ESGM 27.006 | 11 January 2021 | Published by ICIS | www.icis.

com/energy | 20 Pages

European Spot
Gas Markets

1 MarketsBritain 2
2 News Ukraine gas TSO reduces
3 Secondary data
Trades 19

Section
Section

Section
Belgium 3 Polish short-haul amid overbooking 13 ICE Natural gas futures 18
Netherlands 4 Outlook for 2021: Italian gas 14 OCM data 18
Germany 5 Daily oil summary 15 Beach assessment 18
Central Europe 6 Oil market price assessment 18
France 7 National grid daily capacity 18
Spain 8
Italy 9
Turkey 10

NBP DAY-AHEAD MIDPOINT

11 JANUARY 2021
NBP, p/th 67.500
PSV moves above TTF as
HEREN® MONTHLY INDICES
JANUARY 21
Italian LNG supply declines
NBP, p/th 49.207 • PSV moves above TTF LNG SUPPLY
Zeebrugge, p/th 49.181 • Lower LNG supply reverses spread Italian LNG sendout during January has been around
• Transitgas flows boosted 60% lower than the same period in 2020, covering
TTF, €/MWh 16.340
5% of gas demand. This was down from just over 11%
PEG, €/MWh 16.511 Italian natural gas Day-ahead and front month during the final quarter of 2020.
NCG, €/MWh 16.345 contracts have moved above the TTF, with falling LNG According to LNG Edge Italy has received one cargo
GASPOOL, €/MWh 16.789 supply reversing the spread between the markets. so far this year and two more are due by 20 January,
In late 2020 low demand in Italy compared to north- although one of those predictions was based on algo-
VTP, €/MWh 15.755
west Europe and expectations of rising supply via the Trans rithmic data and more information will be required to
PSV, €/MWh 16.765 Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) pushed PSV prices below the TTF. confirm its destination.
Since then much lower LNG supply and expecta- During the final month of December there were ten
HEREN® MONTHLY CUMULATIVE tions of rising Italian consumption have reversed the deliveries, with the decline in January a key factor push-
INDICES FEBRUARY 21
spread, with flows through the Transitgas pipeline ing up Italian prices relative to the Netherlands.
NBP, p/th 59.334 ramping up in response. Very high prices in Asia have pulled cargoes away
Zeebrugge, p/th 57.733 The latest MetDesk forecast indicated tempera- from Europe, with this expected to continue for the
TTF, €/MWh 19.572 tures in Italy are expected to be between 1-3°C below remainder of the quarter based on the current global
the seasonal average in weeks 2 and 3. spreads. ❯❯ Page 16
PEG, €/MWh 19.881
NCG, €/MWh 19.177
BALTIC MONTHLY
GASPOOL, €/MWh 19.792
VTP, €/MWh 18.807 Shippers call for equal tariffs on
PSV, €/MWh

HEREN® DAILY INDICES

20.787
Poland-Lithuania interconnector
11 JANUARY 2021
Baltic shippers have called for a “level playing cember, bidirectional flows are likely on the GIPL pipe-
NBP Within-day, p/th 65.361 field” with tariffs on the Gas Interconnection Poland- line as a result of security of supply and price arbitrage
NBP D+1, p/th 66.259 Lithuania (GIPL) due to expectations of interest in opportunities.
Zeebrugge D+1, p/th 58.600 bidirectional flows when the link comes online later Interest in non-standard capacity products to ac-
this year. cess and move volumes from the LNG terminals in
TTF D+1, €/MWh 21.832
According to feedback published by Lithuanian Lithuania and Poland was noted.
PEG D+1, €/MWh 22.760 transmission system operator Amber Grid on 23 De- However, tariffs for Polish import capac- ❯❯ Page 17
NCG D+1, €/MWh 21.196
GASPOOL D+1, €/MWh 21.477
European day-ahead gas prices: day-ahead vs previous day
€/MWh
VTP D+1, €/MWh 20.586
60
PSV D+1, €/MWh 25.957
50

HEREN® DAILY MONTH AHEAD 40

INDICES
11 JANUARY 2021 30
NBP, p/th 65.145
20
Zeebrugge, p/th 58.677
10
TTF, €/MWh 21.714
0
NCG, €/MWh 21.043 NBP Zeebrugge ZTP TTF PEG NCG GASPOOL VTP CZECH GAS PSV Turkish Slovakia PVB
Gas
Source: ICIS

ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
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BRITAIN NBP PRICE ASSESSMENT

11 JANUARY 2021 p/th

Front end continues Period Bid Offer Diff Data used

Volatility
index

to surge at near Day-ahead

Weekend
67.450*
67.000*
67.550*
67.500*
5.900
5.250
T
B
95.0%
99.3%

record highs
WDNW 67.900* 68.100* 6.625 T 97.6%
BOM 66.750* 67.250* 5.700 B n/a
February '21 67.100* 67.175* 6.188 B 79.7%
March '21 59.600* 59.700* 3.950 B 72.5%
Outlook April '21 50.875* 51.050* 2.125 B 53.0%
Below average temperatures forecast in week 3 May '21 44.700* 45.200* 1.063 I 52.3%
Sparse LNG cargo schedule on the horizon June '21 42.575* 42.950* 0.675 I 52.2%
Asian premiums to continue to attract LNG cargoes away from July '21 41.975* 42.475* 0.738 I < 20 days
Europe Q2 '21 46.050* 46.400* 1.288 S 52.1%
Q3 '21 43.050* 43.400* 0.738 S 47.5%
The British gas NBP front end soared further on Monday, driven Q4 '21 51.000* 51.375* 1.138 S 38.3%
by bullish weather fundamentals. This momentum carried out over Q1 '22 54.250* 54.625* 1.038 S 36.0%
Q2 '22 39.775* 40.050* 0.038 I 26.4%
to the curve which was supported by tight import supply.
Q3 '22 38.475* 38.750* 0.038 I 27.3%
Despite the British gas grid being consistently oversupplied
Q4 '22 44.675* 44.875* 0.325 I 24.6%
during the session, the Day-ahead rose to its highest closing value Q1 '23 49.125* 49.325* 0.325 I 22.3%
since November 2018. According to National Grid forecasts, de- Q2 '23 37.100* 37.200* 0.425 I 26.0%
mand is expected to rise by over 15mcm day on day on Tuesday. Q3 '23 35.800* 35.900* 0.425 I 26.9%
LNG import margins to Britain are already extremely tight, with Q4 '23 42.800* 43.300* 0.625 I < 20 days
no cargoes currently being scheduled to deliver to British terminals Gas Year 21 45.875* 46.200* 0.563 I 31.6%
after Monday. Gas Year 22 41.675* 41.825* 0.363 I 22.9%
Due to severely limited imports, the British gas grid is set to Year 2022 44.300* 44.575* 0.350 I 27.8%
heavily depend on pipeline flow and storage withdrawals. Storage Year 2023 41.200* 41.425* 0.438 I < 20 days
Summer 21 44.550* 44.900* 1.013 B 49.4%
withdrawal renominations were revised up by over 12mcm intra-
Winter 21 52.625* 53.000* 1.088 B 37.1%
day to nearly 18mcm. Storage inventory is currently well below
Summer 22 39.125* 39.400* 0.038 B 26.8%
historical levels from the past two years. Winter 22 46.900* 47.100* 0.325 B 23.4%
Demand for power generation also looks to increase as forecast Summer 23 36.450* 36.550* 0.425 B 26.4%
wind output is set to fall day on day, averaging just under 10GW Winter 23 44.850* 45.350* 0.625 I 25.2%
on Tuesday. Wind generation is even sparser for the remainder of Summer 24 35.700* 36.200* 0.425 I 31.6%
the week, averaging just over 6GW. Winter 24 44.900* 45.400* 0.625 I 22.5%
A cold spell is anticipated pm the front end as weekly tem- Summer 25 36.100* 36.600* 0.425 I 32.5%
perature forecasts have been revised down with anomalies of -3°C Winter 25 45.350* 45.850* 0.625 I 21.8%
expected for next week.
*Indicative bid/offers ❯❯ Trades
The prompt upside helped push up the curve as the front
HEREN® NBP DAY-AHEAD INDEX
month continued to rise higher, after reaching two-year highs last
Friday. 12 January
January Previous Cumul.
January’s current total scheduled and delivered LNG cargoes
tally at only three, significantly below 24 from the previous year’s Price, p/th 66.259 61.738 59.200
equivalent as Asian premium prices continue to attract cargoes No. of trades 394 286 2441
away from Europe. Volume, m th 35.980 28.375 217.770
One market source said that the uncertainty of the polar vortex
impact could lead to further bullish weather signals for the gas HEREN® NBP WITHIN-DAY INDEX
markets in the northern hemisphere, adding further momentum to 11 January
climbing Asian LNG prices. The source said that the British gas mar- January Previous Cumul.
ket originally hedged their positions on the assumption of healthy Price, p/th 65.361 62.196 59.164
import flows during March and April. Eugene Poon No. of trades 160 128 975
Volume, m th 14.785 10.750 89.295

