FA2020 - ENE505 - L1 - Climate Change

Global Climate Change
Kelly T. Sanders
August 25, 2020

There is scientific consensus that humans are
influencing the climate
• CO2 traps heat
• CO2 levels have increased steadily since the
second industrial revolution (~1850)
• The source of new CO2 is primarily fossil fuel
combustion
– plus some other gases (methane, N2O,...)
– also agriculture, land clearing, ….
• Global temperatures & sea levels have risen
• Many people will suffer if temperatures and sea
levels continue to rise
Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.
8/25/2020 2
What make’s Earth’s climate
livable (and why is it warming) ?
1. The Sun emits shortwave solar radiation to earth.

2. The earth gives off energy to space as invisible infrared
radiation.
3. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere absorb and re-emit
infrared radiation received from the Earth’s surface,
retaining the perfect balance of energy to keep Earth at
the right temperature

8/25/2020 3
Sun
8 from surface escapes
through atmosphere
So our total energy balance:

Atmosphere
31 units reflected (shortwave solar)
8 units pass through atmosphere to space
61 units emitted as longwave radiation Earth
from the atmosphere (21 + 3 + 4+ 19 +14) 14 units of
45 transferred longwave radiation
FROM surface absorbed
via GHGs
4 from surface
via convection
As GHGs accumulate, they absorb and
19 from surface as latent
re-emit more thermal longwave radiation,
heat lost to evaporation
so more heat is trapped and less is
passed through the atmosphere.
Energy emitted from surface

8/25/2020
45 = 4 + 19 + 8 + 14 4
Planetary atmospheric warming depends on how
infrared radiation interacts with greenhouse gases
For a system in balance:

Incoming energy = outgoing energy B: 102 = 79 + 23 A C
For Earth’s system:
341.3 W·m-2 - 340.4 W·m-2 = 0.9 W·m-2
(some energy is stored)
Incoming Energy from sun: 341.3 W·m-2 (A)

Outgoing Energy to atmosphere: 340.4
W·m-2 (B + C)
• 101.9 (shortwave reflected portion of
solar radiation)
• 238.5 (longwave outgoing infrared
radiation flux emitted from atmosphere,
clouds and Earth surface)

8/25/2020 5
Planetary atmospheric warming depends on how
infrared radiation interacts with greenhouse gases
The sun emits energy as shortwave solar
radiation to Earth:
• A: incoming solar energy, = 341.3 W·m-2
• ~ 30% of A is reflected radiation = 101.9 W·m-2
(see B)
• ~ 70% of A is absorbed radiation = 238.5 W·m-
2
– C: ~78 W·m-2 in the near ultraviolet,

visible, and short wavelength infrared is B: 102 = 79 + 23 A
absorbed by atmosphere (~30%)
– D: ~161 ~W·m-2 absorbed by the
surface (70%)
341.3 – (101.9 + 238.5) = 0.9 net in
Earth must emit energy it receives from
the sun
• the energy absorbed by a planet should be
equal the energy it emits to remain at a
C
constant temp
• Energy Emitted: 493 W·m-2 = 396 (radiated
from surface) + 17 (thermals) + 80
(evapotranspiration)
• Energy Absorbed: 494 W·m-2 =161 ( radiation
from sun) + 333 (back radiated from D
atmosphere)
Slight net absorption due to greenhouse

gas accumulation… as GHG accumulate,
more energy is back radiated, and more
energy is absorbed by surface

8/25/2020 6
What is a greenhouse gas?
Greenhouse gas, any gas that has the property of absorbing
infrared radiation (net heat energy) emitted from Earth’s surface
and reradiating it back to Earth’s surface.
• Greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere: water vapor,
carbon dioxide (CO2 ),
methane, and nitrous
oxide.
• Without these gases,
Earth would be
uninhabitable.
• Over time we are
accumulating CO2 in the
atmosphere due to
human activities, which is
altering Earth’s average
temp
8/25/2020 7
The greenhouse effect has enabled Earth’s
atmosphere to be hospitable to humans
In our solar system, the sun is the source of
radiant energy that warms the surface of
each planet and its atmosphere (if there is
any)
• Mercury is close to the sun, but has no
atmosphere, so it has huge swings in extreme
temperature since heat can’t be trapped
• Venus’s surface temperature is high enough to
melt lead; it has a lot of atmosphere to trap
greenhouse gases + high concentrations of Tp = temperature predicted without atmosphere
based on a simple black body model of sun
greenhouse gases
• Mars’s surface temperature is so low that its Tobs = experimentally observed average
relatively small amount of water is frozen; its temperatures at the surface of the planets derived
atmosphere is very thin/ weak, so it doesn’t from astronomical and planetary probe data and
hold heat well, despite high CO2 direct thermometric data for Earth
concentrations
• Earth: the perfect balance of GHGs and Note: Mercury and Mars have good agreement in
atmosphere to support life! But when we Tobs and Tp because of little atmosphere. Venus
and Earth are very different due to GHG effect!
tweak this balance, climate can change

