FA2020 - ENE505 - L8.5 - The Transportation Sector - CAFE Standards & Alternative Vehicles

The Transportation Sector I
Kelly T. Sanders
October 15, 2020

US Corporate Average Fuel
Economy (CAFÉ) Standards
Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

10/15/2020 6
CAFÉ standards address a manufactured fleet
of cars produced in a given year
• Created by Energy Policy and Conservation Act of
1975 in response to 1973-74 Arab oil embargo
• Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) is the sales
weighted average fuel economy (in miles per gallon,
mpg), of a manufacturer’s fleet of passenger cars or
light trucks with a gross vehicle weight rating of 8,500
lbs or less, manufactured for sale in the US, for any
given model year
• Fuel economy is defined as the average mileage
traveled by an automobile per gallon of gasoline (or
equivalent amount of other fuel) consumed as
measured in accordance with the testing and
evaluation protocol set forth by the Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA). (source: NHTSA)
10/15/2020 7
CAFÉ Standards must be “feasible” and are
enforced through penalties
Congress requires that CAFÉ standards meet the following criteria:
1. Technological feasibility;
2. Economic practicability;
3. Effect of other standards on fuel economy; and
4. Need of the nation to conserve energy
• The penalty for failing to meet CAFE standards recently

increased from $5.00 to $5.50 per tenth of a mile per gallon for
each tenth under the target value times the total volume of those
vehicles manufactured for a given model year. (source: NHTSA)
• Credits can be earned if manufacturers exceed standards in a
particular year

10/15/2020 8
CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) is an
important policy tool, but based on approximations
and imperfect testing protocols
• National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
(NHTSA) establishes & enforces standards
• EPA is responsible for calculating the average fuel
economy for each manufacturer.
• CAFÉ Certification is done in 1 of 2 ways
– manufacturer provides its own fuel economy test data
(EPA audits a selection of vehicles to confirm
manufacturers reported data)
– EPA will obtain a vehicle and test it in its Office of
Transportation & Air Quality facility in Ann Arbor, MI (with
same protocol as emissions testing)

10/15/2020 9
Fuel economy is tested in controlled conditions
with a testing protocol specified by federal law
• Vehicle’s drive
wheels are placed
on a dynamometer
(i.e., rollers that can
simulate driving)
• A series of driving
routines are
simulated to mimic
highway and city
driving
• Exhaust is collected
and carbon is used
as a proxy for fuel
use
10/15/2020 10
Fuel economy is tested in controlled conditions
with a testing protocol specified by federal law
• https://www.youtube.co
m/watch?v=cnBiVd6iQ
qg

10/15/2020 11
10/15/2020 12
How did Volkswagon trick us?
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k65Z-
62hIr8
10/15/2020 13
After Staying Level for Decades (19802-2000s),
CAFE Standards Have Been Tightened
• Prior Standard (from mid-
1980s until 2007)
– Passenger cars: 27.5 mpg
– Light-duty trucks: 22.5 mpg
• EISA 2007: combined 35
mpg by 2020
• Obama administration used
executive order to tighten
the standards
– Combined 35.5 mpg by 2016
– Combined 54.5 mpg by 2025
• Trump wishes to roll back
10/15/2020 14
MPG is An Outdated Metric
In 2010, the US EPA introduced
“MPGe”, a measure of average distance traveled
per energy consumed
Defined:
1 gallon gasoline =1 mpge = 33.7 kWh of
electricity based on energy density

10/15/2020 15
MPGe explained
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MfUQ
WrEMMMA

10/15/2020 16
The Trump administration is trying to roll back
CAFÉ Standards
• 2018: The EPA, along with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration,
announced that they will abandon the long-term fuel economy standards for
passenger cars and light trucks developed by the Obama administration for
2022-2025 (wants to freeze to a 2021 level)
– This all still has to be settled with continued rulemaking
• The EPA is also revoking the Clean Air Act waiver that allows California to set its
own air quality standards (and thus its own fuel economy standards)
– would force CA and the 13 states (+DC) that use CA’s standards to conform to a federal
standard that is certain to be weaker.
Figure source: Rhodium group

10/15/2020 17
Fuel economy improvements in low MPG cars yield most improvement; Fuel
Economy Standards Serve As Proxies for CO2 Standard
Vehicle Type MY2016 MY2016

Fuel CO2
Economy Emissions
Target Target
[mpg] [g/mile]
Compact Car 41.4 214
Midsize Car 37.3 237
Fullsize Car 32.8 270
Small SUV 32.8 269
Midsize Crossover 30.6 289
Minivan 28.2 313
Large Pickup 24.7 358

Truck
Source: DoE Transportation Energy Data Book 2012

10/15/2020 18
There are other things we care about in addition
to fuel economy when it comes to reducing
environmental impacts….

