong performances measured by track record and real
numbers of dividends, earnings per share growth, return on equity, debt
equity ratios, cashflow and others.
You will begin to see patterns emerging. For example, you may find that the
businesses run by some of Malaysia's richest men all have the same high
dividends, EPS, ROE and low debt equity ratios. You may be surprised to see
the striking similarities as you start to understand good business
management and practice. You will feel your mouth watering as the desire
to own a piece of such businesses well up in you.
18. It is not my intention to form any opinion for you but rather to inform you on
the criteria and tools used by the world's greatest investors. I believe that
with these criteria and tools coupled with unbiased, third party guides, you
will form your own correct opinion.
19. We make money by separating facts from opinions. Facts and opinions:
there are few lessons more important than this. - RK
Most people struggle financially because they use opinions when making
financial decisions. - RK
Due diligence-finding out what are opinions and what are facts. - RK
Numbers tell the facts. Your financial survival depends on it. - RK. In the
stock market, numbers mean things like annual reports and financial
statements, actual dividend figures, ratios, and historical charts.
If you can read financial statements you can tell how an individual or a
business is doing.
20. The strategies outlined in these e-reports are based almost entirely, but not
solely, on Warren Buffett's style of investing. There is a certain level of
influence from local experts like Ho Kok Mun who wrote How To Make Money
From Your Stock Investment Even In The Falling Market.
I have chosen WB's strategies of stock investment because they have been
time-tested by his forty-five years of success.
The other compelling reason for adopting his strategies, instead of other
more popular strategies, is that they have made him the richest man on the
planet, with a personal net worth of about $60 billion currently.
A single share in his company, Berkshire Hathaway, sells for about $100,000
($150,000 at its peak). This means that you need to have $10 million in
order to invest in just one lot of his company's shares!
Ref:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=indu
&time=&freq=
Ref:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=indu
&time=&freq=
There has been no shortage of investors who think they are smarter or
possess better investment strategies than WB, but the fact remains that the
man is still the richest on this planet.
If you are in doubt, let me reassure you that WB's strategies can be applied
in other parts of this world, particularly in Malaysia. And you don't need to
be as smart, or have as much capital as him for his strategies to work. This
is because his strategies are based on principles of wealth that are as old as
the hills.
21. The figures found in these reports are all extracted from Dynaquest's Stock
Performance Guide (SPG) for Main Board companies and their Second Board
Guide (SBG) for Second Board companies. Dynaquest is the company which
compiles financial data for all companies listed on the stock exchange in
Malaysia. (Dynaquest.com.my)
You are advised to purchase at least the SPG so that you may be able to
make informed decisions pertaining to your stock investments. It is
currently selling at only RM70 and is available at all leading bookstores.
You should also double-check the author's figures and calculations pertaining
to a specific share you wish to invest in, to ensure they are correct and
accurate before you put in your hard-earned funds.
Andrew Chia
Kuala Lumpur
December 2008
Report 1
Best dividend stocks listed on Bursa Malaysia 2008
This stock investment strategy or criterion should be read together with other criteria, including but not
restricted to, Dividends, Return on Equity (ROE), Net Tangible Assets, Earnings per share growth rate
(EPS GR), Cashflow statement, Dynaquest Star Rating, Industry, Gross profit margin, Net profit margin,
Debt Equity (DE) Ratio and Price Earnings (PE). You should never assume that stocks that meet this
criterion automatically deserve your attention, or vice-versa.
1. WB, "I never attempt to make money in stock market; I buy on the
assumption they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for
five years."
On 7-1-1973, Alan Greenspan made his wrongest prediction about the stock
market. He said that 1973 was going to be the greatest bull year. It turned
out that 1973 and 1974 were the worst years for the stock market since the
Great Depression in 1929.
Alan Greenspan was Federal Reserve Chairman from 1987 to 2006. During his
regime, he was believed to be the most powerful financial man in the world.