UK SPARK SPREADS FOR 49.13% FUEL EFFICIENCY 11 JANUARY 2021

NBP Gas price Spark spread Spark Diff (D-1)
Period p/th £/MWh £/MWh £/MWh
Day-ahead 66.259 22.61 53.44 27.90
February '21 67.138 22.91 28.87 0.85
HEREN CLOSING INDEX
March '21 59.650 20.35 23.62 0.55
price Volume Number Low High Q2 '21 46.225 15.77 23.15 0.21
Contract Hub p/th '000 therms of deals trade trade Methodology Q3 '21 43.225 14.75 22.88 0.69

Day-ahead NBP 67.644 7680 60 67.000 68.000

Index Closing Summer 21 44.725 15.26 23.01 0.44
Window
Winter 21 52.813 18.02 22.75 0.30
Summer 22 39.263 13.40 20.33 0.32
Data used key: B – bid/offer, T – Transaction, S – Spread, F – Fundamentals,
I – Interpolation/extrapolation Winter 22 47.000 16.04 22.11 0.28
The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment. Summer 23 36.500 12.45 19.75 -0.40

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BELGIUM ZEEBRUGGE PRICE ASSESSMENT

11 JANUARY 2021 p/th

Cold forecast pushes Period

Day-ahead
Bid
61.000*
Offer
61.225*
Diff
6.450
Basis
-6.388
Basis diff Data used
0.550 B

up Belgian gas Weekend

WDNW
60.525*
61.550*
61.025*
61.750*
5.975
6.950
-6.475
-6.350
0.725
0.325
I
I

contracts
BOM 61.325* 61.825* 7.000 -5.425 1.300 I
February '21 60.300* 60.375* 5.838 -6.800 -0.350 S
March '21 55.025* 55.125* 3.325 -4.575 -0.625 S
April '21 49.550* 49.725* 2.575 -1.325 0.450 I
Outlook
Q2 '21 45.750* 46.100* 1.163 -0.300 -0.125 I
Temperatures to average 1°C below normal in week 2 Q3 '21 44.900* 45.250* 1.113 1.850 0.375 I
IUK exports may rise Q4 '21 49.475* 49.850* 1.088 -1.525 -0.050 I
LNG sendout to remain muted Q1 '22 50.675* 51.050* 1.088 -3.575 0.050 I
Q2 '22 40.725* 41.000* 0.038 0.950 0.000 I
Prompt prices surged at Belgian natural gas markets on Monday, Q3 '22 40.275* 40.550* 0.038 1.800 0.000 I
amid expectations of persistent cold weather from mid-week. Gas Year 21 45.300* 45.625* 0.563 -0.575 0.000 I
Meteo Belgique forecast temperatures would rise on Tuesday, Year 2022 44.475* 44.750* 0.375 0.175 0.025 I
reaching highs of 8°C, before falling back. MetDesk predicted tem- Summer 21 45.325* 45.675* 1.138 0.775 0.125 S
peratures would average 1°C below normal for week 2 and 1-3°C Winter 21 50.075* 50.450* 1.088 -2.550 0.000 S
Summer 22 40.500* 40.775* 0.038 1.375 0.000 S
colder than average in week 3.
*Indicative bid/offers
Demand remained elevated on Monday, with offtake at a rate
❯❯ Trades
of 97.4mcm/day between 06:00-15:00 Brussels time according to
data from grid operator Fluxys. Consumption reached 94.7mcm on HEREN ZEEBRUGGE DAY-AHEAD INDEX
®

Friday, its high daily total since February 2019. January

Shippers nominated to export 27.2mcm to Britain, down from 12 January Previous Cumul.
28mcm on Friday. ENTSOG data showed shippers held 21.8mcm/ Price, p/th 58.600 54.854 53.519
day on the link between 12-31 January, although they could book No. of trades 18 28 114
additional short-term capacity as the basis was assesed below the Volume, m th 1.505 2.030 9.190
-6.283p/th needed to cover costs on the route.
Port data showed the 172,000cbm Georgiy Ushakov would
ZTP PRICE ASSESSMENT
berth at Zeebrugge on 15 January, but it is likely to be reloaded or 11 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh
transhipped onto one of the four ballast vessels expected between
Period Bid Offer Diff Data used
15 January-12 February.
Day-ahead 22.850* 22.875* 2.038 B
LNG sendout from Zeebrugge has dropped to an average of
February '21 22.600* 22.650* 2.000 S
2.9mcm/day in since the start of 2021, compared with 15.1mcm/ Q2 '21 17.425* 17.675* 0.538 I
day in January 2020 and 14.2mcm/day in January 2019. Summer 21 17.325* 17.525* 0.550 B
A cold snap in Japan has pushed Asian LNG prices to spike
further, drawing cargoes away from Europe. Gretchen Ransow Data used key: B – bid/offer, T – Transaction, S – Spread, F – Fundamentals,
I – Interpolation/extrapolation
The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment.

ZTP - ZEE SPREADS €/MWh

Spread Diff
Day-ahead -0.278 -0.435
February '21 -0.209 -0.239
Q2 '21 0.195 0.072
Summer 21 0.244 0.096
*A positive spread represents a higher outright price at the ZTP than at
Zeebrugge

ZTP - TTF SPREADS €/MWh

Spread Diff
Day-ahead 0.713 0.238
February '21 0.313 0.051
Q2 '21 0.025 0.000
Summer 21 0.075 0.025
*A positive spread represents a higher outright price at the ZTP than at
the TTF

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Should you require a licence or additional copies, please contact ICIS at energyinfo@icis.com.

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NETHERLANDS TTF PRICE ASSESSMENT

11 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh

Risk of cold weather, Period Bid Offer Diff Data used

Volatility
index

low LNG supply Day-ahead

Weekend
WDNW
22.125*
21.900*
22.250*
22.175*
22.150*
22.450*
1.800
1.625
1.988
B
B
T
82.5%
77.7%
83.1%
boost prompt BOM
February '21
22.250
22.300
22.400
22.325
2.013
1.950
B
B
n/a
77.0%
March '21 20.875 20.925 1.363 B 68.6%
Outlook April '21 18.225 18.275 0.713 B 50.1%
Downward revision in temperature forecast for weeks 2 and 3 May '21 17.250* 17.300* 0.438 B 43.9%
Low wind, cold weather to boost gas demand June '21 17.025* 17.075* 0.488 I 40.2%
Low LNG supply could continue amid high Asian LNG prices July '21 16.775* 17.275* 0.538 I < 20 Days
Q2 '21 17.500* 17.550* 0.538 B 44.7%
Dutch natural gas prompt and near curve contracts continued Q3 '21 17.150 17.200 0.513 B 42.2%
to gain value on Monday amid cold weather, low wind forecast Q4 '21 18.350* 18.450* 0.388 S 33.6%
Q1 '22 18.800* 18.850* 0.388 S 31.0%
and low LNG supply expectations.
Q2 '22 15.550* 15.625* 0.150 I 23.8%
The curve also increased amid small day-on-day gains on car-
Q3 '22 15.350* 15.425* 0.150 I 24.2%
bon and coal markets. Q4 '22 16.475* 16.550* 0.038 I 19.9%
To meet high demand, withdrawals from storage facilities in- Q1 '23 16.975* 17.100* 0.038 I 18.9%
creased to 165mcm/day on Monday between 5:00-14:00 London Q2 '23 14.700* 14.875* 0.088 I 15.8%
time, according to data from TSO GTS, which is a 15% day-on- Q3 '23 14.400* 14.575* 0.088 I < 20 Days
day increase. Gas Year 21 17.025* 17.100* 0.275 I 28.0%
Storage fullness on 10 January was 13 percentage points Year 2022 16.550* 16.625* 0.188 I 24.3%
below the 2019-2020 average fullness at the same period, ac- Year 2023 15.275* 15.775* 0.088 I 14.7%
cording to ICIS collated data. Year 2024 14.775* 15.275* 0.063 I 12.9%
Year 2025 14.575* 15.075* 0.025 I < 20 Days
Cold temperatures and low wind could continue to boost gas
Summer 21 17.325* 17.375* 0.525 B 43.4%
demand for heating and power generation.
Winter 21 18.575* 18.650* 0.388 B 32.2%
Weather service MetDesk revised downward its temperature Summer 22 15.450* 15.525* 0.150 B 24.0%
forecast for weeks 2 and 3. Winter 22 16.725* 16.825* 0.038 B 19.4%
Temperature anomalies in the Netherlands are forecast to Summer 23 14.550* 14.725* 0.088 B 15.7%
average around -1°C in week 2 and up to -3°C in week 3. Winter 23 15.825* 16.325* 0.075 I 12.1%
MetDesk forecast wind output below seasonal norms in the Summer 24 13.950* 14.450* 0.075 I 13.7%
rest of week 2 in the Netherlands and Germany, Europe’s country Winter 24 15.400* 15.900* 0.050 I 13.3%
with the largest wind capacity. Summer 25 13.775* 14.275* 0.025 I 15.5%
In week 3, wind power is expected to return to close to sea- Winter 25 15.375* 15.875* 0.025 I 16.8%
sonal norms, according to MetDesk.
*Indicative bid/offers ❯❯ Trades
Supply from Norway and Germany declined day on day be- Data used key: B – bid/offer, T – Transaction, S – Spread, F – Fundamentals,
tween 5:00-14:00 London time, GTS data showed. I – Interpolation/extrapolation
The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment.
The Netherlands also continued to export H gas to Belgium
and to the UK, according to GTS data.
Two laden LNG vessels are expected to dock at Gate on 15 and HEREN® TTF DAY-AHEAD INDEX
24 January, according to LNG Edge. January
The spread between the ICIS East Asia Index (EAX) and TTF 12 January Previous Cumul.
front month widened over December and January. Price, €/MWh 21.832 20.436 19.497
This could continue to divert cargoes away from Europe and No. of trades 404 341 2586
limit LNG supply to the Netherlands. Volume, MWh 970,080 707,760 5,943,000
On 11 January, LNG sendout stood at 0.5mcm/day be-
tween 5:00-14:00 London time, according to GTS data, while TTF PRICE ASSESSMENT $/MMBTU NBP PRICE ASSESSMENT $/MMBTU
the 2019-2020 average sendout in January was 25.5mcm/day. Period Bid Offer Diff Period Bid Offer Diff
Daisy de Selliers Day-ahead 7.885 7.903 0.591 Day-ahead 9.102 9.116 0.751
Weekend 7.806 7.895 0.529 Weekend 9.042 9.109 0.663
February '21 7.953 7.962 0.645 February '21 9.057 9.067 0.790

