Lecture 7: The Power Grid

Kelly T. Sanders
September 28, 2020
 Power Sector Trends

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

9/28/2020
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The fuel mix for the power sector is diverse and
changing relatively quickly
• Coal-fired power generation is
shrinking
• Natural gas generation is
growing
• Nuclear & hydro are stable
• Wind and Solar PV are
growing fast

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 Only 13.3 of the 38 Quads (35%) used to generate electricity
was actually delivered to end-use sectors in 2019
• Primary Energy: natural gas, coal, uranium, wind, solar • 61% conversion
radiation, biomass losses
• 2% to internal power
• Secondary Energy: The amount of primary energy that
plant uses
the electric sector consumed in primary energy (~38
• 2% T&D losses
Quad) is MUCH different than the amount of electricity
• 35% made it to end-
that is generated (~4100 billion kWh) which is greater
use
than the amount of electricity that is consumed (~3900
billion kWh)

(1 Quad = 1 quadrillion
BTU = 11015 BTU)

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The Power Sector represents ~37% of US primary
energy consumption

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Most electricity is distributed to residential,
commercial and industrial sectors

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2/3 of the world’s electricity is from fossil fuels
Source of World World US US
Electricity 2017 2019 2017 2019
Electricity Generation from
Fossil Fuels:
Coal 38% 38% 30% 24% • World 2017: 66%
• World 2019: 64%
Natural 23% 23% 32% 38%
Gas
• US 2017: 63%
Oil 5% 3% <1% <1%
• US 2019: 62%
Nuclear 10% 10% 20% 20%

Hydropow 16% 16% 8% 7%

er

Renewabl 8% 10% 8% 11%

es

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 Power Plants
What are the fuels used for electricity generation? What
are the technologies? What role does each type of
power plant play in the grid?

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Major power plants in the U.S.
• Natural gas turbines
– 10 kW to 1200 MW (typical 100-500 MW)
• Coal boilers
– typical size is 250-500 MW
– 1-4 boilers per power plant
– hundreds of power plants in the United States
• Nuclear reactors
– 450-1350 MW each
– 1-3 reactors per power plant
– largest reactors are at the South Texas Project
(2.6 GW) and Palo Verde (3.875 GW) in Arizona
• Hydroelectric Dams
– Largest in the U.S.: 6.8 GW (Grand Coulee Dam)
– Largest in the World: 22.5 GW (Three Gorges Source: STP
Dam, China)

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Most electricity generated around the world is made in
thermoelectric power plants that use heat, generated by
primary energy, to boil water to make high pressure steam
• Thermoelectric vs non-thermoelectric
– Thermoelectric or thermal power generation: heat is used to create
a high pressured steam or gas that spins a turbine
– Examples of Non-thermoelectric Prime Movers: Solar Photovoltaics,
Fuel Cells, Compressed Air Energy Storage
• A prime mover is a machine/ technology that converts fuel to
useful work
– Turbines = the most common type of prime movers, that convert fuel
(e.g. high-pressure gas, steam, wind, water, etc.) to mechanical
energy to a rotating shaft, which connects to a generator that makes
electricity.
– Non-thermoelectric power generators, such as wind turbines
and hydropower also use turbines

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 Combined Cycle (CC) Electricity
(Combustion Part) CC Generation
(Steam Part)
by Prime
Hydraulic
Mover* in
Turbines 2012
Wind (Onshore)
Combustion (NG)

Steam turbines *A Prime Mover is

(Includes fossil fuels, nuclear, geothermal, a technology that
steam solar with steam cycle) converts an energy
source/ fuel into
useful work
Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.
9/28/2020 Source: EIA.gov 923 Form ENE505 11
US Electricity Generation by Prime Mover (as a %) US Generation in 2012 US Generation in 2019

Steam Turbine (Thermoelectric) 62% 48%

Combined-Cycle (Combustion Turbine + Steam Turbine Part) 16% + 8% = 24% 21% + 10% = 31%
Hydraulic Turbine 7% 7%

Wind Turbine, Onshore 4% 7%

Combustion (Gas) Turbine (including jet engine design) 3% 3%

Combined-Cycle Single-Shaft Combustion

1% 1%
(turbine and steam turbine share one generator)

Internal Combustion (diesel, piston) Engine 0.2% 0.4%

Solar Photovoltaic 0.1% 2%

Turbines Used in a Binary Cycle

0.1% 0.1%
(e.g. geothermal applications)

