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Analyzing Dar es Salaam Urban Change and its Spatial Pattern

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 International Journal of Urban Planning and Transportation, ISSN:2051-9281, Vol.31 Issue.1
Analyzing Dar es Salaam Urban Change and its
Spatial Pattern
Charles Cosmas Mkalawa
Doctor: Ministry of Lands, Housing & Human Settlements Development.
ABSTRACT
Dar es Salaam, a rapid growing city in sub-Sahara Africa
has been experiencing substantial changes on its spatial
pattern and land cover recently. These changes have been
driven by number of factors include; transport and
communication, internal and international migration, high
natural growth rates of urban populations, public policies
and agglomeration economies. Unluckily, urban expansion
has taken the form “peripherization “ that is characterized
by large Peri-Urban areas with informal or illegal pattern of
land use, combined with lack of infrastructure ,public
facilities ,lack of services ,and often accompanied by lack of
both public transport and adequate access roads.
Urban change and spatial development pattern of the land
use/cover in the city of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, will be
quantified analyzed in this study. Therefore, it use land
cover maps of 1981, 1995 and 2009. Other spatial data used
are; settlements location, slope, and distance to the main
roads, rivers, and water bodies and streets layers. This study
will use Arc-GIS to process, analyzing data and displaying
the results.
This paper aims at, analyzing Dar es Salaam urban change
and its spatial pattern from the year 1980 to 2009.The result
of the study shows, Dar es Salaam structured as “four
fingers pattern structure” have not been in significant urban
land cover changes from 1981 to 1991, But it can be
literally noted significantly from 1991 to 2009, where, its
urban cover expanded from 12,988 to 20,607 hectares, about
47% increase. Urban land cover in Dar es Salaam is
growing at annual rate of 6%. Its expansion is accelerated
by population growth.
Keywords - Urban Spatial pattern; urban change; Land
use/Cover; Slope; Proximity
1. INTRODUCTION
For a city to be prosperous, it must have a generous and well
designed pattern(UN-Habitat 2012; UN-Habitat 2013 ), a
good city pattern boost infrastructure
development ,enhances environmental sustainability,
supports higher productivity ,enriches quality of life ,and
promote equity and social inclusion. In cities of
Africa ,Asia , Latin America and the Caribbean ,urban
expansion has taken the form “peripherization “ that is
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1138
characterized by large Peri-Urban areas with informal or
illegal pattern of land use, combined with lack of
infrastructure ,public facilities , lack of services ,and often
accompanied by lack of both public transport and adequate
access roads(UN-Habitat 2013 ). The large gap between
street connectivity in the city core and in the suburb areas is
the reflection of huge inequalities in most cities of Global
South cities.
Substantial number of studies has demonstrated that the
development between the development of high speed roads,
infrastructure network expansion, and spatial urban
expansion and land cover changes demonstrated that
transportation networks play an important role in urban
expansion. Equally, urban transportation system is a
complex system that is influenced by number of factors and
their interaction. Urban growth exhibits many patterns that
reshape the urban spatial structure, which cause different
changes to transportation system. Basing on aforementioned
fact, urban growth is strongly related to transportation with
reciprocal causes and effects. Previous studies have focused
only on causes and effects of transportation and urban
growth relationship. There is a lack on the spatial-temporal
aspects of the relation between land cover changes and city
spatial pattern. In essence, a proper understanding of the
spatial –temporal process of land cover changes and urban
dynamics is required. Therefore, research into the dynamics
of land cover changes, urban growth and transportation
network expansion in cities of Global south would enhance
and expand our knowledge of the reciprocal relationship
between urban land cover changes and city spatial pattern.
This paper indicate a dynamic assessment of land cover in
Dar es Salaam city based on linear and non linear complex
modeling of land cover spatial pattern, and quantifies land
cover changes that have taken place in relation to population,
slope and proximity between residences and working areas
to the main four roads of the case study, making four fingers
pattern shape of the city.
The objectives of this study are: to analyze how slope is
related to spatial pattern of the city by linking slope
characteristics with built up/urban area. To analyze Dar es
Salaam land cover changes in relation with spatial city
Pattern from 1980 to 2009.To quantify urban land cover
 International Journal of Urban Planning and Transportation, ISSN:2051-9281, Vol.31 Issue.1
changes in relation with urban spatial Pattern in the case
study area. To analyze the viability of public transport in
Dar es salaam by measuring the proximity of the residences
to the transportation nodes using the main roads.
The rest of this paper will be organized as follows: Section