10/15/2020 19
Safety Standards Affect Fuel Economy,
Performance, and Cost
Weight Impact
Regulation Year Requirement
(MY2001)
1967 Safety belts + 18.38 lbs (cars)
(cars, trucks) + 18.41 lbs. (trucks)
1973 (cars), Side Impact Protection + 62.12 lbs (cars)
1993 (trucks) + 23.76 lbs. (trucks)
1998 (cars), Frontal air bags + 26.76 lbs (cars)
1999 (trucks) + 26.40 lbs. (trucks)
1969 Head Restraints + 5.63 lbs (cars)
(cars, trucks) + 3.98 lbs. (trucks)
• Regulated since 1967
• NHTSA implements standards
• Regularly tightened
Source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 2004
10/15/2020 20
US Fuel Economy Standards Lag Behind the World’s Standards; we
have focused more on air pollutant reductions and safety
Relative nationwide total (not per-mile) values
3.0
2.5
VMT
INDEX (1970=1)
2.0 Oil & CO2
1.5
1.0 Fatalities
0.5
0.0
Air Pollution
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: Derived from DOT, DOE and EPA statistics. Each index is based
Source: Bloomberg on national totals, i.e., total tons of carbon or pollution and total
Sustainable Energy fatalities. The air pollution index represents a health damage-weighted
composite of light duty vehicle criteria-related emissions.
Factbook, Jan 2013

10/15/2020 21
Background: Regulated Pollutant Emissions
• Nitrogen Oxides (NOx): contributes to

smog formation
• Carbon Monoxide (CO): reduces vision,
manual dexterity, and brain function
• Particulate Matter (PM): aggravates
asthma and other respiratory conditions
and can lead to cancer

10/15/2020 22
Vehicles Have Improved Significantly Over the Last 30 Years (’76-’06)
Vehicles Improved Over the Last pre-EISA Decade (’96-’06) For Everything
EXCEPT Fuel Economy; now that is getting better too post EISA
1976-2006 1996-06
• Vehicle safety improved • Vehicle safety improved
53% 18%
• Regulated pollutant • Regulated pollutant
emissions improved 85%. emissions improved 32%
• GHG emissions improved • GHG emissions improved
40% 9%
• Vehicle performance • Vehicle performance
improved 37% improved 16%
• Fuel economy improved • Fuel economy worsened
32% by 1%
10/15/2020 23
Alternative Vehicles

10/15/2020 24
10/15/2020 25
Alternative Vehicles
are still a very small
share of car sales

10/15/2020 26
Hybrid Vehicles
“Hybrid” means many things

10/15/2020 27
Hybrid Formal Definition (from the EIA)
Standard hybrids: powered by an internal combustion
engine that runs on gasoline or diesel and an electric
motor that uses energy stored in a battery. Rather than
using a plug to charge the battery, they use regenerative
braking and the internal combustion engine to charge
and capture energy normally lost during braking.
Plug-in hybrids: use the electric battery as the primary

energy source by relying on battery power for propulsion
for a limited range (15-40 miles) before switching to
internal combustion propulsion (thus reducing gasoline
consumption). Generally, a plug-in hybrid could operate
without gasoline as long as the battery remains charged
but standard hybrids would require gasoline or another
primary fuel source to generate electricity for the battery.”
10/15/2020 28
HEVs and PHEVs Combine A Gasoline Engine
and An Electric Motor Conventional HEV (Parallel drivetrain)
• Definitions:
– Engines are air-breathing
– Motors are not air-breathing
• Normal car:
– Gasoline engine + fuel tank
Plug-in HEV (Parallel drivetrain)
• HEV: Hybrid Electric Vehicle
– Engine + Electric Motor
– No plug in; battery charged by
regenerative breaking
• PHEV: Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle
– Gasoline engine + fuel tank
– Electric motor + battery (Plugs in)
• BEV (or EV): Battery Electric Vehicle Pure EV (=“BEV”) (Single drivetrain)
– No gasoline engine; no fuel tank
– Electric motor + battery (Plugs in)