8/25/2020 8
What if Earth had no greenhouse gases?
Main greenhouse gases in CO2
atmosphere H2O
Temperature without -5 °C
greenhouse gases (23 °F)
Too cold!
Actual Average Temperature 15 °C
(59 °F)
Just right!
Temperature change because of 20 °C

Composition of Earth’s Atmosphere
greenhouse gases (36 °F)
Tiny by percentage but

fierce in effect!

8/25/2020
9 9
What is the role of greenhouse gases to climate
change, and how do we measure them?

8/25/2020 10
Climate Change (via the relationship between GHGs and
temperature) is not a new concept…
• A Swedish chemist Svante
Arrhenius first developed the
Greenhouse Effect theory
– trying to explain the ice ages
– suggested that changes in the
levels of CO2 in the atmosphere
could substantially alter the
surface temperature by the
greenhouse effect
– published in 1896
• This is not ground-breaking or
difficult science. Unfortunately,
it has been politicized in the
US.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Arrhenius

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Temperature and CO2 are strongly correlated

8/25/2020 12
Changes in Carbon Dioxide
are the primary forcing function
of global climate change
• Our anthropogenic emissions of
greenhouse gases (GHGs) have raised
atmospheric concentrations above
nominal background levels (that were
very hospitable to humans and our
current balance of ecosystems)
– Preindustrial CO2 concentration: 280 ppm
– 2020 CO2 concentration : ~413 ppm
• These gases have higher radiative
forcing than the baseline atmosphere
– Traps more heat in the atmosphere
– Raises global average temperature
• Term has switched from “Global
Warming” to “Global Climate Change”

8/25/2020 13
Carbon dioxide levels today are higher than at
any point in at least the past 800,000 years.
The annual rate of increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide over the past 60 years is
about 100 times faster than previous natural increases, such as those that occurred
at the end of the last ice age 11,000-17,000 years ago

8/25/2020 14
We are the source of new CO2 emissions!
The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (raspberry line) has increased along with human emissions (blue line) since the start of
the Industrial Revolution in 1750. Emissions rose slowly to about 5 billion tons a year in the mid-20th century before skyrocketing to more
than 35 billion tons per year by the end of the century. NOAA Climate.gov graph, adapted from original by Dr. Howard Diamond (NOAA
ARL). Atmospheric CO2 data from NOAA and ETHZ. CO2 emissions data from Our World in Data and the Global Carbon Project.

8/25/2020 15
Emissions have various climate forcing effects; some produce warming
(GHGs); some produce cooling; some we don’t understand well… but GHGs
we understand very well
• Solar input and land use have
warming and cooling effects
• Greenhouse gases have warming

effects and we have a high level of
scientific understanding of their
effects
• Aerosols and clouds can produce

cooling effects, but scientific
understanding is lower
Figure (from IPCC AR5):
Radiative forcing estimates in 2011 relative to

1750 and aggregated uncertainties for the main
drivers of climate change. Values are global
average radiative forcing, partitioned according
to the emitted compounds or processes that
result in a combination of drivers. The best
estimates of the net radiative forcing are shown
as black diamonds with corresponding
uncertainty intervals; the numerical values are
provided on the right of the figure, together with
the confidence level in the net forcing (VH – very
high, H – high, M – medium, L – low, VL – very
low).
cooling warming

8/25/2020 16
Carbon Dioxide can be reported according to the weight
of the CO2 molecule or simply the weight of the Carbon
atoms in the molecule
• CO2 Emissions: self-explanatory

• Carbon emissions:
– C has a mass of 12
– CO2 has a mass of 44 (C=12; O=16,
O=16)
– Divide CO2 (or CO2-equivalent
emissions) by 44/12 (or 3.67) to get C-
equivalent emissions
• But how do we compare greenhouse

gases to understand the net impacts
of all of them together?