2 literature review and background to the study, which
concentrates on understanding the concept spatial pattern in
relation with land cover, started by using a general and then
a specific approach. Section 3 will cover materials and
methods used for this study, which outline data, materials,
and the procedures carried out in order to arrive at the
findings. Section 4 Results of the research findings by
analyze and quantify the research findings. The last section
of this paper will be Section 5 provide some discussions and
conclusions regarding this study.
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Urban Spatial Pattern
Spatial pattern changes of social economic and physical
components at different scale lead to land cover change and
urban growth(Aljoufie 2013).Therefore, The interaction
between the development of urban spatial patterns is the key
factor shaping accessibility in cities for both physical and
social economic terms (UN-Habitat 2013b; Abhay Pethe ,
Ramakrishna Nallathiga et al. 2014).This has made most of
planners in Global North to plan prioritizing the city
pattern that provide accessibility to physical and social
economic activities(Schwanen and Mokhtarian 2005).
Irrespective to that most of the developing country cities,
Global south spatial forms are largely driven by the efforts
of low income households to secure land which is affordable
and in reasonable location, mostly in Peri-urban areas(UN-
Habitat 2009; UN-Habitat 2010; World Bank 2012; T. Esch,
M. Marconcini et al. 2014).Most of the settlements are in
high density along the main roads and decrease to low
density away from main roads (Narayanaraj and Wimberly
2012). Some literatures show that spatial planning decision
and patterns determine mobility of people within the city.
Also the pattern of sustainable transport is depending on;
uniform and density of infrastructure priorities, specific
commitment to public transport compared to cars; streets
planning giving attention to pedestrians and cyclist as part
of city mobility(UN-Habitat 2009).
Monocentric form of the city pattern design and planning
that are characterized many cities in colonial era started in
20th Century and accelerated with independence countries
from the 1950s onward. A monocentric urban form, have
the vast majority of jobs and commercial activities are
concentrated in the city centre and most households reside
on the periphery, most produce a radial trip(Šliužas 2004;
UN-Habitat 2013b). Street pattern become more irregular
following the peripherization of urban growth, which saw
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1139
poor families move to the outskirts, areas that lacked basic
services. These have turned into a situation that one in every
three city dwellers worldwide to lives in a slum(Owen and
Wong 2013). The streets in the suburban areas of cities in
developing world resemble slum areas, with irregular street
patterns with multiple unplanned dead end roads. The land
allocated for streets in most city cores is less than 15%,and
the situation is worse in suburbs areas where less than 10%
of the land is allocated to street(Šliužas 2004; UN-Habitat
2013 ).
2.2 Urban Change and Land cover
Physical components of urban growth are related to spatial
expansion, land cover change and land use change(Aljoufie
2013). The interaction between these components are
complex and non linear .Some of the factors and forces
cause these complex interaction including; transport and
communication, internal and international migration, high
natural growth rates of urban populations, public policies
and agglomeration economies. In most cases urban change
is brought by transformation of rural agriculture land to
urban use(Aljoufie 2013). Economic growth of worldwide
and Africa in particular, is inextricably linked with land
transformation to cities and towns(Krugell 2003) However,
land cover change is Caused by increasing of the land price
leading it to land use change(Abhay Pethe , Ramakrishna
Nallathiga et al. 2014).
Urbanization in simultaneous way to population growth of
cities it’s projected to increase rapid over next few
decades(UN-Habitat 2010). Therefore ,urban land cover
expansion is driven by urban population growth; increase of
house hold incomes leading to higher land consumption by
households, which become smaller while occupying larger
homes; expanding business and public facilities
accompanying higher house hold incomes; and inexpensive
transport(Shlomo Angel 2012).
2.3 Slope
The areas suitable for settlement should not be a high degree
steepness (Alparslan, Ince et al. 2008).Some literature
shows that, unplanned housing in developing countries are
located in steep slopes.These houses frequently have no
building codes enforcing ,this sort of housing and mainly
water is provided with no drainage provision .In most of
cases these slope lack any planned drainage
provision(Anderson, Holcombe et al. 2007). However,
Some studies shows that, informal settlements appear to
exhibit more dirt roads, less vegetation, less road
accessibility, higher texture contrast, more heterogeneity of
space between built up areas, steeper slopes and less
favorable terrain for dwellings than formal
settlements(Owen and Wong 2013 ).Though it has been said
above that the flat areas is suitable for settlements but ,the