Now, if a man of his stature could be so wrong, it serves as a solemn lesson
for us never to attempt to predict the market. Instead, we should prepare
for whatever the market is capable of doing.
3. Once a market has crashed, it will not recover in less than 5 to 10 years. - RK.
4. Analysts do not analyze businesses, only future stock prices. That is one of
the main reasons why they often turn out to be wrong.
7. If you worry about protecting your account from harm first, the rest takes
care of itself.
8. Discount backwards for 45 years, and you will find that Warren Buffett's
fortune of more than $50 billion today started with less than $5 million.
12. Do not make the mistake of looking at the latest year's dividends. Instead,
take an average of 10 years' dividends. In the US, WB takes an average of 20
years.
14. However, we need still need to be careful when looking at 10-year averages.
This is because there are companies who may pay a high dividend in one year
(perhaps ten years ago), and declare much lower dividends subsequently.
(Ref: AZRB).
That is why I strongly advise you to have a copy of the SPG with you at all
times if you want to be a serious investor.
15. Shares that give capital gains are dividend shares. Most people buy shares
wanting to make a "killing", ie. they go for capital gains. The secret is that
dividend stocks are the ones that eventually give you the highest capital
gains. (Think Public Bank.) Patience is a virtue.
16. Focus on dividends and you will get your capital gains, focus on capital gains
and you may get roasted and become a statistic in Bursa Malaysia.
17. Blue chip companies used to last 65 years, now lasting only 10. - RK
Doing research, once, before buying a share could be the source of a huge
stream of residual income which may last a very long time.
20. If one does not have residual income he is actually in danger of losing a lot.
This is because sometimes our stream of earned income may dry up. For
example, our money-making project or business may have been completed.
Or, worse still, our business may have to close shop. When this happens,
and a stream of income is wiped out, it may take years for one to recover.
http://andrewchia.com/FinalWinner
21. Without financial freedom, we will not have time freedom. The more
successful Poor Dad was, the less time he had for his family.
22. Old Chinese saying: "The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago; the
second best time is now." Think about this. If you invest for dividends, you
may take many years to be financially independent or to be rich. But once
you have residual income, not only you do not need to work; your children,
and perhaps, grandchildren, may not need to work.
23. A defensive investor (one that goes for dividends) runs and wins the race by
sitting still.
Once our account has grown in size we will find that we are just spending
part of the dividends without touching our capital, which continues to grow.
We will then be financially independent forever.
25. Your direction is more important than your speed. Most people study a
hundred ways to make money from the stock market. They read financial
books and crunch financial data at a breakneck speed. Unfortunately, they
sometimes read the wrong books. Or, they may be reading the right books,
but their speed ensures that they do not get the right message. The answer
to successful stock investing lies simply in dividends.
26. That is why WB can say, "My favourite holding period is forever." With high
dividend-yielding stocks you have nothing to worry about; you keep receiving
lucrative income year after year. And you may keep doing that regardless of
how bad an economy is doing!
29. I have omitted high dividend yielding stocks for companies on Bursa Malaysia
with less than 5.5 stars as valued by Dynaquest. The total number of
companies with 5.5 stars or more, is more than a hundred. I feel that this
number represents a good pool of companies to choose from. Please refer to
the report on "Dynaquest's best performers on Bursa Malaysia" for further
information on their rating summary.
Report 2
Best EPS growth rate stocks listed on Bursa Malaysia
This stock investment strategy or criterion should be read together with other criteria including but not
restricted to, Dividends, Return on Equity (ROE), Net Tangible Assets, Earnings per share growth rate
(EPS GR), Cashflow statement, Dynaquest Star Rating, Industry, Gross profit margin, Net profit margin,
Debt Equity (DE) Ratio and Price Earnings (PE). You should never assume that stocks that meet this
criterion automatically deserve your attention, and vice-versa.
1. EPS is the company's entire profits or earnings for the year divided by
number of shares.
