8th ASCE Specialty Conference on Probabilistic Mechanics and Structural Reliability PMC2000-016

STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF STEEL PORTAL FRAMES UNDER

DYNAMIC WIND LOAD USING WIND TUNNEL DATA
M. Kasperski
Ruhr-University Bochum, 44780 Bochum, Germany
michael.kasperski@aib.ruhr-uni-bochum.de

Abstract

The analysis of the structural reliability of steel portal frames under dynamic wind load requires non-linear
calculations in the time domain to evaluate the limit state function. In the present study, the limit state
function is obtained with the software DRAFS which models the opening and closing of plastic hinges for
vibrating frame structures. The required time histories of the wind loads have been obtained in an
accurately scaled boundary layer wind tunnel experiment. To obtain a high statistical stability, 240
individual runs have been performed which can be understood as 240 independent storms. The set of basic
variables contest random deviations from the geometry, random material properties and random load
amplitudes. A sensitivity analysis allows to reduce the set of basic variables to only three decisive
contributions: the plastic carrying capacity of the cross section Mpl, the sum of all vertical loads q and the
mean wind speed v. As example of application, a lighter roof system is analysed. This type of roof is
typical for building sites where no considerable snow loads occur (e.g., Australia or Southern U.S.A.).

Introduction

In the ultimate limit state, the structural behavior of steel portal frames is governed by
considerable geometric and physical non-linearities which are induced by larger
deformations and the forming of plastic hinges. The limit state function therefore has to
be obtained from a non-linear structural analysis. The exceedence probability of a
specific limit state is obtained from a multi-dimensional integral over the joint probability
density of the contributing random variables. In the following, the object of the study is
briefly introduced, followed by a discussion of the basic variables and possibilities of
further reduction. The estimation of the limit state function is based on a special
software-package named DRAFS© (Dynamic Reliability Analysis of Frame Structures)
which has been developed in Bochum (Koss, 1999). As most important feature on the
structural side, this program models the opening and closing of plastic hinges for a
vibrating structure. The dynamic analysis is based on time histories of the wind loads
which have been obtained in an accurately scaled boundary layer wind tunnel
experiment. A sensitivity analysis finally allows to identify three decisive basic variables
which influence the position of the traces of the exceedence probabilities. An example of
application demonstrates that, with the nowadays computer capacity, a full reliability
analysis for steel portal frames becomes practicable.

Object of the Study

Object of the study is a typical portal frame of an industrial low-rise building. The basic
dimensions of the building are: eaves height h = 11 m, width d = 27.5 m, length l = 45 m,
roof pitch α = 5°. The distance of the frames is 5 m. In Europe, designing engineers
prefer to use standardized rolled sections. In many cases, columns and rafters have the

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same stiffness. The study is based on the group of the HEA-series (DIN 1025, 1995). As
static system, a hinged support is introduced.

Basic Variables

The basic variables can be sorted in three groups: geometry, properties of the material
and loads. Geometry includes the geometry of the structural system itself and the
geometry of the cross-section. DIN 18203 specifies the quality demands for steel
structures in general. Deviations from the nominal values of the basic geometry have to
be extremely small, therefore it is reasonable to handle this aspect as deterministic. The
geometry of the cross-section on the other hand has to be treated as partially random.
DIN 1025 specifies allowable tolerances for the height and width of the profile and for
the thickness of the web and flange. From the fabrication process, it is reasonable to
assume independent uniform distributions for each of the random dimensions. A Monte-
Carlo simulation helps to reduce the number of independent basic variables. For the
structural analysis, the section area A, the plastic section modulus wpl and the moment of
inertia I have to be introduced. All three variables can be approximated by a normal
distribution with a coefficient of variation in the order of 2% to 5%, depending on the
actual size of the rolled section. It is worth mentioning that of course the distributions are
limited to both ends. While the probability densities of the cross section areas are
overlapping for adjacent profiles in the HEA-series (e.g., HEA 450 and HEA 500), the
respective curves for the plastic section modulus show a clear separation for different
profiles. For the joint-probabilities of the area and the plastic section modulus, narrow
distributions are obtained indicating a strong correlation between wpl and A and only
small variations of A for a specific value of wpl. The respective coefficient of variation of
A for a specific value wpl is in the range of 1% to 0.5%.

The next group of basic variables are the material properties, i.e., the density ρ, the
modulus of elasticity E (Young's modulus) and the yielding stress σy. The variation of the
density of rolled steel sections is smaller then 1% and may be neglected. The Young's
modulus for steel has typically a coefficient of variation of 5%. The corresponding
probability distribution has a considerable skewness and cannot be described by a normal
distribution. The most decisive basic variable on the material side is the yielding stress.
Several years of testing rolled steel section have led to the following values (Petersen,
1990): mean value 277 N/mm² and standard deviation 17.79 N/mm².