 International Journal of Urban Planning and Transportation, ISSN:2051-9281, Vol.31 Issue.1
lower valley areas should not be too low which might lead
an impact of flooding(Fanhua Konga, Haiwei Yin et al.
2014).
2.4 Proximity
Proximity is an association nearness of origin and
destination to transportation nodes. Public transport can be a
viable option for a trip where access is easy means the
origin and destination are both close to transit station. A
study conducted in US pointed those residents located near
Transit Oriented Developments(TOD) tend to use public
transport five to six times of their trips out of ten. It state
that for residences with in half mile of a transportation node
station 27% of commuting trips were made using transit.
This share dropped drastically once house hold distance is
increase beyond the half mile range(Lindsey, Schofer et al.
2010).
2.5 Dar es Salaam Spatial Pattern and Land
cover
The four fingers linear pattern is the spatial structure of Dar
es Salaam city. Urbanization has extended significantly
along the coastal line and major arterial roads; Bagamoyo;
Morogoro ;Nyerere and Kilwa road, resulting in a
monocentric radial development pattern(Nkurunziza 2013).
This area is making a gentle slope flat land of the city.
However, the city is facing the problem of urban sprawl
mainly caused by the split between residential and
employment, trade and health zones(Diaz Olvera 2003).The
current public transport system in Dar es Salaam has great
difficult in coping with demographic and spatial growth of
the city and in meeting the basic needs of its
residences(Nkurunziza 2013).The pattern of urban mobility
reflects the social exclusion in Dar es Salaam city. Majority
of Dar es Salaam residences does not own and use private
vehicles .So in order to save the cost of transportation ,the
urban population (mainly poor)end up land locked in
marginal peripheries areas ,without adequate access to urban
facilities to urban facilities of the city(Diaz Olvera 2003;
Nkurunziza 2013). For example there are substantial
number of informal settlements around Manzese , temeke,
Mabibo, Mbagala where land use plan is not clear. These
has brought some problems as they do not have adequate
space and facilities to better serve the need of residents such
as; schools, hospitals, police stations, fire stations and open
spaces for children ,sports and other leisure uses. Empty
space is required to avoid crowding effect that can
compromise the quality of service, environment and
security .crowding resulting into a number of impacts on
environment and to city residents themselves including:
infrastructure deterioration, environmental pollution, loss of
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1140
natural habitats biodiversity and fertile soils, climate
impacts, waste, crime, social conflicts transportation or
traffic problems, eruption of water borne diseases, lack of
security, in accessibly of services, cultures
demoralization(Master Plan 2013). Some of the settlements
have been established on areas facing steep slope along
Msimbazi River around kigogo, mabibo and Ubungo, most
of these areas have been declared as hazardous areas(Master
Plan 1979). Some other settlements around steep slope
includes; Makongo, Changanyikeni areas and Ubungo-
Msewe. Besides, if the city is well planned would provide
number of significant merits, this merits includes; protection,
employment, raising living standards, prosperity societal
values, well being, trade and education(T. Esch, M.
Marconcini et al. 2014).
Spatial pattern of Dar es Salaam and its street design, make
difficult in accessing public transport which most of its
residents use. The viability and convenience of public
transport should be proximity of walking distance not more
than one kilometer from origin point of work or residence to
a transportation node. However, the situation in the city is
different where most of its citizen’s residential and working
places are located in a considerable distance than it supposes
to be(Shlomo Angel 2012; Master Plan 2013).
3. MATERIALS AND METHODS
3.1 Study Area
Dar es Salaam is located in East Africa along the Indian
Ocean, on a natural harbor with Zanzibar and Pemba islands.
Is located at 6° 48' South, 39° 17' East .The average altitude
of Dar es Salaam is 0 to 374m above sea level .The
Importance of Dar es Salaam is due to its strategic location
along the Indian Ocean which is become possible to service
other regions of Tanzania and neighboring countries most
land locked. Before 1974 Dar es Salaam used to be the
capital city of Tanzania, but now following the shift of the
capital to Dodoma it has remains as business and industrial
center of Tanzania. Dar es Salaam had only 50,765 people
in 1948 but now risen up to 4.3 Million people living in
approximate 1400 kilometer square of land with estimated
urban growth of 6% per annual.
Coastal cities like Dar es Salaam city are vulnerable to
rising sea levels (World Bank 2011; Mostafa A. El Sawwaf
and Ashraf K. Nazir 2012; Fanhua Konga, Haiwei Yin et al.
2014), to more intense precipitation cause the occurrence of
flooding in low laying areas and landslides on steep slopes,
and extended heat waves that threaten cities unaccustomed
to very heat season(World Bank 2011).
 International Journal of Urban Planning and Transportation, ISSN:2051-9281, Vol.31 Issue.1 1141