2. EPS GR measures how a company's earnings grow over a long period of time,
say, 10 years at least. This will give an indication of how they will grow over
the next 10 years. This criterion is used by Warren Buffett. However, he
only chooses companies with at least 20 years of history.
3. A strong EPS growth in a recent year is not good enough; we need a company
whose growth has been stable, preferably increasing, over the last ten years.
Thus, the chances of a company continuing its growth trend are higher.
5. I have omitted companies with less than ten years of dividend track record.
6. I have omitted companies that have a dividend track record averaging less
than 2%, over a period ten years or more.
7. I have omitted companies with less than 6 stars as valued by Dynaquest. The
total number of companies with 6 stars or more is about a hundred. I feel
that this number represents a good pool of companies to choose from.
Please refer to the report on "Dynaquest's best performers on Bursa Malaysia"
for further information on their rating summary.
8. Through this process of elimination, there are still about sixty companies left
in this report.
I believe these are the companies that you should be focusing on in order to
create wealth from Bursa Malaysia.
The more consistent the growth, the more reliable its valuation and future
price forecasts would be. On the other hand, inconsistent EPS performance
casts doubts on its price valuations later on (in Report #6 Stock valuation of
the best companies listed on Bursa Malaysia). For some companies, growth
may even be negative at times. And this may cause our formula for
calculating valuation to break down.
For this reason, investors are always reminded not to overly rely on EPS GR
and the subsequent price valuation calculated based on EPS GR. Other
factors such as the business itself, the industry, dividends, ROE, NTA (net
tangible assets) or even DE ratio should take precedence over EPS GR.
10. WB - The first rule of investing is, don't lose money. The second rule says to
remember the first rule. Investing in high EPS GR companies can help ensure
that we follow WB's rules of investing.
12. Margin of safety means buying a stock at 2/3 of its intrinsic value.
13. What is intrinsic value? This value is tied closely to a company's earnings, or
EPS. We need to look into a company's growth rate in terms of EPS.
14. A lot of people want to know how to value a share. WB says it is more
difficult to identify a good company. The valuation part is easy.
15. Once WB buys a good company's shares, his favourite holding period is
"forever". Besides dividends, the next most important thing about a
company could be its earnings growth.
17. TII: Buy companies with at least 1/3 increase in EPS for the past 10 years.
Report 3
Best return-on-equity stocks listed on Bursa Malaysia
This stock investment strategy or criterion should be read together with other criteria including but not
restricted to, Dividends, Return on Equity (ROE), Net Tangible Assets, Earnings per share growth rate
(EPS GR), Cashflow statement, Dynaquest Star Rating, Industry, Gross profit margin, Net profit margin,
Debt Equity (DE) Ratio and Price Earnings (PE). You should never assume that stocks that meet this
criterion automatically deserve your attention, and vice-versa.
For example, if you invest a million dollars to start a business and you get a
ROE of 10%, you will recover your capital invested in just ten years. On the
other hand, if your ROE is only 5%, you will only get back your capital
invested in twenty years.
3. An ROE of more than 10% is attractive. Even a 6-7% return can be tempting.
But we see many Bursa Malaysia companies performing lower than that.
Therefore, it doesn't make much sense investing in companies like that.
4. For ROE we take only the latest year's performance. One of the reasons is
that we do not have the historical figures listed in Dynaquest's report.
5. As such, this ROE criterion must be read together with other important
criteria like dividends, EPS growth rate, cashflow and debt equity ratio in
order to get a clearer picture on what is a good Bursa company to invest in.
6. I have omitted ROE stocks for companies on Bursa Malaysia with less than 6
stars as valued by Dynaquest. The total number of companies with 6 stars or
more is about a hundred. I feel that this number represents a good pool of
companies to choose from. Please refer to the report on "Dynaquest's best
performers on Bursa Malaysia" for further information on their rating
summary.