HEREN CLOSING INDEX

price €/ Volume Number Low High
Contract Hub MWh MWh of deals trade trade Methodology

22.350 22.800 Index Closing

Day-ahead TTF 22.523 73440 38 Window

ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on the content of this report. Unauthorised reproduction, onward transmission or copying of European Spot Gas Markets in either its electronic or hard copy format is illegal.
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NCG PRICE ASSESSMENT

GERMANY
11 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh

Continued supply Period

Day-ahead
Bid
21.575*
Offer
21.625*
Diff
1.750
Volatility
Data used index
B 84.5%
tightness lifts prompt Weekend
WDNW
21.225*
21.375*
21.725*
21.875*
1.788
1.963
I
I
83.4%
78.2%

and near curve further BOM

February '21
March '21
21.450*
21.675*
20.475
21.800*
21.700*
20.575
1.963
1.975
1.375
B
S
B
n/a
81.8%
71.2%
April '21 18.400* 18.625* 0.750 B 44.4%
Outlook May '21 17.675* 17.725* 0.500 I 44.8%
Surging storage withdrawals could add to bullish sentiment June '21 17.450* 17.500* 0.500 I 42.5%
Shippers may source from storage to meet rising demand amid cold spell July '21 17.375* 17.850* 0.538 I < 20 Days
Flows to Netherlands likely to increase on back of TTF premium Q2 '21 17.850 17.950 0.588 B 43.7%
Q3 '21 17.550* 17.600* 0.538 B 41.6%
Q4 '21 18.550 18.675 0.463 B 33.2%
Prompt and near-curve gas contracts on German hubs gained significantly
Q1 '22 18.750* 18.925* 0.413 I 31.5%
on Monday as forecasts of cooler temperatures and continued expectations of Q2 '22 15.800* 15.875* 0.125 I 22.8%
low LNG to northwest Europe lifted prices. Q3 '22 15.500* 15.575* 0.125 I 23.3%
Forecaster MetDesk expected temperatures to be slightly above normal Q4 '22 16.575* 16.700* 0.063 I 23.1%
for the start of week 2, however indicated they could drop up to 5°C below Q1 '23 17.125* 17.250* 0.063 I 22.4%
seasonal averages by the end of the week. Q2 '23 14.900* 15.250* 0.075 I 15.2%
Q3 '23 14.600* 14.950* 0.075 I < 20 Days
Meanwhile, the Dutch TTF continued to rally on the back of low expected
Year 2022 16.650* 16.775* 0.175 I 24.4%
LNG sendout, dragging up other European markets in line with it. Northwest Year 2023 15.750* 15.775* 0.113 B 16.1%
Europe is also facing lower LNG supply than in the last gas winter due to high Year 2024 15.325* 15.450* 0.088 B < 20 Days
prices in Asia attracting cargoes away. Although Germany does not directly Summer 21 17.700 17.775 0.550 B 42.7%
receive LNG, it is impacted by supply shortages at the neighbouring Dutch TTF, Winter 21 18.650 18.800 0.438 B 32.3%
as well as a lack of flexibility across Europe more generally. Summer 22 15.650* 15.725* 0.125 B 23.1%
Winter 22 16.850* 16.975* 0.063 S 22.7%
The Netherlands is currently expecting a laden vessel on Friday with an- Summer 23 14.750* 15.100* 0.075 S 15.4%
other potential arrival indicated by algorithmic data for later in the month, Winter 23 16.075* 16.575* 0.125 S 12.7%
according to LNG Edge. Summer 24 14.325* 14.800* 0.075 S 13.5%
German gas storage levels have fallen just over six percentage points since Winter 24 15.900* 16.375* 0.050 I 13.2%
the beginning of week 1 by 10 January, adding to bullish sentiment. Summer 25 14.175* 14.675* 0.025 I 15.1%
Winter 25 15.775* 16.275* 0.025 I 16.4%
The spot and near curve on the German hubs remained at a discount to
*Indicative bid/offers
their Dutch TTF counterparts.
This is likely to incentivise shippers to sell gas on the Dutch market, boost- GASPOOL PRICE ASSESSMENT
ing H-gas flows from Germany to the Netherlands back to the higher levels 11 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh
recorded at the end of 2020. Volatility
On the curve, rising carbon futures and crude prices supported contracts. Period Bid Offer Diff Data used Index
Day-ahead 21.550* 21.700* 1.488 B 83.7%
Julie Fisher and Daisy Jennings-Gray
Weekend 21.250* 21.750* 1.313 I 79.0%
WDNW 21.850* 22.350* 2.100 I 77.0%
BOM 21.775* 22.275* 2.100 I n/a
February '21 21.675* 21.725* 1.788 S 78.2%
March '21 20.575* 20.700* 1.300 S 68.7%
HEREN® NCG DAY-AHEAD INDEX April '21 18.375* 18.525* 0.875 S 46.0%
May '21 17.525* 17.600* 0.500 I 45.4%
January June '21 17.350* 17.425* 0.500 I 43.1%
12 January Previous Cumul.
July '21 17.050* 17.525* 0.600 I < 20 Days
Price, €/MWh 21.196 19.856 19.141 Q2 '21 17.750* 17.850* 0.625 I 44.4%
No. of trades 142 160 905 Q3 '21 17.400* 17.500* 0.600 I 45.7%
Q4 '21 18.550* 18.675* 0.463 I 33.2%
Volume, MWh 367,800 339,600 2,144,880
Q1 '22 18.750* 18.925* 0.413 I 31.5%
Q2 '22 15.800* 15.875* 0.125 I 22.8%
Q3 '22 15.500* 15.575* 0.125 I 23.3%
Data used key: B – bid/offer, Q4 '22 16.575* 16.700* 0.063 I 23.1%
HEREN® GASPOOL DAY-AHEAD INDEX
T – Transaction, S – Spread, Q1 '23 17.125* 17.250* 0.063 I 22.4%
F – Fundamentals, January
Q2 '23 14.900* 15.250* 0.075 I 15.2%
I – Interpolation/extrapolation 12 January Previous Cumul.
Q3 '23 14.600* 14.950* 0.075 I < 20 Days
Price, €/MWh 21.477 20.137 19.354 Year 2022 16.650* 16.775* 0.175 I 24.4%
The key codes represent the
primary data type used to make No. of trades 119 150 783 Year 2023 15.750* 15.775* 0.113 B 16.1%
the assessment. Volume, MWh 343,080 315,120 1,925,760 Year 2024 15.325* 15.450* 0.088 I < 20 Days
Summer 21 17.575* 17.675* 0.600 S 45.0%
Winter 21 18.650* 18.800* 0.438 I 32.3%
GERMAN SPARK SPREADS 11 JANUARY 2021 Summer 22 15.650* 15.725* 0.125 I 23.1%
Winter 22 16.850* 16.975* 0.063 I 22.7%
TTF Spark spread Spark Diff (D-1)
Summer 23 14.750* 15.100* 0.075 I 15.4%
Period €/MWh €/MWh €/MWh
Winter 23 16.075* 16.575* 0.125 I 12.7%
Day-ahead 21.83 0.74 -11.39 Summer 24 14.325* 14.800* 0.075 I 13.5%
February '21 22.31 11.21 -2.22 Winter 24 15.900* 16.375* 0.050 I 13.2%
Summer 25 14.175* 14.675* 0.025 I 15.1%
Q2 '21 17.53 10.03 -0.79
Winter 25 15.775* 16.275* 0.025 I 16.4%
Year 2022 16.59 16.86 -0.81 *Indicative bid/offers ❯❯ Trades