Other 0.01% 0.01%

Fuel Cell 0.004% 0.004%

Energy Storage, Concentrated Solar Power 0.001% 0.02%

Compressed Air Energy Storage 0.000% 0.000%

Pumped Storage -0.1% -0.1%

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There are several typical thermoelectric power
cycles that use steam and/or combustion turbine
prime movers
• Steam turbine driven (Rankine Cycle)
– Uses boilers to create steam from heat (from coal, gas, petroleum,
wood, nuclear reactors)
– [The big semi trucks of the power grid. Slow!]
• Combustion Gas turbines (Brayton Cycle)
– Burns high-pressure natural gas directly in turbine
– [The sports car of the power grid. Quick but inefficient!]
• Combined Cycle (Combines Rankine + Brayton)
– Burns natural gas directly in gas turbine [Brayton]
– Uses waste heat in exhaust to create steam [Rankine]
– [The trusty economical cars of the grid; pretty efficient, so-so
acceleration and deceleration]
• Combined Heat and Power (CHP)
• Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC)
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A steam cycle plant uses steam (thermal energy) to
move a turbine (mechanical energy) that drives an
electrical generator

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The Rankine or Simple Steam cycle is used for
~2/3 of our electricity generation
2
Images: "Rankine cycle" by Andrew
Ainsworth & mpoweruk.com
3

1
4

1
3
4
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Gas Turbine Systems Have a Typical Efficiency
of 30-40%

Source: “Renewable and Efficient Electric Power Systems,” Masters

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Combined Cycle Systems Have a 40-60%
Source: “Renewable and Efficient Electric Power Systems,” Masters
Efficiency

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Natural Gas can be used in most of these cycles

• NGCT = Natural Gas Combustion Turbine

• NGST = Natural Gas Steam Turbine
– Natural Gas Boiler
• NGCC = Natural Gas Combined Cycle
• NGCHP = Natural Gas Combined Heat
and Power

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 Integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) turns
solid fuels (e.g. Coal) into gas to run a combined
cycle

DOE.gov
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 Real power plants are more complicated
Source: “Renewable and Efficient Electric Power Systems”

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Heat Rates Are A Convenient Way to Assess
A Power plant’s Efficiency
Outgoing Electrical Energy [BTU] = Incoming Fuel Energy [BTU] ´ h

IMPORTANT: Heat
Efficiency : h < 1
Rate is NOT a units
conversion, it is a
Outgoing Electrical Energy [BTU] < Incoming Fuel Energy [BTU]
combination of an
efficiency AND a
Incoming Fuel Energy [BTU] 3412 [BTU]
Heat Rate = units conversion
´
Outgoing Electrical Energy [BTU] 1 [kWh]

Incoming Fuel Energy [BTU]

Heat Rate =
Outgoing Electrical Energy [kWh]

Incoming Outgoing
Fuel [BTU]
Power Plant Electricity
[kWh]

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Heat Rates Are A Convenient Way to Assess
A Power Plant’s Efficiency
Year Fossil Fuel [BTU/kWh] Nuclear [BTU/kWh] Geothermal [BTU/kWh]

1949 15,033 --- ---

1980 10,388 10,908 21,639

1990 10,402 10,582 21,098

2000 10,201 10,429 21,017

2007 9,919 10,434 21,017

Source: EIA AER 2008, Table A6

Outgoing
Incoming
Fuel [BTU]
Power Plant Electricity
[kWh]

Heat Rates Decrease with time = efficiency improves with time

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.
9/28/2020 LOW heat rates are BETTER than HIGH heat rates
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Heat rate indicates how efficiently a power plant
converts primary energy into finished electricity
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑑
Heat Rate=
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑒𝑑

8,330,000 𝐵𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐵𝑇𝑈 𝐵𝑇𝑈

Heat Rate NG = = 7,424
1122 𝐵𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐾𝑊ℎ 𝐾𝑊ℎ

The average natural gas fired power plant uses

much less primary energy to generate a unit of
electricity than a nuclear power plant

8,750,000 𝐵𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐵𝑇𝑈 𝐵𝑇𝑈

Heat Rate Nuclear = = 10,978
797 𝐵𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐾𝑊ℎ 𝐾𝑊ℎ

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The heat rates of the natural gas fleet has gone down
substantially over time because of combined cycle plants
Note: LOW heat rates are BETTER than HIGH
heat rates

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Electricity Grid: How do we pick (“dispatch”)
the power plants that run to meet our time-
changing electricity demand?