Report 4
Dynaquest's best performers on Bursa Malaysia
This stock investment strategy or criterion should be read together with other criteria including but not
restricted to, Dividends, Return on Equity (ROE), Net Tangible Assets, Earnings per share growth rate
(EPS GR), Cashflow statement, Dynaquest Star Rating, Industry, Gross profit margin, Net profit margin,
Debt Equity (DE) Ratio and Price Earnings (PE). You should never assume that stocks that meet this
criterion automatically deserve your attention, and vice-versa.
1. Dynaquest Sdn Bhd, based in Penang, is the company that publishes the
Stock Performance Guide for Main Board companies as well as the KLSE
Second Board Guide for Second Board companies.
3. This report is a listing of Dynaquest's companies with 6* and more. There are
almost 100 companies that meet this criterion.
4. We should not assume that all of these companies are good for investment.
6. There could be many companies with 5* or less which are worth investing in.
7. This could be because Dynaquest's rating system does not give high
weightage to track record, but rather current performances.
For example, HOVID has got only three years of track record but have been
awarded 7* in 2007, which is relatively high. (It was subsequently
downgraded to 4.5* in 2008.) There are many companies with only about 5
years track record that have been rated 6* or more.
8. Having worked in a bank before, I tend to believe that track record is a very
important criterion in appraising a company's future performance. Banks
will usually not give a business loan to any company with less than three
years of track record.
9. It is not likely, though possible, that companies that are rated less than 5*
that will turn out to be winners within say, five years.
10. One of the criteria for companies that Warren Buffett invests in is big, good
companies with sound management.
In 2006, there was only one company rated 8* in the Second Board, ie.
TIENWAH. (It was subsequently transferred to the Main Board.) There were
no 7* rated companies. There were four 6* rated companies. There were
numerous companies rated 1*, 2* or U (Unclassified).
For this reason, I have omitted Second Board companies completely from my
list of stocks short listed for your consideration.
Report 5
Best capital gains stocks listed on Bursa Malaysia 2008
This stock investment strategy or criterion should be read together with other criteria including but not
restricted to, Dividends, Return on Equity (ROE), Net Tangible Assets, Earnings per share growth rate
(EPS GR), Cashflow statement, Dynaquest Star Rating, Industry, Gross profit margin, Net profit margin,
Debt Equity (DE) Ratio and Price Earnings (PE). You should never assume that stocks that meet this
criterion automatically deserve your attention, and vice-versa.
2. One who goes for capital gains is usually a trader. Although there is nothing
wrong with being a trader, an investor receives residual income whereas a
trader's income is linear.
If you are not sure what linear income is, it means you earn money each
time you do work. Residual income means you do work once and receive
income many times after that.
4. The market is full of average investors driven by greed who will not
understand this. Their failure to grasp the concept of residual income means
that they only go for capital gains. That is the reason why most "investors"
fail and lose miserably in the stock market. They are not investors in the
first place.
5. As we refer to the companies with the best capital gains in Malaysia, we find
that many companies with high capital gains also give high dividend yields.
Report 6
Highest returns stocks listed on Bursa Malaysia 2008
This stock investment strategy or criterion should be read together with other criteria including but not
restricted to, Dividends, Return on Equity (ROE), Net Tangible Assets, Earnings per share growth rate
(EPS GR), Cashflow statement, Dynaquest Star Rating, Industry, Gross profit margin, Net profit margin,
Debt Equity (DE) Ratio and Price Earnings (PE). You should never assume that stocks that meet this
criterion automatically deserve your attention, and vice-versa.
1. This report shows the best companies in Malaysia with the highest combined
dividend yields and capital gains for a period of more than ten years.
Report 7
Stock valuation of the best companies listed on Bursa Malaysia
2008
This stock investment strategy or criterion should be read together with other criteria
including but not restricted to, Dividends, Return on Equity (ROE), Net Tangible Assets,
Earnings per share growth rate (EPS GR), Cashflow statement, Dynaquest Star Rating,
Industry, Gross profit margin, Net profit margin, Debt Equity (DE) Ratio and Price Earnings
(PE). You should never assume that stocks that meet this criterion automatically deserve
your attention, and vice-versa.