8/25/2020 17
Since GHG emissions have different impacts on
warming, we need a way to compare them …enter
“CO2- equivalent” CO -equivalent emissions (CO e): Normalizes all
2
greenhouse gases for global warming potential
2
(GWP):
“The GWP of a greenhouse gas is defined as the ratio of
the time-integrated radiative forcing from the
instantaneous release of 1 kilogram (kg) of a trace
substance relative to that of 1 kg of a reference gas. The
reference gas used is CO2.”, from EPA Inventory Of U.S.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions And Sinks: 1990 – 2011
Need to specify the time period warming potential is

in reference to (typically 100 yrs). Note that CO2, by
definition, has a GWP of 1 regardless of the time
period used.
Examples (source: EPA.gov):

– 1 kg of methane (CH4) emissions = 28-36 kg of
CO2-equivalent emissions over 100 years.
CO2 always weighted as 1 – Nitrous Oxide (N2O) has a GWP 265–298 times
that of CO2 for a 100-year timescale
– Note that values might vary slightly from source to
source based on updated scientific estimates (e.g.,
whether source reflects IPCC report 2007 vs IPCC
2014)

8/25/2020 18
• Different GHGs can have different effects on the Earth's warming, based on 1) their ability to absorb energy (their "radiative efficiency"), and 2) how long they stay in the
atmosphere (also known as their "lifetime“ or residence time).
• The GTP is the ratio of change in global mean surface temperature at a chosen point in time from the substance of interest relative to that from CO2. Measured in unit
temp per mass.
19
• Even Kelly
though CH
T.4 and N2O have much
Sanders, Ph.D.higher radiative forcing per unit mass than CO 2, much greater amount of the latter is emitted
• Source: IPCC, AR5, Ch 8. See page 72 of this pdf: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter08_FINAL.pdf
8/25/2020
CO2 has a lower CO2e per kg, but we emit a LOT of it, so our
emissions of CO2 today will continue to impact people in the
future
Table:
IPCC AR5

8/25/2020 20
Has our climate always been perfect for
supporting humans? Have large climate
changes happened before?

8/25/2020 21
This isn’t the first climate change,
but it’s the first driven by humans
and it is happening MUCH faster
than past climate changes
• Ice core data reveal a tight

connection between temperature
and CO2 levels
– Ice- ages, 180 ppm: too cold for
humans
– Pre-industrial natural level of
atmospheric CO₂ during warm
interglacials was around 280 ppm:
Good for humans
– August 12, 2020, 412.89 ppm:
Posing some difficulties for
humans
• Past shifts in CO2 were natural,
but the current rise is driven by
taking stores of Carbon from the
ground (i.e., fossil fuels) and
releasing them to the
atmosphere as GHGs

8/25/2020 22
The earth has experienced 5 mass extinctions in the past,
primarily from events that caused climate change. Scientists
think we are in the 6th
Millions of Percent of Cause
years ago Species
Eliminated
445 86% Climate Change driven by GHGs. Ice sheets

advanced and changed ocean currents, then
there was a sudden melt. Changes in
atmospheric and oceanic chemistry relating to
the rise of the Appalachian mountains
359-380 75% over Climate change, possibly linked to the

diversification of land plants/ tetonic plates,
20M years affecting CO2. Decrease in oxygen levels in the
deep ocean
252 96% over Climate Change driven by GHGs from Siberian

Volcanos from shifting tetonic plates. Oceans
~50,000 heated up by 18F and robbed of oxygen killed off
of yrs marine species (warm water holds less oxygen
and animals need more in warm water). Read
more:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/07/science
/climate-change-mass-extinction.html
201 80% Climate Change driven by GHGs from Volcanos in

the present-day Atlantic Ocean.
66 75% Astroid (end of dinosaurs event), but hotly

debated on whether this was the primary cause,
or if volcano-induced climate change also
affected. Changes in atmospheric and oceanic
chemistry

8/25/2020 23
Why are we so certain that this climate change
is due to humans?