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CENTRAL EUROPE VTP PRICE ASSESSMENT

11 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh

Short-term prices Period

Day-ahead
Bid
21.550*
Offer
21.700*
Diff
2.375
Data used
B

skyrocket amid Russian BOM

February '21
21.450*
20.675*
21.500*
21.125*
2.325
2.088
B
B

gas supply patterns March '21

April '21
19.750*
18.700*
19.950*
19.175*
1.225
0.800
B
I
Q2 '21 18.200* 18.400* 0.600 S
Outlook
Weather-driven demand to support short-term prices amid scarcer LNG Q3 '21 18.100* 18.150* 0.675 I
Italian demand may drive Austrian spot gas exports Year 2022 16.975* 17.075* 0.263 B
Gas stored in Ukraine may provide a buffer for CEE prices Summer 21 18.150* 18.275* 0.638 B
Winter 21 18.750* 18.875* 0.550 B
CEE natural gas prompt prices soared through the close on Monday reflect- Summer 22 16.150* 16.375* 0.175 B
ing similar moves on other European hubs. *Indicative bid/offers ❯❯ Trades
The Austrian Day-ahead contract was trading bullishly throughout the
session bolstered by a downwards revision of the weather forecasts across
Europe, according to which temperatures are expected to stay below seasonal HEREN® VTP DAY-AHEAD INDEX
norms during the next 10 days. However, having changed hands at €20.95/ January
MWh around 20 minutes before the close the product was bought at €21.55/ 12 January Previous Cumul.
MWh a few minutes after 16:30 London time. At the close, the Austrian Day- Price, €/MWh 20.586 19.074 18.116
ahead was assessed €2.375/MWh higher than last Friday. No. of trades 32 28 255
The late jump affected other European hubs as well but the gains on the Volume, MWh 68,400 63,480 461,880
Czech Day-ahead were smaller as the contract closed €1.425/MWh higher
session on session.
Higher seasonal demand, low wind and less LNG scheduled to arrive CZECH REPUBLIC PRICE ASSESSMENT
in Europe were the main drivers causing European hub prices to soar. The 11 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh
stronger gains on the Austrian spot could have been due to price moves in the Period Bid Offer Diff Data used
neighbouring Italy. The PSV Day-ahead closed on Monday €5.7/MWh higher Day-ahead 20.800* 21.225* 1.413 B
session on session and €6.45/MWh above its AVTP peer, which provides a BOM 20.800* 21.300* 1.625 I
strong arbitrage opportunity for Austrian spot gas exports to Italy. February '21 21.675* 21.775* 1.975 B
Meanwhile, Russian gas flows to Slovakia via Ukraine were forecast at March '21 20.225* 20.700* 1.375 I
72mcm, unchanged from last Friday, according to Slovak grid operator Eu- April '21 18.550* 19.025* 0.750 I
stream. Flows into Slovakia from the Czech Republic were expected to drop Q2 '21 18.175* 18.275* 0.588 I
to 33mcm on Monday from about 38 mcm last Friday. Katya Zapletnyuk
Q3 '21 17.825* 18.175* 0.663 I
Year 2022 16.825* 17.100* 0.150 B
UAVTP GAS PRICE ASSESSMENT 11 JANUARY 2021
Summer 21 18.000* 18.225* 0.625 B
UAH/Kscm €/MWh Winter 21 18.825* 19.100* 0.538 B
*Indicative bid/offers
Period Bid Offer Diff Data used Midpoint Diff
February '21 6,965.000* 7,115.000* 240.000 B 19.460 0.980 SLOVAKIA PRICE ASSESSMENT
11 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh
Period Bid Offer Diff Data used
UA-BORDER GAS PRICE ASSESSMENT 11 JANUARY 2021
Day-ahead 21.475* 21.975* 2.375 S
UAH/Kscm €/MWh BOM 21.325* 21.800* 2.313 I
Period Bid Offer Diff Data used Midpoint Diff February '21 21.025* 21.500* 2.088 I

February '21 7,244.000* 7,425.000* 534.500 B 20.274 1.794

MGP PRICE ASSESSMENT

11 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh
Period Bid Offer Diff Data used
Day-ahead 20.525* 20.775* 1.800 S

Data used key: B – bid/offer, T – Transaction, S – Spread, F – Fundamentals,

I – Interpolation/extrapolation
The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment.

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FRANCE PEG PRICE ASSESSMENT

11 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh

PEG contracts spike on Period

Day-ahead
Bid
23.050*
Offer
23.075*
Diff
2.075
Data used
B

bullish weather outlook BOM

February '21
22.500*
22.700*
22.925*
22.725*
2.013
2.038 B
I

and new strike actions March '21

April '21
21.225*
18.250*
21.325*
18.475*
1.363
0.700
S
S
Q2 '21 17.625* 17.750* 0.538 I
Outlook
Q3 '21 17.275* 17.300* 0.500 I
Gas sector strikes planned on 14 January
Q4 '21 18.275* 18.550* 0.525 B
Temperatures to move below average in week 3
Low LNG supply awaited in January Year 2022 16.575* 16.775* 0.300 I
Summer 21 17.450* 17.525* 0.513 B
French natural gas contracts jumped at the start of the second week of Winter 21 18.500* 18.675* 0.463 B
2021 as cooler weather forecasts, rise of LNG prices in Asia and new strikes Summer 22 15.475* 15.725* 0.175 B
planned at nuclear and gas plants in France depicted a bullish outlook for the *Indicative bid/offers ❯❯ Trades
PEG hub.
CGT, CFE-CGC, Cfdt and FO Energie et Mines, announced in a joint HEREN® PEG DAY-AHEAD INDEX
statement that a strike in the gas sector is scheduled for Thursday 14 Janu- January
ary to protest against environmental regulations unveiled on 24 November. 12 January Previous Cumul.
The regulations aim to reach a 30% reduction in daily energy consumption Price, €/MWh 22.760 20.644 19.582
in new homes between 2021-2024. The four unions, that last week had also No. of trades 82 81 693
announced a nuclear strike action on 19 January against EDF’s Hercule project, Volume, MWh 155,565 136,670 1,086,230
warned that 150,000 workers in the French gas production chain could poten-
tially be affected by these measures.
Temperatures should remain in line with seasonal norms for the remainder
of the week, according to MetDesk, but the weather service revised down-
wardly its projections for week 3, which could see temperatures 1-3°C below
seasonal average supporting gas demand from heating appliances.
Gas consumption, however, should drop to an average of 222mcm/day
for the rest of the working week, down from 250mcm/day recorded in the
previous working week according to system operators GRTgaz and Terega. In
comparison, on 11-15 January last year gas consumption averaged 181mcm/
day.
A lower LNG supply should also play on the bullish side as LNG Edge data
indicated on Monday that one vessel is awaited on 21 January, making it only
the second LNG cargo to berth at French terminals this month, down from 13
in the previous month. In January 2020 a total of 18 cargoes delivered into
French terminals. Andrea Battaglia

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SPAIN PVB PRICE ASSESSMENT

11 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh

Spanish network Period

Day-ahead
Bid
30.500*
Offer
30.850*
Diff
-21.325
Data used
B

becomes very long, February '21

March '21
28.750*
24.625*
29.250*
25.125*
-3.800
1.363
I
I

spot contracts drop Q2 '21

Q3 '21
18.375*
18.025*
18.850*
18.500*
0.538
0.513
I
I
Year 2022 17.500* 18.000* 0.188 I
Outlook ❯❯ Trades
T emperatures closer to norms in the next two weeks
Wind to drop on Tuesday-Friday by over 3GW compared to Monday’s
 Data used key: B – bid/offer, T – Transaction, S – Spread, F – Fundamentals,
estimate I – Interpolation/extrapolation
The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment.
But to rise well above norms next week