1. We know the drill - be greedy when others are fearful. We should be buying
when a market is crashing. But what do we buy? At what price do we buy?
2. With the above reports I hope you have a good idea as to what to buy.
There is no such thing as good or bad stocks, only cheap or expensive stocks.
Investors and traders alike, if they do not have a good idea what their
entry price should be, their success will be greatly hampered.
4. Most people, including seasoned traders, struggle for decades because they
cannot understand price, let alone value. How embarrassing it is for anyone
who cannot answer such a seemingly simple question, "What is price?"
Traders who cannot give a clear definition of price do not know what they
are analyzing. A trader's success or failure depends on handling prices. He
had better know what they mean. Most of the time he doesn't! (Note that I
refer to traders and not investors.)
The following statements serve to show the utter confusion in the market
place.
• Price is what a person at one particular point in time is willing to pay another
person for a commodity.
• Price is what the last person paid for it. That's the price right now.
• Transmile was selling at RM15 one day and a few months later its price was
RM1.50.
• There is no such thing as no buyer. There is always a bid and and an ask.
• The company that issued the stock has value, cash flow. (You see, even cash
flow comes into the picture.)
To understand price, we need to first of all know that there are three groups
of traders in the market: buyers, sellers and the undecided traders. "Ask" is
what the seller wants. "Bid" is what the buyer wants. Buyers and sellers are
always in conflict. Buyers want to buy as low as possible. Sellers want to
sell as high as possible. If these two groups insist on having their own way,
no trade can take place. No trade means no price - only wishful quotes of
buyers and sellers.
A seller can wait for prices to rise, or accept a lower offer. A buyer can wait
for prices to come down, or accept a higher offer. A trade occurs when
there is a momentary meeting of two minds: an eager bull agrees to a
seller's terms, or an eager bear agrees to a buyer's terms. The presence of
undecided traders puts pressure on both bulls and bears.
Each blink on your online broker's screen represents a deal between a buyer
and a seller. Buyers buy because they are expecting prices to rise. Sellers
sell because they are expecting prices to fall. Buyers and sellers trade while
surrounded by crowds of undecided traders who may become buyers or
sellers as prices change or as time passes.
5. Investors are different from traders. They focus on value instead of price.
6. Investors go for dividends and think long term. Traders buy low and sell high
for a profit, they usually think short term.
8. The buying prices found in this report are calculated based on value. (This
strategy is also known as value investing.)
10. Another word of caution: some companies show consistency and gradual
increase in EPS GR; some show erratic growth. EPS GR for each company
needs to be scrutinized. That is why every stock investor should have a
Dynaquest guide for reference.
The more consistent the growth, the more reliable its valuation and future
price forecasts would be. On the other hand, inconsistent EPS performance
casts doubts on its price valuations. For some companies, growth may even
be negative at times. And this may cause our formula for calculating
valuation to break down.
For this reason, investors are always reminded not to over-rely on EPS GR
and the subsequent price valuation calculated based on EPS GR. Other
factors such as the business itself, the company's management, the industry,
dividends, ROE or even DE ratio should take precedence over EPS GR.
11. WB says that finding great companies is never easy; it takes time and effort.
Determining the value is easy. However, almost all the stock investment
books do not give you examples on how to calculate the value for a stock.
Even The Intelligent Investor does not help you do that. Coupled with the
powerful but rather vague idea of intrinsic value (which some mistake for
NTA), an investor is now has the full knowledge of how stock investment
works, but is left without the last piece of the puzzle! You would not be
surprised to see a lot of bald stock investors because they keep tearing their
hair out.
In fact, some investors are so frustrated that they claim that nobody on the
planet knows how to calculate intrinsic value. It is just a novel idea.
No, that is not true. Warren Buffett is indeed right. In fact, the method is
described in TII, just that the actual calculation is not shown. It is a simple
discounted cashflow method. Perhaps the author thought it is too simple,
that he left it out? Perhaps he intentionally left it out so that people would
focus more on the business rather than on some "formula" for success? We
do not know.