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Each power plant has its own role in the grid’s
generation mix for meeting time changing demand
Peaking power plants: Really fast to
accelerate up and down; can respond to
quick changes in demand (the sports
cars)

Load-following power plants: Can

respond to predictable changes in
demand (the trusty sedans)

Baseload power plants: Really slow to

turn up and down, but are huge
generators of electricity (the semi trucks)

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Our electricity demand changes according to season, diurnal cycle, day
of the week, etc.: most changes are very predictable, but small
adjustments need to be made in real-time to make sure power demand
= power supply
FUEL
CL = Coal
NU=Nuclear
NG= Natural Gas
OCGT= open-cycle gas turbine
NGIC= internal combustion gas turbine
COOLING SYSTEM
OT = Once-through cooled
RC = recirculating cooled Peaking
NA = no cooling system power
PRIME MOVER plants
ST = steam turbine
CC = combined cycle
CT= combustion turbine
HY= hydro turbine

Load-following

Baseload power plants

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 Electricity Generating Units (EGUs) are
dispatched to meet time-varying demand based
on their characteristics
• “Baseload” EGUs: High capacity factor sources that are hard to
turn on and off; cheap to operate
– Limited by how fast they can “ramp up” [turn up] and “ramp down”
Power Plants
Dispatchable

– Examples: Huge coal & nuclear power plants [The huge semi truck]
• “Load-following” EGUs
– Characteristics in-between Baseload and Peaking, medium capacity
factor
– Can be operated to react to predictable changes in demand (i.e.,
shifting demand across day and night, season to season)
– Examples: Natural Gas Combined Cycles or Hydroelectric
• “Peaking” EGUs: Small sources that are easy to turn on/off
Non-Dispatchable

– “fast ramping”; can be turned up and down VERY fast to meet quick
changes in demand; VERY low capacity factors
– hydroelectric, natural gas combustion turbines
• Other sources (wind, solar) must be squeezed in with the rest
– Intermittent sources are currently limited to ~10-20% of total system
capacity because we can’t control when the sun shines/ wind blows
– Storage would really help with RE integration
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Capacity Factors indicate how often and/or how
intensely a power plant runs
• The Capacity Factor of a power plant is the ratio of its actual power
output over a period of time, to its maximum potential output if it
were operating at its full nameplate capacity indefinitely.

𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑝𝑢𝑡

• 𝐶𝐹 =
𝑀𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑁𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 ∗ 8760 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠/𝑦𝑟

• Reflects
– operational characteristics: are generators baseload (high), load-following
(medium), peaking (VERY low)
– Fuel availability in the case of intermittent renewable energy generators
like wind and solar panels

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 Average Capacity Factors By CF is a function:
Fuel (EIA AER)
1. Reliability
2. Use
3. Fuel
availability

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However, capacity factors of all technologies
can vary seasonally due to electric heating and
cooling trends (e.g., here in Utah)

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 Power Plants are dispatched in the order of
least marginal cost
•Power plants dispatched so that supply = demand
• Marginal Cost = VOM + HR 𝗑 FC
– VOM = Variable Operations and Maintenance Costs ($/MWh)
– HR = Heat Rate (MMBTU/ MWh)
– FC = Fuel Cost ($/MMBTU)

[Sanders 2012]

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9/28/2020 Capacity (MW)
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Downward shifts in natural gas prices have
decarbonized and dewatered the grid

[Sanders, Blackhurst, and Webber 2013]

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 The Electric Grid

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 Our current system was designed for a one-way
flow of electricity and information

Traditional Centralized Power System

1. Information & electricity move in one direction via centralized control
2. Very little storage available to buffer supply-demand balancing
3. Power plants are very responsive, while end-users are very passive grid participants
4. Power supply is relatively dirty and vulnerable to water-related disruptions

Consumer demands electricity

(apathetic to how much or when) Signal sent to power plants to adjust generation
one-way Information flow

one-way power flow

End user receives

Power plants turn up or down
electricity
to meet instantaneous
demand
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Today, our grid is aging and vulnerable to
disruptions. It needs innovation….fast
Characteristics of our current grid:
• A grid operator has to balance instantaneous electricity supply to meet instantaneous electricity
demand at every second of the day
• Electrons typically move in a one-way direction from power plants through transmission lines (high
voltage), than distribution lines (lower voltage), to the electricity customer
• Electrons in the power lines are from a large set of power plants. There is no way to tell the individual
power plants that are providing your electricity in most electricity markets.
• Up until recently, our power plants were easy to control (i.e., turn up, turn down or turn off), which made
this system relatively easy to manage for grid operators.
• Outages can occur when: electricity supply ≠ electricity demand
• Information such as outages are not precise. If a line is broken, typically a customer has to report it.
Challenges for the future grid:
• Some sources are not easy to control (e.g.
wind & solar panels), making balancing
supply and demand difficult (without energy
storage)
• Storage is still expensive
• We would like electrons to move in two
directions (from grid to home, from home to
grid) when a customer can generate their
own energy