The Spanish natural gas Day-ahead dropped on Monday as the national gas
grid was very long throughout the day, which forced the network operator
Enagas GTS to launch a balancing selling action.
Wind power was expected to drop to 6.1GW on Tuesday and stay roughly
the same for the rest of the week, ICIS forecast showed. This compares to an
estimated 9.6GW on Monday, power grid operator RTE showed.
Temperatures were predicted to rise closer to norm in the next two weeks
and wind power to increase to around 10GW/day next week, meteorologist
MetDesk showed. This could cap demand for heating appliances and send
bearish signals to the prompt.
Spain was scheduled to receive eight laden LNG cargoes by the end of
the month, and one ballast, but which was not expected to pick up a reload.
A partial LNG reload scheduled at the Cartagena terminal for 16 January
has been cancelled, according to the latest schedule from Enagas. The can-
celled reload follows Spain’s first full-sized reload since 2018 at the Huelva ter-
minal earlier this month. A second full-sized reload, from the Sagunto terminal
on 22 January, remains on the schedule but could also be cancelled if Enagas
continues to deem the system heavily undersupplied. Diane Pallardy

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PSV PRICE ASSESSMENT ITALY

11 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh

Period Bid Offer Diff Data used

Volatility
index PSV-TTF Day-
ahead spread
Day-ahead 27.900 28.250 5.700 B 128.6%
BOM 23.600* 23.800* 2.663 I n/a

rises to €5/MWh
February '21 23.000 23.075 2.450 B 79.8%
March '21 21.225 21.575 1.675 B 72.2%
April '21 19.225* 19.625* 0.675 B < 20 Days
Q2 '21 18.700 19.000 0.675 B 43.7% Outlook
Q3 '21 18.000* 18.200* 0.425 I 37.8% Three LNG cargoes expected to deliver by 20
Q4 '21 19.425* 19.675* 0.500 I 34.8% January
Q1 '22 19.625* 19.775* 0.475 I < 20 Days Temperature to remain below seasonal norms
Gas Year 21 17.975* 18.225* 0.250 I 26.6% until week 3
Year 2022 17.425 17.650 0.213 B 23.4% S torage withdrawals likely to stay supported
Year 2023 16.450* 16.950* 0.263 I < 20 Days
Prompt contracts on Italy’s natural gas market
Summer 21 18.350 18.600 0.550 B 40.5%
posted staggering gains on Monday, cementing
Winter 21 19.525 19.725 0.488 B 32.0%
an upward trajectory seen already on Friday’s ses-
Summer 22 16.425 16.700 0.013 B 22.8%
sion.
*Indicative bid/offers ❯❯ Trades
The bullish trend led to a substantial widen-
Data used key: B – bid/offer, T – Transaction, S – Spread, F – Fundamentals, I – Interpolation/extrapolation. The key ing of the spread of the PSV Day-ahead to its TTF
codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment. counterpart, which was assessed at €5.925/MWh
on Monday’s closing, up by over €3/MWh com-
HEREN® PSV DAY-AHEAD INDEX pared with Friday’s price differential.
January This indicates imports from the northwest Eu-
12 January Previous Cumul. rope via the Transitgas pipe could be increasingly
Price, €/MWh 25.957 21.388 21.078 bolstered in the short-term.
No. of trades 201 203 917 Storage withdrawals surged day-on-day, mov-
Volume, MWh 291,000 230,640 1,291,560 ing from 9.9bcm to 120bcm amid a strong back-
wardation of the Day-ahead to the front-month
ITALIAN SPARK SPREADS FOR 49.13% FUEL EFFICIENCY February ‘21 product.
11 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh As seen by the latest data released by Met-
Period PSV Spark spread Spark diff Desk, below-seasonal temperatures are expected
February '21 23.04 23.23 -1.64 to persist until week 3, bolstering gas-fired power
March '21 21.40 19.14 -0.04 generation, although wet and snow spells in week
April '21 19.43 13.96 -0.03 3 are equally predicted to improve hydro produc-
Q2 '21 18.85 16.88 -0.38
tion, which may therefore compete with gas
generation.
Q3 '21 18.10 23.43 0.06
Wind output is instead expected to remain in
Q4 '21 19.55 22.28 0.33
line with seasonal average. Scarcity of LNG delivery
Q1 '22 19.70 20.50 -0.67
will also likely exacerbate bullishness on the short-
Summer 21 18.48 20.16 -0.16 term. Federica Di Sario
Year 2022 17.54 21.13 -0.11

ITALIAN FUNDAMENTALS SUMMARY, MCM/DAY - 10 JAN 2021

Day on Day Year on Year
Daily Total Difference % Change Difference % Change
Parameter
Production 0.02 -0.01 -33.33 -11.07 -99.82
Import 182.03 -1.27 -0.69 6.33 3.60
LNG Sendout 9.37 0.01 0.11 -34.05 -78.42
Storage into System 100.86 -14.80 -12.80 -18.64 -15.60
Supply total 292.28 -16.07 -5.21 -57.44 -16.42
Internal Demand 300.94 -13.58 -4.32 -27.03 -8.24
Exports 1.04 -1.03 -49.76 0.19 22.04
Storage from System 0.00 0.00 - 0.00 -
Demand total 301.98 -14.61 -4.61 -26.84 -8.16
*
estimated.

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TURKISH GAS PRICE ASSESSMENT 11 JANUARY 2021

TL/kscm $/MWh €/MWh $/MMBtu
Data
Period Bid Offer Diff used Midpoint Diff Midpoint Diff Midpoint Diff
Day-ahead 1,276.000* 1,296.000* -6.000 I 16.159 -0.329 13.290 -0.175 4.736 -0.096
Indicative bid/offers
*

Data used key: B – bid/offer, T – Transaction, S – Spread, F – Fundamentals, I – Interpolation/extrapolation. The key codes represent the primary data type used to make the assessment.

EXCHANGE RATES 11 JANUARY 2021 £ TURKEY

Period TL € $
Day-ahead 0.190 0.889 0.724 Turkish gas price falls as
Source: ICIS, based on Bloomberg data
demand softens
NO TURKISH GAS TRADES REPORTED Outlook
LNG supplies reduced as Iranian imports limited

Turkish gas prices have been ticking lower since the beginning of the year, reflecting
softening demand.
The daily price published on Monday stood at TL1285.85/kscm on the energy exchange
EPIAS, TL37.03/kscm lower since the first day of January.
System withdrawals have been falling, hovering around 176mcm/day on Sunday, some
25mcm/day lower than the monthly peak of 201mcm/day reached on 6 January, according
to EPIAS transparency data.
Meanwhile, LNG supplies remain reduced with only three cargoes scheduled to arrive
between 13-21 January, according to LNG Edge.
Two of the cargoes will be delivered on a contractual basis to the incumbent BOTAS
from Algeria and Nigeria, while a third will arrive from the US’ Cove Point on 21 January,
according to the same source.
Pipeline imports from Iran remain reduced to a third following technical issues at a
compressor station reported in the final days of December. BOTAS was expected to carry
out repair works and ramp up volumes within 10 days after the incident. Aura Sabadus

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Across the markets Back to
contents

Month-ahead price assessment snapshot: 11 January Month-ahead price assessment (past 30 days)
€/MWh €/MWh NBP Zeebrugge
TTF NCG
30 27

25 25
23
20
21
15
19
10
17
5 15
0 13
NBP Zee- ZTP TTF PEG NCG GAS- VTP Czech PVB PSV 24 Nov 02 Dec 10 Dec 18 Dec 30 Dec 11 Jan
brugge POOL 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021
Source: ICIS Source: ICIS

Front season price assessment (past 30 days) TTF quarter+2 vs gas oil 0.1%
€/MWh €/MWh Barges FOB ARA, $/tonne
NBP Zeebrugge
18 20.0 700
TTF NCG TTF
Gas oil 0.1%
17 17.5 600

16 15.0 500

15 12.5 400

14 10.0 300

13 7.5 200

12 5.0 100
24 Nov 02 Dec 10 Dec 18 Dec 30 Dec 11 Jan Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021
Source: ICIS Source: ICIS