But what we do know is that a local boy by the name of Ho Kok Mun, who is
a qualified engineer, has revealed the actual calculation in his best-selling
book, How To Make Money From Your Stock Investment Even In The Falling
Market.
I made use of this formula to calculate and put a price tag on each of our
short-listed companies' shares in this report. The formula is attached
together for you so that you may use it to calculate any stock on Bursa
Malaysia by just inserting the relevant figures into the spreadsheet.
(Allow me to give you a word of caution, though. Some people may not
agree with his method of calculation. It may not be accurate, or even
correct, depending on whom you ask.)
12. WB's two important rules: (1) Never lose money, (2) Never forget Rule No. 1,
form the basis of stock valuation.
13. Investing means building a 30,000 lb bridge and driving only a 10,000 lb truck
across it.
14. 43 years after reading "margin of safety" WB still thinks those are the three
right words.
18. The higher the price you pay, the lower your return. - TII
19. Your profit is made when you buy, not when you sell. - RK. It took me a lot
of meditation to understand this statement. If I'm not mistaken, I think it
simply means that the amount of homework you have done has determined
the correct asset and its value. If you buy it at anything less than that value
you would definitely make a profit.
20. One of the meanings of "margin of safety" is - less than 2/3 of net asset value
and cheap PE.
21. WB: My favourite holding period is forever. You can only do that if you have
bought at the right price.
22. WB puts heavy weight on certainty; the idea of a risk factor does not make
any sense to him.
Tolerance for risk is defined as how much time and energy you put into your
portfolio. This is one of the most common and serious mistakes made by
most financial consultants who are too lazy to do their homework.
They keep propagating this idea of risk tolerance (translated as "how much
money can you stand losing") to their clients. And they are happy that they
seldom meet with any resistance because most of their clients either
ignorant or gullible, or both. In any case, they are too lazy to analyse
anything. It is just too difficult. They leave it to their unit trust or financial
consultants, who are in fact, salesmen.
(Warren Buffett says that Wall Street is the only place on earth where
people in Rolls Royce take advice from people who use the subway. He is
referring to consultants working for big firms like Merill Lynch or Morgan
Stanley.)
People's tolerance for risk is founded on emotion. That is why the concept is
basically and totally wrong.
How much risk you can bear does not depend on age. This is also
perpetrated by many financial consultants. To me, it is just ridiculous that
your age has anything at all to do with how much money you are willing to
lose.
Look in the mirror - that is risk gazing back at you. You are your biggest
asset as well as your biggest enemy, depending on whether you do your
homework or not. - TII
Ensure your loss if your analysis turns out to be wrong. Proper budgetting
and money management will help you manage risks.
You do have control over the consequences of being wrong. Always invest
with this idea in mind, "What if everything I believed in is wrong?" Work your
way from there and you will be in full control of risks. This concept applies
not only to stocks, but to all other forms of investment.
24. Your comments, opinions and criticisms on these reports are welcome.
Please email me. If these reports have been helpful to you, do give me your
short testimonies and include the detail of which town you are living in.
25. If these reports have helped you create wealth from the stock market,
remember to give back to society and nature. One of the ways you can do
that is by visiting CharityMalaysia.com, a website I co-founded with my
buddies Saranjeet Singh and Dariff Din.
Report 8
Tips on investing in Bursa Malaysia for beginners and beyond
This stock investment strategy or criterion should be read together with other criteria
including but not restricted to, Dividends, Return on Equity (ROE), Net Tangible Assets,
Earnings per share growth rate (EPS GR), Cashflow statement, Dynaquest Star Rating,
Industry, Gross profit margin, Net profit margin, Debt Equity (DE) Ratio and Price Earnings
(PE). You should never assume that stocks that meet this criterion automatically deserve
your attention, and vice-versa.
1. We should have between 25% and 75% of our funds in stocks. This is one of
the first questions that an investor should ask.