Figure 1: The four major roads of the study and main streets in the city

3.2 Data
The study utilizes a time series of land cover shape files,
and other data to quantify the spatial temporal land cover
changes and city spatial pattern expansion from 1981 to
2009.Some of the data collected for the accomplishment of
this study. The data collected from Institute of Resource
Assessments (IRA) University of Dar eS Salaam in
Tanzania and Ministry of Lands Housing and Human
Settlements Developments of Tanzania. This data include;
shape files layers for Slope, main roads and rivers, land
cover layers for 1981, 1991 and 2009 and Digital Elevation
Modal (DEM).The Soft ware used was Arc GIS (Arc scene,
Arc Map and Arc Catalog).
The study applied Geographical Information System (GIS)
and Remote Sensing (RS) techniques to accomplish major
procedures of the study objectives. Ready digitized Shape
files were projected to the a spatial reference of the study
area which is WGS Zone 37S.This was done in order to
make it possible for the calculations and quantification of
the land cover changes. Using aforementioned spatial data,
some of the maps were produced, to provide analysis base
of the city spatial pattern with the land cover changes.
Spatial data were also processed by creating two geo-data
bases of Personal and file Geo-database created through
Arch-Catalog and all of the feature classes and raster data
sets were imported. A digitization process was conducted to
create shape files and the required layers for study. The
shape files created include land cover 1981, 1991 and 2009.
The following are the list of maps and steps followed to
make these maps:
Slope map; this was made by downloading open source
data from Aster Global Digital Elevation Modal (Aster -
GDEM) of Japan www.asterweb.jpl.nasa.gov/gdem.asp,
which is provided for free. Therefore, digital elevation
modal (DEM) was availed. The study area was clipped from
DEM using Arc-Catalog option extension to have a suitable
area of the study. From DEM the slope was computed and
re-classified into percentages by using reclassification
option to fit them into few groups of percentages. The by

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 International Journal of Urban Planning and Transportation, ISSN:2051-9281, Vol.31 Issue.1 1142

using Arc-Map the output map produced see Figure 2.For
more clarification of steps, On the other hand, DEM has
been displayed by adding it on Arc scene to display it in
three dimensions (Figure 4), and then it has been added on
this paper by print screen and paste option.
Land cover maps; these three maps were produced by
taking land cover shape files of three base study years in
1981, 1991 and 2009. These shape files were clipped,
reclassified, eliminated and dissolved then after that a
geometric calculations were computed to quantify the
changes of land cover and a spatial pattern in respective
years. Then visualizing them made through maps and final
analyze a pattern of urban development from 1981 to 2009
see Figure 2.
Proximity map; this was a map made to analyze the
nearness between people’s residences and their work places
to their major transportation nodes. It calculated by taking a
buffer of rounding in a range of radius from 1km to 6 km
from the center point of a transportation node. Main layers
added to the Arc Map were major roads, buffers layers of
1km -6km, urban area and slope. Steps undertaken are also
illustrated in Figure 2.
3.3Theory and calculations
Some calculations done include; calculate basic land use
data for three years (1981, 1991 and 2009).Then after
quantify the urban growth rate of the urban area. It was
followed by analyzing land use/cover changes of the
respective years. Last but not least step was to visualize the
urban land cover change and growth through maps. Lastly
analyze spatial pattern of urban development from 1981 to
2009.