10/15/2020 29
Mild versus Full Hybrids
• Mild hybrid (no plug-in)
– Electric motor supplements
engine during acceleration.
Cannot run on electric alone.
– Allows the engine to turn off
when coasting, breaking, or
stopping & turn on quickly
– Example: Honda’s Integrated
Motor Assist®
• Full hybrid (no plug-in)
– Can run on electric motor
alone at slow speeds, engine
and motor share load under
varying conditions
– Example: Toyota Prius

10/15/2020 30
Hybrid, PHEVs, and BEVs have a very limited
market share

10/15/2020 31
Battery Electric Vehicle sales
US Vehicle Sales
• 17.3 million total (all cars, 2017)
• EV sales: 0.2 million (2017)
• EV sales: 0.325 million (2019)
World EV vehicle sales

• EV Sales: 1.2 million (2017)
• EV Sales: 2.2 million (2019)
EV= Electric Vehicle

10/15/2020 32
10/15/2020 33
California leads the country in EV sales

10/15/2020 34
Global sale of Battery Electric Vehicles

10/15/2020 35
10/15/2020 36
10/15/2020 37
Electric vehicles can be charges at night or
during the day depending on grid conditions
Vehicle Class Specific Energy
Requirements [kWh/mile]
Compact Sedan 0.26
Mid-size Sedan 0.30
Mid-size SUV 0.38
Full-size SUV 0.46
Electricity costs ~$0.10-0.20/kWh

10/15/2020 38
The Short Range of PHEVs Matches Well With
American Driving Patterns
About half the cars

in the US are driven
<25 miles/day
Source: EPRI

10/15/2020 39
The environmental performance of HHV vs
PHEVs vs BEVs depends on your grid
Source: Argonne National Labs
Michalek et al.
PNAS 2011
Value of life-cycle emissions externality damages and oil premium costs from vehicles
($2010). PHEVx , plug-in hybrid-electric vehicle with an x-km battery pack; BEVx , battery
Kelly T. Sanders,
electric10/15/2020
Ph.D.
vehicle with an x-km battery pack. 40
However, CO2 for Battery Electric Cars depends
on how clean your power mix is
Greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions
from BEVs vary
primarily with
marginal regional
grid mix, which
has three times
the GHG intensity
in the Upper
Midwest as on
the Pacific Coast.
Environ. Sci. Technol., 2015, 49 (6), pp 3974–3980

DOI: 10.1021/es505621s
10/15/2020 41
EVs have forced us to think differently
about MPG
In 2010, the US EPA
introduced
“MPGe”, a measure of average
distance traveled per energy
consumed
Defined:
1 gallon gasoline =1 mpge =
33.7 kWh of electricity based
on energy density
Image (right): 2020 top

mileage MPGe

10/15/2020 42
The future of EVs?
Most likely big!

10/15/2020 43
Announced Plans for Alternative Vehicles (Selected)
Austria Official target: No new ICE vehicles sold after 2020 4/2016
Britain Official target: No new ICE vehicles sold after 2035 2/2020
China Announced interest in ban, but as of 2020 is dropping considerations to 10/2020
have a firm deadline for banning the sales of new gasoline and diesel
vehicles,
Costa Rica 70% of buses and 25% of cars electric by 2035 2019
Denmark Official target: No new ICE vehicles sold after 2040 2020
Egypt Official target: No new ICE vehicles sold after 2040 11/2018
France Official target: No new ICE vehicles sold after 2040 7/2017
Germany No registration of ICE vehicles by 2030 (passed by Legislature); cities 10/2016
can ban diesel cars;12 Federal court ruling supports law
Iceland Official target: No ICE vehicles registered after 2030 10/2018
India Official target: No new ICE vehicles sold after 2030 (will likely hit 30% by 4/2017
2030)
Ireland Official target: No new ICE vehicles sold after 203017, incentive program 7/2017
in place for EV sales
Isreal Official target: No new ICE vehicle imports after 2030 2/2018
Japan Incentive program in place for EV sales 1990
Netherlands Official target: No new ICE vehicles sold after 2030, phase-out begins 2010
2025 Ph.D.
Kelly T. Sanders,
10/15/2020 44
Announce
d Plans for
Alternative
Vehicles
(Selected)
Norway Incentive program in place for EV sales; official target: only 10/2017
sell EVs by 2025
Portugal Official target and incentive in place for EV sales 2010
Scotland Official target: No new ICE vehicles sold after 2032 9/2017
Slovenia Official target: Ban the registration of ICE vehicles after 2030 10/2017
South Korea Official target: EVs account for 30% of auto sales by 2020 6/2016
Spain Official target: Ban sale of ICE vehicles after 2040 11/2018
Sri Lanka Replace all state-owned vehicles with electric or hybrid 11/2017
models by 2025, a move that will be extended to private
vehicles by 2040
Sweden Official Target: Phase out ICE vehicles after 2030 2019
Taiwan Official target: Phase out fossil fuel-powered motorcycles by 11/2017
2035 and fossil fuel-powered vehicles by 2040.32
Additionally, the replacement of all government vehicles and
public
Kelly T. Sanders,
10/15/2020
buses with electric versions by 2030
Ph.D.
45
What is the future of the EV?
Credit: Dr. Khurram Afridi

