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DEVELOPMENT OF PAVEMENT TEMPERATURE REGRESSION MODELS AT

GHADAMIS, LIBYA

Conference Paper · June 2016

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 DEVELOPMENT OF PAVEMENT TEMPERATURE REGRESSION MODELS AT GHADAMIS, LIBYA

DEVELOPMENT OF PAVEMENT TEMPERATURE REGRESSION

MODELS AT GHADAMIS, LIBYA
Hassan Awadat Salem1
Bojan Matić1
Milan Marinković1
1
University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Technical Sciences, Department of Civil Engineering and Geodesy, Trg
Dositeja Obradovića 6 21000 Novi Sad, has712002@yahoo.co.uk; bojanm@uns.ac.rs;
milan.marinkovic@uns.ac.rs;

Abstract: This paper presents a part of the research undertaken to develop models to predict high and low asphalt
pavement temperatures in the Libya. A pavement monitoring station was set-up at several locations in Libya, to monitor
air and pavement temperatures at different depths, wind speed and solar radiation. Daily minimum and maximum
temperatures were recorded. Regression analysis was used to develop models for maximal daily pavement surface
temperature at four layers of pavement at Ghadamis Libya, using maximal daily air temperature, day of the year, wind
speed and solar radiation as predictors. Several criteria are used for selection of the best model.

Keywords: Pavement temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, regression, model selection, Mallow's Cp, adjusted.

1. INTRODUCTION

Increase in the temperature of asphalt layer is one of the major factors of failure in asphalt pavements in
desert zones. In these areas, high air temperature and severe radiation of solar ray cause increase in
asphalt layer temperature. In this condition, loads made by wheels of heavy vehicles produce vertical strains
caused by compression force and would cause rutting in the wheel path and bleeding in the asphalt surface.
Moreover skid resistance of asphalt pavement surface decreases with increase in temperature and this will
reduce the safety of road (Bazlamit, 2005). By considering the asphalt mix components exposed to
increasing temperature, detecting the effective factors in increasing asphalt layer’s temperature and finally,
choosing the major factors we could develop a regression model that predicts the asphalt temperature in
various depths by different given parameters.
Asphalt cement in asphalt mixtures has complicated viscoelastic and thermo-plastic behavior that depends
on loading duration and temperature. It is not possible to consider an elastic modulus, like cement concretes
mixes that is determined by compressive strength test, for asphalt concretes mixes. Other modulii like
Resilient modulus (MR), Dynamic modulus (|E*|) and Stiffness modulus (Sb) are developed for asphalt
concrete, considering viscoelastic, viscoplastic and thermo-plastic behavior of mixture. The resilient modulus
is a basic input for most of the mechanistic designs and is an objective for the mechanistic evaluation
procedures. The determination of the resilient modulus requires an expensive setup of testing equipment
and great expertise on the part of practitioners that might not be readily available for most of the field
condition. The development of a regression formula that can be used to correlate the resilient properties of
local asphalt mixes to basic material properties, with acceptable accuracy, is of great benefit.
Research on temperature distribution in asphalt pavements has been carried out in many different countries
and climatic areas, such as United States, Australia, Saudi Arabia and South Africa (Al-Albdul Wahhab,
1994, 2001; Nazarian and Alvarclo, 2006; Chiasson et al., 2008). In some of these researches the models of
temperature prediction of pavement have been developed by considering, similar parameters. Al-Albdul
Wahhab and Balghunain (1994) conducted a research in which he measured the pavement temperature in a
land and a coastal area in Saudi Arabia. In this research for considering the effect of pavement layer’s
thickness on distribution of the temperature in depth, different thicknesses were studied. The result of the
research, in addition to providing a profile of temperature distribution in pavement and a profile of annual
changes in the pavement temperature, was a temperature prediction model based on the air temperature
and depth. In the same line of argumentation, in 2001, prediction model of resilient modulus was developed.
In the model, in addition to the temperature, the softening point and the surface area of aggregates were
considered as independent variables (Al-Albdul Wahhab, 2001).
In Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP) and especially in Long-Term Pavement Performance
project, BELLS model (first letters of researchers’ names) was developed for predicting the pavement’s
temperature. In this model, pavements temperature in a given depth is predictable through parameters such
as temperature of the asphalt surface, depth, mean temperature of the last five days and time of the day
(Marshal et al., 2001). In 1994 after wider research and use of the data from more weather stations the
model was slightly corrected and was presented by the name of BELLS2. In the corrected model, the mean
1
Hassan Awadat Salem : has712002@yahoo.co.uk