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 International Journal of Urban Planning and Transportation, ISSN:2051-9281, Vol.31 Issue.1 1143

Methodology for land cover change spatial pattern analysis and quantification

Land cover
DEM shape files Major
Rivers
Data 1981,1991 roads
and 2009

Arc
Catalog

Clip and Define

Dissolve Eliminate
Reclassification Projection

Spatial
Analyst tool

Slope,
Settlements
Surface Arc Map Over lay
Main road
buffer
Arc Scene

Slope Rivers, Major

Clip and roads and land
Reclassificati cover
on 1981,1991 2009 Proximity
Displaye
d DEM Map
Slope Map

Landcover Land cover

1981 1991

Key
Calculate
Land cover Geometry
Software 2009 ( Hectare)

Data Quantification table for land

cover changes 1981,1991 and
2009

Document

Page 1

Figure 2: The methodology flow chart for spatial pattern analysis of the Dar es Salaam land cover change

4. RESULTS
4.1 Slope with Urban Area
The observation made from the spatial data shows that, the
urban growth pattern is usually making a four finger pattern,
spreading up to follow its four major roads extending from
city center to the fringe. Number of residences has been
developed along these major four roads, as it provides ease
and quickly connectivity between their residences and their
daily job destinations. In the research conducted by this
study it shows that most of the settlements areas have been
established in between 10% to <70 percentage slope(Figure
3). This implicates that settlements nearby the ocean and flat
areas are more suitable for settlements. The Digital
Elevation Modal (DEM) Figure 4shows that the settlements
mostly have concentrated in flat areas compared to steep
areas of the land in the city.
Slope and altitude can be considered a major factor for
settlements establishments; the number of factors can be
realized including; avoiding flood risk by staying areas

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 International Journal of Urban Planning and Transportation, ISSN:2051-9281, Vol.31 Issue.1 1144

which are not of low elevation. There are some informal
residences located along river stream and steep slope
areas,in the last Master plan of 1979 and current Master plan
2012 have considered these areas as hazardous areas and
reserved for environment conservation and protection.
Coastal cities are vulnerable to raising sea levels, to more
intense precipitation that increases occurrences of flooding
in low laying areas like Mikocheni, Msasani and Kigogo .It
also lead to landslides on steep slopes. Due to lack of an
effective mechanism of city construction control it’s this
area where most of informal residences are located. There is
substantial number of informal settlements along the main
tributaries of river Msimbazi ,Kawe, Yombo and Tegeta.
Most of the residences are not well connected to the social
services and they are living in poor condition. These people
are mostly located in areas which are vulnerable to disasters,
its due to denser population and high costing housing in
formal areas which most of the poor cannot afford. it’s also
accumulation of assets ,services and variety of activities
within city center areas which the poor would love to avail.
The impact they bring to the environment including damage
of infrastructures, disruption of services, food scarcity and
an increase prevalence of vector and water borne diseases
such as malaria, dengue and rift valley fever It also leads to
water quality declines which increased health and sanitation
challenges. Increased of storm flooding is causing landslides
and erosion which causes the risk of lively hoods. There has
been number of conflicts over water resources around these
areas.
Poor or lack of solid –waste management systems poses
extreme hazards to health and water pollution. In relation to
the slope and terrain of Dar es Salaam much of extremely
environmental pollution has been witnessed in low slope
areas along the aforementioned rivers and it appear that
Waste management systems appeared to be absent ,with
solid waste disposed of direct adjacent in mounds ,trenches
and near water courses. Good example can be found along
Buguruni, Kigogo, Tabata,Ubungo, Mabibo and Kawe.
Some areas with moderate to high percentage slope, the
situation is moderate, experiences shows that most of them
are planned and suitable for human settlements.