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The US has several reliability councils to
maintain grid operation, and many balancing
There are 3 grids: East, West, Texas
authorities to balance regional supply and
demand • Very little electricity flows across (although
some does)

There are 6 regional entities responsible

for maintaining reliability

There are many balancing authorities

that balance supply and demand

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9/28/2020 Source: DoE
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Electricity Grid: How do we move the electrons
from power plants to where electricity is
demanded (e.g., our homes, businesses, and
industries)?

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Battle of AC vs
DC:

Electricity
“Transmission” is more
efficient w/ high
voltages [DC power]

“Distribution” is easier
with low voltage AC

~5-10% of electricity
that enters lines is lost
along the way

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9/28/2020
Image source: Boyle ENE505 39
AC vs. DC Grids Revisited
• The great grid battle of the 1880s
– Westinghouse backed AC
– Edison backed DC
• AC Grids are more efficient over short distances
– AC voltages are easy to step-up and step-down w/ transformers
– AC voltages are more likely to arc lines to ground
• induces losses (and risks)
• need high-elevation lines: the higher the voltage, the higher the lines
• need to keep the three lines separated
• DC lines: Over long distances high-voltage DC lines have
lower losses than AC
– DC voltages are more difficult to step up and down
– High voltage (~500kV) DC lines have lower losses over 1500+ km
– Can use a single pole because of lack of arcing concerns
• Requires a narrower right-of-way
– Solar panels and batteries typically use DC and then require a converter to get to AC
(should we change this as we use more solar/batteries?)

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Transmission lines and distribution lines are both
used to carry electricity from one place to the other
• 10,000’s of power generators (note one
power plant might have several
generators)
• High Voltage Transmission:
– ~160,000 miles
– Rural
– 69 kV to 765 kV
– Lines in pairs (DC) or three phase current
(AC)
– Less than 1% of transmission is underground
• Low Voltage Distribution:
– ~5.5 million miles
– Urban
– < 69 kV
• The grid structure helps maintain the
reliability of the power system by providing
multiple routes for power to flow and by
allowing generators to supply electricity to
many load centers.
– This redundancy helps prevent transmission
line or power plant failures from causing
interruptions in service.
Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.
9/28/2020
blackhillscorp.com
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Traditional transmission infrastructure
challenges are expensive
• Siting difficulties
• Land-owner pushback (NIMBY)
• Regulation hurdles (especially cross-state)
• Costly delays:
– Siting & permitting: 5 to 7 years
– Construction: 2 to 3 years
– Can be as bad as 16 years from start to finish
• Blackouts:
– Weather (60% of outages in 2010)
– Blackouts cost Americans $150 billion each year
– Hurricane Sandy and Nor’easter costs for response and restoration: $350
to $450 million
• Transmission Construction Is Expensive
– Rule of thumb: ~$1,000,000/mile
– Tree trimming (+$10,000 to $20,000 per mile)
Source: Tennessee Valley Authority 2012; NERC 2011, DOE 2010

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Underground transmission might reduce some
problems with overhead transmission… but it has other
problems
• UG is more expensive to
Underground Overhead
build, cheaper to operate
Capital Costs $1.5-10M/mile $0.2-2M/mile • UG fails less often, but
takes longer to recover
Operational Generally lower than Generally higher
Costs OH than UG • How do we find the
broken part of the UG
Vulnerability Flooding Wind line?
Failure Rate Generally lower than Generally higher
• OH is vulnerable to wind,
OH than UG UG is vulnerable to
flooding
Resiliency Generally lower than Generally higher
OH than UG

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The Grid is a Massive Engineering
Achievement…

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…but, a squirrel can bring the grid down

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“The grid is the largest supply chain with zero
inventory” - Don Sadoway, MIT

August 14, 2003 (Pre-Blackout)

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“The grid is the largest supply chain with zero
inventory” - Don Sadoway, MIT

August 15, 2003 (Post-Blackout)

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 Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
ktsanders@usc.edu