East Asia LNG vs TTF front-month historic closes

$/mmbtu EAX month+1 TTF month+1
20

16

12

0
Dec Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2019 2020 2021
Source: ICIS

CONTINENTAL PRICE ASSESSMENTS 11 JANUARY 2021 €/MWh

Zeebrugge TTF NBP
Period Bid Offer Diff Bid Offer Diff Bid Offer Diff
Day-ahead 23.098* 23.183* 2.472 22.125* 22.175* 1.800 25.540* 25.578* 2.267
Weekend 22.916* 23.106* 2.290 21.900* 22.150* 1.625 25.368* 25.557* 2.019
WDNW 23.303* 23.379* 2.659 22.250* 22.450* 1.988 25.707* 25.783* 2.539
BOM 23.217* 23.407* 2.681 22.250 22.400 2.013 25.271* 25.460* 2.192
February '21 22.820* 22.848* 2.239 22.300 22.325 1.950 25.393* 25.422* 2.375
March '21 20.814* 20.852* 1.287 20.875 20.925 1.363 22.545* 22.583* 1.526
April '21 18.734* 18.800* 1.001 18.225 18.275 0.713 19.235* 19.301* 0.831
Q2 '21 17.288* 17.421* 0.465 17.500* 17.550* 0.538 17.402* 17.534* 0.512
Q3 '21 16.942* 17.074* 0.444 17.150 17.200 0.513 16.244* 16.376* 0.302
Q4 '21 18.640* 18.782* 0.437 18.350* 18.450* 0.388 19.215* 19.356* 0.456
Q1 '22 19.064* 19.205* 0.437 18.800* 18.850* 0.388 20.409* 20.550* 0.420
Q2 '22 15.297* 15.401* 0.037 15.550* 15.625* 0.150 14.941* 15.044* 0.036
Q3 '22 15.106* 15.209* 0.037 15.350* 15.425* 0.150 14.430* 14.534* 0.036
Gas Year 21 17.029* 17.151* 0.236 17.025* 17.100* 0.275 17.245* 17.367* 0.237
Year 2022 16.693* 16.796* 0.165 16.550* 16.625* 0.188 16.627* 16.731* 0.156
Year 2023 n/a n/a n/a 15.275* 15.775* 0.088 15.366* 15.450* 0.186
Year 2024 n/a n/a n/a 14.775* 15.275* 0.063 n/a n/a n/a
Year 2025 n/a n/a n/a 14.575* 15.075* 0.025 n/a n/a n/a
Summer 21 17.115* 17.247* 0.455 17.325* 17.375* 0.525 16.822* 16.954* 0.407
Winter 21 18.853* 18.994* 0.437 18.575* 18.650* 0.388 19.813* 19.954* 0.438
Summer 22 15.201* 15.305* 0.037 15.450* 15.525* 0.150 14.685* 14.788* 0.036
Winter 22 n/a n/a n/a 16.725* 16.825* 0.038 17.549* 17.624* 0.148
Summer 23 n/a n/a n/a 14.550* 14.725* 0.088 13.595* 13.632* 0.179
Winter 23 n/a n/a n/a 15.825* 16.325* 0.075 16.671* 16.856* 0.258
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Supply/demand data Back to
contents

British storage British LDZ and NTS demand

mcm mcm NTS day-ahead LDZ
3,000 450
2020/21 2019/20 2018/19
2017/18 2016/17 400
2,500
350
2,000 300
250
1,500
200
1,000 150
100
500 50
0 0
11 Oct 01 Nov 01 Dec 01 Jan
1 Oct 1 Jan 31 Mar 30 Jun 29 Sep 2020 2020 2020 2021
Source: National Grid Source: National Grid

Sources of British supply: 10 January 2021 OCM SAP vs NTS demand

Interconnector mcm NTS demand SAP p/th
10.63% 450 90
Storage
4.56% 400 80
BBL 350 70
11.52%
300 60
UKCS
24.75% 250 50
200 40
LNG 150 30
5.82% 100 20
50 10
0 0
Norway 13 Dec 19 Dec 25 Dec 31 Dec 04 Jan 10 Jan
42.72% 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021
Source: National Grid and Gassco Source: National Grid

LNG end of day flows BBL flows vs prompt NBP/TTF differential

mcm Isle of Grain Milford Haven - Dragon mcm BBL flows NBP/TTF differential €/MWh
Grain NTS2 Milford Haven - South Hook 60 3.0
100

50 2.5
80
40 2.0
60
30 1.5
40
20 1.0
20 10 0.5

0 0 0.0
10 Dec 16 Dec 22 Dec 28 Dec 03 Jan 09 Jan 17 Nov 25 Nov 03 Dec 11 Dec 22 Dec 08 Jan
2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021
Source: National Grid Source: National Grid and ICIS

Interconnector flows vs IUK shipper nominations Prompt basis vs Interconnector flows

mcm Actual flow Day-ahead nominations (18:00) mcm Actual flow NBP-Zeebrugge day-ahead spread p/th
NBP-TTF day-ahead spread
50 50 8
40
40 6
30
30 4
20
20 2
10

0 10 0

-10 0 -2
08 Dec 14 Dec 24 Dec 30 Dec 04 Jan 10 Jan 25 Nov 03 Dec 11 Dec 29 Dec 08 Jan
2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021
Source: Interconnector UK Source: Interconnector UK and ICIS

Data sourced from ICIS, National Grid, ICE Endex and Interconnector UK

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News Back to
contents

Ukraine gas TSO reduces Polish book more capacity now because they are
comfortable keeping the gas in Ukrainian

short-haul amid overbooking storage rather than exporting it to Poland,” a

Polish trader said.
A GTSO source said there was limited physi-
The Ukrainian transmission system opera- Meanwhile, short-haul exit capacity has cal capacity available on the Polish border.
tor GTSO said on Monday it had limited short- been higher than 3mcm/day in recent days as The constraints are linked to congestion
haul natural gas capacity to Poland because of some companies had been looking to withdraw in southern Poland which makes it difficult to
overbookings. gas from storage amid high European demand. expand the border capacity.
GTSO restricted short-haul to 1.7million This meant the company had to limit short- He said there was ample capacity available
cubic metres/day out of a total 3mcm/day as haul capacity to just 1.7mcm/day. on Ukraine’s other borders with Slovakia and
bookings have been exceeding physical capac- Short-haul is provided on an interruptible Hungary.
ity. basis and can only be offered if there is techni-
The service allows companies to ship gas to cal capacity. FLOWS TO EUROPE
and from Ukraine with a view to inject or with- One trader noted that capacity bookings Meanwhile, GTSO said overall flows to
draw from storage and is offered at reduced had been higher on the Ukrainian-Polish bor- European countries were normal over the
tariffs. der since the beginning of the year. weekend and at the start of the week despite
GTSO can provide a daily exit capacity of Most of the capacity is typically booked by an explosion on a part of the pipeline in the
12.9million cubic metres. Of this, 11.1mcm/ Russia’s Gazprom, although the company also northeastern Poltava region on Saturday.
day was reportedly booked by Gazprom for has the option to export gas to Poland and Flows were redirected to other sections im-
usual monthly transit, with another 120,000 western Europe via the Yamal pipeline which mediately after the incident.
cubic metres being recently booked for daily crosses Belarus before entering Poland. Supplies to 17 villages were affected on
capacity. “I don’t see why traders would want to Saturday but restored on Sunday morning.
GTSO said police, the emergency services of
Gas flows at Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Poland, Slovakia Ukraine as well as security services were investi-
Million cubic metres/day UA-PL UA-HU UA-SK gating the causes of the accident, including the
140 possibility of sabotage.
Speaking to ICIS, GTSO CEO Sergiy Ma-
120
kogon said the impact of the incident was
100 minimised because the system was built to
80
transport 146billion cubic metres, which means
there is ample spare capacity to allow gas to be
60 rerouted in case of incidents.
40 “We allocate about $200m annually in regu-
lar maintenance and $1.5bn is allocated for the
20
next 10 years in modernisation. It will be focused
0 on diagnostic, digitalisation of all processes and
01 Dec 06 Dec 12 Dec 18 Dec 24 Dec 30 Dec 05 Jan 10 Jan optimisation of the system for the new volumes
2020 2021
Source: GTSO of gas,” he said. Aura Sabadus