10/15/2020 46
Electrified vehicles have tradeoffs
Advantages Disadvantages
• Displaces petroleum
• Shifts from strategic liquids (i.e.,
• Can charge BEVs / PHEVs with renewable power
sources oil) to strategic minerals
• Potentially low-carbon – Batteries are usually imported
• Quiet (SE Asia)
• Excellent acceleration – Lithium is often from Bolivia
• Cheap operating costs
• Easier to manage emissions of pollutants and • Battery production is highly
GHGs at thousands of power plants rather than impactful (especially the mining
hundreds of millions of autos tails)
– pollution shifts in time (from day to night) and place
(from city to country) • Most EV charging is with fossil fuel
resources
By coupling transportation to the power grid, plug-in • Long Charging times
hybrids and electric vehicles introduce system
advantages: • Limited range
• Can back-up the grid and power the home • High up-front costs for the
• Load leveling with off-peak battery charging vehicle/battery
• Can help balance renewables
• Many technical questions exist for a good
business model for vehicle to grid integration.

10/15/2020 47
Vehicle to Grid?
https://www.youtube.com/w
atch?v=wHNFYMPFUv4

10/15/2020 48
Diurnal Electricity Demand Can Match PHEVs
For “Valley-Filling” With Off-Peak Charging
• Utilities have a HUGE

incentive to encourage
PHEVs or BEVs
• Utilities can buy-back
power at peak times
• Opportunity for demand
response programs?
Tricky policy
questions remain
49
Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D. Source: Electric Power Research Institute
10/15/2020
How will self-driving cars
impact energy in the transportation sector?
• More efficient driving patterns

• Less traffic, congestion, and idling
• More or less cars on the road?

10/15/2020 50
How will car sharing impact energy in the transportation
sector?

10/15/2020 51
Natural Gas for Transportation
118,000 CNG Vehicles were sold in 2011

10/15/2020 52
NGVs Are Much Cleaner at the Tailpipe
(compared to gasoline/diesel vehicles )
• 90%-97% reduction in carbon monoxide emissions
• 25% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions
• 35%-60% reduction in nitrogen oxide emissions
• Emits fewer toxic and carcinogenic pollutants
• Emits little or no particulate matter
• Eliminates evaporative emissions
• Potentially reduces non-methane hydrocarbon emissions 50%-75%
• Possible increase in methane hydrocarbon emissions
• CNG Passenger Vehicles Are More Expensive To Buy, Cheaper To
Operate
Source: USDOE

10/15/2020 53
Disadvantages of Natural
Gas Vehicles (NGVs)
• Infrastructure challenges
• Cost of conversion
• Tank space required
• Safety concerns
– Lack of standardized pumping equipment
• Better or worse for first responders?
– High pressure combustible gas

10/15/2020 54
Natural Gas vehicles work well but
have low market penetration
• Popular in Europe
• Compatible with heavy-duty trucks or LDVs
• Limited commercial and retail fueling
infrastructure
– Common for buses and other depot-fueled
vehicles
http://greentechnolog.com/images/d
cbusnatgas.jpg

10/15/2020 55
The market doesn’t look great for CNG
outside of fleet vehicles
160,000 Retail Gasoline/Diesel stations in U.S.