1
Hassan Awadat Salem, Bojan Matić, Milan Marinković

temperature of the earlier day was used instead of the mean temperature of earlier 5 days. Time of day was
also defined by discrete ranges and determined relations (Lukanen et al., 2000). Using a two-dimensional,
transient finite-difference approach, in 2005, Yavuzturk assessed the temperature fluctuations in asphalt
pavements (Yavuzturk et al., 2005).
Furthermore as a result of a research in Virginia two models was developed and validated for predicting the
daily maximum and minimum pavement temperatures using data from the Virginia Smart Road and two
LTPP SMP test sites. Models were developed that incorporate the depth within the pavement, calculated
daily solar radiation and daily maximum or minimum ambient temperature (Deifenderfer et al., 2006).
The models were developed in the desert climate with four seasons (spring, summer, autumn and winter).
However, the models need to be adjusted if applied in other locations, especially in Libyan desert, which has
a specific climate characteristics. Libya is located in the region of large-latitude regions (180 South– 32.50
North).
Therefore, it is required to develop model of asphalt pavement temperature profile by taking the area of
Ghadamis as a case study area for this desert climate. This research was conducted on a Ghadamis
airport. Here we presents a part of this research, namely the model selection for prediction of maximal daily
temperatures of four layers of the pavement, using maximal daily air temperature, day of the year, wind
speed and solar radiation, based on data from Ghadamis, one of the eight locations where date were
collected. Here we discuss the selection of the best regression mode, applying different criteria. Ghadamis is
situated in desert part of Libya, latitude 30°08′ N and longitude 9°30′ E . Similar research was done in Awadat
Salem et al. (2014) for Al Kufrah region in Libya, and in Matić et al. (2011) for pavement temperatures in
Serbia.

2. FIELD DATA COLLECTION

A monitoring station was set-up to collect data on air temperature, wind speed, solar radiation and pavement
temperatures at various depths of the pavement. The enclosure was mounted on an instrumentation tower.
The data logger was operated by a solar battery. The following section describes the installation and sensor
location.
th th
The temperature data used in analysis were collected in the period from 3 of May 2012 to 21 of February
2013, at Ghadamis airport location, shown in Figure 1. The temperatures of the air and pavement were
registered each 15 seconds, as well as the wind speed and solar radiation. Maximal daily temperatures of
the air and pavement were extracted for each day of observed period.

Figure 1. Libyan road network and Ghadamis location.

Source: (Ezilion maps)

Since the total thickness of pavement layers are 34cm, it was decided to install thermocouples in the lower
portion of asphalt layers and use temperature probe in the upper portion. In the lower portion, thermocouples
were embedded at the surface of AC, and at 20, 80, 140 mm down to the AC layer. A digital thermocouple

2
 DEVELOPMENT OF PAVEMENT TEMPERATURE REGRESSION MODELS AT GHADAMIS, LIBYA

probe was inserted in each hole for measurement. The air temperature and pavement surface temperature
were obtained using an infrared temperature gun. Figure 2 shows the schematic of temperature
measurement layout.

Figure 2. Pavement layers and thermistor locations

Source: ()

For this study, the sensors (HUATIO S300 ) SERIES TEMPERTURE DATA LOGGER was used to record
temperatures of different depths of asphalt pavement in different locations.S300 Series temperature humidity
logger HUATO Digital temperature and humidity logger is widely used in the engineering purposes medical
industry, electronic industry, food industry, the transport industry, the meteorological industry, textile industry,
HVAC refrigeration, file management, agricultural research, biochemistry lab as well as hospitality industry
and food and beverage business. Table 1. shows the technica specification of data logger and the Figure 3
presents the picture of data logger.

Table 0. Technical Specification of data logger

Temperature accuracy ± 0.3C
Humidity accuracy ± 3%
Recording volume 43000
Temperature measurement range -40-85C
Logging interval 2S-24H

Figure 1. Temperature Data Logger Picture.

Source: (HUATO Company General Catalogue)

3. DATA ANALYSIS
th th
The temperature data used in analysis were collected in the period from 3 of May 2012 to 21 of February
2013, at Ghadamis location. The temperatures of the air and pavement at four different depths were
registered each 15 seconds, as well as the wind speed and solar radiation. Collected data were used to

3
Hassan Awadat Salem, Bojan Matić, Milan Marinković

investigate the different variability patterns between air and pavement temperatures, and to develop the
models for predicting maximal and minimal daily pavement temperatures. Maximum and minimum daily
temperatures of the air and pavement at four different depths were extracted for each day of observed
period. Cumulative solar radiation was calculated for each day. Based on these data, using regression
analysis, models for maximum and minimum daily temperatures were obtained. Data were analyzed using
the statistical package Statistica 12 (StatSoft Inc.,Tulsa, OK, USA), university license for Novi Sad University.