8/25/2020 24
Major Components of the Global Carbon Cycle
Top: The global carbon cycle for the 1990s, showing the main Takes Carbon Dioxide out of the atmosphere:
annual fluxes in GtC yr–1: pre-industrial ‘natural’ fluxes in black and • Photosynthesis: Plants uptake CO2, water and
‘anthropogenic’ fluxes in red (modified from Sarmiento and Gruber,
2006, with changes in pool sizes from Sabine et al., 2004a).
sunlight to create energy, and release oxygen as a
by-product; CO2 can stay in biomass itself or be
transferred to the soil
• The Ocean: aquatic plants uptake CO2 through
photosynthesis; marine organisms can uptake CO2 to
make Calcium Carbonate that can later become
limestone
• Acid Rain*: CO2 plus rain creates acid rain that can
break down rocks into calcium that can travel to the
ocean and react to create Calcium Carbonate that
gets locked in rocks
Releases Carbon Dioxide back into atmosphere:

• Respiration: organisms (marine or terrestrial) use
oxygen to generate energy from nutrients, and
release CO2 as a by-product
• Combustion or Fires: Fossil fuels, plants or any
carbon based material is burned and CO2 is released
• Decomposition: Decomposers feed on dead organic
matter and in the process break it down into CO2,
water and nutrients
• Volcanos*: Sequestered carbon in the Earth can be
released

8/25/2020
*Blue: The long term Carbon Cycle 25
Most of global GHGs emissions come from consuming energy
Total anthropogenic greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions (gigatonne of CO2-
equivalent per year, GtCO2-eq/yr) from
Energy producers economic sectors in 2010. The circle
shows the shares of direct GHG
Ag and land use changes emissions (in % of total anthropogenic
GHG emissions) from five economic
AFOLU = agriculture,
forestry and other land
sectors in 2010. The pull-out shows how
use shares of indirect CO2 emissions (in % of
total anthropogenic GHG emissions) from
~Industries consuming
purchased electricity
Onsite
electricity and heat production are
energy*
attributed to sectors of final energy use.
‘Other energy’ refers to all GHG emission
sources in the energy sector as defined
Mostly oil in WGIII Annex II, other than electricity
and heat production. The emission data
on AFOLU includes land-based CO2
Onsite emissions from forest fires, peat fires
energy* and peat decay that approximate to net
CO2 flux from the sub-sectors of forestry
and other land use (FOLU). Emissions are
* Emissions from energy used onsite that was not electricity purchased from the converted into CO2-equivalents based on
grid, which is in “indirect” (e.g., natural gas heating, onsite boilers, etc.) 100-year Global Warming Potential
(GWP100), taken from the IPCC Second
Assessment Report (SAR).

8/25/2020
From IPCC AR5
26
We are driving the changes in CO2
“Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have increased since the pre-industrial
era, driven largely by economic and population growth, and are now higher than ever.
This has led to atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous
oxide that are unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. Their effects, together
with those of other anthropogenic drivers, have been detected throughout the climate
system and are extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the observed
warming since the mid-20th century.” – IPCC AR5
Emissions of CO2
from fossil fuel
combustion and
industrial
processes
contributed about
78%
of the total GHG
emissions
increase from
1970 to 2010,

8/25/2020 27
Natural forcings alone cannot tell
Black: Observational estimates of global
the whole story mean surface temperature (black lines)
from the Hadley Centre/Climatic Research
Unit gridded surface temperature data set
4 (HadCRUT4), Goddard Institute for Space
Studies Surface Temperature Analysis
(GISTEMP), and Merged Land–Ocean
Surface Temperature Analysis (MLOST),
Red/Blue: model simulations (CMIP3

models and CMIP5 models
Top L: Models include natural forcings only
Bottom L: Models include anthropogenic

and natural forcings
Global average anomalies are shown with

respect to 1880–1919
Maps:
T: output of models only including natural
forcings (i.e., no emissions released from
humans)
M: Actual observed data
B: output of models including both natural

and human forcings

8/25/2020 28
Natural forcings alone cannot tell the whole
story
“It is extremely likely that
more than half of the
observed increase in global
average surface
temperature from 1951 to
2010 was caused by the
anthropogenic increase in
GHG concentrations and
other anthropogenic forcing
together” – IPCC, AR5

8/25/2020 29
Fossil fuels and land use changes increase
global CO2; that CO2 must go somewhere
Land use changes-

Change
The earth’s ability to
sequester carbon in
biomass. For example,
cropland sequesters less
carbon than old growth
forests.
Sinks for CO2 (i.e.

“portioning”) include the
ocean, soil/biomass, and
atmosphere.