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News Back to
contents

OUTLOOK FOR 2021

Italian gas
Rising LNG storage and regasification capac-
ity, alongside increasing pipeline supply, are
likely to be the key drivers of Italian natural gas
PSV prices in 2021.
PSV near-curve premiums over the Dutch
TTF hub declined in the second half of 2020
due to low demand following mild winter
months.
This reduced imports from northwest Eu-
rope via the Transitgas pipeline, which normally
represents a marginal source of supply for Italy.
Going forward, the 2022 closure of the
Netherlands’ giant Groningen field will likely
tighten the PSV premium over the TTF as pro-
duction ends..
Azeri gas imports entering Italy at the
Melendugno entry point via the Trans Adriatic
Pipeline (TAP), which crosses Greece and Alba-
nia, began flowing on 31 December, easing the
Italian supply picture compared with the north
Europe, where scarce LNG arrivals are set to
last until the end of first quarter.
From 31 December 2020, TAP imports
have averaged around 11 million cubic metres
(mcm)/day. TAP has a total capacity of 28mcm/
day, of which 95% has been already secured
through long-term contracts for 25 years.
Capacity holders and Azerbaijan’s Shah
Deniz field owner agreed on a 15-month
ramp-up period for contracted flows, starting
with 40% of the pipeline’s capability..
In July 2021 a market test for the expansion
of TAP capacity will take place.
This could result in a doubling of the link’s
capacity to 20 billion cubic meters (bcm)/year.
Following additional supply and pressure to
the PSV, market participants polled by ICIS said
Italy could start exporting via Transitgas by the
fourth quarter of 2021, depending on domes-
tic seasonal demand and storage site levels.
INCREASED LNG CAPACITY
The owner of the onshore LNG Panigaglia
terminal, Snam Rete Gas, announced in July
2020 that the site’s storage capacity will double
by the end of 2021. This involves bringing a
50,000cbm tank back online after being taken
out of service five years ago.
At the same time, the Adriatic LNG termi-
nal announced that its regasification capacity
is expected to rise by 1bcm/year, although the
timeline remains unclear.
Previously, Italian regulator ARERA intro-
duced new regulations allowing Q-Flex vessels,
which have capacity for up to 216,000cbm
compared to standard 130,00-170,000cbm
cargoes, to dock at the Adriatic terminal.
The regulator also stated that the OLT Tos-
cana terminal provide third-party access.
This underlies the growing role of LNG in
the Italian supply mix for 2021.
SUMMER INJECTIONS & STORAGE
Seasonal auctions to book storage capacity are
set to take place by the end of the first quarter
on the pan-European PRISMA platform.
The Italian-regulated storage regime is
quite rigid as it sets withdrawal quotas for
shippers to meet during the winter season and
injection quotas in summer.
Currently Italian storage sites are seven per-
centage points emptier than the same time last
year, suggesting high injection demand for the
summer months could support the PSV premium
to the TTF for that period. Marta Del Buono

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News Back to
contents

MARKET DRIVERS FOR CRUDE OIL DAILY OIL SUMMARY

Factor 7 Days Outlook Impact
The fallout from the riot in the US last week was expected to
cause some market volatility over the coming sessions. Calls Oil prices were mixed on Monday, as a firmer
for President Donald Trump’s removal from office could see US dollar and coronavirus angst dampened
the market spooked. Vaccine rollout programmes continue investors risk appetite.
Geopolitics to be extended across the world with hopes it could contain Bullish
coming waves of the virus. Though many rollouts have been A stronger US dollar stoked selling pres-
beset with issues. South Korea and Iran’s clash over a captured sures for oil market investors on Monday.
tanker in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to further tension Foreign exchange traders have scaled back
over supply. bets on Congress pumping further money
Saudi Arabia’s voluntary promise to make 1m bbl/day of cuts into the economy with stimulus packages.
to production in February and March buoyed the market. Additionally, the greenback is seeing support
Kazakhstan and Russia were expected to increase their output, from an increase in Treasury bond yields.
Supply which could see a glut in the market. Iraq, Qatar, Azerbaijan, NA
and other major producers all posted larger preliminary Lacklustre European demand continued to
loading schedules for February. The blockade at the Libyan be a thorn in the bulls side on Monday, with
FUNDAMENTALS

port of Hariga ended allowing supplies through again. the recent ramping up of mobility restrictions
Chinese demand was beginning to wane after several months set to curtail demand further. Policy makers in
of strong showing. The world’s biggest importer was believed the United Kingdom are mulling even stricter
to be relying heavily on accrued stocks as the price of crude measures to combat the spread of the new,
Demand NA
surges on vaccine hopes. Several Middle Eastern producers more infectious coronavirus variant. World-
have raised the official selling prices for their grades largely
also due to the vaccine.
wide coronavirus cases are nearing 90 million,
while deaths are ticking closer to the grim 2
The dollar was up over the past week, before falling in the million milestone.
new session. Hopes for increases to the stimulus package
US Dollar passed recently by Congress spurred some gains. Joe Biden’s NA There were also mounting concerns that
incoming administration have made overtures to upping a re-emergence of cases in China could dent
payments to individual US households. consumption. Mainland China saw the big-
Positivity built due to the vaccine rollouts globally. The gest daily increase in infections in more than
unfolding events in the US continued to cause concern over five months. Chinese crude imports provided
Sentiment stability and the country’s economy. However, some concerns Bullish a crucial lifeline for the oil market in 2020,
over supply were also helping to provide hope for higher when many other nations were sidelined by
prices.
dwindling end-user demand. Richard Price
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News Back to
contents

PSV moves above TTF PSV Day-ahead index moves above TTF on tighter supply
€/MWh million cubuc meters (mcm)
as Italian LNG supply 25
PSV Day-ahead index '21 LNG sendout mcm '20
50
TTF Day-ahead index '21 LNG sendout mcm '21
declines
20 40
❯❯ Continued from page 1
PIPELINE FLOWS 15 30
Italian imports via the Transitgas pipeline have
started to rise following limited deliveries in late
10 20
2020 as PSV contracts moved below the TTF.
On 6 January the PSV Day-ahead closed
5 10
€2.113/MWh above the TTF, after closing at a
discount the previous session.
0 0
The day after the volume delivered via Tran- 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan
sitgas, a marginal source of supply into Italy via Source: ICIS

northwest Europe, increased to more than 10

million cubic metres (mcm), after virtually no Transitgas imports vs the PSV-TTF Day-ahead spread
flows the previous session. €/MWh mcm
PSV-TTF Day-ahead spread Transitgas flows
Transitgas flows into Italy rose in the ses- 3 25
sions that followed as the PSV remained the
2 20
premium market.
The country has also been receiving around 1 15
11 million cubic metres (mcm) per day via TAP,
0 10
although this has not been enough to offset to
decline in LNG sendout. -1 5
Long-term capacity holders and Azerbai-
jan’s Shah Deniz field owner have agreed a -2 0

15-month ramp-up period for long-term con- -3 -5

tracted flows, starting with 40% of capacity 01 Dec 07 Dec 11 Dec 17 Dec 23 Dec 31 Dec 06 Jan 11 Jan
2020 2021
initially. Marta Del Buono

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News Back to
contents

Shippers call for equal tariffs on Poland-Lithuania interconnector

❯❯ Continued from page 1
ity are over 50% more than towards Lithuania,
charges shippers argued should be equalised.
Unequal transmission tariffs are the result
of separate decisions by regulatory authorities
in each country.
Both pipeline operators Amber Grid and
Gaz-System were contacted for comment by
ICIS on their intended response to shipper
comments.
Amber Grid announced on 29 December
that the pipeline had reached 60% completion.
GIPL is planned to have annual capacity
of 2.4 billion cubic metres (bcm) from Poland
to Lithuania and 1.9bcm/year in the opposite
direction, serving as a connection between the
Baltic region and central Europe.

DECEMBER LIQUIDITY
Relative liquidity over December for Finland,
Latvia-Estonia and Lithuania was in line with
the three country’s gas markets as a whole over
2020. The markets all trade on the GET Baltic
exchange
Lithuania remained the region’s most-liquid
market in December 2020 with 828GWh of
daily products bought and sold over the month.
This total was roughly flat with November’s
traded volume.
Liquidity on Finnish and Latvian-Estonian
daily markets increased month-on-month in
December, with 662GWh traded in Finland and
397GWh in Latvia-Estonia.
This represents a 15% increase on Novem-
ber’s traded volumes in Finland while Latvia-
Estonia’s December total almost doubled.
Prices on the Finnish market rose above
Lithuanian contracts at the start of December
and remained at a premium for all but three
days late on in the month.
Ample Lithuanian LNG supply and reduced
capacity on the Estonia-to-Finland Balticco-
nnector over the month could have contributed
to the Finland-Lithuanian price flip in Decem-
ber.
Lithuanian LNG sendout averaged 6 million
cubic metres (mcm)/day in December, up from
4.9mcm/day in November.
LNG Edge showed 343,000cbm was deliv-
ered at the Klaipeda LNG terminal in December,
over double November’s volume.
Balticconnector transmission capac-
ity is down about 40% through December
2020-January 2021 following construction
delays of the Puiatu compressor station, ac-
cording to Finnish TSO Gasgrid.
Cheaper Lithuanian prices in December also
saw the Lithuanian premium over Latvian-Esto-
nian prices narrow in December. Kaja Sillett

For an interactive graphic, click here.