The last group of random variables are the load amplitudes of the dead load, snow load
and wind load. The dead load consists of two parts, the dead load of the structure and the
dead load of the secondary construction, i.e. purlins, cladding, fasteners and thermal
insulation. The dead load of the structure gstruc is obtained by the cross-section area A
times the steel weight γ, i.e., it is obtained as a dependent variable. The dead load of the
secondary construction gsec. has to be treated as an independent basic variable and can be
described by a normal distribution with a coefficient of variation between 5% to 10%.

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A full probabilistic model of snow loads on roofs does not exist. If the climatic conditions
at the building site require to take into account a considerable snow load, usually only the
snow load on the ground is treated as an independent basic variable. The snow load on
the roof s is obtained by multiplying this snow load on the ground with a 'deterministic'
dimensionless shape coefficient. A more sophisticated model uses an additional error
term which has a log-normal distribution (O'Rourke, 1982). For the probability
distribution of the snow load on the ground, different models are in use, varying from the
three extreme value distributions (I - Gumbel, II - Frechet, III - Weibull) to the log-
normal distribution (Sack, 1997; Soukhov, 1998).

The wind load has two contributing random parts: the extreme wind speed of a storm and
the extreme action during a single storm. It is the second contribution which requires an
extensive time domain analysis based on time histories of the wind induced actions.
These time series have been obtained in a wind tunnel experiment in an appropriately
scaled boundary layer flow. For the actual study, 240 independent runs have been
performed, each corresponding to 10 minutes storm duration in full scale (Kasperski et
al., 1996). The high number of independent runs is required for a sufficient high
statistical stability of the non-linear limit state function. The analysis of the local wind
climate in regard to extreme wind conditions has to be based on independent storm
mechanisms like, e.g., frontal depressions, thunderstorms and tropical cyclones (Gomes
and Vickery, 1978). Basic variables are therefore the extreme wind speeds v of the
occurring storm phenomena. In many practical cases, only one storm phenomenon has to
be taken into account. Usual models for the extremes of v are the three extreme value
distributions, some researchers prefer to describe the extremes by a Gumbel distribution
for v² (Kasperski, 2000; Cook, 1985).

In general, the further reliability analysis requires the knowledge of the joint-probability
of snow and wind. As a matter of fact, this information has to be obtained from an
appropriate statistical analysis of the relevant meteorological date. However, in many
cases, a simplified model can be used, if the extremes of snow and the extremes of wind
are mutually excluding. This is for instance the case for most building sites in Germany.

Calculation of the Limit State Function

The calculation of the limit state function is performed for discrete combinations of basic
variables (wpl, A(wpl), I(wpl), E, σy, gstruc(A), gsec., s, v). Two limit states are of major
interest: the occurrence of a first plastic hinge and the collapse of the structure induced by
a complete chain of plastic hinges. A non-linear analysis for each of 240 independent
'storms' leads for each of the storms to a result in binary form: '0' if the specific limit state
is not exceeded and '1' if the limit state occurs. The number of '1's divided by the total
number of storms (240) leads to a good estimate for the exceedence probability of the
specific limit state. Varying in the next step the mean wind speed level v allows to
produce a trace of exceedence probabilities covering the range from 0 to 1. Especially for
the collapse of the structure, a multi-modal shape is obtained which reflects the fact that
more than one failure path exists and contributes to the total exceedence probability.

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Sensitivity Analysis and Final Definition of the Required Family of Traces

So far, nine values have to be set to perform the non-linear analysis. The question arises,
if a further reduction of required information is possible. A sensitivity analysis for
varying the Young's modulus E and the section moment of inertia I shows, that the traces
are not affected at all for a variation of E·I from 0.9 to 1.1, where 1.0 marks the product
of the respective mean values. Therefore, E and I can be handled as deterministic values
and are introduced in the following with there mean values.

For a chosen profile, the structural failure probability finally is obtained as:

pf =
∫∫ ∫∫∫p
w pl σy g sec . s v
l.s. ( x ) ⋅p( w pl ) ⋅p(σy ) ⋅p(g sec . ) ⋅p(s, v ) dw pl dσy ⋅dg sec . ⋅ds ⋅dv

( x ) = ( w pl , A(w pl ), E ⋅I(w pl ), σy , g struc (A ), g sec . , s, v)

The above equation defines the exceedence probability of a specific limit state pl.s. to be
dependent on five independent and three dependent variables. The position of a specific
trace on the other hand explicitly depends on only three variables:
• the amplitude of the plastic carrying capacity of the cross-section Mpl which is the
product of the plastic section modulus and the yielding stress,
• the total vertical load which is the sum of the dead load of the structure, the dead
load of the secondary construction and the snow load on the roof, and finally
• the mean wind speed.
The respective variations lead to families of traces as shown in Figure 1 for a variation of
the vertical load amplitude and the carrying capacity of the cross-section.