8/25/2020 30
Atmospheric Concentration Growth Is
Emissions Minus Sinks

8/25/2020 31
CO2 has a lower CO2e per kg, but we emit a LOT of it, so our
emissions of CO2 today will continue to impact people in the
future
(Top) Global anthropogenic present-day emissions
weighted by the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and
the Global Temperature change Potential (GTP) for the
chosen time horizons. Year 2008 (single-year pulse)
emissions weighted by GWP, which is the global mean
radiative forcing (RF) per unit mass emitted integrated
over the indicated number of years relative to the
forcing from CO2 emissions, and GTP which estimates
the impact on global mean temperature based on the
temporal evolution of both RF and climate response
per unit mass emitted relative to the impact of CO2
emissions. The units are ‘CO2 equivalents’, which
reflects equivalence only in the impact parameter of
the chosen metric (integrated RF over the chosen time
horizon for GWP; temperature change at the chosen
point in time for GTP), given as Pg (CO2)eq (left axis)
and PgCeq (right axis).
(Bottom) The Absolute GTP (AGTP) as a function of

time multiplied by the present-day emissions of all
compounds from the indicated sectors is used to
estimate global mean temperature response (AGTP is
the same as GTP, except is not normalized by the
impact of CO2 emissions).
Image/Caption: IPCC AR5

8/25/2020 32
Core Samples Demonstrate Rapid Increases in
CO2, CH4 and N2O In Modern Times

8/25/2020 33
How do we know CO2 is from fossil-fuel
combustion?
• Count tons of coal, barrels of oil & cubic feet of gas
– Total emissions suggest ~500 ppm of CO2
• Baseline was 265 ppm pre-industrial revolution
– Oceans have taken up a lot of CO2, leaving ~400 ppm
• Type of CO2 has changed, in addition to amount
– fossil fuels are made of 60-100 million year-old plants
– plants prefer 12CO2 to 13CO2 for photosynthesis
– Atmospheric levels of 12C/13C have changed in
accordance with what we would expect for combustion
of old plants (e.g. fossil fuels)

8/25/2020 34
What effects have we already seen from climate
change that has occurred over the last century?

8/25/2020 35
The global land-only surface temperature for June
2019 was 1.3°C (2.4°F) above the 20th century
average.

8/25/2020 36
Warming is not experienced equally
Warming greater
than the global
annual average is
being experienced in
many land regions
and seasons,
including two to three
times higher in the
Arctic.
Warming is generally
higher over land than
over the ocean.

8/25/2020 37
As the oceans sequester more CO2, they
become more acidic, which has devastated
ecosystems

8/25/2020 38
Annual average ice mass from Arctic-wide
glaciers has decreased every year since 1984

8/25/2020 39
Summer sea ice is melting at unprecedented
rates
https://metro.co.uk/video/timelapse-video-
shows-arctic-sea-ice-melting-35-years-
2047840/?ito=vjs-link

8/25/2020 40
In 2019, the end of summer extent was tied with
2007 and 2016 as the 2nd lowest and the end of
winter extent was the 7th lowest in the satellite
record (1979-2019).
Below: Average monthly sea ice extent in March 2019

(left) and September 2019 (right) illustrate the
respective winter maximum and summer minimum
extents. The magenta line indicates the median ice
extents in March and September, respectively, during the
period 1981-2010. (NOAA.gov)

8/25/2020 41
Warm water stays on the surface as cold water
is more dense; a problem for ice
*Contributes to
postive feedback loops

8/25/2020 42
Sea level rise has been as much as 6-8 inches (15-20
centimeters) since the start of the satellite record in
1993
Why is sea level rising?
1) Glaciers and ice sheets are melting and
adding water to the ocean.
2) The volume of the ocean is expanding as
water warms.
3) [Much smaller contributor to sea level rise]
A decline in the amount of liquid water on
land—aquifers, lakes and reservoirs, rivers,
soil moisture– with some transfer to ocean
The light blue line shows seasonal (3-

month) sea level estimates from Church
and White (2011). [climate.gov]
8/25/2020 43
LA receives a large fraction of its water from
snowpack in the Sierra Nevadas
2013
2014

8/25/2020 44
As ice melts, sea level rises; as oceans warm,
they expand (adding to sea level rise)
“Global average sea levels are expected to

continue to rise—by at least several inches
in the next 15 years and by 1–4 feet by
2100. A rise of as much as 8 feet by 2100
cannot be ruled out.”- 2017 GCCR