10/15/2020 56
Flex Fueled Vehicles

10/15/2020 57
Today’s Flex Fuel Cars Run on Two Fuels:
Gasoline or Ethanol
• Many US cars are “Flex Fueled”
– flex fuel cars run on gasoline or E85
• E85 = 85% ethanol, 15% gasoline
– all cars can run on E10
• E10 = 10% ethanol, 90% gasoline
– Not many ethanol fueling stations
• All Brazilian cars are “Flex Fueled”
– the fueling stations offer both ethanol and
gasoline
– consumers can buy whatever is cheapest

10/15/2020 58
Future Flex Fuel Cars Might Run on Up To Five
Fuels
• Gasoline
• Ethanol
• LPG
• CNG
• Electricity

10/15/2020 59
Hydrogen for Transportation
521 Hydrogen Vehicles were sold in 2011

10/15/2020 60
The Hydrogen Economy as an Antidote
• Proponents claim the Hydrogen Economy will
– reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, especially
oil
– reduce our greenhouse gas emissions
• The Hydrogen Economy calls for a few
ambitious shifts in our energy use
– Use hydrogen for a significant portion of our
stationary power (e.g. electricity)
– Use hydrogen as the primary fuel for
transportation
10/15/2020 61
The Key Technological Component of the
Hydrogen Economy is the Fuel Cell
• Electrochemical reactions from hydrogen and oxygen (from air) into
electricity
– Fuel Cell: c→e→m (50-75% overall)
• electrochemical efficiency: 85-95%
• small electric motor efficiency: 60-75%
– Internal Combustion Engine: c→t→m
• Gasoline: 15-25%
• Diesel: 25-35%
• Low-temperature reactions means no emissions of pollutants such
as NOx
• Lack of hydrocarbons means no emissions of CO2
• No mechanical parts, so better reliability

10/15/2020 62
Hydrogen Production is Energy Intensive
• Hydrogen must be manufactured
• Electrolysis: convert water into oxygen and
hydrogen
• 2H2O + e- → O2 + 2H2
– One of most energy intensive ways to create H2
– Can use renewable source of electricity such as
wind
• Reformation of hydrocarbons: convert methane
into hydrogen
– Steam Methane Reforming (SMR)
• CH4 + H2O → CO + 3H2
• 90% efficient, dominant way to produce hydrogen
• Electricity and reformation both use fossil fuels!!
Source: Bossel, Ulf. Energy and Hydrogen Economy. 2003.

10/15/2020 63
Pipeline Delivery of Hydrogen if Inefficient
Source: Bossel, Ulf. Energy and the Hydrogen Economy. 2003

10/15/2020 64
Hydrogen Big Picture
• Hydrogen will not make sense unless it’s
produced by renewable energy and/or new
direct biological or photological techniques
• Drawbacks: lack of infrastructure, energy
losses, more competitive storage
technologies
• Advantages: clean at its end use,
compatible with fuel cells (which have
many advantages)
10/15/2020 65
The Trends for Alternative
Vehicles

10/15/2020 66
Total Alternative Vehicles represented ~8% of US
market share in 2019

10/15/2020 67
…But ultimately, BEVs will probably win
amongst the other types

10/15/2020 68
Fleet vehicles are prime candidates for
Alternative Fuels outside of electricity

10/15/2020 69
10/15/2020 70
Assistant Professor
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
ktsanders@usc.edu

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The Transportation Sector I

October 15, 2020

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

• The penalty for failing to meet CAFE standards recently

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Figure source: Rhodium group

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Vehicle Type MY2016 MY2016

Compact Car 41.4 214

Midsize Car 37.3 237

Fullsize Car 32.8 270

Small SUV 32.8 269

Midsize Crossover 30.6 289

Minivan 28.2 313

Large Pickup 24.7 358

Source: DoE Transportation Energy Data Book 2012

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

• Nitrogen Oxides (NOx): contributes to

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Plug-in hybrids: use the electric battery as the primary

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

World EV vehicle sales

EV= Electric Vehicle

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Mid-size Sedan 0.30

Mid-size SUV 0.38

Full-size SUV 0.46

Electricity costs ~$0.10-0.20/kWh

About half the cars

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Source: Argonne National Labs

Environ. Sci. Technol., 2015, 49 (6), pp 3974–3980

Image (right): 2020 top

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Credit: Dr. Khurram Afridi

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

• Utilities have a HUGE

• More efficient driving patterns

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

160,000 Retail Gasoline/Diesel stations in U.S.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.