2. You should not have more than 30% of your share account invested in one
single share.
4. The goal is to win big when you win, and lose small when you lose. - Soros
paraphrased. Therefore, budget your share account.
5. Stocks will gain 50% from lowest price and lose 33% from their highest price.
For example, when our KLCI goes from 1,000 points to 1,500 points, that is a
gain of 50%. But when it falls back from 1,500 to 1,000 points, that is
decline of only 33%. Most people don't know this simple arithmetic. Why?
That is because money is an emotional subject. Very smart people like Isaac
Newton can become blinded by emotions. We will have more on this topic
of emotional control later.
6. Limit the companies that you invest in to less than 20. If you have more
than that you may be asking for trouble.
7. Before you buy a share, prepare for your possible exit. You must be prepared
for the three possible scenarios. What would you do if after you buy, the
share price goes up, down or sideways?
If the price goes down, re-examine your analysis. Is there a problem with
the company or is there a problem with the market? If it is the company,
sell immediately. Do not hesitate. If it is the market, you should be ready
to buy more. That is where budgetting comes in.
If the price shoots up unexpectedly by say, 30% after you bought, you may
want to consider selling and buying back later if and when it drops back to
the same level you bought. Then again, you may not want to do anything if
you are looking at dividends.
11. WB, "A lot of great fortunes have been made by owning a single wonderful
business."
12. WB, "If you understand business you don't need to own very many of them."
13. Invest in businesses so simple that a moron can run. That is because
business can be a very complicated subject to understand, with many
variables.
15. Buying shares at NTA (net tangible asset) price may not be a sound
investment strategy. Some people do this. NTA measures how much a
company is worth on paper. However, NTA is just one of the criteria we
should look at.
17. One of the most basic definitions of a good business is good cashflow.
18. Cash from operations must grow steadily for the past 10 years.
19. Successful and well-managed companies usually have a low debt equity ratio.
WB, "When you combine ignorance and borrowed money, consequences can
get interesting." By ignorance, I think he means that people do not know
what the acceptable level of debt should be.
A company's long-term debt must be less than 50% of its total capital. This is
where a lot of seemingly good companies fail. They may not know it but
their debt situation - commonly known as gearing - is high. If any
unforeseen external event or events occur, they may be on their knees.
Even corporations like Lehman Brothers and General Electric have been
victims of this problem of high gearing. General Electric went a-begging to
WB who bailed them out with an investment of $5 billion, with many strings
attached, of course.
The success of Tan & Tan, the developer of Mid Valley, may also be
attributed to prudent management. Only 35% of the total cost of
construction of Mid Valley was borrowed from banks. An average developer
borrows at least 70% of the construction cost.
One of the main reasons that caused the collapse of local banks in the not-
so-long-ago Asian financial crisis in 1997 was the high gearing of the banks.
Too many unsecured loans were given out easily during the boom years prior
to that. Most banks did not have any second thoughts about giving business
loans to companies with gearing as high as 4 times. This eventually led to
the creation of Danaharta, our Malaysian version of "toxic debt".
Paying a low price means buying shares of a company with low PE.
You should be able to see the PE on your screen as it fluctuates with its
share price if you have an online broker. (If are a new investor and do not
have an online broker yet, just send me an email and I will introduce you to
my favourite broker, Hong Leong eBroking. They have the lowest brokerage
rates in the market.)
When you buy a share, its PE must not be more than 25 times, and 20 times
within the last 12 months.
There are many so-called investors who buy shares based solely on PE.
Buying companies with PE is a very good strategy, but we must not be lazy
and ignore our homework, that is, to properly evaluate a company's business.
The market is not going to allow you to pick its pocket just by calculating PE
ratio. A lot of investors have been reduced to a statistic in Bursa Malaysia
just by adopting this PE strategy.
Regarding PE, Benjamin Graham says that we should not take a single year's
earnings seriously.
21. Buy big sized companies, companies that are large, prominent and
conservatively financed.