8/25/2020 45
A study found that people currently living in areas at risk from a 3-foot rise in
sea levels owned $14 trillion in assets in 2011 (~20 percent of global GDP
that year)

8/25/2020 46
Climate Change: the wet regions to get wetter
and the dry regions will get dryer
• https://www.youtube
.com/watch?v=wAb
Muefx3oE#t=153

8/25/2020 47
Climate Change will
reduce water
availability in the West
and impact power
generation

8/25/2020 48
The Colorado River, serving water to 10% of the
US population (including LA), will shrink due to CC
• Expected reduction of
9% of water availability
by 2060
• Hot weather increases
water use
• Climate change impact
on the Colorado river will
be a 1.8 million acre-ft
deficit
– Deficit equal to the water
needs of 11 million
people
The Colorado River Aqueduct
(Wiki)
8/25/2020 49
Natural Disasters are
increasing, statistically
speaking…

8/25/2020 50
Climate change will affect human health
• Heat stress
• Higher temperatures can increase
salmonella and other food poisoning
• Heavy flooding exacerbates water-borne
disease
• Animal-borne diseases (Lyme Disease,
West Nile virus, Malaria)
• Exacerbates Ozone, Allergens, particulate
matter that has environmental and health
consequences
8/25/2020 51
From: New York
Times, 10/2015

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8/25/2020 53
Key insights from the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment
Report (AR 5)
“Human influence on the climate system is clear,
and recent anthropogenic emissions of
greenhouse gases are the highest in history.
Recent climate changes have had widespread
impacts on human and natural systems.” (AR5)
• Each of the last three decades has been
successively warmer at the Earth’s surface
than any preceding decade since 1850
• Period spanning 1983 to 2012 was likely the
warmest 30-year period of the last 1400
years in the Northern Hemisphere
• The globally averaged combined land and
ocean surface temperature data as
calculated by a linear trend show a warming
of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C over the period 1880
to 2012
• IPCC = International Panel on Climate

Change

8/25/2020 54
Key insights from the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment
Report (AR 5)
Since the beginning of the industrial era,
oceanic uptake of CO2 has resulted in
acidification of the ocean;
• the pH of ocean surface water has
decreased by 0.1 corresponding to a
26% increase in acidity
Ocean warming dominates the increase
in energy stored in the climate system,
accounting for more than 90% of the
energy accumulated between 1971 and
2010
• ocean warming is largest near the
surface, and the upper 75 m warmed
by 0.11 [0.09 to 0.13] °C per decade
over the period 1971 to 2010

8/25/2020 55
The consequences of climate change will have
large economic and social impacts
• Rising 2°F to 11.5°F by 2100 (1.1 - 6.4°C)
• Loss of sea ice → sea level rise (more water + warmer
water expands)
• Changes to precipitation patterns and agricultural yields
– More droughts and more floods
– Increase in extreme events
• Acidification of ocean will disrupt ecosystems
• Heat stress and disease (especially insect-carried) will
increase
– malaria and influenza will increase
• Higher temperatures and higher water vapor will
exacerbate air pollution in urban environments
(especially ozone and PM, which is dangerous for
human health)
8/25/2020 56
How do we predict how anthropogenic climate
change will impact us across the future?

8/25/2020 57
Scientists model
possible futures
through RCP
scenarios
• Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
are used for making projections based on :
population size, economic activity, lifestyle, energy
use, land use patterns, technology and climate
policy
• RCPs describe four different 21st century pathways
of GHG emissions and atmospheric concentrations,
air pollutant emissions and land use. The RCPs
include:
– a stringent mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), which is
representative of a scenario that aims to keep global
warming likely below 2°C above pre-industrial
temperatures.
– two intermediate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0)
– one scenario with very high GHG emissions (RCP8.5).
Scenarios without additional efforts to

8/25/2020 58
Why is this topic so controversial?