3.1. Air and pavement temperature characteristics.

In Tables 1 and 2 the descriptive statistics for maximal and minimal temperatures for Ghat are given, including
the mean, 95% confidence interval (CI), minimum, maximum, standard deviation (St.Dev), skeweness and
kurtosis.

Table 2: Descriptive statistics of Ghadamis maximal daily pavement temperatures.

Max temp Mean -95%CI 95%CI Min Max St.Dev Skewness Kurtosis
Air 35.12 34.28 35.95 17.82 50.93 8.11 0.01 -1.11
Surface 47.16 45.91 48.42 23.98 69.88 12.17 -0.03 -1.31
2cm 45.25 44.03 46.47 23.45 64.80 11.83 -0.02 -1.34
8cm 40.46 39.31 41.61 20.22 59.67 11.19 0.01 -1.33
14cm 35.40 34.29 36.51 17.42 53.68 10.78 0.06 -1.33

Table 2: Descriptive statistics of solar radiation and wind speed at Ghadamis airport.
Mean -95%CI 95%CI Min Max St.Dev Skewness Kurtosis
Wind Speed (m/s) 4.28 3.99 4.57 0.00 14.47 2.80 0.93 0.82
Solar Radiation (W/m2) 669.6 648.41 690.92 95.60 1151. 206.19 -0.11 -0.46
7 90
GHADAMIS maximal daily temperatures
80

70

Air
60 Surface
2 cm
8 cm
50
14 cm

40

30

20

10
2/11/2012 5/21/2012 8/29/2012 12/7/2012 3/17/2013
4/1/2012 7/10/2012 10/18/2012 1/26/2013 5/6/2013

date
Figure 4. Maximal daily temperatures during the study period at Ghadamis.

4
 DEVELOPMENT OF PAVEMENT TEMPERATURE REGRESSION MODELS AT GHADAMIS, LIBYA

4. REFERENCES

[1] Al-Abdul Wahhab, H.I. and Balghunaim, F.A., (1994) "Asphalt Pavement Temperature Related to Arid
Saudi Environment," J. of Materials in Civil Engineering, American Society of Civil Engineers, 6 (1),
pp. 1-14.
[2] Awadat Salem, H., Uzelac, Dj., Lozanov-Crvenković, Z., 2014 Development of a model to predict
pavement temperatures for Alkufrah region in Libya, Journal of Society for Transportation and Traffic
Studies (JSTS), Vol.5 No.4
[3] Bazlamit, S.M. and F. Reza, 2005. Changes in asphalt pavement friction components and adjustment
of skid number for temperature. J. Transp. Eng., 131: 470-476.
[4] Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G. M., 2008, Reinsel, G.C., Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and
Control, fourth ed. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.
[5] Diefenderfer, B.K., Al-Qadi, I.L., Reubush, S.D. and Freeman, T.E., 2002, Development an Validation
of A Model to Predict Pavement Temperature Profile, Presented at Transportation Research Board
nd
82 Annual Meeting, Washington DC
[6] Deifenderfer, B.K., I.L. Al-Qadi and S.D. Deifenderfer, 2006. Model to predict pavement temperature
profile: Development and validation. J. Transportat. Eng. ASCE., 132: 162-167.
[7] Hassan, H.F., Al-Nuaimi, A.S., Taha R., Jafar, T.M.A. 2005, Development of Asphalt Pavement
Temperature Models for Oman The Journal of Engineering Research, 2,(1): 32-42
[8] Marshall, C., Meier, R.W. and Welsh, M., (2001) "Seasonal Temperature Effects on Flexible
Pavements in Tennessee" Presented at Transportation Research Board 80th Annual Meeting,
Washington, DC.
[9] Lukanen, E., R.S. Stad and R. Briggs, 2000. Temperature prediction and adjustment factors of asphalt
pavement. Office of Infrastructure Research and Development Federal
Highway,Adminstartion.McLean,Virginia,pp:5-10.
[10] Matić, B., Matić, D., Radović , N., 2011, Model for pavement temperature prediction in Serbia,
Building Materials and Structures 54(4), 55-66
[11] Nazarian, S. and G. Alvardo, 2006. Impact of temperature gradient on modulus of asphaltic concrete
layers. J. Master. Civil Eng. August ASCE., 18: 492-499.
[12] StatSoft Inc. STATISTICA (data analysis software system), v.13; Available from:
www.statsoft.com, university licence for University of Novi Sad, Serbia
[13] Wahhab, H.I.A.A., 2001. Modeling resilient modulus and T-correction for Saudi roads. J.
Mater.CivilEng.ASCE,13:23-27.
[14] Yavuzturk, C., K. Ksaibati and A. D. Chiasson, 2005. Assessment of temperature fluctuations in asphalt
pavements due to thermal environmental conditions using a two-dimensional transient finite-difference
approach. J. Mat. Civil. Eng., 17: 465-475.

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