Figure 3: Spatial Pattern of Dar es Salaam which contains substantial number of residences compared to other cities in the
country. Most of its settlements are located Moderate slope areas and growing up to follow the four major roads making up a
four fingers pattern

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 International Journal of Urban Planning and Transportation, ISSN:2051-9281, Vol.31 Issue.1 1145

Figure 4: Digital Elevation Modal shows the residential areas along the coast on flat area

4.2 Land Cover Changes and Spatial Pattern
from 1980 to 2009
The map below Figure 5 show that the city is clustered from
the city center and un evenly dispersed following the four
major roads .so In the city of Dar es Salaam, the clustering
of settlements and economic activities, along the major
roads radiating from and connecting separate metropolitan
areas, leads to gradual building -up of the urban fabric along
these four major arterial roads connections. Dar es Salaam
metropolitan core is arranged in a linear fashion making a
four fingers pattern (Figure 5).so urban cover and spatial
pattern has been shaped by transport networks.
From the colonial era to current the city has been extending
following these four major arterial roads. The map below
shows the increases of the intensity of city growth from
1981 to 2009, which is the focus of this study. It shows the
intensity is keeping on growing with time with population
and other divers off course.
This ribbon shaped of four fingers pattern like structure has
stretched for a long distance mainly in for major roads of
Morogoro, Bagamoyo, Kilwa and Pugu. Currently, urban
growth is extending in perpendicular directions. There are
some new urban nodes in areas where high ways are
intersecting such as Mwenge ,Ubungo, Buguruni, and
Tabata.
Along this development patterns of four major roads the city
are dominated by a fragmented pattern which is
characterized by high density areas which are single use and
result in patches of mono functional, dense built up areas.
Typically they are characterized by low cost residential
estates inoutskirt of the city, built separately from shopping,
commercial centers, business and directional centers,
industrial or recreational areas. There is high mobility cost
in Dar es Salaam due to the fact that large high ways are the
only connectivity between the origin and destination areas.
The land use in the city is influenced by these networks of
transportation since; economic activities requiring high
levels of accessibility to the cluster along main roads or
nodes close to major intersections of high way systems.
Residential developments also seek accessibility; therefore
the developments of new routes and transport system
provided important ways of structuring city in long term.
It is also along this corridor, where these four major roads
facilitated the suburban pattern of development and
encouraged urban sprawl. Urban spatial pattern of Dar es
Salaam shape the travel behavior where the residence of low
density sprawl areas travel long distance as in the case of
(Bunju, Tegeta, Boko, Mbweni, Mbezi beach and Kibamba)
compared to high density areas(Manzese, kigogo, Keko,
Kariakoo and Magomeni ,Mburahati and Ndugumbi).
In connection to land use change urban spatial pattern
growth has an impact to the land use /cover change due to
rapid urbanization degrading ecosystem services and land
covers in which urban land uses have resulted in
transformation of agricultural or natural land into urban land
(Figure 5). Low density urban sprawl is associated with
increasing in urban pressure on resources, degradation of
farm land, lack of services and high commuting needs.

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 International Journal of Urban Planning and Transportation, ISSN:2051-9281, Vol.31 Issue.1 1146

Figure 5:Urban growth pattern of Dar es Salaam extending along the four major roads making a four finger pattern
of the city structure where city is divided into two zones of residential and business industrial zone located in the
city CBD

4.3 Quantification of land cover with Urban
spatial Pattern
The Table.1 in next page provide information on the
quantity of change of land from rural to urban .There
were no much transformation of land from 1981 to
1991 this might be the population growth was not
high .however, the intensity of rural urban migration
was not high therefore the percentage of change
remained constant 8 %. From the year 2009, there have
been vastly city expansion and significant
transformations of rural land to urban have taken place.
and significant changes from 8% to 13% (compared to
other land covers )can be noticed from the two graphs.
The types of land consumed for new developments
have grown faster. In 2009 the newly built up area, 13
percent considered of urban expansion from farm land,
grassland and woodland. In Dar es Salaam urban
growth consisted largely of the extension of the city
boundaries into formal agricultural areas (Please note
the focus of this study is urban built up area not other
land uses).
4.4 Proximity

Dar es Salaam is good example of recent urban
expansion between 1989 and 2012 the population from
1.3 to 4.3 million a more than 50% increase, while its
urban cover expanded from 12,988 to 20,607 hectares,
about 47% increase. Urban landcover in Dar es Salaam
is growing at annual rate of 6%. Its expansion is
accelerated by population growth.
The Figure 6provide the tracing foot prints of the city
in graphs displaying amount of changes in land cover
Dar es Salaam is the city which most of its citizen use
public transport as their means of mobility.So it will
suit with concept of Transit Oriented Development
(TOD).Typically; TOD concentrates urban public
transport nodes. Usually inform of commercial and
residential nodes clustered around railway or road
stations. The residential areas should be within an 800-
metre or 10 minutes walk to the public transport station.
Most of the residential and commercial areas are
located areas with a distance of more than 1 Km Figure

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 International Journal of Urban Planning and Transportation, ISSN:2051-9281, Vol.31 Issue.1 1147

7 which is not a walk able distance from origin point to expensive and risk to develop building or
the transport nodes. In low density areas the situation is infrastructures on steep slope areas, and this is the
worse since it will take more than 2 km from origin reason why most of the developments are located in flat
point to transport node. areas or medium slopes areas.