1.0 1.0
probability of occurrence of a chain of plastic hinges

1.9
1.8
0.9
1.7
rel. frequency of obtaining a plastic hinge

1.6 250
0.8 0.8
1.5 0.0 0.8
0.7
350
1.4
0.6 0.6
1.3
0.5 450

0.4 1.2 0.4

0.3

0.2 0.2
1.1
0.1

0.0 0.0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
mean wind velocity pressure [kN/m²] mean velocity pressure [kN/m²]

variation of the vertical load amplitude q variation of the plastic carrying capacity Mpl

Figure 1. Family of traces for the exceedence probabilities

The information on the exceedence probability of a specific limit state pl.s. for any
combination of q , Mpl and v is obtained by interpolation between the respective curves.

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Example of Application

For a first example of application, a light roof system is chosen as it is typical for
climates where no considerable snow loads occur. The dead load of the secondary
construction then can be introduced with a mean value of 0.2 kN/m² and a coefficient of
variation of 5%. The wind climate is assumed to follow a Gumbel distribution with a
coefficient of variation of 12.5%. This is more or less typical for the wind climate of
Western and Central Europe. The mean value of the extreme wind speeds is varied from
20 m/s to 35 m/s. Figure 2 summarizes the respective results.

The final step is to specify the target reliability. In the Eurocode 1, this target value is
given as 10-6. Then, the required cross-section can be obtained from the plot. Table 1
presents the required plastic section modulus for two different target reliabilities and the
different wind climates, respectively.

1
0.1
0.01
failure probability - chain of plastic hinges

1E-3
1E-4
1E-5
1E-6
1E-7
1E-8
1E-9
1E-10
1E-11
1E-12
1E-13 v = 20 m/s
1E-14 v = 25 m/s
1E-15
1E-16 v = 30 m/s
1E-17 v = 40 m/s
1E-18
1E-19
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
plastic section modulus [cm³]

Figure 2. Failure probability for a lighter roof system for different wind climates

Table 1. Required plastic section modulus in [cm3] for a lighter roof system for
different wind climates (v - mean value of the extreme wind speeds,
coefficient of variation 12.5%, extreme value distribution type I)

v 20 m/s 25 m/s 30 m/s 35 m/s

pf = 10-5 1449 2285 3209 4249

pf = 10-6 1819 2766 3800 4995

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Conclusions

In the ultimate limit state, steel portal frames of industrial low-rise buildings will
experience larger plastifications. Therefore, a reliability analysis has to be based on a
non-linear structural analysis. The loads induced by wind may cause considerable
dynamic effects, i.e., the analysis has to be performed in the time domain. Based on 240
independent runs in a wind tunnel experiment, a sufficient large ensemble is sampled
which allows to estimate the limit state function very accurately. In the initial stage, a set
of eight basic variables has been identified to be possibly contributing to the failure
probability. A sensitivity analysis allowed to reduce this set to only three basic variables
which are the plastic carrying capacity of the cross-section, the vertical loads and the
wind speed. Then, it becomes possible from a practical point of view to estimate the
failure probability, i.e., the convolution of the limit state function and the probability
densities of the contributing basic variables requires not too much computing time. A first
example is presented for a lighter roof construction which is typical for building sites
with no snow load.

Acknowledgements
The above study is based on results which have been obtained in the diploma thesis of Jörg Waltring whose
task was to calculate the 'families of traces' and the diploma thesis of Anne Hartmann who developed the
computer code for the efficient convolution. Both studies have been supervised with the help of Holger
Koss. The development of DRAFS has been mainly sponsored by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.
All these supports are gratefully acknowledged.

References
DIN 1025-3, (1994), "Warmgewalzte I-Träger", (hot rolled I-section)
DIN 18202, (1986), " Maßtoleranzen im Hochbau", (tolerances for offsizes in building construction)
Cook, N.J. (1985), "The designer's guide to wind loading of building structures, Part 1", Butterworth,
London, ISBN 0 408 00870 9
ENV1991-1, (1993), "Basis of Design and Action on Structures"
Gomes, L. and Vickery, B.J. (1978), "Extreme Wind Speeds in Mixed Climates", Journal of Wind
Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics 2, 331-344
Kasperski, M., Koss, H. and Sahlmen, J. (1996), "BEATRICE Joint-Project: Wind Action on Low-Rise
Buildings, Part I: Basic Information and First Results", Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial
Aerodynamics 64, 101-125
Kasperski, M. (2000), "Specification and Codification of Design Wind Loads", Habilitation-Thesis,
Faculty of Civil Engineering, Ruhr-University Bochum
Koss, H. (1999), DRAFS, Dynamic Reliability Analysis of Frame Structures, Version 1.3, Internal Report
Aerodynamik im Bauwesen, Ruhr-University Bochum
O'Rourke, M.J., Redfield, R. and Bradsky, P.v. (1982), "Uniform Snow Loads on Structures", ASCE
Journal of Structural Engineering, 109(7), 2781–2798
Sack, R.L. (1997) "Perspectives on the Science Engineering Effects of Snow", 3rd International Conference
on Snow Engineering, Sendai, Japan, May 26-31, 1996, Proceedings, 3-10, Balkema ISBN 90 5410 8657
Soukhov, D. (1998), “The Probability Distribution Function for Snow Loads in Germany", Leipzig Annual
Engineering Report, ISSN 1432-6590

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