8/25/2020 59
Scientific Consensus?
• “Consensus as strong as
the one that has developed
around this topic is rare in
science”
– Dr. Donald Kennedy
Editor in Chief, Science
President Emeritus,
Stanford University
• “The scientific case for
global warming is
overwhelming.”
– Jim Giles, Nature
• Is there a debate about
whether warming is man-
made?
– “After extensive searches,
ABC News has found no
such debate.” [August 30,
2006]
Source: Fourth National Climate Assessment 2017 Report

8/25/2020 60
Climate change is a new kind of
environmental problem
• Climate change is unlike any other man-
induced environmental problem the world has
ever faced
• There is a vast geographic and generational
disparity between those who must take action
and those who will suffer the consequences
of inaction
• How do we tackle a problem that harms
people who live across the world and have
not been born, yet?
8/25/2020 61
We Fixed the Ozone Hole, What’s the Holdup
For Fixing Global Climate Change?
• Ozone Hole
– caused by specific gases
– few manufacturers
– substitutes were available
– ozone hole caused increases in skin cancer for white
people
• Global Climate Change
– caused by many sources
– no easy substitute for fossil fuels
– many manufacturers/emitters/producers
– mostly affects non-whites (climate racism?)

8/25/2020 62
How should the world address embedded CO2
emissions?
• Who pays for embedded CO2?
– the manufacturer?
– the consumer?
• By offshoring much of our manufacturing,
we have pushed our carbon emissions
elsewhere

8/25/2020 63
There Are Two Types of Different Policy Options:
Mitigation & Adaptation
• Mitigate: reduce emissions
– cap-and-trade
– carbon taxes
• Adapt: get ready for a new world
– Build levees and flood barriers
– Move to Minnesota

8/25/2020 64
Adaptation & mitigation goals can conflict
Good for Adaptation
Avoiding Deforestation
Desalination Efficiency, Building Codes
“Cool” Surfaces
Air Conditioning
Wind and Solar PV
Groundwater Pumping
Building Organic Soil
Drip Irrigation Reduce Food Waste & Meat Cons.
Dry-cooled power plants
Bad for Good for
Mitigation Mitigation
Biofuels
CSP & Geothermal

CCS Systems
Coal-fired Power Nuclear Power
Bad for Adaptation

8/25/2020 65
Paris 2015: The 21st Conference of the Parties
(COP) to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change
• Held in Paris in December 2015
• Focuses on “bottoms up” rather than “top down” agreements
• Ratified November 4th 2016; Trump elected 4 days later and
later to pull out
• Paris COP seeks to have every member country (195 in total)
submit its own “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution
(INDC)” to keep temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius
above 1990 levels
• Track INDCs at: http://cait.wri.org/indc/#/map

8/25/2020 66
The Big Picture About Global Climate Change
• The potential downsides are VERY severe
– changes civilization
• Data for temperatures, CO2 concentrations, and the
greenhouse effect are well understood
• Historical human contributions are pretty well understood
• Little scientific evidence that contradicts global climate
change
• The uncertainties are very large
– Especially for the predictive models of what happens
next
• The world cannot tackle climate change without active
involvement and leadership from the U.S.
8/25/2020 67
Kelly T. Sanders
Associate Professor of Civil and Environment Engineering
ktsanders@gmail.com

FA2020 - ENE505 - L1 - Climate Change

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Global Climate Change

August 25, 2020

1. The Sun emits shortwave solar radiation to earth.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

So our total energy balance:

Energy emitted from surface

For a system in balance:

Incoming Energy from sun: 341.3 W·m-2 (A)

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

– C: ~78 W·m-2 in the near ultraviolet,

Slight net absorption due to greenhouse

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Temperature change because of 20 °C

Tiny by percentage but

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

• Greenhouse gases have warming

• Aerosols and clouds can produce

Figure (from IPCC AR5):

Radiative forcing estimates in 2011 relative to

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

• CO2 Emissions: self-explanatory

• But how do we compare greenhouse

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Need to specify the time period warming potential is

Examples (source: EPA.gov):

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

• Ice core data reveal a tight

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

445 86% Climate Change driven by GHGs. Ice sheets

359-380 75% over Climate change, possibly linked to the

252 96% over Climate Change driven by GHGs from Siberian

201 80% Climate Change driven by GHGs from Volcanos in

66 75% Astroid (end of dinosaurs event), but hotly

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Releases Carbon Dioxide back into atmosphere:

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Red/Blue: model simulations (CMIP3

Top L: Models include natural forcings only

Bottom L: Models include anthropogenic

Global average anomalies are shown with

M: Actual observed data

B: output of models including both natural

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Land use changes-

Sinks for CO2 (i.e.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

(Bottom) The Absolute GTP (AGTP) as a function of

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.