Looking at the Slope in relation to transportation nodes,

residential and commercial areas can be a setback for
the developments of transport infrastructures or
commercial and residential areas since it will be more

Table 1:Quantification of land cover change to urban from 1981 -2009

Land cover 1981 1991 2009

Hectare % Hectare % Hectare %
Woodland 43372 27 14818 9 8282 5
Water 6002 4 1048 1 537 0
Urban Area 12988 8 11744 8 20607 13
Natural Forest 1525 1 2244 1 406 0
Mangrove Forest 840 1 3429 2 942 1
Cultivated Land 73717 46 75577 47 84819 54
Bush land 20798 13 16865 11 8791 6
Bare Soil 11 0 498 0 0 0
Grass Land 0 0 34463 21 32854 21

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 International Journal of Urban Planning and Transportation, ISSN:2051-9281, Vol.31 Issue.1 1148

Figure 6: Land transformation from Rural Agriculture to Urban in 1981-2009

Figure 7: residential commercial areas to the public transport station analyzed by ring buffer presented in kilometers
from the main road to the commercial and residential areas which is not convenient for TOD

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 International Journal of Urban Planning and Transportation, ISSN:2051-9281, Vol.31 Issue.1
5. DISCUSSIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
5.1 Discussion
Spatial pattern and land cover change in Dar es Salaam
seem to be catalyzed by transportation infrastructure
and population growth which has affected demand over
time. It’s obvious that the relation between urban
growths has been further investigated by related urban
growth and land cover growth. Related to land cover
and urban growth and expansion, from the period of
1981 to 1990, the rate of land cover change to urban use
remained dormant, but it rose rapidly from the period
1990 to 2009.Figure 7 provides analysis base of the
possibility of Transit Oriented Developments (TOD) in
the city of Dar es Salaam the Figure above shows that
most of the areas can’t be convenient to use public
transport due to the fact that they are located to the
areas with more than 1km from the main road.
Land cover changes in Dar es Salaam, is hardly
constrained by biophysical properties of the
landscape .This makes Dar es Salaam an excellent case
study dynamic land cover/use transport, slope and
proximity interaction. As land cover changes are
typically a result of a combination of drivers, the
absence of such landscape properties increased the role
of transport and slope in urban growth. For a similar
reasons presence of natural or agricultural land uses in
the surroundings of the city increase the complexity of
the study simultaneously with transport as a driver of
land cover change.
5.2 Conclusions
The city of Dar es Salaam has experienced a rapid
population growth, spatial pattern expansion, and land
cover change and transportation infrastructure
expansion almost in past three decades (1981-2009).
Different natural and cultural driving forces have
caused Dar es Salaam’s spatial pattern changes; Natural
drivers are slope and terrains while cultural are;
economic growth, population growth, transportation
infrastructures expansion, government policies and
master plans. Main type of urban growth which can be
literarily noted is informal settlements expansion and
sprawl development.
Spatial pattern of Dar es Salaam city is largely driven
by the efforts of low income households to secure land
that is affordable and in a reasonable location, often in
Peri-urban areas. This process is leading to new urban
forms as the countryside began to urbanize. In fact, the
bulk of rapid urban growth is mainly taking place in
Peri-Urban areas.
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1149
Most of the settlements have been clustered in areas
with moderate slope which is suitable for settlements
establishments as it is less cost effective. Compared to
the number of settlements established along steep slope
areas.
The complexity of land cover changes and their
interaction with slope, transport and proximity will
provide further insights to the capacity of analyzing
urban spatial pattern and land cover
changes .particularly monocentric urban structures, and
case studies that include a more diverse landscape,
including agricultural and natural land uses, will
provide useful cases.
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