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ESGM 27.006 | 11 January 2021 | www.icis.com/energy 17

UK Secondary Data Back to
contents

ICE UK NATURAL GAS FUTURES 11 JANUARY 2021 p/th

Settle Change High Low Total Open Settle Change High Low Total Open
Period p/th p/th p/th p/th Lots m th interest Period p/th p/th p/th p/th Lots m th interest
Feb-21 66.300 5.610 68.04 63.28 15,405 431.34 65,360 Q2 21 46.223 1.622 46.46 45.60 395 35.95
Mar-21 59.320 4.060 60.33 56.65 7,635 236.69 66,560 Q3 21 43.391 1.240 43.46 42.52 230 21.16
Apr-21 50.820 2.430 51.47 49.64 4,225 126.75 30,625 Q4 21 50.951 1.267
May-21 44.720 1.220 45.05 44.31 2,655 82.31 24,855 Q1 22 54.477 1.470
Jun-21 43.180 1.230 43.45 43.13 1,035 31.05 17,900 Q2 22 41.326 0.750
Jul-21 42.580 1.230 635 19.68 15,605 Q3 22 37.376 0.084
Aug-21 43.360 1.190 635 19.68 15,715 Q4 22 45.501 0.147
Sep-21 44.260 1.300 635 19.05 15,490 Q1 23 48.666 0.287
Oct-21 47.170 1.090 410 12.71 15,480 Q2 23 37.261 0.073
Nov-21 51.510 1.280 410 12.30 15,580 Q3 23 35.601 -0.021
Dec-21 54.190 1.430 410 12.71 15,530 Q4 23 45.398 0.323
Jan-22 56.180 1.450 410 12.71 15,235 Quarterly Total 625 57.11
Feb-22 56.010 1.470 410 11.48 15,235 SU'21 44.799 1.429 45.20 44.06 440 80.52
Mar-22 51.390 1.490 410 12.71 15,235 WI'21 52.695 1.368 52.85 52.00 410 74.62
Apr-22 45.120 1.100 160 4.80 7,050 SU'22 39.340 0.415 39.70 39.20 160 29.28
May-22 40.950 0.750 160 4.96 7,050 WI'22 47.066 0.216 47.31 46.95 115 20.93
Jun-22 37.920 0.400 160 4.80 7,050 SU'23 36.427 0.027 36.55 36.45 65 11.89
Monthly Total 35,800 1,055.73 365,555 WI'23 45.102 0.483
SU'24 36.764 0.700
February Settlement 66.3 WI'24 45.709 0.700
For further information, contact Jason
February Contract index 58.270 Pegley on +44 (0)207 065 7743, SU'25 36.957 0.700
ICE Futures Europe, Milton Gate, 60 Yearly Total 1,190 217.24
February Weighted Average 65.49
Chiswell Street, London EC1Y 4SA.
Final January Contract Index 46.810 www.theice.com

ICE ENDEX OCM SMP/SAP REPORT GAS DAY 8 JANUARY 2021 - 10 JANUARY 2021 p/th

Gas Day SAP SMP buy SMP sell SAP 7 day SAP 30 day
8 62.77 63.90 61.64 57.02 49.59
9 62.69 63.82 61.57 57.83 50.33
10 61.20 62.32 59.50 58.58 51.01

DAY-AHEAD BEACH CAPACITY PRICES OIL MARKET PRICE ASSESSMENTS

11 JANUARY 2021 (16:30 UK TIME) 11 JANUARY 2021
Bid Yearly ICE Brent ($/barrel) 55.58 0.10
Terminal p/th cumulative Gas oil 0.1% (barges 438.75 440.75 2.00
Bacton 0.100 0.100 FOB ARA $/tonne)
St Fergus 0.100 0.100 Fuel oil 1% (barges 311.75 316.50 -0.80
Teesside 0.100 0.100 FOB ARA $/tonne)
*Gas oil and fuel oil prices supplied by ICIS pricing
Theddlethorpe 0.100 0.100
Easington 0.100 0.100

NATIONAL GRID DAILY CAPACITY SUMMARY

National Grid has become aware of an intermittent error relating to the D0 Daily Firm Available data, whereby the quantity
has been frequently overstated. As a result, ICIS is not immediately able to publish the British daily capacity summary.

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Trades Back to
contents

EUROPEAN OTC TRADES VOLUME 11 JANUARY 2021

Country Trading location Total MWh % curve* % prompt Number of trades

Austria VTP 4342580 97.4 2.6 106
Belgium Zeebrugge 823676 94.6 5.4 47
Belgium ZTP 2373890 99.4 0.6 31
Britain NBP 10997635 58.7 41.3 919
Czech Republic Czech Republic 110952 52.7 47.3 25
France PEG 2351765 87.6 12.4 139
Germany GASPOOL 2420385 85.0 15.0 186
Germany NCG 8074565 83.9 16.1 318

Hungary MGP n/a n/a n/a 0

Italy PSV 5395310 87.9 12.1 366
Netherlands TTF 109752315 92.6 7.4 4414
Poland Poland n/a n/a n/a 0
Slovakia Slovakia 4920 n/a 100.0 2
Spain PVB 135570 85.8 14.2 15

EUROPEAN OTC TRADED RANGES 11 JANUARY 2021

Day-ahead February '21 Q2 '21 Summer 21 Year 2022
Trading
Country Location Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
Austria VTP 20.400 21.550 20.100 22.500 18.025 18.065 17.875 17.875 16.850 16.850
Belgium Zeebrugge 22.189 22.189 22.101 22.366 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Belgium ZTP 22.050 23.300 21.880 22.550 n/a n/a 17.200 17.200 n/a n/a
Britain NBP 24.272 25.748 24.088 25.592 17.383 17.534 16.917 16.917 n/a n/a
Czech Czech
Republic Republic 20.800 21.050 21.125 21.125 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
France PEG 21.975 23.500 21.950 22.875 n/a n/a 17.250 17.250 n/a n/a
Germany GASPOOL 21.075 22.000 20.650 21.875 n/a n/a 17.250 17.500 16.650 16.650
Germany NCG 21.000 21.900 20.680 21.600 17.650 17.865 17.435 17.625 16.575 16.650
Hungary MGP n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Italy PSV 24.100 27.900 21.500 24.800 18.875 18.875 18.325 18.400 17.425 17.450
Netherlands TTF 21.250 22.800 20.650 22.620 17.150 17.525 16.980 17.400 16.400 16.555
Poland Poland n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Slovakia Slovakia 20.500 20.820 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Spain PVB 27.000 31.000 26.000 26.000 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

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Weather Back to
contents

Days 1-5 Outlook: 12-16 January

A low pressure centre will sink southwards from southern

Scandinavia to Poland Tuesday-Thursday and onwards to
Ukraine and the southeast by Friday, pulling a cold airmass
from Russia and below normal temperatures into eastern
and southeastern Europe.
In the west, a ridge of high pressure building over Iberia
will flare northwards over France to the British Isles, then
extending to central Europe and southern Nordics later in
the period, bringing a spell of dry weather (much drier for
Spain), although some models do signal towards a deeper
low arriving just to the north of the British Isles Saturday
which could bring windier/wetter weather with a wedge of
milder Atlantic air.
Mean temperature anomalies will be -2 to 0°C for eastern
Britain, while southwest Britain to France, +1 to +2°C.
Widely, -2 to 0°C but -2 to -4°C for inland Spain, parts of
Scandinavia and Belarus. Turkey +2 to +4°C, locally +8°C.

Days 6-10 Outlook: 17-21 January

Forecast confidence is low, especially in the north and west

of Europe with notable model differences from Sunday
with the ECMWF OP/ENS signaling towards a milder Atl
flow.
Moderate confidence in cold extending from Russia to east
and southeast of Europe with the strongest cold early.
Despite the low confidence, the general theme is towards
higher pressure over Iberia and southeastern Europe,
although southern Italy to Greece and Turkey may see
lower pressure and more unsettled conditions.
Low pressure passing over the northwest with wetter/
windier weather but this could open the door to cold
intrusions from the north.
Below to well below normal Scandinavia but generally dry
with <50% of average precipitation.
Mean temperature anomalies should be 0 to -2°C widely
but 0 to +1°C for parts of the British Isles, Benelux and
France. Eastern and southeastern Europe, -5 to -7°C.
<8 8-6 6-4 4-2 2-0 0 0-2 2-4 4-6 6-8 8>
BELOW NORMAL ABOVE NORMAL

Weather forecast graphics and commentary provided in this publication are supplied by Weather Services International (WSI). WSI provides a wide range of pan-European weather forecasts,
commentary and graphics specifically tailored for the energy marketplace. For additional information or to subscribe to our free quarterly WSI Energycast Europe Newsletter please e-mail
energy@wsieurope.com or visit www.wsieurope.com.

European Spot
Gas Markets

99 Bishopsgate, Editor, ESGM Head of Sales Global Operations Manager

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