22. Go for low-tech companies. WB does not invest in any high-tech companies.
He says he does not understand their business.
During the dotcom boom prior to 2000, people thought that IT stocks were
all that an investor should own. The Dow went from 12,000 in early 2000 to
7,000 in late 2002.
23. Go for companies with current ratio of two to one. Current ratio is current
assets divided by current liabilities. It indicates how liquid a company is. A
company with a current ratio of two to one means its current assets are
twice as much as its current liabilities.
24. Go for companies with strong consumer brands. These are positive signs for
a company - it has brand identity, it may even be a monopoly. These are
intangible assets and cannot be substituted.
25. Go for good companies that are currently facing scandals or have just taken
a beating. WB went for great companies like Coca Cola and Amex when they
were in temporary trouble, and their shares prices took a dive. He went in
big time with more than 30% of his total funds. Today, his company owns
about 10% of the Coca Cola business.
26. Invest in a business that you understand, that is, within your circle of
competence. This Circle of Competence concept is an important
cornerstone in WB's investment strategy. He never invests in anything
outside his scope of competence.
27. Invest in a share only if you are comfortable with not knowing its daily share
price. You can only do this if you are a long-term investor.
28. Watch for industries that are not fashionable or unloved; there may be
potential for big gains.
29. Be careful of industries that are cyclical. The steel industry is one of these
types of industries.
30. Airlines are a very competitive industry. There is not much customer loyalty.
Passengers usually choose the cheapest way to fly.
31. Avoid growth stocks; they are too uncertain and risky.
32. "Sin" stocks like gambling, liquor and cigarettes make a lot of profits.
Investors who have not yet graduated from such an outdated and wrong
concept stand in danger of losing their pants. People holding on to this
concept show a clear lack of financial intelligence.
34. Be aware of financial scams. They can come in many sizes and shapes.
Enron was once the seventh largest company in America. Accountants can
do gymnastics with figures. They are usually hired by corporate crooks who
scheme daily to punish and fleece the public for their ignorance and laziness.
35. Stay away from Wall Street if you want to make money. That is WB's advice.
It means that insiders possess only the illusion of knowledge, not the real
thing. The real thing is found in the track record of a company which goes
back ten or twenty years. As Dynaquest says, the past is a good indication of
the future.
36. Day trading is one of the best weapons invented for committing financial
suicide. Traders who have their eyes glued to their computer screens not
only suffer from eye problems and fatigue, they may even suffer from cancer
of the wallet.
37. Most CFAs (certified financial analysts) ignore Graham's teachings. Most
traders and investors today do not believe in WB's style of investing. More
often than not, his method of making money and holding forever is "too slow"
for them.
38. Be careful of blue chip companies - while the company is safer the market is
not.
39. Emotional control is critical for success in stock investing, or any other type
of investment for that matter. I hope that the following long list of tips will
help you in becoming an investor who has mastered the emotions of fear and
greed.
When Robert Kiyosaki got excited with his first investment venture, his logic
went out of the window. He could not analyse the deal because he got
emotional and greedy.
Making and losing money are emotional topics - the secret of success is to
learn to be emotionally neutral.
RK thinks the greatest cause of financial struggle is the fear of losing money.
Wounds will heal in about 12 years; after that markets will peak again. - RK
By discipline and courage we refuse to let others' mood swings govern our
financial destiny - TII
You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you.
Be fearful when others are greedy; be greedy when others are fearful.
WB, "If you cannot control your emotions you cannot control your money."
Successful investing does not require high IQ, unusual business insights or
inside information. - TII
Many people have vision, but not everyone has sustainable faith and courage.
- RK
This is because when they see their clients making money from "good" tips
they cannot resist the temptation to follow. It also underlines the fact that
emotions alone can determine the eventual success or failure in an investor's
life.
The ultimate winner not only has superb knowledge and money management
skills; he is above all, an emotionally stable person.
41. Should you need more reading material in the areas of financial intelligence
and emotional control, my e-book membership The Final Winner will be of
help to you.